BACATOLOGY: 2/13 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS

[scarletnewyorker2006]

Today on As The Bubble Turns:

Boston College at Pittsburgh (87%) - The Eagles have shown the ability to take down ACC bubblers Clemson and Virginia Tech. Can they get another?

Reading this excerpt made me feel old. It’s mid-February and the ACC’s 1st place team is a bubble team. Growing up the ACC was the premier conference in the game, ascending past the Big East (and BC/Pitt was a Big East match-up).

I miss Lou Carnesecca.

 

[rubigtimenow]

yeah pretty much agree. In the case of 4-2, I could see us dropping to an 8, could be close there and we could straddle 9/10 at 3-3. I think winning a Big 10 game is important too because it gives you another Q1 win. I am not sure a Big 10 tourney run is best for our team anyhow and think Pike might know that.

Indiana is a notch above everyone right now in seeding. They would have to start losing a few to touch base with the rest. But its very close to between Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern and Rutgers right now. RU has less upside to move up than those other schools because of the weaker schedule BUT less risk of absorbing losses. I was very bullish with my Northwestern seeding. Most have them a 7 or even 8. I really think their profile deserves a 6 and is slightly better than RUs right now but of course that last game of the season could matter alot.

Then further down is Michigan State and Maryland but especially Sparty has a shot to move up a notch or two.

Going back to what was originally posted as a question and I’m adding in big ten tourney results. Just the 5-1 mark….
“5-1…..13-7/21-10…..first or second 6 seed …not quite 5”
If we go 5-1 we will clearly get the double bye. Win 1st game in the BTT and lose the second…. That equates to top 4 in big ten in regular season and conference tourney. I would be surprised if were anything but a 5.
Your thoughts?

 

[Booty Maximus]

It’s just weird how whole conference season means nothing for the most part. Ivy used to have it right.

The problem with conference record is it really doesn't add much (if any) value.

Teams with really good conference records (i.e. 12+ wins in the B1G) are typically going to get a bid anyway as they're probably good enough to have a decent non-con resume. So their conference record doesn't matter.

Teams with really bad conference records (i.e MN, UNL) are just bad teams that aren't getting in. So their conference record doesn't matter.

So it's really the bubble teams and when you think of all the factors the committee looks at....what value does comparing say....11-9 in a really weak ACC with a 7-11 in a very strong B12? Impossible to really even make that compare IMO. And so many more meaningful data points available.

 

[G- RUnit]

The problem with conference record is it really doesn't add much (if any) value.

Teams with really good conference records (i.e. 12+ wins in the B1G) are typically going to get a bid anyway as they're probably good enough to have a decent non-con resume. So their conference record doesn't matter.

Teams with really bad conference records (i.e MN, UNL) are just bad teams that aren't getting in. So their conference record doesn't matter.

So it's really the bubble teams and when you think of all the factors the committee looks at....what value does comparing say....11-9 in a really weak ACC with a 7-11 in a very strong B12? Impossible to really even make that compare IMO. And so many more meaningful data points available.

Don’t disagree with any of it all. But the lingering doubt remains that if you’re not good in your conference all season long perhaps you don’t deserve in. Just food for thought. The outrageously high metrics for 5th place in Big East UConn and yet one game ahead of Seton Hall for 6th. Puzzling.

 

[bac2therac]

Auburn up 33-16 already over Missouri so that will ease their worries if they can get this

Seeding implications for RU as I have Mizzou as a soft 6.

Illinois down 44-33 to PSU in first half...another soft 6

 

[kcg88]

New Mexico down 16 at home to Wyoming. Q4 loss territory although at this rate they'll lose by enough to boost Wyoming to Q3.

 

[bac2therac]

huge win by Wisconsin and things are looking good. Look how one game can change things. Michigan in a heap of trouble

Providence who I was skeptical of got a huge win over Creighton and now can work on their seed.

Auburn annihilated Missouri by 33. Kind of win that will give them breathing space and likely just need to avoid bad losses. Missouri though while all but in the field, this is the kind of loss to shatter their seeding

Ditto for Illinos who was dreaming of getting on that 5 line. PSU keeps their hopes alive with a sweep of the Illini. Lets see what they can do.

Rutgers horrific home loss to Nebby. Their NET is inflated so we shall see what this loss does to it. For where they fall on the seed line, at least to 8 but Ill see in the morning when I digest all the results.

Oklahoma not back from the dead yet even with the win over Kansas State because they still are only 14-13

Okie State falls to Kansas, no shame there.

Syracuse got their first quality win of the year by knocking off NC State...stuff like this hurts the Pack's seeding.

Wyoming is routing New Mexico at the Pit 45-29 right now, if it holds that would absolutely knock the Lobos out of the field as of this moment

Duke narrowly avoided a bad home loss to Notre Dame

Pitt easily dispatched BC to remain the AQ in the ACC

Utah State stays alive from a distance by knocking off Air Force

 

[bac2therac]

New Mexico loses and they will be out of my field in the morning

 

[bac2therac]

so just to update some things concerning Rutgers

Rutgers dropped from 21 to 28 in the NET, surprised it was not more and I think the RU NET has been somewhat inflated all year long.

With respect to the Nebraska loss, yes it was a bad loss. It Quad 3 at home. Its Rutgers 2nd Q3 loss adding to the earlier loss to Temple. Seton Hall is a Q2 home loss as they are at 66 but they've been slipping in the NET so watch out for the possibility of that becoming a Quad 3 loss. No way to spin it, while the loss does not put RU's status in the field in peril AT THIS TIME, it does have major implications down the line. If the season ended today, RU is easily in the field but it does not end today.

Rutgers is now only 9-11 vs Q1/2/3 and the far majority of at larges you want to be above .500 in that group so worried about that a little. Also worried are the 2-7 road mark. I know that Purdue and NW are road wins but if RU ends up 18-14/19-14, it when the warts like this and the non conference trash sos of 305 will be looked at. RU also has ZERO out of conference wins of note. Again these are all things that do not impact Rutgers, CURRENTLY, but with a poor finish these things will be issues.

Now the good....alot of people think that any school not just Rutgers annexing a bad loss means the resume is damaged and they immediately become a bubble team. The fact of the matter is that the committee evaluates the profile as BODY OF WORK. Say it with me BODY OF WORK. No one can take away the 5 wins Rutgers has against teams in the field.....including a SUPER win at Purdue and the win at Northwestern really growing in stature. Indiana, Michigan State and Maryland are all very solid wins as well. Personally I would like to annex the win at Wisconsin because it will take care of the road mark and give RU an impressive 6 wins vs teams in the field.

My concern going forward is the schedule...3 road games, 2 home. RU looked terrible last night. Pressure is on to win at Wisconsin because if they do not they head bac2therac at 16-11 facing a MUST win situation not only for conference seeding but for NCAA implications for both teams. I do not like the Michigan matchup at all given how poor the defense and toughness was last night. They will eat us alive inside and then out. I still think RU needs 3 wins total in regular season/B10 tourney to ASSURE themselves of a bid....19 the magic number

Rutgers COULD get in at 18-14 but they will be firmly on the bubble and the possibility that they added a third Q3, poor road mark. So some very good wins, metrics probably still in top 40 but everyone sweating things out.

As of today I have dropped Rutgers from a 7 seed down to a 8 seed sharing the same line with Providence, North Carolina State, and Michigan State

 

[bac2therac]

LAST FOUR BYES: NEVADA, MISSISSIPPI STATE, WISCONSIN, MEMPHIS
LAST FOUR IN: BOISE STATE, CLEMSON, KENTUCKY, NORTH CAROLINA

FIRST FOUR OUT: OREGON, USC, PENN STATE, TEXAS A&M
NEXT FOUR OUT: NEW MEXICO, SETON HALL, WAKE FOREST, ARIZONA STATE

 

[bac2therac]

also Rutgers swoon is significantly impacting Seton Hall's profile which was not strong enough to begin with. The Pirates struggling to beat Gtown caused them to fall in the NET to 66.

They need to win 3 of next 4...good luck

at UConn
Xavier
Villanova
at Providence

 

[dconifer]

My concern going forward is the schedule...3 road games, 2 home. RU looked terrible last night. Pressure is on to win at Wisconsin because if they do not they head bac2therac at 16-11 facing a MUST win situation not only for conference seeding but for NCAA implications for both teams. I do not like the Michigan matchup at all given how poor the defense and toughness was last night. They will eat us alive inside and then out. I still think RU needs 3 wins total in regular season/B10 tourney to ASSURE themselves of a bid....19 the magic number

Well-played!

 

[AZBlues]

Auburn annihilated Missouri by 33. Kind of win that will give them breathing space and likely just need to avoid bad losses. Missouri though while all but in the field, this is the kind of loss to shatter their seeding

Auburn playing well makes me a little nervous considering that we aren't playing well right now. Was Ace Bailey's number 2, and still listed in Dylan's mix... Hopefully we'll find a way to get back on track real soon..

 

[fluoxetine]

Auburn playing well makes me a little nervous considering that we aren't playing well right now. Was Ace Bailey's number 2, and still listed in Dylan's mix... Hopefully we'll find a way to get back on track real soon..

Who knows what these kids are thinking, but the core of our current team won’t even be here by the time they are playing. I wouldn’t think the ebbs and flows of this season would have that much impact but you never know.

 

[AZBlues]

Who knows what these kids are thinking, but the core of our current team won’t even be here by the time they are playing. I wouldn’t think the ebbs and flows of this season would have that much impact but you never know.

I understand, and I don't know what the kids are thinking either, but unfortunately I think a bad slump to end the season might give coaches of certain other teams a little more propaganda to use if/when they choose to try to poach our unsigned commits or lure our potential recruits. I'd prefer not to give them more ammo so I hope we can get back to playing well soon.

 

[bac2therac]

Va Tech trailing Q4 Georgia Tech late.....Hokies absolutely cannot afford another Q4 loss, as it is now they are at the fringes of the bubble, next 3 are Pitt, Miami, at Duke so I suppose they still have a shot.

 

[bac2therac]

Tennessee knocks off Alabama, that will not knock the Tide from a 1 seed though and for the Vols they reenter the picture for a 2 or 3.

Marquette knocks off Xavier and now becomes the AQ in the Big East and look to possibly move up to 3 line or highest 4. With Freemantle out their seeding on in the top 4 is in peril with UConn lurking with better metrics

 

[bac2therac]

Virginia avoids a hideous loss at Louisville 61-58 so they look to stay a 3

Clemson should get a much needed NET boost by beating Florida State by 40

Va Tech suffers their 2nd Q4 loss in 3 game falling to 214 Ga Tech and now are a huge longshot for a bid.

UMass Lowell wins

Furman loses and now Samford becomes the AQ from the Southern

 

[kcg88]

Florida got a win on the far reaches of the bubble but it cost them Colin Castleton who broke his hand. Can they go 4-1 down the stretch to get to 18 wins and maybe have a prayer? They're at Arkansas then host Kentucky then it gets easier although they have to face Vandy and Georgia both on the road.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

At 18-14 we would be 11-14 against real teams

 

[kcg88]

Kentucky's in good position to finally pick up a second Q1 win, at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs would fall to 5-9 in Q1/Q2, though no losses outside of that.

 

[kcg88]

At 18-14 we would be 11-14 against real teams

That describes most 18-14 teams.

 

[bac2therac]

SEC has two big bubble games in the 2nd half

both up double digits

Kentucky up at Missisisippi State
Arkansas up at Texas A&M

 

[bac2therac]

Florida got a win on the far reaches of the bubble but it cost them Colin Castleton who broke his hand. Can they go 4-1 down the stretch to get to 18 wins and maybe have a prayer? They're at Arkansas then host Kentucky then it gets easier although they have to face Vandy and Georgia both on the road.

I dont see it and all those other SEC schools have better overall resumes. Not sure if this loss to Kentucky bounces Mississippi State out of the field, might still hang around first four. Kenutcky helped big time, for those hold outs in the matrix they will have to put them back in.

 

[kcg88]

Bubble teams holding their breath as a safely-in-the-field Arkansas team leads Texas A&M at the half in College Station. Big big big Q1 chance for the Aggies.

Also keeping tabs on Boise State trailing early at Colorado State.

 

[bac2therac]

I have been the most bullish compared to others brackets about Northwestern putting them at 6 going into tonight....not sure why I am seeing them at 7 and 8. A win tonight would move them to a 5 for me. There are openings now that TCU is floundering and KSU also somewhat sputtering. What looked like maybe 6 schools in the top 16 is looking more like 4 and it could be 3 depending on Iowa State

ncaa reveal this weekend

 

[bac2therac]

how has the bracketmatrix not updated today??

 

[kcg88]

how has the bracketmatrix not updated today??

Maybe the guy in charge had a really nice Valentine's night last night?

 

[kcg88]

A&M storms out of the gate in the second half with a 12-4 run to pull back into it.

 

[bac2therac]

Northwestern is now a mortal lock and may be contending for a 5 seed now

 

[BigEastPhil]

Northwestern is now a mortal lock and may be contending for a 5 seed now

Appears so. Buie just said this team will be the 2nd NW team to make the dance. Lol. Good for them ! Easy team to root for !

 

[kcg88]

Arkansas was down 2 and just missed three straight free throws

 

[kcg88]

Welp Arkansas gave that one away. A&M gets a big Q1 win.

 

[bac2therac]

A&M wins...much needed for them. While they are not in the last 4 in, Arkansas is not safe IMO, that resume is thin..just wins over San Diego State, Missouri and the two other wins A&M and Kentucky are teams barely just in or out. Home games next vs Florida and Georgia and then road games at Tenn and Bama before finishing with Kentucky. I know the metrics are great but

 

[bac2therac]

uh oh Colorado State takes the lead with about 5 to go vs Boise

 

[kcg88]

Boise State hung on to win but bac's First Team Out went down as Oregon lost in OT at Washington. Only a Q2 loss but not good for them, obviously. Sunday at Washington State is a must win. They have the same issue as Rutgers where they're below .500 in the first three quadrants but unlike Rutgers they don't have important wins to offset that. They beat Arizona and a couple of bubble teams (Arizona State on the road, Nevada and USC at home).

 

[bac2therac]

Morning update

SEC bubble madness. I know project 8 SEC schools in the field. Bama still a one, Tennessee up to 3, Missouri sitting on the 7 line, Auburn straddling the 8/9 a couple steps above the bubble, not a lock but admittedly I am very conservative when it comes to locking schools in. Arkansas still hanging around the 10 line. Some may not think they are a bubble with their strong NET but with 3 other SEC bubbles around them, I think the Razorbacks are no sure thing. There are 3 hardcore bubble schools: Mississippi State, Kentucky and Texas A&M.

Texas A&M significantly improved their profile with their win at Arkansas and are just a game out of first in the SEC. While conference record does not matter. I am thinking the recent wins and the last was an important one in Q1 are going to overshadow the negative of those two awful Q4s. With the margins around the last 8 in so thin, this win is enough to push them above the first four games...still have to keep winning as their are other bubbles around them.

Kentucky's win at Mississippi State was huge for them to maintain their spot in the field. Not an overwhelming profile so they still stay in the last four in.

Mississippi State missed an opportunity to shore up their resume and stay ahead of both A&M and Kentucky in the pecking order. That 5-9 mark in Q1/2 is a huge concern, The problem for them going forward is just two shots at quality wins remain in the regular season...Texas A&M and at Missouri. Still they stay in the field for now.

As as I said margins are so close. Just some wins by schools around the bubble shift teams who did not even play. North Carolina who was the 4th team in yesterday gets bounced. Clemson 2nd team in gets bounced. USC who was 2nd team out vaults in without playing. How can this happen? Its because some schools may matchup well with stronger with certain groups of schools but you take a school or two out of that grouping and it was down to USC, Mississippi State, Clemson, and North Carolina. The two ACCs faired poorly.


LAST FOUR BYES: NEVADA, TEXAS A&M, WISCONSIN, MEMPHIS
LAST FOUR IN: USC, MISSISSIPPI STATE, BOISE STATE, KENTUCKY

FIRST FOUR OUT: NORTH CAROLINA, CLEMSON, PENN STATE, OREGON
NEXT FOUR OUT: SETON HALL, NEW MEXICO, WAKE FOREST, CHARLESTON

 

[Groz]

Morning update

SEC bubble madness. I know project 8 SEC schools in the field. Bama still a one, Tennessee up to 3, Missouri sitting on the 7 line, Auburn straddling the 8/9 a couple steps above the bubble, not a lock but admittedly I am very conservative when it comes to locking schools in. Arkansas still hanging around the 10 line. Some may not think they are a bubble with their strong NET but with 3 other SEC bubbles around them, I think the Razorbacks are no sure thing. There are 3 hardcore bubble schools: Mississippi State, Kentucky and Texas A&M.

Texas A&M significantly improved their profile with their win at Arkansas and are just a game out of first in the SEC. While conference record does not matter. I am thinking the recent wins and the last was an important one in Q1 are going to overshadow the negative of those two awful Q4s. With the margins around the last 8 in so thin, this win is enough to push them above the first four games...still have to keep winning as their are other bubbles around them.

Kentucky's win at Mississippi State was huge for them to maintain their spot in the field. Not an overwhelming profile so they still stay in the last four in.

Mississippi State missed an opportunity to shore up their resume and stay ahead of both A&M and Kentucky in the pecking order. That 5-9 mark in Q1/2 is a huge concern, The problem for them going forward is just two shots at quality wins remain in the regular season...Texas A&M and at Missouri. Still they stay in the field for now.

As as I said margins are so close. Just some wins by schools around the bubble shift teams who did not even play. North Carolina who was the 4th team in yesterday gets bounced. Clemson 2nd team in gets bounced. USC who was 2nd team out vaults in without playing. How can this happen? Its because some schools may matchup well with stronger with certain groups of schools but you take a school or two out of that grouping and it was down to USC, Mississippi State, Clemson, and North Carolina. The two ACCs faired poorly.


LAST FOUR BYES: NEVADA, TEXAS A&M, WISCONSIN, MEMPHIS
LAST FOUR IN: USC, MISSISSIPPI STATE, BOISE STATE, KENTUCKY

FIRST FOUR OUT: NORTH CAROLINA, CLEMSON, PENN STATE, OREGON
NEXT FOUR OUT: SETON HALL, NEW MEXICO, WAKE FOREST, CHARLESTON

You still continue to do an amazing job in your analysis Bac. Keep the reports coming.....

Best of Luck,
Groz

 

[bac2therac]

for those wondering, RU remains a 8 seed in my bracket. Would be matched up with NC State in the first round with Alabama waiting.

RU took a hit in the Q2 mark as Wake has now moved to Q3 by one spot. So RU is now just 3-2 in Q2 and 7-8 overall in Q1/2

 

[fatsam98]

for those wondering, RU remains a 8 seed in my bracket. Would be matched up with NC State in the first round with Alabama waiting.

RU took a hit in the Q2 mark as Wake has now moved to Q3 by one spot. So RU is now just 3-2 in Q2 and 7-8 overall in Q1/2

Would mean we'd be in Birmingham, wonderful.

Lunardi has us as an 8 today as well.