Love the double talk. If you were not over the moon with 7 wins last year, you should be expecting 8-10 wins this year.
Football What is the Rutgers Football over/under for wins in 2024?
- Thread starter Richie O
- Start date
Responding to the comment about overachieving…I’m talking pre-season last year. You won’t find many people expecting 5 or more wins.
You realize that to qualify for a bowl game requires us to win multiple games that on paper project to be a lot more difficult than any of the opponents that we beat were at the time we faced them.
We only won one road game last season - against Indiana, the worst team in the conference. We barely beat Michigan State at home, you think it’s automatic at their place? Nebraska is better than both those teams and is a really tough place to play. Every other road game is very tough. You keep saying we already beat VTech - it should be a lock that we do it again. That’s nonsense. VTech is the number 21 team in the preseason rankings and the game is at their place. It’s not just “a little more difficult”. That would be a pretty big upset for us to win that one, unless, like last year, they suffer a bunch of unexpected injuries and we end up facing a depleted roster that doesn’t resemble the strength of their current ranking.
There are only 4 games on the schedule that aren’t tougher than our best wins last year. Howard, Akron, Illinois and Minny. The other games would be better quality wins than any of our wins from last year. Miami was missing half their roster - it’s great that we won a bowl game, but it’s not realistic to act like we beat the version of them from the regular season. We didn’t.
I know. You told me how we were the luckiest team in the world last year and we won’t have that luck this year. From my perspective, it’s a massive fail if we don’t win at least 7 games this year. No excuses.
I did not say we won because of luck. I said that several of the teams we faced were not at full strength or were dealing with scandals when we played them. That’s not my opinion, it’s a fact which was reflected in the Vegas odds at the time. We were favored in every one of those 7 games that we won. If odds were set today, we would only be favored in 4 games with a possible 5th game at even money next season.
Is it fact or opinion that if the odds were set today , we would only be favored in 4 games?
Yep, I was expecting 5 and hoping for 6 wins last year and a bowl and we got it, which was nice. So, this year with a marginally easier schedule and a team that I hope is improved a bit, I think 6-7 regular season wins is realistic, although I think the ceiling might be a bit higher if we get good QB play, so 8 isn't out of the question. Sure, beyond 8 is "possible" but not particularly realistic. 5 is also possible if things don't go well.
there is actually a rational middle ground. - those expecting 8-10 wins vs those that say slow your horses.
The good thing is- no one is predicting 2-4 wins like we see most years. Most are Bowl bound.
On the other hand- we did not get through last year by the skin of our teeth and were a bad team that got lucky either.
we were finally a good team. But going from very bad to good to 8-10 wins, is an incredible leap. And next year, let's say GS does another COY performance and we win 8-9, some of you all will be pissing that he could have won even more.
I didn't expect 7 wins last year and pleasantly happy with GS 2.0 but would be only setting myself up for A MASSIVE DISAPPOINTMENT IF i GO INTO THE YEAR EXPECTING 8 WINS OR BETTER
Look - it IS a fact that mutliple outlets currently rank us behind all but 2 BIG opponents on our schedule for next season and well behind VTech (who cracked the top 25 in most preseason polls).
Rutgers Football: Scarlet Knights make jump in Spring rankings
Where did ESPN rank Rutgers following the spring season?
www.onthebanks.com
So yeah, typically opening week Vegas odds are well correlated with pre-season media projections. We’re not going to be favored vs USC, UCLA, Washington or Wisconsin - they are way ahead of us. Nebraska, Maryland, and VTech are ranked ahead of us and road games. So we wouldn’t be favored in these games either if we played them on opening day. Perhaps Minny would be even money. We play them at home but they are ranked slightly ahead of us.
What is the general feeling of Terps fans for the 2024 season with Taulia gone? You guys have a pretty pillow soft schedule too.
Here's a quick stab:
Wins: UConn, MSU, Virginia, Villanova, Indiana, MInn
Tossups: NW, USC, Rutgers
Losses: Oregon, Iowa, Penn State
7 or 8 wins?
So, it’s opinion.Look - it IS a fact that mutliple outlets currently rank us behind all but 2 BIG opponents on our schedule for next season and well behind VTech (who cracked the top 25 in most preseason polls).
Rutgers Football: Scarlet Knights make jump in Spring rankings
Where did ESPN rank Rutgers following the spring season?
So yeah, typically opening week Vegas odds are well correlated with pre-season media projections. We’re not going to be favored vs USC, UCLA, Washington or Wisconsin - they are way ahead of us. Nebraska, Maryland, and VTech are ranked ahead of us and road games. So we wouldn’t be favored in these games either if we played them on opening day. Perhaps Minny would be even money. We play them at home but they are ranked slightly ahead of us.
Not really. It’s a factual statement that the first Vegas line of the season almost always correlates to current pre-season rankings (of course there are exceptions like when a star QB gets hurt the day before a game and has to miss it or some other major external factor.) But no, it is not my opinion but rather a historically supported truth that typically opening day lines are consistent with analyst projections. An opinion would be me making a prediction for the lines based on how good I think Rutgers and our opponents would be. I offered no opinion other than pointing to what media analysts who follow sports for a living have concluded. No, they aren’t always right, but clearly their data is going to be more persuasive on average to neutral betters than yours or mine simply because it’s more visible.
Based on preseason last year, RU would’ve been dogs in a lot more games. Just can’t have it both ways. Btw, it’s not a fact. Just your opinion 😀
Yeah, I'm loving the schedules this year for Rutgers and Maryland. Kinda' tired of trying to explain to my old ACC pals that a 6-6 record with a B1G East schedule > a 6-6 record with an ACC schedule.
I'm not very good at predictions. I will take a look and answer, though...
ETA: That seems about right. I think I would move MSU into the "Tossups" row, even though that may not make any sense.
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Are we allowed to mention that Tulanes star QB (now in Green Bay) sat out that game and their second string QB went out with a leg injury early?
Me too, and I definitely think we have a chance to do it with a strong season.
All I’m saying is that 3 of the non-bowl wins we would need to obtain en route to this outcome would, on average, be significantly higher quality wins than any of the 6 wins we collected last year to qualify for a bowl. At least based on current forecasts…. Now, teams do not live up to pre-season expectations all the time for a variety of reasons. Any number of the teams on our current schedule could turn out to be far worse or better than currently forecasted. But pre-season predictions are the best available information before the season to compare to actual opponents from the prior season.
The Illinois and Minny (home games) are comparable difficulty to VTech and Michigan State last year. Consider those and the pairs of midmajor games washes. 4 similar difficulty wins on the table both year. Last year’s team went 4-0. Can we be perfect again?
The difference, in my opinion, are the 5th 6th and 7th wins that would be required. Indiana was our only road win last year. Michigan State has a lot more talent than that team had. It’s a harder road game for sure - we barely beat them at home. But even if you want to say those are similar difficulty - the 6th and 7th wins would indesputably need to be much higher quality. We’d need 2 of - @ Nebraska, @ VTech, @ Maryland, UCLA, Washington, @ USC or Wisconsin - and any of these would significantly higher quality wins than all of the wins we collected last year (unless these teams turn out worse than expected).
Yes - of course. But that doesn’t change the fact that any way you slice it - VTech got significantly better following that Marshall game when they got their defensive players back and Drones had a few games under his belt.
They went 6-3 from that point forward (5-3 if you like excluding Tulane) compared to 1-3 (and those injuries actually occurred verse Purdue so they were at full strength for their OD win). It wasn’t like their schedule just “got easier”. It didn’t. The “weak” ACC was not worse than OD, Purdue, and Marshall. This isn’t my opinion - it was proven on the field. Syracuse beat Purdue AT Purdue. WF (worst ACC team) beat OD AT OD. All 3 of the ACC teams they lost to were better than us. VTech got better. I’m having a hard time understanding how folks are challenging this point.
I just meant as long as we’re making excuses for the Rutgers wins we may as well point out when Virginia Tech had advantages.
It will be a tough game in Blacksburg. But we have done fairly well lately when stepping down and playing ACC teams.
@BC.
@syracuse
VT
Miami
There was the Gator Bowl loss as a late sub to a very good Wake team.
For sure. In general, I think nowadays bowl game wins outside of the top tier bowls need to be taken with a grain of salt as unfortunately so many top players choose to sit out of them. I didn’t realize Tulane was missing players when I referenced them.
The point still stands that VTech’s results in the first 4 games of the season were poor relative to the rest of their season. 1-3 against OD, Marshall, Purdue and RU was a very bad start. Obviously - having to play with a depleted roster early on was at least part of the reason for this since things changed for them when they got healthy against equal if not better competition.
All this said - I do think the VTech game is a winnable game - I’m not suggesting otherwise. Rather, Im challenging the perspective that it’s some colossal let down if we lose that game. We’re not actually supposed to win it on paper. Same for the game @ Nebraska and a few other folks seem to think should be automatic wins for us.
For the first time in the history of the internet, two people with opposing initial viewpoints have come to an agreement!
Well, if one was stupid enough to go by USA Today's recent preseason rankings, Rutgers is ranked #47 and plays five teams ranked higher. Three on the road.....#17 USC, #20 Virginia Tech, and #25 Nebraska.... plus home games against #31 Wisconsin and #37 Washington.
IMO every game is winnable...and when was the last time we could say that ?
2024 has the potential to be a very memorable season.
IMO every game is winnable...and when was the last time we could say that ?
2024 has the potential to be a very memorable season.
Yep. Until now, we started every season with three autolosses to OSU/UM/PSU, especially after 2015 - rarely were any of those games competitive. But this year, while we'll be underdogs to the 3 replacements for the B1G-E-3 (UW/USC/UCLA), we should be competitive with all three and will have some chance of beating each of them (although I'd be happy with one win from those three). So, we might not have a much better record than last year, the potential for a much better record is significantly greater, if things break our way. I like being in that situation much more than being in the B1G-East.
And we were missing our 2 best Defensive players by far in the Bowl game last year vs. Miami
It goes both ways. Wasn’t that much of a disparity.
Yes - look, I’m sure that was a factor for us in the lopsided loss to Maryland too.
However - the fact that we were still favored for Miami after the Maryland game says something. We may not have been at full strength, but Miami was missing more than half of their starting team on both sides of the ball and the Vegas line reflected as much. They had talented recruits in the pipeline but their team for the bowl game did not resemble their team from the regular season at all.
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