BAC- tremendous job in analysis and ranking of teams.Okay grab a cup of java and spend sometime getting to know the 2017 NCAA tourney bubble
32 Autobids
ACC: North Carolina
AMERICA EAST: Vermont
AMERICAN: SMU
ATLANTIC SUN: Florida Gulf Coast
ATLANTIC TEN: Dayton
BIG 10: Purdue
BIG 12: Kansas
BIG EAST: Villanova
BIG SKY: North Dakota
BIG SOUTH: Winthrop
BIG WEST: UC Davis
COLONIAL: North Carolina Wilmington
CUSA: Middle Tennessee State
HORIZON: Oakland
IVY: Princeton
MAAC: Monmouth
MIDAMERICAN: Akron
MEAC: North Carolina Central
MISSOURI VALLEY: Wichita State
MOUNTAIN WEST: Nevada
NORTHEAST: Mount St Mary's
OHIO VALLEY: Belmont
PATRIOT: Bucknell
PAC 12: Oregon
SEC: Kentucky
SOUTHERN: UNC Greensboro
SOUTHLAND: New Orleans
SUN BELT: Texas Arlington
SWAC: Texas Southern
SUMMIT: South Dakota
WAC: CSU Bakersfield
WCC: Gonzaga
22 Projected At Large Locks: Cincinnati, Louisville, Duke, Virginia, Florida State, Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech, Butler, Creighton, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Maryland, Minnesota, Arizona, UCLA, Florida, South Carolina, St Mary's
That takes care of 54 of the 68 available spots. That leaves 14 spots open. I have identified 30 schools on or near the bubble. Here is the pecking order....
IN
1. (40) MICHIGAN STATE 18-11: Yesterday's dominating win over Wisconsin all but wraps up an at large bid for Sparty. Going to keep them just outside a lock for now but still cannot see a likely scenerio where they get left out. Now 6-7 vs top 50 and an impressive 11-10 vs top 100. The two wins over Minnesota are looking better by the minute. Other conference wins vs NCAA likelys Michigan and Northwestern and that fine OOC win over Wichita State bolster the resume. Trips to Illinois and Maryland will be tough and a win in either or one Big 10 tourney win makes it academic.
2. (46) MICHIGAN 19-10: Red hot Michigan has won 5 of 6 and taken down 3 tourney schools in Wisconsin, MSU, and most recently the impressive win over Purdue over the weekend. That was the win that puts the Wolverines like MSU is the all but a lock catagory. Everything is good to go with the rpi nitty gritty.....4-7 vs top 50 and a whopping 11-10 vs top 100. Strong OOC wins over SMU and Marquette and no losses to a team outside the top 100. Road trips to Northwesternand Nebraska left for them but the feeling is enough cushion has been built up regardless of the outcome of those games.
3. (50) NORTHWESTERN 20-9: Cats struggling toward the end of the year as the pressure of securing the school's first NCAA bid ever is mounting. The Indiana loss was heartbreaking because they had the game won and it was their 5th loss in 7 games. More importantly is that the Cats just are not playing well and that does not bode well for home games vs Michigan and Purdue. It is not panic time yet because a win in one of those game will in all likelihood lock them in. Their profile still is significantly above that of teams hanging around the 68 line. 3-6 vs top 50 is just okay but the 9-9 mark vs top 100 is strong. OCC wins over Dayton and Wake are quite solid. In league less impressive but that win at Wisconsin was huge. The SOS is a middling 76 but we can also point that Northwestern does not have a bad loss..no losses outside the top 100. Their worst loss was Indiana. Note the two losses to Illinois which could come into play if the Illini make a late run.
4. (23) VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 23-6: The loss to Rhody knocked the Rams out of first in the A10 but VCU has a chance to redeem themselves with a win at Dayton. A win there will lock them in the tourney no doubt as well as giving them the #1 seed in the A10 tourney. A loss and there could be some uncertainty if they do not beat George Mason and win at least a game in the A10 tourney. With a SOS of just 71, the top 50 rpi stuff is lacking..just 2-2. A win over Dayton and a very good win over Middle Tennessee State but would like to see more here. 7-4 vs top 100 is better but made up of a lot of mediocre A10 schools. 3 of their losses were to bubbles Georgia Tech, Illinois, and URI. They would do well not to let the committee find a reason to leave them out.
5. (27) XAVIER 18-11: Not often that a schools gets moved from the lock catagory back onto the bubble but Xavier seems to be a school on the skids. 5 straight losses...all to tourney likely schools or bubbles are not bad losses per se but their overall profile is taking a serious dent. The Muskateers have just one top 25 win....Creighton, are just 3-8 vs top 50....SHU/Wake Forest....suddenly the wins do not stand out against a crowded Big East bubble field. The 8-10 mark is certainly okay enough at this level but beyond the win over PC, the wins are not against tourney caliber schools. Huge game looms at home vs Marquette. Win that game and Xavier will have calmed the seas for now, but a loss and serious concerns get raised meaning they will likely have to find a win of quality in the Big East to keep themselves in the field.
6. (48) SETON HALL 18-10: Pirates have done the exact opposite of Xavier. Pirates have moved themselves way up with the pecking order with their recent wins over Xavier and Creighton. They avoided the slipup at De Paul and need to avoid one over Georgetown. Of course winning at Butler would lock them in but a trip to the BE semis would also do the trip. 3-6 vs top 50 is okay but 8-9 vs top 100 is very good. Very good OOC over So Carolina, nice wins over Cal and Iowa. Split with fellow bubbles Marquette and Providence but think the Pirates' are slightly ahead of those schools right now. Still the uncertainty with 4 Big East teams on the bubble and the question of whether the league can really get 7 schools in when all is said and done means they cannot breath safe yet.
7. (36) USC 21-8: Trojans suffered a costly lost to lowly ASU last night blowing a double digit lead that gave them their only loss outside the top 100. Its the 4th straight loss for USC and it starts to raise questions about their profile Certainly the win OOC over SMU and the in league win over crosstown rival UCLA are big time quality but beyond that you ask "where is the beef?' A win over BYU certainly looks better today but a 2-5 mark vs top 50 and 5-7 mark vs top 100 are pretty sketchy for a Power 5 school. While the top of the Pac 12 has been strong, the middle and bottom has been pretty weak. The Trojans will benefit from the respect the top is getting but only if they are able to handle bottom feeding schools like Washington and WSU in the last two. It will not give them quality wins but it will at least not give the committee reasons to leave them out. Would suggest that they make their way to the Pac 12 semis for security's sake.
8. (75) SYRACUSE 17-13: Much like last year, the Orange are the most controversial bubble team. Last year many thought that they should not have received an at large bid but they did have a strong top 50/100 profile that seemed to negate the bad losses. This year almost the same type of resume..some great wins and some bad losses (BC/SJU/UConn). 3 top 25 wins, 6-7 vs top 50 is extremely strong and the 8-10 vs top 100 is solid. The big wins are Duke and FSU but the Miami, Virgina, Monmouth and Wake wins are very good complimentary wins. This time the bubble is much softer...on the other hand the sheer amount of losses could come into play as well as that awful 2-10 road/neutral mark. No team with 15 losses has received an at large bid to the NCAA tourney. Not sure that Cuse can afford a loss to Georgia Tech in its regular season finale and then another in the ACC tourney. Beat Georgia Tech and they will be in good shape. Lose and its really up to what they do in the ACC tourney and how the bubble around them shakes up.
9. (29) ARKANSAS 22-7: Razorbacks doing the thing they need to keep doing which is win. They have not accumulated a whole lot of quality wins...just 3-5 vs top 50...at Vandy/SC and Tex Arlington OOC, but they are now up to 11-5 in the SEC and have amassed 10 rpi top 100 wins along the way. SOS is a just okay 69, feeling here is their overall rpi is somewhat inflated by the gaudy 22-7 record and the inflated SEC top 100 wins. Two big games this week starting with a game at Florida in which a win will vault them in for sure and then a home game against Georgia. Florida is not a must win but Georgia is. Arky cannot afford two losses because then that is when the uncertainties creep in. SEC is not all the respected beyond its top 2 and Vandy is lurking right outside the cut line with better wins that Arky. Similarity perhaps to So Carolina's profile last year who were snubbed.
10. (67) MARQUETTE 17-11: Eagles suffered a tough loss at PC blowing a game they had and a shot to position themselves further up the pecking order. Still they have almost quietly worked their way onto the good side of the bubble. 5-6 vs top 50 is pretty strong and the 8-10 mark right in line with everyone else. The big win which keeps giving is the one over Villanova. They won at Creighton as well and OOC wins over bubbles Vandy and at Georgia look good. The loss to PC though was costly because it was their 2nd of the year to the Friars. A week of opportunity to solidify their spot or to possible play their way out. A trip to Xavier for a huge bubble matchup and then a home game vs Creighton. Losing both will land them out of the field barring a Big East tourney run to the finals. Winning both locks them in. Going 1-1 leaves them very bubblicious. Which way will they go?
11. (53) PROVIDENCE 18-11: Friars have played their way into the field the last 2 weeks with 2 wins over NCAA locks (Butler/Creighton) and 2 wins over fellow bubbles (Xavier/Marq). Up to 6-7 vs top 50 and 10-8 vs top 100, these are very strong numbers as the season comes to a close. OOC the wins vs Vermont and URI are sneaky good. They split with SHU and Xavier so no traction there but swept Marquette. Games against weak sisters De Paul and SJU are must wins though to keep the Friars here. Its the two bad losses to De Paul and BC both plus 200 schools that give pause on a otherwise solid resume. Its about taking care of business and not sustaining anymore bad losses. Unlike the other BE bubbles ahead of them, they will not get a shot at adding another quality win until the BE tourney.
12. (51) CALIFORNIA 19-9: A poster child for "Meh" resumes. Cal has just one top 50 win...at fellow bubble USC and a win over Princeton..that is it.....0-6 vs top 50, a paltry 1-7 vs top 50, and a weak sauce 4-8 vs top 100. Traditionally those type of nitty gritty numbers would land them out of the field having to work their way in but welcome to Weak bubble 2017. It has allowed the Bears to push their way up the list despite their profile. Obviously going to be helped by the strength at the top of the Pac 12 but Cal was 0-5 vs them. Note they lost to bubble Seton Hall. In their defense their worst loss was only to 101 San Diego State. Last two are dangerous road trips to Utah and Colorado. Win both and they are in. Lose both and they probably need a Pac 12 final run. Split and things remain unclear and they sit smack on the bubble needing a Pac 12 quality win to move their needle in the right direction
13. (35) ILLINOIS STATE 24-5: Redbirds finished co MVC regular season winners with Wichita State. Chatter is all about can the MVC land two given the overall weakness of the league and the lack of quality wins by both schools. Thinking is the Shockers have the better case for an at large probably due to perception while ISU is a bit sketchy. Obviously this is a good team but its been skating by to some close wins the past two weeks. Just 1-1 vs top 50...the split with WSU and 2-3 vs top 100 (mediocre New Mexico) and a SOS of 161 they will be dilemma for the committee if they fall short in the MVC. The committee has not been giving love to midmajor schools of late. However this year there is a lot of power 6 bloat around the bubble. If ISU can make the MVC finals, its reasonable to say they have as good as shot as anyone from a Power 6 school with a sub 500 conference record. Will be at the mercy of how those Power 6 tourney results shake out.
14. (42) RHODE ISLAND 19-9: Losses around the bubble this weekend allowed Rhody to float their way to last team in with that big win over VCU. The win was important because URI was lacking that legit conference win to go along with that big quality win over Cincinnati. Beyond that there is a nice win over projected Ohio Valley winner Belmont. Still 2-3 vs top 50 and 4-7 vs top 100 is shaky ground when you sit on the last 4 in/last 4 out line. The A10 is down this year. They have an awful loss to Fordham which really kills them when you try to give them the benefit of the doubt. The Rams will not have many opportunities for quality wins in its last two at St Joe's and Davidson, nor will they have a shot at a quality win until the A10 semis. So basically they need to win their last two and then beat Dayton/VCU in the A10 semis to make their case. Very doable but really in a precarious spot.
OUT
15. (47) VANDERBILT 16-13: Scheduling strong has its benefits. The Commodores have a SOS of 3 and have managed to quietly do their work slipping in the rpi top 50 and build some nice stuff on their resume despite being up and down all year long. 4-6 vs top 50 and 9-12 vs top 100 are very willing numbers. Vandy has a big win at Florida and as well as strong OOC win over Iowa State. In league they also beat SC and won at Arkansas. The negative is the overall loss number. Again as stated before, no school with 15 losses has received an at large bid. Vandy seems to has a bad loss to 254 Missouri which could kill them. They also have a good deal of losses to fringe SEC bubbles like Alabama, Ole Miss and Georgia. So this week they finish at Kentucky and then home to Florida. Hard to expect them to win at Kentucky but what if they complete a season sweep of Florida. They would have amassed 5 top 50 wins and 10 top 100 wins yet they would head into the SEC tourney at 17-14 meaning one loss would drop them to 15. In that case they might need a run to the SEC finals. Going to be interesting to watch what the committee does with Vandy and Cuse who have the quality wins for sure but do have 15 losses.
16. (93) GEORGIA TECH 15-13: Losses to Notre Dame and NC State have bounced the Yellowjackets from in to out of the NCAA field. Two things that they are going to need overcome, first the sagging overall rpi mark of 93 as no school with an rpi that poor has been selected for an at large bid. Secondly like Cuse/Vandy they faced the issue of a possiblity of 15 losses. Now GT can take care of that issue if they can beat Pitt and win at Cuse. Those are the type of wins that would stabilize their profile which is willing with those wins. 4-7 vs top 50 is solid enough....that win over No Carolina is huge for them. Then you add in wins over FSU and ND plus a big OOC win over VCU. There most certainly is beef to the resume. Completing a season sweep with Cuse and getting that Pitt win would put them at 8-11 vs top 100 and 9-9 in ACC play. This would be good enough but its up to them to earn their way back in. A loss means much work to do in the ACC tourney.
17. (44) WAKE FOREST 16-12: It's hard to try and make a case for the Demon Deacons to be included in the field now based off of just wins over Miami, Bucknell and Georgia Tech. The mediocrity in the middle to bottom of the ACC has allowed Wake to remain in the discussion despite a 0-7 mark vs top 25, an atrocious 1-9 vs top 50 and a weak 6-12 vs top 100. The best that can be said about them is that the SOS is a strong 24 and there are no bad losses here, all within the top 100. Any shot WF has comes in its last two....Louisville and at Va Tech. They really need both but to at least to remain on life support they will need a split. Lose both and it is Sayonara Sally.
18. (56) ILLINOIS 16-12: Somehow someway, the Illini have managed to push their way onto the bubble after being left for dead a few weeks. That is what a few wins in weak bubble year will do when you have a strong SOS. They have been unspectacular for much of the year but that SOS of 12 is coming into play. Illinois has some nice wins over VCU, Michgan, and a sweep of Northwestern.....4-8 vs top 50 would seem needing more but the 9-12 vs top 100 is strong enough here and notching another top 50 and 100 win against Michigan State will legitimately put them in play heading into the Big 10 tourney...of course as long as they can take care of last place Rutgers in the season finale which would even their Big 10 mark at 9-9. Note there are no bad losses on the resume. So alot riding on that home game against Michigan State because its a game that could also end their hopes.
19. (87) INDIANA 16-13: Hard to believe that with just one win in their last 6, the Hoosiers are not only alive for a NCAA bid but still in the last 4 in line. That win over Northwestern resuscitated their dying chances. However the key to Indiana staying in contention involves winning their last two which will not be easy. It means winning at Big 10 leading Purdue...tall order indeed and then winning at Ohio State. One would say this seems unlikely given Indiana's woeful 2-9 road mark. But IF and its a big IF, if they win those that is where their strong OOC wins over Kansas and UNC will be pointed to. Indiana does have those 2 top 25 wins that most bubble teams do not have, they are 4-10 vs top 50 and 7-12 vs top 100 but two more wins pushes some of those numbers up, Indiana will have as good a profile as any on the last 4 in/last 4 out line. That bad loss to 238 Fort Wayne might be their undoing as it has torpedoed their overall rpi number and is their only loss outside the top 100.
20. (67) KANSAS STATE 17-12: Wildcats have played their way out of their tourney and their 30 point loss to bottom feeding Oklahoma shows that they do not pass the eye test anymore. KSU has lost 5 of 6 and 8 of 10 and are just 6-10 in the Big 12. Cats have 3 really great wins...at Baylor, at OSU and WVU for the 3-8 mark vs top 50. That is actually pretty good the problem is that they are just 4-11 vs top 100 and a woeful 6-11 vs top 150. Not sure a school with just 6 top 150 wins can or should receive an at large bid. Their best OOC win is just Colorado State. So much to overcome at this point, their hopes lay on winning at TCU which is basically a bubble elimination and game and then beat Texas Tech. At that point they would have at least stopped the bleeding and notched two more needed top 100 wins. Then they will need another quality win or two in the Big 12 tourney. Possible but not probable given the direction they seemed headed.
21. (60) TCU 16-12: Horned Frogs have lost 5 in a row all against NCAA tourney locks which wrapped up a 1-7 mark against the top 4 schools in the Big 12. Their lone win was early in the Big 12 season over Iowa State. They have just one additional non conference win of note but its a good one...Illinois State. Unfortunately despite the strong SOS this year of 23, TCU went an awful 2-10 vs top 50 schools and a not much better 5-12 vs top 100. Now they did win at Kansas State and now get to host the Cats in a bubble elimination game. TCU must win and then beat Oklahoma to close the season. At that point they will at least have a shot with a quality win or two in the Big 12 tourney. Note there are no losses to schools beyond the top 100 so every little bit helps.
22. (54) HOUSTON 20-8: Cougars float onto the bubble but their time on this list depends on what they do in a trip to Cincinnati this week. They desperately need more meat on their nitty gritty. AAC is quite down this year beyond the top two. Houston has just two top 50 wins...Vermont and URI and just 3-5 vs top 100. Those are not at large selection numbers. But a win over Cincy at least will keep them in contention and if they can win over ECU and then maybe beat Cincy again in the AAC semis to get to the finals, they will be considered. Lose to Cincy and they are gone, done, kaput, no shot as an at large.
23. (72) OHIO STATE 16-13: Talk about soft underbelly of the bubble...that is how OSU lands here despite their 6-10 Big 10 mark and generally having a nondescript disappointment of a season. Still they have 4 top 50 (4-9) and that is better than some around the bubble. Wins over Wisky, Minnesota, Michigan and MSU would seem to put them in good position and they have a nice win over Providence. 7-12 vs top 100 would seem to need more. Just 3-8 road/neutral and that hideous loss to 287 Florida Atlantic is a huge killer on the resume. Games left at Penn State and home to Indiana will at least keep them in the games with two more top 100 wins but those games will not move the needle. OSU is going to need two quality Big 10 tourney wins which probably means making a run at least to semis if not finals. Seems like a longshot but remember they already have 4 wins vs top 7 in this league.
24. (52) GEORGIA 16-12: Have to rate UGA's chances as an at large as pretty low right now. The SOS of 20 is certainly something that has helped the overall rpi number be pretty respectable but its hard to get around the lack of quality wins. Dawgs went 0-6 vs the top 3 in the SEC. They are just 1-7 vs rpi top 50 with that win coming over bubble Vandy. 8-11 vs top 100 is pretty willing but not sure wins over UNC Asheville, Ole Miss and Geo Tech move the needle all that much. Georgia must win its last two...Auburn and then at top 50 Arkansas, that would notch two more top 100 wins and another top 50 win. In addition they probably need a run to the SEC finals and that will require a win over either Florida or Kentucky. Much to prove.
25. (95) IOWA 16-13: Iowa? Iowa a bubble team? Well again if some of these distant SEC/Big 12/ACC schools are being included as possible bubbles, Iowa should also be on this list as well.. 4-8 vs top 50 and 7-11 vs top 100 are not all that bad. Big OOC win over ISU and in league wins over Michigan, Purdue, and just recently at Maryland. Quietly they are now 8-8 in the Big 10. Usually that means alot more but the non conference schedule drags thing down. Overall with a SOS of 88, Iowa is just 8-13 vs RPI to 150 and those 13 losses mean they cannot afford another loss before the Big 10 tourney. Two losses to Illinois hurt as does the Omaha loss. The whole premise of them being on the bubble rides on having to win at Wisconsin and then in the home finale to Penn State. If they can do that, then let us seriously revisit before Big 10 tournament play begins.
26. (88) ALABAMA 16-12: Hard to make a case for the Crimson Tide now after dropping games to Georgia and Texas A&M last week. Tide were at the point where they were not going to pick up any new quality wins but just had to keep winning as much as possible. Now just 9-7 in the SEC with only a 4-11 mark vs top 100 and just two top 50 wins in Vandy and SC, there are just two many losses to mediocre competition to make a legit case for them. 6-11 vs top 150 is not a good look for the committee to see. Bama closes with Ole Miss/at Tennessee. They will need those two and then a run to the SEC finals to move close to the bubble line of 68.
27. (70) MISSISSIPPI 18-11: If Georgia is going to be on this list, I suppose Ole Miss can be here as well. However there is not much to discuss here. Like UGA, their only top 50 win was Vandy...1-8 and then just 4-11 vs top 100 does not cut it...the others Auburn 2x and Tenn. There are no OOC wins of note. True no losses outside the top 100 but they are just 7-11 vs rpi top 150. Even with wins over Bama and SC which does help the profile they will need to reach the SEC finals and still pray.
28. (61) PITTSBURGH 15-14/ (62) TENNESSEE 14-14/ (63) CLEMSON 14-14: Going to lump these bloated power conference toads, ironically they almost have the same records and line up right next to each other in the rpi rankings and all have similar SOS and nitty gritty top 50/100 stuff. Some decent wins from these schools against tough schedule but way too much losing. These schools with their awful records can be considered legit bubble schools again until they win their remaining 2 games left this season and all each reach their conference tourney finals. Seems incredibly unlikely and these teams will not even have the consolation of NIT with their poor marks.
LAST 4 IN: RHODE ISLAND, ILLINOIS STATE, CALIFORNIA, PROVIDENCE
LAST 4 OUT: VANDERBILT, GEORGIA TECH, WAKE FOREST, ILLINOIS
BAC'S NCAA Bubble Analysis and First Pecking Order: 2/27/17
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
By this rationale Vandy could get in with 15 losses which IMO is a joke. Look at the wins and their SOS. They have to beat Florida but that can happen.
This is what happens when you have a committee with virtually no one on it who has coached except for Peter Roby who coached about 25 years ago at Northeastern.
This is what happens when you have a committee with virtually no one on it who has coached except for Peter Roby who coached about 25 years ago at Northeastern.
yes Vandy can happen with 15 as can Cuse, I think these are the only two though, I think Pitt, Clemson, and Tennessee have no case.
Vandy already won at Florida..that is a huge win. Its a shame that they blew it at Kentucky...19 point lead. They have a great OOC win over Iowa State and won at tourney bound Arky and beat So Carolina. They only have one loss outside the rpi top 100 but boy that loss to 256 Missouri can really hurt.....9 top 100 wins, 4-7 vs top 50. If they beat Florida that would make 5 top 50 wins and 10 top 100 wins..that is good stuff, add maybe another one or two in SEC tourney and I think they deserve it. Their sos is 2, their non conference sos is 1.
thanks to those who like all this stuff, appreciate it, it is a work of love
absolutely not. They are just 1-3 vs top 50..one win vs a tourney team does not get you in with 6 losses beyond rpi top 100 including a loss to Penn
thank you for taking the time and effort to do this.
Your work of love is a joy to read for me [thumb2][cheers]
My point is that Wichita could not get in with 28-29 wins vs Vandy
They only have 1 Top 50 win.
Now here's a program that can't get anyone to sign a home and home deal with them and they sell out every game.
They have more than held their own in the NCAA tourney and have a recent Final 4 appearance
This years team has the largest margin of victory in the conference since 1958.
And Vandy could go ahead of them ?
Please
If you've watched both teams and think Vandy is better I would question what you know about the game.
They only have 1 Top 50 win.
Now here's a program that can't get anyone to sign a home and home deal with them and they sell out every game.
They have more than held their own in the NCAA tourney and have a recent Final 4 appearance
This years team has the largest margin of victory in the conference since 1958.
And Vandy could go ahead of them ?
Please
If you've watched both teams and think Vandy is better I would question what you know about the game.
Wichita will get a bid. It will be Vandy, Wake, Syracuse, Illinois battling things out. However Illinois State would be shaky...similar profile to Wichita but will not get the same push
For all the talk of a weak bubble, look at the all the name teams battling to get in, Wake, Vandy, Cuse, and Illinois. Lots of basketball royalty there. That's a pretty impressive last four and guarantee nobody wants to play Cuse. There will an interesting Providence v Rhode debate. Marquette now alive and what will the Committee do with Xavier? Everybody may want to play them!
who? Wichita State and Illinois State? not much overall on the rpi but the big difference is that Wichita has no bad losses and Illinois State has two outside the top 100 and one is really really bad. Plus the human element with Wichita State..eye test
Wichita State 26-4 rpi 43 SOS 200 Road/neutral 11-3 0-1 vs top 25, 1-4 vs top 50, 2-4 vs top 100...best win Illinois State, best OOC win at (76) Colorado State , no bad losses
Illinois State 24-5 rpi 35, SOS 162, Road/neutral 10-5, 0-0 vs top 25, 1-1 vs top 50, 2-3 vs top 100...best win Wichita State, best OOC win (88) New Mexcio, two losses outside the top 100 to (115) Tulsa and really bad loss to (236) Murray State
Wichita State 26-4 rpi 43 SOS 200 Road/neutral 11-3 0-1 vs top 25, 1-4 vs top 50, 2-4 vs top 100...best win Illinois State, best OOC win at (76) Colorado State , no bad losses
Illinois State 24-5 rpi 35, SOS 162, Road/neutral 10-5, 0-0 vs top 25, 1-1 vs top 50, 2-3 vs top 100...best win Wichita State, best OOC win (88) New Mexcio, two losses outside the top 100 to (115) Tulsa and really bad loss to (236) Murray State
Vandy had a 19 point lead before losing to Kentucky. I would say that proves their worth. Also they have wins at Florida and Arkansas and over Iowa State and So Carolina. They have one really bad loss to Missouri. I am not saying I would get bent out shape if they did not get a bid but one can make a case for them given the other bloated schools like Syracuse, Illinois, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Marquette that will be getting bids. They have the #2 SOS is in the country and the #1 non conference SOS. If they beat Florida and get to the SEC semis, I think they are putting on dancing shoes
recapping a huge night.....
Northwestern put on their dancing shoes and ended any questions by beating Michigan.
Illinois got a huge win that put them in position to snatch a bid.
The losses by Michigan and Michigan State I do not think hurt all that much. These two are the top of the pecking order and remain there. Not going to put them in but they are oh so close. Michigan probably in better shape than MSU who might need one Big 10 tourney win just to be on the safe side
Wake got a huge win over Louisville..needed that one, only their 2nd top 100 win but now up to 7-12 vs top 100. I still think this resume is lacking and they will need to win at Virginia Tech and get another one in the ACC tourney
Clemson get their dim hopes alive by beating NC State
Bama remains on life support after beating Ole Miss which eliminated the Rebels from any at large consideration
Arkansas fell at Florida, not going to be penalized for that, they remain about the last 8 line but big game with Georgia coming up. I think they need one more win
Georgia eeked by Auburn to keep their longshot hopes alive. Will absolutely need to be Arkansas and go deep in the SEC tourney
Tennessee is officially done after losing at LSU
Rhode Island took care of business at St Joe's but needs to keep winning as major conference schools around them are winning and pushing the Rams down the pecking order
Dayton topped VCU to win the A10 regular season title. Dayton would definitely get a bid if they do not win the A10 tourney, VCU probably needs just one more win but wouldnt hurt to go far in the A10 tourney
Kansas State stopped the bleeding by winning at TCU. KSU has at least positioned themselves closer to the last 4 out line but they are going to need quality wins in the Big 12 tourney. The loss really puts the Horned Frogs in big trouble and they will need a run to the Big 12 finals and even that might not be enough
Marquette won at Xavier to strengthen their profile. Lots of uncertainty in Big East so they are no locks yet but beating Creighton would be an enormous boost. Xavier loses for the 6th straight time. They have slipped all the way to the last 2 in/last 2 out line, next up is De Paul. A loss there could end their NCAA hopes.
USC beat WSU. Doesn't move the needle any but the Trojans had to have that one and will have to also beat Washington in the regular season finale. Not a great profile so
LAST 4 IN: XAVIER, ILLINOIS, ILLINOIS STATE, CALIFORNIA
LAST 4 OUT: WAKE FOREST, GEORGIA TECH, RHODE ISLAND, VANDERBILT
Northwestern put on their dancing shoes and ended any questions by beating Michigan.
Illinois got a huge win that put them in position to snatch a bid.
The losses by Michigan and Michigan State I do not think hurt all that much. These two are the top of the pecking order and remain there. Not going to put them in but they are oh so close. Michigan probably in better shape than MSU who might need one Big 10 tourney win just to be on the safe side
Wake got a huge win over Louisville..needed that one, only their 2nd top 100 win but now up to 7-12 vs top 100. I still think this resume is lacking and they will need to win at Virginia Tech and get another one in the ACC tourney
Clemson get their dim hopes alive by beating NC State
Bama remains on life support after beating Ole Miss which eliminated the Rebels from any at large consideration
Arkansas fell at Florida, not going to be penalized for that, they remain about the last 8 line but big game with Georgia coming up. I think they need one more win
Georgia eeked by Auburn to keep their longshot hopes alive. Will absolutely need to be Arkansas and go deep in the SEC tourney
Tennessee is officially done after losing at LSU
Rhode Island took care of business at St Joe's but needs to keep winning as major conference schools around them are winning and pushing the Rams down the pecking order
Dayton topped VCU to win the A10 regular season title. Dayton would definitely get a bid if they do not win the A10 tourney, VCU probably needs just one more win but wouldnt hurt to go far in the A10 tourney
Kansas State stopped the bleeding by winning at TCU. KSU has at least positioned themselves closer to the last 4 out line but they are going to need quality wins in the Big 12 tourney. The loss really puts the Horned Frogs in big trouble and they will need a run to the Big 12 finals and even that might not be enough
Marquette won at Xavier to strengthen their profile. Lots of uncertainty in Big East so they are no locks yet but beating Creighton would be an enormous boost. Xavier loses for the 6th straight time. They have slipped all the way to the last 2 in/last 2 out line, next up is De Paul. A loss there could end their NCAA hopes.
USC beat WSU. Doesn't move the needle any but the Trojans had to have that one and will have to also beat Washington in the regular season finale. Not a great profile so
LAST 4 IN: XAVIER, ILLINOIS, ILLINOIS STATE, CALIFORNIA
LAST 4 OUT: WAKE FOREST, GEORGIA TECH, RHODE ISLAND, VANDERBILT
One thing's for sure: Illinois can definitely not afford to lose to us Saturday. Be interesting to see how they respond to the pressure.
Is a 18-14 Sparty in?
Given the weakness of the B1G could you see the committee taking either Illinois OR MSU provided MSU finished 18-14 and Illinois finishing 20-13...and not both even if you could argue both might be more attractive than a CAL or Xavier
Given the weakness of the B1G could you see the committee taking either Illinois OR MSU provided MSU finished 18-14 and Illinois finishing 20-13...and not both even if you could argue both might be more attractive than a CAL or Xavier
I have Illinois as my next to last team IN right now
might be bias but bias exists with all the bracketologists, thats why Lunardi has Wake Forest in right now and bad mouthed Illinois two days ago saying that their stuff was inflated. They have more top 50 and top 100 wins than Wake and a better SOS. True Wake has the Louisville win now but thats just 2 top 50 wins 2-9 to Illinois 5-8. Wake is 7-12 vs top 100, Illinois is 10-12. Lunardi has Illinois as 6th team out...beyond Georgia who is 1-7 vs top 50..their only quality win is Vanderbilt...a team not even projected in the field. How does he explain that.
Lunardi biases the ACC...He currently has 10 teams in from the ACC. He is negative towards Pac 12 and Big 10. These things are somewhat political. He will adjust on selection sunday but beforehand you can see his bias. When the A10 has contender, he always overvalues them and especially St Joes.
might be bias but bias exists with all the bracketologists, thats why Lunardi has Wake Forest in right now and bad mouthed Illinois two days ago saying that their stuff was inflated. They have more top 50 and top 100 wins than Wake and a better SOS. True Wake has the Louisville win now but thats just 2 top 50 wins 2-9 to Illinois 5-8. Wake is 7-12 vs top 100, Illinois is 10-12. Lunardi has Illinois as 6th team out...beyond Georgia who is 1-7 vs top 50..their only quality win is Vanderbilt...a team not even projected in the field. How does he explain that.
Lunardi biases the ACC...He currently has 10 teams in from the ACC. He is negative towards Pac 12 and Big 10. These things are somewhat political. He will adjust on selection sunday but beforehand you can see his bias. When the A10 has contender, he always overvalues them and especially St Joes.
Cal has a very BLAH resume...no terrible losses, but no big wins. They have had a lot of opportunities to show that they, quite frankly, can't beat good teams. their best win is beating Utah at home.
I am sorry my Middle tennessee State needs a look if they don't win the tournament. I actually think they might be a better team forgetting if they deserve it or not
I am sorry my Middle tennessee State needs a look if they don't win the tournament. I actually think they might be a better team forgetting if they deserve it or not
this would be the only scenerio that they could miss....and even then its 80/20 they go. Hard to dismiss 11 top 100 wins. The Big 10 can get 8, not questioning that but what if Ohio State who many are forgetting about, yes they are on the bubble. What if OSU beats Indiana and then makes it to the Big 10 finals, perhaps thats when MSU can worry.
MSU is 6-7 vs top 50...they beat Wichita State and swept Minnesota, beat Northwestern, Michigan, Wisky, Florida Gulf Coast, all NCAA teams...how on earth could you take SHU/Xavier/Marq/Prov/Cuse over Sparty?
Every game since December 27th Illinois has had to play is a top 100 kenpom team...no breaks and nothing easy.
No way CAL deserves it over Illinois. Especially if you weight last 10
No way CAL deserves it over Illinois. Especially if you weight last 10
agree on MTSU..in fact they are up to a 10 seed....but what happens when you compare them and Illinois State..do both get in?
Cal has beaten USC and Princeton, just 1-7 vs top 50 and 4-8 vs top 100...lets see if they survive road trips to Utah and Colorado, if they lose tonight they are in deep trouble. Both they and USC have been riding the coattails of the top 3 in league, the Pac 12 is a weak conference this year if you look at how bad the bottom is.
you know I deserve some credit because a few weeks ago I kept saying...Illinois has some stuff on that resume. The bracketologists are just catching up to it now thats why they are holding them back...asleep at the wheel yet they prop up 14 loss schools with less impressive rpi stuff than Illinois. You are right, Cal shouldnt be in over Illinois, we will see soon. First Illinois needs to take care of RU, then probably need to win that opening round game against a bottom Big 10 team and perhaps knock off a team in the quarters....okay check that...looks like Illinois can finish as high as 7 if Michigan loses to Nebby but most likely in the 8-9 game against Iowa..that is doable but then comes Purdue....looks like they will have to beat Purdue to really land in the tourney...tough job but its not impossible.
Bac,
Absolutely tremendous analysis as usual with this NCAA stuff. I know it is a labor of love for you, but the time and effort you put in is outstanding.
Maybe one of these years, we will even see Rutgers name pop up on your list?(we can dream, can't we?)
Best of Luck,
Groz
Absolutely tremendous analysis as usual with this NCAA stuff. I know it is a labor of love for you, but the time and effort you put in is outstanding.
Maybe one of these years, we will even see Rutgers name pop up on your list?(we can dream, can't we?)
Best of Luck,
Groz
thanks Groz...I believe I started doing this back in Waters third year when we were on the bubble but just did not have enough quality wins to make it
At 13-11 3-8 they were as dead as a door nail. I like the fact that they are a senior dominated team.
Don't look now...IOWA is up tonight. If they win on the road at Wisconsin (a possibility) and at home to PSU they enter B1GT 18-13 10-8. 20-14 10-8 2-1 beating Purdue Maryland Michigan Wisconsin Iowa State and Rutgers. that would be an impressive resume.
Don't look now...IOWA is up tonight. If they win on the road at Wisconsin (a possibility) and at home to PSU they enter B1GT 18-13 10-8. 20-14 10-8 2-1 beating Purdue Maryland Michigan Wisconsin Iowa State and Rutgers. that would be an impressive resume.
Iowa isnt out of it, I mean Palm and Lunardi consider schools like Georgia and Alabama and Ole Miss and not Iowa and OSU...sounds like SEC bias, if they win those games they are most certainly in the mix
Gerogia had 6 cracks at FL Kentucy and USC....the feather in the cap is a win at home to Vandy.
If they had a double with LSU or Missouri I would have thrown up and tossed them aside.
If they had a double with LSU or Missouri I would have thrown up and tossed them aside.
Maybe deserves a separate thread....this year Ivy sends top 4 (out of 8) to the Palestra to determine who dances.
Take a look at this article talking about potential tiebreakers...
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/...17-Ivy-League-mens-basketball-tournament.html
Take a look at this article talking about potential tiebreakers...
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/...17-Ivy-League-mens-basketball-tournament.html
Palm now has Illinois in...he removed TCU....he has two different than me...has Wake in instead of Cuse and Rhody in instead of Wichita, he will be wrong on them
Wichita State in pass years has more than shown they belong. BAC is right and Palm is wrong.
Cuse-Ga Tech is a huge game because the loser is assured of a 15th loss if they do not win the ACC tourney....no school has been selected as an at large with that many losses. I think this is the year we will see. Cuse can sustain a loss here but Ga Tech with the poor rpi cannot afford this loss when all is said and done. Of course the ACC tourney will have alot to say.
recapping tonight..
Big 10 bubbles on the move...Iowa stuns Wisky in Madison...huge huge win. Iowa has now won at Maryland and at Iowa and has a win over Purdue as well as Michigan as well as non conference over Iowa State...resume is sneaky good despite the poor rpi overall.....5-8 vs top 50 and 8-11 vs top 100...if they do well in Big 10 tourney they can steal a bid but still might need a trip to the finals.
Cincy over Houston, Houston now done, no shot of an at large bid
Middle Tennessee St escaped disaster with a 70-67 win over 6-24 Florida International...now 26-4....will be in consideration if they do not win CUSA tourney
Utah/Cal just getting underway...I think if Cal loses this game, it bounces them out for now
full pecking order update coming tomorrow morn
Big 10 bubbles on the move...Iowa stuns Wisky in Madison...huge huge win. Iowa has now won at Maryland and at Iowa and has a win over Purdue as well as Michigan as well as non conference over Iowa State...resume is sneaky good despite the poor rpi overall.....5-8 vs top 50 and 8-11 vs top 100...if they do well in Big 10 tourney they can steal a bid but still might need a trip to the finals.
Cincy over Houston, Houston now done, no shot of an at large bid
Middle Tennessee St escaped disaster with a 70-67 win over 6-24 Florida International...now 26-4....will be in consideration if they do not win CUSA tourney
Utah/Cal just getting underway...I think if Cal loses this game, it bounces them out for now
full pecking order update coming tomorrow morn
maybe maybe not...their style could give some teams fits, depends on the matchups, I have seen teams play poorly toward the end of the year but turn it around tournament time. Their seeding is taking a hit right now...they hope to hold onto a 7 but could fall to that 8/9 game
I'm surprised you have some of these teams like Tennessee and Indiana mentioned but not Utah. If Utah were to get the 5 seed and beat Oregon State, Cal, Oregon in P-12 Tournament then lose to a UCLA-Arizona in final (or something like that), I'd think they'd have some momentum to get in the discussion....at least as good a chance of getting near the discussion as Tennessee, Alabama, Indiana
