Been talking about this for a few days in the other storm thread and figured it's time to start a thread on this, partly because there's already a ton of media hype about it, probably because we've had 3 pretty impactful nor'easters in a row in the NY/NJ metro and NE US, in general. While the potential is major, it's so far out many things could make this a non-snowstorm, like suppression to our south by the colder air that will likely be in place or the track being too far inland bringing mostly rain. However, these past 3 nor'easters were all showing up as major storms on some models 7-8 days out and that is the case now. In addition, most major storms do show up well in advance, but not all pan out (and very few major storms give no indication of being major storms 7-8 days out).
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...3-likely-light-to-moderate-snow.141546/page-7
The NWS is already talking about it, TV mets are mentioning it and The Weather Channel has actually been doing segments on it every half hour with winter weather expert Tom Niziol. He's been doing a very nice job of explaining the ongoing pattern I've been talking about for weeks, with a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (a "blocking" high near/over Greenland) forcing the northern branch of the jet stream to dive deep down into the SE US and then return up the east coast, going around the west side of that blocking high; when the jet stream takes that path, it drives colder than normal air into the eastern US and is conducive for cyclogenesis of coastal storms off the east coast, producing wintry nor'easters.
There's no "guarantee" this pattern will produce snow, as many other things have to work out just right for us to get snow in this area (this isn't Syracuse), but patterns like this have historically been quite cold and snowy on average, as we've already seen. Not going to post the various model maps, since we're so far out things will change a lot - just note that every major global model shows a major winter storm in this timeframe, but not all are snowstorms. If you want to gawk at models, take a look at the 33andrain thread or post them yourselves - it's a free country, lol...
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/841-winter-2017-2018-the-encore/?page=14
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...3-likely-light-to-moderate-snow.141546/page-7
The NWS is already talking about it, TV mets are mentioning it and The Weather Channel has actually been doing segments on it every half hour with winter weather expert Tom Niziol. He's been doing a very nice job of explaining the ongoing pattern I've been talking about for weeks, with a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (a "blocking" high near/over Greenland) forcing the northern branch of the jet stream to dive deep down into the SE US and then return up the east coast, going around the west side of that blocking high; when the jet stream takes that path, it drives colder than normal air into the eastern US and is conducive for cyclogenesis of coastal storms off the east coast, producing wintry nor'easters.
There's no "guarantee" this pattern will produce snow, as many other things have to work out just right for us to get snow in this area (this isn't Syracuse), but patterns like this have historically been quite cold and snowy on average, as we've already seen. Not going to post the various model maps, since we're so far out things will change a lot - just note that every major global model shows a major winter storm in this timeframe, but not all are snowstorms. If you want to gawk at models, take a look at the 33andrain thread or post them yourselves - it's a free country, lol...
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/841-winter-2017-2018-the-encore/?page=14