Football What will Ciarrocca’s offense look like?
- Thread starter ChrisNalwasky
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The point isn’t about using our players and and being successful, although I wouldn’t rule it out.
The point is finding guys that do fit but those guys aren’t the highly rated ones with a bunch of stars or the ones with every measurable but are ones that others overlook. See what was Gardner Minshew stats before he went into Leach’s system. You think he’d have been as productive or made it to the NFL without Leach, No way. A lot of these offensive players wouldn’t be nearly as productive without his system. If they went didn’t go to him, no way they get all those accolades and achievements somewhere else.
I agree with you a system can help highlight a player. But my point is that player has to have talent. The idea of doing more or less is a fantasy. You can overcome deficiencies at positions with superior talent in others positions.
I don’t think it’s a fallacy. The less doesn’t mean you can take some guy off the street and make him a star. The less means you take guys that aren’t as highly rated or sought after or have all the star power but can make them productive. That’s “the less” not that any Tom Dick and Harry is going to be a star in his system.
So then what's the program path forward?
If, as you allege, better coaching won't help.
Close the program down?
Get better players? How? What's the recruiting pitch?
Just ask nicely and the better recruits will come?
Unless you're hiring an actual elite recruiter/name (see Deion at Colorado - not HC Schiano) then your aren't recruiting your way to improvement.
It has to be coaching first the current level of talent the program can get.
It has to be coaching first the current level of talent the program can get.
It's not really a fantasy. You are arguing for the sake of arguing and being contrarian.
Follow the trajectory of Leach's teams and QBs.
Sonny Cumbie's only scholarship offers were Tarleton State University, and West Texas A&M University. He walked on at Texas Tech. In his final year of football, as a starter in 2004 he went 421/642 (65.6$) for 4,742 yards 32 TD and 18 INTs. Tech was ranked #23 and beat #4 Cal in a bowl led by Aaron Rodgers.
At WSU, his first QB recruit was Connor Halliday, not a single other P5 offer:
In 2013, he set or tied numerous Washington State, Pac-12 and NCAA records during the season.
Leach's next QB? Luke Falk. A 2 star with offers from Cornell and Idaho.
in 2015 and 2016, Falk threw for close to (and over one season) 4500 yards, with TD/INT ratios of 38/11 and 38/8.
Then he recruited Gardner Minshew from ECU. Out of HS, his offers were from Troy, Akron and UAB:
2018: 468/662 70.7%, 4,779 yards 38 TD/9 INT
Mike Leach's final QB, Will Rogers, only P5 offers were Washington State and Miss. State:
Rogers' last 2 years:
2021: 505/683 (73.9%) 4,739 yards 36/9 TD/INT
2022: 386/566 (68.2%) 3,713 yards 34/6 TD/INT
Rogers broke the Southeastern Conference career completions record after playing 28 games for Mississippi State on October 8, 2022
The more with less is a team with a WR like Underwood and Brown going against Britt.
Not Shuler vs Britt.
There still has to be some ability but a coach and his play calling and coaching can and should make a huge difference.
Not Shuler vs Britt.
There still has to be some ability but a coach and his play calling and coaching can and should make a huge difference.
Right, this does need to be more specific: Run to the right of the center, run to the left of the center, pass overthrown but would have been short of the sticks anyway, punt but not as long as Korsak.
Great explanation but waaaayyyyyy too many Ps in that game plan. That ain't from any Rutgers play by play summary.
The problem is Rutgers offense is typically almost ALWAYS predictable. @koleszar hit the nail on the head. "Run, run, pass" and then punt is like a secret chant they must do in the offensive coordinator meetings so everyone knows what to do. And they execute what they chant perfectly, but it is rarely effective. If I know it and usually I call it out even before the first offensive snap, then the other team surely knows it too. It leads to very little success.
Never said coaching won’t help. In the end we agreed that it both coaching and talent. We all see what GS has done with the D. Need the same on O.
Just because they were under recruited doesn’t mean they don’t have talent. He clearly has an eye for talent that can run his system. To me, it’s like the McCourty twins. GS saw enough to offer and develop. But those guys had God given ability also.
sometimes the system is what makes the players because their talent fits it best and not so well in other systems.
Greg is a defense oriented HC and can find players that fit the D he wants that might not shine in another HC's D
Leach has done that with the O players he brought in
His D wasn't that good most of the years he was at TT ,WSU & Miss St
MIKE LEACH TEXAS TECH DEFENSE
YEAR | POINTS ALLOWED PER GAME AVG | PPG NAT'L RANK | DEFENSIVE YARDS PER GAME | PASSING YARDS PER GAME | RUSHING YARDS PER GAME | W-L RECORD |
2000 | 21.4 | 39th | 320.7 | 156.6 | 164.1 | 7-6 |
2001 | 23.4 | 43rd | 361.5 | 172.2 | 189.3 | 7-5 |
2002 | 31.4 | 89th | 403.5 | 163.9 | 239.6 | 9-5 |
2003 | 34.0 | 101st | 453.4 | 197.1 | 256.3 | 8-5 |
2004 | 26.2 | 68th | 357.5 | 176.2 | 181.3 | 8-4 |
2005 | 18.8 | 19th | 335.8 | 155.4 | 180.4 | 9-3 |
2006 | 25.1 | 77th | 333.5 | 151.1 | 182.4 | 8-5 |
2007 | 25.9 | 50th | 365.4 | 177.0 | 188.4 | 9-4 |
2008 | 27.8 | 74th | 382.6 | 140.4 | 242.2 | 11-2 |
2009 | 22.6 | 41st | 351.0 | 135.1 | 215.9 | 9-4 |
MIKE LEACH WASHINGTON STATE DEFENSE
YEAR | POINTS ALLOWED PER GAME AVG | PPG NAT'L RANK | DEFENSIVE YARDS PER GAME | PASSING YARDS PER GAME | RUSHING YARDS PER GAME | W-L RECORD |
2012 | 33.7 | 101st | 425.9 | 262.7 | 163.2 | 3-9 |
2013 | 32.5 | 97th | 458.2 | 270.8 | 187.4 | 6-7 |
2014 | 38.6 | 117th | 442.2 | 296.5 | 145.7 | 3-9 |
2015 | 27.7 | 74th | 416.8 | 223.5 | 193.3 | 9-4 |
2016 | 26.4 | 50th | 405.9 | 271.7 | 134.2 | 8-5 |
2017 | 25.8 | 58th | 323.3 | 170.9 | 152.4 | 9-4 |
2018 | 23.3 | 42nd | 358.4 | 216.9 | 141.5 | 11-2 |
2019 | 31.4 | 93rd | 452.5 | 267.0 | 185.5 | 6-7 |
MIKE LEACH MISSISSIPPI STATE DEFENSE
YEAR | POINTS ALLOWED PER GAME AVG | PPG NAT'L RANK | DEFENSIVE YARDS PER GAME | PASSING YARDS PER GAME | RUSHING YARDS PER GAME | W-L RECORD |
2020 | 28.1 | 58th | 389.7 | 263.3 | 126.4 | 4-7 |
2021 | 25.2 | 56th | 330.9 | 230.1 | 100.8 | 7-5 |
How do people judge talent? Star ratings, rankings, offers, measurables etc…
You can say his under recruited players have some talent okay but then I can say his opposition often had more talent by the metrics most use to judge talent and he often enough challenged or beat those teams with more talent. Hence the more with less. There are coaches who do less with more as we’ve seen with Fisher as of late.
Good point. QB is a unique and super valuable. That’s a differentiator. I bet you look at his WRs and they are more inline with P5 guys. Speed, size and hands can’t be coached.
I'm not going to do the same exhaustive analysis that I did for QBs.
Let's look at Leach's best years at Washington State the top receivers:
2017 WSU:
Tavares Martin- 3 star
Isaiah Johnson 3 star
Renard Bell 3 -star
Kyle Sweet 3-Star
2018 WSU.
WR: Dezmon Patton. Nothing special as a recruit (3 star), and only a 2 year starter. He did not have raw talent. He was developed and fit into Leach's system:
Tay Martin. 2 star WSU his only P5 offer.
Easop Winston Jr. 3 Star, WSU his only P5 Offer. He started as a JUCO
Nothing stands out on these teams.
In his later years at Texas Tech when the word got out that Leach had built a juggernaut, he had Michael Crabtree, and I believe another 4 star. But remember, he built WSU from scratch when he got there.
Even 2022 Miss State's WRs:
Rara Thomas -3 stars, only 2 P5 offers:
Rufus Harvey- Miss State only P5 offer
Lideatrick Griffin 3 star 3 P5 offers:
Caleb Ducking 3 star Miss. State only P5 offer
What is interesting in many of his successful teams is that there is not one standout receiver (some years there are), but the ball gets spread around to 3-5 receivers, each having about 500-700 yards per year in receptions.
????????????????
Thank you for this.
And yes my Caps are on for the others:
AND THERES PLENTY OF 3 STAR TALENT IN NEW JERSEY WHO DONT PLAY FOR A BERGEN COUNTY ST SOMEBODY WHO RUTGERS CAN GET AND RUN THE LEACH/ BRILES OFFENSE WITH!!! But let’s keep going after those ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️s who will never be interested in playing for Rutgers.
Yes, Leach’s players had talent. You don’t get to be Texas Tech or Washington State (or Rutgers) level players without having talent.
What you are ignoring is that he took these players and schemed them into success against players on the schedule who had a lot more natural talent. His players didn’t have to match up against the 4/5 stars on their terms, he made those better players they were facing off balance with his system.
That makes a lot more sense than Rutgers current offensive strategy, which appears to be continually hoping that our players can go against more athletic and talented opponents and win head to head battles that are fought on the opponents’ terms, like “winning in the trenches”. Our opponents never appear to be off balance.
Plus they both had great NFL careers because they didn’t just run a system. I like seeing our guys in the NFL.
I've been a proponent of that for a very long time.
Nonetheless, anything can work and anything can fail. For hires I'm not enthused about I try to stay hopeful and keep my feet above the ground. For hires I'm enthused about I try to keep my feet on the ground. I stay hopeful about all of them.
I think KC is an okay hire. If it works out, great. If it doesn't, we try again, that's all.
Why don't you do that and correlate that with successful seasons? I just picked strong seasons and the top WRs from those seasons. Some of those players listed made the NFL.
That is not the point. Just as @rutgersguy1 pointed out, Schiano developed low rated players into defensive NFL talent. Leach did the same with QBs and WRs. He had no 4 or 5 star QBs or WRs that excelled in my examples.
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I'm with you on this, but I also agree with @tico brown . Yeah, I am both siding again. However, I believe with a lack of 4 and 5 star talent at QB and WR, our style of offense will be more of an uphill battle.
You mentioned Enos at Maryland in another thread. They had a solid season running a pro style offense. But I believe they had some studs at WR in addition to a stud QB.
Now that I am back on a computer, let's take a look at Maryland:
2022:
Taulia QB 4 star
Jeshaun Jones WR- 3 stars, not many P5 offers
Corey Dyches TE - 3 strs, but 6 P5 offers
Rakim Jarrett WR- 5 stars- this guy is a stud and a playmaker
Rakim Jarrett WR 4 star transfer from Florida
CJ Dippre TE 3 stars, but 7 P5 offers
CJ Dippre WR 3 stars but 9 P5 offers
Interesting that their RB Roman Hemby was rated at a 2 star, but he did have nine P5 offers, so something must have been way off with his ratings during covid?
This is why in my analyses of Leach's players and the players above, I don't just look at stars, but offers too. Sometimes the rating services do a poor evaluation, miss players, or sometimes the players did not go to any or enough camps, but a number of P5 offers can be another indicator of raw talent. IMO, Maryland has raw talent in skill positions. Would be great to hear from @jorand and @dconifer on how they feel about their talent.
And this may support my point- in another thread, @jorand was not too impressed with Maryland's OC Dan Enos, who just left for another job. He ran a pro style offense. Would/could Maryland do more with their talent if they ran an air raid/Leach style offense?
I didn’t follow any of those teams he coached but a quick google search says in 2008, his QB was Graham Harrell and WR Michael Crabtree. Not a bad combo. Again, not saying his coaching didn’t help. I actually said it did help and I gave him a ton of credit for finding the talent that fits the system instead of recruiting services. I’m only arguing that it still takes talent to be successful.
Nice article here on star ratings and offense vs defense.
Some excerpts:
“My theory: You can disguise a good player on offense and also uplift and over-evaluate a player with an unbelievable supporting cast,” said former NFL scout Daniel Jeremiah, a draft analyst with NFL Network. “With defensive guys, it’s more, ‘Did you beat the guy in front of you?’ And when it comes to D-linemen, there’s only so many of those guys. It’s like with cornerbacks: There are physical requirements for those positions. You can play with a 4.6 wide receiver. You can’t play with a 4.6 cornerback.”
“If a defensive player does their assignment and wins their box or one-on-one, they can have immediate impact and success,” he said. “On the other hand, offensive players are heavily dependent on scheme — and each other.
I think you can identify the talent and the traits that make them elite. The challenge is projecting the fit based on offensive schemes
The theories about the evaluation process are all over the map — literally.
“Most of that (online recruiting) industry lies in the Southeast, where the big money and interest is. That’s where most of the best defensive talent exists too, with D-linemen and DBs. Hence the Rivals and 247 guys can see and evaluate them more in the Southeast,” said FSU director of high school relations Ryan Bartow, who previously spent a dozen years covering recruiting for 247Sports and Rivals. “The best spots for QBs (California and Texas) and for O-line (the Midwest and Northeast) are seen by less in that space and industry.”
Some excerpts:
“My theory: You can disguise a good player on offense and also uplift and over-evaluate a player with an unbelievable supporting cast,” said former NFL scout Daniel Jeremiah, a draft analyst with NFL Network. “With defensive guys, it’s more, ‘Did you beat the guy in front of you?’ And when it comes to D-linemen, there’s only so many of those guys. It’s like with cornerbacks: There are physical requirements for those positions. You can play with a 4.6 wide receiver. You can’t play with a 4.6 cornerback.”
“If a defensive player does their assignment and wins their box or one-on-one, they can have immediate impact and success,” he said. “On the other hand, offensive players are heavily dependent on scheme — and each other.
I think you can identify the talent and the traits that make them elite. The challenge is projecting the fit based on offensive schemes
The theories about the evaluation process are all over the map — literally.
“Most of that (online recruiting) industry lies in the Southeast, where the big money and interest is. That’s where most of the best defensive talent exists too, with D-linemen and DBs. Hence the Rivals and 247 guys can see and evaluate them more in the Southeast,” said FSU director of high school relations Ryan Bartow, who previously spent a dozen years covering recruiting for 247Sports and Rivals. “The best spots for QBs (California and Texas) and for O-line (the Midwest and Northeast) are seen by less in that space and industry.”
He coached a lot of lightly recruited players that flourished in his system.
Mostly makes sense. Except I suspect, probably, that defensive scheme combined with player intelligence/recognition skills can make up for a bit of missing athleticism. Not entirely, and it won't help when the opponent has those attributes plus the athleticism, but otherwise, it can help a little bit.
Yes, I mentioned Crabtree. But in many of his very successful seasons, he did not have that talent. No offense, but I feel like this is devolving into an argument like we see on that other long thread about a certain type of vehicle, where each side has firmly held convictions, but one side keeps raising doubts when shown facts.
But it seems that we have some agreement. I never said his players have no talent. There has to be a base level of talent. However, in many years, he fielded high scoring offenses that put up a lot of points and more than teams that had "better" talent. This is similar to what Schiano 1.0 did with his swarming defenses, particularly the 2006 year.
The reality is that even Ciarrocca cannot predict what the O is going to wind up looking like yet. He hasn't even had one practice with the players. All he can do now is talk about experience and plans and what he wants to see.
But talk is cheap. Until the players actually execute it, there's no way of knowing for sure how it'll work out or what it'll wind up looking like.
Put it this way - if Leach was out coach this past season we win 8 or 9 games with this RU team.
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