It's all speculation, but looking at 2015 season tickets sold of
31,168 and then comparing projected 2019 of 16,752 season tickets sold, that equates to a loss over 4 years of $7,208,000, or $1,802,000/year.
2015 was a 4 win season, and we saw a 8.6% drop in sales in 2016.
2016 was a 2 win season, and we saw a 16.4% drop in sales in 2017.
2017 was a 4 win season, and we saw a 6.2% drop in sales in 2018.
Note the very large drop after the horrible 2016 season.
1-11 will likely produce a drop in sales of at least 20%, and probably 25%.
It is not that difficult to project, and someone could have looked at UConn's numbers for further guidance.
The unknown is if Ash was canned at end of 2018, would we still see a huge drop in season ticket sales in 2019.
My point was that the cumulative losses are actually much higher. Some calculations below, intended to calculate the total loss since Hobbs / Ash were hired. I'll assume $400 per season ticket, which is more conservative in this analysis. Using that figure, the revenues have dropped almost $13.5 million over four years. Note that if you stuck with $500 per ticket, that number would be $16.81 million.
The problem is that the customers lost in 2016 never came back, so they hit as losses every year.
From your figures:
In 2015, Rutgers sold 31,168 season tickets.
In 2016, Rutgers sold 28,478 season ticket.
-8.6%
In 2017, Rutgers sold 23,812 season tickets.
-16.4%
In 2018, Rutgers sold 22,337 season tickets.
-6.2% (-28.3% from 2015)
2019 Projection- sell 16,752 season tickets.
-25% (-46.3% from 2015)
Calculation:
2015: 31,168 * $400 = $12,467,200
2016: 28,478 * $400 = $11,391,200 (loss of $1.08 million)
2017: 23,812 * $400 = $9,524,800 (loss of $2.94 million from baseline 2015 number; cumulative loss of $4.02 million)
2018: 22,337 * $400 = $8,934,800 (loss of $3.66 million from baseline 2015; cumulative loss of $7.68 million)
2019:
projected 16,752 * $400 = $6,700,800 (loss of $5.77 million from baseline 2015;
cumulative loss of $13.45 million)
Another way of looking at it is that since Hobbs kept Ash at end of 2018 season, approx $2.2 million in additional revenue has been lost, and $5.7 million will be lost this year alone as compared to before Ash was hired.
