They've got a lot of coin flips to finish...the biggest favorite they'll be the rest of the way will be home against Rutgers, and that's obviously losable (even with how good they've been at home). They are sitting in a nice spot, but need to keep taking care of business.
BACATOLOGY: 2/19 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS****RUTGERS WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY OUT AS OF 2/22***
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Marquette has 101 points with five plus minutes left.
Mississippi State starting to get some seperation from Ole Miss up 11 now with just under 8 to go
Given what other Big East Teams are doing ? Friars are in 5th place in conference top 4 are comfortably in. Xavier has #1 strength of schedule. Are we going to start downplaying quad 1's now?
I’m not anticipating a collapse which is of course possible. But that’s the same with anybody. Right now easily in. Playing for seed.
its a fairly easy finish for them compared to what it could be...thats good and bad...none of those 4 they face are quality wins vs ncaa tourney teams....they have 4 but it would be better to have 5
Haven't seen much talk about it, but Coach Cal is really doing an underwhelming job of getting the most out of this much talent this season. I keep waiting for them to flip the switch, but struggling again against an average team tonight.
conference record does not matter....if Pc goes 2-2 there will be issues....10 wins in Q4, poor ooc schedule....and 2-2 will still leave them under 500 in Q123
Nova and SHU have better wins
RU OOC schedule looking very very good and if possible good losses to MSU, Wake and Princeton.
ive hit in by accident and dont like it...so i dont think i will switch....gen x going to do things their own way
cannot go 0-3 vs them, thats the issue...if only RU had that Mississippi St win right now
yeah i thought they were starting to put it together...the sec bottom teams can be tricky at home
Mississippi State knocks off Ole Miss 83-71 to solidfy their resume.
Ive had Ole Miss out all along so the bracketologists who fell in love with their early record will be forced to start taking them out.
LSU hangs on to beat Kentucky. I had just moved Kentucky up to the 5 line today too
New Mexico up 9 at Colorado State. Should the Lobos get this one, they will move out of the last 4 in and their might be 3 Big East schools in that last four in tomorrow.
Ive had Ole Miss out all along so the bracketologists who fell in love with their early record will be forced to start taking them out.
LSU hangs on to beat Kentucky. I had just moved Kentucky up to the 5 line today too
New Mexico up 9 at Colorado State. Should the Lobos get this one, they will move out of the last 4 in and their might be 3 Big East schools in that last four in tomorrow.
Hall has the UCONN win and a few bad losses. PC has Marquette and Wisconsin wins and no bad losses. Don't think there is a big difference there. Nova has good win over North Carolina and @ Creighton and Texas tech also some head scratching losses. Not a huge difference there either
All it takes is a few teams to not perform the way you expected when scheduled. Milwaukee and Sacred Heart were both supposed to be in the top half of their conference. Plus can't help that rivalry game Uri stinks.
Ok so for starters, the Dayton loss last night knocked them out of first in the A10, so Richmond is now in first and slotted as the AQ from the A10 as Dayton takes up an at large. That bumps one spot out of the at large pool for now. Also I am going to turn the last four byes into last 8 byes because its almost impossible to seperate this grouping which runs the 9/10 seeding line.
LAST EIGHT BYES (first safest): NORTHWESTERN, BOISE STATE, TEXAS, NEBRASKA, NEW MEXICO, MISSISSIPPI STATE, NEVADA, VIRGINIA
LAST FOUR IN: TEXAS A & M, PROVIDENCE, SETON HALL, BUTLER
FIRST FOUR OUT: UTAH, VILLANOVA, GONZAGA, WAKE FOREST
NEXT FOUR OUT: IOWA, VIRGINIA TECH, CINCINNATI, MISSISSIPPI
ON DECK: COLORADO, INDIANA STATE, KANSAS STATE, RUTGERS
Yes that is right....3 Big East schools in the FIRST FOUR games and Nova not looking far behind....could we have an all Big East FIRST FOUR?
The change alot the cut in line in just a week were dramatic and that's why bracketology in January and even in early February is meaningless.
LAST EIGHT BYES (first safest): NORTHWESTERN, BOISE STATE, TEXAS, NEBRASKA, NEW MEXICO, MISSISSIPPI STATE, NEVADA, VIRGINIA
LAST FOUR IN: TEXAS A & M, PROVIDENCE, SETON HALL, BUTLER
FIRST FOUR OUT: UTAH, VILLANOVA, GONZAGA, WAKE FOREST
NEXT FOUR OUT: IOWA, VIRGINIA TECH, CINCINNATI, MISSISSIPPI
ON DECK: COLORADO, INDIANA STATE, KANSAS STATE, RUTGERS
Yes that is right....3 Big East schools in the FIRST FOUR games and Nova not looking far behind....could we have an all Big East FIRST FOUR?
The change alot the cut in line in just a week were dramatic and that's why bracketology in January and even in early February is meaningless.
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I will note as time goes by I am less impressed with Texas and Virgina profiles. The key question is how to compare the Mountain West schools which have better metrics but not as good wins as Nebraska and Mississippi State. Those two have issues with road mark and non conference sos strength.
Wake Forest metrics are soaring now at 27 despite a rather pedestrian profile. Yet if they can beat Duke at home Saturday they will vault into the field over one of those bloated Big East schools.
Ditto for Villanova, if they win at Connecticut on Saturday they will be in the field on Sunday
A Rutgers win tonight at Purdue likely gets them onto the next 4 out spot in front of Iowa.
Wake Forest metrics are soaring now at 27 despite a rather pedestrian profile. Yet if they can beat Duke at home Saturday they will vault into the field over one of those bloated Big East schools.
Ditto for Villanova, if they win at Connecticut on Saturday they will be in the field on Sunday
A Rutgers win tonight at Purdue likely gets them onto the next 4 out spot in front of Iowa.
too bad, the big east gives every team with a pulse 4 automatic wins vs Georgetown/De Paul
You did this last year as well. Your schedule is your schedule, it doesn't matter WHY it's your schedule.
Yeah that was the previous coaching staff. Pretty sure that will change going forward. English is pretty much the complete opposite of Cooley in just about every way.
Big win for Providence last night on the road over Xavier. Have them ahead of Butler and Villanova as I see 5 teams from Big East in with UConn, Marquette , Creighton , Seton Hall and Providence in the last 4. I would seed Seton Hall at 10/11 but not in last 4. Butler and Villanova unless they beat one of the top 3 from here on out in the season or at Big East tournament are on the outside in my opinion
Can see Northwestern and Nebraska as 9 seeds or at worst 10 seeds unless they totally collapse.
I would put Wake Forest in over Butler and as the 5th ACC team to go along with UNC , Duke , Clemson and Virginia . Virginia really has been blown out with a number of bad losses , so their spot is not guaranteed. Has to be some punishment for losing that badly as it suggests you really are not a tournament worthy team.
Both NW and Nebraska at weird spot as personally rather roll device as a 10 seed than dreaded 8-9 game and then have to play 1 seed. Could either work their way to a 7?
If not might be better off where they are.
Wake still has games at home against Duke and Clemson. Tricky away game at Va Tech.
Don’t know what to make of ACC especially after last year where the league was far better than analytics suggested.
UVA looked great against Miami and horrific against Va Tech.
They still have Duke and UNC.
Pace aside, if they are a high seed wouldn’t mind playing them at all. The Wiscy of the ACC?
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Please pardon an elementary question: what do you mean by "first eight byes?" (You may have answered this above.)
Another question: as I understand it, the bottom four automatic qualifiers and the bottom four at large teams have to play in the "first round." Do the winners necessarily become the 16th seed in their bracket?
Thanks!
The byes are basically saying they are above the first four...i think Lunardi came up with term
The bottom 4 are 16 seeds and will play the 1 seeds
The last 4 in who play in the first four games will generally be 11 seeds but sometimes are 12 seeds
I think NU(if they even make it in) would prefer a 7/10 matchup due to some committee “rules”. A poster on the NU board copied some of the placement after seeding rules and geography must be considered for the placement of 7,8,9,10. Omaha is hosting a 7/10 matchup and according to how that poster did it NU would play in Omaha.
There is nothing that would lock Omaha into a 7/10 matchup...it just depends on what seeds end up there (1-4), and it would play out from there. If a 2 seed is there, then it would create 7/10 matchup.
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That's not how it works at all.
Geography is a consideration for the 1/2/3/4 seeds only. Those 16 teams will be allocated to the 8 first weekend sites in order of their seed (assigned to closest site geographically to the school), until each site is used twice.
Any seeds 5 and higher are at the whim of how the bracket is built.
A 7/10 game will be at the same site as a 2 seed. So if you think you'll be a 10 seed, look at where the projected 2 seeds will likely end up.
Why are the teams in the "first four" eleven seeds? I would think they would be the bottom seeds who don't deserve byes. Thanks for the explanation of "first byes!"
They are 33-36th ranked at large teams...they are not slotted as 16s because thats reserved for the conference representives from the lowest rated conferences
Because the the First 4 is made up of both the 4 worst teams in the field, and the last 4 at-large teams. The worst 4 teams in the field would obviously be 16 seeds. However, the last 4 at-large teams are better than other teams in the field that won their small conferences. So, the committee determines their true "strength", and sorts them as such (and that way, a 1 seed isn't penalized by playing a team like Texas A&M or Seton Hall, rather than playing truly one of the worst teams in the tournament like Southern or Sam Houston St).
Don't the worst"automatic qualifiers (that is, conference representatives) also have to play in the first four? That's what the wilkipedia entry seemed to say.
Just want to say that for me the competition to see who will get into the tournament is at least as much fun as the tournament games themselves, so I really like what you do in this thread.
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