TheKnightReport - What is the Rutgers Football over/under for wins in 2024?
What is Rutgers Football's over/under for wins in the 2024 season?
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Football What is the Rutgers Football over/under for wins in 2024?
- Thread starter Richie O
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Using the term "natty" is a jinx. Over/under now 3. What are you 14?
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Yikes. 6.5 is really low considering the easier schedule and an upgrade at QB.
Not really. It’s true we don’t have PSU, OSU or Michigan this year, but it’s not like those games were replaced by Wagners. Washington, USC and UCLA are hardly automatic wins. They just aren’t automatic losses.
Also remember - we caught NW at a very good time last season fresh off of scandal. VTech too - depleted by injuries. Thats a much harder game this season than it was last year at their place.
Here's the thing: it has yet to be proven that this is an upgrade at QB. Just because he's a better passer doesn't mean that the OL is now going to give him more time back there, or that the receivers are now going to be routinely getting separation from their defenders.
I’m just saying - I don’t get where the “yikes” is coming from. UCLA and USC won 8 games last season. Wash was the national runner up. These are hardly replacement games where RU is going to be favored. The only difference is, our chance of pulling an upset no longer rounds to zero. But the chance of the VTech game going the other way this time is probably greater than the chance of us knocking off one of those teams. The difference to move us to 8, in my opinion, has to be replacing that Iowa loss with a win and netting even on the rest by either beating VTech again or pulling one of those upsets. 6.5 seems like the right line overall - similar outcome to last year overall. We’ve never won at Nebraska. Maybe we can finally beat Minny?
I think a concern is that our offensive strategy last year (and presumably next year?) isn't exactly repeatable.
We were a bad offense last year.
Extremely run heavy, low scoring
Low yards per play and extremely low number of plays per game.
Despite this, we won 8 games.
I think a regression is a serious possibility if the offense isn't much better next year.
The questions are:
Was the offense limited by the QB or was the offense limited intentionally by the coaching staff?
Does a different QB matter or will the general philosophy be the same?
Doesn't need to be 40 passes a game but we need to move significantly towards a more balanced offense at a minimum.
We were a bad offense last year.
Extremely run heavy, low scoring
Low yards per play and extremely low number of plays per game.
Despite this, we won 8 games.
I think a regression is a serious possibility if the offense isn't much better next year.
The questions are:
Was the offense limited by the QB or was the offense limited intentionally by the coaching staff?
Does a different QB matter or will the general philosophy be the same?
Doesn't need to be 40 passes a game but we need to move significantly towards a more balanced offense at a minimum.
I’m hoping that the mere threat of a short pass to the sides bursting through for a big post catch play will open things up in KC’s offense. It’s hard to assess the impact not having this had or didn’t have on the offense.
Yikes comes from we won 7 games and UCLA, USC and Wash U is < OSU, PSU and Mich. we also got an upgrade at QB. 6.5 is really disappointing. Quick pull to see if everyone will be happy with 7 wins again with what we have coming back.
Can’t regress on offenses when you bring in a new QB. That would be a bad look for the staff.
With the Washington game at Rutgers, straight up, do you bet that we win or lose?
Yikes! Al hijacked Knight's account!!
We went from literally the worst, statistically, graded QB to someone NOT the worst, statistically, graded QB in the country. That equals an upgrade.
It’s a good betting opportunity, which is the point of these over/unders.
But it's clear that the coaches think it's an upgrade. It's rarely a bad thing when the coaches have their pick and a newcomer beats out the starter.
Does anyone or everyone agree we have the number one RB in the conference again with a very good supporting cast?Are we deeper at WR? Will the defense give us good field position opportunities and more turnovers? These all should mean better overall performance.
Again - I’m still not understanding the Yikes. Vegas is still going to project us losing all 3 of those game, just by a closer margin (and no, they aren’t going to be close to pickem games either. When your talking about win and loss count, 0-3 is still 0-3 unless you pull off the upset, and as I said, these would still be upsets, not the expected outcome (I.e. not games we should be projected to win and include in the win count).
As for the 7 wins - we caught NW at home at the most favorable time possible coming off massive scandal. VTech was home too, undergoing a QB switch and riddled by injury. More than half of Miami’s starters sat out the bowl game for win 7. Another win was vs. Indiana - the worst team in the BIG. Will we play a conference game as easy as that one next year? Maybe (Minny? Illinois?) or maybe not. I don’t think either of those teams are currently projected to be as bad as Indiana was last season. We beat Michigan State last season but this time we get them on the road.
Once again - the difference is we don’t run into a meat grinder with 3 teams we have no shot of beating even on our best day. That doesn’t translate into a net blended projection of more wins though. Let’s say our chance of beating any of OSU/PSU/Michigan was 3%. Maybe our chance of winning one of the new 3 this year is 20%. That would mean there’s an 80% chance we net the same 0-3 outcome even though we have a materially better chance of pulling an upset. Do you get it now?
No, I think you are just trying to lower expectations. With what we have coming back and a better QB, I expect 8 wins as the O/U. I don’t get why you are trying to excuse our win against NW last year. I didn’t even mentioned the WR room. We didn’t have our top WRs in the NW game. It’s a matter of opinion and expectation. I’m expecting big things. 6.5 means you are 50/50 to be bowl eligible
Does it not depend on who we draw and which of their players opt out? How can you straight up compare this year to last year without even knowing the opponent?
Per the betting site's FAQ's, bowl games do not count towards win totals.
At 6-6, you are not playing anyone good. If we have a lot of op outs and end at 6-6, it would be even more disappointing. Almost The U like disappointment last year.
No - I’m not lowering anything. I’m telling it like it is in that if you took each game as a stand alone and assigned a spread to them, we would not be favored to win more than 6 of them. Since we don’t know the bowl opponent, splitting the difference makes sense to get to 6.5. It’s a reasonable forecast not worthy of “Yikes”.
Actually - we’d probably only be favored in 4 games right now (Howard, Illinois, Minny, Akron). @ Nebraska and @ Michigan State we’d probably be slight underdogs with the home games vs UCLA and Wisconsin and @ V-Tech our next best chances. 2-3 outcome is a very reasonable forecast for 5 games where we are underdogs.
Neb and MSU were both under 500 teams. UCLA finished with 1 more win and we get them at home. What was your expectations last year?
ETA Va Tech was 7-6 in the ACC. Unless everyone got a lot better and we got worst, I just don’t get it.
Nebraska would’ve beaten us last year in my opinion. I was glad we didn’t play them. They will 100% be favored to beat us at their place. They had to have been the most unlucky team in the country. Lost in OT at Wisconsin. Lost by 3 to Maryland, Iowa, @ Minny, and @ Michigan State.
Michigan State was dealing with scandal drama all season. We won in miracle come back fashion and this time we go to their place. We won’t be favored to win that game either regardless of what their record was last year. It’s a new season.
You don’t know what your talking about with VTech. They were 5-3 in the ACC and 2 of those losses were on the road @ 5th and 13th ranked teams. They were missing important players in the early losses to Purdue, RU and Marshall. Not the same team by the end of the year. Not even close.
Just about everyone is returning from what was last season a quality defense. Virtually everyone is returning from a vastly improved offensive line. Our all-Big Ten running back and his back-ups are returning. Rutgers appears to have significantly improved the talent level at wr. And we're gonna go with a qb that the coaching staff thinks is better than the guy who led RU to a bowl win over Miami and a winning record last season.
Oh...and Ohio State, Michigan, and Pedd State are not on this season's schedule.
We have every right to expect an improvement over last year's record. The upcoming season should be our best shot at relevance nationally. It should be at least eight wins...barring significant injuries of course.
Oh...and Ohio State, Michigan, and Pedd State are not on this season's schedule.
We have every right to expect an improvement over last year's record. The upcoming season should be our best shot at relevance nationally. It should be at least eight wins...barring significant injuries of course.
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