Was Pike watching and listening?

[RUBubba]

Heard several times that strength of schedule hurt teams either getting in or on seeding. Hope Pikiell heard it.

If the Vegas tournament works out, that would be a big help for next years SOS.

 

[fluoxetine]

I still think people misunderstand what is meant / people are bad at communicating what they mean when they say "strength of schedule matters". I lot of people seem to think that it means that the SOS matters as an absolute number as opposed to mattering when interpreting a win/loss record. SOS matters in the sense that a 22-9 record means many different things depending on SOS. It doesn't matter in the sense that having a better SOS directly helps you get in the tournament.

 

[GRU23]

If we had performed well enough to be on the bubble this year, it wasn’t going to be the SOS or OOC SOS that would’ve kept us out. Ours was actually pretty decent compared to the other bubbles. If we had the same OOC schedule level we had this year it would be perfectly fine.

 

[fluoxetine]

South Carolina has an overall NET SOS of 70, and a non-conference NET SOS of 289, and a NET of 51, and yet they are a six seed? Why? Because they won the ****ing games.

 

[RUsojo]

I still think people misunderstand what is meant / people are bad at communicating what they mean when they say "strength of schedule matters". I lot of people seem to think that it means that the SOS matters as an absolute number as opposed to mattering when interpreting a win/loss record. SOS matters in the sense that a 22-9 record means many different things depending on SOS. It doesn't matter in the sense that having a better SOS directly helps you get in the tournament.

This is how to look at it and I think this is what 95% of people understand and talk about.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

1. Strength of Schedule matters
2. Win loss record matters
3. Harder SoS makes it harder to win games

The optimal schedule for each team varies by team.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Maybe if Indiana and Iowa played an easier schedule they would be in the NCAA right now

 

[RUtix4me]

I’m sure he was and I bet he is reading this. I bet both are a revelation.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Maybe if Indiana and Iowa played an easier schedule they would be in the NCAA right now

I don’t think so. In their case it’s pretty clear they missed out because they lacked quality wins, not because of too many losses. Michigan State has the same exact record both in conference and out and got in. The difference was they beat Baylor.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I don’t think so. In their case it’s pretty clear they missed out because they lacked quality wins, not because of too many losses. Michigan State has the same exact record both in conference and out and got in. The difference was they beat Baylor.

What about Nebraska? They got in because they were 23-10

 

[Pancho1939]

You guys love harping on pkiell's scheduling. Steve Pikiell has never been hurt because of his schedule.

We missed the tournament this year because we were not good.

We missed the tournament last year because we lost to 8-20 Minnesota at Minnesota and Northwestern at Northwestern back to back in two of the last 3 games of the season . the Minnesota game in which we were up 10 with 1:15 go. we then lose the very next game against northwestern shooting 11% from 3. No non-conference win allows us to survive that.

 

[bac2therac]

Maybe if Indiana and Iowa played an easier schedule they would be in the NCAA right now

No

 

[PhillyRU]

South Carolina has an overall NET SOS of 70, and a non-conference NET SOS of 289, and a NET of 51, and yet they are a six seed? Why? Because they won the ****ing games.

Right I mean it matters if your on the bubble since it's on the team sheet, but last year if we didn't lose four Q3 games its not a source of conversation

 

[bac2therac]

You guys love harping on pkiell's scheduling. Steve Pikiell has never been hurt because of his schedule.

We missed the tournament this year because we were not good.

We missed the tournament last year because we lost to 8-20 Minnesota at Minnesota and Northwestern at Northwestern back to back in two of the last 3 games of the season . the Minnesota game in which we were up 10 with 1:15 go. we then lose the very next game against northwestern shooting 11% from 3. No non-conference win allows us to survive that.

Our 300 nc sos including no ooc win were a red flags on a resume with othe red flags

You want to have as little red flags as possible

Non conference sos hurt Pitt..hurt shu

Helped Michugan State this year

Its never one thing but its certainly a part

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

What about Nebraska? They got in because they were 23-10

Yes and they were 23-10 because they went 12-8 in conference and went to the semi-finals of the BIG tournament. And they only got an 8 seed.

Iowa and Indiana were 10-10 in the BIG and did not go far in the BIG tournament. Both ended with blow out losses.

I can almost guarantee you Nebraska would not be in right now sitting at 21-12 and 10-10 if their season ended with a blow out loss to Indiana or OSU in their tourney. They’d be in better shape than the other 2 though because they had the Purdue win and a true road win at K State.

 

[needmorecowbell]

1. Strength of Schedule matters
2. Win loss record matters
3. Harder SoS makes it harder to win games

The optimal schedule for each team varies by team.

This. Finding the sweet spot is very hard. Ultimately you just need to win games. Depending on your conference, you can do it with 18 or 22 wins. Beat enough good teams, get a couple in the road and you get in.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

No

you will be happy to hear WAB had a bad day (missed 4)

Indiana State #28 +1.9 OUT
Oklahoma #43 +1.2 OUT
Princeton #44 +1.0 OUT
Seton Hall #45 + 1.0 OUT

Boise State #47 +.9 IN
Misssissippi State #48 +.8 IN
Texas A&M #54 +.2 IN
Michigan State #55 +.2 IN

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

This. Finding the sweet spot is very hard. Ultimately you just need to win games. Depending on your conference, you can do it with 18 or 22 wins. Beat enough good teams, get a couple in the road and you get in.

my point is it isn't one way...it is a balance

 

[bac2therac]

you will be happy to hear WAB had a bad day (missed 4)

Indiana State #28 +1.9 OUT
Oklahoma #43 +1.2 OUT
Princeton #44 +1.0 OUT
Seton Hall #45 + 1.0 OUT

Boise State #47 +.9 IN
Misssissippi State #48 +.8 IN
Texas A&M #54 +.2 IN
Michigan State #55 +.2 IN

good, its not something i or the committee uses

 

[bac2therac]

Yes and they were 23-10 because they went 12-8 in conference and went to the semi-finals of the BIG tournament. And they only got an 8 seed.

Iowa and Indiana were 10-10 in the BIG and did not go far in the BIG tournament. Both ended with blow out losses.

I can almost guarantee you Nebraska would not be in right now sitting at 21-12 and 10-10 if their season ended with a blow out loss to Indiana or OSU in their tourney. They’d be in better shape than the other 2 though because they had the Purdue win and a true road win at K State.

or if you replace the Purdue win with a win at RU and they have the same 23-10 record...that non conference stuff would put them in the crosshairs of first four

for people saying it hasnt hurt Pike before, RU was going to be a 10, was a 10 was a play in 11 and then last team out....in bubble discussion all 4 years,great for RU considering history but straddling the bubble is not something I want to aspire to as goals...its not just the scheduling, its also the performance in these games

 

[RUBOB72]

Did anyone here really believe we were a good team … not a great team mind you…only a good team? In all honesty other than 3 years ago we haven’t done squat in the college basketball world. We did win some B1G games but so did many others. When we needed to win at the end of last season we didn’t . The blame was placed on Mag… this year we lost how many in a row 7 ? Mag again was the reason and this time for real. How many games did he actually play in from mid February? Time to take a good hard look.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

or if you replace the Purdue win with a win at RU and they have the same 23-10 record...that non conference stuff would put them in the crosshairs of first four

for people saying it hasnt hurt Pike before, RU was going to be a 10, was a 10 was a play in 11 and then last team out....in bubble discussion all 4 years,great for RU considering history but straddling the bubble is not something I want to aspire to as goals...its not just the scheduling, its also the performance in these games

I imagine Green is trying to make the case that Nebraska’s schedule at 21-12 would put them in better shape than Indiana or Iowa at 19-14 (assuming in a vacuum a 10-10 record with similar combinations of conference wins).

It’s probably true in this instance that Nebraska at 21-12 would’ve been ahead of a team like Iowa on the S curve. But the thing is, Nebraska’s non-conference resume was better than Iowa’s despite the weaker non-conference schedule because they actually beat better teams - it’s not just about having less losses. The pair of wins @ KState and vs Duquesne (11 seed) are better than any pair of non-conference wins on Iowa’s resume too. The problem with playing Nebraska’a schedule is when you lose 2 or more games. That didn’t happen - so they were fine. Given our track record against A-10 types, the worst possible thing we can do is make those teams our toughest games. Because if you lose in that situation your really up against a wall.

 

[NiTeKnight]

Our 300 nc sos including no ooc win were a red flags on a resume with othe red flags

You want to have as little red flags as possible

Non conference sos hurt Pitt..hurt shu

Helped Michugan State this year

Its never one thing but its certainly a part

Why is ooc schedule so important when Rutgers overall SOS according to KenPom is #18?

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Why is ooc schedule so important when Rutgers overall SOS according to KenPom is #18?

Just another metric you don’t want to stand out as an outlier.

It’s really helpful to have a win or two against field teams OOC. That’s more the issue in my view. we don’t seem to beat the St Bonnies or Princeton types anyway - so the logic of scheduling them because they are “easier” than Kansas or Duke doesn’t make sense. May as well schedule the best possible 4 “real” games. Then - we need to be smarter about the cupcakes too. We need more Bryant and Howard types at home who have a couple decent players. We can fail to show up against anyone (Stonehill, Lehigh, Bucknell) but most of the time we’re not going to be in danger of losing these games regardless. We’re better off playing a slightly better level for practice purposes.

 

[bac2therac]

Why is ooc schedule so important when Rutgers overall SOS according to KenPom is #18?

Out of conference is a seperate number listed on team sheet. Committee want to see if you challenged yourself in non conference play and picked up quality victories

 

[LotusAggressor]

Ultimately, you have to win games.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Out of conference is a seperate number listed on team sheet. Committee want to see if you challenged yourself in non conference play and picked up quality victories

That last part is the big one. And when thinking about the definition of “quality”, wins against the field is a huge “sub metric”. It didn’t matter this year - but our OOC schedule was awful in this respect. Miss State only opportunity vs the field.

If you take Michigan and Georgetown out of the picture - we won 5 of 18 against BIG teams (3 wins vs the field) and only 1 of 4 against “real” OOC teams (no wins vs the field). The BIG competition was much harder on average and we won a greater percentage of games. Actual results do not support a conclusion that we would’ve got shut out if those 4 non-conference games were against better teams.

We didn’t have a bubble caliber team. It’s not surprising we went 0-4 vs seeds 1 and 3 teams. But guess what - we went 3-4 vs NCAA seeds 5-9. So we didn’t fair better against teams with pulses below the cut line. We actually went 3-8 against Princeton and the major conference teams not in the field (excluding Georgetown and Michigan because those teams were basically like Bryant).

 

[bac2therac]

That last part is the big one. And when thinking about the definition of “quality”, wins against the field is a huge “sub metric”. It didn’t matter this year - but our OOC schedule was awful in this respect. Miss State only opportunity vs the field.

If you take Michigan and Georgetown out of the picture - we won 5 of 18 against BIG teams (3 wins vs the field) and only 1 of 4 against “real” OOC teams (no wins vs the field). The BIG competition was much harder on average and we won a greater percentage of games. Actual results do not support a conclusion that we would’ve got shut out if those 4 non-conference games were against better teams.

We didn’t have a bubble caliber team. It’s not surprising we went 0-4 vs seeds 1 and 3 teams. But guess what - we went 3-4 vs NCAA seeds 5-9. So we didn’t fair better against teams with pulses below the cut line. We actually went 3-8 against Princeton and the major conference teams not in the field (excluding Georgetown and Michigan because those teams were basically like Bryant).

if we beat Miss State and Princeton on neutral and won at Wake our resume would be significantly better...true the latter 2 were not tourney teams but close to tourney teams...i mean that would put us at 18-13.....we have a win over SHU as well.....if we flipped two more conference games (Maryland and Penn State) at home to finish 9-11 in league our 20-11 record would have us right near the cut line heading into the Big 10 tourney.

Q1: 4-9, Q2: 5-3, Q3: 4-0......now likely with the bid stealers we wouldnt go but we would have no bad losses, 9-12 Q1/2 , 13-12 Q1/2/3 puts us right there but I think in this case its lacking that one big conference win at home or on the road...we would have needed to be Illinois at home or Wisky/Nebby on road to finish 10-10 in league 21-10 overall.....Q1 5-8 that would put us 10-11 Q1/2 and 14-11 Q1/2...thats how you get in with how we scheduled this year which was okay but not great..you need 20 plus wins

unless you schedule like msu, you are not getting in with 18-19 win from this league

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

if we beat Miss State and Princeton on neutral and won at Wake our resume would be significantly better...true the latter 2 were not tourney teams but close to tourney teams...i mean that would put us at 18-13.....we have a win over SHU as well.....if we flipped two more conference games (Maryland and Penn State) at home to finish 9-11 in league our 20-11 record would have us right near the cut line heading into the Big 10 tourney.

Q1: 4-9, Q2: 5-3, Q3: 4-0......now likely with the bid stealers we wouldnt go but we would have no bad losses, 9-12 Q1/2 , 13-12 Q1/2/3 puts us right there but I think in this case its lacking that one big conference win at home or on the road...we would have needed to be Illinois at home or Wisky/Nebby on road to finish 10-10 in league 21-10 overall.....Q1 5-8 that would put us 10-11 Q1/2 and 14-11 Q1/2...thats how you get in with how we scheduled this year which was okay but not great..you need 20 plus wins

unless you schedule like msu, you are not getting in with 18-19 win from this league

So in other words - your saying, we would’ve been better positioned if we “won out” our entire non-conference schedule including beating the one OOC team we played that made the field? Well, yeah.

That’s basically what Nebraska did except they lost their one game against the at large field to Creighton. If Nebraska won out their non-conference, 10-10 probably would’ve punched their ticket too - no?

It’s really hard to win out a full non-conference schedule though (2020-21 doesn’t count). When else have we ever done it - even playing historically soft schedules?

 

[fluoxetine]

So in other words - your saying, we would’ve been better positioned if we “won out” our entire non-conference schedule including beating the one OOC team we played that made the field? Well, yeah.

That’s basically what Nebraska did except they lost their one game against the at large field to Creighton. If Nebraska won out their non-conference, 10-10 probably would’ve punched their ticket too - no?

It’s really hard to win out a full non-conference schedule though (2020-21 doesn’t count). When else have we ever done it - even playing historically soft schedules?

Even if you play 11 games you are 95% in that’s still almost 50% to lose one game.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Even if you play 11 games you are 95% in that’s still almost 50% to lose one game.

No easier historic OOC schedule than Pike’s first year. We lost 2 games - but that was a bad team. I don’t know how to run the numbers but I wonder what our 2019-20 team’s odds would’ve been to win out against the 2016-17 schedule. My guess is it still wouldn’t be that likely.