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Bac - what if…

There’s a world where we get Nebraska in the 7-10 game and Northwestern as the two seed. Wouldn’t hate that
 
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run the table for regular season.....at 18-13 nope

while 5-9 in Q1 and 4-2 in Q2 puts us at a decent 9-12 in Q1/2 with 6 wins vs teams in field: Wisconsin 2x, Nebby 2x, SHU, NW, our Q1/2/3 record would just be 11-13 and being below 500 with that many losses is a no go...if we had beaten Maryland...that one game difference would have made a lot as we would be 10-12 and 12-13, a little more palpable. Plus even with those 6 win vs teams in the field, its lacking the marquee win as Wisconsin has fallen off. If you compare that to Seton Hall and Providence showing wins over UConn/Marq and Creig/Marq that falls short. Our NET and SOR will still languish no better than 70 tops for the net unless we won the road games by 20. Plus given a loss in the Big 10 tourney, that is 14 losses, its very very hard to get to the NCAA tourney with that many losses unless you have multiple high level wins or a strong sos. The only school this year with a shot at dancing with that many losses is Villanova.

of course if you man run the table and win the Big 10 tourney, we are probably looking at a 10 seed.
Bac, couple things, I think the question really is IF we win our last 3 and are 18-13 how many BIG tourney games do we need to win? Let’s say we go 2-1 and finish 20-14. I personally think that’s enough for bubble talk. Plus isn’t it more than 6 teams in the tourney? In that case we would have finished the season 10-4 since Williams played.
 
I’m not looking at it this way - but a variation.

The goal is to try and do enough to secure that 10 seed spot and make a run for the auto bid. We have a flawed roster, but the elite D gives us at least long shot potential to go on a run for that auto bid if we could get hot from the floor for a few games.

If we win the next one, discussion about possible tie breakers for BIg tourney seeding can start.
It's a long shot but we definitely have a chance. Like you said, if we bring our elite D, that should keep us in games. If the offense has a hot few games, you never know...

Maybe Simpson finally goes on a multi game stretch of good offense like end of last season? What if the Gavin breakout finally happens? Hyatt can get hot occasionally. Cliff can look dominate at times. What if JWill was just banged up for a few games after that play he hurt himself and it wasn't teams "figuring him out"?

Maybe we get lucky and a top seed or two gets upset and we catch a break in the bracket

Depending on how we look these last few games I'm considering making a trip to the B1G tournament
 
I’m not looking at it this way - but a variation.

The goal is to try and do enough to secure that 10 seed spot and make a run for the auto bid. We have a flawed roster, but the elite D gives us at least long shot potential to go on a run for that auto bid if we could get hot from the floor for a few games.

If we win the next one, discussion about possible tie breakers for BIg tourney seeding can start.

Isn't it the opposite that we poorly set up to make a run?

Havent some been saying part of the reason for beating Michigan was the team looking rested after being tired at UMD?

If that's the case, then winning 3 back to back games seems it would hit us exponentially. Especially if expending so much energy on defense.
 
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Isn't it the opposite that we poorly set up to make a run?

Havent some been saying part of the reason for beating Michigan was the team looking rested after being tired at UMD?

If that's the case, then winning 3 back to back games seems it would hit us exponentially. Especially if expending so much energy on defense.
I've considered this as a problem. @Greene Rice FIG would be the champion of this thought
 
Bac, couple things, I think the question really is IF we win our last 3 and are 18-13 how many BIG tourney games do we need to win? Let’s say we go 2-1 and finish 20-14. I personally think that’s enough for bubble talk. Plus isn’t it more than 6 teams in the tourney? In that case we would have finished the season 10-4 since Williams played.
too many losses and there are better options...like I have been saying...the trend is looking like the field is basically selected before conference tournaments based on the past few years

committee is not looking at schools making a resume in a week
 
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too many losses and there are better options...like I have been saying...the trend is looking like the field is basically selected before conference tournaments based on the past few years

committee is not looking at schools making a resume in a week
I agree that it doesn't appear the committee cares about the conference tournaments, but if they are setting the field and not considering tournament performance (outside champion) then they should publicly say so and make it not part of the criteria
 
too many losses and there are better options...like I have been saying...the trend is looking like the field is basically selected before conference tournaments based on the past few years

committee is not looking at schools making a resume in a week
I know you’re right about this. But it’s weird that the committee all but ignores games that are played. Rhetorical question, but on the Team Sheets, do they have pre-conference tournament quad records and have the conference tournament games as a footnote or something?
 
I know you’re right about this. But it’s weird that the committee all but ignores games that are played. Rhetorical question, but on the Team Sheets, do they have pre-conference tournament quad records and have the conference tournament games as a footnote or something?
No

but there is the thing...the committee is meeting during the week...MOST of their analysis and discussion is going to be centered around the team sheet when those first day or two, yes the team sheet changes a bit each day but remember they already come into the week have done their homework on what schools are bringing to the table before conference tourney play

i dont think its totally ignored but remember one big win or two or lose does not have any greater impact than the 31 previous games....ie to me its important to win big games the week before the conference tourney..thats your chance. RU had their chances last year at home vs Northwestern and they played like ass.
 
more plainly

Rutgers is not on mine or any other bracketlogists last 16 schools out

I would put RU somewhere in the 18-20th team out range

What you are asking is a school not even on the radar to vault into the field in just 15 days times...would not seem a plausible scenerio
 
No doubt J Williams and to a lesser extent Cliff looked fresh vs Mcihigan

There is zero doubt j will was not the same after NW. not sure if the slipping was a clue, but definitely he sidnt have the same body control on his drives to the lane.

Before Cliff got any point or rebounds he had a zip in his step defending to bigh screens and slowing down McDaniel.

Call me crazy….i smell a run here.

I love the Nebraska matchup…Nebraska could get tight trying to nail down bid AND i can see the team having extra incentive shitting down Tominaga.
 
more plainly

Rutgers is not on mine or any other bracketlogists last 16 schools out

I would put RU somewhere in the 18-20th team out range

What you are asking is a school not even on the radar to vault into the field in just 15 days times...would not seem a plausible scenerio
I mean if we were to win six games in a row and lose in the final I think it’s plausible. The more implausible thing is that actually happening. Winning 6 in a row against B1G competition is a lot to ask even for good teams.
 
The autobid is more likely that an at-large at this point. They’re both really unlikely.
 
Does bac have a database or inventory of teams on the bubble gaining or losing players to injury?

this is GRF March meter
18 - get ready for NIT
19 - tune in to selection show
20 - research airfares and Waze Dayton, OH
21 - expect to play Thurs or Friday
 
I mean if we were to win six games in a row and lose in the final I think it’s plausible. The more implausible thing is that actually happening. Winning 6 in a row against B1G competition is a lot to ask even for good teams.
well we can say that about half the power conference schools right now
 
Does bac have a database or inventory of teams on the bubble gaining or losing players to injury?

this is GRF March meter
18 - get ready for NIT
19 - tune in to selection show
20 - research airfares and Waze Dayton, OH
21 - expect to play Thurs or Friday
more concerned about losses...14 than wins
 
Does bac have a database or inventory of teams on the bubble gaining or losing players to injury?

this is GRF March meter
18 - get ready for NIT
19 - tune in to selection show
20 - research airfares and Waze Dayton, OH
21 - expect to play Thurs or Friday
I feel extremely confident that even if we win out and make the B1G semifinals we will not get an at-large bid. <1% chance. Conference tourneys just don't move the needle, especially the B1G's played so close to Selection Sunday
 
I feel extremely confident that even if we win out and make the B1G semifinals we will not get an at-large bid. <1% chance. Conference tourneys just don't move the needle, especially the B1G's played so close to Selection Sunday
that seems to be the case
 
did you forget Purdue, Maryland, Minnesota

Rutgers just beat a team who lost 17 of 19 and we are debating NCAA bids
a run is coming....

In the Pike era there are ebbs and flows....we either are great for stretches or bad.

Take away any positives on offense as we played Michigan.....keep the positives on D. We reversed our brutal stetch on D
 
did they erase a win because of mag?
Rutgers is 5-3 with J Will with Maryland kicking our ass on our home court and a loss to a team on the road in Minnesota that has no shot as an at large but is still ahead of us in the pecking order

these are arguments grasping at straws everyone is making would have okay if RU was 16-12 not 15-13
 
Sit back, grab your beverage of choice....night owls brew that pot of coffee.

We are going on a run and we are getting an at large
 
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a run is coming....

In the Pike era there are ebbs and flows....we either are great for stretches or bad.

Take away any positives on offense as we played Michigan.....keep the positives on D. We reversed our brutal stetch on D
Pike in 6 prior years only had one run of life in the Big 10 tourney and has never advanced beyond the quarterfinals
 
BAC angry emotion coming....

win the last 3 we are positive WAB
There are 64 teams with positive WAB. To get into the top 50 you need to be at +0.7. +1.1 is 46th. If the field were selected by WAB getting to zero would not be good enough.
 
we have a better at large IMO
Realistically we need to win at least 5 in a row to even have a 50/50 shot at the at large right? I don't know. We get the autobid in 0.3% of Torvik's sims and get zero at larges. I'm not sure how good his sims are though.
 
Teamrankings agrees with FIG. 0.3% autobid but 0.8% at large. Probably more realistic than the 0.0% at Bart.
 
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