Weather for IL @ RU: Seasonable, Dry and Breezy

[RU848789]

Still a week out, so a fair amount of uncertainty at this point, but after hopefully getting some beneficial rain on Thursday (1/2" or so possible), the low pressure system responsible will move towards the Canadian Maritimes, but there will be some instability in its wake, which could lead to a few showers Friday into Saturday. Right now, no models are showing more than 0.1" of rain on Saturday and most are dry, but it's too early to bank on a dry day (but a washout is not in the cards at all). Temps will be seasonable (53/33F is the normal spread for 11/23) with morning lows in the mid-30s and highs around 50F with partly cloudy skies most of the time; could be a little breezy too. Football weather. The stadium better be rockin' as we look to go 7-4.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=230&y=80&site=phi&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=230&map_y=80

 

[RU-Kidding]

Still a week out, so a fair amount of uncertainty at this point, but after hopefully getting some beneficial rain on Thursday (1/2" or so possible), the low pressure system responsible will move towards the Canadian Maritimes, but there will be some instability in its wake, which could lead to a few showers Friday into Saturday. Right now, no models are showing more than 0.1" of rain on Saturday and most are dry, but it's too early to bank on a dry day (but a washout is not in the cards at all). Temps will be seasonable (53/33F is the normal spread for 11/23) with morning lows in the mid-30s and highs around 50F with partly cloudy skies most of the time; could be a little breezy too. Football weather. The stadium better be rockin' as we look to go 7-4.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=230&y=80&site=phi&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=230&map_y=80

Thx! Good job.

Just our luck in the middle of a months long drought we previously got some light rain/ mist the night of the Washington game and potentially some for Saturday. LOL

 

[RU848789]

Thx! Good job.

Just our luck in the middle of a months long drought we previously got some light rain/ mist the night of the Washington game and potentially some for Saturday. LOL

Well, the rain for the UW tailgates/game was truly just nuisance rain (<0.05" total) with almost all of that falling well before the game, so I don't look at that one as "bad" weather at all, especially when it was warm enough for shorts and a t-shirt that night.

Also, while there may be a couple of light showers on Saturday any that fall will be light (likely <0.05"), although unlike that UW game any rain falling while it's in the 40s with breezy conditions will be a bit more uncomfortable than a few showers at 70F with light winds.

 

[RUPete]

All in all, can’t complain about that forecast for a late November game.

 

[RUDeac]

No rain no wind please

 

[DJ Spanky]

No rain no wind please

It's looking like a good possibility for the former, but the latter.........................hey, it's Busch!

 

[RU848789]

Still a week out, so a fair amount of uncertainty at this point, but after hopefully getting some beneficial rain on Thursday (1/2" or so possible), the low pressure system responsible will move towards the Canadian Maritimes, but there will be some instability in its wake, which could lead to a few showers Friday into Saturday. Right now, no models are showing more than 0.1" of rain on Saturday and most are dry, but it's too early to bank on a dry day (but a washout is not in the cards at all). Temps will be seasonable (53/33F is the normal spread for 11/23) with morning lows in the mid-30s and highs around 50F with partly cloudy skies most of the time; could be a little breezy too. Football weather. The stadium better be rockin' as we look to go 7-4.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=230&y=80&site=phi&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=230&map_y=80

Most models show no rain at all on Saturday, but one shows about 0.05" through late Saturday morning, so can't quite say it's a lock for totally dry tailgate/game conditions, but confidence is pretty high in totally dry conditions, especially for the game and there is zero chance of significant (>0.1") of rain. Definitely looks to be a chilly/cold morning with lows in the mid-30s and temps rebounding to around 50F during the game with partly sunny skies, most of the time, but we'll see clouds come and go. Also, a good possibility of at least breezy conditions with 10-15 mph winds; hopefully the fairly gusty winds from Friday will have abated. That's late November football weather.

FYI, fortunately, the region will be getting some much needed significant rain from late Weds through Thursday (1/2-1" for most) withthe primary storm and there will still be some some instability driven light showers on Friday. In addition, we're likely to see the first snow of the season for the Poconos/far NW NJ and the Catskills on Thursday as the rain changes to snow, especially in the higher elevations with a few inches possible (and some snow showers likely on Friday).

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
910 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2024

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A large upper level low will approach from the Great Lakes,
meandering over the Northeast US through at least some of the
weekend. This will bring a period of near or below normal
temperatures through the end of the week and into the weekend as
well as some rain.

First period of rain comes Wednesday night, with widespread rain
expected as secondary area of low pressure develops along a boundary
draped over the region. Rainfall amounts look to be around a half
inch to an inch, as this will be a much needed rain.

Thursday through Friday will be unsettled with gusty winds as a
tight gradient sets up with an expansive area of low pressure to the
north over New England and high pressure to the southwest. Several
shortwaves will rotate around the base of the upper level low,
bringing the potential for some rain (and even some potential snow
in the higher elevations) showers through both days. Not expecting
any showers to be as heavy as the rain Wednesday night, but expected
dreary and blustery conditions to close out the week.

The upper level low and associated surface low slowly pull away by
the weekend. Drier air works in on the backside of the system and
the weekend at this time looks mainly dry with temperatures near
normal for late November.

 

[DJ Spanky]

FYI, fortunately, the region will be getting some much needed significant rain from late Weds through Thursday (1/2-1" for most)

Will the amount of rain have any effect on the availability of Johnson Park for parking on Saturday?

 

[RU848789]

Will the amount of rain have any effect on the availability of Johnson Park for parking on Saturday?

Not with how dry it has been - an inch of rain should be easily soaked up by the dry ground/vegetation, especially with windy, mostly dry conditions after Thursday to further dry things out.

 

[RU848789]

Most models show no rain at all on Saturday, but one shows about 0.05" through late Saturday morning, so can't quite say it's a lock for totally dry tailgate/game conditions, but confidence is pretty high in totally dry conditions, especially for the game and there is zero chance of significant (>0.1") of rain. Definitely looks to be a chilly/cold morning with lows in the mid-30s and temps rebounding to around 50F during the game with partly sunny skies, most of the time, but we'll see clouds come and go. Also, a good possibility of at least breezy conditions with 10-15 mph winds; hopefully the fairly gusty winds from Friday will have abated. That's late November football weather.

FYI, fortunately, the region will be getting some much needed significant rain from late Weds through Thursday (1/2-1" for most) withthe primary storm and there will still be some some instability driven light showers on Friday. In addition, we're likely to see the first snow of the season for the Poconos/far NW NJ and the Catskills on Thursday as the rain changes to snow, especially in the higher elevations with a few inches possible (and some snow showers likely on Friday).

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
910 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2024

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A large upper level low will approach from the Great Lakes,
meandering over the Northeast US through at least some of the
weekend. This will bring a period of near or below normal
temperatures through the end of the week and into the weekend as
well as some rain.

First period of rain comes Wednesday night, with widespread rain
expected as secondary area of low pressure develops along a boundary
draped over the region. Rainfall amounts look to be around a half
inch to an inch, as this will be a much needed rain.

Thursday through Friday will be unsettled with gusty winds as a
tight gradient sets up with an expansive area of low pressure to the
north over New England and high pressure to the southwest. Several
shortwaves will rotate around the base of the upper level low,
bringing the potential for some rain (and even some potential snow
in the higher elevations) showers through both days. Not expecting
any showers to be as heavy as the rain Wednesday night, but expected
dreary and blustery conditions to close out the week.

The upper level low and associated surface low slowly pull away by
the weekend. Drier air works in on the backside of the system and
the weekend at this time looks mainly dry with temperatures near
normal for late November.

None of the major global models still shows any rain for CNJ on Saturday, so it should be a lock for no rain, correct? Well, a couple of models do show some light showers/sprinkles in NNJ/Hudson Valley/NEPA and while the NWS-Philly is carrying a <10% chance of any rain for northern Middlesex County for Saturday (and the rest of CNJ), the NWS-NYC is in disagreement, showing a 30% chance of a light shower or two (~0.01", which is nuisance level) for nearby Union County and Staten Island so hard to say a spritz or a sprinkle isn't possible for us.

But I'd bet on it being completely dry for the tailgates and game with temps in the upper 30s at sunrise, topping out around 50F for the game. However, as feared, the forecast has gotten windier with 10-15 mph winds, with gusts to 25 mph, especially during the game, which will certainly make it feel colder. No reason people can't just bundle up a bit and go to the game with football weather like that, though, especially for a 6-4 team coming off of 2 straight wins to become bowl eligible.

As an aside, it's still looking like 1/2-1" of rain for CNJ from late Weds thru Thursday and 1-1.5" north of about I-80 in PA/NJ/NY, which is great news for everyone. And we're likely to see the first accumulating snow for the Poconos, far NW Sussex and the Catskills as the rain turns to snow Thursday night, especially in the higher elevations (could be several inches in the Catskills) and we might even see some mood flakes in our area, as per some models.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Thx! Good job.

Just our luck in the middle of a months long drought we previously got some light rain/ mist the night of the Washington game and potentially some for Saturday. LOL

Ain’t gonna rain Saturday …we got this!

 

[DJ Spanky]

Ain’t gonna rain Saturday …we got this!

I'll be prepared to cover my scotch glass just in case!

 

[AreYouNUTS]

I'll be prepared to cover my scotch glass just in case!

You’re weird

 

[DJ Spanky]

You’re weird

For not wanting my scotch to become too watered down? Guilty as charged!

 

[RUPete]

Can’t complain about this forecast at all and glad we are getting some rain midweek.

 

[RU848789]

None of the major global models still shows any rain for CNJ on Saturday, so it should be a lock for no rain, correct? Well, a couple of models do show some light showers/sprinkles in NNJ/Hudson Valley/NEPA and while the NWS-Philly is carrying a <10% chance of any rain for northern Middlesex County for Saturday (and the rest of CNJ), the NWS-NYC is in disagreement, showing a 30% chance of a light shower or two (~0.01", which is nuisance level) for nearby Union County and Staten Island so hard to say a spritz or a sprinkle isn't possible for us.

But I'd bet on it being completely dry for the tailgates and game with temps in the upper 30s at sunrise, topping out around 50F for the game. However, as feared, the forecast has gotten windier with 10-15 mph winds, with gusts to 25 mph, especially during the game, which will certainly make it feel colder. No reason people can't just bundle up a bit and go to the game with football weather like that, though, especially for a 6-4 team coming off of 2 straight wins to become bowl eligible.

As an aside, it's still looking like 1/2-1" of rain for CNJ from late Weds thru Thursday and 1-1.5" north of about I-80 in PA/NJ/NY, which is great news for everyone. And we're likely to see the first accumulating snow for the Poconos, far NW Sussex and the Catskills as the rain turns to snow Thursday night, especially in the higher elevations (could be several inches in the Catskills) and we might even see some mood flakes in our area, as per some models.

Well, the good news is that the NWS-NYC is now much better aligned with the NWS-Philly with both offices showing very little chance of any rain on Saturday (since today's 12Z models show no rain for almost all of the Philly-NJ-NYC area on Sat) and even the precip well NW of our area on Saturday will be just a few light rain/snow showers, so it's not like we're close to some heavy (or even moderate) precip source should the forecast change a bit.

AccuWeather, WeatherUnderground and Lee Goldberg all agree that Saturday should be dry, so let's lock it up for a partly cloudy, dry, but breezy (10-15 mph with some gusts to 20-25 mph possible) day with temps in the upper 30s at sunrise and around 50F for the game. Even if we see a surprise sprinkle or two, it wouldn't be enough to be measurable (<0.01").