Updated NCAA Wrestling Tournament Post: AQ and B1G Final Rankings

[Ole Cabbagehead]

Edit: This is the original post, which is mostly useless now:

Based on the February 7 RPI, the following represent the number of Big Ten wrestlers who are ranked in the Top 29 for each weight. I have also included where RU falls in that hierarchy. Where RU falls will give an idea of how well the RU wrestlers need to perform at the Big Ten tournament to get an automatic qualifier bid to the NCAA tournament.

125-----8----(RU is 7 of 8)
133-----11--(RU is 8 of 11)
141-----9----(RU is 2 of 9)
149-----9----(RU is 9 of 9)
157-----8----(RU is 3 of 8)
165-----7----(RU is 3 of 7)* I am bumping Perrotti ahead of Welch b/c of the pin.
174-----10--(RU is 8 of 10)
184-----7----(RU is 6 of 7)
197-----6----(RU is not qualifying a spot)
285-----7----(RU is 4 of 7)


The following represent the number of spots in the Top 20 held by Big Ten wrestlers from Intermat and Flowrestling per the latest rankings. This give an idea of the margin of error at the Big Tens.

WT.-----INTERMAT---------------------FLO
125-----6-----------------------------------5
133-----9-----------------------------------10 (RU is 10 of 10)
141-----4 (RU is 2 of 4)----------------4 (RU is 1 of 4)
149-----6-----------------------------------6
157-----7 (RU is 4 of 7)----------------7 (RU is 3 of 7)
165-----7 (RU is 4 of 7)----------------6 (RU is 4 of 6)
174-----7-----------------------------------8
184-----6 (RU is 6 of 6)----------------7 (RU is 7 of 7)
197-----5-----------------------------------5
285-----7 (RU is 5 of 7)----------------6 (RU is 5 of 6)

This is an explanation of how AQ Spots work, and how wrestlers qualify for the NCAA Tournament (I rewrote this to make it more clear):

Explanation of AQ Spots:

33 wrestlers qualify for the NCAA tournament at each weight class. 4 or 5 of the 33 spots will be set aside as "wild card" spots. The remaining 28 or 29 spots will be awarded as "Automatic Qualifier" ("AQ") bids to the various conferences.

Ever conference gets at least 1 AQ Bid per weight class. After that, all remaining AQ Bids will be allocated among the conferences based primarily on the number of wrestlers ranked in the Top 33 of the final Coaches Poll and RPI Rankings. These allocations are made after the regular season ends, and before the conference tournaments.

Generally speaking, the AQ bids are awarded to the conferences based on the number of wrestlers ranked in the Top 33 of the final Coaches Poll and RPI Rankings. This does not work out perfectly, because of the reservation of wild card spots, and the fact that every conference gets at least one AQ bid per weight class, even though they may not have a wrestler ranked in the top 33. There are also some additional criteria, such as the fact that a wrestler must have wrestled a minimum number of matches.

Once the AQ bids allocated to each conference are announced, the rankings go out the window. It is up to the wrestlers to win their spot at the conference tournament. If the Big Ten is allocated 7 spots for the 125 lb. weight class, the top 7 placers at the Big Ten tournament qualify for the NCAAs. All AQ spots go to the top placers at the conference tournament.

After the conference tournaments end, the NCAA Tournament Committee will award the wild card bids. These bids go to the best wrestlers who failed to place high enough at their conference tournaments. They are based on criteria, with winning percentage being the most important. The wild cards will most often go to highly ranked wrestlers who get upset at their conference tournaments. If the top wrestlers all perform as expected at the conference tournaments, the wild card spots will be awarded to the best of the rest.

2016 Automatic Qualifiers Announced:

The following includes the number of AQ bids awarded to the Big Ten, along with all tournament ranked wrestlers in the Big Ten (RPI/Coaches) at each weight class. Rutgers guys are in bold. Italics indicate guys who are on the outside looking in based on their tournament ranking. Guys who are not ranked in the RPI, but are highly ranked in the coaches poll, are usually guys who were hurt most of the year, and therefore do not qualify for an RPI ranking.

125-----7 AQ Spots
#1/#1 - Tomasello, OSU
#3/#2 - Gilman, Iowa
#5/#4 - Megaludis, PSU
#8/#13 - Lambert - Neb
#10/#19 - Oliver, IU
#22/#24 - Youtsey, UM
#25/#NR - Jiminez, UW
...
#27/#27 - McCabe, RU
#29/#31 Thornton, Pur
#NR/#29 Polakowski, Minn
#32/#NR Rogaline, MSU

133-----9 AQ Spots
#2/#2 - Richards, Ill.
#NR/#3 - Clark, Iowa
#3/#5 - Conaway, PSU
#6/#9 - Montoya, Neb
#8/#11 - DiJulius, OSU
#NR/#13 - Alexander, UMD
#NR/#14 - Taylor, UW
#17/#17 - Malone, NW
#19/#20 - Giraldo, RU
...
#20/#15 - Bruno, UM
#22/#30 - Brancal, Minn
#27/#29 - Welch, Pur

141-----7 AQ Spots
#3/#5 - Ashnault, RU
#6/#4 - Jordan, OSU
#7/#9 - Thorn, Minn
#16/#18 - Abidin, Neb
#NR/#19 - Oster, UW
#17/#20 - Gasca, MSU
#NR/#21 - Gulibon
...
#27/#24 - Sabatello, Pur


149-----6 AQ Spots
#1/#1 - Retherford, PSU
#2/#2 - Sorenson, Iowa
#4/#3 - Sueflohn, Neb
#9/#5 - Pantaleo, UM
#NR/#6 - Tsirtsis, NW
#20/#21 - Griffin, Pur
...
#NR/#25 - Blanton, IU
#21/#NR - Crone, UW
#22/#16 - Short, Minn
#27/#31 - Dippery, RU


157-----7 AQ Spots
#3/#1 - Nolf, PSU
#9/#2 - Martinez, Ill.
#6/#9 - Lewis, RU
#NR/#12 - Ryan, OSU
#7/#18 - Berger, Neb
#14/#15 - Cooper, Jr. - Iowa
#NR/#16 - Murphy, UM
...
#25/#32 - Kingsley, Minn
#26/#26 - Mascola, UMD
#27/#31 - Welch, Pur

165-----6 AQ Spots
#3/#2 - Jordan, UW
#NR/#3 - Jordan, OSU
#6/#7 - Perrotti, RU
#8/#4 - Rodrigues, Ill
#9/#NR - Morelli, PSU
#12/#9 - Wilson, Neb
...
#15/#8 - Welch, Pur
#22 - Krone, Minn
#27 - Rhoads, Iowa

174-----9 AQ Spots
#2/#1 - Nickal, PSU
#6/#9 - Meyer, Iowa
#8/#14 - Martin, OSU
#9/#18 - Barnes, Neb
#10/#12 - Jackson, IU
#13/#24 - Wanzek, Minn
#15/#3 - Brunson, Ill.
#20/#25 - Robertson, UW
#24/#23 - Bakuckas, RU

184-----7 AQ Spots
#2/#2 - Abounader, UM
#3/#9 - Dudley, Neb
#8/#12 - Brooks, Iowa
#12/#11 - McCutcheon, PSU
#13/#18 - Gravina, RU
#17/#22 - Koepke, Ill.
#22/#17 - Courts, OSU
...
#31/#32 - Christenson, UW

197-----6 AQ Spots
#1/#1 - McIntosh, PSU
#6/#3 - Pfarr, Minn
#8/#7 - Huntley, UM
#9/#4 - Burak, Iowa
#13/#9 - Studebaker, Neb
#20/#28 - Martin, OSU

285-----7 AQ Spots
#NR/#3 - Coon, UM
#4/#6 - Stoll, Iowa
#6/#9 - Smith, RU
#10/#8 - Kroells, Minn
#20/#24 - Black, Ill.
#24/#21 - Jensen, Neb
#26/#23 - Peck, UMD
...
#NR/#33 - Horvath, UW

I will make the next update when the Big Ten tournament seeding is announced.

 

[Jaroslav Hasek]

I think they only give out 29 or so AQ's per weight and hold 4 spots out for wild card selections (not super positive on the rules).

RU's chances of getting NCAA bids based on wrestlingreport's rankings (that go up to 33) imo:
125 - McCabe (29) - very bubbly
133 - Giraldo (21) - slightly bubbly
141 - Ashnault (8) - lock
149 - Dippery (27) - bubble
157 - Lewis (10) - near lock
165 - Perrotti (5) - lock
174 - Bakuckas (26) - bubble
184 - Gravina (19) - slightly bubbly
197 - Hrymack (NR) - extremely bubbly
285 - Smith (12) - near lock

odds may change after conference qualifiers come out and the B1G seeds are released. 9 bids is possible and would be awesome but is still very unlikely imo. 5 would be low end and also very unlikely. 6-8 would be the most likely. would guess 7 but not at all be surprised with 8.

 

[ruwarrior]

I think the over/under on RU NCAA bids is 7.5

 

[Abro1975]

Love this time of year for wrestling ! My only problem is I have to go to a baby baptism on March 6, day of NJ State finals AND Big 10 finals ! I told my wife I'm bringing my IPad , I don't care, lol. NJcom is streaming the NJ State finals and have a BTN Plus subscription.

 

[RUCreedo]

Love this time of year for wrestling ! My only problem is I have to go to a baby baptism on March 6, day of NJ State finals AND Big 10 finals ! I told my wife I'm bringing my IPad , I don't care, lol. NJcom is streaming the NJ State finals and have a BTN Plus subscription.

Abro..you know the old lady is gonna smack you upside the head if you do that..plus she'll find a way too introduce you too everyone..lol

 

[Ole Cabbagehead]

I think the over/under on RU NCAA bids is 7.5

I'll take the over all day.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

8 bids this year.

 

[RU93]

I have BTN Plus for Rutgers only. Can I still watch all the matches in the B1G tourney?

 

[Abro1975]

Yes you can see all mats w only an Ru subscription.

 

[Ole Cabbagehead]

I think they only give out 29 or so AQ's per weight and hold 4 spots out for wild card selections (not super positive on the rules).

RU's chances of getting NCAA bids based on wrestlingreport's rankings (that go up to 33) imo:
125 - McCabe (29) - very bubbly
133 - Giraldo (21) - slightly bubbly
141 - Ashnault (8) - lock
149 - Dippery (27) - bubble
157 - Lewis (10) - near lock
165 - Perrotti (5) - lock
174 - Bakuckas (26) - bubble
184 - Gravina (19) - slightly bubbly
197 - Hrymack (NR) - extremely bubbly
285 - Smith (12) - near lock

odds may change after conference qualifiers come out and the B1G seeds are released. 9 bids is possible and would be awesome but is still very unlikely imo. 5 would be low end and also very unlikely. 6-8 would be the most likely. would guess 7 but not at all be surprised with 8.

Great calls on the wild cards, and on your "bubbly meter." As others have said, I also expect 8 qualifiers this year, with a +/- 1 margin. Two of the more questionable guys, Dip and Bak, have been looking pretty good recently and I think at least 1 of them will wind up "in". Unfortunately, I expect Hayden to be out, but hoping he goes out with a bang and somehow manages.

Also unfortunately, McCabe and Giraldo have been falling off right when it counts. Both of them should have been comfortable qualifiers. That said, Giraldo should still be in. I would upgrade Lewis to lock. He will wild card even if he has a terrible Big Ten tourney.

 

[obrats]

Hot off the press

http://www.ncaa.com/news/wrestling/...ualifier-allocations-coaches-rankings-and-rpi

 

[Ole Cabbagehead]

NM

 

[ScarletGrapfan]

Automatic Qualifiers Announced

Here are the number of automatic qualifiers the Big Ten earned per weight class, along with the wrestlers who finished in the RPI Top 33 from the Big Ten. Good news at heavyweight, as they gave an additional spot, which in all likelihood go to Coon. Also good news for Bakuckas and Giraldo. Bad news for McCabe and Dippery as those weights are going to be tough.

All Rutgers guys are in bold. Italics indicate Top 33 guys who did not qualify a spot, and will therefor need to outperform their RPI ranking at the Big Ten tourney to gain an AQ bid.



285-----7
#4 - Stoll, Iowa
#6 - Smith, RU
#10 - Kroells, Minn
#20 - Black, Ill.
#24 - Jensen, Neb
#26 - Peck, UMD
Only 6 in Top 33

Ole Cabbagehead, do not forget about Snyder from OSU and Nevills from Penn State. Although if Smith did not place in top 7 at the Big10 tournament he would be almost assured of a wild card bid.

 

[Ole Cabbagehead]

Ole Cabbagehead, do not forget about Snyder from OSU and Nevills from Penn State. Although if Smith did not place in top 7 at the Big10 tournament he would be almost assured of a wild card bid.

Very true. If I have time later... I will plug in the Coaches Rankings, which won't be as kind to our guys as the RPI is I don't think. For now, back to work. I just wasted way too much time on that.

 

[kjb32812]

Great stuff OP. Can't wait for next week.

 

[Ole Cabbagehead]

Great stuff OP. Can't wait for next week.

Thanks. Hope you arrived late enough to see the "new and improved" version of the thread.

 

[kjb32812]

Thanks. Hope you arrived late enough to see the "new and improved" version of the thread.

Just got here.