When will we make the NCAA Tournament? A Case Study (SHU)

[Degaz-RU]

I think we all (or most) agree that Pike gives us a great chance of finally making the NCAA tournament at some point soon. Most agree that it won't be this year, but that next year we could make some NIT or NCAA noise, and then who knows thereafter?

For some perspective, I think it's interesting to look at one of our direct peers (and rivals to boot), Seton Hall. SHU hired Kevin Willard in 2010, the same year we hired Mike Rice. Willard has been there ever since, whereas we burned through Rice and then Eddie Jordan, and now are in Year 3 of Pike. SHU's record since 2010:

2010-11 -- 13-18 (7-11), 12th in old BE
2011-12 -- 21-13 (8-10), 10th in old BE, made NIT
2012-13 -- 15-18 (3-15), tied for 13th in old BE
2013-14 -- 17-17 (6-12), tied for 8th in reconfigured BE
2014-15 -- 16-15 (6-12), tied for 7th in reconfigured BE
2015-16 -- 25-9 (12-6), 3rd in BE, made NCAA
2016-17 -- 21-12 (10-8), 5th in BE, made NCAA
2017-18 -- 22-12 (10-8), 3rd in BE, made NCAA

So Willard didn't make the NCAA until Year 6, and he did so on the back of 5-star guard Whitehead and the other members of that recruiting class (Carrington, Delgado, Rodriguez, etc.). And other than the Year 2 record of 21-13, he basically hovered just below or just above .500 for his overall record, and always well below .500 in the BE games, until the breakout Year 6.

Of course this is just anecdotal, but I think it's a good paradigm for how things might go at Rutgers. I know we all hope we can get there in Year 4 or 5, but the odds are against that happening in the rough and tumble Big Ten.

 

[RU-ROCS]

Fair point. It is probably totally unreasonable to think that Pike will take us there next year, but as a long-time RU fan, hope springs eternal!

 

[SJScarlet]

It’s extremely realistic next year.

 

[RUsojo]

I think we all (or most) agree that Pike gives us a great chance of finally making the NCAA tournament at some point soon. Most agree that it won't be this year, but that next year we could make some NIT or NCAA noise, and then who knows thereafter?

For some perspective, I think it's interesting to look at one of our direct peers (and rivals to boot), Seton Hall. SHU hired Kevin Willard in 2010, the same year we hired Mike Rice. Willard has been there ever since, whereas we burned through Rice and then Eddie Jordan, and now are in Year 3 of Pike. SHU's record since 2010:

2010-11 -- 13-18 (7-11), 12th in old BE
2011-12 -- 21-13 (8-10), 10th in old BE, made NIT
2012-13 -- 15-18 (3-15), tied for 13th in old BE
2013-14 -- 17-17 (6-12), tied for 8th in reconfigured BE
2014-15 -- 16-15 (6-12), tied for 7th in reconfigured BE
2015-16 -- 25-9 (12-6), 3rd in BE, made NCAA
2016-17 -- 21-12 (10-8), 5th in BE, made NCAA
2017-18 -- 22-12 (10-8), 3rd in BE, made NCAA

So Willard didn't make the NCAA until Year 6, and he did so on the back of 5-star guard Whitehead and the other members of that recruiting class (Carrington, Delgado, Rodriguez, etc.). And other than the Year 2 record of 21-13, he basically hovered just below or just above .500 for his overall record, and always well below .500 in the BE games, until the breakout Year 6.

Of course this is just anecdotal, but I think it's a good paradigm for how things might go at Rutgers. I know we all hope we can get there in Year 4 or 5, but the odds are against that happening in the rough and tumble Big Ten.

Good analysis. This is why I have said expectations should be year 6 or 7 provided recruiting gets better. Usually jump happens two years after a second recruiting class that ranks in the middle of your conference or better. See PSU. Very similar story to the one here.

 

[soundcrib]

It’s extremely realistic next year.

We can win 25 games next year?

 

[SJScarlet]

We can win 25 games next year?

25 games to get into the NCAA tournament from the B1G? 23 wins guarantees it basically every year, and 22 or even 21 wins can get you in a lot of years if you have a decent schedule and if you get some help from other bubble teams.

 

[soundcrib]

25 games to get into the NCAA tournament from the B1G? 23 wins guarantees it basically every year, and 22 or even 21 wins can get you in a lot of years if you have a decent schedule and if you get some help from other bubble teams.

What about the B1G last year?

But ok. I’ll play. We can win 23 games next year?

 

[SJScarlet]

What about the B1G last year?

But ok. I’ll play. We can win 23 games next year?

What about the B1G last year haha? Nebraska won 22 games and missed the tournament, that was the nearest miss and they were probably last out. Penn State only had 19 regular season wins, 21 after the B1G tournament.

And yes, they can definitely win 23. More likely though is maybe 21 regular season wins, and nab a bid with a couple of conference tournament wins. Will need to stay healthy, especially a few key guys like Myles Johnson who will start at center. Would be nice to add a talented big with the last scholarship.

 

[RUsojo]

What about the B1G last year haha? Nebraska won 22 games and missed the tournament, that was the nearest miss and they were probably last out. Penn State only had 19 regular season wins, 21 after the B1G tournament.

And yes, they can definitely win 23. More likely though is maybe 21 regular season wins, and nab a bid with a couple of conference tournament wins. Will need to stay healthy, especially a few key guys like Myles Johnson who will start at center. Would be nice to add a talented big with the last scholarship.

23 or 21 wins......really? What do you guys even do evaluate/prepare an upcoming season of college basketball?

 

[mikefla]

I put my trust in coach Pike....NIT next year....
:boxing:[jumpingsmile]:boxing:after that....who knows?:boxing:[jumpingsmile]:boxing:

 

[goru7]

We can win 25 games next year?

Last year for the Big Ten getting only 4 teams in was an aberration. Usually 6-7-8 teams will make it. If we can get to 500 in conference next year or the year after then the NCAA will be here sooner than later .

 

[G- RUnit]

Both PSU and Nebraska were hosed.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Let's win more than 12 games this year first before talking postseason next year. I think you guys are absolutely crazy.

2 to 3 of the newcomers would have to be really good....much better than anything we currently have returning.

I see us having a bunch of much needed "win with" players. We eventually need "win because" of players.

 

[goru7]

Let's win more than 12 games this year first before talking postseason next year. I think you guys are absolutely crazy.

2 to 3 of the newcomers would have to be really good....much better than anything we currently have returning.

I see us having a bunch of much needed "win with" players. We eventually need "win because" of players.

I get what you are saying but hopefully you see things are a little different now. Coach has built up the classes and really likes his junior class( Issa, Eugene, little Shaq), really likes his sophomore class( Geo, Mamadou, Kiss and next year Jacob Young) , and really likes his Freshman class,( Mathis, Myles, Caleb, and Ron Harper, which he called a real Big 10 class at the meeting the other night. Yeah only one senior in Shaq and then only Mulcahy on board next year, but who will likely start from day one , so you can think we are “ absolutely crazy” or you can think we finally have the horses to compete and win . Plus with a coach like Pike and his great staff we have things we have never had before. So go ahead and temper your expectations but for the rest of us starved fans that hope we are ready to return to the teams of the late 70’s and earlier 80’s, we see a path.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

SHU is not a comparable....different league, different scheduling requirements and a league with less overall competition and depth.

There are Power 5 comps that make more sense...in most cases, there's a trend of programs declining that has more to do with a program improving.

 

[kcg88]

I get what you are saying but hopefully you see things are a little different now. Coach has built up the classes and really likes his junior class( Issa, Eugene, little Shaq), really likes his sophomore class( Geo, Mamadou, Kiss and next year Jacob Young) , and really likes his Freshman class,( Mathis, Myles, Caleb, and Ron Harper, which he called a real Big 10 class at the meeting the other night. Yeah only one senior in Shaq and then only Mulcahy on board next year, but who will likely start from day one , so you can think we are “ absolutely crazy” or you can think we finally have the horses to compete and win . Plus with a coach like Pike and his great staff we have things we have never had before. So go ahead and temper your expectations but for the rest of us starved fans that hope we are ready to return to the teams of the late 70’s and earlier 80’s, we see a path.

Just about every coach in America "really likes" his guys. The ones who say otherwise are either so entrenched in their jobs they know they're safe (Calipari comes to mind) or are probably going to be fired (like Eddie "It's not my job to coach rebounding" Jordan). Do I think Pikiell is being genuine when he says he likes his guys? Yeah, I do, but that doesn't turn them into all-conference players.

Saying we now have the horses to compete and win is crazy without having seen half the roster suit up for a B1G game. Playing in the MAAC, or at a JUCO, or being the #334 (McConnell) or #371 prospect (Johnson)... it's a BIG leap from there to the Big Ten.

It seems like we can say for sure that Pikiell brings a stability and lack of drama to the program that has not existed since Gary Waters. But Fred Hill got Coburn, Chandler, Rosario, and Miller. Mike Rice got Mack, Jack, Carter, Biruta, and Judge... I could absolutely see people making the argument back then that those coaches "had the horses to compete and win" and yet it never happened.

Is Pikiell going to be able to develop the talent better than those guys? I hope so, but while you've got Omoruyi and Thiam's development on one hand, guys like Freeman, Williams, Sanders, and Sa all just kind of stagnated (IMO). The first two being Pike's recruits while the others were inherited gives me hope but I don't see how you could make any broad statements.

I see the path and I hope we're on it but there's a lot more that needs to be shown before we're talking NCAAs.

 

[goru7]

Just about every coach in America "really likes" his guys. The ones who say otherwise are either so entrenched in their jobs they know they're safe (Calipari comes to mind) or are probably going to be fired (like Eddie "It's not my job to coach rebounding" Jordan). Do I think Pikiell is being genuine when he says he likes his guys? Yeah, I do, but that doesn't turn them into all-conference players.

Saying we now have the horses to compete and win is crazy without having seen half the roster suit up for a B1G game. Playing in the MAAC, or at a JUCO, or being the #334 (McConnell) or #371 prospect (Johnson)... it's a BIG leap from there to the Big Ten.

It seems like we can say for sure that Pikiell brings a stability and lack of drama to the program that has not existed since Gary Waters. But Fred Hill got Coburn, Chandler, Rosario, and Miller. Mike Rice got Mack, Jack, Carter, Biruta, and Judge... I could absolutely see people making the argument back then that those coaches "had the horses to compete and win" and yet it never happened.

Is Pikiell going to be able to develop the talent better than those guys? I hope so, but while you've got Omoruyi and Thiam's development on one hand, guys like Freeman, Williams, Sanders, and Sa all just kind of stagnated (IMO). The first two being Pike's recruits while the others were inherited gives me hope but I don't see how you could make any broad statements.

I see the path and I hope we're on it but there's a lot more that needs to be shown before we're talking NCAAs.

How were the entire coaching staff’s of those teams. Pathetic ! We have a former head coach with Uconn and Gw pedigree, and a Pitt guy who could be a head coach soon and a defensive wizard in Jay . You underestimate the importance of a good stable continuous staff. That will pay dividends this year and the next few.

Pike will clearly develop the talent better than any of those prior coaches. Hill made Rosario and Miller worse. Carter and Mack great early seasons they were freshman and then Carter transferred after a lousy sophomore year where he got hurt. Mack and Jack became better players because Eddie let them go one and one and let their talent take over. Very little development.

So far, Issa has gotten better defensively, and just started to put the ball on the floor and post up low near the end of last year . Eugene is a poster child for Pike and the staff’s development of a player. Geo was asked to be the point and the 2 guard and play defense which he did all of because of this staff. I think his development will explode this year. Shaquille and Mamadou will be good players to watch to see if they can develop since the verdict is still out. Also have to see how much better Kiss and Myles are after a year sitting out.

Lastly , if you do not think that this is the best roster we have had players 1-11 compared to past teams , then we will disagree. There is a reason Pike says he likes them and that is because they are better than what we have had as a complete roster in forever.

 

[RutgHoops]

In '16-'17: The B1G got 7 teams in the NCAA. Northwestern at 10-8/24-12 was the lowest seed
In '15-'16: The B1G got 7 teams in the NCAA. Michigan at 10-8/23-13 was the lowest seed
In '14-'15: The B1G got 7 teams in the NCAA. Indiana at 9-9/20-14 was the lowest seed
In '13-'14: The B1G got 6 teams in the NCAA. Iowa at 9-9/20-13 was the lowest seed

Last year appears to have been an aberration with only four bids. Last season the B1G was awful in the OOC. That has real implications when March rolls around. I don't see that happening again this season. I'd expect 7 bids this year for the league.

Willard is a good coach. Sometimes a school is best served looking past some early struggles if they believe they have the right guy. SHU got it right being patient with Willard.

 

[dkostus]

A lot of these conversations will hopefully change once this season is 5 + games in.

 

[soundcrib]

So I'll alter my position. If we can get to 16 wins this year, I agree that we can get to 20 next. So 2 down, 14 more to go.

 

[RUTrack94]

So I'll alter my position. If we can get to 16 wins this year, I agree that we can get to 20 next. So 2 down, 14 more to go.

CBI bound!

 

[RUBigFrank]

In '16-'17: The B1G got 7 teams in the NCAA. Northwestern at 10-8/24-12 was the lowest seed
In '15-'16: The B1G got 7 teams in the NCAA. Michigan at 10-8/23-13 was the lowest seed
In '14-'15: The B1G got 7 teams in the NCAA. Indiana at 9-9/20-14 was the lowest seed
In '13-'14: The B1G got 6 teams in the NCAA. Iowa at 9-9/20-13 was the lowest seed

Last year appears to have been an aberration with only four bids. Last season the B1G was awful in the OOC. That has real implications when March rolls around. I don't see that happening again this season. I'd expect 7 bids this year for the league.

Willard is a good coach. Sometimes a school is best served looking past some early struggles if they believe they have the right guy. SHU got it right being patient with Willard.

The OOC schedule for the league kept the bids low - of particular note was the performance of the league in the ACC challenge.

Given at least a split this year in the Challenge and Gavit games the conference can return to 6-7 bids.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

One of the preseason choices for bubble or NCAA'S for the B1G is Minnesota...they are on tonight (Monday) at 9ET hosting Pac 12 Utah....Vegas has Minnesota as 8 point favorites. Very good matchup.

Penn State is on BTN now vs Jacksonville State....

 

[BillyC80]

I would love to see us get to the tourney by next season, if for no other reason than to reward the hardest working MBB player ever to hit the banks, Eugene Omoruyi.

It would be great for him, for the team, for the coaches, for the school and for us long suffering fans if hard work and dedication were to carry the day. I believe it can be done with what Pike is building right now, with the current roster plus the addition of our two stellar point guards coming in next year.

 

[bac2therac]

most likely not ready next year, I think year 5 is very realistic...Geo is a senior.

 

[dkostus]

most likely not ready next year, I think year 5 is very realistic...Geo is a senior.

The way Issa and Eugene are playing, I'm not sure we're better the year after they leave. Next year they are going to be really really good unless the first two games are a smokescreen

 

[RRRRUUUU]

Pike is aware of the 6 years it took Willard but he decided he would just do it in year 3 instead of waiting.

 

[BillyC80]

most likely not ready next year, I think year 5 is very realistic...Geo is a senior.

True, but then no Eugene and no Thiam. Those will be big losses for us. Those guys as seniors with Geo and Kiss as juniors, Myles and Harper as sophomores with Mulcahy and Young coming in. Seems like a strong first eight, not to mention what Mathis might yet become.

 

[bac2therac]

its very tough to move up in this league. we are just catching up to the talent level of the bottom 7 in the league.

 

[soundcrib]

I wish we had a stud big to help put us over the top along with the stud guards coming in.

 

[winfield102]

Need a 4 that can shoot 3's. I thought it would take more time for Gene to develop that.

Next year with Young and mulcahy, I think we will be a bubble team. Stay healthy and they can do it. Give the offense a year to really get (we've never seen RU actually try to play offense as a team due to the group of players). They had the right idea a number of times against Dexrel but failed to execute. I just kept saying, "where's that been for the past 15 years?". We are finally doing all the things the opponents have done to us on a regular basis.

It used to be that the opponent had to bring their C game order for us to have a chance. Legitimately looking forward to watching the next 2 seasons unfold.

 

[SJScarlet]

The way Issa and Eugene are playing, I'm not sure we're better the year after they leave. Next year they are going to be really really good unless the first two games are a smokescreen

I’ve been saying this for a while. Next year’s team is going to be just as good if not better than the team the following year, even if we pick up studs in the 2020 class.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

The way I see it.......
Eugene and Baker are the bridge from bad to respectable. They show recruits that it is possible to win. They are gone when we finally have a team that that can dance. Geo Baker is basketballs Brian Leonard.

 

[winfield102]

I see Eugene as Draymond Green. RU doesn't get a lot of draymonds. NCAA has to happen next year. It could be a few years if not next year(or another 30).

While I'm sure this staff can develop kids, they have to be ALL IN. How many guys have we seen come thru that weren't willing to live bball? We seem to have those kids now.

 

[Skull83]

The way I see it.......
Eugene and Baker are the bridge from bad to respectable. They show recruits that it is possible to win. They are gone when we finally have a team that that can dance. Geo Baker is basketballs Brian Leonard.

Don't forget, Brian was still here when we made it to bowl games in 2005 and 2006!

 

[NickRU714]

This may be the Rutgers bias and signal all the SHU trolls - but screw them.

Didn't SHU only get those 5/4-star recruits in 2014-2015 because they hired all their HS coaches and handlers?
I think their board still wanted Willard gone after getting that class and finishing #7 in the NBE.

Wasn't until Year 2 with those recruits did they make the NCAA tourney.