Will Ohio State likely be in the national championship game?

[ashokan]

OSU tends to peak late in the season. Last year they would probably have won the NC last year if not for that one loss mid-season after playing too many cupcakes in a row. Then OSU came on big. I'm not overly impressed with Bama's schedule this year and don't consider them unbeatable. If anyone can do it OSU can.

 

[PSUPOWER]

My sister lives in Columbus, where she says there was a raucous celebration of OSU's victory over Michigan. She says the talk in Columbus is that Ohio State will play Alabama for the national championship. Is this really true? After all, Ohio State didn't even win its B1G division. I know I should know the answer to this, and apologize for asking.

Ohio State clearly finishes their regular season with a top 2 resume in the country. There isn't any doubt about that.
Ohio State has a very strong 11-1 resume.

Ohio State's only loss was at 10-2 Penn State by 3.
In that game, Ohio State had 19 1st downs to Penn State's 13.
Ohio State gained 413 total yards in the game in comparison to Penn State's 276. This loss for Ohio State was a loss, but, it wasn't a very bad loss.

Ohio State has also beaten #7 Oklahoma at Oklahoma by 21.
They have beaten a good 9-3 Tulsa team by 45.
They have beaten #22 Nebraska by 59.
And Ohio State has beaten #5 Wisconsin at Wisconsin by 7.

Finally, Ohio State beat the Michigan Wolverines, who beat Penn State by 39 points, by 3 to close out their regular season.

Ohio State played the strongest schedule in the country out of all of the 1-loss teams and they should be rewarded for that.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

They are likely in the playoffs but....
- They may fall to the 4 seed if the other 3 teams win their conference championship game.
- If PSU wins the B10 championship in a rout then they may get the nod over Ohio St

PSU isn't getting in OVER OSU nor are they "winning in a rout." I think Wiscy wins, to be honest, as it's not only a good matchup for them, but, they're a lot more accustomed to games of this nature as a program at this time. Could be wrong on the "w," however, no "route" either way IMHO.

 

[shields]

Wisconsin is really good on defense and if Barkley is not 100% do not think they win.

 

[BigEastPhil]

I am not a big fan of Barrett and thus OSU does not win a NC with Barrett at the helm.

 

[ashokan]

I am not a big fan of Barrett and thus OSU does not win a NC with Barrett at the helm.

I'm not crazy about him either, Great guy but sketchy long ball. Every other play looks like a crisis

 

[PSUPOWER]

Alabama - tOSU - Clemson - Washington unless Washington loses. Then I would put Michigan in.

Michigan finishes their regular season with the best 2-loss resume in the country. Michigan has a very strong 10-2 resume.

Michigan's only losses were at #2 Ohio State by 3 and at #25 Iowa by 1.

In their loss against Ohio State, Michigan played like the 3rd best team in the country. And their loss at Iowa occurred when Iowa made a Field Goal as time expired.

Like Ohio State, Michigan has also beaten three top 10 teams.
Michigan has beaten #9 Colorado by 17.
They have beaten 10-2 Penn State by 39.
And Michigan has beaten #5 Wisconsin by 7.

Michigan has beaten 3 times as many top 10 teams as any other team in the country except Ohio State and they should be rewarded for that.

 

[rutgersguy1]

PSU isn't getting in OVER OSU nor are they "winning in a rout." I think Wiscy wins, to be honest, as it's not only a good matchup for them, but, they're a lot more accustomed to games of this nature as a program at this time. Could be wrong on the "w," however, no "route" either way IMHO.

Their qb Hornibrook went out with a concussion in the Minnesota game. I watched a little of that game and it was tight until a bunch of interceptions by Minnesota. I think he's questionable for the B10 champ game as of now. Their defense is good and has the ability to keep them in a game even if their qb play doesn't live up to par. I think the B10 champ game can go either way.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Michigan finishes their regular season with the best 2-loss resume in the country. Michigan has a very strong 10-2 resume.

Michigan's only losses were at #2 Ohio State by 3 and at #25 Iowa by 1.

In their loss against Ohio State, Michigan played like the 3rd best team in the country. And their loss at Iowa occurred when Iowa made a Field Goal as time expired.

Like Ohio State, Michigan has also beaten three top 10 teams.
Michigan has beaten #9 Colorado by 17.
They have beaten 10-2 Penn State by 39.
And Michigan has beaten #5 Wisconsin by 7.

Michigan has beaten 3 times as many top 10 teams as any other team in the country except Ohio State and they should be rewarded for that.

I don't see how you could take 2 from the B10 and neither be the conference champ and on top of that not even make the champ game. OSU yes but I can't see any way Michigan gets in. Yes the top 10 wins are nice but you can't just disregard the losses and the lack of championship or championship appearance completely.

Pitt has 2 top 10 wins as well against Clemson/PSU but obviously they're not going in because of the rest of the resume. It's also likely Colorado could slip out of the top 10 if they lose and maybe the PSU/Wisconsin loser although both losers would still be ranked.

If the B10 gets 2 in it's going to be OSU and the winner of PSU/Wisconsin. I can't see Michigan getting in. They could get the Rose Bowl though.

 

[PSUPOWER]

I don't see how you could take 2 from the B10 and neither be the conference champ and on top of that not even make the champ game. OSU yes but I can't see any way Michigan gets in. Yes the top 10 wins are nice but you can't just disregard the losses and the lack of championship or championship appearance completely.

Pitt has 2 top 10 wins as well against Clemson/PSU but obviously they're not going in because of the rest of the resume. It's also likely Colorado could slip out of the top 10 if they lose and maybe the PSU/Wisconsin loser although both losers would still be ranked.

If the B10 gets 2 in it's going to be OSU and the winner of PSU/Wisconsin. I can't see Michigan getting in. They could get the Rose Bowl though.

I forgot about Pitt's two top 10 wins, because, I didn't look that far down the totem pole. Pitt is 8-4 this year. Thanks for correcting me.

Interestingly, the entire Coaches Poll top 10 only has 7 top 10 wins.

Ohio State has 3:
at Oklahoma by 21
at Wisconsin by 7
Michigan by 3

Michigan has 3:
Colorado by 17
Penn State by 39
Wisconsin by 7

Penn State has 1:
Ohio State by 3

I wasn't disregarding any losses though. Michigan played very well in their loss at Ohio State and barely lost at Iowa.

They also beat both teams that are in the B1G Championship game. Michigan beat Penn State by 39 points and Wisconsin by 7 points. How a team wins and/or loses also matters as well as who they beat and lose to.

I don't think Penn State or Wisconsin could have gone into Columbus and played Ohio State as well as Michigan did.

Penn State hasn't beaten any top 25 teams on the road all year and Wisconsin hasn't beaten any top 10 teams this year.

OOC games are a major portion of the resume of any potential playoff team.

When you focus on conference championships and conference championship appearances you are disregarding OOC games. All 12 or 13 regular season games are important.

 

[rutgersguy1]

I forgot about Pitt's two top 10 wins, because, I didn't look that far down the totem pole. Pitt is 8-4 this year. Thanks for correcting me.

Interestingly, the entire Coaches Poll top 10 only has 7 top 10 wins.

Ohio State has 3:
at Oklahoma by 21
at Wisconsin by 7
Michigan by 3

Michigan has 3:
Colorado by 17
Penn State by 39
Wisconsin by 7

Penn State has 1:
Ohio State by 3

I wasn't disregarding any losses though. Michigan played very well in their loss at Ohio State and barely lost at Iowa.

They also beat both teams that are in the B1G Championship game. Michigan beat Penn State by 39 points and Wisconsin by 7 points. How a team wins and/or loses also matters as well as who they beat and lose to.

I don't think Penn State or Wisconsin could have gone into Columbus and played Ohio State as well as Michigan did.

Penn State hasn't beaten any top 25 teams on the road all year and Wisconsin hasn't beaten any top 10 teams this year.

OOC games are a major portion of the resume of any potential playoff team.

When you focus on conference championships and conference championship appearances you are disregarding OOC games. All 12 or 13 regular season games are important.

I don't focus on only it, that's how I can see OSU getting in still but you can't disregard their importance. Michigan had the same opportunity to make it to the champ game and they didn't. Wisconsin played them close at Ann Arbor too the same way you mention Michigan playing OSU close on the road. They also lost in OT in Madison to OSU another close game. They have an LSU win and on the road at Iowa. One or both of them may squeak into the final rankings.

So they'll have PSU, Nebraska and maybe LSU/Iowa and no bad losses just 2 close ones to 2 top 10 teams one of them in OT and one on the road.

Really the more I look, I think Wisconsin looks better if a 2nd team makes it, even though I think most feel it's PSU because of the OSU win and the dilemma created there.

Put that aside though and I'll be shocked if just the politics of it isn't going to allow 2 teams in that didn't appear in their conference championship game from the same conference. It's tough to say that for 1 but OSU's resume is good enough to get over that bar. I think the bar might as well be on the moon for a 2nd to get in the same way and from the same conference no less.

There would be so many precedents made with that, I just can't see it. Two teams from the same conference, 1 team from the conference that didn't make the champ game and then a 2nd team from a conference that also didn't make the champ game. That's a bridge too far IMO.

 

[PSUPOWER]

I don't focus on only it, that's how I can see OSU getting in still but you can't disregard their importance. Michigan had the same opportunity to make it to the champ game and they didn't. Wisconsin played them close at Ann Arbor too the same way you mention Michigan playing OSU close on the road. They also lost in OT in Madison to OSU another close game. They have an LSU win and on the road at Iowa. One or both of them may squeak into the final rankings.

So they'll have PSU, Nebraska and maybe LSU/Iowa and no bad losses just 2 close ones to 2 top 10 teams one of them in OT and one on the road.

Really the more I look, I think Wisconsin looks better if a 2nd team makes it, even though I think most feel it's PSU because of the OSU win and the dilemma created there.

Put that aside though and I'll be shocked if just the politics of it isn't going to allow 2 teams in that didn't appear in their conference championship game from the same conference. It's tough to say that for 1 but OSU's resume is good enough to get over that bar. I think the bar might as well be on the moon for a 2nd to get in the same way and from the same conference no less.

There would be so many precedents made with that, I just can't see it. Two teams from the same conference, 1 team from the conference that didn't make the champ game and then a 2nd team from a conference that also didn't make the champ game. That's a bridge too far IMO.

The selection committee has been directed by the 10 FBS commissioners in its protocol to use head-to-head results and conference championships as tiebreakers when résumés are comparable.

Therefore, the first debate is whether Michigan's resume is comparable to Penn State's or Wisconsin's and that is debatable.

I think Michigan's 3 top 10 wins and 2 close losses builds a resume that overwhelms Penn State's 1 top 10 win, 1 close lose and 1 bad loss resume and Wisconsin's 0 top 10 wins and 2 close loss resume.

However, if one feels that the resumes of those 3 teams is comparable then which tiebreaker is more important.
a conference championship or head to head results ?

Wisconsin or Penn State can win a conference championship,
because, of divisional alignments and tiebreaker rules within a division. But, when it comes to head-to-head results between those 3 teams, Michigan beat Wisconsin by 7 points and Penn State by 39 points.

Politics shouldn't be entered into the equation.

 

[Plum Street]

OSU tends to peak late in the season. Last year they would probably have won the NC last year if not for that one loss mid-season after playing too many cupcakes in a row. Then OSU came on big. I'm not overly impressed with Bama's schedule this year and don't consider them unbeatable. If anyone can do it OSU can.

What are you talking about ? OSU lost late last season to Michigan state.

 

[rutgersguy1]

The selection committee has been directed by the 10 FBS commissioners in its protocol to use head-to-head results and conference championships as tiebreakers when résumés are comparable.

Therefore, the first debate is whether Michigan's resume is comparable to Penn State's or Wisconsin's and that is debatable.

I think Michigan's 3 top 10 wins and 2 close losses builds a resume that overwhelms Penn State's 1 top 10 win, 1 close lose and 1 bad loss resume and Wisconsin's 0 top 10 wins and 2 close loss resume.

However, if one feels that the resumes of those 3 teams is comparable then which tiebreaker is more important.
a conference championship or head to head results ?

Wisconsin or Penn State can win a conference championship,
because, of divisional alignments and tiebreaker rules within a division. But, when it comes to head-to-head results between those 3 teams, Michigan beat Wisconsin by 7 points and Penn State by 39 points.

Politics shouldn't be entered into the equation.

Wisconsin would have 1 extra win and possibly as many as 4 wins over CFP ranked teams and 1 in the top 10. We'll find that out later tonight. That extra win, the conference championship and 4 ranked wins to me is more than enough resume wise to keep them ahead of Michigan despite a close head to head loss on the road.

PSU could have as many a 3 wins against ranked teams and possibly 2 against top 10 but they have a big blow out loss and a close loss to Pitt which may or may not get ranked in the final rankings.

You can say politics shouldn't matter but they always do regardless what should or shouldn't matter. That's why you have the G5 getting a new year's bowl or smaller conferences getting autobids in the NCAA tourney. It happens. Getting 2 teams in from one conferences is a high enough hurdle in itself to overcome add in neither made the conference championship let alone win it and to me it becomes almost a non starter.

 

[PSUPOWER]

Wisconsin would have 1 extra win and possibly as many as 4 wins over CFP ranked teams and 1 in the top 10. We'll find that out later tonight. That extra win, the conference championship and 4 ranked wins to me is more than enough resume wise to keep them ahead of Michigan despite a close head to head loss on the road.

PSU could have as many a 3 wins against ranked teams and possibly 2 against top 10 but they have a big blow out loss and a close loss to Pitt which may or may not get ranked in the final rankings.

You can say politics shouldn't matter but they always do regardless what should or shouldn't matter. That's why you have the G5 getting a new year's bowl or smaller conferences getting autobids in the NCAA tourney. It happens. Getting 2 teams in from one conferences is a high enough hurdle in itself to overcome add in neither made the conference championship let alone win it and to me it becomes almost a non starter.

I agree that politics could play a bigger role in this years selections than it should as well as regional provincialism.
Do people out West or down South want to see 3 B1G teams in the Final Four ? Of course not.

 

[cicero grimes]

I don't see how you could take 2 from the B10 and neither be the conference champ and on top of that not even make the champ game. OSU yes but I can't see any way Michigan gets in. Yes the top 10 wins are nice but you can't just disregard the losses and the lack of championship or championship appearance completely.

Pitt has 2 top 10 wins as well against Clemson/PSU but obviously they're not going in because of the rest of the resume. It's also likely Colorado could slip out of the top 10 if they lose and maybe the PSU/Wisconsin loser although both losers would still be ranked.

If the B10 gets 2 in it's going to be OSU and the winner of PSU/Wisconsin. I can't see Michigan getting in. They could get the Rose Bowl though.

I agree if the B1G gets two it is OSU plus the championship game winner. But I do think in order for that to happen Clemson or Washington have to lose. I do think PSU/Wisky are both better than Washington but it would be hard to take a two loss team over a once beaten conf champ Washington.

 

[rutgersguy1]

I agree if the B1G gets two it is OSU plus the championship game winner. But I do think in order for that to happen Clemson or Washington have to lose. I do think PSU/Wisky are both better than Washington but it would be hard to take a two loss team over a once beaten conf champ Washington.

I definitely can see that. They could need a little help. I was just comparing them to Michigan who think has little to no chance.

 

[PSUPOWER]

Michigan finishes their regular season with the best 2-loss resume in the country. Michigan has a very strong 10-2 resume.

Michigan's only losses were at #2 Ohio State by 3 and at #25 Iowa by 1.

In their loss against Ohio State, Michigan played like the 3rd best team in the country. And their loss at Iowa occurred when Iowa made a Field Goal as time expired.

Like Ohio State, Michigan has also beaten three top 10 teams.
Michigan has beaten #9 Colorado by 17.
They have beaten 10-2 Penn State by 39.
And Michigan has beaten #5 Wisconsin by 7.

Michigan has beaten 3 times as many top 10 teams as any other team in the country except Ohio State and they should be rewarded for that.

The committee spoke:

01 Alabama
02 Ohio State
03 Clemson
04 Washington
05 Michigan
06 Wisconsin
07 Penn State
08 Colorado
09 Oklahoma
10 Oklahoma State

 

[rutgersguy1]

Yea right now Michigan is 5 but I think they can be jumped when this weekend is over. Like they said TCU fell out on the last weekend, in the same fashion I can see Michigan being jumped by any of Wisconsin/PSU/Colorado even though they beat all of them lol. The extra win and conference championship can do it IMO.

Actually think Wisconsin's chances might have gone down a little because now Nebraska is out and Iowa didn't get in, so at best they'll have PSU and LSU as their 2 ranked wins but they do have the best quality losses of the bunch.

I think Colorado's chances might have improved because Utah actually moved up 2 spots after losing to Colorado last week. I don't know how that works. So that would give Colorado 3 wins over top 10 ranked Washington and ranked Stanford/Utah. A close loss to ranked USC and big loss to Michigan.

PSU would have a wins over top ranked Wisconsin and OSU and close loss to ranked Pitt and big loss to Michigan.

So to me Colorado can stack up to PSU and Wisconsin. I kind of feel like it could be setup for whomever wins the PAC12 to get in (politics maybe). I've been all over the map on this as the last couple weeks have played out haha.

 

[RU31trap]

PSU isn't getting in OVER OSU nor are they "winning in a rout." I think Wiscy wins, to be honest, as it's not only a good matchup for them, but, they're a lot more accustomed to games of this nature as a program at this time. Could be wrong on the "w," however, no "route" either way IMHO.

What if Penn State wins?

 

[SkilletHead2]

Bama and OSU are locked in at #1 and #2 unless Clemson or Washington win by 40 points or more. They are inarguably the teams with the two best records in the country. Bama's not losing to Florida, and OSU isn't losing to anybody on Saturday.

The battle is for #3 and #4. Clemson looks very strong against Va Tech, so the issue is the Washington/Colorado game. Could definitely see that going to the Buffs. If so, Michigan slides into #4. Only way that wouldn't happen is if Wisky or PSU win by 30 or 40, and that is unlikely (although Wisky might do it).

That would leave us with Bama, OSU, Clemson, and Michigan. And I think they would be the four best teams in the country. I give Michigan as good a chance as anybody to beat Bama, because that lunatic Harbaugh is a hell of a football coach. If Washington wins, they stay fourth and get clobbered by Bama.

And whoever said that Bama hasn't played anybody had to either be kidding or sarcastic. They are 5-0 against Sagarin top 30 teams; nobody else has 4 wins. And I hate Bama.

 

[shields]

Colorado struggled with Wash State and Wash blew out State. Washington by two touchdowns.

 

[St_Henry_Buckeye]

What if Penn State wins?

Maybe the Rose Bowl. No shot at the playoffs.

 

[PSUPOWER]

Colorado struggled with Wash State and Wash blew out State. Washington by two touchdowns.

The #4 Washington vs. #8 Colorado game will be on FOX on Friday night at 9pm.

 

[PSUPOWER]

Maybe the Rose Bowl. No shot at the playoffs.

B1G Conference Play:

Penn State 8-1
Michigan 7-2
Wisconsin 7-2

Head-To-Head Matchups:
Michigan beat Wisconsin by 7 points
Michigan beat Penn State by 39 points
Penn State and Wisconsin haven't played yet

Michigan 2-0
Wisconsin 0-1
Penn State 0-1

Conference Points Scored:
Michigan 492
Penn State 439
Wisconsin 340

Conference Points Given Up:
Michigan 150
Wisconsin 164
Penn State 273

Conference Point Differential:
Michigan +342
Wisconsin +176
Penn State +166

Best OOC Win:
Michigan beat Colorado by 17 points

Worst OOC Loss:
Pittsburgh beat Penn State by 3 points

Michigan is much closer to Washington than
Wisconsin or Penn State is to Michigan.

If Colorado beats Washington Michigan is in.

 

[RUfromSoCal?]

As we all now know, the Playoff is just a made-for-TV-series.

The "committee" knows who they want on the big show before the games even start...

Baring an unforeseen loss by one of the top 4.. Ala, Clemson, tOSU, UW will be in the playoffs. Meechigan and the B1G conference winner can whine all they want... they will have to play in a NYD bowl

IF UW or Clemson loses, then Meechigan will be in playoffs -- unless statepenn wins by 40 (then they will jump UM).

IF by some miracle both UW AND Clemson lose BIG AND statepenn wins big... B1G will have 3 teams in playoffs (unbelievably)

p.s.... Ala is in the playoffs no matter what..........

ironically - tOSU has the absolutely easiest path.... they don't have to play - still get in....

 

[BigEastPhil]

OSU will not win NC as Barrett does not have the "it" factor

 

[WhiteBus]

I wish Ohio State gets the chance to play Alabama. They are the only team that has a very good chance to beat them. Beyond that I don't understand the call for 8 or 16 teams. Just nonsense. Their are 2 great teams in the country. The rest is just fill in for T.V. content

 

[Southern Gentleman]

I agree that politics could play a bigger role in this years selections than it should as well as regional provincialism.
Do people out West or down South want to see 3 B1G teams in the Final Four ? Of course not.

Actually it doesn't bother me in the least if 2 or even 3 teams from the B1G made it into the 4 team playoff this year or any year. The playoff is supposed to match up the best 4 teams in the country. If 3 of them are from the B1G, so be it!

Just don't get upset if at some time in the future, the SEC has 2-3 teams in the 4 team playoff.

 

[PSUPOWER]

Actually it doesn't bother me in the least if 2 or even 3 teams from the B1G made it into the 4 team playoff this year or any year. The playoff is supposed to match up the best 4 teams in the country. If 3 of them are from the B1G, so be it!

Just don't get upset if at some time in the future, the SEC has 2-3 teams in the 4 team playoff.

I want the 8 best teams in the country in the playoffs each year.
If 4 of those 8 teams were from the SEC then so be it.

 

[R1950]

Bama hasn't really played anyone good yet. We won't know if they are legit until the playoffs.

OSU plays like the best team in the country one week and barely wins the next. Who knows what you will get with them.

Who will be 3 and 4? Clemson will get in if they win the ACC, it will depend on who wins the Big Ten. If Wisconsin beats Penn State they will get in, if Penn State wins and Washington wins the PAC-12, Washington will get in. Penn State can't get in even if they win the Big Ten.unless Washington loses.

IMHO.

This. Hard to figure this team out. Considering what we lost to the NFL, I have no complaints. They can beat Alabama but on the other hand......Just depends on what team shows up.

 

[PSUPOWER]

Bama and OSU are locked in at #1 and #2 unless Clemson or Washington win by 40 points or more. They are inarguably the teams with the two best records in the country. Bama's not losing to Florida, and OSU isn't losing to anybody on Saturday.

The battle is for #3 and #4. Clemson looks very strong against Va Tech, so the issue is the Washington/Colorado game. Could definitely see that going to the Buffs. If so, Michigan slides into #4. Only way that wouldn't happen is if Wisky or PSU win by 30 or 40, and that is unlikely (although Wisky might do it).

That would leave us with Bama, OSU, Clemson, and Michigan. And I think they would be the four best teams in the country. I give Michigan as good a chance as anybody to beat Bama, because that lunatic Harbaugh is a hell of a football coach. If Washington wins, they stay fourth and get clobbered by Bama.

And whoever said that Bama hasn't played anybody had to either be kidding or sarcastic. They are 5-0 against Sagarin top 30 teams; nobody else has 4 wins. And I hate Bama.

According to teamrankings.com, the B1G also plays some of the strongest schedules in the country(see link below).

1 Ohio State
2 Michigan
3 Alabama
4 LSU
5 Wisconsin

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other

Schedule Strength of Committee Top 10:

01 Alabama 3rd strongest schedule
02 Ohio State 1st strongest schedule
03 Clemson 9th strongest schedule
04 Washington 17th strongest schedule
05 Michigan 2nd strongest schedule
06 Wisconsin 5th strongest schedule
07 Penn State 14th strongest schedule
08 Colorado 11th strongest schedule
09 Oklahoma 10th strongest schedule
10 Oklahoma State 49th strongest schedule