Okay let's get this thing started. Night owls come on in, grab your beverage of choice and some tacos and dive into bacatology. Early birds, see you in the morning. Bring coffee and donuts. Comments and questions are always welcome. Corrections are always helpful especially spelling. Tips are mandatory! See my amazon wishlist (wink)
There are 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from each conference). * denotes projected AQ. There are 36 at large bids. I am projecting 16 at large locks leaving 20 available spots in the field. I am projecting 41 schools competing for those 20 open spots. Locks are all the way up through the six seeds.
ONE SEEDS
TWO SEEDS
THREE SEEDS
FOUR SEEDS
FIVE SEEDS
SIX SEEDS
SEVEN SEEDS
(30) TCU 19-8: Horned Frogs are inching close as they took care of business at home vs Cincy over the weekend. The pair of wins over Houston and at Baylor are the shining lights on another clean type profiled with no losses outside Q2 (worse loss Texas). There are additional Q2 wins at home over NCAA projected Texas Tech and Oklahoma. 3-7 in Q1, 4-1 in Q2.Non conference sos of 321 with Arizona State as the best win might tamp their seeding ceiling somewhat. Baylor up next followed by tricky road swing at BYU/WVU before coming back home to take on Central Florida. Hard to imagine a scenario where they fall out of the field.
(27) COLORADO STATE 18-8: Rams have now dropped 3 of 4 and the lastest at UNLV at least raises some concern because of the bulky 6 man Mountain West race. Big question asked all year is will the Mountain West get 6? The Rams have the better combo of metrics and resume flesh than some other MWC bubbles that should make them okay. There are the necessary quality league wins over San Diego State, New Mexico, Utah State and Boise State but the biggest difference maker is the neutral site win over Creighton. Thats a top notch win that will keep giving right through Selection Sunday. 4-6 in Q1 and 8-7 in Q1/2 also includes a win over improving Colorado. There is a Q3 loss to Wyoming that will not matter much. Note the strong overall sos of 31 backed up by non conference sos of 85. Close out with Nevada/Wyoming at home followed by a trip to bottom feeding Air Force.
(13) BYU 19-8: Probably the one school most helped by inflated metrics in the NET accomplished by several 30 plus blowouts in Quad 4. The disconnect between their NET of 13 but Strength of Record of 31 plus their non conference SOS of 298 is certainly interesting to note. 4-6 in Q1 and 4-2 in Q2. Strongest of the bunch were the home wins over Iowa State and non conference over San Diego State Now the Cougars got an additional quality win over Baylor last week to give them 4 vs schools projected in the field. However they would follow it up with a road loss to Kansas State. While I am not saying the Cougars are in any real jeopardy, there is a brutal next 3 (at Kansas, TCU, at Iowa State) to navigate followed by the finale vs Oklahoma State who they already lost to. BYU would do themselves well to make sure they win one of these.
(48) SOUTH CAROLINA 22-5: Overall NET metrics has not been a fan of the Gamecocks. Down at 48 but with a strength of record at 13, they post an interesting seeding dilemma for the committee. Gaudy overall mark at 22-5, SC got a needed Q1 road win at Ole Miss. Just their 4th, now 4-3 but they are 5-0 in Q2 to make a fine 9-3 Q1/2 mark. The marquee win was at Tennessee with additional quality wins over Kentucky, Mississippi State and best OOC win WAC AQ Grand Candyon. Just 12 games in the first two quads is sort of low and that probably is reflected in their 282 non conference mark and 9 wins in Q4. There are two Q3 losses here at home to LSU and Georgia so you can see this resume is all over the place. A wicked 4 game finish shows a road game at desperate Texas A&M followed by home games vs Florida/Tennessee and back on the road at Mississippi State. Would not want to have to sift through the NET wreckage if they do not pick up a win in one of these.
EIGHT SEEDS
(31) FLORIDA 19-8: The 4-8 mark in Q1 and 6-8 overall in Q1/2 may not be overwhelming but its enough. No loss outside Q1. This is the clean profile the selection committee likes. Solid enough non conference sos at 102 shows the win over Richmond now AQ and bubble Pittsburgh. In SEC the win at Kentucky is looking better each day. Throw in an additional wins over Auburn and Mississippi State and that is 4 wins vs teams in field. All systems go for the Gators as long as they take care of business vs SEC dreg Missouri at home. Additional Q1 opportunities at SC and home to Bama will be chances to bump their seeding up or down.
(39) OKLAHOMA 19-8: OU survived OT at Okie State in a game that could have only hurt them. Sooners only have 3 wins vs teams in the field....Iowa State, BYU and last 4 in Providence 4-6 in Q1 includes road wins at Cincy/KSU. 3-2 in Q2 includes a win over Iowa, their best OOC win. This is overall is another solid clean profile from the top rated conference with worst loss is on the road to Central Florida (Q1). Yet there is a nagging feeling that there needs to be something additional here. Road trips to Iowa State and Texas sandwich home games with Houston and Cincy. Is beating Cincy enough? Probably but I could see the Sooners taking a major seeding hit with that kind of finish.
(37) FLORIDA ATLANTIC 21-7: Well it is official the Owls are out of contention for the AAC regular season title after losing at Memphis. Surprising that the FAU has not translated their strong OOC play which shows a win over Arizona over to league play where even in wins they have struggled to put away lesser. Their resume has definitely become weird. That Arizona win is their lone Q1 win (just 1-1). Quad 2 mark of 6-4 includes neutral sites wins over Butler, A&M, Va Tech, SMU, and Loyola Chicago but yet none of those are tourney projected teams. In fact you have to go all the way to Quad 3 to find a win over Coastal AQ Charleston to find a win over a team headed (for now) to the NCAA tourney. Stunningly there are two Q4 losses to Bryant and Florida Gulf Coast. Schedule strength at 95/52 is quite solid. Suddenly a profile that seemed so solid is showing some holes. The next 2 of Tulane and at North Texas do not provide any meat to add to the resume but they represent must win games in that the Owls cannot afford anymore bad losses. Then a home finale against Memphis who is still trying to fight for survival as a bubble team might not be a must win but....
(24) MICHIGAN STATE 17-11: Okay so suddenly Sparty has become a bubble team after losing back to back home games to Iowa and Ohio State. This is the point in the season where schools need to be fortifying their resume not putting up red flags. Yes the NET is in love with the Spartans at 24 but a few things happening here. Loss total is now up to 11 with a game at Purdue looming, a home game vs Northwestern who has had their number the past couple years then a road trip to Indiana. What happens at 13-14 losses. Their Quad stuff is not all that great once you start digging in. 3-7 in Q1 and 8-11 in Q1/2. Taking on a couple additional losses in the next 2 will put them near last 4 territory. Assuming at loss at Purdue, Northwestern becomes a must win. The Baylor OOC is the marquee win to go along with a home win over Illinois. Yet you have to dig to AQs Indiana State and Oakland for other wins vs schools in the field. True there are no losses outside Q2 (Ohio State the worst) and the 24/45 SOS will be handy to point to. Pay attention to the home loss to bubble contender 23-3 James Madison, how big is that loss looming for a few reasons.
NINE SEEDS
(53) NORTHWESTERN 19-8: If the Wildcats did not suffer a stunning Q4 loss to Chicago State, they would already be locked into the field. 4-5 in Quad 1 and a very fine 9-7 in Q1/2. Excellent wins here with the big bounty being Purdue. OOC win over Dayton. A total of 5 wins vs teams in field also includes Illinois, Nebraska, and Michigan State. I always talk about red flags, you want to have as little as possibel. Northwestern also has a non conference sos of 330 so when you combine it with that Quad 4 loss, its the kind of combo that the committee frowns upon. Now whether its just a seeding ding or puts the Cats at large chances in jeopardy depends on how they finish their last 4. Certainly a manageable stretch in that none of the 4 are tops in the league all 4 are against teams who can be dangerous...at Maryland, Iowa, at Michigan State, Minnesota. Iowa and now Michigan State fighting for their bubble lives. Cats would do well to win 3 of these and lock it up.
(28) MISSISSIPPI STATE 20-8: Bulldogs took care of business running through SEC lessser with a 5 game win streak but now its time for their gauntlet that will determine their fate. Home games with Kentucky/So Carolina sandwich road games at Auburn/A&M. High risk/high reward. They might have done enough where just a one win is enough but 2 would lock them in. Just 3-6 in Q1 but the 5-0 in Q2 makes up for it. Some pretty good wins here....Tennessee and Auburn at home in league but neutral site wins looking better each day Washington State and Northwestern. The concerns are the road mark at just 2-6 and having a Q3 loss to Ga Tech and an ugly Q4 loss to Southern. Those are the kind of things that could crop up in the committee meetings if the Bulldogs do not finish the season strong.
(32) BOISE STATE 17-8: Broncs got a nice metric bump in overall NET by beating up on MVC dregs the past 3 games. Like most of the MVC schools on this analysis, they each take turns beating one another. Boise has the requisite wins over San Diego State and Colorado State at home but to their advantage picked off New Mexico and Nevada on the road in their only meetings thus far. 5-5 in Q1 win also includes a neutral site OOC win over St Marys. Non conference sos of 29 very good albeit a couple losses to bubbles Va Tech and Butler. Broncs finish at Air Force, then Nevada and New Mexico at home before a trip to San Diego State. Winning those home games to complete the season sweep are the type of wins that will lock them in no doubt. A combo of the AF win and one of the other 3 most likely is enough although they could move closer to those first four games given their SOR lags at 50.
(41) NEBRASKA 20-8: Huskers are on the verge after a week that saw them get a much needed win on the road at Indiana and taking care of bubble Minnesota last night. 4 Quad 1 wins include the big feather in their cap win over Purdue plus quality win vs Wisconsin and Michigan State. An additional Q2 win over Northwestern. 7-8 in Q1/2 with only one Q1 game left vs OSU. SOR soaring to 27. No loss outside Q2 with their worst loss being at Rutgers. Nebby can keep their clean profile by taking care of RU and winning at Michigan. The 2-7 road mark of course the concern but with 2 opportunities coming up at OSU/Michgan they can emphatically check that box. Nebby will not be able to overcome the tragic 322 non conference schedule but at least there is a win over bubble Kansas State to point to. How they finish can strengthen their seeding or put them in the first four games.
TEN SEEDS
(42) NEVADA 21-6: Pack at a fine 5-4 in Q1 led by their win at league leading Utah State. Home wins over Colorado State and San Diego State plus a coveted non conference win over TCU. Just 1-1 in Q2. Wolfpack have the lowest metrics of any of the MVC bubbles at 42 in the NET and backed up by results based SOR at 42. Its interesting because they do have advantages that say a school like New Mexico does not have, however the Lobos beat Nevada 2x including a 34 point beatdown. Head to head is not a factor but when deciding on those last bids and whether that 6th MVC school is going to get in, stuff like that will end up mattering. Also note that 10 of their wins are in Q4, a Q3 loss to Wyoming and a non conference sos of 258. These are the negatives that could conspire against Nevada pending their finish. It would be in their best interest to pick off either Colorado State or Boise on the road and take care of Fresno and UNLV at home.
(40) TEXAS 17-10: Sound the alarm because the Longhorns profile is suddenly looking rather ordinary. Very tough navigating the Big 12 where every other night is a Quad 1 game, yet at the same time you have to win you fair share of them. Texas has just 3 wins of note. Now a plus is that two of them were on the road at TCU and Oklahoma. The Baylor win certainly is the highlight win of the year but wait, that is all? 4-7 in Quad 1 does include a win at fading bubble Cincy. 2-2 in Q2 shows their best non conference win of LSU. That is just 6-9 in Q1/2 but it gets worse as they are just 2-1 in Q3 making for a 8-10 sub 500 mark in Q1/2/3...that Q3 loss to WVU hurts here. A whopping 9 wins in Q4 on a lesams than good 221 OOC SOS. It is not a profile that can take on many more losses, even if they are in Q1. Road games at Texas Tech and Baylor loom with home games vs Ok State/OK. Can they just get by with wins in those last 2. I would lean yes but there will still be some sweating down in Texas.
(61) SETON HALL 18-9: Pirates keeping pace by repelling two Big East bubble schools St John's and Butler, the latter of which were knocked out of the field with the loss to the Pirates. The Q1 of 5-5 looks good on paper as does the 8-7 mark in Q1/2. SHU's resume is feeding almost exclusively off two powerful Quad 1 home wins over Connecticut and Marquette. Those are projected one and two seeds and are generally worth more than one win. That helps offset the fact that their only other win vs a team in the field is another bubble barely in school Providence who they split with. Unlike the Friars, SHU does not have a quality out of confernce win. In fact their non conference sos of 244 shows losses to the likes of USC and Rutgers in Quad 3 with their best win an awful Missouri. The concern I have is the next two are at Creighton and at UConn. Losses there would put the Hall at 10-11 Q1/2/3 putting enormous pressure on to win their home game with a still alive bubble Villanova (who whacked them earlier by 26). In that case the De Paul finale might be about winning by 50 plus to rack up as many metric points in the NET that they could. Do note the SOR at 35 is very willing.
(49) VIRGINIA 20-8: Cavs have been putting up some dreadful numbers of late offensively. The 34 point drubbing early in the week at Virginia Tech where they scored only 41 put them on bubble notice and they would follow it up with a 44 point performance vs UNC on Saturday. UVA is still afloat for now but the question is can they stop the resume from taking on more water. 3 very good wins here in Quad 1 (3-4) led by at Clemson and neutral site Florida plus the Wake win taking on more prominence. 3-3 in Q2 shows losses to distant bubbles Pitt, Memphis, NC State. There is a win over Va Tech while their OOC win over A&M losing its luster. Obviously the Q3 loss to Notre Dame hurts. Its a bit concerning that a power 6 school has 14 of their 20 wins coming from Q3/4. Last 3 of at BC a must win, Ga Tech must win with those 2 sandwiched around a trip to Duke. Obviously winning at Duke can make things right and lock them in. Without that game they sit precariously closer to playing in the first four games.
ELEVEN SEEDS
(33) INDIANA STATE* 23-5: Sycamores back up as the projected AQ from the Missouri Valley. A mid major NET darling at 33 but that is also backed up by results based SOR at 36. 1-2 in Q1 with at win at Bradley, decent 4-3 in Q2 highlighed by a win over Drake and another win over Bradley. The issue I have is are wins against solid but not great MVC schools enough for a bid. There is no standout win here. ISU took on Alabama and Michigan State but lost both by double digits. Their best OOC win was Toledo. There is now a damaging Q4 loss as the loss to Illinois State has now slipped into that catagory. The path is to win the last 2 and reach the MVC finals and lose to Drake but in that case they just might as well win the whole thing.
(84) SOUTH FLORIDA* 21-5: Currently the projected AQ from the AAC, theBulls keep coming. Laughed off as a AAC aberration at first, they are now 14-1 in league play and are on the verge of wrapping up the regular season title. Their at large hopes are improving albeit still a longshot. There are tons of sticky issues to overcome. Start with the non conference sos of 326. Them the unfortunate part is the 2 Q4 losses to Maine and Central Michigan. The Bulls appear to be a way different team than the one in November but how closely will those games be analyzed. Yet there is not even a Q1 win here let alone a game played in Q1 0-0 now that FAU has slipped. 5-3 in Q2 still includes losses to the like of Hofstra and UMass. Of course the win over FAU is the flagbearer followed by some nice wins over SMU, Memphis and FSU. If they get win these last 3, securing a regular season AAC title in the 10th ranked conference at least puts them somewhat in play....get to the finals and finish 26-6 and there could be a legit case made for them.
(55) PROVIDENCE 18-9: Friars were off this weekend and their profile manage to hold sway amongst the bubble chaos around them. 5-6 in Q1 and 8-9 in Q1/2 look better on paper than in reality. Like SHU, they are largely living off of upper level Quad 1 home wins this time its Creighton and Marquette. They do have that additional OOC Q1 win over Wisconsin. Split with SHU with both schools winning on the road. A bit of an issue is that some of their splits with the likes of St Johns, Butler, Xavier taking on less prominence given those schools midding profiles now. Big bonus is no loss outside Q2. However its concerning that 10 of their wins are in Q4 with a non conference sos of 241. PC is 0-0 in Q3 meaning they are below 500 currently in Q1/2/3 at 8-9. Need some wins in these next 4 and that means more than just winning at Georgetown. Road game upcoming with Marquette with Connecticut and Villanova at home. Wins against either Marquette or Connecticut lock them in the field. Just like with SHU, the Nova game is looking like a must win....and remember its also a must win for Nova.
(25) WAKE FOREST 18-9: Demon Deacons did it. They desperately needed a Quad 1 win and got it by taking down Duke. That vaulted them in the field but they are not in any position for their spot to be guaranteed. NET is up to 25 but the SOR is only at 44. Their win over Florida has moved from Q1 to Q2 for now but its still a very good win regardless. I get 1-4 in Quad 1 is a weak number but Wake is 5-5 in Q2 and its showing wins over Virginia and two further out bubbles Pitt and Va Tech. There are losses also to bubbles Utah and Pitt. Q2 but not so good losses to the likes of Georgia and LSU. WF really did not schedule too well in OOC play and that is represented in the 261 mark showing a win over Rutgers in Quad 3 as their best OOC win. Last 4 only show 2 Q1 opportunties, the first on the road at Va Tech with a home game againt Clemson. Deacons might actually need both given they also have a paltry road mark of 2-7. 1-1 though could at least keep them in the first four. There is also a road game vs Notre Dame and home to Ga Tech that are musts.
(26) NEW MEXICO 20-7: Lobos suffered a closing seconds home loss to Quad 4 Air Force that leaves a scar. Never want to be sitting near the bubble with a Q4 loss with a non conference sos of 271. Now the UNM is loved by the NET at 26 higher than the other MVC bubbles but their SOR ominously sits at 59. 15 of their 20 wins are coming from Q3 and Q4. 4-3 in Q1 solid with the wins over San Diego State, Colorado State and Utah State at home. Just 1-2 in Q2 shows the completion of the sweep over Nevada which we mentioned above. How a New Mexico/Nevada comparison goes if both are being evaluated together is unclear. Their best OOC win is a good one over Big West AQ Cal Irvine. Trips to Boise State and Utah State sandwich a home game with Fresno. I think the Lobos need to win one of those to stay above the fray or risk being sucked right out of the tournament
(21) GONZAGA 21-6: Bubble chaos and all of sudden the Zags float their way back into the field. It does not hurt that their road win at Kentucky is looking more succulent following the Cats annihilation of Alabama on Saturday. Zags still only 1-5 in Q1 and a not much better 2-1 in Q2 with wins over Syracuse and San Fransisco. Amazingly 18 of their 21 wins are in Q3/4. Yet no loss outside Q2 and there is something to be said for their OOC scheduling however futile it was at 23. One wonders the subliminal bias that might be at play with the selection committee when evaluating Gonzaga. Whether the Zags can hold this spot will basically come down to their last two games at San Fran and at St Marys. Win them both and they are likely locking in. Win the first and lose to St Marys means a trip to the WCC finals is mandatory where given Mark Few's penchant for getting his team peaking at the right time, would not be surprised if they win the whole thing.
TWELVE SEEDS
(72) RICHMOND* 20-7: Spiders are back up as the projected AQ from the Atlantic 10. Their at large hopes are somewhat murky. Yes the committee has been known to give a 2nd bid to this league but Spiders resume seems to fall short on the necessary wins of note needed to receive that extra bid. 1-2 in Q1 with the big win over Dayton, Q2 is a decent 5-3 but that includes just A10 foes like St Bonnies, Loyola, Duquense, Davidson. There is a Q2 OOC win over UNLV. The 2 Q3 losses here really hurt not so much the home loss to Umass but the Q3 at Wichita State. Their last 4 do not really offer anything to move the needle with VCU the only semi quality opportunity. If they can run the table and secure the regular season title and perhaps make it to the A10 finals that could be their path.
(52) MC NEESE STATE* 20-3: Currently the projected AQ from the Southland, my advice to them is just keep winning. 4 more games before the Southland Tourney. Its about not taking on any losses before the Southland final and then hoping the selection committee will be impresssed by some of their metrcs. 52 NET, 51 SOR, 26-4 record, non conference sos of 125, 3-2 mark in Q2 including all on the road wins over VCU, Michigan, UAB. That Q4 loss at SE Louisiana may be the fatal stinger here.
(59) GRAND CANYON* 23-4: Currently the projected AQ from the WAC, theLopes were looking pretty good as an at large candidate until last week. The Q3 loss at Tarleton State could excused but they followed it up with a Q4 loss to Abilene Christian which dropped the NET all the way down to 59. They still have the non conference wins over San Diego State and San Fransisco to point to that help make up the 3-2 Q1/2 mark. 19 of their 23 wins coming in Q3/4 now becomes a bigger hurdle to overome. Not impossible as an at large but there are much better choices now.
(74) APPALACHIAN STATE* 22-5: Currently the AQ from Sun Belt, the Mountaineers sport wins over James Madison 2x and Auburn to put them 3-0 in Q1/2. The 3 losses in Q3 might be excused but unfortunately for them having 2 Q4 losses Texas State and Northern Illinois seal their fate as an at large.
THIRTEEN SEED
CORNELL*
SAMFORD*
UC IRVINE*
AKRON*
FOURTEEN SEEDS
MOREHEAD STATE*
VERMONT*
CHARLESTON*
HIGH POINT*
FIFTHTEEN SEEDS
SAM HOUSTON STATE*
EASTERN WASHINGTON*
OAKLAND*
COLGATE*
SIXTEEN SEEDS
FAIRFIELD*
EASTERN KENTUCKY*
MERRIMACK*
NORFOLK STATE*
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE*
GRAMBLING STATE*
BUBBLE OUT
(54) UTAH 16-11: Utes have wobbled in and out of the field for weeks. The 24 point loss at bubble Colorado was missed opportunity for a needed Q1 win and now the Buffaloes have become competition along thbubble. 3-7 in Q1 includes very impressive non conference wins vs BYU, St Marys, and Wake. 5-3 in Q2 showing wins in league wins over Washington State and Colorado are looking better. Its not a bad profile. Yes losses to Stanford, USC and getting swept by ASU are not good looks yet only the home ASU is Utah's sole loss outside Q1 Unfortunately, the Utes have just one Quad 1 opportunity a road game left at Oregon can measurably help. They absolutely need to win the others which include at Oreg State, and Stanf/Cal at home. The sos stuff at 20/27 will be a big help. No guarantees that a third team can be taken from the Pac 12 and note their SOR languishes at 57.
(38) VILLANOVA 15-12: Wildcats in a delicate situation now that they have absorbed a 12th loss. The 3 Quad 3 losses to Drexel, St Joes, and Penn are unsightly on their own but this is where they come into play. The loss total now so bulky their margin of error is really tiny. The fact that they have 3 Q1 opportunities left may not be something to play in their favor. Even should they win 2 out of at SHU, at PC, Creighton (of course assuming an autowin over Gtown), they will head into the Big East tourney with 13 losses, if they lost in the final it puts them at 20-14. That is quite a bulky loss total. Even with some strong metrics and a bevy of non conference and conference wins does a team with that many losses and 3 bad losses deserve to get a bid. Let us tout the good here. Nova has wins over UNC and Texas Tech OOC with a Big East road win at Creighton. Puts them at 3-8 in Q1 and in Q2 they are a fine 6-1 with wins over 2 more teams in the field SHU and PC. That totals 5 wins vs that group. A chance to pick up a couple more putting them at 7 would perhaps be hard for the committee to pass up even with a 14 loss total. SOS at 15/81 overall is a plus but the lagging SOR at 61 may portend bad news. Will certainly be interesting to watch how their outrageous resume goes over the next two weeks.
(62) BUTLER 15-12: Bulldogs played their way into the field a few weeks back but just have run into a gauntlet of games that have pushed them out of the field. Butler lost 5 of 6 and 4 straight. 5 quad 1 losses, the only win a Q2 at home vs Providence. This has sunk the Quad 1 mark to an unruly 3-11. Strong wins at Creighton and home to Marquette plus a neutral site win at Boise is a plus. In Quad 2 (4-1),there are additional wins vs team in field over Texas Tech and Providence which gives them 5 in total. However when you lose that much in Quad 1, it says alot about you. Q1/2/3 mark is 9-12..that is 3 games below 500 and a no go at the moment. However the schedule which is ranked 3rd currently does ease. Home games vs St Johns and Xavier while not quality wins per se are still Q2 opportunities to push that Q1/2/3 mark to 11-12. Asssuming a win at De Paul but the Bulldogs will at least be in contention at 18-12. Somewhat similar to Nova but note they do not have any loss outside Q2 and only 1 loss outside Q1 plus they have a much easier finish to the season. Conference tourney plays as not mattered much at all the past few years so I am not sure a run by any of the Big East bubbles will have much impact.
(34) COLORADO 18-9: Said before I have not been a fan of their resume but the Buffaloes are creeping up the pecking order. The rousing win over Utah continue to feed the metrics pushing the NET to 34. The Buffs would be the highest rated NET school left out of the field. SOR at 56 might be a more accurate rating here. They are just 1-5 in Q1 games and that win at Washington is not something to move any needles. Very good job in Q2 shows that recent win over Utah, a win over Washington State and a non conference win over A10 AQ Richmond. . We can debate the 7-4 Q2 mark for quality because it consists of a bunch of Pac 12 also rans on the road such as UCLA, Arizona State and Stanford which speaks to that 2-7 road mark. Not sure the 8-9 Q1/2 mark passes a real smell test when compared to what Providence and Seton Hall are showing. Non conference sos of 250 not a good combo with the lack of Q1 wins and road mark. Buffs do not get any shots at quality win besides a Q2 road game at Oregon. Must take care of Stan/Cal at home and at Oreg St as well. Can hope 22-9 and hope their clean profile can be an alternative to some sloppy bloated bubble schools.
(50) JAMES MADISON 25-3: Dukes becoming an intriguing at large candidate. A Quad 1 win at Michigan State, a gaudy 25-3 mark that could be 29-4 with a loss in the Sunbelt finals, Just 3 losses overall....2 losses to Sunbelt AQ Appalachian State, a loss to Southern Miss in Q3 perhaps their only misstep..can you really penalize them for that. 1-1 in Q1, 1-1 in Q2, 4-1 in Q3 includes a win over MAC AQ Akron. The nonconference sos of 327 despite the Sparty win is a concern as is the overall sos of 306. But isnt this the kind of profile you want to give a shot. Maybe the SOR at 40 is indeed telling us something
(58) TEXAS A & M 15-12: Not sure anyone has had a worse two weeks than the Aggies. Projected as a possible 7 or 8 seed after knocking off Tennessee, the Aggies went on to lose at lowly Vanderbilt, get boatraced at Alabama, lose at home to a mediocre Arkansas and then get humiliated by 35 at Tennessee. By all eye tests, the Aggies appear blind. A&M is putting some wild Quad marks on the board. 5-6 in Q1 includes wins over Tennessee, Iowa State, and Kentucky but 2 that do not do much for them in SMU/Ohio State. In Quad 2 they are 3-2 with a win over Florida. Their loss to Ole Miss is barely hanging on in Q2 and could become their 5th Quad 3 loss. In Quad 3 it is ugly at 2-4. Losses to bubble Memphis, Arky, LSU and the Vandy loss which could very well move into Quad 4. 8-8 in Q1/2 certainly seems solid but now down to 10-12 in Q1/2/3. Their profile has taken on alot of losses. 4 Quad 3 losses will be an issue no doubt and not sure I have ever seen a school selected with that many. Memphis could move to Q3 so perhaps it moves to 3. Remember though its BODY OF WORK, not how you finish. Certainly the Aggies have damaged their resume but no one can take their quality wins away. They are 10/22 in SOS so that is a plus. Their key now is to do a big turnaround starting with taking down South Carolina at home, winning at Georgia, and knocking off Mississippi State. Those 3 wins would put them back on track with the season finale at Ole Miss taking on great meaning. That is the path, the question is can they pull a total flip of the script?
(60) IOWA 16-12: Hawkeyes making a late season tourney push saw a late lead slip through their fingers at Illinois but will get another crack at the Illini at home in the season finale. No more margin of error but their path is pretty simple. Iowa needs to beat Penn State at home, win at Northwestern and knock off Illinois. Would add 2 wins to their current 2-8 mark and vault them into the field. Best wins right now are Wisconsin, at Michigan State, Nebraska, and Seton Hall so absolutely two more wins vs tourney projected teams will elevate their resume big time and fix that 7-11 Q1/2 mark plus the 10-12 Q1/2/3. There is a Q3 loss to Michigan but not sure that hurts all that much given its about getting quality wins which likely raises that SOR of 57. SOS of 12/95 works in their favor. A definite shot.
(73) KANSAS STATE 16-11: Wildcats got a big Q1 home win on Saturday vs BYU to resuscitate their at large hopes. KSU had lost 7 of 8 and saw its metrics tank across the board. Now 3-6 Q1/7-10 Q1/2 one can see a path for them. There are wins here over Kansas and Baylor at home and neutral site over Providence. That gives them 4 wins vs teams in the field. Note an OOC win over bubble Nova but also a home loss to Nebraska. A borderline Q2/3 loss to USC along with Q2 losses to Miami and Oklahoma State are problematic. The 2-6 road mark and the non conference sos of 238 are other obstacles to overcome. Just watched KSU up a ton in the first half be forced into OT by lowly WVU but they ended up surviving to move to 17-11. That will not move their metric any but at least they got this one out of the way. Now a road trip to Cincy/Kansas with a home game vs Iowa State. Winning all 3 puts them in the field, taking 2 of those 3 and they are going to really be bubblicious but not sure if its enough. I suppose Big 12 tourney performance could be used but last year the field was set beforehand so its up to the Cats to state their case beforehand.
(75) MISSISSIPPI 19-8: Early bracketologists fell in love with the Rebels who started the season 15-1. They have lost 7 of 11 and 5 of their last 6 and all their metrics have cratered. With A&Ms freefall that road win has lost some luster leaving home wins over Florida and Mississippi State as their only wins vs teams in field. 3-6 in Q1 but a paltry 1-2 in Q2 for a no bueno 4-8 in Q1/2. 15 of their 19 wins coming from Q3/4 is something you see from a low major not the SEC. You can see it in their OOC SOS of 328. Best OOC win is Memphis/NCState. I get that there are no losses outside Q2 and somehow the SOR is 33 but there seem to be better choices all around them. Big home tilt with Alabama up next and a win there will push them close but its likely going to take wins at Georgia/Missouri and then the home finale vs Texas A&M to really feel confident in making it. Not a believer.
(46) DRAKE 22-6: Bulldogs fell from the projected Missouri Valley AQ back into the at large field. The loss to Northern Iowa was just a Q2 loss but the thinking is their margin of error is zero. 2-1 in Q1 with an outstanding non conference win over Nevada and a win at Bradley. Split with AQ Indiana State, 3-3 in Q2 also shows a win over MAC AQ Akron. That makes 3 wins vs teams in the field. The negative is 2 Q3 losses to Missouri State and Stephen F Austin. The non conference sos just 284 and SOR at just 67 might give some pause. Will need to win last 2 including a Q2 home game with Bradley and hope reaching MVC finals at 26-7 can be enough to send a 2nd team from the 9th rated conference in the country.
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(47) PITTSBURGH 18-9: Panthers suffered a 33 point loss at Wake which put them on life support but were able to revive their hopes for now by getting a Q2 win in bubble matchup with Va Tech. Still have some good starter wins here...at Duke, at Virginia and Wake all in Quad 1 where they are 3-5. Problem comes in Q2 where they are just 2-2 for a paltry 5-7 in Q1/2. Those wins are just Va Tech and NC State. Pitt was swept by Syracuse and have other questionable losses to Miami and worst of all Missouri in Q3. Simply horrific non conference scheduling rated 344 and showing West Virginia as their best win. Any hope they have resides with getting a Quad 1 road win at Clemson and then taking care of at BC, FSU, NC State. The first will move the needle, the next 3 will not but 3 more wins gets them to 22-9 and they will at least be up on the board.
(44) SAINT JOHN'S 16-12: Red Storm got a rousing signature win over Creighton but is it a case of a little too late and just not enough meat on the plate? SJU now up to a woeful 2-9 in Q1 and that other win was on the road at Nova. In Quad 2 it is a better 6-2, showing the sweep over Nova plus a nice non conference win over Utah and a win over Providence plus a win over Butler 3 wins over last 4 out schools aside, the Johnnies have only 2 wins vs teams projected in the field. 8-11 vs Q1/2 and 11-12 in Q1/2/3 shows only one slip up vs Michigan. Their big issue is their schedul to finish the season. A road trip to Butler is a Q1 game but the next 2 at De Paul and Georgetown at home are Quad 4 games. A win at Butler will only move their needle marginally. Again I have doubts until I see it about conference tourney performance meaning much. I do not think a resume can be built during championship week. Just how is St John's going to be able to move this thin resume into the field?
(51) PRINCETON 19-3: Tigers in a 3 way tie atop the Ivy League standings. While we know Princeton may pass the eye test and what they bring to the table given their NCAA history, selection is based on criteria. Without a single Q1 win right now, its tough to place the Tigers in the field. In fact the Tigers have not played a single game in Q1. Q2 shows 3-3 with wins vs Rutgers, Duquense and Hofstra which do not move any NCAA needles. Just 3 losses...2 conference games to Yale and Cornell on the road but that loss to St Joes might be too costly. Tough to get around 16 of 19 wins coming from Q3 and 4. Ivy is 12th rated league and sos just 220 is working against them but eyeballs poppin at that SOR of 32. Must win Ivy League regular season outright to have any hope.
(45) CINCINNATI 16-11: Bearcats are down to their last life after dropping 4 of 5. Net metrics which had been their biggest strength starting to slip. Cincy is 4-7 in Quad 1 with road wins at BYU and Texas Tech. A home win over TCU. A sweep of UCF is their final Q1 and also their only Q2 win...just 1-2 there for a paltry 5-9 Q1/2 mark. Only 2-2 in Quad 3 making a 7-11 mark in Q1/2/3 and that simply is a non starter for a profile lacking a true marquee win. Non conference sos is woeful 319 with best win Quad 3 Eastern Washington. I suppose with a game at Houston and at Oklahoma left along with home tilt with Kansas State it aint over til its over but is anyone believing Cincy can do that.
(79) MEMPHIS 20-8: Just when the Tigers were being written off, here they come again. Home wins over top 4 AAC teams Charlotte and FAU have helped stablize a profile which was taking on too many low end Q2 and Q3 losses. Much of their resume lies with their non conference peroformance. The OOC SOS a solid 77. 2-3 in Quad 1 includes wins over Clemson and at Texas A&M. Quad 2 at 4-2 shows a win over Virginia . SMU, at VCU, and the aforementioned win over Florida Atlantic. No shame in a one point Q3 loss to AAC AQ South Florida and even a 2 point loss at Tulane could be forgiven but the Tigers also have a Q4 loss to Rice and that is probably the one loss that is going to prove costly here. Still if they can win the last 3...at East Carolina, UAB and a road game at FAU, things could get interested. Note the American is down to like the 10th rated conference and FAU will have dibs on that at large. This conference will not get three. And yet Memphis legit has shown at their best they are a threat to win the AAC tourney.
(56) VIRGINIA TECH 15-12: With a bulky 12 losses on a flawed resume, the Hokies are headed under the Mendoza line very soon. There are times you can see a path especially after the 34 point beatdown over Virginia but then they followed that one up with a double digit loss at bit. There are some solid wins here. 3-8 in Quad 1 includes a win over Clemson and big time non conference wins vs Iowa State and Boise State. Yet only 2-2 in Q2 despite the win over Virginia puts them at just 5-10 in Q1/2 and they are just 9-12 in Q1/2/3. Yes 2 Q3 losses to Miami (who swept them) and Notre Dame. There is a ghastly 1-8 road mark. Now not sure there is even a path for them, even if they win at Cuse/UL and beat Wake/ND at home, that would add a Q1 and Q2 win but they are so far back now that beating a Wake just will not move them up all that much.
(85) SYRACUSE 17-10: Orange hanging around the outskirts of the bubble but Cuse simply does not have enough and is running out time. Even if they won out vs Va Tech at Louisville and at Clemson adding another Q1 win the Orange will fall short. Yes the win over UNC was great but more an anomoly than anything else. Just 2-7 in Q1, the other win at Pitt. who they swept by the way. Just 3-1 in Q2 puts them at 5-8 in Q1/2. Win over Oregon and did sweep NC State. Its the 2 Q3 losses to Florida State and Georgia Tech that likely seal their fate. The NET overall simply sucks at 85 but I will say the SOR at 45 does raise an eyebrow from me. Hard to make a case when there seem to be better choices around them both midmajor and power 6.
(63) OREGON 18-9: Not much going on here. The Ducks are 3rd place in a weak Pac 12, have 18 wins and inflated NET of 63. Otherwise their resume consists over one win vs the field Washington State and two wins vs NIT bubble Washington. The 6-8 mark in Q1/2 is even more middling that it looks and includes a 20 point loss to Syracuse. Somehow the weekend disaster at Cal qualifies as a Q2 and that fools no one. Ah but what is left on the schedule is a guide in how to make a tourney resume in 2 weeks. A road trip to Arizona follwed by home games to Utah and Colorado. If the Ducks can quack to their way to 3 wins, they will ascend the pecking order.
(77) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 17-10: Don't ever ever give up! The Pack at least deserve to stay here given who they have left on the schedule After a road trip to Florida State, next up is at North Carolina and then Duke, followed by another road game at Pitt. Should NC State knock off UNC and Duke they will soar up this pecking order but they likely need both and they probably need to win at Pitt too. Right now there are some starter things here...win at Clemson, wins over Wake and Virginia but not nearly enough. Paltry 2-6 in Quad 1 and scary 49 in Q1/2. Most embarrassing is 13 of their 17 wins were to Q3/4 and they were swept by Syracuse.
(66) OHIO STATE 16-12: Do not laugh but the Buckeyes have gone from Zombie status to a faint heartbeat. The win over Purdue was flukish and surely any possible Buckeye run looked finish after a loss at Minnesota. And yet one day after OSU rallied for another quad 1 win this time on the road, we are here. Now 3-6 in Q1, is there a team in the country with better paired wins than Purdue and Alabama. Not many schools have 3 high end Q1 wins. Their resume does fall short in Quad 2 where they are a paltry 1-5 with an insignificant win vs Maryland. 4-11 is a no go. 7-1 in Q3 moves the Q1/2/3 mark to 11-12. So can we even make a path for them? Unfortunately only one Q2 opportunity left with Big 10 dregs Rutgers and Michigan left. Win all 3 puts them at 19-12 but only 5-11 in Q1/2 and that just will not cut it. Perhaps if they had pulled off 2 more Big 10 games out earlier against the middle the pack they would have a fighting chance but it looks fatal in the end for them.
(78) MINNESOTA 17-10: The Gophers have made great strides this year but are almost in an impossible spot at this point. There is simply no way they can overcome that non conference sos of 360. Their road loss at Nebraska was likely their final opportunity to at least inch into the on deck circle. 1-6 in Quad 1 shows a win over Michigan State. A solid 6-3 in Q2 shows wins over tourney teams Nebraska and Northwestern. The issue is you have to go all the way to Q4 for their best OOC win Maine. 9 wins in that Quad alone. The remaining games even with a Q1 road game at Northwestern plus Indiana/Minny will not do anything for them. Will make a nice NIT team.
LAST 4 BYES: NEVADA, TEXAS, SETON HALL, VIRGINIA
LAST 4 IN: GONZAGA, NEW MEXICO, WAKE FOREST, PROVIDENCE
FIRST FOUR OUT: UTAH, VILLANOVA, BUTLER, COLORADO
NEXT FOUR OUT: JAMES MADISON, TEXAS A & M, IOWA, KANSAS STATE
ON DECK: MISSISSIPPI, DRAKE, PITTSBURGH, SAINT JOHN'S
There are 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from each conference). * denotes projected AQ. There are 36 at large bids. I am projecting 16 at large locks leaving 20 available spots in the field. I am projecting 41 schools competing for those 20 open spots. Locks are all the way up through the six seeds.
ONE SEEDS
- CONNECTICUT*
- PURDUE*
- HOUSTON*
- ARIZONA*
TWO SEEDS
- NORTH CAROLINA*
- TENNESSEE*
- KANSAS
- MARQUETTE
THREE SEEDS
- IOWA STATE
- ALABAMA
- AUBURN
- BAYLOR
FOUR SEEDS
- CREIGHTON
- DUKE
- SAN DIEGO STATE
- WISCONSIN
FIVE SEEDS
- ILLINOIS
- CLEMSON
- KENTUCKY
- WASHINGTON STATE
SIX SEEDS
- DAYTON
- UTAH STATE*
- SAINT MARY'S*
- TEXAS TECH
SEVEN SEEDS
(30) TCU 19-8: Horned Frogs are inching close as they took care of business at home vs Cincy over the weekend. The pair of wins over Houston and at Baylor are the shining lights on another clean type profiled with no losses outside Q2 (worse loss Texas). There are additional Q2 wins at home over NCAA projected Texas Tech and Oklahoma. 3-7 in Q1, 4-1 in Q2.Non conference sos of 321 with Arizona State as the best win might tamp their seeding ceiling somewhat. Baylor up next followed by tricky road swing at BYU/WVU before coming back home to take on Central Florida. Hard to imagine a scenario where they fall out of the field.
(27) COLORADO STATE 18-8: Rams have now dropped 3 of 4 and the lastest at UNLV at least raises some concern because of the bulky 6 man Mountain West race. Big question asked all year is will the Mountain West get 6? The Rams have the better combo of metrics and resume flesh than some other MWC bubbles that should make them okay. There are the necessary quality league wins over San Diego State, New Mexico, Utah State and Boise State but the biggest difference maker is the neutral site win over Creighton. Thats a top notch win that will keep giving right through Selection Sunday. 4-6 in Q1 and 8-7 in Q1/2 also includes a win over improving Colorado. There is a Q3 loss to Wyoming that will not matter much. Note the strong overall sos of 31 backed up by non conference sos of 85. Close out with Nevada/Wyoming at home followed by a trip to bottom feeding Air Force.
(13) BYU 19-8: Probably the one school most helped by inflated metrics in the NET accomplished by several 30 plus blowouts in Quad 4. The disconnect between their NET of 13 but Strength of Record of 31 plus their non conference SOS of 298 is certainly interesting to note. 4-6 in Q1 and 4-2 in Q2. Strongest of the bunch were the home wins over Iowa State and non conference over San Diego State Now the Cougars got an additional quality win over Baylor last week to give them 4 vs schools projected in the field. However they would follow it up with a road loss to Kansas State. While I am not saying the Cougars are in any real jeopardy, there is a brutal next 3 (at Kansas, TCU, at Iowa State) to navigate followed by the finale vs Oklahoma State who they already lost to. BYU would do themselves well to make sure they win one of these.
(48) SOUTH CAROLINA 22-5: Overall NET metrics has not been a fan of the Gamecocks. Down at 48 but with a strength of record at 13, they post an interesting seeding dilemma for the committee. Gaudy overall mark at 22-5, SC got a needed Q1 road win at Ole Miss. Just their 4th, now 4-3 but they are 5-0 in Q2 to make a fine 9-3 Q1/2 mark. The marquee win was at Tennessee with additional quality wins over Kentucky, Mississippi State and best OOC win WAC AQ Grand Candyon. Just 12 games in the first two quads is sort of low and that probably is reflected in their 282 non conference mark and 9 wins in Q4. There are two Q3 losses here at home to LSU and Georgia so you can see this resume is all over the place. A wicked 4 game finish shows a road game at desperate Texas A&M followed by home games vs Florida/Tennessee and back on the road at Mississippi State. Would not want to have to sift through the NET wreckage if they do not pick up a win in one of these.
EIGHT SEEDS
(31) FLORIDA 19-8: The 4-8 mark in Q1 and 6-8 overall in Q1/2 may not be overwhelming but its enough. No loss outside Q1. This is the clean profile the selection committee likes. Solid enough non conference sos at 102 shows the win over Richmond now AQ and bubble Pittsburgh. In SEC the win at Kentucky is looking better each day. Throw in an additional wins over Auburn and Mississippi State and that is 4 wins vs teams in field. All systems go for the Gators as long as they take care of business vs SEC dreg Missouri at home. Additional Q1 opportunities at SC and home to Bama will be chances to bump their seeding up or down.
(39) OKLAHOMA 19-8: OU survived OT at Okie State in a game that could have only hurt them. Sooners only have 3 wins vs teams in the field....Iowa State, BYU and last 4 in Providence 4-6 in Q1 includes road wins at Cincy/KSU. 3-2 in Q2 includes a win over Iowa, their best OOC win. This is overall is another solid clean profile from the top rated conference with worst loss is on the road to Central Florida (Q1). Yet there is a nagging feeling that there needs to be something additional here. Road trips to Iowa State and Texas sandwich home games with Houston and Cincy. Is beating Cincy enough? Probably but I could see the Sooners taking a major seeding hit with that kind of finish.
(37) FLORIDA ATLANTIC 21-7: Well it is official the Owls are out of contention for the AAC regular season title after losing at Memphis. Surprising that the FAU has not translated their strong OOC play which shows a win over Arizona over to league play where even in wins they have struggled to put away lesser. Their resume has definitely become weird. That Arizona win is their lone Q1 win (just 1-1). Quad 2 mark of 6-4 includes neutral sites wins over Butler, A&M, Va Tech, SMU, and Loyola Chicago but yet none of those are tourney projected teams. In fact you have to go all the way to Quad 3 to find a win over Coastal AQ Charleston to find a win over a team headed (for now) to the NCAA tourney. Stunningly there are two Q4 losses to Bryant and Florida Gulf Coast. Schedule strength at 95/52 is quite solid. Suddenly a profile that seemed so solid is showing some holes. The next 2 of Tulane and at North Texas do not provide any meat to add to the resume but they represent must win games in that the Owls cannot afford anymore bad losses. Then a home finale against Memphis who is still trying to fight for survival as a bubble team might not be a must win but....
(24) MICHIGAN STATE 17-11: Okay so suddenly Sparty has become a bubble team after losing back to back home games to Iowa and Ohio State. This is the point in the season where schools need to be fortifying their resume not putting up red flags. Yes the NET is in love with the Spartans at 24 but a few things happening here. Loss total is now up to 11 with a game at Purdue looming, a home game vs Northwestern who has had their number the past couple years then a road trip to Indiana. What happens at 13-14 losses. Their Quad stuff is not all that great once you start digging in. 3-7 in Q1 and 8-11 in Q1/2. Taking on a couple additional losses in the next 2 will put them near last 4 territory. Assuming at loss at Purdue, Northwestern becomes a must win. The Baylor OOC is the marquee win to go along with a home win over Illinois. Yet you have to dig to AQs Indiana State and Oakland for other wins vs schools in the field. True there are no losses outside Q2 (Ohio State the worst) and the 24/45 SOS will be handy to point to. Pay attention to the home loss to bubble contender 23-3 James Madison, how big is that loss looming for a few reasons.
NINE SEEDS
(53) NORTHWESTERN 19-8: If the Wildcats did not suffer a stunning Q4 loss to Chicago State, they would already be locked into the field. 4-5 in Quad 1 and a very fine 9-7 in Q1/2. Excellent wins here with the big bounty being Purdue. OOC win over Dayton. A total of 5 wins vs teams in field also includes Illinois, Nebraska, and Michigan State. I always talk about red flags, you want to have as little as possibel. Northwestern also has a non conference sos of 330 so when you combine it with that Quad 4 loss, its the kind of combo that the committee frowns upon. Now whether its just a seeding ding or puts the Cats at large chances in jeopardy depends on how they finish their last 4. Certainly a manageable stretch in that none of the 4 are tops in the league all 4 are against teams who can be dangerous...at Maryland, Iowa, at Michigan State, Minnesota. Iowa and now Michigan State fighting for their bubble lives. Cats would do well to win 3 of these and lock it up.
(28) MISSISSIPPI STATE 20-8: Bulldogs took care of business running through SEC lessser with a 5 game win streak but now its time for their gauntlet that will determine their fate. Home games with Kentucky/So Carolina sandwich road games at Auburn/A&M. High risk/high reward. They might have done enough where just a one win is enough but 2 would lock them in. Just 3-6 in Q1 but the 5-0 in Q2 makes up for it. Some pretty good wins here....Tennessee and Auburn at home in league but neutral site wins looking better each day Washington State and Northwestern. The concerns are the road mark at just 2-6 and having a Q3 loss to Ga Tech and an ugly Q4 loss to Southern. Those are the kind of things that could crop up in the committee meetings if the Bulldogs do not finish the season strong.
(32) BOISE STATE 17-8: Broncs got a nice metric bump in overall NET by beating up on MVC dregs the past 3 games. Like most of the MVC schools on this analysis, they each take turns beating one another. Boise has the requisite wins over San Diego State and Colorado State at home but to their advantage picked off New Mexico and Nevada on the road in their only meetings thus far. 5-5 in Q1 win also includes a neutral site OOC win over St Marys. Non conference sos of 29 very good albeit a couple losses to bubbles Va Tech and Butler. Broncs finish at Air Force, then Nevada and New Mexico at home before a trip to San Diego State. Winning those home games to complete the season sweep are the type of wins that will lock them in no doubt. A combo of the AF win and one of the other 3 most likely is enough although they could move closer to those first four games given their SOR lags at 50.
(41) NEBRASKA 20-8: Huskers are on the verge after a week that saw them get a much needed win on the road at Indiana and taking care of bubble Minnesota last night. 4 Quad 1 wins include the big feather in their cap win over Purdue plus quality win vs Wisconsin and Michigan State. An additional Q2 win over Northwestern. 7-8 in Q1/2 with only one Q1 game left vs OSU. SOR soaring to 27. No loss outside Q2 with their worst loss being at Rutgers. Nebby can keep their clean profile by taking care of RU and winning at Michigan. The 2-7 road mark of course the concern but with 2 opportunities coming up at OSU/Michgan they can emphatically check that box. Nebby will not be able to overcome the tragic 322 non conference schedule but at least there is a win over bubble Kansas State to point to. How they finish can strengthen their seeding or put them in the first four games.
TEN SEEDS
(42) NEVADA 21-6: Pack at a fine 5-4 in Q1 led by their win at league leading Utah State. Home wins over Colorado State and San Diego State plus a coveted non conference win over TCU. Just 1-1 in Q2. Wolfpack have the lowest metrics of any of the MVC bubbles at 42 in the NET and backed up by results based SOR at 42. Its interesting because they do have advantages that say a school like New Mexico does not have, however the Lobos beat Nevada 2x including a 34 point beatdown. Head to head is not a factor but when deciding on those last bids and whether that 6th MVC school is going to get in, stuff like that will end up mattering. Also note that 10 of their wins are in Q4, a Q3 loss to Wyoming and a non conference sos of 258. These are the negatives that could conspire against Nevada pending their finish. It would be in their best interest to pick off either Colorado State or Boise on the road and take care of Fresno and UNLV at home.
(40) TEXAS 17-10: Sound the alarm because the Longhorns profile is suddenly looking rather ordinary. Very tough navigating the Big 12 where every other night is a Quad 1 game, yet at the same time you have to win you fair share of them. Texas has just 3 wins of note. Now a plus is that two of them were on the road at TCU and Oklahoma. The Baylor win certainly is the highlight win of the year but wait, that is all? 4-7 in Quad 1 does include a win at fading bubble Cincy. 2-2 in Q2 shows their best non conference win of LSU. That is just 6-9 in Q1/2 but it gets worse as they are just 2-1 in Q3 making for a 8-10 sub 500 mark in Q1/2/3...that Q3 loss to WVU hurts here. A whopping 9 wins in Q4 on a lesams than good 221 OOC SOS. It is not a profile that can take on many more losses, even if they are in Q1. Road games at Texas Tech and Baylor loom with home games vs Ok State/OK. Can they just get by with wins in those last 2. I would lean yes but there will still be some sweating down in Texas.
(61) SETON HALL 18-9: Pirates keeping pace by repelling two Big East bubble schools St John's and Butler, the latter of which were knocked out of the field with the loss to the Pirates. The Q1 of 5-5 looks good on paper as does the 8-7 mark in Q1/2. SHU's resume is feeding almost exclusively off two powerful Quad 1 home wins over Connecticut and Marquette. Those are projected one and two seeds and are generally worth more than one win. That helps offset the fact that their only other win vs a team in the field is another bubble barely in school Providence who they split with. Unlike the Friars, SHU does not have a quality out of confernce win. In fact their non conference sos of 244 shows losses to the likes of USC and Rutgers in Quad 3 with their best win an awful Missouri. The concern I have is the next two are at Creighton and at UConn. Losses there would put the Hall at 10-11 Q1/2/3 putting enormous pressure on to win their home game with a still alive bubble Villanova (who whacked them earlier by 26). In that case the De Paul finale might be about winning by 50 plus to rack up as many metric points in the NET that they could. Do note the SOR at 35 is very willing.
(49) VIRGINIA 20-8: Cavs have been putting up some dreadful numbers of late offensively. The 34 point drubbing early in the week at Virginia Tech where they scored only 41 put them on bubble notice and they would follow it up with a 44 point performance vs UNC on Saturday. UVA is still afloat for now but the question is can they stop the resume from taking on more water. 3 very good wins here in Quad 1 (3-4) led by at Clemson and neutral site Florida plus the Wake win taking on more prominence. 3-3 in Q2 shows losses to distant bubbles Pitt, Memphis, NC State. There is a win over Va Tech while their OOC win over A&M losing its luster. Obviously the Q3 loss to Notre Dame hurts. Its a bit concerning that a power 6 school has 14 of their 20 wins coming from Q3/4. Last 3 of at BC a must win, Ga Tech must win with those 2 sandwiched around a trip to Duke. Obviously winning at Duke can make things right and lock them in. Without that game they sit precariously closer to playing in the first four games.
ELEVEN SEEDS
(33) INDIANA STATE* 23-5: Sycamores back up as the projected AQ from the Missouri Valley. A mid major NET darling at 33 but that is also backed up by results based SOR at 36. 1-2 in Q1 with at win at Bradley, decent 4-3 in Q2 highlighed by a win over Drake and another win over Bradley. The issue I have is are wins against solid but not great MVC schools enough for a bid. There is no standout win here. ISU took on Alabama and Michigan State but lost both by double digits. Their best OOC win was Toledo. There is now a damaging Q4 loss as the loss to Illinois State has now slipped into that catagory. The path is to win the last 2 and reach the MVC finals and lose to Drake but in that case they just might as well win the whole thing.
(84) SOUTH FLORIDA* 21-5: Currently the projected AQ from the AAC, theBulls keep coming. Laughed off as a AAC aberration at first, they are now 14-1 in league play and are on the verge of wrapping up the regular season title. Their at large hopes are improving albeit still a longshot. There are tons of sticky issues to overcome. Start with the non conference sos of 326. Them the unfortunate part is the 2 Q4 losses to Maine and Central Michigan. The Bulls appear to be a way different team than the one in November but how closely will those games be analyzed. Yet there is not even a Q1 win here let alone a game played in Q1 0-0 now that FAU has slipped. 5-3 in Q2 still includes losses to the like of Hofstra and UMass. Of course the win over FAU is the flagbearer followed by some nice wins over SMU, Memphis and FSU. If they get win these last 3, securing a regular season AAC title in the 10th ranked conference at least puts them somewhat in play....get to the finals and finish 26-6 and there could be a legit case made for them.
(55) PROVIDENCE 18-9: Friars were off this weekend and their profile manage to hold sway amongst the bubble chaos around them. 5-6 in Q1 and 8-9 in Q1/2 look better on paper than in reality. Like SHU, they are largely living off of upper level Quad 1 home wins this time its Creighton and Marquette. They do have that additional OOC Q1 win over Wisconsin. Split with SHU with both schools winning on the road. A bit of an issue is that some of their splits with the likes of St Johns, Butler, Xavier taking on less prominence given those schools midding profiles now. Big bonus is no loss outside Q2. However its concerning that 10 of their wins are in Q4 with a non conference sos of 241. PC is 0-0 in Q3 meaning they are below 500 currently in Q1/2/3 at 8-9. Need some wins in these next 4 and that means more than just winning at Georgetown. Road game upcoming with Marquette with Connecticut and Villanova at home. Wins against either Marquette or Connecticut lock them in the field. Just like with SHU, the Nova game is looking like a must win....and remember its also a must win for Nova.
(25) WAKE FOREST 18-9: Demon Deacons did it. They desperately needed a Quad 1 win and got it by taking down Duke. That vaulted them in the field but they are not in any position for their spot to be guaranteed. NET is up to 25 but the SOR is only at 44. Their win over Florida has moved from Q1 to Q2 for now but its still a very good win regardless. I get 1-4 in Quad 1 is a weak number but Wake is 5-5 in Q2 and its showing wins over Virginia and two further out bubbles Pitt and Va Tech. There are losses also to bubbles Utah and Pitt. Q2 but not so good losses to the likes of Georgia and LSU. WF really did not schedule too well in OOC play and that is represented in the 261 mark showing a win over Rutgers in Quad 3 as their best OOC win. Last 4 only show 2 Q1 opportunties, the first on the road at Va Tech with a home game againt Clemson. Deacons might actually need both given they also have a paltry road mark of 2-7. 1-1 though could at least keep them in the first four. There is also a road game vs Notre Dame and home to Ga Tech that are musts.
(26) NEW MEXICO 20-7: Lobos suffered a closing seconds home loss to Quad 4 Air Force that leaves a scar. Never want to be sitting near the bubble with a Q4 loss with a non conference sos of 271. Now the UNM is loved by the NET at 26 higher than the other MVC bubbles but their SOR ominously sits at 59. 15 of their 20 wins are coming from Q3 and Q4. 4-3 in Q1 solid with the wins over San Diego State, Colorado State and Utah State at home. Just 1-2 in Q2 shows the completion of the sweep over Nevada which we mentioned above. How a New Mexico/Nevada comparison goes if both are being evaluated together is unclear. Their best OOC win is a good one over Big West AQ Cal Irvine. Trips to Boise State and Utah State sandwich a home game with Fresno. I think the Lobos need to win one of those to stay above the fray or risk being sucked right out of the tournament
(21) GONZAGA 21-6: Bubble chaos and all of sudden the Zags float their way back into the field. It does not hurt that their road win at Kentucky is looking more succulent following the Cats annihilation of Alabama on Saturday. Zags still only 1-5 in Q1 and a not much better 2-1 in Q2 with wins over Syracuse and San Fransisco. Amazingly 18 of their 21 wins are in Q3/4. Yet no loss outside Q2 and there is something to be said for their OOC scheduling however futile it was at 23. One wonders the subliminal bias that might be at play with the selection committee when evaluating Gonzaga. Whether the Zags can hold this spot will basically come down to their last two games at San Fran and at St Marys. Win them both and they are likely locking in. Win the first and lose to St Marys means a trip to the WCC finals is mandatory where given Mark Few's penchant for getting his team peaking at the right time, would not be surprised if they win the whole thing.
TWELVE SEEDS
(72) RICHMOND* 20-7: Spiders are back up as the projected AQ from the Atlantic 10. Their at large hopes are somewhat murky. Yes the committee has been known to give a 2nd bid to this league but Spiders resume seems to fall short on the necessary wins of note needed to receive that extra bid. 1-2 in Q1 with the big win over Dayton, Q2 is a decent 5-3 but that includes just A10 foes like St Bonnies, Loyola, Duquense, Davidson. There is a Q2 OOC win over UNLV. The 2 Q3 losses here really hurt not so much the home loss to Umass but the Q3 at Wichita State. Their last 4 do not really offer anything to move the needle with VCU the only semi quality opportunity. If they can run the table and secure the regular season title and perhaps make it to the A10 finals that could be their path.
(52) MC NEESE STATE* 20-3: Currently the projected AQ from the Southland, my advice to them is just keep winning. 4 more games before the Southland Tourney. Its about not taking on any losses before the Southland final and then hoping the selection committee will be impresssed by some of their metrcs. 52 NET, 51 SOR, 26-4 record, non conference sos of 125, 3-2 mark in Q2 including all on the road wins over VCU, Michigan, UAB. That Q4 loss at SE Louisiana may be the fatal stinger here.
(59) GRAND CANYON* 23-4: Currently the projected AQ from the WAC, theLopes were looking pretty good as an at large candidate until last week. The Q3 loss at Tarleton State could excused but they followed it up with a Q4 loss to Abilene Christian which dropped the NET all the way down to 59. They still have the non conference wins over San Diego State and San Fransisco to point to that help make up the 3-2 Q1/2 mark. 19 of their 23 wins coming in Q3/4 now becomes a bigger hurdle to overome. Not impossible as an at large but there are much better choices now.
(74) APPALACHIAN STATE* 22-5: Currently the AQ from Sun Belt, the Mountaineers sport wins over James Madison 2x and Auburn to put them 3-0 in Q1/2. The 3 losses in Q3 might be excused but unfortunately for them having 2 Q4 losses Texas State and Northern Illinois seal their fate as an at large.
THIRTEEN SEED
CORNELL*
SAMFORD*
UC IRVINE*
AKRON*
FOURTEEN SEEDS
MOREHEAD STATE*
VERMONT*
CHARLESTON*
HIGH POINT*
FIFTHTEEN SEEDS
SAM HOUSTON STATE*
EASTERN WASHINGTON*
OAKLAND*
COLGATE*
SIXTEEN SEEDS
FAIRFIELD*
EASTERN KENTUCKY*
MERRIMACK*
NORFOLK STATE*
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE*
GRAMBLING STATE*
BUBBLE OUT
(54) UTAH 16-11: Utes have wobbled in and out of the field for weeks. The 24 point loss at bubble Colorado was missed opportunity for a needed Q1 win and now the Buffaloes have become competition along thbubble. 3-7 in Q1 includes very impressive non conference wins vs BYU, St Marys, and Wake. 5-3 in Q2 showing wins in league wins over Washington State and Colorado are looking better. Its not a bad profile. Yes losses to Stanford, USC and getting swept by ASU are not good looks yet only the home ASU is Utah's sole loss outside Q1 Unfortunately, the Utes have just one Quad 1 opportunity a road game left at Oregon can measurably help. They absolutely need to win the others which include at Oreg State, and Stanf/Cal at home. The sos stuff at 20/27 will be a big help. No guarantees that a third team can be taken from the Pac 12 and note their SOR languishes at 57.
(38) VILLANOVA 15-12: Wildcats in a delicate situation now that they have absorbed a 12th loss. The 3 Quad 3 losses to Drexel, St Joes, and Penn are unsightly on their own but this is where they come into play. The loss total now so bulky their margin of error is really tiny. The fact that they have 3 Q1 opportunities left may not be something to play in their favor. Even should they win 2 out of at SHU, at PC, Creighton (of course assuming an autowin over Gtown), they will head into the Big East tourney with 13 losses, if they lost in the final it puts them at 20-14. That is quite a bulky loss total. Even with some strong metrics and a bevy of non conference and conference wins does a team with that many losses and 3 bad losses deserve to get a bid. Let us tout the good here. Nova has wins over UNC and Texas Tech OOC with a Big East road win at Creighton. Puts them at 3-8 in Q1 and in Q2 they are a fine 6-1 with wins over 2 more teams in the field SHU and PC. That totals 5 wins vs that group. A chance to pick up a couple more putting them at 7 would perhaps be hard for the committee to pass up even with a 14 loss total. SOS at 15/81 overall is a plus but the lagging SOR at 61 may portend bad news. Will certainly be interesting to watch how their outrageous resume goes over the next two weeks.
(62) BUTLER 15-12: Bulldogs played their way into the field a few weeks back but just have run into a gauntlet of games that have pushed them out of the field. Butler lost 5 of 6 and 4 straight. 5 quad 1 losses, the only win a Q2 at home vs Providence. This has sunk the Quad 1 mark to an unruly 3-11. Strong wins at Creighton and home to Marquette plus a neutral site win at Boise is a plus. In Quad 2 (4-1),there are additional wins vs team in field over Texas Tech and Providence which gives them 5 in total. However when you lose that much in Quad 1, it says alot about you. Q1/2/3 mark is 9-12..that is 3 games below 500 and a no go at the moment. However the schedule which is ranked 3rd currently does ease. Home games vs St Johns and Xavier while not quality wins per se are still Q2 opportunities to push that Q1/2/3 mark to 11-12. Asssuming a win at De Paul but the Bulldogs will at least be in contention at 18-12. Somewhat similar to Nova but note they do not have any loss outside Q2 and only 1 loss outside Q1 plus they have a much easier finish to the season. Conference tourney plays as not mattered much at all the past few years so I am not sure a run by any of the Big East bubbles will have much impact.
(34) COLORADO 18-9: Said before I have not been a fan of their resume but the Buffaloes are creeping up the pecking order. The rousing win over Utah continue to feed the metrics pushing the NET to 34. The Buffs would be the highest rated NET school left out of the field. SOR at 56 might be a more accurate rating here. They are just 1-5 in Q1 games and that win at Washington is not something to move any needles. Very good job in Q2 shows that recent win over Utah, a win over Washington State and a non conference win over A10 AQ Richmond. . We can debate the 7-4 Q2 mark for quality because it consists of a bunch of Pac 12 also rans on the road such as UCLA, Arizona State and Stanford which speaks to that 2-7 road mark. Not sure the 8-9 Q1/2 mark passes a real smell test when compared to what Providence and Seton Hall are showing. Non conference sos of 250 not a good combo with the lack of Q1 wins and road mark. Buffs do not get any shots at quality win besides a Q2 road game at Oregon. Must take care of Stan/Cal at home and at Oreg St as well. Can hope 22-9 and hope their clean profile can be an alternative to some sloppy bloated bubble schools.
(50) JAMES MADISON 25-3: Dukes becoming an intriguing at large candidate. A Quad 1 win at Michigan State, a gaudy 25-3 mark that could be 29-4 with a loss in the Sunbelt finals, Just 3 losses overall....2 losses to Sunbelt AQ Appalachian State, a loss to Southern Miss in Q3 perhaps their only misstep..can you really penalize them for that. 1-1 in Q1, 1-1 in Q2, 4-1 in Q3 includes a win over MAC AQ Akron. The nonconference sos of 327 despite the Sparty win is a concern as is the overall sos of 306. But isnt this the kind of profile you want to give a shot. Maybe the SOR at 40 is indeed telling us something
(58) TEXAS A & M 15-12: Not sure anyone has had a worse two weeks than the Aggies. Projected as a possible 7 or 8 seed after knocking off Tennessee, the Aggies went on to lose at lowly Vanderbilt, get boatraced at Alabama, lose at home to a mediocre Arkansas and then get humiliated by 35 at Tennessee. By all eye tests, the Aggies appear blind. A&M is putting some wild Quad marks on the board. 5-6 in Q1 includes wins over Tennessee, Iowa State, and Kentucky but 2 that do not do much for them in SMU/Ohio State. In Quad 2 they are 3-2 with a win over Florida. Their loss to Ole Miss is barely hanging on in Q2 and could become their 5th Quad 3 loss. In Quad 3 it is ugly at 2-4. Losses to bubble Memphis, Arky, LSU and the Vandy loss which could very well move into Quad 4. 8-8 in Q1/2 certainly seems solid but now down to 10-12 in Q1/2/3. Their profile has taken on alot of losses. 4 Quad 3 losses will be an issue no doubt and not sure I have ever seen a school selected with that many. Memphis could move to Q3 so perhaps it moves to 3. Remember though its BODY OF WORK, not how you finish. Certainly the Aggies have damaged their resume but no one can take their quality wins away. They are 10/22 in SOS so that is a plus. Their key now is to do a big turnaround starting with taking down South Carolina at home, winning at Georgia, and knocking off Mississippi State. Those 3 wins would put them back on track with the season finale at Ole Miss taking on great meaning. That is the path, the question is can they pull a total flip of the script?
(60) IOWA 16-12: Hawkeyes making a late season tourney push saw a late lead slip through their fingers at Illinois but will get another crack at the Illini at home in the season finale. No more margin of error but their path is pretty simple. Iowa needs to beat Penn State at home, win at Northwestern and knock off Illinois. Would add 2 wins to their current 2-8 mark and vault them into the field. Best wins right now are Wisconsin, at Michigan State, Nebraska, and Seton Hall so absolutely two more wins vs tourney projected teams will elevate their resume big time and fix that 7-11 Q1/2 mark plus the 10-12 Q1/2/3. There is a Q3 loss to Michigan but not sure that hurts all that much given its about getting quality wins which likely raises that SOR of 57. SOS of 12/95 works in their favor. A definite shot.
(73) KANSAS STATE 16-11: Wildcats got a big Q1 home win on Saturday vs BYU to resuscitate their at large hopes. KSU had lost 7 of 8 and saw its metrics tank across the board. Now 3-6 Q1/7-10 Q1/2 one can see a path for them. There are wins here over Kansas and Baylor at home and neutral site over Providence. That gives them 4 wins vs teams in the field. Note an OOC win over bubble Nova but also a home loss to Nebraska. A borderline Q2/3 loss to USC along with Q2 losses to Miami and Oklahoma State are problematic. The 2-6 road mark and the non conference sos of 238 are other obstacles to overcome. Just watched KSU up a ton in the first half be forced into OT by lowly WVU but they ended up surviving to move to 17-11. That will not move their metric any but at least they got this one out of the way. Now a road trip to Cincy/Kansas with a home game vs Iowa State. Winning all 3 puts them in the field, taking 2 of those 3 and they are going to really be bubblicious but not sure if its enough. I suppose Big 12 tourney performance could be used but last year the field was set beforehand so its up to the Cats to state their case beforehand.
(75) MISSISSIPPI 19-8: Early bracketologists fell in love with the Rebels who started the season 15-1. They have lost 7 of 11 and 5 of their last 6 and all their metrics have cratered. With A&Ms freefall that road win has lost some luster leaving home wins over Florida and Mississippi State as their only wins vs teams in field. 3-6 in Q1 but a paltry 1-2 in Q2 for a no bueno 4-8 in Q1/2. 15 of their 19 wins coming from Q3/4 is something you see from a low major not the SEC. You can see it in their OOC SOS of 328. Best OOC win is Memphis/NCState. I get that there are no losses outside Q2 and somehow the SOR is 33 but there seem to be better choices all around them. Big home tilt with Alabama up next and a win there will push them close but its likely going to take wins at Georgia/Missouri and then the home finale vs Texas A&M to really feel confident in making it. Not a believer.
(46) DRAKE 22-6: Bulldogs fell from the projected Missouri Valley AQ back into the at large field. The loss to Northern Iowa was just a Q2 loss but the thinking is their margin of error is zero. 2-1 in Q1 with an outstanding non conference win over Nevada and a win at Bradley. Split with AQ Indiana State, 3-3 in Q2 also shows a win over MAC AQ Akron. That makes 3 wins vs teams in the field. The negative is 2 Q3 losses to Missouri State and Stephen F Austin. The non conference sos just 284 and SOR at just 67 might give some pause. Will need to win last 2 including a Q2 home game with Bradley and hope reaching MVC finals at 26-7 can be enough to send a 2nd team from the 9th rated conference in the country.
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(47) PITTSBURGH 18-9: Panthers suffered a 33 point loss at Wake which put them on life support but were able to revive their hopes for now by getting a Q2 win in bubble matchup with Va Tech. Still have some good starter wins here...at Duke, at Virginia and Wake all in Quad 1 where they are 3-5. Problem comes in Q2 where they are just 2-2 for a paltry 5-7 in Q1/2. Those wins are just Va Tech and NC State. Pitt was swept by Syracuse and have other questionable losses to Miami and worst of all Missouri in Q3. Simply horrific non conference scheduling rated 344 and showing West Virginia as their best win. Any hope they have resides with getting a Quad 1 road win at Clemson and then taking care of at BC, FSU, NC State. The first will move the needle, the next 3 will not but 3 more wins gets them to 22-9 and they will at least be up on the board.
(44) SAINT JOHN'S 16-12: Red Storm got a rousing signature win over Creighton but is it a case of a little too late and just not enough meat on the plate? SJU now up to a woeful 2-9 in Q1 and that other win was on the road at Nova. In Quad 2 it is a better 6-2, showing the sweep over Nova plus a nice non conference win over Utah and a win over Providence plus a win over Butler 3 wins over last 4 out schools aside, the Johnnies have only 2 wins vs teams projected in the field. 8-11 vs Q1/2 and 11-12 in Q1/2/3 shows only one slip up vs Michigan. Their big issue is their schedul to finish the season. A road trip to Butler is a Q1 game but the next 2 at De Paul and Georgetown at home are Quad 4 games. A win at Butler will only move their needle marginally. Again I have doubts until I see it about conference tourney performance meaning much. I do not think a resume can be built during championship week. Just how is St John's going to be able to move this thin resume into the field?
(51) PRINCETON 19-3: Tigers in a 3 way tie atop the Ivy League standings. While we know Princeton may pass the eye test and what they bring to the table given their NCAA history, selection is based on criteria. Without a single Q1 win right now, its tough to place the Tigers in the field. In fact the Tigers have not played a single game in Q1. Q2 shows 3-3 with wins vs Rutgers, Duquense and Hofstra which do not move any NCAA needles. Just 3 losses...2 conference games to Yale and Cornell on the road but that loss to St Joes might be too costly. Tough to get around 16 of 19 wins coming from Q3 and 4. Ivy is 12th rated league and sos just 220 is working against them but eyeballs poppin at that SOR of 32. Must win Ivy League regular season outright to have any hope.
(45) CINCINNATI 16-11: Bearcats are down to their last life after dropping 4 of 5. Net metrics which had been their biggest strength starting to slip. Cincy is 4-7 in Quad 1 with road wins at BYU and Texas Tech. A home win over TCU. A sweep of UCF is their final Q1 and also their only Q2 win...just 1-2 there for a paltry 5-9 Q1/2 mark. Only 2-2 in Quad 3 making a 7-11 mark in Q1/2/3 and that simply is a non starter for a profile lacking a true marquee win. Non conference sos is woeful 319 with best win Quad 3 Eastern Washington. I suppose with a game at Houston and at Oklahoma left along with home tilt with Kansas State it aint over til its over but is anyone believing Cincy can do that.
(79) MEMPHIS 20-8: Just when the Tigers were being written off, here they come again. Home wins over top 4 AAC teams Charlotte and FAU have helped stablize a profile which was taking on too many low end Q2 and Q3 losses. Much of their resume lies with their non conference peroformance. The OOC SOS a solid 77. 2-3 in Quad 1 includes wins over Clemson and at Texas A&M. Quad 2 at 4-2 shows a win over Virginia . SMU, at VCU, and the aforementioned win over Florida Atlantic. No shame in a one point Q3 loss to AAC AQ South Florida and even a 2 point loss at Tulane could be forgiven but the Tigers also have a Q4 loss to Rice and that is probably the one loss that is going to prove costly here. Still if they can win the last 3...at East Carolina, UAB and a road game at FAU, things could get interested. Note the American is down to like the 10th rated conference and FAU will have dibs on that at large. This conference will not get three. And yet Memphis legit has shown at their best they are a threat to win the AAC tourney.
(56) VIRGINIA TECH 15-12: With a bulky 12 losses on a flawed resume, the Hokies are headed under the Mendoza line very soon. There are times you can see a path especially after the 34 point beatdown over Virginia but then they followed that one up with a double digit loss at bit. There are some solid wins here. 3-8 in Quad 1 includes a win over Clemson and big time non conference wins vs Iowa State and Boise State. Yet only 2-2 in Q2 despite the win over Virginia puts them at just 5-10 in Q1/2 and they are just 9-12 in Q1/2/3. Yes 2 Q3 losses to Miami (who swept them) and Notre Dame. There is a ghastly 1-8 road mark. Now not sure there is even a path for them, even if they win at Cuse/UL and beat Wake/ND at home, that would add a Q1 and Q2 win but they are so far back now that beating a Wake just will not move them up all that much.
(85) SYRACUSE 17-10: Orange hanging around the outskirts of the bubble but Cuse simply does not have enough and is running out time. Even if they won out vs Va Tech at Louisville and at Clemson adding another Q1 win the Orange will fall short. Yes the win over UNC was great but more an anomoly than anything else. Just 2-7 in Q1, the other win at Pitt. who they swept by the way. Just 3-1 in Q2 puts them at 5-8 in Q1/2. Win over Oregon and did sweep NC State. Its the 2 Q3 losses to Florida State and Georgia Tech that likely seal their fate. The NET overall simply sucks at 85 but I will say the SOR at 45 does raise an eyebrow from me. Hard to make a case when there seem to be better choices around them both midmajor and power 6.
(63) OREGON 18-9: Not much going on here. The Ducks are 3rd place in a weak Pac 12, have 18 wins and inflated NET of 63. Otherwise their resume consists over one win vs the field Washington State and two wins vs NIT bubble Washington. The 6-8 mark in Q1/2 is even more middling that it looks and includes a 20 point loss to Syracuse. Somehow the weekend disaster at Cal qualifies as a Q2 and that fools no one. Ah but what is left on the schedule is a guide in how to make a tourney resume in 2 weeks. A road trip to Arizona follwed by home games to Utah and Colorado. If the Ducks can quack to their way to 3 wins, they will ascend the pecking order.
(77) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 17-10: Don't ever ever give up! The Pack at least deserve to stay here given who they have left on the schedule After a road trip to Florida State, next up is at North Carolina and then Duke, followed by another road game at Pitt. Should NC State knock off UNC and Duke they will soar up this pecking order but they likely need both and they probably need to win at Pitt too. Right now there are some starter things here...win at Clemson, wins over Wake and Virginia but not nearly enough. Paltry 2-6 in Quad 1 and scary 49 in Q1/2. Most embarrassing is 13 of their 17 wins were to Q3/4 and they were swept by Syracuse.
(66) OHIO STATE 16-12: Do not laugh but the Buckeyes have gone from Zombie status to a faint heartbeat. The win over Purdue was flukish and surely any possible Buckeye run looked finish after a loss at Minnesota. And yet one day after OSU rallied for another quad 1 win this time on the road, we are here. Now 3-6 in Q1, is there a team in the country with better paired wins than Purdue and Alabama. Not many schools have 3 high end Q1 wins. Their resume does fall short in Quad 2 where they are a paltry 1-5 with an insignificant win vs Maryland. 4-11 is a no go. 7-1 in Q3 moves the Q1/2/3 mark to 11-12. So can we even make a path for them? Unfortunately only one Q2 opportunity left with Big 10 dregs Rutgers and Michigan left. Win all 3 puts them at 19-12 but only 5-11 in Q1/2 and that just will not cut it. Perhaps if they had pulled off 2 more Big 10 games out earlier against the middle the pack they would have a fighting chance but it looks fatal in the end for them.
(78) MINNESOTA 17-10: The Gophers have made great strides this year but are almost in an impossible spot at this point. There is simply no way they can overcome that non conference sos of 360. Their road loss at Nebraska was likely their final opportunity to at least inch into the on deck circle. 1-6 in Quad 1 shows a win over Michigan State. A solid 6-3 in Q2 shows wins over tourney teams Nebraska and Northwestern. The issue is you have to go all the way to Q4 for their best OOC win Maine. 9 wins in that Quad alone. The remaining games even with a Q1 road game at Northwestern plus Indiana/Minny will not do anything for them. Will make a nice NIT team.
LAST 4 BYES: NEVADA, TEXAS, SETON HALL, VIRGINIA
LAST 4 IN: GONZAGA, NEW MEXICO, WAKE FOREST, PROVIDENCE
FIRST FOUR OUT: UTAH, VILLANOVA, BUTLER, COLORADO
NEXT FOUR OUT: JAMES MADISON, TEXAS A & M, IOWA, KANSAS STATE
ON DECK: MISSISSIPPI, DRAKE, PITTSBURGH, SAINT JOHN'S
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