Its that time again. First outlook will just breakdown the NCAA situation by conference. Full pecking order will not start until next week. RPI numbers from 2/20. Bear with the mistakes, I didnt proofread
One bid conferences
AMERICA EAST: Vermont
ATLANTIC SUN: Florida Gulf Coast
BIG SKY: Montana
BIG SOUTH: Winthrop
BIG WEST: UC Santa Barbara
COLONIAL: Charleston
CUSA: Middle Tennessee State
HORIZON: Wright State
IVY: Harvard
MAAC: Rider
MIDAMERICAN: Buffalo
MEAC: Savannah State
MVC: Loyola
NORTHEAST: Wagner
OHIO VALLEY: Murray State
PATRIOT: Bucknell
SOUTHERN: E Tennessee State
SOUTHLAND: Nicholls State
SUN BELT: Louisiana
SWAC: Southern
SUMMIT: South Dakota State
WAC: New Mexico State
AMERICAN
Autobid: CINCINNATI
Lock: WICHITA STATE
Bubble
(19) HOUSTON 21-5: Cougars look all but in barring an unlikely collapse down the last 4 conference game against a middling bunch. 6 quadrant 1 wins is very good includes non conference wins over Providence and Arkansas plus league wins over Cincy and Wichita State. That loss to Drexel and the non conference sos of 243 will likely not come into play if they take care of business.
ATLANTIC COAST
Autobid: VIRGINIA
Lock: DUKE, CLEMSON, NORTH CAROLINA
Bubble
(32) MIAMI 19-8: Canes rebounded from a costly home loss to Syracuse by gaining an importan Q1 win at Notre Dame. While it may not seem like a quality win, with the new NCAA selection criteria which counts road wins vs top 75 teams now as equal to a home win over top 30 schools, it now gives Miami a 4th quad win to go along with previous conference wins at NC St, at Va Tech. The neutral site win over likely CUSA champ Mid Tenn State is a very good one. Still with so many bubbles in the ACC and so many similar profiles around the bubble in general, They are just 0-3 vs top 4 in league a road trip to UNC to come. Canes would do themselves well to take care of business vs BC and Va Tech at home to feel secure.
(38) SYRACUSE 18-9: Seems like the Orange are finding themselves hovering around the bubble every year. This particular year they do have a strong SOS of 28 on their side and a non conference SOS of 21. Yet only MAC leader Buffalo is their OOC win of note and do note their loss to bubble St Bonaventure. Cuse got a key Quad 1 win at Miami over the weekend giving them only their third in that group. 4-3 in Q2. Conference wise they have benefitted from only playing Virginia of the top 4 but that will change...Orange have a brutal finish of UNC, at Duke, at BC and Clemson. Pretty sure that they will have to split these games to remain in good position.
(45) FLORIDA STATE 19-8: Seminoles solidified their position after that win last week over top 10 rpi Clemson. Now 5-4 in Quad 1 games and that includes a win over UNC and a non conference road win at Florida, albeit that game looks less impressive. Still there are wins vs Louisville, Cuse andVa Tech. The FSU non conference SOS of 306 does raise eyebrows. Still they appear in pretty solid shape as long as they do not implode down the stretch. Road games at NCSt and Clemson will be tough but holding serve vs BC will be the key game they need to win.
(52) LOUISVILLE 18-9: Cards are in a precarious spot right now due to a Q1 mark of 2-7 and just 1-2 vs Q2...thats a combined 3-9 which raises major questions. Their wins are just at FSU, at ND, and Va Tech. That just does not cut it. UL will need more in their final 4 games...at Duke, at Va Tech, Virginia, and at NC St...a win against one of the top 2 in the ACC is almost mandatory at this point, but if not they can at least hover near the bubble by winning the other 2 which still gives them two more Q1 wins.
(55) VIRGINIA TECH 19-8: Hokies have some decent stuff...4-5 in Q1 and 4 more wins in Q2 so you can see compared to UL they clearly have a better numbers. The gift that will keep giving is the win over Virginia but the UNC and neutral site win over Washington also help. One issue with them is the non conference SOS of 327...that is a really bad number and its the kind of thing that could haunt them if they do not finish strong...its not an easy finish either...while they get Clemson, Louisville, Duke and then at Miami, Hokies cannot afford anything worse than a split or they become quite bubblicious.
(61) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 18-9: Pack have some really good wins...at UNC, Clemson, at Cuse, neutral site wins over Arizona and Penn State. 5-6 in Q1 is very strong but they do have 2 Q3 losses OOC vs UNC Greensboro and Northern Iowa plus their is that sketchy non conference SOS of 274. Here is another ACC bubble that can distinguish themselves if they can finish strong. Last 4 includes 3 at home...BC, FSU, at GT and UL. A split will still probably put them on the right side of the bubble heading into the ACC tourney.
(68) NOTRE DAME 15-12 & (94) BOSTON COLLEGE 16-11: Longshot hopes for both, would likely have to win out regular season to put themselves in any serious discussion
ATLANTIC 10
Autobid: RHODE ISLAND
Bubble
(27) SAINT BONAVENTURE 20-6: A10 has only one bubble team this year in such a down year for the conference save for URI. On a 8 game win streak, the Bonnies got that needed win over URI last week to keep them in the game. Now 3-2 vs Q1, the others at Cuse and at Buffalo., they also have some nice Q2 wins over Vermont and Maryland...4-2 in Q2. The non conference SOS of 53 and overall sos of 89 is solid for a high mid major. Big obstacle for them on their resume is the bad losses that came in bunches in January. In addition to the opening season nightmare loss to Niagara, you have the loss to St Joes and at Dayton which is tenuously still a Q2 loss but is close to giving the Bonnies 3 Q3 losses. They simply cannot afford any slip ups down the stretch in the weak A10....which means taking care of landmines at VCU and avoiding the season sweep by Davidson.
BIG EAST
Autobid: VILLANOVA
Lock: XAVIER
Bubble
(25) SETON HALL 18-9: Pirates stopped the bleeding of a 4 game losing streak by holding serve vs De Paul but must prepare for the gauntlet in its final 4 games. Games at PC and SJU followed by home games vs Nova and Butler. The Pirates will either play their way into the tourney or out of the tourney. At 15-3, the Pirates look golden after building a solid resume with non conference wins over Louisville and Texas Tech and then picking up a road win at Butler. Yet the schedule got tougher and they crumbled big time including a home loss to Marquette and a teetering on the edge to a Q3 loss at Georgetown. Remember SHU also has a nasty Q3 loss to 208 Rutgers early in the season 3-6 vs Q1 is just okay at this point. So in league while they have 3 wins against other NCAA bubble teams, they have done little to distinguish themselves at only 7-7. Desperation time in South Orange, will they be able to right the sinking ship?
(36) CREIGHTON 18-8: Bluejays also starting to sink losing 3 of their last 4 and barely got by De Paul in their lone win. Like SHU have failed to come up with a big conference win...beating SHU, PC. Butler once does not move the needle. However they do have some solid OOC wins over UCLA and bubble Nebraska. 3-7 vs Q1 is just okay but the 6-1 mark vs Q2 is pretty solid. Overall the SOS is decent at 49 but the non conference SOS of 249 is a negative. Last 3 provides opportunity to beef up this middling resume....at Butler, Nova, DePaul, at Marquette...probably need 3 of these to be on the right side of the bubble.
(37) PROVIDENCE 17-10: Friars have been up and down all year. Wins over Nova and Xavier and losses at Umass and home to De Paul. Seems like every year there is a team hovering around the bubble like them. Still those wins over the top 2 in league go a looooooong way. Friars are now 5-6 in Q1 games. The SOS is a fine 21..neutral site win over bubble Washington and OOC losses to URI and Houston are not bad at all. Just need to be careful down the stretch...SHU, at Gtown, at Xavier, SJU...take 3 and they probably lock in, a split leaves them hovering around the bubble and anything worse puts them in some trouble.
(39) BUTLER 18-10: Bulldogs did much of their work early in the season when they knocked off Ohio State and then took down Villanova. Since then they have come up short against the top of the league with most of their wins against the bottom half of the league. Still the SOS is strong at 23, the 3-8 vs Q1 and 5-1 vs Q2 are okay. The win over Providence last week was a big one to keep them in the game but the thinking is with so many BE bubbles all grouped together, there is more to do in the final 3 of Creighton, at SJU and at SHU...two of 3 could do the trick for them giving that feather in their cap Nova win.
(57) MARQUETTE 15-11: Golden Eagles are significantly behind all the other BE bubbles. 4-8 in Q1. they are not going to be able to hang their hat on sweeping SHU and a wins at PC and Creighton to get them dancing. MU will need to sweep their last 4 but only one of them Creighton will be considered a quality win meaning they will have to make a very deep...most likely BE finals to land on the right side of the bubble.
BIG TEN
Autobid: MICHIGAN STATE
Lock: PURDUE, OHIO STATE, MICHIGAN
Bubble
(60) NEBRASKA 20-9: Cornhuskers are the most talked about and the most controversial bubble team this year. A gaudy 11-5 mark in the Big 10 good enough for a tie for 4th right now and 20 wins already win 2 left to play. In most years that would easily be good enough, well this isnt most years. The Big 10 is down...way down. The bottom half of the league is pure trash and the poor scheduling by the entire league and the inability to pick up a signficant amount of quality wins out of the league is hurting the entire conference rpi profile. However Nebby themselves are short on quality wins. Just 1-6 in Quadrant 1 and a paltry 3-2 in Q2. Tough to hang your hat on making the tournament by just beating Michigan at home and racking up wins against the likes of bottom feeding Rutgers and Wisconsin. The 6 game win streak was helping until it came crashing down with a Quad 3 loss to Illinois. Note OOC, the Huskers mostly failed...lost to St Johns, UCF, bubble Creighton and of course the near miss vs Kansas. Big negative is that 254 OOC SOS. There is a lot for them to overcome given most of the power 5 schools that they are competing for a bid have more quality wins and have played a tougher schedule. Only 2 games left and while one is against fellow bubble PSU, that wouldnt even give them another Q1 win they desperately need. So the Huskers need to absolutely win those two and probably knock off Michigan State in the Big 10 semis to solidify their spot in the field, otherwise they are leaving it to the mercy of the committee to overlook their warts.
(76) PENN STATE 19-10: Despite a worse rpi and worse conference mark, the Nittany Lions are actually slightly better positioned than Nebraska with their resume albeit they too have major work to do. Interesting to see that PSU's Ken Pom rating is 25 which is substantially better than their rpi. This is the first year that other rankings beside rpi will be officially on a schools profile sheet. Most of the times those rankings are similar to each other but I make note of PSU because of the vast difference which could factor in when the committee looks at their profile. PSU is just 2-5 vs Q1 and 2-3 vs Q2...a bit better than Nebby because they have the sweep over Ohio State. Again they came up short OOC in wins(best win Montana) and in scheduling (261). While the Rider loss may look bad, its actually not considering the Broncs look like MAAC champs but more costly were home losses to Wisconsin and Minnesota. Lions missed an opportunity by losing a close one at Purdue but games this week vs Michigan and at Nebraska provide two huge chances for Q1 wins. Win them both and they are actually looking pretty good heading into the Big 10 tourney. Lose both and they likely need to win the whole B10 tourney to get in. Split them and it looks like they might need a trip to the finals to move off the bubble and into the field.
(59) MARYLAND 18-11: Suppose we can mention the Terps here since the rpi is 59 but with a 0-9 mark vs Quadrant 1 and 2-2 vs Q2 the work just is not there. Nothing short of beating Michigan to close out the season and then getting to the Big 10 finals even gets them into consideration and even at that point, the Terps are a long shot.
BIG TWELVE
Autobid: TEXAS TECH
Lock: KANSAS, WEST VIRGINIA
Bubble
(22) TCU 18-9: Frogs are slumping with 4 losses in their last 6 games which has dropped their overall Big 12 mark to just 6-8. In a crowded Big 12 bubble, they will likely need to add a couple of quality wins down the stretch...Road games vs ISU/TT and at home vs Bay/KSU. Probably need a split of those game as they cannot afford that 7-11 conference mark even though supposedly its not a looked at criteria. 3-7/3-2 in Q1 and Q2 is okay but could be better. Some nice OOC wins tourney bound Nevada, So Dakota and bubble St Bonnies. In league though with just wins over WVU Texas. and at Baylor is where they have fallen short. Note the SOS of 13 is a big positive here
(35) OKLAHOMA 16-11: Sooners are teetering on the brink of playing themselves out of at large consideration. Losers of 6 straight and 9 of 11, they sit at just 6-9 in the Big 10. Have to win at least 2 of 3 to avoid that dreaded 7-11 conference mark which I dont think can be overcome. To make matters worse their record mark of 2-8 is a big red flag right now. The poor finish is a shame because the first half of the season has the numbers of a top 16 team. SOS of 12....6-7 vs Quad 1 schools. Wins over Wichita State, USC, league leading Texas Tech, a sweep of TCU and Kansas. Again how you finish isnt a criteria, no one can take away what the Sooners already amassed, its all about writing the ship for a couple of games. Finishing with Kansas St, at Baylor, and ISU. A sweep would lock them in and two out of 3 is probably enough to keep them on the right side of the bubble..but all bets off if they only get one more.
(47) BAYLOR 16-10: Bears seemed dead in the water a few weeks ago but have resuscitated their chances with wins over Texas Tech and Kansas as well as Texas on the road. From 2-7 in the Big 12 to 7-7 but still need to at least split those last 4 of WVU, at TCU, Oklahoma, and at KSU....a fairly tough stretch for them. They are up to 4-8 now vs Q1 but only 2-2 vs Q2 and their road mark of 2-8 needs work. They have a win over Creighton non conference but lost to fellow bubble Florida. Still there is no truly bad loss here on the resume so its just about taking care of business.
(53) TEXAS 16-11: Solid resume here, the only drawback is that 6-8 conference mark which they probably need to split the last 4 to avoid being 4 games under 500 in league. 5-8 vs Quadrant 1 is strong and that includes wins over Butler and Alabama non conference and Texas Tech, TCU and OU 2x. Yes 4 of 5 losses but again splitting those last 4 of at KSU, OSU, at Kansas, WVU. SOS of 19 plus no loss outside of Q1&2 are positives here
(56) KANSAS STATE 19-8: Wildcats do not have any stellar wins but have built a solid profile based on beating alot of the bubble teams in the Big 12. The 3-6 mark vs Quad 1 shows that but they are 5-1 vs Quad 2. Their best OOC was Georgia and its their OOC scheduling which is dragging their overall rpi numbers down....its 320 and thats pretty poor which also puts their overall sos down to 72. Still with road conference wins at Baylor and at Texas and winning at home vs TCU and Oklahoma, KSU has put themselves in position but like their fellow conference mates need to at least hold serve down the stretch...Tex/Bay at home and OU/TCU on the road. Need to split these games to maintain themselves on the right side of the bubble.
(105) OKLAHOMA STATE 15-12: Wins of late over Kansas and WVU keep them in the conversation for now but that overall SOS of 105 because of the 279 non conference SOS makes them a longshot. 3-9 vs Quad 1 and only 2-3 vs Q2, they do not have any real bad losses but at 5-9 in league, nothing less than winning 3 of their next 4 keeps them in contention. Home games vs Texas Tech and Kansas sandwiched by road trips to Texas and Iowa State. They will be playing their way in or out in the next two weeks. They simply need more wins.
MOUNTAIN WEST
Autobid: NEVADA
Bubble
(51) BOISE STATE 20-6: Broncs look in real trouble now after a costly loss at Utah State and then failing to get a needed quality win against league leading Nevada. The numbers just do not work for them....0-2 in Q1, an okay 5-3 vs Q2 but the best win is just MVC leading Loyola. Its a down year for the MWC so they are not able to pick any wins of note there and the SOS of 121 and non conference SOS of 236 just does not work for them. At this point all they can do is win out their last 3 and win 2 in MWC tourneyto make the final and hope that 25-7 can be enough for the selection committee to throw them a bone...longshot at best.
PACIFIC 12
Autobid: ARIZONA
Bubble
(28) ARIZONA STATE 19-7: ASU is probably a whisker from lock status. It would take complete collapse like losing their last 3 and then losing first round Pac 12 game for them to miss out. They just did too much good early on in the seasons. Wins over Xavier on a neutral court and Kansas on the road...are you kidding me..throw in another neutral site win over bubble Kansas St. Unfortunately the Pac 10 is bit down as a whole yet again. Conference wins over UCLA and USC are nice but those schools are hanging around the last 4 in/last 4 out line themselves....so the Quad 1 of 3-3 is all non conference wins...they are 4-3 in Quad 2. The only negatives here are they didnt beat Arizona at all and their overall conference mark of 7-7 would come into play if they dont win again and go 7-11.
(42) USC 19-9: Trojans may have a nice rpi but a closer look shows there is some serious lack of flesh on this resume. OOC wins on a neutral courts vs likely NCAA participants New Mexico State and Middle Tennessee State are solid but you cannot make a NCAA case from a power conference based only on these wins. Beyond that there is just a win over wrong side of the bubble Utah. They went 0-4 vs the top schools in the league and benefitted from a weaker conference slate. 2-5 in Quadrant 1 and 3-3 vs quadrant 2 needs more. Some opportunity in final 3 with trips to Utah and UCLA opportunities to pick up quadrant 1 wins. They will need both and ps that quadrant 4 loss to awful Princeton is looming large.
(48) UCLA 19-8: Bruins are better situated than USC due to their big win at Arizona. Just 2-3 vs Q1 and 3-5 vs Q2, they too need some work to bolster their resume. Their win over Kentucky isnt as impressive as it once looked but the UCLA has taken business against the likes of Washington, USC and Utah thus far. UCLA has a bad loss at Oregon State and the road hasnt been kind to them, just 2-5 and now the final 3 are on the road...at Utah, at Colorado, at USC..taking 2 of those should keep them on the right side of the bubble but anything less than that sets them for bubble trouble heading into the Pac 12 tourney.
(49) WASHINGTON 18-9: Huskies have that big win over Kansas to point to OOC but also did damage in league beating Arizona, ASU, UCLA and winning at USC. Thats some good stuff to put them at 4-3 vs Quad 1 however they are just 1-4 vs Quad 2 losing to a bunch of middling to bottom league schools most notably getting swept at the Oregon schools. Unfortunately their final 4 gives them no shots to add to their Q1 total and only one shot at a Q2 win...at Stanford. Huskies would do well to win them all but 3 of 4 should keep them will keep them in play going into the Pac 12 tourney. The SOS of 35 is something that will help them vs a few other bubble schools.
(50) UTAH 17-9: Utes going to need more. They have a nice OOC win over Missouri, did sweep Washington and won at ASU so they are 3-6 vs Q1 but only 2-2 vs Q2. Their hopes are going to rest with their next 2 home games...USC and UCLA, likely need to take both and they lost to both earlier in the year, but note those are Quadrant 2 game not 1. They will also need to avoid a trip up at Colorado and do some damage in the Pac 12 tourney...not impossible.
(77) COLORADO 15-12: They have wins over Arizona and ASU but 4 Quadrant 3 losses and 1 Quad 4 loss are too much to overcome. Lets revisit only if they can sweep last 3 of USC, UCLA, and Utah.
SOUTHEASTERN
Autobid: AUBURN
Lock: TENNESSEE
Bubble
(18) KENTUCKY 18-9: Cats looked like a lock until a 4 game losing streak raised some questions. Granted it was a brutal stretch of games for them and they stopped the bleeding by beating Alabama. Last 4 have some toughies in there but games where they can lock in with wins..at Arky, at Florida, Mizzou and Ole Miss. KY is probably fine with a split in these games. 3-7 vs Quadrant 1 is just okay but the 8-2 mark vs Quad 2 is impressive. SOS of 3 is sparkling. The wins certainly appear to be there...at WVU, Va Tech, UL, A&M.
(21) TEXAS A&M 17-10: there is so much to like here with the Aggies except for the 6-8 league mark which keeps them from lock status for now. Aggies have 7..count em 7 Quad 1 wins...7-8 there. Some fine OOC win...at USC, Buffalo and WVU, plus another solid win neutral over Penn State. In league though they struggled, losing at one time 5 straight and 7 of 9 failing to beat many of the top dogs in the league. However they did recover to win at Auburn and then Kentucky and Arkansas at home. That stabilized things so as long as the Aggies can split those final 4 and avoid being 7-11 in league they should be okay....Miss St, at Vandy, at Ga, and Bama. Note that SOS of 6 both overall and non conference is going to pay dividends for them, it already has with their strong overall rpi of 21 despite the 10 losses.
(24) MISSOURI 17-9: Tigers have quietly put together a solid resume. 5-7 vs Quad 1 and another 5 victories vs Quad 2, they've done most of their work in league with the biggest OOC win only at UCF. In league, they beat Tennessee, A&M, Kentucky, and at Bama. Yet it seems like something is missing. Tigers appear to be in good shape but it wouldnt hurt to grab another quality win in the final 4 games either at Kentucky or home to Arkansas. Not a whole lot of negative save for the nasty loss at Illinois earlier in the year.
(26) ARKANSAS 19-8: Hogs picked up their 5th Q1 win with a big victory over Texas A&M. Arky has some good SEC wins...Tennessee, Missouri to go along with A&M but the on the road they have come up short...just the win at Georgia...Overall the road mark is 2-6. Their best OOC win was a win over fading Oklahoma. Hard to pick out a negative, their only loss outside Q1 was to LSU at 75. Like some other SEC bubbles they just need to at least go 500 in their last 4...KY, at Bama, Aub, at Mizzou offer opportunities to vault them in but it clearly is their most brutal stretch for them, they do not want to play themselves out of the tourney either.
(34) ALABAMA 17-10: Tide has 6 Quad 1 games which usually should be good in this spot but the overall record is sort of middling so they need to make sure they pick up a win or two down the stretch, OOC wins over URI and Oklahoma are solid. Bama has done most of their damage at home..good wins over Tennessee, Auburn and A&M, with just a 2-6 road mark the most notable win at Florida. SOS is 14 and their only bad loss was to Minnesota who was a solid team before their implosion. Final 4 is tough...at Aub, Arky, Fla, and at A&M so they still want to rack up as many quality wins as possible to make things academic.
(64) FLORIDA 17-10: Gators did a lot of good earlier in the year but some baffling losses have raised questions about their at large status. Should they really be losing to the likes of SC, Miss St and getting swept by Georgia? Those are the games where if they took care of business, they would easily be a lock. They are 6-3 vs Quad 1 and 5-6 vs Quad 2. Strong OOC wins vs Gonzaga and Cincinnati. Big time league road wins over A&M, Missouri, KY and home win over Arky. Note a later season win over Baylor now looks better as well. Gators get a gauntlet down the stretch though where they will need to reprove themselves despite their impressive earlier wins...at Tenn, Aub, at Bama, and KY. Cannot afford to drop them all and might need 2 to be safe.
(66) GEORGIA 15-11: Bulldogs came into last week losers of 8 of 10 and on the verge of disappearing into the ether. Instead they not only beat Florida on the road but came back home to beat Tennessee. Those two wins bolstered their Quad 1 record to 5-7 which is pretty solid. If they can do some damage in their last 4, they will be right there when all is said and done. Games at Tennessee and home to A&M loom large as shots to make their case. They have that non conference win over St Marys and on the road at Marquette. The SOS though just 177 non conference is something that has been holding them back all year as does having so many losses.
(71) MISSISSIPPI STATE 18-8: Bulldogs clearly have alot of work to do. They are easily way behind all of the other SEC bubbles. Big red flag....1-7 road mark and going 16-1 at home...the sheer number of reliance on home games will be looked at as a negative by the selection committee and then getting only 1 when they did hit the road makes matters worse. The non conference SOS is an awful 310 and the overall SOS just comes in at 105. 2-6 vs Q1...Arky and Mizzou. Not good that their best OOC was Dayton. Down the stretch they will not only need to win on the road vs A&M and LSU but also get a win over Tennessee as well as SC at home. They have a lot to prove.
(75) LSU 15-11: Tigers have 7 Quad 1 wins so they have to be considered even with the woeful overall mark and conference record. OOC wins of Michigan and Houston..check.....Quality road wins in league over Arky and A&M..check...completing sweep of Arky and A&M..check...additional win over Missouri as well. Tigers just have a lot of losses so they have to overcome that...bad loss to Stephen F Austin, losses to ND/Marq, losses to Vandy...Tigers just got hit with a brutal mid season stretch of SEC games...and for the final 4 that lightens up, so if they can take 3 of those or all of them, thats when those 7 Q1 wins come into play. LSU does not need the quality wins, they have them, they just need to take care of business against the lesser of Vandy, at Ga, at SC, Miss St. Its quite doable for them.
WEST COAST
Autobid: GONZAGA
Bubble
(31) ST MARY'S 25-4: Gaels could have all but wrapped up the WCC but they couldnt complete the series sweep of Gonzaga at home but they compounded the problem by losing at San Fransisco last week. STMU is still most likely well inside the bubble but that loss definitely prevents them from locking in. Gaels probably just need to avoid a slip up in final 2 against WCC bottom feeders to lock in before the WCC tourney begins. While as usual the resume is thin for them...1-0 in Q1 and 2-2 in Q2. The best win other than Gonzaga is BYU 2x, we have been down this road before with them and this conference. NCAA has proven very willing with a 2nd bid for this league and quite frankly they could also just as easily beat Gonzaga in the WCC finals. The latter is pretty much a lock if they do not win the WCC autobid.
LAST 4 IN: UCLA, WASHINGTON, KANSAS STATE, BAYLOR
LAST 4 OUT: SYRACUSE, LOUISVILLE, USC, PENN STATE
One bid conferences
AMERICA EAST: Vermont
ATLANTIC SUN: Florida Gulf Coast
BIG SKY: Montana
BIG SOUTH: Winthrop
BIG WEST: UC Santa Barbara
COLONIAL: Charleston
CUSA: Middle Tennessee State
HORIZON: Wright State
IVY: Harvard
MAAC: Rider
MIDAMERICAN: Buffalo
MEAC: Savannah State
MVC: Loyola
NORTHEAST: Wagner
OHIO VALLEY: Murray State
PATRIOT: Bucknell
SOUTHERN: E Tennessee State
SOUTHLAND: Nicholls State
SUN BELT: Louisiana
SWAC: Southern
SUMMIT: South Dakota State
WAC: New Mexico State
AMERICAN
Autobid: CINCINNATI
Lock: WICHITA STATE
Bubble
(19) HOUSTON 21-5: Cougars look all but in barring an unlikely collapse down the last 4 conference game against a middling bunch. 6 quadrant 1 wins is very good includes non conference wins over Providence and Arkansas plus league wins over Cincy and Wichita State. That loss to Drexel and the non conference sos of 243 will likely not come into play if they take care of business.
ATLANTIC COAST
Autobid: VIRGINIA
Lock: DUKE, CLEMSON, NORTH CAROLINA
Bubble
(32) MIAMI 19-8: Canes rebounded from a costly home loss to Syracuse by gaining an importan Q1 win at Notre Dame. While it may not seem like a quality win, with the new NCAA selection criteria which counts road wins vs top 75 teams now as equal to a home win over top 30 schools, it now gives Miami a 4th quad win to go along with previous conference wins at NC St, at Va Tech. The neutral site win over likely CUSA champ Mid Tenn State is a very good one. Still with so many bubbles in the ACC and so many similar profiles around the bubble in general, They are just 0-3 vs top 4 in league a road trip to UNC to come. Canes would do themselves well to take care of business vs BC and Va Tech at home to feel secure.
(38) SYRACUSE 18-9: Seems like the Orange are finding themselves hovering around the bubble every year. This particular year they do have a strong SOS of 28 on their side and a non conference SOS of 21. Yet only MAC leader Buffalo is their OOC win of note and do note their loss to bubble St Bonaventure. Cuse got a key Quad 1 win at Miami over the weekend giving them only their third in that group. 4-3 in Q2. Conference wise they have benefitted from only playing Virginia of the top 4 but that will change...Orange have a brutal finish of UNC, at Duke, at BC and Clemson. Pretty sure that they will have to split these games to remain in good position.
(45) FLORIDA STATE 19-8: Seminoles solidified their position after that win last week over top 10 rpi Clemson. Now 5-4 in Quad 1 games and that includes a win over UNC and a non conference road win at Florida, albeit that game looks less impressive. Still there are wins vs Louisville, Cuse andVa Tech. The FSU non conference SOS of 306 does raise eyebrows. Still they appear in pretty solid shape as long as they do not implode down the stretch. Road games at NCSt and Clemson will be tough but holding serve vs BC will be the key game they need to win.
(52) LOUISVILLE 18-9: Cards are in a precarious spot right now due to a Q1 mark of 2-7 and just 1-2 vs Q2...thats a combined 3-9 which raises major questions. Their wins are just at FSU, at ND, and Va Tech. That just does not cut it. UL will need more in their final 4 games...at Duke, at Va Tech, Virginia, and at NC St...a win against one of the top 2 in the ACC is almost mandatory at this point, but if not they can at least hover near the bubble by winning the other 2 which still gives them two more Q1 wins.
(55) VIRGINIA TECH 19-8: Hokies have some decent stuff...4-5 in Q1 and 4 more wins in Q2 so you can see compared to UL they clearly have a better numbers. The gift that will keep giving is the win over Virginia but the UNC and neutral site win over Washington also help. One issue with them is the non conference SOS of 327...that is a really bad number and its the kind of thing that could haunt them if they do not finish strong...its not an easy finish either...while they get Clemson, Louisville, Duke and then at Miami, Hokies cannot afford anything worse than a split or they become quite bubblicious.
(61) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 18-9: Pack have some really good wins...at UNC, Clemson, at Cuse, neutral site wins over Arizona and Penn State. 5-6 in Q1 is very strong but they do have 2 Q3 losses OOC vs UNC Greensboro and Northern Iowa plus their is that sketchy non conference SOS of 274. Here is another ACC bubble that can distinguish themselves if they can finish strong. Last 4 includes 3 at home...BC, FSU, at GT and UL. A split will still probably put them on the right side of the bubble heading into the ACC tourney.
(68) NOTRE DAME 15-12 & (94) BOSTON COLLEGE 16-11: Longshot hopes for both, would likely have to win out regular season to put themselves in any serious discussion
ATLANTIC 10
Autobid: RHODE ISLAND
Bubble
(27) SAINT BONAVENTURE 20-6: A10 has only one bubble team this year in such a down year for the conference save for URI. On a 8 game win streak, the Bonnies got that needed win over URI last week to keep them in the game. Now 3-2 vs Q1, the others at Cuse and at Buffalo., they also have some nice Q2 wins over Vermont and Maryland...4-2 in Q2. The non conference SOS of 53 and overall sos of 89 is solid for a high mid major. Big obstacle for them on their resume is the bad losses that came in bunches in January. In addition to the opening season nightmare loss to Niagara, you have the loss to St Joes and at Dayton which is tenuously still a Q2 loss but is close to giving the Bonnies 3 Q3 losses. They simply cannot afford any slip ups down the stretch in the weak A10....which means taking care of landmines at VCU and avoiding the season sweep by Davidson.
BIG EAST
Autobid: VILLANOVA
Lock: XAVIER
Bubble
(25) SETON HALL 18-9: Pirates stopped the bleeding of a 4 game losing streak by holding serve vs De Paul but must prepare for the gauntlet in its final 4 games. Games at PC and SJU followed by home games vs Nova and Butler. The Pirates will either play their way into the tourney or out of the tourney. At 15-3, the Pirates look golden after building a solid resume with non conference wins over Louisville and Texas Tech and then picking up a road win at Butler. Yet the schedule got tougher and they crumbled big time including a home loss to Marquette and a teetering on the edge to a Q3 loss at Georgetown. Remember SHU also has a nasty Q3 loss to 208 Rutgers early in the season 3-6 vs Q1 is just okay at this point. So in league while they have 3 wins against other NCAA bubble teams, they have done little to distinguish themselves at only 7-7. Desperation time in South Orange, will they be able to right the sinking ship?
(36) CREIGHTON 18-8: Bluejays also starting to sink losing 3 of their last 4 and barely got by De Paul in their lone win. Like SHU have failed to come up with a big conference win...beating SHU, PC. Butler once does not move the needle. However they do have some solid OOC wins over UCLA and bubble Nebraska. 3-7 vs Q1 is just okay but the 6-1 mark vs Q2 is pretty solid. Overall the SOS is decent at 49 but the non conference SOS of 249 is a negative. Last 3 provides opportunity to beef up this middling resume....at Butler, Nova, DePaul, at Marquette...probably need 3 of these to be on the right side of the bubble.
(37) PROVIDENCE 17-10: Friars have been up and down all year. Wins over Nova and Xavier and losses at Umass and home to De Paul. Seems like every year there is a team hovering around the bubble like them. Still those wins over the top 2 in league go a looooooong way. Friars are now 5-6 in Q1 games. The SOS is a fine 21..neutral site win over bubble Washington and OOC losses to URI and Houston are not bad at all. Just need to be careful down the stretch...SHU, at Gtown, at Xavier, SJU...take 3 and they probably lock in, a split leaves them hovering around the bubble and anything worse puts them in some trouble.
(39) BUTLER 18-10: Bulldogs did much of their work early in the season when they knocked off Ohio State and then took down Villanova. Since then they have come up short against the top of the league with most of their wins against the bottom half of the league. Still the SOS is strong at 23, the 3-8 vs Q1 and 5-1 vs Q2 are okay. The win over Providence last week was a big one to keep them in the game but the thinking is with so many BE bubbles all grouped together, there is more to do in the final 3 of Creighton, at SJU and at SHU...two of 3 could do the trick for them giving that feather in their cap Nova win.
(57) MARQUETTE 15-11: Golden Eagles are significantly behind all the other BE bubbles. 4-8 in Q1. they are not going to be able to hang their hat on sweeping SHU and a wins at PC and Creighton to get them dancing. MU will need to sweep their last 4 but only one of them Creighton will be considered a quality win meaning they will have to make a very deep...most likely BE finals to land on the right side of the bubble.
BIG TEN
Autobid: MICHIGAN STATE
Lock: PURDUE, OHIO STATE, MICHIGAN
Bubble
(60) NEBRASKA 20-9: Cornhuskers are the most talked about and the most controversial bubble team this year. A gaudy 11-5 mark in the Big 10 good enough for a tie for 4th right now and 20 wins already win 2 left to play. In most years that would easily be good enough, well this isnt most years. The Big 10 is down...way down. The bottom half of the league is pure trash and the poor scheduling by the entire league and the inability to pick up a signficant amount of quality wins out of the league is hurting the entire conference rpi profile. However Nebby themselves are short on quality wins. Just 1-6 in Quadrant 1 and a paltry 3-2 in Q2. Tough to hang your hat on making the tournament by just beating Michigan at home and racking up wins against the likes of bottom feeding Rutgers and Wisconsin. The 6 game win streak was helping until it came crashing down with a Quad 3 loss to Illinois. Note OOC, the Huskers mostly failed...lost to St Johns, UCF, bubble Creighton and of course the near miss vs Kansas. Big negative is that 254 OOC SOS. There is a lot for them to overcome given most of the power 5 schools that they are competing for a bid have more quality wins and have played a tougher schedule. Only 2 games left and while one is against fellow bubble PSU, that wouldnt even give them another Q1 win they desperately need. So the Huskers need to absolutely win those two and probably knock off Michigan State in the Big 10 semis to solidify their spot in the field, otherwise they are leaving it to the mercy of the committee to overlook their warts.
(76) PENN STATE 19-10: Despite a worse rpi and worse conference mark, the Nittany Lions are actually slightly better positioned than Nebraska with their resume albeit they too have major work to do. Interesting to see that PSU's Ken Pom rating is 25 which is substantially better than their rpi. This is the first year that other rankings beside rpi will be officially on a schools profile sheet. Most of the times those rankings are similar to each other but I make note of PSU because of the vast difference which could factor in when the committee looks at their profile. PSU is just 2-5 vs Q1 and 2-3 vs Q2...a bit better than Nebby because they have the sweep over Ohio State. Again they came up short OOC in wins(best win Montana) and in scheduling (261). While the Rider loss may look bad, its actually not considering the Broncs look like MAAC champs but more costly were home losses to Wisconsin and Minnesota. Lions missed an opportunity by losing a close one at Purdue but games this week vs Michigan and at Nebraska provide two huge chances for Q1 wins. Win them both and they are actually looking pretty good heading into the Big 10 tourney. Lose both and they likely need to win the whole B10 tourney to get in. Split them and it looks like they might need a trip to the finals to move off the bubble and into the field.
(59) MARYLAND 18-11: Suppose we can mention the Terps here since the rpi is 59 but with a 0-9 mark vs Quadrant 1 and 2-2 vs Q2 the work just is not there. Nothing short of beating Michigan to close out the season and then getting to the Big 10 finals even gets them into consideration and even at that point, the Terps are a long shot.
BIG TWELVE
Autobid: TEXAS TECH
Lock: KANSAS, WEST VIRGINIA
Bubble
(22) TCU 18-9: Frogs are slumping with 4 losses in their last 6 games which has dropped their overall Big 12 mark to just 6-8. In a crowded Big 12 bubble, they will likely need to add a couple of quality wins down the stretch...Road games vs ISU/TT and at home vs Bay/KSU. Probably need a split of those game as they cannot afford that 7-11 conference mark even though supposedly its not a looked at criteria. 3-7/3-2 in Q1 and Q2 is okay but could be better. Some nice OOC wins tourney bound Nevada, So Dakota and bubble St Bonnies. In league though with just wins over WVU Texas. and at Baylor is where they have fallen short. Note the SOS of 13 is a big positive here
(35) OKLAHOMA 16-11: Sooners are teetering on the brink of playing themselves out of at large consideration. Losers of 6 straight and 9 of 11, they sit at just 6-9 in the Big 10. Have to win at least 2 of 3 to avoid that dreaded 7-11 conference mark which I dont think can be overcome. To make matters worse their record mark of 2-8 is a big red flag right now. The poor finish is a shame because the first half of the season has the numbers of a top 16 team. SOS of 12....6-7 vs Quad 1 schools. Wins over Wichita State, USC, league leading Texas Tech, a sweep of TCU and Kansas. Again how you finish isnt a criteria, no one can take away what the Sooners already amassed, its all about writing the ship for a couple of games. Finishing with Kansas St, at Baylor, and ISU. A sweep would lock them in and two out of 3 is probably enough to keep them on the right side of the bubble..but all bets off if they only get one more.
(47) BAYLOR 16-10: Bears seemed dead in the water a few weeks ago but have resuscitated their chances with wins over Texas Tech and Kansas as well as Texas on the road. From 2-7 in the Big 12 to 7-7 but still need to at least split those last 4 of WVU, at TCU, Oklahoma, and at KSU....a fairly tough stretch for them. They are up to 4-8 now vs Q1 but only 2-2 vs Q2 and their road mark of 2-8 needs work. They have a win over Creighton non conference but lost to fellow bubble Florida. Still there is no truly bad loss here on the resume so its just about taking care of business.
(53) TEXAS 16-11: Solid resume here, the only drawback is that 6-8 conference mark which they probably need to split the last 4 to avoid being 4 games under 500 in league. 5-8 vs Quadrant 1 is strong and that includes wins over Butler and Alabama non conference and Texas Tech, TCU and OU 2x. Yes 4 of 5 losses but again splitting those last 4 of at KSU, OSU, at Kansas, WVU. SOS of 19 plus no loss outside of Q1&2 are positives here
(56) KANSAS STATE 19-8: Wildcats do not have any stellar wins but have built a solid profile based on beating alot of the bubble teams in the Big 12. The 3-6 mark vs Quad 1 shows that but they are 5-1 vs Quad 2. Their best OOC was Georgia and its their OOC scheduling which is dragging their overall rpi numbers down....its 320 and thats pretty poor which also puts their overall sos down to 72. Still with road conference wins at Baylor and at Texas and winning at home vs TCU and Oklahoma, KSU has put themselves in position but like their fellow conference mates need to at least hold serve down the stretch...Tex/Bay at home and OU/TCU on the road. Need to split these games to maintain themselves on the right side of the bubble.
(105) OKLAHOMA STATE 15-12: Wins of late over Kansas and WVU keep them in the conversation for now but that overall SOS of 105 because of the 279 non conference SOS makes them a longshot. 3-9 vs Quad 1 and only 2-3 vs Q2, they do not have any real bad losses but at 5-9 in league, nothing less than winning 3 of their next 4 keeps them in contention. Home games vs Texas Tech and Kansas sandwiched by road trips to Texas and Iowa State. They will be playing their way in or out in the next two weeks. They simply need more wins.
MOUNTAIN WEST
Autobid: NEVADA
Bubble
(51) BOISE STATE 20-6: Broncs look in real trouble now after a costly loss at Utah State and then failing to get a needed quality win against league leading Nevada. The numbers just do not work for them....0-2 in Q1, an okay 5-3 vs Q2 but the best win is just MVC leading Loyola. Its a down year for the MWC so they are not able to pick any wins of note there and the SOS of 121 and non conference SOS of 236 just does not work for them. At this point all they can do is win out their last 3 and win 2 in MWC tourneyto make the final and hope that 25-7 can be enough for the selection committee to throw them a bone...longshot at best.
PACIFIC 12
Autobid: ARIZONA
Bubble
(28) ARIZONA STATE 19-7: ASU is probably a whisker from lock status. It would take complete collapse like losing their last 3 and then losing first round Pac 12 game for them to miss out. They just did too much good early on in the seasons. Wins over Xavier on a neutral court and Kansas on the road...are you kidding me..throw in another neutral site win over bubble Kansas St. Unfortunately the Pac 10 is bit down as a whole yet again. Conference wins over UCLA and USC are nice but those schools are hanging around the last 4 in/last 4 out line themselves....so the Quad 1 of 3-3 is all non conference wins...they are 4-3 in Quad 2. The only negatives here are they didnt beat Arizona at all and their overall conference mark of 7-7 would come into play if they dont win again and go 7-11.
(42) USC 19-9: Trojans may have a nice rpi but a closer look shows there is some serious lack of flesh on this resume. OOC wins on a neutral courts vs likely NCAA participants New Mexico State and Middle Tennessee State are solid but you cannot make a NCAA case from a power conference based only on these wins. Beyond that there is just a win over wrong side of the bubble Utah. They went 0-4 vs the top schools in the league and benefitted from a weaker conference slate. 2-5 in Quadrant 1 and 3-3 vs quadrant 2 needs more. Some opportunity in final 3 with trips to Utah and UCLA opportunities to pick up quadrant 1 wins. They will need both and ps that quadrant 4 loss to awful Princeton is looming large.
(48) UCLA 19-8: Bruins are better situated than USC due to their big win at Arizona. Just 2-3 vs Q1 and 3-5 vs Q2, they too need some work to bolster their resume. Their win over Kentucky isnt as impressive as it once looked but the UCLA has taken business against the likes of Washington, USC and Utah thus far. UCLA has a bad loss at Oregon State and the road hasnt been kind to them, just 2-5 and now the final 3 are on the road...at Utah, at Colorado, at USC..taking 2 of those should keep them on the right side of the bubble but anything less than that sets them for bubble trouble heading into the Pac 12 tourney.
(49) WASHINGTON 18-9: Huskies have that big win over Kansas to point to OOC but also did damage in league beating Arizona, ASU, UCLA and winning at USC. Thats some good stuff to put them at 4-3 vs Quad 1 however they are just 1-4 vs Quad 2 losing to a bunch of middling to bottom league schools most notably getting swept at the Oregon schools. Unfortunately their final 4 gives them no shots to add to their Q1 total and only one shot at a Q2 win...at Stanford. Huskies would do well to win them all but 3 of 4 should keep them will keep them in play going into the Pac 12 tourney. The SOS of 35 is something that will help them vs a few other bubble schools.
(50) UTAH 17-9: Utes going to need more. They have a nice OOC win over Missouri, did sweep Washington and won at ASU so they are 3-6 vs Q1 but only 2-2 vs Q2. Their hopes are going to rest with their next 2 home games...USC and UCLA, likely need to take both and they lost to both earlier in the year, but note those are Quadrant 2 game not 1. They will also need to avoid a trip up at Colorado and do some damage in the Pac 12 tourney...not impossible.
(77) COLORADO 15-12: They have wins over Arizona and ASU but 4 Quadrant 3 losses and 1 Quad 4 loss are too much to overcome. Lets revisit only if they can sweep last 3 of USC, UCLA, and Utah.
SOUTHEASTERN
Autobid: AUBURN
Lock: TENNESSEE
Bubble
(18) KENTUCKY 18-9: Cats looked like a lock until a 4 game losing streak raised some questions. Granted it was a brutal stretch of games for them and they stopped the bleeding by beating Alabama. Last 4 have some toughies in there but games where they can lock in with wins..at Arky, at Florida, Mizzou and Ole Miss. KY is probably fine with a split in these games. 3-7 vs Quadrant 1 is just okay but the 8-2 mark vs Quad 2 is impressive. SOS of 3 is sparkling. The wins certainly appear to be there...at WVU, Va Tech, UL, A&M.
(21) TEXAS A&M 17-10: there is so much to like here with the Aggies except for the 6-8 league mark which keeps them from lock status for now. Aggies have 7..count em 7 Quad 1 wins...7-8 there. Some fine OOC win...at USC, Buffalo and WVU, plus another solid win neutral over Penn State. In league though they struggled, losing at one time 5 straight and 7 of 9 failing to beat many of the top dogs in the league. However they did recover to win at Auburn and then Kentucky and Arkansas at home. That stabilized things so as long as the Aggies can split those final 4 and avoid being 7-11 in league they should be okay....Miss St, at Vandy, at Ga, and Bama. Note that SOS of 6 both overall and non conference is going to pay dividends for them, it already has with their strong overall rpi of 21 despite the 10 losses.
(24) MISSOURI 17-9: Tigers have quietly put together a solid resume. 5-7 vs Quad 1 and another 5 victories vs Quad 2, they've done most of their work in league with the biggest OOC win only at UCF. In league, they beat Tennessee, A&M, Kentucky, and at Bama. Yet it seems like something is missing. Tigers appear to be in good shape but it wouldnt hurt to grab another quality win in the final 4 games either at Kentucky or home to Arkansas. Not a whole lot of negative save for the nasty loss at Illinois earlier in the year.
(26) ARKANSAS 19-8: Hogs picked up their 5th Q1 win with a big victory over Texas A&M. Arky has some good SEC wins...Tennessee, Missouri to go along with A&M but the on the road they have come up short...just the win at Georgia...Overall the road mark is 2-6. Their best OOC win was a win over fading Oklahoma. Hard to pick out a negative, their only loss outside Q1 was to LSU at 75. Like some other SEC bubbles they just need to at least go 500 in their last 4...KY, at Bama, Aub, at Mizzou offer opportunities to vault them in but it clearly is their most brutal stretch for them, they do not want to play themselves out of the tourney either.
(34) ALABAMA 17-10: Tide has 6 Quad 1 games which usually should be good in this spot but the overall record is sort of middling so they need to make sure they pick up a win or two down the stretch, OOC wins over URI and Oklahoma are solid. Bama has done most of their damage at home..good wins over Tennessee, Auburn and A&M, with just a 2-6 road mark the most notable win at Florida. SOS is 14 and their only bad loss was to Minnesota who was a solid team before their implosion. Final 4 is tough...at Aub, Arky, Fla, and at A&M so they still want to rack up as many quality wins as possible to make things academic.
(64) FLORIDA 17-10: Gators did a lot of good earlier in the year but some baffling losses have raised questions about their at large status. Should they really be losing to the likes of SC, Miss St and getting swept by Georgia? Those are the games where if they took care of business, they would easily be a lock. They are 6-3 vs Quad 1 and 5-6 vs Quad 2. Strong OOC wins vs Gonzaga and Cincinnati. Big time league road wins over A&M, Missouri, KY and home win over Arky. Note a later season win over Baylor now looks better as well. Gators get a gauntlet down the stretch though where they will need to reprove themselves despite their impressive earlier wins...at Tenn, Aub, at Bama, and KY. Cannot afford to drop them all and might need 2 to be safe.
(66) GEORGIA 15-11: Bulldogs came into last week losers of 8 of 10 and on the verge of disappearing into the ether. Instead they not only beat Florida on the road but came back home to beat Tennessee. Those two wins bolstered their Quad 1 record to 5-7 which is pretty solid. If they can do some damage in their last 4, they will be right there when all is said and done. Games at Tennessee and home to A&M loom large as shots to make their case. They have that non conference win over St Marys and on the road at Marquette. The SOS though just 177 non conference is something that has been holding them back all year as does having so many losses.
(71) MISSISSIPPI STATE 18-8: Bulldogs clearly have alot of work to do. They are easily way behind all of the other SEC bubbles. Big red flag....1-7 road mark and going 16-1 at home...the sheer number of reliance on home games will be looked at as a negative by the selection committee and then getting only 1 when they did hit the road makes matters worse. The non conference SOS is an awful 310 and the overall SOS just comes in at 105. 2-6 vs Q1...Arky and Mizzou. Not good that their best OOC was Dayton. Down the stretch they will not only need to win on the road vs A&M and LSU but also get a win over Tennessee as well as SC at home. They have a lot to prove.
(75) LSU 15-11: Tigers have 7 Quad 1 wins so they have to be considered even with the woeful overall mark and conference record. OOC wins of Michigan and Houston..check.....Quality road wins in league over Arky and A&M..check...completing sweep of Arky and A&M..check...additional win over Missouri as well. Tigers just have a lot of losses so they have to overcome that...bad loss to Stephen F Austin, losses to ND/Marq, losses to Vandy...Tigers just got hit with a brutal mid season stretch of SEC games...and for the final 4 that lightens up, so if they can take 3 of those or all of them, thats when those 7 Q1 wins come into play. LSU does not need the quality wins, they have them, they just need to take care of business against the lesser of Vandy, at Ga, at SC, Miss St. Its quite doable for them.
WEST COAST
Autobid: GONZAGA
Bubble
(31) ST MARY'S 25-4: Gaels could have all but wrapped up the WCC but they couldnt complete the series sweep of Gonzaga at home but they compounded the problem by losing at San Fransisco last week. STMU is still most likely well inside the bubble but that loss definitely prevents them from locking in. Gaels probably just need to avoid a slip up in final 2 against WCC bottom feeders to lock in before the WCC tourney begins. While as usual the resume is thin for them...1-0 in Q1 and 2-2 in Q2. The best win other than Gonzaga is BYU 2x, we have been down this road before with them and this conference. NCAA has proven very willing with a 2nd bid for this league and quite frankly they could also just as easily beat Gonzaga in the WCC finals. The latter is pretty much a lock if they do not win the WCC autobid.
LAST 4 IN: UCLA, WASHINGTON, KANSAS STATE, BAYLOR
LAST 4 OUT: SYRACUSE, LOUISVILLE, USC, PENN STATE
