What is abundantly clear

[RUSCFORMERLYRULOU]

It is clear from Richie’s podcasts that no one of note is coming next year via the portal.
Pike himself has said no changes on staff and its going to be the same ol mess.
Thus, the results will be the same. And pike will be fired after next year. That is abundantly clear.
Then the question becomes - who will come to RU that js the schiano equivalent in BB in terms of raising NIL fumds.

 

[RUJMM78]

Its not abundantly clear that Pikiell will be fired next year .He has a long term contract with a expensive buy out clause.As to team performance it will be dependent on the number of easy out of conference games scheduled and winning at least five home games against B1G Ten rivals,Yes, it will be another disappointing season with no NCAA bid.

 

[KnightTerrors]

$5M budget but it’s abundantly clear no notable transfers are coming? What?

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

It is clear from Richie’s podcasts that no one of note is coming next year via the portal.
Pike himself has said no changes on staff and its going to be the same ol mess.
Thus, the results will be the same. And pike will be fired after next year. That is abundantly clear.
Then the question becomes - who will come to RU that js the schiano equivalent in BB in terms of raising NIL fumds.

Nothing is abundantly clear other than that as of right now, the only transfers out there taking an interest in official visits to Rutgers so far are lower tier guys. Richie didn’t say anything at all about what it’s going to cost us to land the two guys visiting. In my opinion, that is what matters most because there will be very good players coming and going in the portal through the summer.

The tone of the TKR podcast is disappointment with where we are right now, but in no way did they report that that they know the guys were look at are going to be our top dogs. Let’s see what happens.

Note the difference for the record - the above was just Richie and crew showing pessimistic outlook based on where things stand right now - no factual statements were made. They’ve been wrong before in predictions plenty of times - for example they didn’t think Caleb would stay for his Covid year.

Very different from when they reported that Lathan asked Pike for 7 figures to stay here. They would not make a statement like that up.

 

[scarletrat]

and I thought shoe's roster last year was dreadful....ours is shaping up to be worse...

 

[RUChoppin]

I think many teams are also wising up that it is to their benefit to pay to retain players rather than to let them go and roll the dice in the portal.

 

[Mr Magoo]

It is clear from Richie’s podcasts that no one of note is coming next year via the portal.
Pike himself has said no changes on staff and its going to be the same ol mess.
Thus, the results will be the same. And pike will be fired after next year. That is abundantly clear.
Then the question becomes - who will come to RU that js the schiano equivalent in BB in terms of raising NIL fumds.

One year too long but we can thank Hobbs for that.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

and I thought shoe's roster last year was dreadful....ours is shaping up to be worse...

Nothing is shaping up - at least not yet… if we find out that we offer that pair (Buchanan and Francis) $1M+ of our pot to come play for us it’s time to get worried. If those two sign on for a combined $400k we could be in pretty good shape down the road ironically.

In that case we would have presumably spent only $1.5 M of our ~$5M budget of 4 frosh, 4 returning guys, and 2 transfers (a possible starting wing and a back up PG). That would mean we’d have 10 scholarship players - and no stars yet with $3.5 M to work with. I’d have to believe that’s enough money to buy a very good inside and an outside player after the initial dust settles. We could then use whatever is left over to add one or two more guys.

 

[stribucher]

Pike probably has 2 years because of the costly long term contract. However, things are looking bleak. Unless they are secretly meeting with quality transfers, we are likely to be bad next year. All the goodwill from 2019 - 2022 is gone with Pike. The frustrating thing is that teams in the tournament are signing transfers while we have nothing.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Since the TKR guys sound deflated and it coms across as if it seems to them the guys were going after are the best we can get - I do wish they’d address the following:

1) If that’s true - do they think we’ll spend the entire $5 M allocation?

2) If yes - is it that the market for a collection of guys like Francis will actually cost that? If so, we should just run with an all frosh roster because the outcome will be the same anyway and way cheaper.

3) If not - where do they think the money will get used if we’re not bringing anyone who costs much. If we add these 2 guys we’d already be at 10 scholarship players. How much budget would we have left?

The 3rd question in my opinion is what matters most. Money talks. Maybe we’re holding out for the first wave because we think we’ll get better value later on in the cycle. Isn’t that at least possible?

 

[ouchmyknee]

This is why having a GM with player valuation experience is so important in the current landscape. Our only shot at being competitive is evolving into an analytics-driven program that finds under the radar kids who can deliver maximum ROI on performance. Think Houston Astros model. We need to assign a dollar value to the players and pay up to that value. We're not a program that can afford to overpay.

 

[darkcheck]

This is why having a GM with player valuation experience is so important in the current landscape. Our only shot at being competitive is evolving into an analytics-driven program that finds under the radar kids who can deliver maximum ROI on performance. Think Houston Astros model. We need to assign a dollar value to the players and pay up to that value. We're not a program that can afford to overpay.

Pike will not relinquish player eval control. Gm will be a pencil pusher and fund raiser

 

[darkcheck]

It is clear from Richie’s podcasts that no one of note is coming next year via the portal.
Pike himself has said no changes on staff and its going to be the same ol mess.
Thus, the results will be the same. And pike will be fired after next year. That is abundantly clear.
Then the question becomes - who will come to RU that js the schiano equivalent in BB in terms of raising NIL fumds.

Next year will not be the same. It will be worse. Pike will be here multiple years yet because of that contract.

 

[TRU2RU]

It is clear from Richie’s podcasts that no one of note is coming next year via the portal.
Pike himself has said no changes on staff and its going to be the same ol mess.
Thus, the results will be the same. And pike will be fired after next year. That is abundantly clear.
Then the question becomes - who will come to RU that js the schiano equivalent in BB in terms of raising NIL fumds.

What is abundantly clear is the neither you nor Ritchie have any clue who will be on the team next season nor how good or bad RU will be

 

[bitnez]

What’s clear to some may not be clear to others so I’ll just leave that there. It is fact though that not a single notable high end portal player has been tied to RU as of yet. Sure, it could change and maybe Pike puts together a bunch of guys with chips on their shoulders for not getting real money in the portal. But, that’s unlikely when all our peers are loading up and we’re on the sidelines. And let’s not ignore that we don’t have a new HC and staff playing catch up because everyone jumped with a coaching change. We have an experienced long time HC (and staff) so our program is known. Even if we have $4-5 mil it appears no one wants it.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

What’s clear to some may not be clear to others so I’ll just leave that there. It is fact though that not a single notable high end portal player has been tied to RU as of yet. Sure, it could change and maybe Pike puts together a bunch of guys with chips on their shoulders for not getting real money in the portal. But, that’s unlikely when all our peers are loading up and we’re on the sidelines. And let’s not ignore that we don’t have a new HC and staff playing catch up because everyone jumped with a coaching change. We have an experienced long time HC (and staff) so our program is known. Even if we have $4-5 mil it appears no one wants it.

That’s the big question. It can’t simultaneously be true that we can’t get good players because we have no money, but we also can’t seem to spend the money that we have (unless we’re planning to overpay for a bunch of bad / unproven guys like Francis just to use the allocation).

Something has to give.

 

[Mholinko]

$5M budget but it’s abundantly clear no notable transfers are coming? What?

Does anyone understand yet that 5 million is very very low for a P4 school?

 

[darkcheck]

Does anyone understand yet that 5 million is very very low for a P4 school?

P5 since the big east passes us too

 

[darkcheck]

That’s the big question. It can’t simultaneously be true that we can’t get good players because we have no money, but we also can’t seem to spend the money that we have (unless we’re planning to overpay for a bunch of bad / unproven guys like Francis just to use the allocation).

Something has to give.

Yes we’re just going to get scraps, and probably overpay for those because they fit the current flawed staffs evals. All of a sudden banking the money for next year and having a $10mm budget doesn’t sound so bad.

 

[Mholinko]

P5 since the big east passes us too

You’re right even better.

We’re in the bottom 20% spending wise and the company we’re keeping are equally non competitive programs who also aren’t going to win

 

[darkcheck]

You’re right even better.

We’re in the bottom 20% spending wise and the company we’re keeping are equally non competitive programs who also aren’t going to win

So very sad. I thought we were on our way just 3-4 years ago. Now I don’t see being good again going forward.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

You’re right even better.

We’re in the bottom 20% spending wise and the company we’re keeping are equally non competitive programs who also aren’t going to win

First of all, no. We’re not in the bottom 20% of D1. Maybe of P5 teams, but even still - if we’re at $5M in the 20th percentile, the 40th percentile is what, $5.5M, $6M? Few teams are handing 15 guys $1M+ each for depth. We should still be able to purchase a couple good players with the money we do have.

 

[RRRRUUUU]

Pike is waiting until the profit sharing is official to buy guys in the portal. He alluded to that on the recco interview

 

[RU677381]

What is abundantly clear is the neither you nor Ritchie have any clue who will be on the team next season nor how good or bad RU will be

 

[Mholinko]

First of all, no. We’re not in the bottom 20% of D1. Maybe of P5 teams, but even still - if we’re at $5M in the 20th percentile, the 40th percentile is what, $5.5M, $6M? Few teams are handing 15 guys $1M+ each for depth. We should still be able to purchase a couple good players with the money we do have.

I never said D1 I’ve been speaking about P4 or P5 the entire time … do you really wanna pound your chest that we have more money than Akron and St Joes anyway if I was?

And you’re right there aren’t many handing each of the starting 5 1m + each

The 40th percentile of P5 teams STILL aren’t likely tournament teams for the most part

I imagine you want to be in the top 40% to feel confident you can field a good roster year over year not bottom

The teams who made the second weekend this year all had war chests and if they didn’t they spent it all on 5 great players and hoped for good health like Maryland

 

[gigantor1024]

What is abundantly clear is NIL sucks ass

 

[darkcheck]

First of all, no. We’re not in the bottom 20% of D1. Maybe of P5 teams, but even still - if we’re at $5M in the 20th percentile, the 40th percentile is what, $5.5M, $6M? Few teams are handing 15 guys $1M+ each for depth. We should still be able to purchase a couple good players with the money we do have.

We should but they also have to want to come here. Most probably dream of playing in the NCAAs. We just proved in dramatic fashion we can’t get you there. We just broadcast every game is going to be a rock fight, many recruits will be like “no thanks”. Everyone Thinks they’re Steph Curry. Also if you have more than one year of eligibility left it’s known Pike may be on the hot seat.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Pike is waiting until the profit sharing is official to buy guys in the portal. He alluded to that on the recco interview

If that’s true, and the 2 guys visiting this weekend are considering us off of tiny NIL deals that would be fantastic news.

 

[darkcheck]

Pike is waiting until the profit sharing is official to buy guys in the portal. He alluded to that on the recco interview

Others aren’t. We’ll be picking thru scraps

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

We should but they also have to want to come here. Most probably dream of playing in the NCAAs. We just proved in dramatic fashion we can’t get you there. We just broadcast every game is going to be a rock fight, many recruits will be like “no thanks”. Everyone Thinks they’re Steph Curry. Also if you have more than one year of eligibility left it’s known Pike may be on the hot seat.

I doubt it. Washington sucked this year and spent a fortune to do it too. They are having no trouble ringing in players. Money talks. We just haven’t offered enough of it yet.

 

[darkcheck]

I doubt it. Washington sucked this year and spent a fortune to do it too. They are having no trouble ringing in players. Money talks. We just haven’t offered enough of it yet.

I agree money talks. We don’t have as much as wash

 

[Smols]

Others aren’t. We’ll be picking thru scraps

Well, I mean, we'll be picking through scraps anyway. So it'l be the leftovers of scraps.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I agree money talks. We don’t have as much as wash

Washington hasn’t just secured one player. They keep landing players which means it isn’t about playing in the NCAAs. It’s the money. You can’t have it both ways.

All the pessimism out there still fails to explain why we won’t be able to afford 2 very good players. We should be able to with $5M. That might not be enough to build a winning program, but right now the podcast basically implies that Buchanan and Francis are the best of who are in our budget which I simply can’t understand. Nobody has provided much explanation that makes sense except possibly if we are waiting for official confirmation of the allocation.

 

[RUChoppin]

That’s the big question. It can’t simultaneously be true that we can’t get good players because we have no money, but we also can’t seem to spend the money that we have (unless we’re planning to overpay for a bunch of bad / unproven guys like Francis just to use the allocation).

Something has to give.

It can be true.

The portal is not the only place to spend money. You also spend money on freshmen and on retention, which are less flashy and take more time.

If other teams are spending more than us on freshmen and retention, than there will be fewer "starting caliber" products in the portal to choose from for any given year. And many of those either a) won't fit our needs, or b) are exorbitantly costly.

If you aren't bringing in talent, and you're letting the talent you previously brought in walk out the door, it's not always so easy to just pluck talent from the portal - it's not a grocery store. Other teams have to let that talent walk first - and I think more teams are realizing this and spending to keep their talent, rather than letting it slip away.

Every team that realizes that and invests in retention is 1-2 fewer starting-caliber guys that other teams have available to choose from in the portal.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

It can be true.

The portal is not the only place to spend money. You also spend money on freshmen and on retention, which are less flashy and take more time.

If other teams are spending more than us on freshmen and retention, than there will be fewer "starting caliber" products in the portal to choose from for any given year. And many of those either a) won't fit our needs, or b) are exorbitantly costly.

If you aren't bringing in talent, and you're letting the talent you previously brought in walk out the door, it's not always so easy to just pluck talent from the portal - it's not a grocery store. Other teams have to let that talent walk first - and I think more teams are realizing this and spending to keep their talent, rather than letting it slip away.

Every team that realizes that and invests in retention is 1-2 fewer starting-caliber guys that other teams have available to choose from in the portal.

But we know what we have max from retention and frosh already. It’s 8 players total. Even with overvaluing their likely worth at a combined $2M we still have about a $3M allocation left over for 2025.

 

[RUChoppin]

But we know what we have max from retention and frosh already. It’s 8 players total. Even with overvaluing their likely worth at a combined $2M we still have about a $3M allocation left over for 2025.

Just because we have money to spend, doesn't mean other teams haven't already spent money to retain impact guys we'd have pursued. What ends up in the portal might not be what fits our need... or we might get outbid even with available cash.

We're in a hole and we're trying to climb out. There are no simple answers or binary choices.

 

[bac2therac]

Pike is waiting until the profit sharing is official to buy guys in the portal. He alluded to that on the recco interview

Then he is a fool

 

[RUChoppin]

And all of the estimations about what a competitive price is for the players we want (or even what guys end up getting after committing somewhere) are based on little more than hearsay - we're not going to really know what the market truly looks like for the types of guys the staff is targeting.

 

[Mholinko]

And all of the estimations about what a competitive price is for the players we want (or even what guys end up getting after committing somewhere) are based on little more than hearsay - we're not going to really know what the market truly looks like for the types of guys the staff is targeting.

This is the mentality of ppl who believe we have everything we need support wise and don’t need another penny, a new coach, etc

There is PLENTY of data out there to suggest we’re not competitive enough monetarily and don’t have a strong culture to overcome that

The teams overcoming financial burdens have dynamite coaches with winning cultures and thus superb retention rates for recruited players

We have none of that

 

[RUChoppin]

This is the mentality of ppl who believe we have everything we need support wise and don’t need another penny, a new coach, etc

There is PLENTY of data out there to suggest we’re not competitive enough monetarily and don’t have a strong culture to overcome that

The teams overcoming financial burdens have dynamite coaches with winning cultures and thus superb retention rates for recruited players

We have none of that

You're reading the opposite of my intent.

People saying that we can get a player that meets X need for "only" Y dollars don't have anything to support that statement.

We don't know what's being asked for, offered by other programs, or even agreed on - it's a black box, and the only thing we know for sure is who goes into the portal, and where they end up.