Right now Bac prior to Tournament play, my guess is 2 from the American, A-10, MVC, and WCC. I have given ACC 9, Big 10-7 teams, Big East 5 teams, Bg 12 - 5 teams, and PAC 12 and SEC 4 teams each . That totals 64 of 68. I think the fight for the last 4 are: Rhode Island, Vandy, Marquette, Xavier, Wake Forest , California, Utah , Kansas State. I think Iowa, Illinois, Ga . Tech have to make it to the finals to leapfrog the other 8. Of course, Middle Tennessee is likely the only mid major that would likely be selected as an at large if they were to lose. I think UNC Wilmington, Vermont, Nevada, and Monmouth will not get the same respect. Going to be wild in the tournaments !
BAC'S NCAA Bubble Analysis and First Pecking Order: 2/27/17
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Just looked again at Illinois State resume, and although they are 27-5 and 17-1 and have only lost to Wichita in the last 2 months, they had 3-4 games in a weak MVC that they won by 1-2. Points. Plus a lot of early losses to Murray State, Tulsa, San Francisco at home and TCU on the road, so they really have no meat. Plus they do not have Wichita State's cred so they better win against Wichita today or they will be sweating on Selection Sunday.
recapping today....
some dance tickets punched
Wichita State routed Illinois State to win the regular season MVC title. Illinois State was in my last 4 in line before the loss but remember the numbers are weak and they sure did not pass the eye test today when they really needed it. They will be at the mercy of the bubble around them but it does not look good for them now
Winthrop wins the Big South tourney
Florida Gulf Coast wins the Atlantic Sun tourney
Iowa took care of Penn State to clinch 7th place in the Big 10 with a 10-8 mark and move them to 9-11 vs top 100 schools. They have a path if they can beat Indiana in the first round of the B10 tourney and then take down Wisconsin in the quarters.
Monmouth falls to Siena and despite the gaudy 27-6 mark look very unlikely to land an at large bid.
Michigan up early on Nebby, look good for a bid but would make it academic with a win tonight
some dance tickets punched
Wichita State routed Illinois State to win the regular season MVC title. Illinois State was in my last 4 in line before the loss but remember the numbers are weak and they sure did not pass the eye test today when they really needed it. They will be at the mercy of the bubble around them but it does not look good for them now
Winthrop wins the Big South tourney
Florida Gulf Coast wins the Atlantic Sun tourney
Iowa took care of Penn State to clinch 7th place in the Big 10 with a 10-8 mark and move them to 9-11 vs top 100 schools. They have a path if they can beat Indiana in the first round of the B10 tourney and then take down Wisconsin in the quarters.
Monmouth falls to Siena and despite the gaudy 27-6 mark look very unlikely to land an at large bid.
Michigan up early on Nebby, look good for a bid but would make it academic with a win tonight
Michigan punches their ticket with the win today and locks in
That reduces the field to just 12 spots open....Numbers crunching as I speak and will have the new updated analysis tomorrow. Lets just say I am very conservative. I think it truly is coming down to about 7 spots open and realistically 12 schools competing for them but instead tomorrows pecking order will have 21 schools competing for 12 spots.....and a sneak peak...two Big 10 schools are in the last 4 out but very much in the running for a bid.
That reduces the field to just 12 spots open....Numbers crunching as I speak and will have the new updated analysis tomorrow. Lets just say I am very conservative. I think it truly is coming down to about 7 spots open and realistically 12 schools competing for them but instead tomorrows pecking order will have 21 schools competing for 12 spots.....and a sneak peak...two Big 10 schools are in the last 4 out but very much in the running for a bid.
I was trying to land a sponsorship deal overnight but it fell through.
Update sometime this afternoon
Ilinois State and Monmouth have a combined 1 top 50 win and 3 top 100 wins, they have just 13 combined wins against the top 150. Illinois State may have a case, Monmouth does not. Criteria has always been above all getting quality wins and avoiding bad losses.That is reality for smaller conferences, everyone knows the deal. If you cannot even make the finals of your low major conference tourney then you do not belong in the NCAA tourney given you have beaten no one but Princeton. Maybe the MAAC should award the regular season conference champion the bid instead.
I suppose the Monmouths of the world can play most P6 schools they want if they are willing to go on the road.
These schools maybe should start scheduling 3-4 of these games and win half of them.
These schools maybe should start scheduling 3-4 of these games and win half of them.
Here's a heads up-----it takes 2 to schedule a game.
I know the AD at Monmouth quite well-------they did everything they could to get another road game with a P5 league and nobody would play them.
They played UNC , Memphis and South Carolina-----beat Memphis , lost at the buzzer to South Carolina and got beat badly by UNC.
It doesn't make any difference----last year they beat ND , Gtown and UCLA all on the road and didn't get a bid so that kinda shoots to shit your theory about winning half of them .
I know the AD at Monmouth quite well-------they did everything they could to get another road game with a P5 league and nobody would play them.
They played UNC , Memphis and South Carolina-----beat Memphis , lost at the buzzer to South Carolina and got beat badly by UNC.
It doesn't make any difference----last year they beat ND , Gtown and UCLA all on the road and didn't get a bid so that kinda shoots to shit your theory about winning half of them .
Exactly! Monmouth did all the right things last year and got nothing. Hard to take the Committee serious.
How did Cuse do on the road this year? Have a feeling some of the same schools go into Illinois State and they don't return with a win either. Wichita State did not.
Tourney more interesting with the Monmouths and Illinois States.
How did Cuse do on the road this year? Have a feeling some of the same schools go into Illinois State and they don't return with a win either. Wichita State did not.
Tourney more interesting with the Monmouths and Illinois States.
dont lose to Siena...dont lose to Rider...I will not shed tears to a program that lost those games...and for a coach who cannot get his team to win when it counts.
the same Cuse team that no one wanted in last year got to the final 4...its about quality wins. Schools like Cuse and Vandy have alot of them...Vandy swept Florida, beat Arky, SC, Iowa Stat. Cuse beat Duke, Miami, FSU, Wake, Virginia and oh MONMOUTH
Or the same Wichita State team that was initially deemed by the bracketologist as unworthy, wins the NIT and then two years later makes it to the final four? Illinois State from same league?
Begs the question of what would happen if others had same opportunity...
Begs the question of what would happen if others had same opportunity...
Thanks for the post. If in fact many P5 schools refused to play them on their home court there is a problem.
It is not fair to say a school can't get in a tournament because they have no top 100 wins when they can schedule them.
The NCAA, among many other things, needs to fix this.
It is not fair to say a school can't get in a tournament because they have no top 100 wins when they can schedule them.
The NCAA, among many other things, needs to fix this.
BAC, You have done an amazing job. I actually think you should take Lunardi or Palm's job. You seem to know more about the teams than either of those guys. ESPN should hire you instead of Lunardi.
Thank you....Lunardi is pretty good albeit annoying. Its Jerry Palm who is sometimes out to lunch. These two guys shill for the conferences that their network represents before they make their final selections...thats when they switch things up at the last minute and end up being pretty accurate. They use their biases to try and influence the committee and social media talk.
they played Syracuse and lost by 20...a school many are saying shouldnt get in over Monmouth, you want to get in..beat a mediocre Cuse who lost to BC and St Johns
well I disagreed with Palm, I think he was just hugging the metrics..history does say only one school with two top 100 wins or less has received a bid, I believe that was Middle Tennessee State in 2013. Wichita State was going to be the 2nd if they lost yesterday. Illinois State does not have the same advantages that the Wheat Shockers have
To be fair iowa, Illinois, etc. have also lost to a fair number of those type of teams. They just have had more cracks at playing them.
Illinois State would bother me not making it. Going 17-1 in conference in a OK conference should mean a lot.
To me it is important if these teams chose not to increase the difficulty of their schedule or couldn't.
Illinois State would bother me not making it. Going 17-1 in conference in a OK conference should mean a lot.
To me it is important if these teams chose not to increase the difficulty of their schedule or couldn't.
here are the possible bid thieves
from the bubble
Illinois
Iowa
Clemson
California
Houston
Kansas State
Utah
Georgia
Ole Miss
Georgia Tech
now if some of these schools win their league tourneys, they might knock out another school from their conference like a Cuse or a Wake or a Michigan State or a Vandy or a USC
some other bid thieves out there
Indiana
Ohio State
Richmond
BYU
Santa Clara
those last two schools are in the WCC which would send 3 schools from that league. The only other conference champ who will be considered for an at large bid is Middle Tennessee State...that is it. I do not think. UNC Wilmington, UT Alrington or Princeton has any case for an at large bid.
from the bubble
Illinois
Iowa
Clemson
California
Houston
Kansas State
Utah
Georgia
Ole Miss
Georgia Tech
now if some of these schools win their league tourneys, they might knock out another school from their conference like a Cuse or a Wake or a Michigan State or a Vandy or a USC
some other bid thieves out there
Indiana
Ohio State
Richmond
BYU
Santa Clara
those last two schools are in the WCC which would send 3 schools from that league. The only other conference champ who will be considered for an at large bid is Middle Tennessee State...that is it. I do not think. UNC Wilmington, UT Alrington or Princeton has any case for an at large bid.
So my deifinition of potential thieves we are looking at
1. non Middle Tennessee State school that wins CUSA
2. texas Tech TCU OK TEX wins Big 12
3. g tech clem pitt nc st BC wins ACC
4. St. john DePaul Georgetown wins BE
5. Ind OSU RU Neb PSU wins B1G
6. bottom half team wins SEC (definitely a possibility)
7. bottom half of PAC 12 win (not happening)
8. SMU Houston or Cincy dont win American
9. A10 bottom 7 or 8 teams win
1. non Middle Tennessee State school that wins CUSA
2. texas Tech TCU OK TEX wins Big 12
3. g tech clem pitt nc st BC wins ACC
4. St. john DePaul Georgetown wins BE
5. Ind OSU RU Neb PSU wins B1G
6. bottom half team wins SEC (definitely a possibility)
7. bottom half of PAC 12 win (not happening)
8. SMU Houston or Cincy dont win American
9. A10 bottom 7 or 8 teams win
