For those who, like me, we’re around for the Wenzel era, tell me why I should not expect us to drop back into oblivion in 2-3 years. Bob also had two ncaa appearances. They were even earlier in his stint than Pike. Then nothing, and the change to the Big East didn’t come til his last 2 yrs. This is not trolling. Other than two one-and-dones please give me your reasons for optimism that the ship can be righted, especially for 2025-26 and beyond.
Dream Big Dreams
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Right now there's no reason to expect that. That's why next year is so critical - it's either going to be sustained success for Pike, or a long, long road til he's no longer our coach.
I'm not sure that the improvement in RU's national perception will positively impact 2025-26 and beyond. Particularly because both Ace and Dylan apparently are gonna be here for just the one season. But if one factors in that if Cooper Flagg had not reclassified and immediately become this year's #1 recruit Rutgers would be adding three other quality freshmen plus the two top recruits in the 2024 class all RU fans should be saying right now is "damn, I can't wait 'til next season".
We're all in for a treat...a treat I never thought possible. And I'm a Rutgers fan who has been following Rutgers basketball since the Bob Lloyd/Jim Valvano days.
Who cares? Expect what you want. Just wait and see what happens.
College sports are a year by year thing right now. Impossible to predict the future, just enjoy next year and hope the kids stay healthy.
Bc Pike has proven himself over and over. But he does need a strong 2024 showing. If it goes well, momentum will carry over to 2025
I wasn’t suggesting you had, maybe just jesting that it would be a good idea for me after my post. Levity.
What’s your specific reason for optimism other than two one and dones, especially after the last 13 1/2 months? Honestly. I want to share your optimism
Upgrade in talent level, new teams in Big Ten, staff learning and doing a better job of roster management (take nothing for granted).
With the portal, each year can be dramatically different than the last on an up or down note. No reason to look ahead more than a year.
I mean, two one and dones is a reason.
What happened in the 1990s has no relation to today. If we go back to giving no institutional support to basketball then sure, we’ll become irrelevant again but there’s no sign that is happening.
You are way too focused on relatively short term trends. Unless you think Pikiell has entered steep cognitive decline or something there’s no real reason to single out the last 13.5 months instead of just looking at his whole tenure.
As long as Pike stays and there is institutional support he has shown enough that at worst I think we would be mediocre, in the tournament sometimes, not sometimes, but definitely not irrelevant.
Did Pike make some mistakes this season/off-season? Sure, absolutely. He also had pretty much everything go against him. Even so, it’s not like we went 2-18. We went 7-13 and were barely outside the top 100. It’s not good but it’s not the abject disaster / embarrassment that the drama queens here are making it out to be. The angst is just way overblown.
I acknowledged the two one and dones are worthwhile, that’s why I said “other than”.
I said 13 1/2 months because that’s when the atrocious slide started. It wasn’t just this season. I could have went to the end of 2021-22 as well, which was less than stellar. Lost 8 of the last 15 and 5 of the last 10. Sort of limped into the ncaa play in. I like Pike and have posted on these boards I don’t think we’ll do any better. But he’s far from beyond criticism as we should expect better. Once 2020-21 happened why not want more of that? I would ask of Pike no more than I ask of my professional self. Assess and adjust. That’s all, I’m not calling for his head.
I liked Wenzel too and really thought we turned the corner back then. I was wrong. Thank you fluoxetine though, institutional buy in is a great point. That’s exactly a type of thing I wanted to read. That gives me optimism and is different than in the 1990s. I know this board is good for drawing sides and infighting, but I was really hoping for those who are optimistic to share why they are now.
Here's the thing.
I don't really think I'm optimistic, I think the view I am sharing is the base case. As I see it:
Bull case:
So far Pike has taken mainly a bunch of under recruited guys and produced three lower tier NCAA tournament teams (including 2020 as a projected tournament team) and a team that just missed. He had one disasterous offseason plus a lot of bad luck, ended up with a roster with literally no one who could put the ball in the basket, and still won 15 games against a top 25 SOS. No other coach has won more games than that at Rutgers since 2005-06.
He has the #2 and #3 recruiting coming in. Recruiting carries on, not at as a high a level as that, but much better than what we've seen up to this point. With more offensive talent, Pike's somewhat laissez faire offensive philosophy puts the #45 offense out there on average (we were around #70-#80 in the 2019-20 and 20-21 seasons). This combined with top ten defenses makes us a top twenty team year in and year out.
Bear case:
Pike got lucky with Geo/Ron/etc, this recruiting class is a fluke, Pike truly can't recruit that well and we end up long term with basically 2020-22 but slightly worse. We are often worse than #100 on offense, we are still always very good on defense, we are a bubble team sometimes and a 8-12 team sometimes but never really turn the corner.
Base Case
Obviously somewhere in between. We don't start recruiting at some super high level but we improve slightly from where we started under Pike as the program becomes more respectable. We're never very good on offense but we are obviously (and this is very obvious, even in the bear case, as most of the offenses Pike had at STONY BROOK were way better on a SOS adjusted basis than this year's team) not nearly as bad as this season. We are always very good on defense. We are often a bubble team, sometimes a little better (solidly in the tournament), sometimes a little worse (NITish) but never a consistent top 25 team.
We are in top sports conference
We have upgraded practice facilities
Upgrades to RAC coming to sell recruits
Pike could make NCAAs with lesser talent
Pike is a solid guy/coach so IF he doesn't win in next 2 years, program will not be a rock bottom shambled mess
We are paying for assistants on par with big programs to attract/keep top coaching staff
We found a way to pay NIL $ to top recruits to keep our blue bloods from coming in last minute & plucking recruits- when has that EVER happened before?
We are light years ahead of where we were back then..
We have upgraded practice facilities
Upgrades to RAC coming to sell recruits
Pike could make NCAAs with lesser talent
Pike is a solid guy/coach so IF he doesn't win in next 2 years, program will not be a rock bottom shambled mess
We are paying for assistants on par with big programs to attract/keep top coaching staff
We found a way to pay NIL $ to top recruits to keep our blue bloods from coming in last minute & plucking recruits- when has that EVER happened before?
We are light years ahead of where we were back then..
I like most of these, but not really the rac upgrades drawing recruits. I think the players could care less if the AD shoehorns in luxury suites. Most fans don’t want them either.
Also I’m not sure we’re flush with NIL, most of the Ace/Dylan NIL came from sources outside the norm. They won’t necessarily be available to us afterwards.
LOVE LOVE LOVE when you say Pike is a great guy with high character. Not that Wenzel wasn’t, but the B1G is much more cut throat than the A10 then and the fact that Pike has that as a differentiator is fantastic.
I do agree with most of your points. Thanks.
I think the future is pretty uncertain for most programs given the portal and NIL, and the skills and resources required for future success may have little to do with what has worked in the past.
I give Pike a pass for this season, some of our troubles clearly fall on the coaching staff, and past recruiting caught up with us, but when you have a team that can’t shoot, there is only so much you can do, and even the best coaches have down years.
Everyone should be excited for next year. The top level talent in this years class is better than it has been in at least a couple of years, and we have two top guys who are almost guaranteed top 5 draft picks to coming in to run the team. The coaching will definitely matter, but so will the talent, desire, hunger and will to win of Ace and Dylan.
For Pike to maximize next year, I will be watching for three things:
-Have next year’s team better prepared to start the season. Pike has been a notoriously slow starter, and the team has frequently looked unprepared early in the season, with unclear roles and rotations. There will always be growing pains with young players, but we need to start the season ready to play, with everyone knowing what their role is and what is expected of them.
-Adjust the offense and defense to play to the strength of the players coming in. The best coaches coach to the players, not a system, and Pike needs to put the players the best position to succeed. I forgot who said it but one of my favorite quotes is “the only person who can hold Michael Jordan under 30 points a game is Dean Smith”.
-Use more motion and better spacing on offense, and make sure we have several shooters on the floor. We are never going to be UConn, but we don’t need to be, we just need to be able to give our players room to operate, find open shots, and have some players who can hit them.
If he does those things we should be fine next year, and lay the groundwork for more success in the future.
I give Pike a pass for this season, some of our troubles clearly fall on the coaching staff, and past recruiting caught up with us, but when you have a team that can’t shoot, there is only so much you can do, and even the best coaches have down years.
Everyone should be excited for next year. The top level talent in this years class is better than it has been in at least a couple of years, and we have two top guys who are almost guaranteed top 5 draft picks to coming in to run the team. The coaching will definitely matter, but so will the talent, desire, hunger and will to win of Ace and Dylan.
For Pike to maximize next year, I will be watching for three things:
-Have next year’s team better prepared to start the season. Pike has been a notoriously slow starter, and the team has frequently looked unprepared early in the season, with unclear roles and rotations. There will always be growing pains with young players, but we need to start the season ready to play, with everyone knowing what their role is and what is expected of them.
-Adjust the offense and defense to play to the strength of the players coming in. The best coaches coach to the players, not a system, and Pike needs to put the players the best position to succeed. I forgot who said it but one of my favorite quotes is “the only person who can hold Michael Jordan under 30 points a game is Dean Smith”.
-Use more motion and better spacing on offense, and make sure we have several shooters on the floor. We are never going to be UConn, but we don’t need to be, we just need to be able to give our players room to operate, find open shots, and have some players who can hit them.
If he does those things we should be fine next year, and lay the groundwork for more success in the future.
RAC upgrades are more of a positive because we are continuing to invest in the infrastructure. Luxury boxes do attract bigger donor dollars. It's part of selling the experience to people that can make bigger contributions. Whether die hard dans like the boxes or not, it brings in more $ which we always need
In the past money was spent sparingly and facilities were not keeping pace with other programs. This time it feels different.
Keep the hope! You have kept hope for much longer darker periods where the wasn't much to be positive about.
Success breeds success. Being in the BIG 10 (including West Coast) is a plus, It's important next year to get out of the gate fast and successful before the signing period begins. People want to play on a winner and getting in the NCAAs and getting at least to sweet 16 would be a plus for beyond 2025.
Nil sponsors and donors will grow if we are making headlines. I am pretty confident that next year will be an exciting and thrilling year for the team and the fans.
Nil sponsors and donors will grow if we are making headlines. I am pretty confident that next year will be an exciting and thrilling year for the team and the fans.
“Other than the TWO NBA players who will play for us next year, give me reason for optimism in the future” …
Other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?
Other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?
It's easier to teach defense than offense
Pike turned Caleb into a national DPOY
He's getting the most offensive talent he has ever had
Pike turned Caleb into a national DPOY
He's getting the most offensive talent he has ever had
Ok so just that then. How did that work out for Michigan last year? Indiana this year? Many Kentucky teams who’ve underachieved but yet are full of four and five stars? Usc this year who had the number one recruit? Pretty weak answer for a cheap laugh. Still didn’t answer my question.
Plus the 82-83 team had two nba players and it didn’t mean much for success or NCAA wins after that.
Maybe take a break and get outside and enjoy the beautiful Spring weather. Obsessively doom posting on social media is unhealthy.
Man I get we are all Rutgers fans and have seen the RU screw many times but we have to stop with the sky is falling mentality. A few more reasons to the great ones already mentioned. (1) Pike CAN coach D and that alone will keep us competitive (2) not saying it’s a given every year but we found a way to play the NIL game for Ace and Dylan so that could repeat in the future and (3) if you look at Gavin and the rest of the non one and done 2024 class that is multiple top 200 recruits who won’t be one and dones.
Kentucky is 410-122 under Calipari. That's an average season of 27-8.
I posted in another thread but the Big Ten hasn't seen this kind of recruiting very often/essentially at all. Ace OR Dylan would be the highest rated recruit Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, or Illinois has landed at any point over the last 25 years. Think about that.
There's only one group of a Big Ten team that sticks out to me being similar to the class Pike is bringing in this year. The "Thad 5" OSU class of 2006 headlined by Greg Oden. May we have similar results as that team next year 🙏.
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Enjoy next year in basketball and football . Beyond that is anyone’s guess what will happen.
I have the t-shirt still so I’ll bite
We got into this mess by recruiting issues. Plain and simple
two classes that should be seniors and juniors next year
Jaden jones -not here
Jalen miller -not here
Antonio chol-not here
Antoine Wolfolk-TBD
Derek Simpson -TBD
I have said for THIRTY years our biggest problem was recruiting and getting those kids through SENIOR day. Until Pike, the low number was startling , and now it’s coming back again
We started possibly reversing the trend in the class of 2023 , and hopefully continuing with 2024…and I specifically mean Latham , Dylan G and Bryce ….
Need to add 2-3 players a year in the class of 2025 and 2026 and then
It will be fixed
Harder than ever in the portal ans NIL era …but you have to recruit four guys a year so that two will stick for four years…and then you have to that ir every year so you regularly have a roster with hopefully 4-5 upperclassman to compete
Watch 2025
And 2026 recruiting …that will tell you of next season will be a flash in the pan …or the stsrt of another run of sustained ncaa tournament bids….
That’s what I’m doing…watching it very closely
The program has been trending down last three years and that’s ok-ups and downs are part of it. But I will be concerned if after next season this team is not top half big ten; I think that is a reasonable expectation. The Offense has to drastically improve if there will be success-not saying anything new. But it is horrific after watching the past few days of other conferences. UCONN runs an offense and that’s why it’s so successful. Most of their possessions are geared towards finding a good shot instead of fabricating a shot. I’m tired of the NBA-like isolation/spread (with an extreme lack of screening-especially this year) RU and many other programs run a good deal of the time. Especially if we can’t shoot for sh*t. Not only is it boring, but it’s highly inefficient with the type of players RU has. It seems like we’ll run something decent to open halves but midway through the offensive system gets lost and off track and there are many empty possessions with forced shots-indicated by the abysmal FG%. Lack of off ball screening and movement with a bunch of guys standing around the perimeter does not give a chance for a good shot. One has to wonder what exactly they’re running on offense in practice. All an RU opponent has to do is play zone defense. If I had to guess RU banks on early offensive strategies but has a terrible time transitioning to a motion, set or zone game after the defense is set; it’s almost as if there’s no plan after and that’s what concerns me.
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lol. Other than the 2 best players to ever play at Rutgers, what is there to be happy about? 😂 I can’t lol this enough.
It is awesome no doubt, but if there’s no offensive system for them to score points it will be highly underwhelming.
You have to be careful with your expectations. You can’t just throw 5 to 8 new players together and expect them to gel or play at a high level right away.
Except the majority of teams will now be doing this now. It's the new landscape of college bball
I don’t think finishing in the top 9 of the big ten with two “lottery” picks is asking for much.
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