The talent is exactly what they should lose like I said above. They need to get their cost structure in line and talent is a very good place to do it. I'm not tuning in to ESPN for Skip Bayless, Chris Berman or whomever no matter how good they are or bad in the case of those 2. Losing talent isn't telling of much other than they can't be as profligate as they once were and they have to be more spendthrift.
It's the content (the premium sports properties) that matter and that to me is where they better be careful in how much they cut costs. Without that, that's when they actually struggle and will die. But as long as they have that, they'll be fine.
The other sports networks can grow but there's always the first mover advantage of ESPN plus some of the one mentioned above are single sport networks, that in itself limits it's growth. If you think ESPN was a niche network just for sports back then these single sport network are like a niche network of a niche network. As to the ESPN "clones" like NBC, Fox etc.. well growing when you're nascent and small is generally easier versus growing when you're mature and large. To me it's all about who has the premium content. Right now that's ESPN. If that ever changes that's when they're in danger. Until then they will always be a player. IMO Fox is the main challenger because they've been the most aggressive to date in acquiring other premium content. Even then though right now their ratings don't come close to ESPN last I looked.
To use my retail analogy, I don't see ESPN as struggling like I don't see a Walmart/Target struggling despite their poor earnings lately and slow growth. They have issues to deal with but will always likely be players in retail. A JC Penney is someone that I see as struggling, a company with lots of debt and still incurring losses and barely keeping its neck above water. And then you have a Sears that is a walking zombie that's been at death's door for years. That's my point about ESPN, just because they're not growing like they once were doesn't mean they're struggling and eventually the issues will trough and level out. But like I said that's provided they keep their hands on the content.
My prediction for the future is that these properties will become fragmented and ESPN is going to come back to the pack to a degree but will likely always be a main player on the stage.
