Well said, and we haven’t played a home game yet — Portugal, Africa, New York, Chicago, and next week away from the RAC in Trenton to start the season. Great way to prepare the guys for battle.
THE OFFICIAL 2023-2024 RUTGERS BASKETBALL PREDICTION THREAD
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
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Luis and Mag are comparable. Dingle will probably average 20 points a game and like Cliff was good enough to be invited to the G League combine.
Everything you said is a real possibility and I wouldn't bet against it.
On the flip side there is a possibility that this team doesn’t have enough experience on the floor especially when Mag is not 100%. This may really show on defense in conference play.
The other possibility is that this team doesn’t have someone to hit big shots late in games or get important buckets to change momentum.
There are a lot of questions and unproven guys that need to step up. There also is a lot of skill and depth that may gel and play well together. I don’t think anyone knows what to expect at this point.
Think by now, need to accept that Pike will find a way to get the most out of his teams. Despite losing two of the greatest to ever don an RU jersey after Dayton, if no mag injury last year we dance with our high seed ever. He righted the ship by the B1G tourney, but the clock ran out on making the case we were back.
23-8 and we knock off a #1 Purdue for the third year in a row.
23-8 and we knock off a #1 Purdue for the third year in a row.
20-11 with a slow start to the year
We will have to figure out where the scoring will come from and who will get the shots.
We have scorers and the 1,2 and 3 positions and Cliff will likely get his 15 pts and 10 rebounds.
I think the 4 is the issue. Will Aundre play enough D and rebound? Will he take his shots as part of the offense or will he force them?
Once Mag is back and if he returns to the level he was playing at, this team will be very good.
I actually think we will see a bit of Wolf at the 4, he has good instincts and athletic ability to play D and rebound.
We do not need points from the 4 as we did before
We will have to figure out where the scoring will come from and who will get the shots.
We have scorers and the 1,2 and 3 positions and Cliff will likely get his 15 pts and 10 rebounds.
I think the 4 is the issue. Will Aundre play enough D and rebound? Will he take his shots as part of the offense or will he force them?
Once Mag is back and if he returns to the level he was playing at, this team will be very good.
I actually think we will see a bit of Wolf at the 4, he has good instincts and athletic ability to play D and rebound.
We do not need points from the 4 as we did before
Scrimmages mean nothing. Coaches are experimenting
20 wins.
10 seed in NCAA
Slow start, Mag returns, Freshman find groove. Stars in the making..
There are actually more scorers than last year.
Qualify for NCAA tournament before league tournament!.. committee gave no weight to win over Michigan last year.
20 wins.
10 seed in NCAA
Slow start, Mag returns, Freshman find groove. Stars in the making..
There are actually more scorers than last year.
Qualify for NCAA tournament before league tournament!.. committee gave no weight to win over Michigan last year.
And started 0-12 or something from 3 which is an outlier performance that can happen against any team
Which is a reason to be more bullish on this season
Not when we are counting on the guy he played over to play 25 MPG.
I think we'll finish higher than NW, and I think there are a lot of players in the league better than Boo Buie.
I think the ball will be in Noah’s hands in the last possession. He may find an open shooter but he probably is the guy who they run thorough.
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15-16 (7-13)
A down year, not really all that unexpected with a new style, roster turnover and tougher (albeit not a gauntlet) OOC schedule. Princeton, Wake and Satan Hell are the keys to a winning season. No negative recruiting impact for 2024-2025 with expectations remaining high for next season.
A down year, not really all that unexpected with a new style, roster turnover and tougher (albeit not a gauntlet) OOC schedule. Princeton, Wake and Satan Hell are the keys to a winning season. No negative recruiting impact for 2024-2025 with expectations remaining high for next season.
If everything breaks our way, health wise, freshmen rising to challenge and player development wise my prediction is too bearish and we could get 19-20 wins.
I just say probability is one of those things doesn’t. Margin for error here is just too narrow.
8-3 out of conference.
An ugly January showing then finish B1G schedule hot in Feb and 9-11.
17-14
I just say probability is one of those things doesn’t. Margin for error here is just too narrow.
8-3 out of conference.
An ugly January showing then finish B1G schedule hot in Feb and 9-11.
17-14
10-1 non
12-8 conf
2-1 conf tourney ( reach finals)
Highest ranking (19)
Enter as the team non one wants to see: 24-10, 6 seed
12-8 conf
2-1 conf tourney ( reach finals)
Highest ranking (19)
Enter as the team non one wants to see: 24-10, 6 seed
| 11/6/2023 | vs. Princeton | W 1-0 |
| 11/10/2023 | Boston University | W 2-0 |
| 11/12/2023 | Bryant | W 3-0 |
| 11/15/2023 | Georgetown | W 4-0 |
| 11/18/2023 | Howard | W 5-0 |
| 11/27/2023 | Saint Peter's | W 6-0 ARV |
| 12/2/2023 | Illinois | W 7-0 (1-0) |
| 12/6/2023 | at Wake Forest | L 7-1 24 |
| 12/9/2023 | at Seton Hall | W 8-1 24 |
| 12/16/2023 | LIU | W 9-1 ARV |
| 12/23/2023 | vs. Mississippi State | W 10-1 ARV |
| 12/30/2023 | Stonehill | W 11-1 25 |
| 1/3/2024 | at Ohio State | L 11-2 (1-1) 25 |
| 1/6/2024 | at Iowa | L 11-3 (1-2) 25 |
| 1/9/2024 | Indiana | W 12-3 (2-2) ARV |
| 1/14/2024 | at Michigan State | L 12-4 (2-3) ARV |
| 1/17/2024 | Nebraska | W 13-4 (3-3) |
| 1/21/2024 | at Illinois | L 13-5 (3-4) |
| 1/28/2024 | Purdue | L 13-6 (3-5) |
| 1/31/2024 | Penn State | W 14-6 (4-5) |
| 2/3/2024 | at Michigan | L 14-7 (4-6) |
| 2/6/2024 | at Maryland | L 14-8 (4-7) |
| 2/10/2024 | Wisconsin | W 15-8 (5-7) |
| 2/15/2024 | Northwestern | W 16-8 (6-7) |
| 2/18/2024 | at Minnesota | W 17-8 (7-7) |
| 2/22/2024 | at Purdue | L 17-9 (7-8) |
| 2/25/2024 | Maryland | L 17-10 (7-9) |
| 2/29/2024 | Michigan | W 18-10 (8-9) |
| 3/3/2024 | at Nebraska | L 18-11 (8-10) |
| 3/7/2024 | at Wisconsin | L 18-12 (8-11) |
| 3/10/2024 | Ohio State | W 19-12 (9-11) |
| BIG 10 2ND ROUND | #9 Rutgers vs #8 Northwestern | W 20-12 |
| BIG 10 QUARTERFINALS | #9 Rutgers vs #1 Purdue | L 20-13 |
| NIT FIRST ROUND | Duquense at Rutgers | W 21-13 |
| NIT SECOND ROUND | Rutgers at North Carolina State | L 21-14 |
Unfortunately I am leaning against a trip to the NCAA tourney this year. Relying on newcomers to pick up a some major losses from last year in McConnell, Spencer, and Mulcahy is a shaky propostion. As good as Gavin will be and he will make the all freshmen team, the drop off in defense will be substantial and streaky shooting will be the norm from Fernades and Derek. To make the NCAA, Derek has to take a substantial leap forward along the lines of what Geo did in his sophomore year. Rebounding beyond Cliff will be an issue and the 4 spot remains the biggest question. If Mag returns to form pre injury we can get by, any drop off and very worried about the needed contributions to carry this team in rough spots.
10-1 OOC but could be as bad as 8-3. Key nugget is Mississippi State will be without their top player until January so I think that is a game that RU will get. I see a split vs SHU and Wake. Princeton is the wild card that I think is 50/50. Very important to go 9-2 at least because lets face it, this out of conference schedule is weak sauce yet again for the upteenth time. Dont overlook Georgetown, Bryant or Boston U springing a surprise upset.
Would love to see RU get that win over Illinois at the RAC to start the Big 10 season and get some monmentum. The early season Big 10 schedule in 2024 is rough with 3 of 4 on the road. February should be a more forgiving month than January which looks brutal. I think RU finishes in that 8-10 range in the Big 10 with an overall mark of 9-11 maybe 10-10. Once again the Big 10 will not offer those opportunities for big power wins so I see that 20-13 mark to end the year with a weak ooc and with a best ooc win over ncaa bubble Mississippi State not enough to make the tourney. I see RU headed to the NIT where they will win at least one round and unlike last year this will be a year that gives the team some valuable tourney experience headed into 2024-2025
Best win: Illinois
Best crowd: Ohio State
Worst loss: at Nebraska where Tominaga hits for 37 on 11 3s on their senior night
I haven't seen Duquesne at the RAC in over 30 years. Looking forward to that one. :)
Soo many unknowns with really only 1 guy returning to the role he had last year. Can't have too much conviction with any prediction.
WHAT I KNOW
1. Cliff is the absolute glue of this team as he provides rebounding and the shot blocking that team defense needs.
2. Mawot Mag when healthy is exactly what this team needs from a defensive standpoint. We were a near elite team before he went down and a lower 1/3 major team after he went down. Lack of depth was part of the reason, but Mag is/was a crucial piece.
3. Aundre Hyatt is Year 6 is not going to all of a sudden be a good defensive player. I have enough of a sample size to conclude he is not a good perimeter shooter (although he can get hot).
WHAT I THINK I KNOW
1. The deepest team.........we will NOT be as deep as people say we will be. There are positions on the floor we are actually thin in before the season starts.
2. Derek Simpson is a good piece but I don't see a top half major starting guard. The 1st step in proving me wrong is to knock open shots
3. TEMPO---maybe OOC we will play faster. In the end I think Pike will end up gravitating towards the best or better defensive team and I don't see that team benefitting playing fast offensively. Plus if I am right about lack of depth we wouldn't want to play fast.
4. Chol---he was so far behind defensively I have a tough time believing he makes drastic improvement and ends up having a major role in the rotation. Like Hyatt, knocking down shots will help him get PT
5. Woolfolk--at worst he will be a very capable back up and at best force himself in to 4 minutes. He soldifies the 5 position and it is a huge strength of ours.
WHAT I DON'T KNOW
1. Noah Fernandes---does his play and lack of size fit it to this team and can his game translate in to B1G
2. Gavin Griffith---I expect defense to not be a strength. Will his D be passable. Offensively I expect him to score. How efficient will he be. Obviously FG% will be the key
3..JaMike---I think he will be a big part of the rotation as a defensive player. Have no idea what to expect offensively and shooting
4. Mag---recovery from injury and future injuries
5. Chemistry---Every RU team has good chemistry the 1st week of November. That changes once the season starts
Wild guess
8-3
7-13
2-1
17-17
I'd give a greater probability of 13 wins compared to 21. If I were given 5 to 1 odds of RU making the NCAA I wouldn't make the bet. Maybe 6 to 1 I might bite.
WHAT I KNOW
1. Cliff is the absolute glue of this team as he provides rebounding and the shot blocking that team defense needs.
2. Mawot Mag when healthy is exactly what this team needs from a defensive standpoint. We were a near elite team before he went down and a lower 1/3 major team after he went down. Lack of depth was part of the reason, but Mag is/was a crucial piece.
3. Aundre Hyatt is Year 6 is not going to all of a sudden be a good defensive player. I have enough of a sample size to conclude he is not a good perimeter shooter (although he can get hot).
WHAT I THINK I KNOW
1. The deepest team.........we will NOT be as deep as people say we will be. There are positions on the floor we are actually thin in before the season starts.
2. Derek Simpson is a good piece but I don't see a top half major starting guard. The 1st step in proving me wrong is to knock open shots
3. TEMPO---maybe OOC we will play faster. In the end I think Pike will end up gravitating towards the best or better defensive team and I don't see that team benefitting playing fast offensively. Plus if I am right about lack of depth we wouldn't want to play fast.
4. Chol---he was so far behind defensively I have a tough time believing he makes drastic improvement and ends up having a major role in the rotation. Like Hyatt, knocking down shots will help him get PT
5. Woolfolk--at worst he will be a very capable back up and at best force himself in to 4 minutes. He soldifies the 5 position and it is a huge strength of ours.
WHAT I DON'T KNOW
1. Noah Fernandes---does his play and lack of size fit it to this team and can his game translate in to B1G
2. Gavin Griffith---I expect defense to not be a strength. Will his D be passable. Offensively I expect him to score. How efficient will he be. Obviously FG% will be the key
3..JaMike---I think he will be a big part of the rotation as a defensive player. Have no idea what to expect offensively and shooting
4. Mag---recovery from injury and future injuries
5. Chemistry---Every RU team has good chemistry the 1st week of November. That changes once the season starts
Wild guess
8-3
7-13
2-1
17-17
I'd give a greater probability of 13 wins compared to 21. If I were given 5 to 1 odds of RU making the NCAA I wouldn't make the bet. Maybe 6 to 1 I might bite.
vs. Princeton W 1-0
Boston University W 2-0
Bryant W 3-0
Georgetown W 4-0
Howard W 5-0
Saint Peter's W 6-0
Illinois W 7-0 (1-0)
at Wake Forest L 7-1
at Seton Hall L 7-2
LIU W 8-2
vs. Mississippi State W 9-2
Stonehill W 10-2
at Ohio State L 10-3 (1-1)
at Iowa L 10-4 (1-2)
Indiana W 11-4 (2-2)
at Michigan State L 11-5 (2-3)
Nebraska W 12-5 (3-3)
at Illinois L 12-6 (3-4)
Purdue L 12-7 (3-5)
Penn State W 13-7 (4-5)
at Michigan L 13-8 (4-6)
at Maryland L 13-9 (4-7)
Wisconsin W 14-9 (5-7)
Northwestern W 15-9 (6-7)
at Minnesota W 16-9 (7-7)
at Purdue L 16-10 (7-8)
Maryland W 17-10 (8-8)
Michigan W 18-10 (9-8)
at Nebraska W 19-10 (10-8)
at Wisconsin L 19-11 (10-9)
Ohio State W 20-11 (11-9)
B1G W- 21-11 (12-9)
B1G W- 22-11 (13-9)
B1G L- 22-12 (13-10)
NCAA W- 23-12
NCAA L- 23-13
Boston University W 2-0
Bryant W 3-0
Georgetown W 4-0
Howard W 5-0
Saint Peter's W 6-0
Illinois W 7-0 (1-0)
at Wake Forest L 7-1
at Seton Hall L 7-2
LIU W 8-2
vs. Mississippi State W 9-2
Stonehill W 10-2
at Ohio State L 10-3 (1-1)
at Iowa L 10-4 (1-2)
Indiana W 11-4 (2-2)
at Michigan State L 11-5 (2-3)
Nebraska W 12-5 (3-3)
at Illinois L 12-6 (3-4)
Purdue L 12-7 (3-5)
Penn State W 13-7 (4-5)
at Michigan L 13-8 (4-6)
at Maryland L 13-9 (4-7)
Wisconsin W 14-9 (5-7)
Northwestern W 15-9 (6-7)
at Minnesota W 16-9 (7-7)
at Purdue L 16-10 (7-8)
Maryland W 17-10 (8-8)
Michigan W 18-10 (9-8)
at Nebraska W 19-10 (10-8)
at Wisconsin L 19-11 (10-9)
Ohio State W 20-11 (11-9)
B1G W- 21-11 (12-9)
B1G W- 22-11 (13-9)
B1G L- 22-12 (13-10)
NCAA W- 23-12
NCAA L- 23-13
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| 1/6/2023 | vs. Princeton | W 1-0 |
| 11/10/2023 | Boston University | W 2-0 |
| 11/12/2023 | Bryant | W 3-0 |
| 11/15/2023 | Georgetown | W 4-0 |
| 11/18/2023 | Howard | W 5-0 |
| 11/27/2023 | Saint Peter's | W 6-0 |
| 12/2/2023 | Illinois | W 7-0 (1-0) |
| 12/6/2023 | at Wake Forest | W 8-0 |
| 12/9/2023 | at Seton Hall | L 8-1 |
| 12/16/2023 | LIU | W 9-1 |
| 12/23/2023 | vs. Mississippi State | W 10-1 |
| 12/30/2023 | Stonehill | W 11-1 |
| 1/3/2024 | at Ohio State | L 11-2 (1-1) |
| 1/6/2024 | at Iowa | L 11-3 (1-2) |
| 1/9/2024 | Indiana | W 12-3 (2-2) |
| 1/14/2024 | at Michigan State | L 12-4 (2-3) |
| 1/17/2024 | Nebraska | W 13-4 (3-3) |
| 1/21/2024 | at Illinois | L 13-5 (3-4) |
| 1/28/2024 | Purdue | L 13-6 (3-5) |
| 1/31/2024 | Penn State | W 14-6 (4-5) |
| 2/3/2024 | at Michigan | W 15-6 (5-5) |
| 2/6/2024 | at Maryland | L 15-7 (5-6) |
| 2/10/2024 | Wisconsin | W 16-7 (6-6) |
| 2/15/2024 | Northwestern | W 17-7 (7-6) |
| 2/18/2024 | at Minnesota | W 18-7 (8-6) |
| 2/22/2024 | at Purdue | L 18-8 (8-7) |
| 2/25/2024 | Maryland | W 19-8 (9-7) |
| 2/29/2024 | Michigan | W 20-8 (10-7) |
| 3/3/2024 | at Nebraska | W 21-8 (11-7) |
| 3/7/2024 | at Wisconsin | L 21-9 (11-8) |
| 3/10/2024 | Ohio State | W 22-9 (12-8) |
I see anywhere from 20-11 (10-10) to 22-9 (12-8)
We could obviously also severely flame out, but I choose to be overly optimistic
Side note before the season starts, I don't understand how any Rutgers fan can predict any less than 10-10 with what Pike has done the last 4 years, 11-9, 10-10, 12-8, 10-10. Is there a chance of us losing an early non conference game figuring out rotations and such or off night, sure, but most D1 teams are dealing with the same problems of over 1,000 players in the portal yearly. I trust Pike beating who he needs to beat in the B1G conference.
Yes, we lost our starting backcourt of Cam and Paul, who both crumbled under the pressure not stepped up when Mag got injured, and our best defender, Caleb, was wildly inconsistent offensively. Every year, we lose important pieces, Eugene O, Akwasi Yeboah, Shaq Carter, {JY Tez, Myles}, {Geo and Ron}, and this year, and every year the sky didn't fall and it won't fall this year either.
Both 5th and 6th yr grad transfers are plenty capable of playing at this level with the players we brought back and two talented freshman, 2G and JMike.
Noah last 3yrs, vs 16 top 100 opponents, 2pt 46-108 42.6%, 3pt 27-71 38%
AWill last 3yrs, vs 8 top 100 opponents, 2pt 39-61 63.9%, 3pt 9-21 42.9%
Noah more of a shooter, AWill more of a slasher. Both important pieces to the overall rotational puzzle. Too many predictions are in the whoa is me category. A little trust in the coach that has figured it out one way or another will go a long way. That locker room knows how good they are this year.
Yes, we lost our starting backcourt of Cam and Paul, who both crumbled under the pressure not stepped up when Mag got injured, and our best defender, Caleb, was wildly inconsistent offensively. Every year, we lose important pieces, Eugene O, Akwasi Yeboah, Shaq Carter, {JY Tez, Myles}, {Geo and Ron}, and this year, and every year the sky didn't fall and it won't fall this year either.
Both 5th and 6th yr grad transfers are plenty capable of playing at this level with the players we brought back and two talented freshman, 2G and JMike.
Noah last 3yrs, vs 16 top 100 opponents, 2pt 46-108 42.6%, 3pt 27-71 38%
AWill last 3yrs, vs 8 top 100 opponents, 2pt 39-61 63.9%, 3pt 9-21 42.9%
Noah more of a shooter, AWill more of a slasher. Both important pieces to the overall rotational puzzle. Too many predictions are in the whoa is me category. A little trust in the coach that has figured it out one way or another will go a long way. That locker room knows how good they are this year.
I understand your points, I think the 7-13 B1G prediction is very pessimistic however. That would be severely worse than previous seasons, and I’d argue the RAC gives a baseline of 7 conf wins.
The difference between 11-9 and 6-14 can literally be 6 or 7 key possessions that don't go your way. Back of the envelope.
5 games we win going away
8 games we lose going away
7 games are within 2 possessions with 2 minutes left
The difference between under.500, over .500, NIT or NCAA most likely comes down to what happens in those 7 games.
If you want to extend it to Miss St, WF, SHU and George town
7 games we win going away
9 games we lose going away
8 games within 2 possessions
6-1 non major OOC
13-10 + what happens in those 8 games
ALSO comparing to the last 4-5 years...preseason this is the worst team in my eyes
Ron harper was pretty good
Geo Baker was pretty good
Caleb was pretty good at defense
They aren't here. Plus we went from a long team to a not so long team.
Cam crumbled under the pressure? We must have watched a different season.
And it’s easy to predict worse than 10-10 if you don’t look at best case scenarios for every situation which is what you’re doing.
relying on a lot of frosh/soph and Noah to make up for the loss of 3 very experienced and pivotal players
The obvious bull case is
Mag healthy
Cliff is Cliff and improved a bit offensively
Gavin fills Cam's shoes
Simpson takes a huge leap
Noah is close to the PG "good Paul" was
JaMike isn't the defender Caleb is but can be the guy guarding best guard on other team
Hyatt actually is a lot better
Rotation is 9 deep and players accept their role
We make an extra 3 per game
We have multiple players that want the ball down the stretch
We need to hit a bunch of these. Most of it comes from those young players making up the lose of the 3
Mag and Cliff healthy - agreed, HUGE keys for this season.
Gavin's overall game, if he lives up to the hype, should be a good replica of what Cam did. Question if he has the onions as a true freshman to hit game winning shots, though.
Simpson shooting % needs to rise this year if he is going to take a step forward. He wasn't an outside threat at all last year.
Noah doesn't need to approach "good Paul" overall to see us have a good year. "Good Paul" was a rarity last year, especially once Mag went down. But he needs to be capable of hitting big 3s and getting 4-5 assists per game.
JMike as a Jacob Young type guy with hopefully fewer turnovers than "bad JY" would thrill us all.
Hyatt - I agree that I am skeptical we will see a big 6th year jump. He is streaky at worst, which sometimes can win you a game. Need to see more assists from him. That Minnesota end game brain fart still haunts me.
One extra 3 made per game in conference play is a low bar. We averaged 5.7 per game, only ahead of Indiana at 5.3. Maryland and Illinois were tied for 9th in league at 6.7.
Shocking stat: season 3pt% last year: Rutgers .321; Iowa .340. To hit that rate last year, that's only 12 more makes on our 608 attempts. Roughly one more bucket every three games.
Seriously, it is 2 talented freshman, a top 25/50 borderline 5 ⭐, and a way underrated freshman because he didn't play for a shoe company AAU, two sophomores in Derek Simpson, another underrated recruit who didn't play shoe company AAU, and 2 sport athlete who has played only 2 full years of basketball only that will grow exponently this year, 2 4th yr Junior, Mag, Cliff, and 3 5th or 6th yr Seniors, Noah, AWill, and Hyatt, in the top 9, doesn't include Oskar, Chol, Ogbole and JWill. Will Pike struggle in the non conference, yes, getting the rust off 4 players coming off injuries and figuring rotation but when it comes to the B1G they will be ready for Jan and Feb and will finish with at least 10 wins in conference, with home court advantage and his ability to coach up and win must win games.
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