Last night we shot 58% from the field. if we shot a normal 40% the difference is 19 points and we score 57 points in 68 possessions. Maybe if we get 3 OREBs on those incremental misses we score 60 points in 67 possessions.
We aren't shooting 58% tonight or have a stretch were we go 17-21.
However we only got 2 OREBs out of 23 chances. Was that a sign of fatigue? MAYBE
Purdue is #3 in offensive efficiency. they shoot 42.1% from 3 (#2 in country). Our success is going to come down to them having a poor shooting night.
If things go to form and both team play their normal game the score is 74-58.
They were 7-21 from 3 in our game (the good one)against them. they still scored 78 in 65 possessions.
To have a chance we need to score 70. That really can't happen when our 3 takes 1 shot or when our 5s take no shots. We need 2 of 3 (Baker, Williams and Issa) to score 30 points combined. Probability wise it almost has to be Baker and Williams.
I am supposed to make a prediction....
Purdue 72
Rutgers 54
The game is closer then the final score. We are down 7 with 10 to go and just can't get over the hump. 2 consecutive possessions turn the 7 point game to 13 and our season is over.