No one ever talks about the Texas A & M game. RU was up 9 with a few minutes left and blew it.
Having that win on the resume would have been pretty big.
Having that win on the resume would have been pretty big.
THE OFFICIAL 2024-2025 NET RANKINGS THREAD
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
ACE has become incredibly better. Another level better. More comfortable , doing more things , rebounding , blocking shots , playing defense and yes even assisting even though our guys cannot convert his passes. He would have had 4 assists the last few games but the stat sheet shows 0 because our guys continue to miss wide open shots. Freshman are also growing up , Lathan , Grant and now Dortch. The fab 5 once Dylan gets back will be better than the earlier version of RU in November and early December. It is a big if , but if Dylan is totally healthy and returns , the team is a much more difficult team to beat than earlier in the year. One unfortunate sequence at Penn State and not having Dylan for second half MSU is the small difference between 3 and 2 and 5-0.
But it’s still 3-2. We may not ever see those five healthy together, and a shame we won’t in the ncaas.
It was with 12:51 left that ACE hit a 3 to go up 9 and stayed there until the 10 minute mark. Jeremiah hit the 3 to go up 77-76 with 3:01 left and we didn’t score again. Yes we blew it , another Martini gem.
Yeah - those are all conference games your pointing to - someone has to win and lose. My point was that OOC against D1 the worst MVC team went 5-4 (including 3 losses to major conference teams on the road by 2, 7 and 13 points).
The general point I’m trying to make is when bad teams play enough games against decent teams they will eventually be competitive in a few of them. Especially when you get a lot of chances at home. The same is true for the reverse - when good teams play enough road games against bad teams eventually they slip up or have a few close calls. It seems to me that NET ends up rewarding and punishing these outliers more than perhaps it should.
For those keeping track, Princeton lost to Yale, and Columbia is just about to lose at home to 6-11 Harvard.
Very bad for our NET
Very bad for our NET
Someone has to win and lose every game... there are always outliers, but efficiency looks at your performance vs. expectation in all games.
The major conference teams they've played, which you seem to be touting:
84 Butler (loss by 7 away)
93 WSU (loss by 13 away)
225 Boston College (loss by 2 neutral)
The delta in Kenpom's NetRtg between Missouri St and those opponents was 17 pts for Butler, 14 for WSU, and 3.5 for Boston College. Only Butler was a lot closer than expected, based on their adjusted efficiency.... but that outlier is met by a 17 pt loss to Evansville (delta of ~ 1pt) and a 22 pt loss to Southern Illinois (delta of ~6pts).
Also note that 225 Boston College is the 2nd worst major conference team, ahead of just 245 Miami. Missouri St might even be favored at home vs. Miami this year, major conference team or not.
Missouri State is 252 in Kenpom, 246 in Bart, and 253 in NET.... a lot of consistency there. RPI has them even lower at 305 (efficiency metrics give them a higher score than win/loss).
MVC has lower ranked teams - but a lot of that is driven by how inefficient the conference is as a whole in OOC play. If conferences keep cannibalizing each other, Drake may be gone soon, too, and they'll sink lower.
Princeton performed about as expected, and they only have one more shot at a good win (@Yale on 2/15). Columbia's going to take a big hit, though.... losing by double digits at home to 277 Harvard, ouch.
That’s fine. I wasn’t trying to say those teams are anything special. In fact the pure results based RPI hates tMissouri St even more than NET because as you point out, those teams have losing records and aren’t very good. Missouri State is the bottom of the barrel worst team in the MVC. In pointing out those results, I was simply trying to show that the gap isn’t that large really between with bottom of the MVC vs the bottom of say the ACC or BE. It’s quite possible that a tiny venue Missouri St gym fills up and presents more of a hostile environment than a morgue like Pru in a down year for Seton Hall.
Bad is bad. Thats the bottom line. In general, the problem with all of these metrics is that it’s hard to draw a line in the sand based on any formula to distinguish Q3 from Q4 well in any system. RPI punishes good teams for blowing out bad ones - nobody should ever be punished for a 40 point win. Was a terrible flaw. But NET seems to have its own bad flaws that thwart the entire output. The movements up and down seem to indicate that the system rewards bad teams (relative to other bottom feeders) like Seton Hall for “only” losing to Marquette by 17. I watched part of that game. It was a complete laugher with a few minutes to go - SHU down close to 30. Just one example - but NET puts the Pirates in a pool in much closer proximity to Princeton than to the Missouri St types and this has to be why. There’s just no way - the Pirates stink. They lost at home to Monmouth. Barely beat St Peters. Horrible. What should be happening is a team like VCU should be punished more not harmed less for this type of loss. Instead NET has a team like VCU with no good wins, 5 losses - 4 of which were to teams that won’t be in the field - comfortably ahead of teams like Drake - in short, the system seems to be designed so that bad major conference teams will come out miles ahead of even lower/middle of the pack midmajors as long as they aren’t losing all their games by 20+. Not that Lunardi is an expert - but he’s obviously running with that. VCU in first 4 out mapping to 11 line - Drake sitting on a 12 seed as the AQ.
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I'm not following. Seton Hall IS looked at closer to the Missouri St bucket than the Princeton bucket.
134 - Princeton (Q3 home/neutral, Q2 away)
192 - Seton Hall (Q4 home, Q3 neutral/away)
252 - Missouri St (Q4 home/neutral/away)
The Pirates are also terrible this year, but that doesn't mean Missouri St hasn't been worse.
You also can't just look at the bottoms of conferences. The ACC has a couple of clunkers this year, but they still have just 3 programs lower than 150. The MVC has 5 of 12 that low, and also only 2 of 12 better than 100.
Yes, Missouri St might be able to compete with Miami and Boston College... but those teams are also truly terrible this year.
Average NET of teams by conference (and range from highest to lowest):
30 - SEC (1-90)
46 - Big Ten (9-98)
50 - Big 12 (2-120)
74 - Big East (15-192)
97 - ACC (3-244)
124 - MWC (32-303)
132 - Atlantic 10 (47-242)
146 - CUSA (74-248)
148 - WCC (11-327)
157 - MVC (63-255)
161 - American (40-287)
182 - Big West (50-317)
201 - SoCon (99-360)
202 - Ivy (77-309)
Merrimack also losing dropping from 165 to 181 to add to Princeton and Columbia losses must have moved us.
The chances of Merrimack moving up to Q3 are done. Rutgers is a Quad 1 game for Michigan today but that could change tomorrow
Illinois is dropping games left and right but hasn’t moved much. A lot of these teams NET is pretty baked in.
The daily worrying about our own NET is silly at this point. 75ish is fine, for now. If we're going to make any kind of postseason push it's going to require us to win. A lot. And our NET will improve accordingly.
What's more important is making sure our Q1 wins stay as Q1 wins. And that any Q3 losses don't become Q4. Etc.
What's more important is making sure our Q1 wins stay as Q1 wins. And that any Q3 losses don't become Q4. Etc.
Yes and you said that could change tomorrow. Which means to me that if RU was to somehow win against Michigan they would drop. I commented they are 20 and doubtful they would drop that far and definitely not to 30 since it seems a lot of these top teams NET is already baked in.
Did you mean something else ?
omfg..read what I said
Rutgers is a Quad 1 game for Michigan.
With a Michigan win, Rutgers may slip to a Quad 2 game for Michigan
I dont know how more I can spell it out
If we get onto the bubble we need to have the committee thinking harper will play. I think TV execs may provide some subtle influence to have Rutgers be given some consideration if they think they can get both stars in.
I’m saying the opposite - I think a road loss to Seton Hall should be viewed much more like a road loss to Missouri State than it should a road loss to Princeton (Princeton has been dealing with injuries and sickness recently but in general). Seton Hall stinks. There are very few mid-major divisions where they would be in the top half of the standings.
You’ll point to NET and efficiency to try to suggest otherwise but that’s simply a matter of opinion that the new system (which rewards those 17 point losses over very good teams at home) is an overall much fairer representation than the old system which clogs SHU in at a putrid RPI 256. The bad flaws with RPI’s looping generally dont impact bad teams - more of a problem at the top. If you play enough good teams eventually your going to catch a couple teams in off days and maybe pull off an upset. Thats true of every team - you have to look at the big picture and SHU has sucked so many times including against really terrible teams. They stink. By the way, every team in the MVC actually clogs in better than SHU on the pure result RPI formula except Missouri St. SHU could well be in dead last too if they replaced Missouri State.
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Yeah, a loss to SHU is already viewed more closely to Missouri St than Princeton. Road losses to SHU/Missouri St are Q3/Q4, and a road loss to Princeton is Q2. Generally speaking, Q3/Q4 losses are considered "bad losses" and Q2 losses aren't.
Princeton is middling, SHU is bad, and Missouri St is worse. Numbers bear that out.
MVC is a weak conference, full stop. Drake/Bradley are the only teams that are in any way decent. Missouri is a bad team in a weak conference, and SHU is a bad team in a stronger conference. If SHU played Missouri St's schedule, even as bad as they are, they'd have had better results.
I hope the last holdouts accept reality
i will still update this everyday because why not
rutgers might even move up a couple spots tomorrow
i will still update this everyday because why not
rutgers might even move up a couple spots tomorrow
Meh..still a week away..maybe drop some morsels this week
North Carolina 13-10 at 1-9 in Q1 is in serious danger of missing the NCAA tournament
That resume is somewhat Rutgers like, best win is UCLA, they just don’t have the bad Q3 losses like Rutgers. Pretty weak resume overall.
Losing to Kennesaw State and Princeton was the beginning of what has been a very disappointing season.Rutgers lacks a half court offense , 3 point shooters and a healthy Harper.
Yeah, I didn’t realize it at the time but that week from Kennesaw through Vegas games was a signal for the future that the season was going nowhere. To have a really good year we needed to be at least 2-2 and really a 3-1 week to be positioned for the NCAAs. Instead we go 1-3 with a bad loss and we have been in a tailspin since and never recovered. We are 7-11 since the Kennesaw game.
Rutgers up 1 to 75....meaning for now Rutgers is just a Quad 2 loss for surging Nebraska.
Illinois is up to 12
Illinois is up to 12
RU is now #75
Q1: 3-9 / Q2: 2-0 / Q3: 0-2 / Q4: 6-0
Results:
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
6 - (N)Alabama (L)
10 - Purdue (L)
14 - (N)Texas A&M (L)
16 - Wisconsin (L)
17 - Michigan (L)
20 - MSU (at MSG) (L)
26 - @OSU (L)
28 - UCLA (W)
50 - @Nebraska (W)
54 - @PSU (L)
57 - @Northwestern (W)
65 - @Indiana (L)
Q2 (31-75 Home 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
48 - PSU (W)
93 - (N)Notre Dame (W)
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
126 - (N)Princeton (L)
160 - @Kennesaw St (L)
Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 241+ Away)
178 - Merrimack (W)
204 - SHU (W)
227 - Columbia (W)
265 - Monmouth (W)
281 - St. Peters (W)
332 - Wagner (W)
Upcoming
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
10 - @Purdue
12 - Illinois
15- @Maryland
17 - @Michigan
37 - @Oregon
Q2 (31-75 Home, 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
63 - Iowa
68 - USC
94 - @Washington
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
101 - Minnesota
Notes:
- Notre Dame trying very hard to drop out of Q2 and give us a Q3 win
- UCLA now a Q1 win
- Getting really hard to even care enough to do this list periodically
Q1: 3-9 / Q2: 2-0 / Q3: 0-2 / Q4: 6-0
Results:
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
6 - (N)Alabama (L)
10 - Purdue (L)
14 - (N)Texas A&M (L)
16 - Wisconsin (L)
17 - Michigan (L)
20 - MSU (at MSG) (L)
26 - @OSU (L)
28 - UCLA (W)
50 - @Nebraska (W)
54 - @PSU (L)
57 - @Northwestern (W)
65 - @Indiana (L)
Q2 (31-75 Home 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
48 - PSU (W)
93 - (N)Notre Dame (W)
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
126 - (N)Princeton (L)
160 - @Kennesaw St (L)
Q4 (161+ Home, 201+Neutral, 241+ Away)
178 - Merrimack (W)
204 - SHU (W)
227 - Columbia (W)
265 - Monmouth (W)
281 - St. Peters (W)
332 - Wagner (W)
Upcoming
Q1 (1-30 Home, 1-50 Neutral, 1-75 Away)
10 - @Purdue
12 - Illinois
15- @Maryland
17 - @Michigan
37 - @Oregon
Q2 (31-75 Home, 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 Away)
63 - Iowa
68 - USC
94 - @Washington
Q3 (76-160 Home, 101-200 Neutral, 136-240 Away)
101 - Minnesota
Notes:
- Notre Dame trying very hard to drop out of Q2 and give us a Q3 win
- UCLA now a Q1 win
- Getting really hard to even care enough to do this list periodically
BTW the list is great, but I totally get it about not caring enough to do the list. It’s a waste of a season, I am just watching to see if Dylan plays again (love watching that guy drive to the hoop), see if Ace can have some more 30+ games, and if we can make the conference tourney. I think it’s going to be very close if we make the Big 10 or not, very close race right now. Don’t see NIT or Vegas tournament being in the cards as the teams going to both of those tourneys would be bubble teams that missed the NCAAs, we’re not even a bubble team and we would have to go on a run of wins just to be considered for the NIT.
RU has some favorable games...iowa, minny, usc at washington...win them all and they make the tourney.Win 3 and it could be down to a tiebreaker for that last spot but I think RU is in good shape with the win over Northwestern and split vs PSU. Indiana could end up falling off a cliff so that loss could come into play
