Staying competitive on road will payoff

[NewJerseyHawk]

We are a week away from being halfway through the conference slate and fans have to be more aware of what's actually being looked at.

In reality, RU despite what many are still reluctant to State today, is the best basketball program it's been in a long time, best in the tristate area and improving each week.

But what about winning on the road, you may ask??

As we move forward and move the proverbial goalposts, the 5 biggest goals this program had to accomplish at the start of this season, have all been solved.

A) Establish the RAC as a tough place to play....this has been and must remain THE focus of the fanbase, players and program. I am not saying this lightly but you cannot become an NCAA caliber program until you clean up your room, so to speak.....that means becoming what the fans have elevated this program to.

B) Becoming more balanced offensively...mission accomplished

C) establish the ability to become a system program, not a player reliant program. We have players that fit and roles that are defined. Winning programs are able to replace players fitting roles, more than individual talent.

D) Ability to defend, road or away.....the concept that "Defense travels", is true. And we lost Jay Young and Eugene, but Coach Knight has done a great job selling his own concepts and Pike has allowed that growth to happen. We don't have elite athletes from guard to center, but we play within our means, by using the length and arms to defend.

E) the final and most important concept is cutting down the margin of defeat on the road, against similar to better competition.

There are going to be comments for 20 seconds on TV that will say "RU is blah blah away from the RAC"....which is a compliment that says we are good enough to beat anyone at home AND you have to play well when we visit as a road team.

The scoring margins last year away

25 at Purdue
18 at Minnesota
11 at MSU
16 at Indiana
14 at Ohio State

Yes there were some home games that were ugly, like 16 points to Maryland, 12 to Michigan.

But folks need to understand we are 10 to 12 points better across the board from last year to this year.

There will be a clunker tossed in somewhere in a 20 game slate, but so far, losing by 3 at Illinois and having a tying layup to make it 81-81 @ Iowa, is far different than where we were last year.

As long as we are able to win at home and stay within range on the road, we will get the road wins we are looking for.

I am not sure where it will be, but the longer you stay in games late, the more likelihood is, you get those to go your way.

 

[RU82]

Two road games in a row we’ve been tied or had the lead in the last two minutes and couldn’t close it out. We need a go-to guy.

 

[newell138]

Two road games in a row we’ve been tied or had the lead in the last two minutes and couldn’t close it out. We need a go-to guy.

or just make free throws!

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

point D is still a legitimate concern. That was not remotely the same defensive team we see at the RAC.

I don't think having defense travel in an airplane at the same intensity is reasonable.

100% with all the other points

 

[RUJMM78]

Rutgers isn't the best basketball program in the tristate area.Villanova and Seton Hall would strongly disagree.Rutgers has made tremendous improvement with a 13-0 home record and the league losses on the road are by closer margins.There still is improvement required where Rutgers wins road games against league opponents that are deemed equal to or better than Rutgers.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Rutgers isn't the best basketball program in the tristate area.Villanova and Seton Hall would strongly disagree.Rutgers has made tremendous improvement with a 13-0 home record and the league losses on the road are by closer margins.There still is improvement required where Rutgers wins road games against league opponents that are deemed equal to or better than Rutgers.

These are opinions based on a neutral court as of today, not what used to be.

Find the road games at 3 currently ranked opponents for a lot of programs and there aren't a lot of them. Do I think SHU or Nova perform significantly better at Michigan State Illinois or Iowa in late January 2020 vs what RU has done?? I am not seeing anything substantial separation right now.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

point D is still a legitimate concern. That was not remotely the same defensive team we see at the RAC.

I don't think having defense travel in an airplane at the same intensity is reasonable.

100% with all the other points

The last thing I am worried about with this program is defense right now.

It's a very balanced NCAA field right now and every program has question marks. The better ones have fewer than others, but outside of MSU, I can find red flags with every other B1G program that's projected to make the NCAA discussion. Why is RU worse than the question marks elsewhere??

Iowa played the best game they've played this season IMO. That offense isn't sustainable over 20+ games, when they don't hit shots, they lose at home to DePaul and at Nebraska.

It's very hard to digest for skeptical RU fans, but you have to compare or ask what other program has made this amount of progress from 1 year at this time to now.

RU started 1-6 in the B1G last year and has taken huge steps forward this year. There aren't more than 2 B1G programs I am comfortable in saying are with fewer questions than RU.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I agree 95% of what you say normally. You have to be VERY worried about our defense, especially when it is our identity. Defense is not going to be there every day in a 20 game B1G schedule.

If Marcus Carr is watching this game he has to wonder why him. Young and Mathis were not disruptive at all (especially 1st 30 minutes)

2:25 left Rutgers is up by 1. If Ron Harper just boxes out on the FT line we have possession up 1 with 2 minutes left. Not boxing out on the free throw line or seeing Joe Touisaint diving on the floor while Caleb McConnell is bending down picking up the ball doesnt happen at the RAC. Pikiel at the 17 minute mark in 1st half subbing everyone out and keeping Mathis in (with Young) showed Pike was concerned.

The silver lining is we are getting better offensively.

 

[ScarletNut]

Close games can go either way, especially on the road. The outcome may have been different if we shot FT's better. I know the box score shows we shot as well as Iowa did but we miss too many front ends of 1 and 1's and it makes a difference in tight games. All things being equal and unchanged last night, our FT shooting was the difference. We all knew it would bite us in the ass eventually.

 

[RU-ROCS]

We are a week away from being halfway through the conference slate and fans have to be more aware of what's actually being looked at.

In reality, RU despite what many are still reluctant to State today, is the best basketball program it's been in a long time, best in the tristate area and improving each week.

But what about winning on the road, you may ask??

As we move forward and move the proverbial goalposts, the 5 biggest goals this program had to accomplish at the start of this season, have all been solved.

A) Establish the RAC as a tough place to play....this has been and must remain THE focus of the fanbase, players and program. I am not saying this lightly but you cannot become an NCAA caliber program until you clean up your room, so to speak.....that means becoming what the fans have elevated this program to.

B) Becoming more balanced offensively...mission accomplished

C) establish the ability to become a system program, not a player reliant program. We have players that fit and roles that are defined. Winning programs are able to replace players fitting roles, more than individual talent.

D) Ability to defend, road or away.....the concept that "Defense travels", is true. And we lost Jay Young and Eugene, but Coach Knight has done a great job selling his own concepts and Pike has allowed that growth to happen. We don't have elite athletes from guard to center, but we play within our means, by using the length and arms to defend.

E) the final and most important concept is cutting down the margin of defeat on the road, against similar to better competition.

There are going to be comments for 20 seconds on TV that will say "RU is blah blah away from the RAC"....which is a compliment that says we are good enough to beat anyone at home AND you have to play well when we visit as a road team.

The scoring margins last year away

25 at Purdue
18 at Minnesota
11 at MSU
16 at Indiana
14 at Ohio State

Yes there were some home games that were ugly, like 16 points to Maryland, 12 to Michigan.

But folks need to understand we are 10 to 12 points better across the board from last year to this year.

There will be a clunker tossed in somewhere in a 20 game slate, but so far, losing by 3 at Illinois and having a tying layup to make it 81-81 @ Iowa, is far different than where we were last year.

As long as we are able to win at home and stay within range on the road, we will get the road wins we are looking for.

I am not sure where it will be, but the longer you stay in games late, the more likelihood is, you get those to go your way.

Good post. Just hope the clunker is not against Nebraska on Saturday. Need to get the momentum back right away and protect home court.

 

[RU848789]

A loss is obviously worse than a win, but the silver lining could be that it causes the team to refocus a bit (especially if they were reading too many glowing press "clippings") and come out strong the next few games. We really need to win the next two at home against NE/Purdue and then beat an underperforming but talented Michigan team (especially if they get Livers back) at what will almost be a home game.

 

[bac2therac]

will need a road win, it will come

 

[Upstream]

will need a road win, it will come

Would a win at MSG help as a neutral court win, or would it be viewed as essentially a home win?

With only 5 more opportunities for a true road win, all tough games at Maryland, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Purdue, I am not so confident that a road win will come. (I guess the good news is that the Bart ratings only give us a 7% chance of losing all 5.)

 

[koko2315]

last year's team would have likely let it get out of control early in 2H once they stretched to a 10pt lead. This team was not just competitive, but they actually flashed in and almost stole a game in which they were down very late on the road. Win probablity chart here: https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game?gameId=401166183

 

[bac2therac]

Would a win at MSG help as a neutral court win, or would it be viewed as essentially a home win?

With only 5 more opportunities for a true road win, all tough games at Maryland, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Purdue, I am not so confident that a road win will come. (I guess the good news is that the Bart ratings only give us a 7% chance of losing all 5.)

while not a true road win, its neutral site win, it still shows RU can win away from the RAC but personally if I had the choice between Michigan at MSG or at Penn State I would take Penn State

 

[bac2therac]

last year's team would have likely let it get out of control early in 2H once they stretched to a 10pt lead. This team was not just competitive, but they actually flashed in and almost stole a game in which they were down very late on the road. Win probablity chart here: https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game?gameId=401166183

when RU got down 10 and I think Iowa had the ball, I thought oh boy here comes a blowout. It was the perfect time for Old Rutgers to collapse and losing by 15-20 points. That despite playing so disjointed on both ends all game they were opportunistic enough to cut a 9 point defecit to a 1 point lead shows things are so much different this year.

 

[Randal7]

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/recap?gameId=401166183

POLL IMPLICATIONS
Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights, ranked for the first time since 1979, should stay in the AP Top 25, especially with a win on Saturday against Nebraska.

 

[RUby RED]

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

View embedded media

3 years....LOL....

If the B1G stays at over 75% home teams winning, there will be multiple B1G teams far under 5 neutral or road wins in the NCAAs. Every game lands in Quad 1 or Quad 2 category in 18 out of 21 B1G games (counting 1 game in Indianapolis for the tournament.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

I agree 95% of what you say normally. You have to be VERY worried about our defense, especially when it is our identity. Defense is not going to be there every day in a 20 game B1G schedule.

If Marcus Carr is watching this game he has to wonder why him. Young and Mathis were not disruptive at all (especially 1st 30 minutes)

2:25 left Rutgers is up by 1. If Ron Harper just boxes out on the FT line we have possession up 1 with 2 minutes left. Not boxing out on the free throw line or seeing Joe Touisaint diving on the floor while Caleb McConnell is bending down picking up the ball doesnt happen at the RAC. Pikiel at the 17 minute mark in 1st half subbing everyone out and keeping Mathis in (with Young) showed Pike was concerned.

The silver lining is we are getting better offensively.

You picked out 3 plays in 40 minutes to find fault. Iowa made 3 bad plays in under 30 seconds with a lead and the ball.

Failure to inbound ball on a press

Failure to make a pass stolen by Jacob Young

Allowed 3 point play to Harper, after Young attacked the defense.

Iowa played a good game, and they're an unusually efficient offense in general but comparing Iowa in their arena, to a typical offense around college basketball, isn't a good idea. If they are 3rd in all of CBB overall, my guess is they're probably 1st overall if you removed road or neutral games from their stat line.

RU played very well on defense, despite what the numbers or score turned out to be. Teams make shots sometimes, it was their day for 32 minutes and if not for the "poor" defense we apparently played, they wouldn't been held without a basket for 7 minutes.

 

[bac2therac]

the Big 10 tourney would count as a road/neutral win so getting one there is a help.

the issue I bring up about tougher schedule is to show how avoiding playing in early season tourney is stupid..early season tourneys can give you 2 or 3 neutral site opportunities to win...if you have a pulse you can pick up 1. The St Bonnies loss is a bad one because its not particularly a good team and we could have dispelled some notions we do not win on the road by winning that game.

whether Hawk wants to admit or not. 1-11 or even 2-10 on the road is a huge red flag. Red flags on resumes give he selection committee the option if they wish to justify snubbing a school even if other metrics are strong. NC State had a net of like 32 last year but the OOC schedule was horrific and that was justification for leaving them out.

Not saying RU wouldnt make it at 2-10 because they would have other strong parts to their resume but it means you sort of have given control to the committee rather than have things in your own hands. Not to mention it means you have make sure you really go 10-0 at home (giving RU 1 Big 10 tourney road win to get to 2-10)

so the quicker RU can get the road win the better and less pressure. Seeing how RU competed in its first 4 conference road games including dominating Nebby I am pretty confident that we will get one. The 3 losses are against the top 3 schools in league.

 

[RUsince52]

when RU got down 10 and I think Iowa had the ball, I thought oh boy here comes a blowout. It was the perfect time for Old Rutgers to collapse and losing by 15-20 points. That despite playing so disjointed on both ends all game they were opportunistic enough to cut a 9 point defecit to a 1 point lead shows things are so much different this year.

Many times it comes down to when you make a big basket too. It gives the team a little extra energy on defense to get the ball back. We just couldn't make the extra play in crunch time and that's why it ended up a 5 point loss instead of one possession game. Young's missed layup was huge at the time because he accomplished the difficult part of getting through traffic to the rim, but couldn't put the shot up softly enough for it to drop. Not our night, but a great job of fighting back to take the lead. It will help us later in the season as a lesson learned.

 

[richthedentist]

I agree 95% of what you say normally. You have to be VERY worried about our defense, especially when it is our identity. Defense is not going to be there every day in a 20 game B1G schedule.

If Marcus Carr is watching this game he has to wonder why him. Young and Mathis were not disruptive at all (especially 1st 30 minutes)

2:25 left Rutgers is up by 1. If Ron Harper just boxes out on the FT line we have possession up 1 with 2 minutes left. Not boxing out on the free throw line or seeing Joe Touisaint diving on the floor while Caleb McConnell is bending down picking up the ball doesnt happen at the RAC. Pikiel at the 17 minute mark in 1st half subbing everyone out and keeping Mathis in (with Young) showed Pike was concerned.

The silver lining is we are getting better offensively.

I am not sure how you can be so worried about our defense first of all the refs absolutely killed us at the start of the second half when they called 7 fouls on us in the first five minutes so hard to play defense when everything is a foul against you and nothing against Iowa;
Second we held them without a basket from the 10:25 mark til 2:16 left in the second half that is over 8 minutes without a basket I would call that pretty good defense the only thing of course was the refs calling fouls and getting them to the free throw line

 

[ScarletDave]

Our losses on the road are to teams 1-2-3 in the Big Ten. When we get to play teams 5-14 let’s see how we do

 

[goru7]

point D is still a legitimate concern. That was not remotely the same defensive team we see at the RAC.

I don't think having defense travel in an airplane at the same intensity is reasonable.

100% with all the other points

Not fair Greene. They played a poor C type defensive game last night for 30 minutes but Illinois was the best defensive effort of the year and Michigan State was pretty damn good except for a guy named Winston.

 

[bac2therac]

Our losses on the road are to teams 1-2-3 in the Big Ten. When we get to play teams 5-14 let’s see how we do

we beat 13

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

You picked out 3 plays in 40 minutes to find fault. Iowa made 3 bad plays in under 30 seconds with a lead and the ball.

Failure to inbound ball on a press

Failure to make a pass stolen by Jacob Young

Allowed 3 point play to Harper, after Young attacked the defense.

Iowa played a good game, and they're an unusually efficient offense in general but comparing Iowa in their arena, to a typical offense around college basketball, isn't a good idea. If they are 3rd in all of CBB overall, my guess is they're probably 1st overall if you removed road or neutral games from their stat line.

RU played very well on defense, despite what the numbers or score turned out to be. Teams make shots sometimes, it was their day for 32 minutes and if not for the "poor" defense we apparently played, they wouldn't been held without a basket for 7 minutes.

Rutgers did not play very well on defense.

To me it isn't about Iowa.....if i were an Iowa fan there would be many things I saw i would take issue with.

It is totally understandable that Rutgers wouldnt be 100% fresh after a fantastic effort vs. Minnesota and then hoping in a plane and traveling 1/2 way across the country to a snowy Iowa

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

the Big 10 tourney would count as a road/neutral win so getting one there is a help.

the issue I bring up about tougher schedule is to show how avoiding playing in early season tourney is stupid..early season tourneys can give you 2 or 3 neutral site opportunities to win...if you have a pulse you can pick up 1. The St Bonnies loss is a bad one because its not particularly a good team and we could have dispelled some notions we do not win on the road by winning that game.

whether Hawk wants to admit or not. 1-11 or even 2-10 on the road is a huge red flag. Red flags on resumes give he selection committee the option if they wish to justify snubbing a school even if other metrics are strong. NC State had a net of like 32 last year but the OOC schedule was horrific and that was justification for leaving them out.

Not saying RU wouldnt make it at 2-10 because they would have other strong parts to their resume but it means you sort of have given control to the committee rather than have things in your own hands. Not to mention it means you have make sure you really go 10-0 at home (giving RU 1 Big 10 tourney road win to get to 2-10)

so the quicker RU can get the road win the better and less pressure. Seeing how RU competed in its first 4 conference road games including dominating Nebby I am pretty confident that we will get one. The 3 losses are against the top 3 schools in league.

I don't agree and you have to evaluate every season as it's own entity. Part of that is evaluate where the program is AND use Minnesota as your example of scheduling up.

Maybe Minnesota is better than Rutgers but they've played the proverbial schedule you fawn over. And if you started counting bids today, they are out....they have 8 losses before the end of January and have to go to Ohio State tonight.

At some point, chasing these road wins in a normal season, fine, you can say our schedule is too soft.

This is NOT a normal B1G season, last year was also NOT a normal season
..Indiana was 1 win away from making the dance and I think they had 14 losses.

There's common sense and then figure out if Rutgers would be ranked today with 7 losses and a much tougher schedule.??

The RU program with 3 road wins last year...one vs a ranked opponent and 2 with unranked teams under .500.

Now we play 18 Q1/Q2 games in league and have not only win but win 2 to 3 on the road??

Is Illinois Maryland Michigan at home, really a walkover, where RU isn't going to have to play well??

You either watch the games home or away and say, "is this a NCAA team"??

If you need Garza to miss a couple of shots last night, so RU wins last night to convince you then not sure what to tell you.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Not fair Greene. They played a poor C type defensive game last night for 30 minutes but Illinois was the best defensive effort of the year and Michigan State was pretty damn good except for a guy named Winston.

54 points allowed to Illinois in 64 possessions ON THE ROAD was very good. Thanks for the reminder.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

In our rooting interest maybe watching home teams win isn't bad if in fact we ended up 2-8 on the road. It would be more "normal" to go 9-1 2-8 11-9

 

[goru7]

54 points allowed to Illinois in 64 possessions ON THE ROAD was very good. Thanks for the reminder.

You forget what you watch. Illinois , Michigan State, Seton Hall first half and probably all game, Minnesota for about 35 minutes , Indiana all game, Nebraska all game , Wisconsin all game. Elite elite defense. You then have the nerve to pick on a bad 30 minutes last night that our best defensive players didn’t play great defense and forget everything else they have done. You are one tough critic , like a NYTimes theatre critic.
I do give you a little credit as you were impressed with the offensive efficiency numbers the last few games , so not 100 negative only 90 %. Lol!,,

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

You forget what you watch. Illinois , Michigan State, Seton Hall first half and probably all game, Minnesota for about 35 minutes , Indiana all game, Nebraska all game , Wisconsin all game. Elite elite defense. You then have the nerve to pick on a bad 30 minutes last night that our best defensive players didn’t play great defense and forget everything else they have done. You are one tough critic , like a NYTimes theatre critic.
I do give you a little credit as you were impressed with the offensive efficiency numbers the last few games , so not 100 negative only 90 %. Lol!,,

my concern is
1. defense on the road
2. having legs to play D throughout a long season

I think I have made it abundantly clear our defense has been outstanding and elite. I used the V word........Virginia.

 

[kapyoche]

RU has to win 80% of home games and 50% of away games in BIG.

 

[Degaz-RU]

After 9-2 OOC, if we hold serve at the RAC by going 9-1 in league (I think we will stub our toe against somebody), I think we get in the NCAA tourney by only going 2-8 on the road -- so only one more road win -- and then going at least 1-1 in the B1G tournament. That would be a 21-12 record, and I suspect our NET would be somewhere around #30.

That said, I would feel much more comfortable if we (A) go undefeated at home; and (B) win TWO more road games, to end up 3-7 on the road in league. Even just going 1-1 in the B1G tourney, that's a 23-10 record, and I can't see the committee leaving us out at that point, especially if our defensive metrics continue to be top 10-20 in the country.

 

[goru7]

my concern is
1. defense on the road
2. having legs to play D throughout a long season

I think I have made it abundantly clear our defense has been outstanding and elite. I used the V word........Virginia.

Michigan State and Illinois and Nebraska were on the road as was the 10 minutes late in the second half last night. Legs are not a worry with the 3 days between games and the 9 and sometimes 10 man lineup. No one is consistently playing 30-35 minutes.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Michigan State and Illinois and Nebraska were on the road as was the 10 minutes late in the second half last night. Legs are not a worry with the 3 days between games and the 9 and sometimes 10 man lineup. No one is consistently playing 30-35 minutes.

I disagree, legs can be a worry AND the freshman wall is a real thing.

 

[RU848789]

RU has to win 80% of home games and 50% of away games in BIG, in order to finish at 22-9/13-7 and get a 4/5 seed, depending on how we do in the B1G tourney.

FIFY.

 

[goru7]

I disagree, legs can be a worry AND the freshman wall is a real thing.

I do think the 20 game Big 10 grind with the top 12 teams being Quad 1 or 2 games causes fatigue. Whether that is physical, where we have no legs, or mental, where we were not sharp all night. No evidence of that fro Ron , Akwasi or Myles and did not see that from Tez, Caleb or Jacob either. Just thought Jacob and others got beat by Touissant most of the night not because of their legs but were out played.

 

[bac2therac]

I don't agree and you have to evaluate every season as it's own entity. Part of that is evaluate where the program is AND use Minnesota as your example of scheduling up.

Maybe Minnesota is better than Rutgers but they've played the proverbial schedule you fawn over. And if you started counting bids today, they are out....they have 8 losses before the end of January and have to go to Ohio State tonight.

At some point, chasing these road wins in a normal season, fine, you can say our schedule is too soft.

This is NOT a normal B1G season, last year was also NOT a normal season
..Indiana was 1 win away from making the dance and I think they had 14 losses.

There's common sense and then figure out if Rutgers would be ranked today with 7 losses and a much tougher schedule.??

The RU program with 3 road wins last year...one vs a ranked opponent and 2 with unranked teams under .500.

Now we play 18 Q1/Q2 games in league and have not only win but win 2 to 3 on the road??

Is Illinois Maryland Michigan at home, really a walkover, where RU isn't going to have to play well??

You either watch the games home or away and say, "is this a NCAA team"??

If you need Garza to miss a couple of shots last night, so RU wins last night to convince you then not sure what to tell you.

Are you still refuting that 1-11 does not put us in a good spot. Yes or no. I want make it clearly i am strictly arguing ncaa committee criteria and metrics

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I do think the 20 game Big 10 grind with the top 12 teams being Quad 1 or 2 games causes fatigue. Whether that is physical, where we have no legs, or mental, where we were not sharp all night. No evidence of that fro Ron , Akwasi or Myles and did not see that from Tez, Caleb or Jacob either. Just thought Jacob and others got beat by Touissant most of the night not because of their legs but were out played.

I'd argue Ron boxes out with 2 minutes left, but we never know.

We did also miss quite a few front rim outside shots, but that might not be out of the ordinary. To me we looked sluggish most of the game....and i think that is a testament to our team only losing by 5 when I thought we really didnt have it. Thought we were playing on fumes.