yes...those 4 and the 4 lowest seeded at larges...two games each night in Dayton on Tuesday and Wednesday of the opening week of ncaa tourney
BACATOLOGY: 2/19 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS****RUTGERS WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY OUT AS OF 2/22***
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Running up the score to make NCAA seeding committee forget rout to UConn.
Rutgers hammered tonight by 28 will drop big time in the NET and will drop waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay out of any realistic contention for the NCAA....win the next 3 and then we shall revisit but not until they do that.
I’m guessing NET had us like 18/19 point underdogs, I can’t imagine we’ll drop much more than last time. But otherwise yea lol
Florida Atlantic knocks off SMU probably ending any realistic hope the Mustangs had for an at large
Is any B1G team outside of West Lafayette capable of a deep run in the Dance at this point?
Does the AAC get 3 bids if another conference team besides USF or FAU win the AAC tournament?
you asked this before...its likely a one bid league if FAU wins the tourney.
matchups...teams can get hot and go on a run...I think Illinois is capable but also very capable of being picked off by a 12 or 13 seed
Minnesota wins...now 7-8 in Q1/2
they are inching up probably around the 14-16th team out right now
they are inching up probably around the 14-16th team out right now
Grand Canyon falls at Tarleton State just the third loss of the year for the Lopes...probably cannot afford any other slipup before the WAC tourney.
Gonzaga taking care of business at Portland but will remain out of the field going into the weekend.
I think Gonzaga is the most intriguing team over the next few weeks…that finish of @San Fran, @St Mary’s, likely San Fran again in Vegas, then potentially StMary’s in Vegas (which would obviously be a loss for this to matter).
I’d think that a sweep of San Fran but 2 losses to St Mary’s isn’t enough. But St Mary’s and San Fran are both pretty underrated IMO, and going 3-1 over those 4 is a tall ask.
i mean alot of guys have them in today....i just dont think a win over at a 6/7 seed Kentucky is good enough. I want them to beat St Marys
Santa Clara may have an outside shot at getting third, they already beat the Zags
Yea, they badly need a win over St Mary’s for that resume…Kentucky and then what? Syracuse in Maui and @San Fran (assuming they’d have to have it if we’re seriously considering them) doesn’t do enough to offset all those games against the bottom of the WCC.
Which of the B1G teams that is currently out of the tourney would you say has best shot of making it as of today, Iowa or Minnesota? Certainly not RU at the moment.
If, and it’s a big IF, RU goes 5-0, obviously would depend on other bubble team results, what % chance would you give them of getting in just based off their resume? Near 100%? 50/50 at best?
Im not that optimistic. Even at 19-12, RU is just annexing two wins vs teams in field and while Wisky sits on the 4-5 line not sure its the feather in their cap type win they need. The only 3 games are home games vs middling schools.
Rutgers would certainly be called a bubble team at 19-12 i just think there will be better profiles from other schools. Our NET is so ridiculously bad right now. Not sure we can get into top 80. Not impossible to get a bid but unlikely. Like I said win the next 3 and then see we stack up
back2therac you are doing a great job with the updates on your bracket thoughts . Keep up the good work .
Fell asleep with less than 3 minutes to go...but they are good
Kind of win that could move them to to the 6 line with an outside shot at 5
So even if we SOMEHOW pull off 5 wins in a row, something we have not done in 33 years within conference play BTW, then it’s still unlikely. I thought if they were going to actually make it, they needed to not go 0-2 against Minny and Purdue as you lose your momentum. Obviously Minny would be the more winnable game. Momentum and narratives teams create never hurt a team’s chances to go along with the more important metrics and the wins. RU had a nice little thing going with JWill returning, 4-0 record, possible reverse Mag treatment from last season by committee,………that’s all died at this point.
Friday morning update...not many changes
Washington State win over Arizona puts them on the 6 side line for me
Rutgers lost to Purdue puts them beyond the last 16 teams out.
LAST EIGHT BYES (first safest): NORTHWESTERN, BOISE STATE, TEXAS, NEBRASKA, NEW MEXICO, MISSISSIPPI STATE, NEVADA, VIRGINIA
LAST FOUR IN: TEXAS A & M, PROVIDENCE, SETON HALL, BUTLER
FIRST FOUR OUT: UTAH, VILLANOVA, GONZAGA, WAKE FOREST
NEXT FOUR OUT: IOWA, VIRGINIA TECH, CINCINNATI, MISSISSIPPI
ON DECK: COLORADO, INDIANA STATE, KANSAS STATE, OREGON
Washington State win over Arizona puts them on the 6 side line for me
Rutgers lost to Purdue puts them beyond the last 16 teams out.
LAST EIGHT BYES (first safest): NORTHWESTERN, BOISE STATE, TEXAS, NEBRASKA, NEW MEXICO, MISSISSIPPI STATE, NEVADA, VIRGINIA
LAST FOUR IN: TEXAS A & M, PROVIDENCE, SETON HALL, BUTLER
FIRST FOUR OUT: UTAH, VILLANOVA, GONZAGA, WAKE FOREST
NEXT FOUR OUT: IOWA, VIRGINIA TECH, CINCINNATI, MISSISSIPPI
ON DECK: COLORADO, INDIANA STATE, KANSAS STATE, OREGON
I just think its not realistic to expect to beat both Wisky and Nebby at home after you lost all momentum at Minnesota while also winning all 3 at home. The Purdue type game can happen but we were soundly beaten by Minnesota and that was deflating.
Not realistic to expect 5 wins in a row when RU has never even one 5 B1G games in a row. Even if they pulled it off, I have a hard time seeing how they make it. Probably end up in some grouping of First 4 Out or Next Four Out. If they had beaten PSU, to go with finishing 5-0, or beat Minny then finish 5-0, then they’re in the tourney. I think at this point a realistic 3-2 finish with upside possibility of maybe 4-1. 4-1 and they’re in NIT, 3-2 and maybe they’re legit on bubble for NIT?, 2-3 finish and not even in NIT.
What? You actually find time to sleep🙂
Awesome job as always
I think if they take the next 2...and Maryland will not be easy at all, then pull off the upset at Nebraska, at 17-12 they are at least back in the discussion so we can see the numbers and work from there
yeah I do not think a 2-3 finish and 16-15 will cut it unless they win a first round game in the big 10 tourney and that actually might be in the bottom 4 games so it might not do much for the resume. I am completely honest I have no idea how the NIT will select this season since they are dropping the auto bid to regular season conference winners that do not win their conference tourneys. Are they going to completely make it a power 8 conference tourney or will some little guys get invited too
Rutgers is way out....the NET is 92. Cleaner profiles with better metrics like Oregon, Colorado, Wake, Ole Miss, Iowa exist. Other schools with way better wins like Nova, Butler, SHU, Providence remained entrenched above RU. Schools like James Madison, Drake/Ind State or Mc Neese/Grand Canyon if they do not win their conference tourneys exist that would be attractive candidates. Rutgers is behind both Iowa and even Minnesota right now and Minnesota currently has some red flags
Beating Maryland and Ohio State may be quad 2 for now but in reality they do not move any needles. they are mediocre at best nit schools.
It doesn’t make much sense to me to be the “12th team out” and then 2 hours later become so far out it’s not even worth counting the spots after losing on the road to one of the best teams in the country.
Also does the committee go through every single teams Quad 1 and 2 wins to see which teams are considered “mediocre” and which aren’t so they can discount them from the Q1 and Q2 record
Also does the committee go through every single teams Quad 1 and 2 wins to see which teams are considered “mediocre” and which aren’t so they can discount them from the Q1 and Q2 record
Because Rutgers is now just 14-12...2 games above .500 and teams with those records are not serious bubble schools
Rutgers is also now 8-12 in q1/2/3 games...thats a non starter
3-10 in Quad 1 is atrocious
SOR now down to 72
Rutgers wasnt bubbling under at 14-10 but two losses have evaporated any gains they made
Yes the committee goes through each win...not only are quads seperated into tiers but they also can recognize the value of a win vs Northwestern vs a win va Maryland
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An argument could be made it wasn’t worth counting the spots when we were “12th team out” to begin with. Even before Purdue.
just a way to give people an idea where RU fit in at the time but failure to beat either Minnesota or Purdue has removed RU at this time from any realistic bubble talk...again as I have said, win the next 3 and then they may be resurfacing on the soft underbelly of the bubble
