Okay let's get this thing started. Night owls come on in, grab a cup of java and your donut of choice and dive into bacatology. Early birds, see you in the morning. Comments and questions are always welcome. Tips are mandatory! Sorry for any typos, point out if you see!
There are 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from each conference). * denotes projected AQ. There are 36 at large bids. I am projecting 19 at large locks leaving 17 available spots in the field. I am projecting 37 schools competing for those 17 open spots which covers up to the first two 7 seeds
Analysis and data does not include Monday's games unless otherwise noted
1: GONZAGA*, AUBURN*, ARIZONA*, PURDUE
2: KENTUCKY, KANSAS,* BAYLOR, DUKE*
3: VILLANOVA, PROVIDENCE*, UCLA, TEXAS TECH
4: ILLINOIS*, WISCONSIN, TENNESSEE, TEXAS
5: ALABAMA, OHIO STATE, MICHIGAN STATE, LSU
6: HOUSTON, MARQUETTE, CONNECTICUT, XAVIER
7: USC, ARKANSAS
Here is the pecking order....
7 SEEDS
1. (31) COLORADO STATE 19-3: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 7-0, SOS 100/193, road/neutral: 8-2
Cowboys got a huge road win at previous conference leader Boise State keeping pace near the top of the MWC standings. MWC looks like they will get 3 bids this year and could pull off a 4th. At this time, looks like CSU might have the best case of the bunch. The Boise win was their 2nd Q1 win to go along with the impressive win over St Mary's, Looking deeper they are an outstanding 9-2 vs Q1/2 includes wins over Creighton, San Diego State and Mississippi State. Just one screw at home vs UNLV, the 19-3 record is no accident. This is a good team with a good resume. Need to just hold sway down the stretch with two landmine games at UNLV and Utah State and toughies at home with league leading Wyoming and Boise State. Would take a big collapse fall out.
2. (21) SAINT MARY'S 19-6: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 4-0, SOS: 69/82, road/neutral: 7-6
Key wins here are the neutral site wins over Oregon and Notre Dame and the road win over San Francisco. Its not an overwhelming profile but the metrics are high across the board. Most importantly no blemishes outside Q1 with the worst loss being Santa Clara. SMU seems solid enough right now but that can change given a tough schedule to finish in the year. Begin with two home games vs two desperate WCC bubbles San Fran and BYU and close out with a landmine trip to San Diego before returning home to give the Zags another try. High risk, high reward. If they get two of those, they are dancing before the WCC, if they only get one and its not Gonzaga, that will move them dangerously close to the last 4 in/last 4 out grouping and with a lot of moving parts in the WCC, MWC, and AAC that might not be a good place to be for any midmajor going into conference tourney time.
8 SEEDS
3. (43) IOWA STATE 16-9: Q1: 7-7, Q2: 0-2, SOS: 15/229, road/neutral: 4-5
Not sure what is going on with the Cyclones right now. Yes conference mark is not a consideration but they are now just 3-9 in the Big 12 and its starting to effect the metrics. The good news is that every night in the Big 12 provides another opportunity for a Q1 or 2 win, the bad news is that every night provides another opportunity for a loss added to a profile taking on a lot of water. Obviously the 7 Quad 1 wins is unmatched here on the bubblr. The non conference stuff is sparkling...wins over Iowa, at Creighton, Xavier neutral site. They do have league wins over Texas and Texas Tech. ISU needs to just into "serenity now" mode down the stretch. Road trips to TCU, KSU and Baylor with home tilts Oklahoma, WVU, Okie State. With 4 other Big 12 bubble schools its pretty much mayhem and each school with have their opportunity to control their own destiny. Cyclones have a bit of separation from the others but will at least have to sweep their home games or pull off an upset on the road.
4. (34) SETON HALL 14-8: Q1: 4-6, Q2: 3-1, SOS: 18/73, road/neutral: 5-5
SHU has compiled a pretty nice resume. Solid OOC scheduling and excellent overall SOS. OOC wins over Texas/Michigan with in league wins over Xavier and UConn. Their Rutgers win is looking better by the day. Just one bad loss a head scratcher a home to St Johns. Still at this juncture, they will have to take care of business while picking up a quality road win too. 3 easier home games vs Butler, Gtown and De Paul while heading on the road to face UConn, Creighton, and Xavier. Need that extra road win and 4 wins likely does it for them. Cannot afford slip ups at home or else that overall record starts to look a little wobbly. That Creighton game in the season finale may have major implications for both.
5. (19) IOWA 17-7: Q1: 0-5, Q2: 5-2, SOS 61/270, road/neutral: 4-5
Fran's bunch is loved by the metrics right now despite a lack of flesh on the profile. Certainly some big time blowouts the last few game has really buoyed their NET which is an impressive 19. Yet peeling the onion, we see ZERO Quad 1 wins and the only win vs a projected NCAA school is bubble Indiana. The wins non conference over Virginia and Utah State are just okay. With 7 games left, the schedule provides opportunities to lock the Hawkeyes into the field or play their way onto the last in/last out line. 3 A pivotal 3 game game stretch begins with a home game vs Michigan, a rescheduled trip to OSU and then back home for Michigan State. Here is where Iowa can state their case by winning two of these while taking care of vs Nebby and at Nebraska. Do that and they lock in easily. Fail to do so and the final two at Michigan and at Illinois will loom large for their at large chances.
6. (41) INDIANA 16-8: Q1: 2-5, Q2: 2-3, SOS: 49/324, road/neutral: 3-7
Hoosiers have dropped three in a row and have not looked good in doing so. A chance to get things going again by hosting Wisconsin before a road trip to Ohio State. Indiana needs to find a split here or things really could start spiraling out of control with RU and a trip to Purdue to finish the season. Its not a bad profile because they have that big win over Purdue and a good win over Ohio State plus a looking better everyday neutral site win over Notre Dame. There are no losses outside the Q2..yet. Red flags here as usual with them, the poor road mark and the poor OOC schedule. Alot to prove.
9 SEEDS
7 (68) MIAMI 18-7: Q1: 4-1, Q2: 4-4, Q3: 6-2, SOS: 62/141, road/neutral: 8-4
Despite lagging NET numbers, the Canes have put together a nice looking resume. Big road win at Wake this weekend completed a season sweep over the Deacons. Their feather in their cap win over Duke at Cameron and that is a sneaky good road mark at 6-2. Add in a rout over last 4 in UNC. Throw in a win over CUSA AQ North Texas State and thats 5 wins vs NCAA projected schools. The issue for Miami is they compiled a bunch of losses to mediocrity like the two home Q3 losses to UCF and FSU plus another loss to FSU and a loss to Virginia on the road. plus Dayton...the latter 3 just Q2 losses. Not terrible on their own but cuts their margin for error down the stretch. That is the issue. There are no quad 1 opportunities left and only 3 Q2 left and those will not move the needle. Canes did enough to make their case, its matter of not screwing it up.
8. (54) TCU 16-6: Q1: 4-4, Q2: 3-2, SOS: 41/274, road/neutral: 7-3
7 quad 1 and 2 wins but the issue here is that the Frogs have come up short against the top schools in the Big 12. 2x wins over last 4 in Oklahoma, sagging Iowa State and outside looking Kansas State are good wins but they do not make up a NCAA type resume. Positives are that non conference win over LSU and the fine road/neutral mark. No bad losses either and that shows how tough it is that every Big 12 school resides in the top 70. Frogs have a whopping 8 games still to play with 2 vs Kansas plus trips to Baylor and Texas. If they cannot get one of those TCU will have to basically take care of the other 4....ISU, WVU2x and a big home game vs Texas Tech. Will be playing their way in or out before Big 12 tourney time comes around.
9. (39) BOISE STATE 18-6: Q1: 5-1, Q2: 3-4, Q4: 5-1, SOS: 86/267, road/neutral: 9-3
Broncos were knocked out of first in the MWC in an overtime tussle with CSU. No shame in that. However even as we see 5 Quad 1 wins, I would caution those who assume all Quad 1 wins matter and 8-5 vs Q1/2 makes for a great resume. A closer look says only two of these wins are what you would consider "quality wins"..Wyoming and San Diego State and the former is Boise's only win vs a team projected in the field. It is a concern in a crowded 4 school bubble race in the MWC where there are also 3 or 4 dangerous school also that can jump and beat you. One major blemish that could potential come back and haunt them is the horrific home loss to 286 Cal Bakersfield. Crucial home stretch with games at home vs San Diego State and Nevada with trips to UNLV and a rematch with Colorado State. Better win 3 of these to stay away from the cutline.
(25) WYOMING *20-3: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 6-1, SOS: 95/183, road/neutral: 10-3
Cowboys now projected the AQ from the Mountain West and legitimately are a bubble school. Again the conference is so tight right now where games against the top 4 have so much meaning. Wyoming has wins over Boise and Colorado State but little else punch on the resume. The 2 Q1 wins are two point wins over Fresno and Utah St who both may not even get to the NIT. They were on the road as was their biggest non conference win over Grand Canyon. Note the loss to bubble Stanford. As you can see this resume lacks some depth. Cowboys have 7 games to go including trips to San Diego State and Colorado State. Those are the only Q1 opportunities and there are 2 Q2s at UNLV and home to Fresno. Would like to see them win 3 to feel comfortable as an at large.
10 SEEDS
(27) LOYOLA CHICAGO* 18-5: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 2-3, SOS: 107/44, road/neutral: 8-4
Ramblers back in a projected AQ from Missouri Valley. Their at large chances are surprisingly solid. Two things, its a clean profile with no bad losses and they showed the committee they are willing to schedule strong OOC (44) with close losses to Michigan State, a 9 point loss to Auburn, wins over San Francisco, Vandy and De Paul. 5 games left including a rematch road season finale at Northern Iowa. I think they might be able to afford one slip up but not two but if they can get through the regular season unscathed its going to become a matter of where to seed them
(26) MURRAY STATE* 21-2: Q1: 2-1, Q2: 2-0, SOS: 212/87, road/neutral 11-2
The Racers are the projected AQ from the Ohio Valley. The only real roadblock to an undefeated Ohio Valley season will be a trip to bubble Belmont. If they can get through these last 4, they will almost assuredly be receiving a bid whether or not they win the OVC tourney. Even with a loss to Belmont things could very well break their way for an at large. A decent OOC SOS of 87, losses to Auburn but road win over bubble Memphis. Nice OOC win over projected in field Chattanooga. Swept solid Morehead and of course the win over Belmont. One blip was the Q3 loss in November to East Tennessee State
10. (56) NOTRE DAME 17-7: Q1: 2-5, Q2: 3-1, SOS 51/27, road/neutral: 7-6
Irish have really turned on the jets winning 8 of their last 9 including two Q1 road wins recently over Miami and Clemson that have really beefed up their profile. Of course they have feather in their cap win over Kentucky earlier in the year and win over last 4 in UNC giving them 4 wins vs schools projected in the field. Some other positives to highlight include the 7-3 road mark, the very strong ooc sos of 27. There is a bad loss to BC and a couple of losses to bubbles Indiana, Va Tech and Texas A&M but there is nothing truly to hold them back. Key though is that there is just one Quad 1 chance left at bubble Wake, there will be a Q2 road trip to FSU that will not move the needle much. The rest of the schedule filled with mediocrity from the ACC. Potential landmines with a schedule that can only hurt them rather than help them. If they care of those 4 home games that could be enough but there are plenty of other ACC bubbles projected inside and outside the field to worry about
11. (40) WAKE FOREST 20-6: Q1: 1-3, Q2: 4-3, SOS: 104/332, road/neutral: 7-4
Despite the gaudy 20 wins, Wake may be tied with North Carolina as the biggest fraud on the good side of the bubble right now. A whopping 15 of their 20 wins are coming from Q3 and Q4. An embarrassing statistic for a ACC school. Look at that overall sos over 100 for a power 6 school and the 332 ooc rating is pure trash. They have only one win vs a team projected in the NCAA....oh look who it is...North Carolina. The Quad 1 win at Virginia Tech does not move any needles, neither does the home win over Virginia. Some of those Q2 losses to Cuse and Louisville are sketchy as hell. At best take those 3 wins and the 20-6 mark and I suppose at this moment we can place Wake in the field. All eyes turn to tomorrow at Duke followed by a home game vs Notre Dame. Win both and that might be enough to shore everything up as long as they do not screw up against the weak sisters of the ACC to finish the season. Not confident this is truly a NCAA team though.
11 SEEDS
12. (71) CREIGHTON 15-8: Q1: 3-5, Q2: 1-2, SOS: 40/235, road/neutral: 7-5
Bluejays numbers are lagging in the NET despite a pretty good resume. 3 really good conference wins...Villanova and two big road wins at UConn and Marquette. Non conference there is the neutral site win over BYU. The one point home loss to Arizona State is the only real blemish though that Q2 for now loss to Butler wasn't a good one. The real issue is that 11 of their 15 wins are coming from Q3 and Q4. The lack of Q2 wins here sort of is reflected in that poor ooc sos of 235. There are still 7 conference games to played and Creighton is hoping those games beef up the middle part of the resume. 3 homes games vs Marquette, UConn, SHU and a trip to Providence. The jury is out on them until these games get played. At least a split while taking care of the lessers in the Big East and it should be enough.
13. (51) BYU 17-8: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 4-4, Q4L 7-1 SOS: 57/91, road/neutral: 9-5
Cougars have been reeling of late. BYU suffered 4 straight losses including a hideous Quad 4 loss at Pacific and while they bounced back to beat dregs Loyola Marymount and Pepperdine on the road, these were skin of their teeth wins. And now a trip to St Mary's awaits. A win there probably stabilizes the bleeding. A loss though just continues the spiral especially with bubble San Francisco lurking out there. They close with rematches at home with Marymount and Pepperdine that do not improve the resume before the WCC tournament. There are good things here...conference wins over St Mary's and San Fran and a nice win over bubble San Diego State and Oregon. Is it enough to overcome getting badly beaten 2x by Gonzaga, a loss to Utah Valley State and that aforementioned Quad 4 loss?
FIRST FOUR 11 SEEDS
14. (81) RUTGERS 15-9: Q1: 5-3, Q2: 2-3, Q3: 2-2, Q4: 6-1, SOS: 47/298, road/neutral: 3-7
Scarlet Knights feeling themselves owning their gauntlet stretch by notching 3 Quad 1 wins including a much needed quality road win over Wisconsin this weekend. Rutgers' profile is scandalous right now. Wins over Purdue, OSU, MSU, Iowa, at Wisky....5 Quad wins, 5 wins against schools projected in the field. Unfortunately a team's resume consists of more than just Quad 1 wins, There is a reason that the NET lags at 81 and these red flags will be considered by committee as it tries to figure out what's a Rutgers. First there is the grotesque Quad 4 loss at home to Lafayette one of the worst schools you will find. Sometimes a loss could be overlooked if its the only blemish. Unfortunately for Rutgers, they took on another bad loss at UMass plus an inexplicable no show home loss to Maryland. In addition while the conference losses on the road to Northwestern, Penn State, and Minnesota are only Q2, there might be one too many of these and RU could be ruing that they could not pull one of these out. Another issue to look at is the OOC scheduling. That strength comes in at 298 which is quite poor and includes a Q2 loss at De Paul. Their best OOC win was a bland Q3 Clemson. Schedule strength and the lack of road games and lack of road wins certainly dinging RU in the NET. The Wisconsin win helps but RU sits just 3-7 on the road and did not play one neutral site game. Compared to most of the bubble, these are poor number and should be a hint to this program that they need to start amping up their schedule especially playing away from the RAC. But bac to the good. 5 Quad wins and 7-6 in Q1/2 is strong. There are 5 more Q1 opportunities as their gauntlet continues. If RU can take 3 here which would likely include winning on the road vs either bubbles Indiana and Michigan, that should be enough to cement Rutgers into the dance as it would bring them up to potentially EIGHT Quad 1 wins. Those kind of numbers will overshadow any of that nonsense in Quads 3 and 4. Resume similar to Providence back in the illfated NCAA tourney from 2020 where the Friars had a Q4 and a Q3 but finished with a flurry of Quad 1 wins that they were a projected 7 seed. The big advantage RU has is that the wins are there. Schools like UNC and Wake and even Iowa do not have the wins. RU is either going to play their way into the field or they will not. I do not foresee a backing in scenerio. 17-13 will not do it unless they can reach the Big 10 semifinals. 19 is likely the safe number for RIU so they better get that Big 10 first round game for good measure. At this moment based on this resume at this time, most bracketologists are too stubborn with their January narratives and that is why you see RU out right now. I say they are in right now but two losses this week likely bounces them out again. Do not get caught up in the overall NET number. Should RU win the games they need, the NET will take care of itself and rise above 65 by Selection Sunday
15. (37) NORTH CAROLINA 18-7: Q1: 0-7, Q2: 4-0, SOS: 50/36, road/neutral: 5-6
Touched on UNC before. UNC is on the good side of the bubble solely because of their clean profile and strong sos both overall at 50 and 36 non conference. Credit that non conference schedule but they lost to everyone...Kentucky, Purdue, Tennessee. Well they did get a win over Michigan but they are not even projected in the field nor is it a Quad 1 win. Heels have zero count them zero quad 1 wins...0-7. You do not see schools get in with that. Of course on the flip side, they have not lost to anyone outside Q1. Consider 14 of their 18 wins are outside Q1 and 2 and like I said before it really speaks to how pathetic the ACC has become. 6 games to go but only 2 Q1 opportunties...at Va Tech and at Duke and that game against the Hokies isnt going to do anything. UNC really needs to take down Duke in Coach K's last game at Cameron...good luck. Otherwise they will have to win the other 5, get to 23-8 and watch the bubble schools implode around them. They would not deserve it but this scenario would get them in.
16. (36) OKLAHOMA 14-11: Q1: 3-8, Q2: 4-2, SOS: 7/144, road/neutral: 5-7
Sooners are freefalling losing 8 of their last 10 and sit just 3 games above 500 now up to a whopping 11 losses overall. As mentioned before, every night in the Big 12 gives you Q1 and 2 shots. Most heartbreaking was their two point loss at Kansas over the weekend. If the Sooners can get through the next 3 of Texas, at ISU, at Texas Tech with at least one win then the last 3 of OSU, WVU and at KSU look doable. Thinking they need 4 of these because they cannot go into the Big 12 tourney at just 17-15 making winning the conference tourney almost a necessity. Only wins over schools projected in the field right now are Texas, Iowa State and a really good neutral site win over Arkansas. They do have wins over bubbles WVU, Kansas State and Florida so currently they are in a better space than those schools. OU really may regret that Quad 3 loss to Butler. The 8-11 mark vs Q1,2,3 is sticking out.
17.. (62) OREGON 15-8: Q1: 2-3, Q2: 3-2, Q3: 3-3, SOSL 67/30, road/neutral: 5-4
Ducks were one of the hottest teams in he nation winning 10 of 11 erasing much of the sputtering start to their season. They big time Quad 1 road wins at UCLA and USC put them back in the game. Its funny how one loss sent their momentum into a crashing halt. Oregon suffered a hideous stinker at home, a Quad 3 loss to California on Saturday. It could be overlooked if the Ducks didn't already have two Q3 home losses to Colorado and Arizona State. The Pac 12's profile is starting to sag and its not helping the Ducks. Take away the USC/UCLA road wins which by the way happened with no fans, there is just a neutral site win over for now projected AQ from AAC SMU. Against bubbles...a split with Stanford, loss to St Marys and a 32 point beatdown loss to BYU which could loom large. Pretty obvious at this point, the Ducks cannot afford another bad loss yet a four game stretch at the Arizona schools and then home to USC/UCLA should determine everything for them. Let's see what they are made of.
12 SEEDS
(45) SMU* 18-5: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 2-1, Q4: 6-1, SOS: 124/281, road/neutral: 6-5
(61) DAVIDSON* 19-4: Q1: 2-1, Q2: 2-3, SOS: 150/233, road/neutral: 11=3
NORTH TEXAS STATE*
IONA*
13 SEEDS
CHATTANOOGA*
VERMONT*
OHIO*
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE*
14 SEEDS
LIBERTY*
WAGNER*
YALE*
SEATTLE*
15 SEEDS
MONTANA STATE*
COLGATE*
TEXAS STATE*
LONG BEACH STATE*
16 SEEDS
TEXAS SOUTHERN*
CLEVELAND STATE*
LONGWOOD*
UNC WILMINGTON*
NORFOLK STATE*
NEW ORLEANS*
OUT
18.. (32) SAN FRANCISCO 20-6: Q1: 2-3, Q2: 6-2, Q4: 8-1, SOS: 98/167, road/neutral: 8-3
The once storied San Francisco program has only been to the NCAA tournament once in 40 years and finding themselves hanging just out with a month to go. Its a familiar mid major type profile. Some nice wins but not quite enough given some flaws. Split with BYU, the other quad 1 win was just Santa Clara, the two out of conference wins were good in UAB and Davidson. Yes there are 6 Q2 wins on paper but those wins over Towson and an almost Q3 ASU do not move the needle. The Gra.nd Canyon loss is teetering on becoming Quad 3. Its the stunning Quad 4 loss at home to Portland that really damaged their profile. Well this week provides a big chance at a much needed quality win at St Mary's and the following week a shot at taking down #1 Gonzaga. Obviously the latter could vault them in but the Dons could shore themselves up by topping the Gaels and taking care of San Diego and Pacific. Will be interesting to watch.
19. (35) MICHIGAN 13-10: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 3-3, SOS: 16/34, road/neutral: 5-7
Wolverines took a huge NET jump with a rousing 24 point win over Purdue but did not follow it up in their home loss to Ohio State. Wolverines who started the season so poorly are getting into dangerous territory with 10 losses still with 7 games,. The good news is that 6 of those games are Quad 1 opportunities and even the other is Rutgers. Michigan cannot absorb any real bad losses. The issue is they probably need to win 5 of these to feel any safety before the Big 10 tourney. They may have dug themselves too far a hole. The OOC schedule was brutal yet UM only came up with a win over San Diego State while losing to bubble UNC, Arizona, SHU and Q2 but bad loss to UCF. The home loss to Minnesota early in the season really smarts now. A marquee win over Purdue and at bubble Indiana is not enough to dance. The next 3 weeks will determine their fate pretty much but if they cannot take one of the next two at Iowa and Wisconsin, bring out the life support machines with Illinois, MSU and a trip to OSU to come.
20. (50) SAN DIEGO STATE 15-6: Q1: 1-5, Q2: 2-1, SOS: 88/102, road/neutral: 4-5
The Aztecs seem like the odd man out right now in the MWC race but that could easily change down the stretch. its not that they have done anything bad, 5 losses to Q1 and no bad loss, its just they have not done enough to a make a real case for a NCAA at large bid yet. A 30 point win over Colorado State certainly is big as is the neutral site win over St Mary's but that is it. 12 of their 15 wins are to Q3 and Q4. That will not cut it. Aztecs also lost to bubble Michigan, BYU, Colorado State and Boise State. Two big Quad 1 opportunities in the last 7....at Boise St and at Wyoming. They almost become must wins at this point. At Fresno State is going to be a borderline Q1 game but its not the kind of win that will materially beef up their profile. No shot at backing in, they will really have to earn their way in.
21. (77) VIRGINIA 16-9: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 4-1, Q3: 3-4, SOS: 70/137, road/neutral: 6-5
Cavilers saved their season by winning at Duke but they simply need to keep winning to overcome that horrid Q3 mark. 4 losses to the likes of Clemson and NC State but the two real bad ones were Navy and James Madison. Now to go along with that Duke win is a neutral site win over Providence. Beating two of the projected AQs from Power 6 should go along way and it will but only if the Cavs can come up big in their gauntlet in their next 3. Road trips to Va Tech and Miami and back home vs Duke. Going to need two of those and sweeping Duke plus sweeping Miami really would make a statement. The profile is willing if they can deliver.
22. (91) STANFORD 15-10: Q1: 4-7, Q2: 1-3, SOS: 25/39, road/neutral: 5-7
The loss number getting unwieldly right now and that 91 NET is not good. Yet the Cardinal do have some quality wins here. A sweep of USC, a win over last team in Oregon and a nice neutral site with over MWC AQ Wyoming. While losses to Washington and Colorado are not good losses, they still count as Q2 so they have not lost to anyone beyond Q2 but 5-10 in Q1/2 needs help. Stanford will only get one real chance at a quality win and that will be at Arizona. Almost a must win there, short of that they will likely have to win the other 4 and maybe make some hay in the always unpredictable Pac 12 tourney.
23. (64) KANSAS STATE 13-11: Q1: 5-9, Q2: 1-2, SOS: 3/143, road/neutral: 5-6
Wildcats are another with a ugly looking road mark and just 2 games above .500. 7-11 in the first Q3 quads is a red flag. Yet 5 Quad 1 wins are hard to dismiss especially with that SOS of 3. Wins over Texas and Texas Tech. Road wins in the past 10 days at TCU and Iowa State saved the season but its been well documented its almost impossible to get an at large bid unless you are 4 games above 500. Every night in the Big 12 is rough but Kansas must protect home court vs the likes of WVU, ISU, and Oklahoma given road trips to Kansas and Texas Tech remain. They will also need that Okie State road game. Get to 17-13 and win a Big 12 tourney game and thats the blueprint to get in. Otherwise they will flounder at the nether regions of the bubble.
24. (70) WEST VIRGINIA 14-10: Q1: 2-9, Q2: 4-1, SOS: 9/134, road/neutral: 3-7
Mountaineers are in a similar situation to Wildcats with the losses mounting but unlike the Cats, WVU just does not have the quality wins. Beating UConn and Iowa State is not going to get you into the NCAA tourney. WVU must come up huge down the stretch and they have 5 straight Q1 chances in the last 6. The reality is they have been terrible on the road at 1-6 and did very poorly against the top in the Big 12 thus far. Would be a big surprise to see them win in bunches vs the likes Kansas and Texas while also winning their fair share on the road to all the Big 12 bubbles. Longshot
25. (44) MEMPHIS 14-8: Q1: 4-2, Q2: 1-4, Q3: 5-2, SOS: 68/67, road/neutral: 4-6
Tigers left for dead and now become the Zombie school on the bubble after winning at Houston. However the closer look at Houston's profile means that the win may not have as much cache as one would think. Memphis does have some good things here. The win over Alabama. The wins vs St Louis and Va Tech do help the metrics. The two games that ultimately may be their killers are the losses to East Carolina and Georgia. The Tigers have no margin for error and still have 6 AAC games to go. The Quad 1 opportunities are at league leading SMU and a rematch at home with Houston. Pretty much need those games to vault them while beating everyone else. Tall task but doable.
26. (47) BELMONT 21-5: Q1: 1-2, Q2: 2-3, SOS: 163/47, road/neutral: 12-4
Trying to make a case for the Bruins but its a longshot. They do not have any loss outside Q2 but find themselves behind the 8 ball in the Ohio Valley race. Murray State has a distinct edge right now if both were bubbles meaning that rematch later this year is a must win for them. There are nice wins for a midmajor...St Louis, Iona, Chatanooga...the latter two are projected AQs. Stay tuned
27. (49) FLORIDA 16-9: Q1: 1-6, Q2: 3-2, Q4: 7-1, SOS: 48/205, road/neutral: 5-6
Gators have floated out of the field because its becoming evident there is very little on its resume. One neutral site win over Ohio State is nowhere near enough and thats all they got. Throw in that Quad 4 loss to Texas Southern (albeit a projected AQ). Note a non conference loss to bubble Oklahoma. 5 games to play and there is a path. 3 home games vs Auburn, Arkansas and Kentucky, two of those plus winning at least 2 of 3 on the road vs middling SEC schools would put them in a better situation but seems to be reach right now.
28, (53) MISSISSIPPI STATE 14-10: Q1: 1-7, Q2: 2-1, Q3: 5-2, SOS: 45/195, road/neutral: 2-8
Tigers did not get one win in their recent gauntlet of 5 of 6 vs Q1 schools. That was their window to make a push and now the lights are flickering with 7 to go and the only shots at quality win are on the road at Alabama and hosting Auburn. Home wins over Alabama and Arkansas are not backed up by anything else especially non conference where there are Q3 losses to Minnesota and Louisville. Also losses to bubbles Colorado State and Florida. This is not going to happen.
29. (59) DAYTON 17-8: Q1: 3-2, Q2: 3-3, Q4: 9-3, SOS: 121/127, road/neutral: 6-4
Flyers might have the closest profile to Rutgers but much worse. Start with the gold star win over Big 12 leader Kansas on a neutral site. Add in a neutral site win over NCAA projected Miami. Sprinkle in nice wins over bubbles Belmont, St Louis, Virginia Tech and a 30 point win over VCU. Not bad for an A 10 school. Alas something is wrong here and its 3 Quad 4 losses that are actually worse than they look...all at home to the likes of U Mass Lowell, Lipscomb, Austin Peay. That Q2 loss to George Mason isnt good either. Unlike Rutgers, the Flyers do not have the opportunity to overcome such bad losses with just a home game to Davidson to beef up the profile. The good news is Dayton can legitimately win the A10 tourney and thats probably what they will have to do.
30. (38) VIRGINIA TECH 15-10: Q1: 0-5, Q2: 4-3, Q3: 5-2, SOS: 82/131, road/neutral: 6-7
No quad 1 wins and the net at 38 seems to be a big outlier given whats in this profile. Hokies at least staying on life support after reeling off 5 in a row against the dregs of the ACC. There are no Quad 1 wins, only one win vs the field Notre Dame. Many losses to fellow bubbles...Dayton, Memphis, Wake, Virginia, UNC, Miami. Plus two Q3 losses add to the despair. There is no case in any universe to make for this team unless they win their last 6 to end the year which means beating Virginia tonight, UNC the following game and then winning at Miami, the latter would still be their only Q1 win.
31. (76) VANDERBILT 13-11: Q1: 2-7, Q2: 1-2 Q3: 5-2, SOS: 36/192, road/neutral: 5-5
Despite the dangerous overall mark at 13-11 which admittedly is a problem, this profile is willing if the Commodores can get a couple of more quality wins. There is a road win at Arkansas, a home win over LSU and neutral site win over BYU. 3 Quad 1 opportunities remain...at Auburn, Alabama and at Missisissippi State. Tall order to get them all but if they get 2 and take care of the middling bunch they will be in position to make their case in the SEC tourney. The losses to So Carolina and Temple are regrettable.
32. (90) SAINT BONAVENTURE 14-7: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 3-3, SOS: 87/93, road/neutral: 6-5
Every year some school comes from nowhere to make a late push and this year its the Bonnies. Just knocked off St Louis tonight for the 2nd straight game to add another Q2. Wins on a neutral court over Marquette and Boise. The sweep of St Louis, a win over VCU. The loss to Northern Iowa is Q3 but thats not really a bad loss.. There still is a long way to go given the NET is 90. 4 home games and a road games against dregs which they can feast on plus a Q1 opportunity at VCU. It might be asking alot for them to win them all but its likely the Bonnies are heard from come A10 tourney time. Do not count them out.
33. (67) VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 4-4, SOS: 83/160, road/neutral: 8-3
Rams are hanging out around the nether regions of the bubble, Hurray for road wins. The Rams are an impressive 7-1 on the road with wins at Davidson, Dayton, and Vandy. Ultimately though just too many losses to teams they need to beat...Davidson, Dayton, St Bonnies, Chatanooga and Wagner. I suppose if they can win out against mostly bottom feeder and pick up two solid Q2 type wins vs St Bonnies/St Louis and then make a push to the A10 finals, they will float into the mix on Selection Sunday.
34. (46) WASHINGTON STATE 14-9: Q1: 0-3, Q2: 4-2, Q3: 6-3, Q4: 4-1, SOS: 126/297, road/neutral: 5-3
The Colgate of the NET this year. Its a pretty garbage resume that somehow has a 46 NET despite 3 Q3 losses and a Q4 loss. They have not beat one damn NCAA projected school. Next 3 are all on the road at Oregon, UCLA, and USC and they will have to win ALL of them. Don't hold your breath kids.
35. (73) TEXAS A&M 14-10: Q1: 0-7, Q2: 2-1, Q3: 5-2, SOS: 46/266, road/neutral: 5-6
Aggies were once 14-2. They are now 14-10. Nuff said. Wins over Arkansas and Notre Dame keep them in play but would need a complete reversal to win out their last 6. Will not revisit unless they get the next 3 vs Florida, at Vandy and Georgia.
36. (52) UAB 17-6: Q1: 2-1, Q2: 2-2, Q3: 4-2, Q4: 9-1, SOS: 189/207, road/neutral: 5-5
Somehow there were bracketologists putting them in the field...wtf? Just because they won at North Texas and St Louis??? The Q3 loss to Old Dominion, their 2nd puts an end to that talk. The good news is that they are going to be one of the favorites to win the CUSA tournament.
37. (60) SAINT LOUIS 16-8: Q1: 1-3, Q2: 2-3, Q3: 4-2, SOS: 118/84, road/neutral: 6-4
Bilikens are officially done after losing for the 2nd straight time to St Bonaventure. Only win of note was Boise...buh bye.
LAST FOUR BYES: NOTRE DAME, WAKE FOREST, CREIGHTON, BYU
LAST FOUR IN: OREGON, OKLAHOMA, NORTH CAROLINA, RUTGERS
FIRST FOUR OUT: SAN FRANCISCO, MICHIGAN, SAN DIEGO STATE, VIRGINIA
NEXT FOUR OUT: STANFORD, KANSAS STATE, WEST VIRGINIA, MEMPHIS
Yes folks, its a projected first four matchup of Oregon vs Rutgers, let the chips fall where they may.
