THE OFFICIAL 2023-2024 RUTGERS BASKETBALL PREDICTION THREAD

[S.W.A.I.N]

Going with lots of others, 20-11 allows for 1 WTF loss and 1 upset win.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Trumpet i meant keeping attempts constatnt. More of a % boost. Think 5% better is an extra make given 20 or so attempts

 

[RUtrumpet92]

Trumpet i meant keeping attempts constatnt. More of a % boost. Think 5% better is an extra make given 20 or so attempts

We aren't going up 5% from 3 IMO. I think if we hit that many more per game, it is driven partly by a higher tempo on O and more attempts.

 

[Scangg]

relying on a lot of frosh/soph and Noah to make up for the loss of 3 very experienced and pivotal players

That's the concern and what everyone will point to if it's a bad season

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

That's the concern and what everyone will point to if it's a bad season

Or injuries

 

[bac2therac]

Get them in

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Get them in

Open a new thread and see what you get now.

 

[PJVegas]

18-13

 

[RU848789]

Forgot to post in this thread. Was originally going to go with 18-13/10-10 and I had Princeton being a toss-up game, so while I'll stick with that prediction, I have a little less confidence in it, by virtue of being now 0-1 in toss-up games. At 18-13/10-10, my guess is we'd need 2 B1G tourney wins to get in.

Also, while I think Princeton is a very good team, I'll admit to being a little nervous about what I saw from RU and will worry about us getting to my prediction until we play better and beat a few good teams. The one good thing we have going for us is that Pike has shown a great knack for having his teams grow and learn during the season, so hopefully we'll see more of that this year.

 

[fluoxetine]

17-12

What calamity are you predicting that causes at least 3 Rutgers basketball games to be canceled?

 

[JavaDunk18]

This will be a completely different team by the end of the season.
While Paul & Cam would have helped us to comfortable win in a Princeton matchup, going forward against. b1would have been more of the same that we saw at years end last year.
Gavin will continue to improve.
Missed bunny putbacks off forced drives will be replaced by easy layups & dunks off breaks
the Cliff to Wolf Jam was maybe a glimpse of the future
& Mag will be back soon..

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I am switching to 14-17. Is that allowed?

 

[Scangg]

relying on a lot of frosh/soph and Noah to make up for the loss of 3 very experienced and pivotal players

That's the concern and what everyone will point to if it's a bad season

👀

 

[Degaz-RU]

I am switching to 14-17. Is that allowed?

You think we’re going to win 9 more games?

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

I’ll say 16-15

Overly Optimistic aren’t ya Judge

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I am switching to 14-17. Is that allowed?

13-18?

 

[Sweet Peas Corner]

Forgot to post in this thread. Was originally going to go with 18-13/10-10 and I had Princeton being a toss-up game, so while I'll stick with that prediction, I have a little less confidence in it, by virtue of being now 0-1 in toss-up games. At 18-13/10-10, my guess is we'd need 2 B1G tourney wins to get in.

Also, while I think Princeton is a very good team, I'll admit to being a little nervous about what I saw from RU and will worry about us getting to my prediction until we play better and beat a few good teams. The one good thing we have going for us is that Pike has shown a great knack for having his teams grow and learn during the season, so hopefully we'll see more of that this year.

Ur predictions the past week have gone down hill.

 

[bac2therac]

Soo many unknowns with really only 1 guy returning to the role he had last year. Can't have too much conviction with any prediction.

WHAT I KNOW
1. Cliff is the absolute glue of this team as he provides rebounding and the shot blocking that team defense needs.
2. Mawot Mag when healthy is exactly what this team needs from a defensive standpoint. We were a near elite team before he went down and a lower 1/3 major team after he went down. Lack of depth was part of the reason, but Mag is/was a crucial piece.
3. Aundre Hyatt is Year 6 is not going to all of a sudden be a good defensive player. I have enough of a sample size to conclude he is not a good perimeter shooter (although he can get hot).

WHAT I THINK I KNOW
1. The deepest team.........we will NOT be as deep as people say we will be. There are positions on the floor we are actually thin in before the season starts.
2. Derek Simpson is a good piece but I don't see a top half major starting guard. The 1st step in proving me wrong is to knock open shots
3. TEMPO---maybe OOC we will play faster. In the end I think Pike will end up gravitating towards the best or better defensive team and I don't see that team benefitting playing fast offensively. Plus if I am right about lack of depth we wouldn't want to play fast.
4. Chol---he was so far behind defensively I have a tough time believing he makes drastic improvement and ends up having a major role in the rotation. Like Hyatt, knocking down shots will help him get PT
5. Woolfolk--at worst he will be a very capable back up and at best force himself in to 4 minutes. He soldifies the 5 position and it is a huge strength of ours.

WHAT I DON'T KNOW
1. Noah Fernandes---does his play and lack of size fit it to this team and can his game translate in to B1G
2. Gavin Griffith---I expect defense to not be a strength. Will his D be passable. Offensively I expect him to score. How efficient will he be. Obviously FG% will be the key
3..JaMike---I think he will be a big part of the rotation as a defensive player. Have no idea what to expect offensively and shooting
4. Mag---recovery from injury and future injuries
5. Chemistry---Every RU team has good chemistry the 1st week of November. That changes once the season starts

Wild guess
8-3
7-13
2-1
17-17

I'd give a greater probability of 13 wins compared to 21. If I were given 5 to 1 odds of RU making the NCAA I wouldn't make the bet. Maybe 6 to 1 I might bite.

nail meet hammer

 

[RU848789]

Ur predictions the past week have gone down hill.

Nice troll attempt bac/Rock - but perhaps you're forgetting that I predicted 2.0" at my house on Tuesday and got 2.0" and I predicted 3.3" at my house on Friday and got 2.9", which is considered pretty close, as far as snowfall predictions go. Those were the only predictions I made this past week. So you can suck it.

 

[darkcheck]

By month:
5-1
3-3
2-6
4-4
2-1
16-15, 8-12 B1G

Lose to Purdue and somehow Penn St and I’ll be spot on.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Soo many unknowns with really only 1 guy returning to the role he had last year. Can't have too much conviction with any prediction.

WHAT I KNOW
1. Cliff is the absolute glue of this team as he provides rebounding and the shot blocking that team defense needs.
2. Mawot Mag when healthy is exactly what this team needs from a defensive standpoint. We were a near elite team before he went down and a lower 1/3 major team after he went down. Lack of depth was part of the reason, but Mag is/was a crucial piece.
3. Aundre Hyatt is Year 6 is not going to all of a sudden be a good defensive player. I have enough of a sample size to conclude he is not a good perimeter shooter (although he can get hot).

WHAT I THINK I KNOW
1. The deepest team.........we will NOT be as deep as people say we will be. There are positions on the floor we are actually thin in before the season starts.
2. Derek Simpson is a good piece but I don't see a top half major starting guard. The 1st step in proving me wrong is to knock open shots
3. TEMPO---maybe OOC we will play faster. In the end I think Pike will end up gravitating towards the best or better defensive team and I don't see that team benefitting playing fast offensively. Plus if I am right about lack of depth we wouldn't want to play fast.
4. Chol---he was so far behind defensively I have a tough time believing he makes drastic improvement and ends up having a major role in the rotation. Like Hyatt, knocking down shots will help him get PT
5. Woolfolk--at worst he will be a very capable back up and at best force himself in to 4 minutes. He soldifies the 5 position and it is a huge strength of ours.

WHAT I DON'T KNOW
1. Noah Fernandes---does his play and lack of size fit it to this team and can his game translate in to B1G
2. Gavin Griffith---I expect defense to not be a strength. Will his D be passable. Offensively I expect him to score. How efficient will he be. Obviously FG% will be the key
3..JaMike---I think he will be a big part of the rotation as a defensive player. Have no idea what to expect offensively and shooting
4. Mag---recovery from injury and future injuries
5. Chemistry---Every RU team has good chemistry the 1st week of November. That changes once the season starts

Wild guess
8-3
7-13
2-1
17-17

I'd give a greater probability of 13 wins compared to 21. If I were given 5 to 1 odds of RU making the NCAA I wouldn't make the bet. Maybe 6 to 1 I might bite.

need us to win 2 B1G games

 

[LeapinLou]

15-16 (7-13)

A down year, not really all that unexpected with a new style, roster turnover and tougher (albeit not a gauntlet) OOC schedule. Princeton, Wake and Satan Hell are the keys to a winning season. No negative recruiting impact for 2024-2025 with expectations remaining high for next season.

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner

 

[superfan01]

There's literally no chance this team is worse than last year's roster, except for not having a legitimate replacement for Caleb McConnell. On the other hand, every other aspect of the roster is upgraded, 1 through 12.

this years roster was much worse then last year and no part of the roster was upgraded. Why don't think that was? Curious if you let us know what you got wrong looking at this team this offseason.

 

[RUJMM78]

The notion that this seasons roster is better than last season is absurd.Last season Rutgers was a bubble team and many predictors had them getting a NCAA bid.This seasons team had a losing record caused by one of the worse offenses in college basketball.

 

[JudgeSmails56]

I’ll say 16-15

I got laughed at for my prediction but I was pretty close.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

There was two beliefs that I had when I made my prediction

1.) Fernandes was the real deal and gojng to be a top half of the big ten point guard and sore double digits in a positive way…enough to send Paul to the portal

2.) Awill would be fully recovered and be able to score like he did at his last healthy stop …and play serious minures

Neither happens and as a result, our offense was a LOT worse than I coukd have ever inagined

 

[Rutgers56]

As lousy as the season was, I can’t lie, there’s a big feeling of pride here.

15-16 (7-13)

A down year, not really all that unexpected with a new style, roster turnover and tougher (albeit not a gauntlet) OOC schedule. Princeton, Wake and Satan Hell are the keys to a winning season. No negative recruiting impact for 2024-2025 with expectations remaining high for next season.

 

[LeapinLou]

There was two beliefs that I had when I made my prediction

1.) Fernandes was the real deal and gojng to be a top half of the big ten point guard and sore double digits in a positive way…enough to send Paul to the portal

2.) Awill would be fully recovered and be able to score like he did at his last healthy stop …and play serious minures

Neither happens and as a result, our offense was a LOT worse than I coukd have ever inagined

I expected Griffiths to be a 10 ppg guy who had the height to hold his own defensively. In hindsight, it was an unfair expectation. But him not being that guy was, in my opinion, the biggest contributor to our disappointment after the loss of Cam and Paul. Simpson remaining a hit-or-miss contributor bothered me more so than Fernandes. I had no expectations for AWill.

 

[Degaz-RU]

Multiple factors prevented any of the more rosy predictions from coming to fruition. This is not in any particular order:

• Noah was simply not the answer at PG.
• Simpson substantially regressed as a shooter and scorer.
• Gavin was an epic failure as compared to expectations of contributing shooting and 9 to 12 ppg.
• Cliff regressed without good guards getting him the ball in proper position.
• The injured players did not contribute enough, and were largely ineffective, i.e., Mag struggled in his return from ACL surgery, Noah was mostly irrelevant until a late season spurt, AWill was hampered by his chronic knee issue all year, Ogbole returned mid-year and then has needed many games to round into form (and even then he's just a raw body).
• Woolfolk regressed, and as a result, we got very little in the backup C minutes.
• We are the worst 3-pt shooting team in the history of the Universe, with two good shooters departing (Cam, Paul) and our best shooter this year (Hyatt) basically hovering around 30%.
• We suffered from a lack of on-court leadership with the departures of Paul, Cam, and Caleb.

Say what you will about Pike's recruiting misses in 2020-2022, but he was dealt a bad hand this year when Cam and Paul pulled the rug out from under him in May/June, and he was left scrambling and all he could get from the portal at that point was an oft-injured 7th year guard (AWill) and another guard who wasn't even expected to play this year due to two-time transfer rules and a gambling conviction (JWill). Pike also lost Ndongo late, and he would've been a terrific replacement for Mag.

Just about everything that could have gone wrong this year went wrong. It's really unbelievable that NOTHING worked out positively.

 

[Scangg]

Multiple factors prevented any of the more rosy predictions from coming to fruition. This is not in any particular order:

• Noah was simply not the answer at PG.
• Simpson substantially regressed as a shooter and scorer.
• Gavin was an epic failure as compared to expectations of contributing shooting and 9 to 12 ppg.
• Cliff regressed without good guards getting him the ball in proper position.
• The injured players did not contribute enough, and were largely ineffective, i.e., Mag struggled in his return from ACL surgery, Noah was mostly irrelevant until a late season spurt, AWill was hampered by his chronic knee issue all year, Ogbole returned mid-year and then has needed many games to round into form (and even then he's just a raw body).
• Woolfolk regressed, and as a result, we got very little in the backup C minutes.
• We are the worst 3-pt shooting team in the history of the Universe, with two good shooters departing (Cam, Paul) and our best shooter this year (Hyatt) basically hovering around 30%.
• We suffered from a lack of on-court leadership with the departures of Paul, Cam, and Caleb.

Say what you will about Pike's recruiting misses in 2020-2022, but he was dealt a bad hand this year when Cam and Paul pulled the rug out from under him in May/June, and he was left scrambling and all he could get from the portal at that point was an oft-injured 7th year guard (AWill) and another guard who wasn't even expected to play this year due to two-time transfer rules and a gambling conviction (JWill). Pike also lost Ndongo late, and he would've been a terrific replacement for Mag.

Just about everything that could have gone wrong this year went wrong. It's really unbelievable that NOTHING worked out positively.

This encapsulates the entire season

 

[RUGiddy777]

I expected Griffiths to be a 10 ppg guy who had the height to hold his own defensively. In hindsight, it was an unfair expectation. But him not being that guy was, in my opinion, the biggest contributor to our disappointment after the loss of Cam and Paul. Simpson remaining a hit-or-miss contributor bothered me more so than Fernandes. I had no expectations for AWill.

I also made the assumption that Gavin was going to be a 40% 3 point shooter on day 1, an assumption that now looks as good as his foul shooting on Sunday.

I was surprised AWill got so many meaningful minutes - but that kind of speaks to the season.

 

[fluoxetine]

Just about everything that could have gone wrong this year went wrong. It's really unbelievable that NOTHING worked out positively.

And despite this we still managed to field the #4 defense and win 7 Big Ten games.

Look, Pike has his flaws but this is the reason why I really do not understand some of the existential angst around here.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I expected Griffiths to be a 10 ppg guy who had the height to hold his own defensively. In hindsight, it was an unfair expectation. But him not being that guy was, in my opinion, the biggest contributor to our disappointment after the loss of Cam and Paul. Simpson remaining a hit-or-miss contributor bothered me more so than Fernandes. I had no expectations for AWill.

If expecting the 38th best recruit known for his offense to score 10 PPG is unfair expectation than what about next year?

What are realistic expectations for Ace and Dylan?

 

[JohnnyRU2]

If expecting the 38th best recruit known for his offense to score 10 PPG is unfair expectation than what about next year?

What are realistic expectations for Ace and Dylan?

comparing Griffiths to two projected top 5 picks is not fair. Griffiths to score 10 ppg was a fair expectation… he disappointed. Ace will lead our team in scoring next year

 

[LeapinLou]

If expecting the 38th best recruit known for his offense to score 10 PPG is unfair expectation than what about next year?

What are realistic expectations for Ace and Dylan?

World Domination of course.

 

[RAC93]

As lousy as the season was, I can’t lie, there’s a big feeling of pride here.

Kudos to you! I personally thought like others we would be a bubble team with 18 wins. Obviously we were not close to that. Since you nailed it this year, hoping you have a positive prediction for next season after the offseason dust settles and the roster is constructed.

 

[Scangg]

If expecting the 38th best recruit known for his offense to score 10 PPG is unfair expectation than what about next year?

What are realistic expectations for Ace and Dylan?

The 38th player is much close to the 100th player than a top 3 player

There is a big gap when you're talking about the top few players in a class

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

The 38th player is much close to the 100th player than a top 3 player

There is a big gap when you're talking about the top few players in a class

C'mon. 38th ranking purely for offense with the knowledge he wasn't going to be a guy with crazy athleticism.

He has been a massive disappointment. Anyone who would have expected 8 PPG and 20 MPG would have been ridiculed preseason.

 

[fluoxetine]

The 38th player is much close to the 100th player than a top 3 player

There is a big gap when you're talking about the top few players in a class

C'mon. 38th ranking purely for offense with the knowledge he wasn't going to be a guy with crazy athleticism.

He has been a massive disappointment. Anyone who would have expected 8 PPG and 20 MPG would have been ridiculed preseason.

I don't see why these can't both be right.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I don't see why these can't both be right.

I suppose they are.