Again, that translates to one additional completion per game vs. last year.
It's one thing to be clueless but to keep regurgitating dumb points once they've been pointed out to you - that's a special type of stupidity.
USC Victory will be our BEST EVER
- Thread starter rutgersal
- Start date
It's one thing to be clueless but to keep regurgitating dumb points once they've been pointed out to you - that's a special type of stupidity.
I get where Al was really going with this as we have always been his USC of the East.
But dare to say the Michigan win has as much "name" as USC.
But even though we all know this isn't the USC of the past- a win against such a elite and named school - would have a huge impact.
Did someone actually say- not in our top 100??? lol
But dare to say the Michigan win has as much "name" as USC.
But even though we all know this isn't the USC of the past- a win against such a elite and named school - would have a huge impact.
Did someone actually say- not in our top 100??? lol
kind of respectfully, disagree- beating a USC will get noticed by the parents of these kids- and we both know that media loves a good story- a "Rutgers" beating a storied USC- that is headline stuff...
If you want to see it in reality- not really a huge upset at all but "perception"
Sorry, but looks like math isn’t your strength.
58% of 350 passes is 203. Gavin had 138 completions. So the expected difference is for the year is 65 Completions/ 13 games= 3.46 more completions per game, not the one additional completion that you claim. Some of the difference will be due to us passing more because the expectation is we’ll be better at it.
Even if I take the worst case scenario, and use a 55% completion rate and we pass 294 times like last year, that’s still a difference of 24 completions for the year or 1.82 completions per game, close to 2.
So I’m not the clueless one.
Correct. It’s not only just this though. AK has, throughout his career, been consistent with passing way more frequently (taking each game (rather than each throw) as a stand alone metric which is probably a more important data point (less impacted by desperation throws at the end of lopsided games).
I posted it somewhere else. AK had 4 inaccurate games. He averaged over 61% across the other 8 games with 6 of those games over 57%. He completed at least half of his passes in all 8 of those other games.
By way of comparison, Gavin Wimsatt only completed even half of his passes 4 times total last season. Wagner was one of those games. Game in and out this is a massive difference in accuracy.
last year was the first time that both were the starters- and AK averaged 2 more passes per game. 3 more completions but he did not pass way more frequently.
The hope is that with a better OL that will do a better job of protection, he will be able to pass more.
Unless USC is off to a great start and undefeated, no lasting impact or moving of the needle….
“Hmmm, Rutgers beat USC, cool. Hey Ma, what’s for dinner?”
You are looking at blended statistics across games under the premise that every throw reflects a QB’s accuracy ability the same. The flaw with this approach is that it assumes (falsely) that every throw is made under the same conditions.
Thats why I suggest looking at how accurate the QB was in each game (I.e. how often on a given day, the QB threw accurately), regardless of how many attempts they had in the game - to mitigate the impact of outlier performances due to match up, situational need to force throws playing from behind, etc. It’s here where Gavin’s accuracy struggles really stand out comparatively because you observe that he only completed half of his passes 4 times on the entire season (one of which, Wagner, was basically a scrimmage). It didn’t matter what the situation - clearly, GW was consistently inaccurate with passing for whatever reason.
Our new QB, completed at least half his passes in 8 out of his 12 games, and completed over 57% of them in 6 games (half of them). The blended stats your looking at double weight games like Purdue and Nebraska (almost 30% of all his passes were made in those 2 games) where he didn’t even play bad but was forced to hoist 42+ passes because his team couldn’t esblish the run at all (Nebraska) or he needed to try to keep pace with the 49 points his D gave up (Purdue).
Understood - but to clarify that, it actually is a true statement to say that in 2023, AK threw accurately “way more” often (or in way more games) than Gavin did. Correct? One guy hit a completion rate of over 57% in half his games. The other guy only managed to complete even half his passes (50%) 30.8% of the time. Thats a drastic difference in day to day throwing consistency.
But…that was not what was said and so strange of a statement- he had a higher % it is quite obvious that he threw more accurately more often.
You were talking about it not really being that many more passes completed on average per game, and in general not “that big” a difference in accuracy?
All I’m saying is that the blended average camouflages the impact in terms of the number of games where there was actually a very material difference. Taking the most extreme (and yes very unrealistic) example - a QB plays 3 games - has one off day and throws 0 for 20 (hypothetically) - throws 15 for 20 (75%) in the other 2 games - the blended accuracy rate of 50% doesn’t reflect that the QB in this case threw accurately in 2 of the 3 games he played in. Maybe that one opponent was just a bad match up, he wasn’t feeling 100% that day, whatever. I brought this up in relation to
Al’s suggested that we need to average 58% completion rating or better to win 10 games. I was trying to say that looking at the game by game would make more sense because whether you throw 57% or 0% in any one loss it still only counts once in the L column
The same concept is true in a different way when it comes to blended yardage. An 80 yard passing or rushing TD is nice - but it’s only getting you 7 points in one game that increases your chance of winning once - in that game only. Ten 8 eight yard pick ups for first downs gets you the same 80 yards, but arguably can help move the needle in way more games even though the average treats them the same.
The minimum completion % for a game manager QB in a dominant run heavy offense is over 60%. He has to get a lot better.
Mike Teels year 3 was at 58.2%, mostly as a game manager. He’s the baseline.
Too bad entire east coast will be asleep except for some of us on this board.
Or Game 1 of World Series goes 14 innings and no one will care. I’ll take a W over USC anyway we can. 2-0 in a 1000 year rain storm
Or Game 1 of World Series goes 14 innings and no one will care. I’ll take a W over USC anyway we can. 2-0 in a 1000 year rain storm
I only responded to “many more passes” per game.
I did not get into anything else you have built it into.
AK threw the ball 2 more times per game than GW.
That is the ONLY stat I referred to
