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BACATOLOGY 2/26: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS

Palm is extremely knowledgeable. I have had dealings with him,as well. Bac's work is excellent,but Cornell is not dancing in any universe. They aren't beating Princeton and Yale back to back and are doubtful at Jadwin this Saturday. Now Princeton will be a lot closer to a play in if they beat Cornell by 10 plus on Saturday,run the table and lose like 73-71 to Yale at Columbia. You can't beat Quad One's if they won't play you and almost all have said no. The committee knows this.
He has Cornell as the AQ based on current standings
 
At some point if you can’t get the last 6 right you are of little worth. And that’s what the matrix measures. Not sure why it’s dismissed so easily here.
 
Do the CBS execs get a quiet say? For example if SHU is hovering around a 10 seed, would anyone really be surprised if Holloway's team got bumped to a 9 in Purdue's region? There's always a few potential storyline games lined up for the first couple rounds... do they really happen completely organically without getting a little extra push?
 
Do the CBS execs get a quiet say? For example if SHU is hovering around a 10 seed, would anyone really be surprised if Holloway's team got bumped to a 9 in Purdue's region? There's always a few potential storyline games lined up for the first couple rounds... do they really happen completely organically without getting a little extra push?
Going out on a limb there assuming that Purdue gets past a 16 seed this year.
 
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At some point if you can’t get the last 6 right you are of little worth. And that’s what the matrix measures. Not sure why it’s dismissed so easily here.
Why do you say that "that's what the matrix measures", when you've got plenty of people last year that missed on two teams ranked ahead of someone that got every team right?
 
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Do the CBS execs get a quiet say? For example if SHU is hovering around a 10 seed, would anyone really be surprised if Holloway's team got bumped to a 9 in Purdue's region? There's always a few potential storyline games lined up for the first couple rounds... do they really happen completely organically without getting a little extra push?
I'd say not at all...they are building a bracket, and the storylines happen naturally.
 
I do believe there is a method to his madness. I know he had you guys out but did not see what he actually said about you and Providence. Meanwhile he has Ole Miss is which is bizarre...I guess pointing to the fact that they have no bad losses.
That's the thing. As of yesterday he had nothing to say about Seton Hall or Providence, because they weren't even in his "first four out" or "next four out". They weren't even mentioned. That's how out of the loop he is, they weren't even on the radar. Meanwhile BracketMatrix has SHU in 96 of 107 brackets, and Providence 101 of 107. CBS was one of the few that did not have them, but Palm doesn't even include them on the bubble. Honestly, how can you not think he's trying to get attention/trolling at this point?
 
That's the thing. As of yesterday he had nothing to say about Seton Hall or Providence, because they weren't even in his "first four out" or "next four out". They weren't even mentioned. That's how out of the loop he is, they weren't even on the radar. Meanwhile BracketMatrix has SHU in 96 of 107 brackets, and Providence 101 of 107. CBS was one of the few that did not have them, but Palm doesn't even include them on the bubble. Honestly, how can you not think he's trying to get attention/trolling at this point?
Palm has had Seton Hall in his 1st 4 out for a while. It's incorrect to state that they aren't on his radar, or that he doesn't include them on the bubble.
 
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But the ranking are based on accuracy. Admittedly, the variances are often very minor. Even a blind squirrel would get 62 of the 68. It’s who gets those last 6 and the seeding. Like many his best days are behind him. There is a laziness to his approach. Last 3 years, Brad Wachtel outperformed Palm.
this is my third year on the matrix....first year I was oblivious to how they scored...didnt do well...too many of my own biases...last year finshed 62-65th somewhere around there which was top 33%;

I dont think he is lazy in as much as selection committee is evolving
 
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Palm is extremely knowledgeable. I have had dealings with him,as well. Bac's work is excellent,but Cornell is not dancing in any universe. They aren't beating Princeton and Yale back to back and are doubtful at Jadwin this Saturday. Now Princeton will be a lot closer to a play in if they beat Cornell by 10 plus on Saturday,run the table and lose like 73-71 to Yale at Columbia. You can't beat Quad One's if they won't play you and almost all have said no. The committee knows this.
Thank you

well I am not predicting Cornell will win but they are tied right now and my tiebreak says they are both 2-1 vs Yale so i go head to head between Princeton and cornell and cornell beat them with a game upcomng.

I still think James Madison with a win over Michigan State might have an edge
 
I've never met Jerry...but I was a customer of his until he shut down his site, and have corresponded with him several times over the past 25 years and he's always been responsive and willing to answer questions. I stick up for him because he's shown me for 25 years that he's extremely knowledgeable when it comes to the selection process.

I don't care about a point system so I have no interest in proposing one. I just find it odd that bracketmatrix makes up a point system, and some talk about it like it's an ironclad way to determine the best bracketologist, and/or cite their rankings as "proof" that someone is good/bad at it.

(edit) - one thing about a point system...I'd definitely have getting teams right worth way more than they do. There were 2 people perfect last year, and one of them ranked 98th...to me, getting the teams is WAY more important than getting seedings (especially when seeding on the actual bracket aren't even "true" seeds since they need to move teams up/down to make it work as you get down further).
agree with this.....getting it right definitely should count for more than seedings
 
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Do the CBS execs get a quiet say? For example if SHU is hovering around a 10 seed, would anyone really be surprised if Holloway's team got bumped to a 9 in Purdue's region? There's always a few potential storyline games lined up for the first couple rounds... do they really happen completely organically without getting a little extra push?
no

and for hall to get a 9 they better win at Creighton or uconn
 
Palm has had Seton Hall in his 1st 4 out for a while. It's incorrect to state that they aren't on his radar, or that he doesn't include them on the bubble.
My apologies. When I go on my phone and pull up his bracket, for some reason " Last four in" and "first four out" are not showing up. Only his "on the bubble" teams show up.

I just tried pulling it up on my computer, and next to the top seeds on the right side, I can see SHU and Providence are both " first four out". They did not show up on my phone, I honestly don't know why, but regardless I apologize for the mixup.
 
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My apologies. When I go on my phone and pull up his bracket, for some reason " Last four in" and "first four out" are not showing up. Only his "on the bubble" teams show up.

I just tried pulling it up on my computer, and next to the top seeds on the right side, I can see SHU and Providence are both " first four out". They did not show up on my phone, I honestly don't know why, but regardless I apologize for the mixup.
In your defense, the CBS website kind of sucks, and you only see a group of teams under the "Bubble" section, and need to expand it. It's mostly alphabetical, and Providence/Seton Hall both show up after you expand it.
 
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shu losing the next 2 lands them back in that last 4 in grouping.....what happens after that is unknown

and remember should fau and dayton end up winning their conference tourneys, likely two more bids opening up in the field...but Richmond may make a case
 
shu losing the next 2 lands them back in that last 4 in grouping.....what happens after that is unknown

and remember should fau and dayton end up winning their conference tourneys, likely two more bids opening up in the field...but Richmond may make a case
Does that more depend on what teams behind them do? Or does losing 2 quad 1A games on the road actually damage their profile by itself?
 
No, I don't. Contracts are already signed, ads are already sold, etc. I believe the committee does their job without influence from CBS.
I gotta bridge to sell you…. We just learned last year they really don’t consider conference tournaments. They don’t even wait for B1G tourney to end to pick and seed. Almost billion reasons to believe CBS has some import.
 
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I just think losing 2 more games puts that loss total at 11 drops them to 5-7 in Quad1 and puts them under 500 in Q1/2/3 at 10-11

As it is now, its a judgment call whether they are in the first four at the moment or no. I went with them above Wake but Wake has an easier schedule, if they stack wins they will move ahead
 
I gotta bridge to sell you…. We just learned last year they really don’t consider conference tournaments. They don’t even wait for B1G tourney to end to pick and seed. Almost billion reasons to believe CBS has some import.
Were you under the impression that they were waiting for the B1G tourney to end and then spending 20 minutes doing the bracket? They spend 5 days building it, so I thought that part was obvious.

It's not that they "don't consider" conference tournaments...it's that the last few committees haven't put as much weight into their results as some in the past...and some of that likely goes back to the fact that they're well on their way with the bracket on Thursday/Friday, and are more building out contingencies when needed than going back and totally redoing everything when an unexpected result occurs.

If TV drove the bracket, then we wouldn't end up with teams like Air Force, New Mexico, Nevada, etc being some of the most controversial selections (while many power 5 teams are unexpectedly sent to the NIT throughout the years).
 
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For anyone that's interested, here is a rather long read that actually spells out the mechanics of the selection process...most are really surprised when they see how it's done, or how much goes into it...


It's not just a "hey, lets move those two teams around so they can play each other and get better TV ratings"...the whole thing is very complex (and it takes a LOT of time to actually tweak things and you pull teams out of the bracket and vote again on everything).
 
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For anyone that's interested, here is a rather long read that actually spells out the mechanics of the selection process...most are really surprised when they see how it's done, or how much goes into it...


It's not just a "hey, lets move those two teams around so they can play each other and get better TV ratings"...the whole thing is very complex (and it takes a LOT of time to actually tweak things and you pull teams out of the bracket and vote again on everything).
No doubt. Very complex. Most of work actually done already. Interpret that as you wish. Concerns for geography. Always wanting more west coast teams in…
 
Mississippi State in dogfight with Kentucky....Bulldogs led most of the game but now trail, if they can win they are basically an at large lock
 
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