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THE OFFICIAL 2022-2023 RUTGERS BASKETBALL PREDICTION THREAD

ru66 said:
How bac can offer "expert" teatimony when no one has played other than an exhibition game shows the meaningless of these opinions.
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In fairness to BAC the consensus has B1G down and B1G has lost a lot to graduation. As of November 1 B1G lacks good teams at the top. Will a few emerge and will teams 9-14 end up being decent will be the key to how B1G will perform. Right now it looks like B10 and SEC are on paper looking better AND ACC does have Duke and UNC at top looking good.

Nothing happens on November 1st though.
 
Greene Rice FIG said:
In fairness to BAC the consensus has B1G down and B1G has lost a lot to graduation. As of November 1 B1G lacks good teams at the top. Will a few emerge and will teams 9-14 end up being decent will be the key to how B1G will perform. Right now it looks like B10 and SEC are on paper looking better AND ACC does have Duke and UNC at top looking good.

Nothing happens on November 1st though.
Click to expand...
Even those in the consensus , if honest, would say their opinions are meaningless until games are played. It's just an exercise in futility and just gives fans more ammo to bitch if a team doesn't meet their expectations. My point is none of these predictions are really meaningful at this time and if we lose more than predicted these guys go nuts. Remember Pike being attacked for his pre season statements last year??
 
bac2therac said:
  • Nov. 7 Columbia W 1-0
  • Nov. 10 Sacred Heart W 2-0
  • Nov. 12 UMass-Lowell W 3-0
  • Nov. 18 vs. Temple at Mohegan Sun Arena, Conn. W 4-0
  • Nov. 22 Rider W 5-0
  • Nov. 26 Central Connecticut State W 6-0
  • Nov. 30 at Miami (Big Ten-ACC Challenge) L 6-1
  • Dec. 3. Indiana L 6-2/0-1
  • Dec. 8 at Ohio State L 6-3/0-2
  • Dec. 11 Seton Hall W 7-3
  • Dec. 17 Wake Forest W 8-3
  • Dec. 23 Bucknell W 9-3
  • Dec. 30 Coppin State W 10-3
  • Jan. 2 at Purdue L 10-4/0-3
  • Jan. 5 Maryland W 11-4/1-3
  • Jan. 8 Iowa W 12-4/2-3
  • Jan. 11 at Northwestern W 13-4/3-3
  • Jan. 15 Ohio State W 14-4/4-3
  • Jan. 19 at Michigan State L 14-5/4-4
  • Jan. 24 Penn State W 15-5/5-4
  • Jan. 29 at Iowa L 15-6/5-5
  • Feb. 1 Minnesota W 16-6/6-5
  • Feb. 4 vs. Michigan State at Madison Square Garden W 17-6/7-5
  • Feb. 7 at Indiana L 17-7/7-6
  • Feb. 11 at Illinois L 17-8/7-7
  • Feb. 14 Nebraska W 18-8/8-7
  • Feb. 18 at Wisconsin L 18-9/8-8
  • Feb. 23 Michigan W 19-9/9-8
  • Feb. 26 at Penn State L 19-10/9-9
  • March 2 at Minnesota W 20-10/10-9
  • March 5 Northwestern W 21-10/11-9
Big 10 tournament 2nd round: 6 Rutgers vs 11 Ohio State W 22-10
Big 10 tournament Quarterfinals: 6 Rutgers vs 3 Purdue L 22-11

Final Regular Season: 22-11
Big 10 Regular Season: 11-9


Rutgers will have a lack of wins vs teams in the field, perhaps only 1 or 2. Their 6th place finish and 11-9 looks good on paper but will be filled with mediocrity. Wins vs SHU, Wake and Temple OOC will not be looked at as real quality wins. The SOS will become an issue again and unlike other years where RU had strong net wins vs top 25 and 50, not so much this year. Miami offers the best shot at a OOC win. Id trade a win there with a loss to Wake at home. I think RU avoids the WTF loss this season and if there was ever a season to avoid one it would be this season. I think the Big 10 is down and it will show. 11-9 is not your older brothers Big 10 11-9. RU will need to close out its final 4 games very strong. Sweating it out once again. RU even with the gaudy 22-10 record will be one of the last selected schools in the tournament and play in the first four vs USC

NCAA tourney first four: 11 Rutgers vs 11 USC W 23-11
NCAA 2nd round: 11 Rutgers vs 6 Dayton L 23-12
Click to expand...
No more First Four! Either in or out. :)
 
kyk1827 said:
8-3 OOC
8-12 B1G
16-15
Not enough athletes will hurt us on D imo and thats what this program has been built on
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Curious what your basing the D comment on? You can’t take much away on offense from an exhibition game but defense is a different story. Only the fans who focus exclusively on offense didn’t recognize how far Jones had to go to become effective on the other end in OOC games. It was clear from day 1. Hyatt too - and he still looked weak to me defending in the backcourt in the Fairfield game. Every other player looked solid to me - which I took as a good early sign. Fairfield scores at least 10 less points if Hyatt’s time at the 3 is cut in half.
 
Somewhere between meaningless and worth reading has always been my goal.
9-2 OOC
12-8 Big Ten
21-10 regular season
1-1 B1G Tourney
1-1 NCAA

One of the new guys will be our leading scorer.
 
PSAL_Hoops said:
Curious what your basing the D comment on? You can’t take much away on offense from an exhibition game but defense is a different story. Only the fans who focus exclusively on offense didn’t recognize how far Jones had to go to become effective on the other end in OOC games. It was clear from day 1. Hyatt too - and he still looked weak to me defending in the backcourt in the Fairfield game. Every other player looked solid to me - which I took as a good early sign. Fairfield scores at least 10 less points if Hyatt’s time at the 3 is cut in half.
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It's Paul and Cam's lateral quickness defending the perimeter that is the concern. Smaller quicker guards should be able to penetrate against us.

Cam's D looked pretty good. Overall he has quick hands and plays the passing lane extremely well. Reads the game. He's a bit quicker than he looks. His style is to look calm and slow and then he darts in quickly with the change of pace surprsing players

Still have some concern about it but I think what Cam brings in help D and offense will be a bet positive.

We have Simpson and Miller who both have all the quickness we need if it's too much of a problem and potentially see some zone. Pike has some options if it's an issue
 
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Greene Rice FIG said:
In fairness to BAC the consensus has B1G down and B1G has lost a lot to graduation. As of November 1 B1G lacks good teams at the top. Will a few emerge and will teams 9-14 end up being decent will be the key to how B1G will perform. Right now it looks like B10 and SEC are on paper looking better AND ACC does have Duke and UNC at top looking good.

Nothing happens on November 1st though.
Click to expand...
You have the B1G down yet Rutgers down even further

One day you'll trust Pike. One day....
 
Scangg said:
You have the B1G down yet Rutgers down even further

One day you'll trust Pike. One day....
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I don't have the B1G down...Just quoting what others and computers are saying.

My prediction is only 1 1/2 game lower than last year despite losing Harper and Geo. That is complete trust in Pike.
 
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Losing Ron and Geo will hurt beyond PPG and we have a few unknowns, including Caleb’s knee, which should be fine long term, but you never know. What can the young guys contribute? Can Cam produce and keep up in a much more athletic league? Outside shooting a concern until it’s not.

Calling for 16-15 (8-12).
 
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It would be more concerning if we lost Geo and Ron and were relying on true freshman replacing them, but that's not the case

Spencer lead his conference in scoring and is a lights out 3 point shooter. He will be more efficient than Geo who was only a career 32% shooter from 3

Mag has been in the program for years and is oozing with talent. The breakout is here. He also brings more speed quickness height and athleticism to the 4

We also get the rest of the team with a year more of development. Cliff's evolution completely changes everything as he looks to be a much stronger overall player offensively
 
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I want to see Spencer do it in the Temple/Miami/Wake/SHU games.

The other non conference games won't show us much of anything. Don't make any dumb mistakes, figure out the rotations, and get the bench some experience.
 
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7-0 vs Columbia/Sacred Heart/UML/Rider/CCSU/Bucknell/Coppin (could see Rider keeping it close but the rest I think we stroll through)

2-0 vs SHU/Wake with home court advantage

1-1 vs Temple/Miami (the Temple game worries me a little)

11-9 in conference

21-10 overall, 22-11 after the B1G tournament

10 seed in the NCAA tournament
 
bac2therac said:
GRF prediction is entirely reasonable if the underclassmen are not ready to take the next step up. Ron and Geo are big losses
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Over the past 3 years we have played a ton of games where the game was decided in the last 2 minutes. With the exception of one game late during Paul's 4-5 game amazing run EVERY TIME the game was on the line it was Geo and Ron to a lesser extent.

I'll listen and respect any arguement that says we can replace guys in the 1st 38 minutes of games. I am scared to death of what happens in a close game. Last year our record would have been 10-19 if games were decided by the average score margin through out the game. We had the ability to turn it on when needed.
 
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20-11/10-10
We endure two 3 game losing streaks during the year but finish the season strong with 4 straight wins plus 2 in the B10 tourney to go 22-12 and get a 10 seed in NCAA.
 
Section114 said:
20-11/10-10
We endure two 3 game losing streaks during the year but finish the season strong with 4 straight wins plus 2 in the B10 tourney to go 22-12 and get a 10 seed in NCAA.
Click to expand...
I thing that has been a constant over the past 3 years. Multiple stretches per year where we look like trash and 90% of fans lose hope.......this in the middle of 3 NCAA seasons.
 
bac2therac said:
  • W - Nov. 7 Columbia
  • W - Nov. 10 Sacred Heart
  • W - Nov. 12 UMass-Lowell
  • L - Nov. 18 vs. Temple at Mohegan Sun Arena, Conn.
  • W - Nov. 22 Rider
  • W - Nov. 26 Central Connecticut State
  • L - Nov. 30 at Miami (Big Ten-ACC Challenge)
  • W - Dec. 3. Indiana
  • L - Dec. 8 at Ohio State
  • W - Dec. 11 Seton Hall
  • W - Dec. 17 Wake Forest
  • W- Dec. 23 Bucknell
  • W -Dec. 30 Coppin State
  • L - Jan. 2 at Purdue
  • L - Jan. 5 Maryland
  • W- Jan. 8 Iowa
  • W- Jan. 11 at Northwestern
  • L - Jan. 15 Ohio State
  • L - Jan. 19 at Michigan State
  • W- Jan. 24 Penn State
  • L - an. 29 at Iowa
  • W- Feb. 1 Minnesota
  • L -Feb. 4 vs. Michigan State at Madison Square Garden
  • L - Feb. 7 at Indiana
  • W- Feb. 11 at Illinois
  • W- Feb. 14 Nebraska
  • L - Feb. 18 at Wisconsin
  • W- Feb. 23 Michigan
  • L - Feb. 26 at Penn State
  • W- March 2 at Minnesota
  • W- March 5 Northwestern
Click to expand...
19-12
 
Locking up an NCAA bid before playing the regular season finale is the goal. (Well, it's my goal for the team...lol)

8-3 OOC
12-8 B1G
20-11 overall

...then let the tournaments (B1G and NCAA) begin!

(If Cliff, Caleb, or Paul have to miss five or more games, scratch everything above.)
 
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Greene Rice FIG said:
I thing that has been a constant over the past 3 years. Multiple stretches per year where we look like trash and 90% of fans lose hope.......this in the middle of 3 NCAA seasons.
Click to expand...
What if we don't have those stretches this year?

Better ball movement and more balanced scoring should help prevent some of the inconsistency issues
 
Greene Rice FIG said:
average score margin through out the game.
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I’m pretty sure this is a completely meaningless stat but I’m willing to listen to counter arguments.

Averaging the score throughout the game seems to put way more weight on the 1st minute (which gets counted over and over) than the 40th minute (which only gets counted once). I can’t see any reason why you would want to do that. Just looking the final score weights all scoring equally which seems much better.
 
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fluoxetine said:
I’m pretty sure this is a completely meaningless stat but I’m willing to listen to counter arguments.

Averaging the score throughout the game seems to put way more weight on the 1st minute (which gets counted over and over) than the 40th minute (which only gets counted once). I can’t see any reason why you would want to do that. Just looking the final score weights all scoring equally which seems much better.
Click to expand...
It shows on average we are behind in games the majority of the game we are behind. It shows how good we are in the latter minutes of games.....probably says something bout our home court advantage (which will be there this year)

Did a little digging.....looking at 24 games against real compeittion.....how many games were 2 possession games at the 2 minutes mark?

12 of 24 were 2 possession games. we were 7-5 in those games.
We were ahead by more than 2 possessions 6 times and behind by 2 possessions 6 times.
 
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  • Nov. 7 Columbia - WIN 98.6%
  • Nov. 10 Sacred Heart - WIN 96.7%
  • Nov. 12 UMass-Lowell - WIN 93.1%
  • Nov. 18 vs. Temple at Mohegan Sun Arena, Conn. - WIN 64.5%
  • Nov. 22 Rider - WIN 92.5%
  • Nov. 26 Central Connecticut State - WIN 98.0%
  • Nov. 30 at Miami (Big Ten-ACC Challenge) - LOSS 33.1%
  • Dec. 3. Indiana - WIN 57.6%
  • Dec. 8 at Ohio State - LOSS 30.1%
  • Dec. 11 Seton Hall - WIN 50.3%
  • Dec. 17 Wake Forest - WIN 61.0%
  • Dec. 23 Bucknell - WIN 96.0%
  • Dec. 30 Coppin State - WIN 97.0%
  • Jan. 2 at Purdue - LOSS 20.3%
  • Jan. 5 Maryland - WIN 66.4%
  • Jan. 8 Iowa - LOSS 45.0%
  • Jan. 11 at Northwestern - WIN 51.4%
  • Jan. 15 Ohio State - WIN 50.9%
  • Jan. 19 at Michigan State - LOSS 28.0%
  • Jan. 24 Penn State - WIN 67.8%
  • Jan. 29 at Iowa - LOSS 25.2%
  • Feb. 1 Minnesota - WIN 70.5%
  • Feb. 4 vs. Michigan State at Madison Square Garden - LOSS 37.8%
  • Feb. 7 at Indiana - LOSS 36.3%
  • Feb. 11 at Illinois - LOSS 23.6%
  • Feb. 14 Nebraska - WIN 83.1%
  • Feb. 18 at Wisconsin - LOSS 22.8%
  • Feb. 23 Michigan - LOSS 49.7%
  • Feb. 26 at Penn State - LOSS 46.7%
  • March 2 at Minnesota - LOSS 49.8%
  • March 5 Northwestern - WIN 71.8%
Expected Records:
OOC 8.81-2.19
Conf 9.35-10.65
Overall 18.16-12.84

I have a fix to provide a distribution with an appropriate degree of uncertainty but I need to hack a couple things first.
 
Flux....17 games between 30-70% win probability. The lowest probability of a game is 22.8%. That has never been the case. It shows the lack of PERCEIVED very good B1G teams..
 
Greene Rice FIG said:
Flux....17 games between 30-70% win probability. The lowest probability of a game is 22.8%. That has never been the case. It shows the lack of PERCEIVED very good B1G teams..
Click to expand...
It's also because I'm using a model that incorporates the uncertainty of the team's ratings :)

We're making great advancements in meaningless fluoxetine basketball models this year
 
Nov. 7 Columbia W
Nov. 10 Sacred Heart W
Nov. 12 UMass-Lowell W
Nov. 18 vs. Temple at Mohegan Sun Arena, Conn. W
Nov. 22 Rider W
Nov. 26 Central Connecticut State W
Nov. 30 at Miami (Big Ten-ACC Challenge) L
Dec. 3. Indiana W
Dec. 8 at Ohio State L
Dec. 11 Seton Hall W
Dec. 17 Wake Forest W
Dec. 23 Bucknell W
Dec. 30 Coppin State W
Jan. 2 at Purdue L
Jan. 5 Maryland W
Jan. 8 Iowa L
Jan. 11 at Northwestern L
Jan. 15 Ohio State W
an. 19 at Michigan State L
Jan. 24 Penn State W
Jan. 29 at Iowa L
Feb. 1 Minnesota W
Feb. 4 vs. Michigan State at Madison Square Garden W
Feb. 7 at Indiana L
Feb. 11 at Illinois L
Feb. 14 Nebraska W
Feb. 18 at Wisconsin L
Feb. 23 Michigan W
Feb. 26 at Penn State W
March 2 at Minnesota W
March 5 Northwestern W

10-1 OOC
11-9 B1G
1-1 B1G Tournament
 
I feel like I messed something up here.. the spread is too wide (?). There are 2 in 1,000,000 sims where we go 0-31, and 3290 where we go 31-0. Under investigation...

0-31 0.0%
1-30 0.0%
2-29 0.0%
3-28 0.0%
4-27 0.1%
5-26 0.2%
6-25 0.3%
7-24 0.6%
8-23 1.0%
9-22 1.5%
10-21 2.1%
11-20 2.9%
12-19 3.6%
13-18 4.3%
14-17 5.1%
15-16 5.8%
16-15 6.4%
17-14 6.7%
18-13 7.0%
19-12 7.1%
20-11 7.0%
21-10 6.7%
22-9 6.3%
23-8 5.7%
24-7 5.0%
25-6 4.2%
26-5 3.4%
27-4 2.6%
28-3 1.9%
29-2 1.2%
30-1 0.7%
31-0 0.3%
 
Are the game by game percentages constant or do they change by previous game results? Running 1,000,000 how can more than 1 have 31-0 with those fixed probabilities.

weighted dice?
Are you a Astros fan?
 
Greene Rice FIG said:
Are the game by game percentages constant or do they change by previous game results? Running 1,000,000 how can more than 1 have 31-0 with those fixed probabilities.

weighted dice?
Are you a Astros fan?
Click to expand...
The game results aren’t independent. Each simulation draws the team ratings from a distribution and then simulates the games from there. This is definitely correct in theory (and the lack of this is why past predictions using independent probabilities.. or Bart’s tourney model… don’t have enough variance) but I might have a bug in there since I wrote the sim code quickly. On the other hand we’re talking about 0-31 once every 500 thousand years; maybe that is reasonable I don’t know
 
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