BAC'S FIRST ROUGH NCAA TOURNEY ANALYSIS WITH PECKING ORDER: 2/5
- Thread starter bac2therac
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With the PAC 12 being down, they are going to want western teams in spite of what they profess. Think BYU and St. Mary's fairly confident.
Just can't imagine defending champs in UVA being left out.
Would love to play LSU in a 2nd round game. Very lucky team. Florida is psychotic.
As great a job as BAC does and glad he does it, seedings are far more interesting IMHO.
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ON ESPN Bubble Watch - Yale may get at large consideration.
The dream of an Ivy at-large endures, "dream" meaning we've never seen it before. Perhaps this is the year, or possibly Yale will win the automatic bid and won't need the help. In either event, this is potentially the strongest Bulldogs team James Jones has had in his 21-year tenure in New Haven. Running the table in the Ivy is both a real possibility and this team's best available argument for an at-large bid. (If it comes to it, Harvard will have something to say about that on the last day of the season in Cambridge.)
Paul Atkinson
is piling up the points in the paint, and Yale's NET ranking is hovering in top-50 territory.
The dream of an Ivy at-large endures, "dream" meaning we've never seen it before. Perhaps this is the year, or possibly Yale will win the automatic bid and won't need the help. In either event, this is potentially the strongest Bulldogs team James Jones has had in his 21-year tenure in New Haven. Running the table in the Ivy is both a real possibility and this team's best available argument for an at-large bid. (If it comes to it, Harvard will have something to say about that on the last day of the season in Cambridge.)
Paul Atkinson
is piling up the points in the paint, and Yale's NET ranking is hovering in top-50 territory.
Yale's best win was against sub 500 Clemson, also beat Vermont. They lost to Penn State, UNC, San Fransisco and Oklahoma State. I suppose if they go 24-4 and then make the Ivy finals they will be a consideration but still tough with no Q1 wins and a sketchy Q2 win
I wouldnt rule them out but only if they run the table
I wouldnt rule them out but only if they run the table
Kudos to Yale for playing 4 majors and scheduling some tougher midmajors......unfortunately they went 1-3 and really unfortunate that Clemson stinks.
If they went 27-5 14-0 in a conference ranked in the middle of the road (15 out of 32?)....
If they went 27-5 14-0 in a conference ranked in the middle of the road (15 out of 32?)....
The 4 B1G teams wondering how low can they go and still get in......
Purdue 13-10 6-6.....if they finish 17-14 they'd probably need a B1Gt win
Minny 12-10 6-6....if they finish 16-14 and go 1-1 17-15
Wisc 13-10 6-6......same boat as Purdue
Michigan 13-9 4-7.......what if they are 17-14 8-12
Purdue 13-10 6-6.....if they finish 17-14 they'd probably need a B1Gt win
Minny 12-10 6-6....if they finish 16-14 and go 1-1 17-15
Wisc 13-10 6-6......same boat as Purdue
Michigan 13-9 4-7.......what if they are 17-14 8-12
well usually I think brackets before February should be banned...just too early, seems like its the new thing the past couple of years.
Usually I wouldnt do my first analysis until the mid Feb at earliest so this is almost 2 weeks ahead of schedule. To me there still are alot of games to be played...8 for most that can change things alot
As for my accuracy, last year got them all correct and seeding very close, most years one, but Ive had 2 wrong too, usually because the committee loves to throw a curveball. However since they went to 68 rather than 65, I have found not many teams have arguments for getting snubbed. Its becoming more difficult to find those worthy last few at larges
Usually I wouldnt do my first analysis until the mid Feb at earliest so this is almost 2 weeks ahead of schedule. To me there still are alot of games to be played...8 for most that can change things alot
As for my accuracy, last year got them all correct and seeding very close, most years one, but Ive had 2 wrong too, usually because the committee loves to throw a curveball. However since they went to 68 rather than 65, I have found not many teams have arguments for getting snubbed. Its becoming more difficult to find those worthy last few at larges
Hey bac. Long time listener, first time caller. Not sure if you addressed this elsewhere but right now you have us 7th out of the teams battling for the last 25 spots. How many bid stealers from the smaller conferences are there usually in a given year? I'm guessing it's at least 2-3 so the teams ranked toward the bottom of your 25 would be vulnerable depending on the number of bid stealers, correct?
Not many..as of now really only E Tennessee St, Northern Iowa, and Yale would be in contention. Tulsa may be leading the AAC currently but may not looks so hot as an at large. The A10 usually has a bid stealer. Someone could upset San Diego St in the MWC. I suppose Liberty at 21-3 could get a look
Bac, You did a wonderful job as usual. You certainly put a lot of time into this and save the rest of us a lot of work. Thank you.
wait until i start writing paragraphs on each team...then it will take 30 minutes to read
Its gratis in the interim awaiting the first big snow storm
Still remember Tranghese interview after the bracket was released saying they really wanted to reward tough OOC scheduling. Don't you have to win a few of the tough games?
Interestingly, RU had the same record (3-11) as OSU against NCAA teams last year. Just shows how you can ballast your Q1 record by not screwing up too much elsewhere.
Recently read that RU was 105th in KenPom in 2002... I don't quite get that, I know they had a few bad losses and were routinely blown out on the road, but they were 3-3 against NCAA teams. I guess only 6 games hints at a SOS that didn't look that great by the end. RU beat 4 ranked teams at the RAC that year and only 2 of them ended up making the dance.
Recently read that RU was 105th in KenPom in 2002... I don't quite get that, I know they had a few bad losses and were routinely blown out on the road, but they were 3-3 against NCAA teams. I guess only 6 games hints at a SOS that didn't look that great by the end. RU beat 4 ranked teams at the RAC that year and only 2 of them ended up making the dance.
This web page from March 1 2017 lists every team with 14 losses who got in and how they did.. the very first one, LSU, went to a regional final and maybe that's why the practice continued.
Of the 11 teams at that point (prior to 2017's invites) only 3 teams made it past the first game.
Regional Final for LSU in 1987 as mentioned above,
1991 Nova lost in 2nd Round
2011 Marquette lost in the Sweet 16.
interestingly, 2011 had 5 teams with 14 losses. Michigan State, Penn State, USC, Tennessee and Marquette
Of the 11 teams at that point (prior to 2017's invites) only 3 teams made it past the first game.
Regional Final for LSU in 1987 as mentioned above,
1991 Nova lost in 2nd Round
2011 Marquette lost in the Sweet 16.
interestingly, 2011 had 5 teams with 14 losses. Michigan State, Penn State, USC, Tennessee and Marquette
Well a couple of things...we added 3 more at large bids and conference realignment. Both contributed to the watering down somewhat allowing a little more consolidation at the top. Conferences like the Missouri Valley lost their top 2 programs. CUSA lost Memphis and others becoming a one bid league. The Big East castaways morphed into the AAC or were absorb by the Big 10 or ACC. The WAC lost any relevance with schools bolting
Just seems like all that consolidated power in the top 6conferences with 3-4 others getting a few bids but that left everybody else almost assuredly one bid leagues
With the heavy emphasis on quads and sos it certainly favors power conference schools over the old rpi which could be manipulated
Illinois is 34, Michigan 35 and Wisconsin 36. We want these schools to win as much as possible save for their games vs RU. They would all become Q1 wins at home if they can get into the top 30. Iowa is 30, at this point root for them to lose and Purdue is 29 so they have to keep winning to stay in the 30.
Regardless of whether they get into the 30, Illinois and Wisconsin are quality wins. So when I say some Q1 wins are better than Q2 wins, its true, so for instance a team winning at UConn gets a Q1 win, although UConn isnt very good its a road win though and thats why it gets valued more. However UConn is nowhere close to a NCAA team. A key thing the committee looks at is how you did against teams IN the field. In that respect the numbers are very good and also helped out that SF Austin looks like they should be in the field as the winner of the Southland.
Regardless of whether they get into the 30, Illinois and Wisconsin are quality wins. So when I say some Q1 wins are better than Q2 wins, its true, so for instance a team winning at UConn gets a Q1 win, although UConn isnt very good its a road win though and thats why it gets valued more. However UConn is nowhere close to a NCAA team. A key thing the committee looks at is how you did against teams IN the field. In that respect the numbers are very good and also helped out that SF Austin looks like they should be in the field as the winner of the Southland.
This was Lunardi's list as of Friday so it doesnt include Saturday games so good comparison to my list. He has RU as the top 8 seed and only rates RU two spots lower than I do.
click to enlarge
SORRY if this is a highjack and should be in a separate thread. I get reluctance to computer models. Looking at smaller conferences and their impact....
using bart's WAB just to get a feel http://www.barttorvik.com/trank.php...1&top=0&quad=5&venue=All&type=All&mingames=0#
SFA is .8 WAB (wins above bubble). If they win out regular season they'd get their WAB slightly above 1 and would be in despite what happens in Southland. Any regular season loss wrecks them as an at large
Yale is -.4 WAB right now. Given IVY isn't bad they can grow that number by winning. Running the table would get their WAB above 1 and absord a IVY league tournament loss. Any regular seaason loss wreckes them as an at large
Liberty is a .2 WAB right now. Like SFA their conference is bad. Run the table they get their WAB to .5 which would NOT be enough to stomach a tournament loss.
Furman is a -.2 WAB right now....they have E Tenn State AND UNC Greensboro on road.....run the table regular season and the WAB gets above 1 and they are in
East Tennessee and Furman could make Southern Conference
using bart's WAB just to get a feel http://www.barttorvik.com/trank.php...1&top=0&quad=5&venue=All&type=All&mingames=0#
SFA is .8 WAB (wins above bubble). If they win out regular season they'd get their WAB slightly above 1 and would be in despite what happens in Southland. Any regular season loss wrecks them as an at large
Yale is -.4 WAB right now. Given IVY isn't bad they can grow that number by winning. Running the table would get their WAB above 1 and absord a IVY league tournament loss. Any regular seaason loss wreckes them as an at large
Liberty is a .2 WAB right now. Like SFA their conference is bad. Run the table they get their WAB to .5 which would NOT be enough to stomach a tournament loss.
Furman is a -.2 WAB right now....they have E Tenn State AND UNC Greensboro on road.....run the table regular season and the WAB gets above 1 and they are in
East Tennessee and Furman could make Southern Conference
Southern Conference - could be 2 depending on Furman and E Tenn St
Ivy - could be 2 if Yale runs the table
Altantic Sun only 1
MVC could be 2 if Northen Iowa doesnt win T
Ivy - could be 2 if Yale runs the table
Altantic Sun only 1
MVC could be 2 if Northen Iowa doesnt win T
Yale's loss the other day killed them. I think thats it for them
Northern Iowa has the best case for mid majors
According to BART
Southern 14th out of 32
IVY 15th out of 32
Yale 26-6 13-1 1-1 VS. what might be at the bottom of you list....
Southern 14th out of 32
IVY 15th out of 32
Yale 26-6 13-1 1-1 VS. what might be at the bottom of you list....
Interesting set of stats - I had not seen this site before. Wondering what happens to RU if, say they lose to OSU this week. RU is a +1.4 (which feels more precarious than I had thought), but OSU is a +1.6. Does a loss on the hurt RU (much)?
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