Rutgers as NCAA bubble team
- Thread starter PiscatawayMike
- Start date
First, I want to point out that my commentary was predicated on IF we remain a 120ish team. I personally don't think that will happen and I think the team will be good by February. Whether we will have done too much damage to our resume by that point is an open question.
That said, the team you're referring to missed the tournament entirely. You don't really get any credit for looking good in January and losing one player who was playing 25 mpg is not a sufficient excuse for flaming out in such epic fashion.
Yes, we were #12 in Bart at the high point of that season (immediately after the Michigan State win) and yes, that was predicated entirely on defense. Our adjusted defensive efficiency to that point was 84.9 (#2) and we were #150 in offense.
BUT,
- An 84.9 defensive rating, if maintained for an entire season, would be the #5 defense ever in the Kenpom era (behind 2009 Memphis 84.2, 2013 Louisville 84.8, 2015 Kentucky 84.4, 2019 Texas Tech 84.1). I do not think achieving that level of defense is a sustainable plan, and surely improving on the #150 offense is far, far, far lower hanging fruit.
- While that team was playing great defense at the time, teams had also shot 28.9% from three against us that season. While a little bit of that was probably attributable to our defense, a lot of it was simply good luck. There was bound to be some regression to the mean there.
We just aren't going to win a championship, or make a final four, being #150 on either side of the court. As far as I can tell the worst any national championship winner has been on either offense or defense is 2014 UConn with the #39 offense. And even that is kind of a fluke imo because they were #15 overall, the only Kenpom era champion outside of the top 10.
This was always going to a be an around the bubble type year. Way too many new pieces combined with youthful talent that the staff has never had before. It will take a bit for Pike to settle on rotations. We'll have a guy or two that will find they aren't this level when they play Alabama and that will help the rotation.
let's not forget Caleb and Paul were out early and we werent healthy until 12/3.
That year SD State made it to the final...a team that won with defense
They did. They had the #75 offense which is a big step up from #150.
Separately, and semi-related, they were a 5 seed which is not really what I would consider a championship contender generally (while granting that anyone can get hot once they're in the field).
Sooooo.........
The day before Mag was hurt....what do you think the Vegas odds would have been for RU to win it all?
Is 35 to 1 reasonable to guess?
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Amazingly Bart has this archived. According to him (and he had us #12 which I would say is about as optimistic as anyone) we had a 1.8% chance at the championship which would be ~56 to 1.
bart sucks...i had my F4 tickets already ordered. Only Covid or a Mag injury was stopping us.TourneyCast - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank
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Amazingly Bart has this archived. According to him (and he had us #12 which I would say is about as optimistic as anyone) we had a 1.8% chance at the championship which would be ~56 to 1.
We were 11 to 1 to be in the F4 according to bart.....Did bart take in to consideration Caleb and Paul's injuries that had them out 1st 1/4 of the season. The team was thin on the rotation (which would have been the achilles heel and proved to be the case when Mag went down)
This is a pretty good stretch
| Sat 12-17 | H | 31 | 85 (Ⅲ) | Wake Forest | W, 81-57 | 69 | |
| Fri 12-23 | H | 26 | 289 (Ⅳ) | Bucknell | W, 85-50 | 71 | |
| Fri 12-30 | H | 20 | 340 (Ⅳ) | Coppin St. | W, 90-57 | 78 | |
| Mon 1-02 | A | 17 | 7 (I-A) | • | Purdue | W, 65-64 | 62 |
| Thu 1-05 | H | 12 | 31 (Ⅱ) | • | Maryland | W, 64-50 | 62 |
| Sun 1-08 | H | 11 | 41 (Ⅱ) | • | Iowa | L, 76-65 | 68 |
| Wed 1-11 | A | 15 | 32 (I) | • | Northwestern | W, 65-62 | 59 |
| Sun 1-15 | H | 9 | 45 (Ⅱ) | • | Ohio St. | W, 68-64 OT | 71 |
| Thu 1-19 | A | 10 | 25 (I-A) | • | Michigan St. | L, 70-57 | 63 |
| Tue 1-24 | H | 15 | 36 (Ⅱ) | • | Penn St. | W, 65-45 | 62 |
| Sun 1-29 | A | 11 | 41 (I-A) | • | Iowa | L, 93-82 | 77 |
| Wed 2-01 | H | 16 | 207 (Ⅳ) | • | Minnesota | W, 90-55 | 69 |
| Sat 2-04 | H | 16 | 25 (Ⅱ) | • | Michigan St. | W, 61-55 | 66 |
I will never forget the Maryland game. It was the best defensive half I have ever seen in college basketball.
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GAME 15 MARYLAND: Welcome to R Nightmare
The adjustments by Pike and staff may be viewed as taking too long, but I believe they're tied to when a team gets to see them and then doesn't have a chance to adjust again. When Reiber came in, it was clearly because Cliff was screening and then waiting for a handoff/pass to our guards, to...
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No, but he also didn't account for our lack of depth (and again he had us #12 overall which was certainly higher than consensus opinion) so I think he was being at least fair to us if not overestimating our chances.
I have no data on this but it is my feeling that Pike's teams have been very streaky. The 2019-20 team, 2020-21 team, 2021-22 team, 2022-23 team all had stretches where they looked like top 10 teams as well as stretches where they looked absolutely awful (well 2019-20 maybe not but still stretches where they didn't look very good).
no doubt....not sure if it is ant more streaky than a 35ish ranked team would be with schedule like us.
2 years ago I had a ton of concerns about our team hitting a wall because everyone was playing balls to wall for 37 minutes. That year Paul fell off a cliff physically and mentally at the end of the year. I think playing with effort will lead to that. Paul was Magic or Oscar Robertson for 5 games that year. By the end of the year was tripping people and practically crying on the court and has his starting PG spot stripped and given to Derek
2 years ago I had a ton of concerns about our team hitting a wall because everyone was playing balls to wall for 37 minutes. That year Paul fell off a cliff physically and mentally at the end of the year. I think playing with effort will lead to that. Paul was Magic or Oscar Robertson for 5 games that year. By the end of the year was tripping people and practically crying on the court and has his starting PG spot stripped and given to Derek
Yes ..to an extent
Our defense is not going to be elite …but a chunk of our defensive issues is mental recognition of the timing of rotations and switching and recognizing screens
Guys like Dylan and ace will get over those screens more in February than. Ke by playing. It’s not athleticsm , it’s recognition that takes sone time
Same with Somerville …who has the foot speed and agility to get to the spot …but needs to learn to recognize it
This so reminds me of haroer and Mathis and Myles first year defense…in 2018-2019. We were a defensive train wreck in December losing some bad OOC in fordham , seton hall wih bad defense …and by January , it started to click on defense
I am concerned about what martini , hayes and Ogobke Dan do because of foot soeed and agility issues can do on man defense …but I think ace , Dylan , lathan , derkack will be better as the year goes on and the grasp the defensive lapses
Untik then …we need to outscore sone teams and not get too many losses …..
If we end up being a bubble team, Pikiell's seat better be hot with a new AD coming in. With this much talent and not making the NCAA coaching would be a real question mark.
