2/10: Just a taste of 2025 NCAA BACATOLOGY

[bac2therac]

Going to use a template I did from previous years giving y'all just a taste of what is to come.

No...its not here yet. As you guys know I am just not a fan of early season bracketology. I know we are in the 2nd week of February but the selection show is still almost 5 weeks away. Still have a long way to go and I think bracketologists fall in love with certain schools and narratives and 7-9 conference game left for most schools. Things can change on a dime. Resumes still are not complete. There are just too many games to play. Seeding can be a nightmare at this time with schools so tightly packed around each other. Just going to try and give a rough outline here with respect to the contender for top seeds and my initial analysis will just focus on the contenders reminding everyone there are plenty of games to go which means there are tons of opportunities for some of the schools closer to the last in line to gather and collect quality wins while teams further up may stumble and not add much to their resume. Just a snapshot in time of what things look like today.

68 schools selected, 31 AQs (automatic qualifiers from conferences), 37 at larges...that is a plus one for the at larges with the Pac 12 going belly up at least for this year.


Here are the current AQs at this time...meaning if the field was selected today these teams would represent their conference since they are in first place. Its not a projection. Some do that or use highest NET. This is just who is in first today.

• SEC: AUBURN
• BIG 12: HOUSTON
• BIG 10: PURDUE
• BIG EAST: SAINT JOHN'S
• ACC: DUKE
• MWC: NEW MEXIC0
• A10: GEORGE MASON
• CUSA: JACKSONVILLE STATE
• WCC: SAINT MARY'S
• MVC: DRAKE
• AAC: MEMPHIS
• BIG WEST: UC SAN DIEGO
• SOUTHERN: SAMFORD
• IVY: YALE
• WAC: UTAH VALLEY STATE
• CAA: TOWSON
• BIG SOUTH: HIGH POINT
• SUMMIT: OMAHA
• HORIZON: CLEVELAND STATE
• SUN BELT: ARKANSAS STATE
• SOUTHLAND: MC NEESE STATE
• BIG SKY: NORTHERN COLORADO
• MAC: AKRON
• A SUN: FLORIDA GULF COAST
• A EAST: BRYANT
• MAAC: MERRIMACK
• PATRIOT: AMERICAN
• OH VALLEY: LITTLE ROCK
• MEAC: NORFOLK STATE
• NEC: CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE
• SWAC: SOUTHERN

Here are my projected #1 seeds: AUBURN, DUKE, ALABAMA, TENNESSEE. Very high confidence that at least 3 of these schools will wind up at #1 seeds. 3 from the SEC. They seem a cut above the rest. HOUSTON could have a shot but right now just does not have the Q1 wins the other schools do.

So now getting to the at larges. ....37 at large bids available including 2 at large #1s. Going to group them by catagory. For this week not going to get into nitty gritty details with them but look for that in the future.

MORTAL LOCKS (would take act of God to miss)

• FLORIDA
• ARIZONA
• TEXAS A&M
• TEXAS TECH
• MICHIGAN STATE
• KANSAS
• IOWA STATE
• MARQUETTE
• KENTUCKY
• WISCONSIN
• MARYLAND

LOOKING LIKELY (have built strong profiles and only need to avoid implosion down the stretch...example Rutgers in 2023)

• UCLA
• ILLINOIS
• MISSISSIPPI
• MISSISSIPPI STATE
• CLEMSON
• LOUISVILLE
• MICHIGAN
• MISSOURI
• CREIGHTON

SAFE FOR NOW/ABOVE THE BUBBLE (would not catagorize them as bubble but that can change with losses down the stretch)

• BAYLOR
• GONZAGA
• CONNECTICUT
• UTAH STATE
• OREGON

So that takes care of 27 of the 37 at larges that all are at least above the bubble...10 spots and there are 33 schools competing for them

BUBBLICIOUS (in order from safest to last in)

• OKLAHOMA
• WEST VIRGINIA
• NEBRASKA
• SAN DIEGO STATE
• TEXAS
• OHIO STATE
• VANDERBILT
• GEORGIA
• ARKANSAS
• WAKE FOREST

WRONG SIDE OF BUBBLE

• VCU
• XAVIER
• NORTH CAROLINA
• PITTSBURGH
• BYU
• DAYTON
• BOISE STATE
• ARIZONA STATE
• CENTRAL FLORIDA
• KANSAS STATE
• USC
• SMU
• UC IRVINE
• CINCINNATI
• NORTHWESTERN
• INDIANA
• SAN FRANCISCO
• SANTA CLARA
• VILLANOVA
• TCU
• COLORADO STATE
• NORTH TEXAS
• RUTGERS

Multiple Bid League

SEC: 14!
Big 10: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 4
Big East: 4
MWC: 3
WCC: 2


I will take your questions and highlight specific schools as we go through the week, Just wanted to get this out there. Putting 14 out of 16 SEC schools seems over the top and outrageous but remember it is not a prediction. Just a current snapshot in time. SEC schools still have 8 games to play. It almost guaranteed one or two schools will play themselves out of the field....GEORGIA on my mind and let us see if Calipari can hold it together at ARKANSAS and give them that needed push

I will get into some specifics about the A10 at large situation tomorrow and DRAKE'S at large situation

While the bubble seems weak as it did last year...its weak until it isnt and we found that out last year. ALOT of games to be played. I cannot repeat myself enough.

 

[rubigtimenow]

Thanks for the info. I enjoy your analysis on this topic. You’re a great bracketologist.
And we only need to climb over 23 other teams!!

 

[goru7]

Going to use a template I did from previous years giving y'all just a taste of what is to come.

No...its not here yet. As you guys know I am just not a fan of early season bracketology. I know we are in the 2nd week of February but the selection show is still almost 5 weeks away. Still have a long way to go and I think bracketologists fall in love with certain schools and narratives and 7-9 conference game left for most schools. Things can change on a dime. Resumes still are not complete. There are just too many games to play. Seeding can be a nightmare at this time with schools so tightly packed around each other. Just going to try and give a rough outline here with respect to the contender for top seeds and my initial analysis will just focus on the contenders reminding everyone there are plenty of games to go which means there are tons of opportunities for some of the schools closer to the last in line to gather and collect quality wins while teams further up may stumble and not add much to their resume. Just a snapshot in time of what things look like today.

68 schools selected, 31 AQs (automatic qualifiers from conferences), 37 at larges...that is a plus one for the at larges with the Pac 12 going belly up at least for this year.


Here are the current AQs at this time...meaning if the field was selected today these teams would represent their conference since they are in first place. Its not a projection. Some do that or use highest NET. This is just who is in first today.

• SEC: AUBURN
• BIG 12: HOUSTON
• BIG 10: PURDUE
• BIG EAST: SAINT JOHN'S
• ACC: DUKE
• MWC: NEW MEXIC0
• A10: GEORGE MASON
• CUSA: JACKSONVILLE STATE
• WCC: SAINT MARY'S
• MVC: DRAKE
• AAC: MEMPHIS
• BIG WEST: UC SAN DIEGO
• SOUTHERN: SAMFORD
• IVY: YALE
• WAC: UTAH VALLEY STATE
• CAA: TOWSON
• BIG SOUTH: HIGH POINT
• SUMMIT: OMAHA
• HORIZON: CLEVELAND STATE
• SUN BELT: ARKANSAS STATE
• SOUTHLAND: MC NEESE STATE
• BIG SKY: NORTHERN COLORADO
• MAC: AKRON
• A SUN: FLORIDA GULF COAST
• A EAST: BRYANT
• MAAC: MERRIMACK
• PATRIOT: AMERICAN
• OH VALLEY: LITTLE ROCK
• MEAC: NORFOLK STATE
• NEC: CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE
• SWAC: SOUTHERN

Here are my projected #1 seeds: AUBURN, DUKE, ALABAMA, TENNESSEE. Very high confidence that at least 3 of these schools will wind up at #1 seeds. 3 from the SEC. They seem a cut above the rest. HOUSTON could have a shot but right now just does not have the Q1 wins the other schools do.

So now getting to the at larges. ....37 at large bids available including 2 at large #1s. Going to group them by catagory. For this week not going to get into nitty gritty details with them but look for that in the future.

MORTAL LOCKS (would take act of God to miss)

• FLORIDA
• ARIZONA
• TEXAS A&M
• TEXAS TECH
• MICHIGAN STATE
• KANSAS
• IOWA STATE
• MARQUETTE
• KENTUCKY
• WISCONSIN
• MARYLAND

LOOKING LIKELY (have built strong profiles and only need to avoid implosion down the stretch...example Rutgers in 2023)

• UCLA
• ILLINOIS
• MISSISSIPPI
• MISSISSIPPI STATE
• CLEMSON
• LOUISVILLE
• MICHIGAN
• MISSOURI
• CREIGHTON

SAFE FOR NOW/ABOVE THE BUBBLE (would not catagorize them as bubble but that can change with losses down the stretch)

• BAYLOR
• GONZAGA
• CONNECTICUT
• UTAH STATE
• OREGON

So that takes care of 27 of the 37 at larges that all are at least above the bubble...10 spots and there are 33 schools competing for them

BUBBLICIOUS (in order from safest to last in)

• OKLAHOMA
• WEST VIRGINIA
• NEBRASKA
• SAN DIEGO STATE
• TEXAS
• OHIO STATE
• VANDERBILT
• GEORGIA
• ARKANSAS
• WAKE FOREST

WRONG SIDE OF BUBBLE

• VCU
• XAVIER
• NORTH CAROLINA
• PITTSBURGH
• BYU
• DAYTON
• BOISE STATE
• ARIZONA STATE
• CENTRAL FLORIDA
• KANSAS STATE
• USC
• SMU
• UC IRVINE
• CINCINNATI
• NORTHWESTERN
• INDIANA
• SAN FRANCISCO
• SANTA CLARA
• VILLANOVA
• TCU
• COLORADO STATE
• NORTH TEXAS
• RUTGERS

Multiple Bid League

SEC: 14!
Big 10: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 4
Big East: 4
MWC: 3
WCC: 2


I will take your questions and highlight specific schools as we go through the week, Just wanted to get this out there. Putting 14 out of 16 SEC schools seems over the top and outrageous but remember it is not a prediction. Just a current snapshot in time. SEC schools still have 8 games to play. It almost guaranteed one or two schools will play themselves out of the field....GEORGIA on my mind and let us see if Calipari can hold it together at ARKANSAS and give them that needed push

I will get into some specifics about the A10 at large situation tomorrow and DRAKE'S at large situation

While the bubble seems weak as it did last year...its weak until it isnt and we found that out last year. ALOT of games to be played. I cannot repeat myself enough.

Great early analysis as usual. As of now , think Georgia and Arkansas can be bumped out of the last 10 and replaced by VCU and BYU. That takes SEC down to 12 teams , which in most years is a lot but not this year. Georgia and Arkansas and Oklahoma will play themselves out in my opinion. The SEC is unforgiving and a 5 game losing streak is on the cards for those teams. Dayton is killing themselves as they had the best out of conference wins but cannot take care of business. San Francisco will be the other bubble that seems above the rest right now. Xavier as well.

 

[NJHoops17]

Going to use a template I did from previous years giving y'all just a taste of what is to come.

No...its not here yet. As you guys know I am just not a fan of early season bracketology. I know we are in the 2nd week of February but the selection show is still almost 5 weeks away. Still have a long way to go and I think bracketologists fall in love with certain schools and narratives and 7-9 conference game left for most schools. Things can change on a dime. Resumes still are not complete. There are just too many games to play. Seeding can be a nightmare at this time with schools so tightly packed around each other. Just going to try and give a rough outline here with respect to the contender for top seeds and my initial analysis will just focus on the contenders reminding everyone there are plenty of games to go which means there are tons of opportunities for some of the schools closer to the last in line to gather and collect quality wins while teams further up may stumble and not add much to their resume. Just a snapshot in time of what things look like today.

68 schools selected, 31 AQs (automatic qualifiers from conferences), 37 at larges...that is a plus one for the at larges with the Pac 12 going belly up at least for this year.


Here are the current AQs at this time...meaning if the field was selected today these teams would represent their conference since they are in first place. Its not a projection. Some do that or use highest NET. This is just who is in first today.

• SEC: AUBURN
• BIG 12: HOUSTON
• BIG 10: PURDUE
• BIG EAST: SAINT JOHN'S
• ACC: DUKE
• MWC: NEW MEXIC0
• A10: GEORGE MASON
• CUSA: JACKSONVILLE STATE
• WCC: SAINT MARY'S
• MVC: DRAKE
• AAC: MEMPHIS
• BIG WEST: UC SAN DIEGO
• SOUTHERN: SAMFORD
• IVY: YALE
• WAC: UTAH VALLEY STATE
• CAA: TOWSON
• BIG SOUTH: HIGH POINT
• SUMMIT: OMAHA
• HORIZON: CLEVELAND STATE
• SUN BELT: ARKANSAS STATE
• SOUTHLAND: MC NEESE STATE
• BIG SKY: NORTHERN COLORADO
• MAC: AKRON
• A SUN: FLORIDA GULF COAST
• A EAST: BRYANT
• MAAC: MERRIMACK
• PATRIOT: AMERICAN
• OH VALLEY: LITTLE ROCK
• MEAC: NORFOLK STATE
• NEC: CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE
• SWAC: SOUTHERN

Here are my projected #1 seeds: AUBURN, DUKE, ALABAMA, TENNESSEE. Very high confidence that at least 3 of these schools will wind up at #1 seeds. 3 from the SEC. They seem a cut above the rest. HOUSTON could have a shot but right now just does not have the Q1 wins the other schools do.

So now getting to the at larges. ....37 at large bids available including 2 at large #1s. Going to group them by catagory. For this week not going to get into nitty gritty details with them but look for that in the future.

MORTAL LOCKS (would take act of God to miss)

• FLORIDA
• ARIZONA
• TEXAS A&M
• TEXAS TECH
• MICHIGAN STATE
• KANSAS
• IOWA STATE
• MARQUETTE
• KENTUCKY
• WISCONSIN
• MARYLAND

LOOKING LIKELY (have built strong profiles and only need to avoid implosion down the stretch...example Rutgers in 2023)

• UCLA
• ILLINOIS
• MISSISSIPPI
• MISSISSIPPI STATE
• CLEMSON
• LOUISVILLE
• MICHIGAN
• MISSOURI
• CREIGHTON

SAFE FOR NOW/ABOVE THE BUBBLE (would not catagorize them as bubble but that can change with losses down the stretch)

• BAYLOR
• GONZAGA
• CONNECTICUT
• UTAH STATE
• OREGON

So that takes care of 27 of the 37 at larges that all are at least above the bubble...10 spots and there are 33 schools competing for them

BUBBLICIOUS (in order from safest to last in)

• OKLAHOMA
• WEST VIRGINIA
• NEBRASKA
• SAN DIEGO STATE
• TEXAS
• OHIO STATE
• VANDERBILT
• GEORGIA
• ARKANSAS
• WAKE FOREST

WRONG SIDE OF BUBBLE

• VCU
• XAVIER
• NORTH CAROLINA
• PITTSBURGH
• BYU
• DAYTON
• BOISE STATE
• ARIZONA STATE
• CENTRAL FLORIDA
• KANSAS STATE
• USC
• SMU
• UC IRVINE
• CINCINNATI
• NORTHWESTERN
• INDIANA
• SAN FRANCISCO
• SANTA CLARA
• VILLANOVA
• TCU
• COLORADO STATE
• NORTH TEXAS
• RUTGERS

Multiple Bid League

SEC: 14!
Big 10: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 4
Big East: 4
MWC: 3
WCC: 2


I will take your questions and highlight specific schools as we go through the week, Just wanted to get this out there. Putting 14 out of 16 SEC schools seems over the top and outrageous but remember it is not a prediction. Just a current snapshot in time. SEC schools still have 8 games to play. It almost guaranteed one or two schools will play themselves out of the field....GEORGIA on my mind and let us see if Calipari can hold it together at ARKANSAS and give them that needed push

I will get into some specifics about the A10 at large situation tomorrow and DRAKE'S at large situation

While the bubble seems weak as it did last year...its weak until it isnt and we found that out last year. ALOT of games to be played. I cannot repeat myself enough.

I agree with most of your groups for the bracket. I would probably move Clemson and UCLA to "Mortal Locks". Both teams have very strong resumes in Quad 1+2, especially Clemson with their win against Duke.

Great analysis!

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Sadly that seems like an overly optimistic picture of Rutgers At Large position.

At 12-12 are we really even positioned to finish ahead of the 5 loss teams like George Mason? I know we played a tougher schedule but 7 extra losses is a crap load.

 

[Knight Owl]

Going to use a template I did from previous years giving y'all just a taste of what is to come.

No...its not here yet. As you guys know I am just not a fan of early season bracketology. I know we are in the 2nd week of February but the selection show is still almost 5 weeks away. Still have a long way to go and I think bracketologists fall in love with certain schools and narratives and 7-9 conference game left for most schools. Things can change on a dime. Resumes still are not complete. There are just too many games to play. Seeding can be a nightmare at this time with schools so tightly packed around each other. Just going to try and give a rough outline here with respect to the contender for top seeds and my initial analysis will just focus on the contenders reminding everyone there are plenty of games to go which means there are tons of opportunities for some of the schools closer to the last in line to gather and collect quality wins while teams further up may stumble and not add much to their resume. Just a snapshot in time of what things look like today.

68 schools selected, 31 AQs (automatic qualifiers from conferences), 37 at larges...that is a plus one for the at larges with the Pac 12 going belly up at least for this year.


Here are the current AQs at this time...meaning if the field was selected today these teams would represent their conference since they are in first place. Its not a projection. Some do that or use highest NET. This is just who is in first today.

• SEC: AUBURN
• BIG 12: HOUSTON
• BIG 10: PURDUE
• BIG EAST: SAINT JOHN'S
• ACC: DUKE
• MWC: NEW MEXIC0
• A10: GEORGE MASON
• CUSA: JACKSONVILLE STATE
• WCC: SAINT MARY'S
• MVC: DRAKE
• AAC: MEMPHIS
• BIG WEST: UC SAN DIEGO
• SOUTHERN: SAMFORD
• IVY: YALE
• WAC: UTAH VALLEY STATE
• CAA: TOWSON
• BIG SOUTH: HIGH POINT
• SUMMIT: OMAHA
• HORIZON: CLEVELAND STATE
• SUN BELT: ARKANSAS STATE
• SOUTHLAND: MC NEESE STATE
• BIG SKY: NORTHERN COLORADO
• MAC: AKRON
• A SUN: FLORIDA GULF COAST
• A EAST: BRYANT
• MAAC: MERRIMACK
• PATRIOT: AMERICAN
• OH VALLEY: LITTLE ROCK
• MEAC: NORFOLK STATE
• NEC: CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE
• SWAC: SOUTHERN

Here are my projected #1 seeds: AUBURN, DUKE, ALABAMA, TENNESSEE. Very high confidence that at least 3 of these schools will wind up at #1 seeds. 3 from the SEC. They seem a cut above the rest. HOUSTON could have a shot but right now just does not have the Q1 wins the other schools do.

So now getting to the at larges. ....37 at large bids available including 2 at large #1s. Going to group them by catagory. For this week not going to get into nitty gritty details with them but look for that in the future.

MORTAL LOCKS (would take act of God to miss)

• FLORIDA
• ARIZONA
• TEXAS A&M
• TEXAS TECH
• MICHIGAN STATE
• KANSAS
• IOWA STATE
• MARQUETTE
• KENTUCKY
• WISCONSIN
• MARYLAND

LOOKING LIKELY (have built strong profiles and only need to avoid implosion down the stretch...example Rutgers in 2023)

• UCLA
• ILLINOIS
• MISSISSIPPI
• MISSISSIPPI STATE
• CLEMSON
• LOUISVILLE
• MICHIGAN
• MISSOURI
• CREIGHTON

SAFE FOR NOW/ABOVE THE BUBBLE (would not catagorize them as bubble but that can change with losses down the stretch)

• BAYLOR
• GONZAGA
• CONNECTICUT
• UTAH STATE
• OREGON

So that takes care of 27 of the 37 at larges that all are at least above the bubble...10 spots and there are 33 schools competing for them

BUBBLICIOUS (in order from safest to last in)

• OKLAHOMA
• WEST VIRGINIA
• NEBRASKA
• SAN DIEGO STATE
• TEXAS
• OHIO STATE
• VANDERBILT
• GEORGIA
• ARKANSAS
• WAKE FOREST

WRONG SIDE OF BUBBLE

• VCU
• XAVIER
• NORTH CAROLINA
• PITTSBURGH
• BYU
• DAYTON
• BOISE STATE
• ARIZONA STATE
• CENTRAL FLORIDA
• KANSAS STATE
• USC
• SMU
• UC IRVINE
• CINCINNATI
• NORTHWESTERN
• INDIANA
• SAN FRANCISCO
• SANTA CLARA
• VILLANOVA
• TCU
• COLORADO STATE
• NORTH TEXAS
• RUTGERS

Multiple Bid League

SEC: 14!
Big 10: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 4
Big East: 4
MWC: 3
WCC: 2


I will take your questions and highlight specific schools as we go through the week, Just wanted to get this out there. Putting 14 out of 16 SEC schools seems over the top and outrageous but remember it is not a prediction. Just a current snapshot in time. SEC schools still have 8 games to play. It almost guaranteed one or two schools will play themselves out of the field....GEORGIA on my mind and let us see if Calipari can hold it together at ARKANSAS and give them that needed push

I will get into some specifics about the A10 at large situation tomorrow and DRAKE'S at large situation

While the bubble seems weak as it did last year...its weak until it isnt and we found that out last year. ALOT of games to be played. I cannot repeat myself enough.

Drake has already had a rough week. IYKYK

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Drake has already had a rough week. IYKYK

Drake should not be penalized for close games at this point. They are clearly going to get everyone’s best. That’s what happens when you are 22-2. They are getting disrespected everywhere in my view - bracket projections, rankings (barely any votes), etc.

Winning consistently on the road is hard. Very few teams would only have 2 losses with their schedule. Winning on the road is hard no matter who you play and they beat 2 middle of the pack SEC and B12 teams. 11 seed would be ridiculous with 2 losses if they were to win out.

 

[bac2therac]

Sadly that seems like an overly optimistic picture of Rutgers At Large position.

At 12-12 are we really even positioned to finish ahead of the 5 loss teams like George Mason? I know we played a tougher schedule but 7 extra losses is a crap load.

Rutgers is only on this list mainly for shit and giggles...they are at the lowest end of any analysis because they ae .500 overall but they have 3 wins vs teams projected in the field

If RU beat Kennesaw and Princeton, I would likely have RU somewhere in the last 4 out currently and needing to win the 4 softies and add one big road win but in this scenario even 19-12 would be quite bubblicious

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Rutgers is only on this list mainly for shit and giggles...they are at the lowest end of any analysis because they ae .500 overall but they have 3 wins vs teams projected in the field

If RU beat Kennesaw and Princeton, I would likely have RU somewhere in the last 4 out currently and needing to win the 4 softies and add one big road win but in this scenario even 19-12 would be quite bubblicious

Yeah that sounds right. Because of those 2 losses I was thinking we’d have to be behind the pile of George Mason and Bradley types too and those teams really don’t have a chance. We didn’t beat any mid-majors away from home. Went 0-2 and those are 2 of our 12 losses.

 

[Knight Owl]

DrakeDrake should not be penalized for close games at this point. They are clearly going to get everyone’s best. That’s what happens when you are 22-2. They are getting disrespected everywhere in my view - bracket projections, rankings (barely any votes), etc.

Winning consistently on the road is hard. Very few teams would only have 2 losses with their schedule. Winning on the road is hard no matter who you play and they beat 2 middle of the pack SEC and B12 teams. 11 seed would be ridiculous with 2 losses if they were to win out.

 

[bac2therac]

Drake should not be penalized for close games at this point. They are clearly going to get everyone’s best. That’s what happens when you are 22-2. They are getting disrespected everywhere in my view - bracket projections, rankings (barely any votes), etc.

Winning consistently on the road is hard. Very few teams would only have 2 losses with their schedule. Winning on the road is hard no matter who you play and they beat 2 middle of the pack SEC and B12 teams. 11 seed would be ridiculous with 2 losses if they were to win out.

I think DRAKE at 20-2 has an excelllent shot as an at large. I think they could sustain one regular season loss and a loss in the conference tourney somewhere...finishing the season at 5-1 to put them at 25-3 heading into MVC play. They have 3 Q2 games, left 2 on the road at Illinois State and Northern Iowa and home to Bradley....annexing 2 more Q2 wins would boost their currrent 3-1 mark in Q1/2. Remember they are 2-0 in Q1 with a win over projected in the field but bubble Vandy on a neutral site and an inconsistent but solid Kansas State on the road. Their non conference sos is poor at 234 but no one can say they didnt prove themselves against power 5 schools. These are wins that the committee takes notice off and will offset just that one Q3 loss to Murray State. A healthy 9-1 in Q3 puts them at 12-2 in Q1/2/3. To me its all systems go for them. The NET overall does suck at 57 but WAB is 40 and SOR at 35 is strong enough.

I think early bracketology fell in love with the power conference schools early but now they are beat themselves up so a dynamic is playing out where schools like DRAKE, UC IRVINE, SANTA CLARA, SAN FRANSISCO, VCU are significantly closing the gap

 

[bac2therac]

I agree with most of your groups for the bracket. I would probably move Clemson and UCLA to "Mortal Locks". Both teams have very strong resumes in Quad 1+2, especially Clemson with their win against Duke.

Great analysis!

I think they are very close. I tend to be conservative. UCLA moreso than Clemson...with the Tigers the issue is the potential landmines in the ACC where alot of bad schools reside.

 

[RAC93]

I think DRAKE at 20-2 has an excelllent shot as an at large. I think they could sustain one regular season loss and a loss in the conference tourney somewhere...finishing the season at 5-1 to put them at 25-3 heading into MVC play. They have 3 Q2 games, left 2 on the road at Illinois State and Northern Iowa and home to Bradley....annexing 2 more Q2 wins would boost their currrent 3-1 mark in Q1/2. Remember they are 2-0 in Q1 with a win over projected in the field but bubble Vandy on a neutral site and an inconsistent but solid Kansas State on the road. Their non conference sos is poor at 234 but no one can say they didnt prove themselves against power 5 schools. These are wins that the committee takes notice off and will offset just that one Q3 loss to Murray State. A healthy 9-1 in Q3 puts them at 12-2 in Q1/2/3. To me its all systems go for them. The NET overall does suck at 57 but WAB is 40 and SOR at 35 is strong enough.

I think early bracketology fell in love with the power conference schools early but now they are beat themselves up so a dynamic is playing out where schools like DRAKE, UC IRVINE, SANTA CLARA, SAN FRANSISCO, VCU are significantly closing the gap

Can the Big West get 2 teams in? Meaning if UCSD wins conference championship game, could UC Irvine get an at large bid?

 

[bac2therac]

Great early analysis as usual. As of now , think Georgia and Arkansas can be bumped out of the last 10 and replaced by VCU and BYU. That takes SEC down to 12 teams , which in most years is a lot but not this year. Georgia and Arkansas and Oklahoma will play themselves out in my opinion. The SEC is unforgiving and a 5 game losing streak is on the cards for those teams. Dayton is killing themselves as they had the best out of conference wins but cannot take care of business. San Francisco will be the other bubble that seems above the rest right now. Xavier as well.

Yeah those SEC schools are accruing losses in big numbers. I do think 7-11 SEC marks will not preclude a school from being selected if the big wins are there without any bad losses. SEC did a good job with that. Even Oregon can sustain a 8-12 Big 10 mark and still get in. Their Vegas performance was outrageous. I agree with you. The mid major profiles are starting to close in on the big boys. Still alot of time to go.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I think DRAKE at 20-2 has an excelllent shot as an at large. I think they could sustain one regular season loss and a loss in the conference tourney somewhere...finishing the season at 5-1 to put them at 25-3 heading into MVC play. They have 3 Q2 games, left 2 on the road at Illinois State and Northern Iowa and home to Bradley....annexing 2 more Q2 wins would boost their currrent 3-1 mark in Q1/2. Remember they are 2-0 in Q1 with a win over projected in the field but bubble Vandy on a neutral site and an inconsistent but solid Kansas State on the road. Their non conference sos is poor at 234 but no one can say they didnt prove themselves against power 5 schools. These are wins that the committee takes notice off and will offset just that one Q3 loss to Murray State. A healthy 9-1 in Q3 puts them at 12-2 in Q1/2/3. To me its all systems go for them. The NET overall does suck at 57 but WAB is 40 and SOR at 35 is strong enough.

I think early bracketology fell in love with the power conference schools early but now they are beat themselves up so a dynamic is playing out where schools like DRAKE, UC IRVINE, SANTA CLARA, SAN FRANSISCO, VCU are significantly closing the gap

VCU doesn’t impress me in the same way. 5 losses is a lot more than 2. They’ve played 12 Q4 games and have the ugly loss to SHU.

 

[toby83]

 

[toby83]

 

[Degaz-RU]

Serious question - Is this year's SEC the best basketball conference EVER from top to bottom? They not only have elite teams, but they have strong teams all the way down to #14.

It's quite ridiculous, really, to think that just ten years ago, the SEC was basically just Kentucky and a bunch of mid teams.

 

[bac2therac]

Can the Big West get 2 teams in? Meaning if UCSD wins conference championship game, could UC Irvine get an at large bid?

I mean for this to happen, they cannot have bid stealers from MVC or A10 or WCC or AAC. I do think UC IRVINE is up against it and UC SAN DIEGO as well. I have seen brackets with Irivine as the Big West rep and San Diego in the last 4 in. Certainly they offer an alternative to taking a bloated power conference school. A 14th from a 16 school league vs a mid major is a tough call.....obviously they would salivate at Arkansas in the field with Calpari in the first 4 but precedent has been set for smaller schools to eek in and I know Indiana State didnt last year and the 3rd team out.. ISU lost to Drake 2x and didnt have a win over a team in the field and had 6 losses so a school like DRAKE in better shape.

as for the california schools, UC IRVINE took a tumble in the NET to 62. Their SOR is 54 and WAB is 49. These are marginals numbers. They really didnt play that challenging OOC schedule rated at 211, lost to Oregon State in Q1 and their best win besides the split with San Diego was the win over Northern Iowa. Just 4-2 in Q1/2 and they will not add another one to likely the Big West tourney. 4 losses including 2 in Q3 and likely just one to many. The loss to Duquense a bridge too far for me. They can boost their fortunes by running the table the rest of the way to go to 27-4 and if they lose to San Diego in the BW finals they would sit at 29-5. I just think there will be better alternatives.

UC SAN DIEGO at NET 49 and 18-4 actually has the better profile simply because they have a road win at Utah State but I bet you they wish they also beat San Diego State seeing they are just 2-2 in Q1/2 games and they have 2 Q3 losses...again one too many..at Riveside which is close to a Q2 loss but the bad one home to Seattle and its close to slipping to a Q4 loss. The SOR/WAB are 59/52. Just not enough here. Again will need to run the table. The Northridge game on the road is their only Q1/2 opportunity

 

[bac2therac]

Serious question - Is this year's SEC the best basketball conference EVER from top to bottom? They not only have elite teams, but they have strong teams all the way down to #14.

It's quite ridiculous, really, to think that just ten years ago, the SEC was basically just Kentucky and a bunch of mid teams.

maybe but there is a bit of smoke and mirrors at the back of the pack...those non conference sos on Georgia, Vandy, and Texas are not hot at all...especially Vandy at 330 but when you can no longer get a bad loss in conference because everyone is in the top 100 is a big asset. Thats why have multiple Q3 or 4 losses for bubble schools will stick out more so this season

Im still having trouble processing Texas and Oklahoma in this league

 

[BigEastPhil]

Bac is the best and I hope he gets the same recognition that he did last year as a great bracketologist !

14 bids for the SEC is insane !

I remember when the Big East about 15 years ago had 11-12 teams and Syracuse and Marquette played in the 2nd round. Lol.

Ironic thing about SEC was its conference for basketball was not good several years ago

Thru financial commitment and thru hiring of good coaches - SEC has become a behometh!

Is it fair to say that the SEC is now a basketball conference ? 😂

 

[bac2therac]

VCU doesn’t impress me in the same way. 5 losses is a lot more than 2. They’ve played 12 Q4 games and have the ugly loss to SHU.

No two ways about it that is a HORRIFIC loss and its stunning their NET is decent at 37. Might be closer to low 30s if they didnt lose that game and probably in most brackets right now. Two things are work here with VCU....remember the A10 is the 7th rated conference and does have a history of sending an at large. 0-1 in Q1, a loss at New Mexico, their non conference sos at 291 is terrible but they couldnt have known SHU would be this bad. They have 3 Q2 opportunities left (Dayton borderline and at 76 could become a Q1 road win). They split with Nevada/Colorado State in that same tourney but both of those schools have slipped a couple of pegs. SOR/WAB at 53/57 isnt good. Just being 7-4 in Q1/2/3 game thus far isnt good. 11 of their wins are in Q4 and they have a loss there. Compare to DRAKE who is 12-2 in Q1/2/3. I think they need a run the table situation to get them to 7 Q1/2 wins and 25-5 overall.

 

[bac2therac]

Bac is the best and I hope he gets the same recognition that he did last year as a great bracketologist !

14 bids for the SEC is insane !

I remember when the Big East about 15 years ago had 11-12 teams and Syracuse and Marquette played in the 2nd round. Lol.

Ironic thing about SEC was its conference for basketball was not good several years ago

Thru financial commitment and thru hiring of good coaches - SEC has become a behometh!

Is it fair to say that the SEC is now a basketball conference ? 😂

it all comes down to accurately predicting seeding and sometimes you need some luck to help out the skill

I believe this weekend the NCAA will be releasing their top 16 schools so it will be an indictor of how they are judging the SEC and also the Big 10 who has a lot of solid schools but no powerhouse in the running for a one seed.

 

[bac2therac]

I had NORTH CAROLINA as my third team out but that did not include last nights loss to Clemson. Huge huge missed opportunity for the Tar Heels. And the game wasnt even close and that is what is concerning. Some similarities to a few years ago where they had a terrible Q1 mark but knocked off Duke at the end of the year to get themselves in. The difference I think is that year they had more to pull from in Q3. This year they are 1-10 in Q1, 5-0 in Q2, and 3-1 in Q3.. Thats 9-11 in Q1/2/3 which is sketchy. They played a rugged ooc schedule rated 3rd...9th overall but only scored a win over UCLA with the next best being fading Dayton. Quad 2 does show wins over bubble outs SMU and Pitt but their best road win is just Notre Dame. The one point home loss to Stanford isnt terrible and it could move back to Q2 giving them a clean profile. Still when compared to SEC and Big 10 bubbles and perhaps to the 3 other ACC bubbles, there is no compelling reason on their resume to give them a bid. They have a home game with Duke to end the season and that is not a must win but not sure that moves the needle enough unless the Tar Heels take care of business in their Q2 game at Florida State and avoid landmines with Q3 games against ACC drek like Syracuse, NC State and Va Tech. For now I would slide them back behind Pitt and BYU in the pecking order.

 

[bac2therac]

I really really hate SMU's profile currently and I am going to have to try and shake off my bias about it and think like the committee. I have seen the committee be favorably in the past to shit ACC schools that do not have many quality wins of note. Its a bit akin to Colorado's profile last year in the Pac 12 when they did not have much to go on except a breadth of Quad 3 wins. SMU with a solid net of 40 but a woeful 0-4 in Q1. While Q2 is 4-1, the wins are pathetic....LSU, Washington State, at UVA, at NC State...that should not put you in the field. The Mustangs do not have one win vs a projected tourney school and have only played 3 schools even projected in the field. They lost to UNC and awful Butler counting as a Q2 loss. Their sos is 259. But the committee loves when schools load up in Q3 and SMU has done that while suffering no loss outside of Q2. 9-0 in Q3 and that puts them 13-5 in Q1/2/3 despite not beating one damn good school. One would think they are still in the AAC and not the ACC. Well if their first half ACC slate was weak, its about to get a whole lot tougher. Mustangs finish with 4 Quad 2 road games vs non contenders and have 2 Q2 home games vs bubbles Pitt and Wake plus a Q1 home game vs Clemson. Big time opportunities to stack wins here.

 

[bac2therac]

GEORGIA at 34 in the NET and 16-8 overall has some issues. For one they are turning out to be somewhat of a fraud based on early season success and once their schedule got tougher they have dropped 5 of 7. With 7 games left to play, 2 of their 4 conferences wins were to bottom feeders South Carolina and LSU. Just 2-8 in Q1 and 3-0 in Q2 but only 3-0 in Q3 as they are just 8-8 in Q1/2/3. 8 wins in Q4 reflect their poor ooc schedule of 232. Their one ace in the hole was the feather in the cap win over St Johns on a neutral site that is looking better and better each day. Beyond that though there is just a win over Kentucky and a win over Oklahoma. Their road mark is poor at 1-5..the best was over a bad Ga Tech. The schedule is not easy for them. They likely need 3 or 4 of these down the stretch: at A&M, Mizzou, at Aub, Fla, at Tex, at SC, Vandy.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

No two ways about it that is a HORRIFIC loss and its stunning their NET is decent at 37. Might be closer to low 30s if they didnt lose that game and probably in most brackets right now. Two things are work here with VCU....remember the A10 is the 7th rated conference and does have a history of sending an at large. 0-1 in Q1, a loss at New Mexico, their non conference sos at 291 is terrible but they couldnt have known SHU would be this bad. They have 3 Q2 opportunities left (Dayton borderline and at 76 could become a Q1 road win). They split with Nevada/Colorado State in that same tourney but both of those schools have slipped a couple of pegs. SOR/WAB at 53/57 isnt good. Just being 7-4 in Q1/2/3 game thus far isnt good. 11 of their wins are in Q4 and they have a loss there. Compare to DRAKE who is 12-2 in Q1/2/3. I think they need a run the table situation to get them to 7 Q1/2 wins and 25-5 overall.

I think a strong finish from Dayton might also be needed. The A-10 is a decent mid-major conference but VCU didn’t draw the toughest schedule. They only play George Mason once and the game is at home. The bottom of that conference is piss poor.

 

[NJHoops17]

I think they are very close. I tend to be conservative. UCLA moreso than Clemson...with the Tigers the issue is the potential landmines in the ACC where alot of bad schools reside.

Yeah that’s true I think Clemson has like 3 Quad 3 games left. I think even if they win only two of those and and just 1 of the other 3 games they would end up as an 8 seed

 

[bac2therac]

I think a strong finish from Dayton might also be needed. The A-10 is a decent mid-major conference but VCU didn’t draw the toughest schedule. They only play George Mason once and the game is at home. The bottom of that conference is piss poor.

DAYTON is likely in a win out situation of sweeping their last 7...only 1 Q1 game at VCU. Losing to VCU last week was a big mistake, needed that one. There is only one Q2 game in there at URI. . I know the OOC wins over Marquette and UConn are super but lets remember to judge the UConn win on the Huskies being in the 7-9 range seeding wise rather than what it was the past 2 seasons. There is a bad Q3 loss at UMass and while the loss at GW is Q2 for now, it was by 20 points and they also lost at St Bonnies by 22. 2-2 in Q1. 4-7 in Q2. 9-8 in Q1/2/3. Credit them for scheduling tough non conference 60 as opposed to VCU. The NET bad at 76 and the SOR/WAB suck too at 67/77.

 

[bac2therac]

Yeah that’s true I think Clemson has like 3 Quad 3 games left. I think even if they win only two of those and and just 1 of the other 3 games they would end up as an 8 seed

Not much to worry about for CLEMSON. That Duke win really solidified their resume to go along with that Kentucky win. Their only issue is despite the gaudy 20-5 mark, 27 NET and 9-5 in Q1/2/3, and 15-6 in Q1/2/3, they only have 3 wins vs the field so yes that Duke win and also turning back bubble UNC last night shored things up. They have one bad loss at home to Ga Tech and have 4 road trips to go so need to not blemish their resume too much.

 

[goru7]

Yeah those SEC schools are accruing losses in big numbers. I do think 7-11 SEC marks will not preclude a school from being selected if the big wins are there without any bad losses. SEC did a good job with that. Even Oregon can sustain a 8-12 Big 10 mark and still get in. Their Vegas performance was outrageous. I agree with you. The mid major profiles are starting to close in on the big boys. Still alot of time to go.

Definitely will have 7-11 SEC teams in the tourney. Will there be 6-12 teams ? The fact that the polls , the NET , Kenpom , etc have the SEC with 3/4 of the top 5 teams is something that hasn’t ever happened even with the great ACC back in the 90’s and early 2000’s. There might be 10 SEC teams with top 4 seeds which would be unprecedented. That is why 12,13 or 14 teams getting in is not out of the question. The committee will justify a 13/14 loss team saying it played in the SEC.

Interesting but Rutgers being in any discussion has to be because of the # of Quad 1,games we have played. Second , in the entire country to Auburn . 4-10 is not good and would look a hell of a lot better with Alabama and Texas A& M wins , and both games were right there for the taking.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Definitely will have 7-11 SEC teams in the tourney. Will there be 6-12 teams ? The fact that the polls , the NET , Kenpom , etc have the SEC with 3/4 of the top 5 teams is something that hasn’t ever happened even with the great ACC back in the 90’s and early 2000’s. There might be 10 SEC teams with top 4 seeds which would be unprecedented. That is why 12,13 or 14 teams getting in is not out of the question. The committee will justify a 13/14 loss team saying it played in the SEC.

Interesting but Rutgers being in any discussion has to be because of the # of Quad 1,games we have played. Second , in the entire country to Auburn . 4-10 is not good and would look a hell of a lot better with Alabama and Texas A& M wins , and both games were right there for the taking.

We’re not in any conversation. BAC said he just put us on there at the bottom for perspective. Aside from being 12-12, the 4 Q1 wins we have aren’t even that great from a resume perspective. NW is not making the tournament. Nebraska is a bubble team. Really - we have a pair of nice home wins over solid, but far from elite, tournament teams. That’s not getting you into the field. Honestly - if we played a second crossover game against NW instead of Purdue we’d arguably have -0- At Large chance even with winning out.

 

[goru7]

We’re not in any conversation. BAC said he just put us on there at the bottom for perspective. Aside from being 12-12, the 4 Q1 wins we have aren’t even that great from a resume perspective. NW is not making the tournament. Nebraska is a bubble team. Really - we have a pair of nice home wins over solid, but far from elite, tournament teams. That’s not getting you into the field. Honestly - if we played a second crossover game against NW instead of Purdue we’d arguably have -0- At Large chance even with winning out.

Stop it. My post mentioned the Alabama and Texas A&M games that were right there to be won. At 14-10 with those 2 wins we would be right in the discussion with some of the best wins in the country. We lost essentially in last 2 minutes of each game. Not going to rehash why.
But your negative Rutgers slant when you cannot see how negative it is . You cannot even appreciate beating a 10-1 home record Northwestern team nor an undefeated 11-0 home Nebraska team. Get a grip man. Everything is not a negative !!!!

 

[bac2therac]

Definitely will have 7-11 SEC teams in the tourney. Will there be 6-12 teams ? The fact that the polls , the NET , Kenpom , etc have the SEC with 3/4 of the top 5 teams is something that hasn’t ever happened even with the great ACC back in the 90’s and early 2000’s. There might be 10 SEC teams with top 4 seeds which would be unprecedented. That is why 12,13 or 14 teams getting in is not out of the question. The committee will justify a 13/14 loss team saying it played in the SEC.

Interesting but Rutgers being in any discussion has to be because of the # of Quad 1,games we have played. Second , in the entire country to Auburn . 4-10 is not good and would look a hell of a lot better with Alabama and Texas A& M wins , and both games were right there for the taking.

I would say no..Oregon could sneak in 7-13