BAC'S NCAA Bubble Analysis and First Pecking Order: 2/27/17
- Thread starter bac2therac
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Nigel Hayes- sadly a very overated player. I wish I could say the opposite.
On the other side, Happ is very talented. It stinks that he is a sophmore.
Hayes used to be on mock drafts. Nowhere to be seen now, possibly d league or undrafted.
Swanigan on the other hand has jumped about fifteen spots. He is gone.
Trimble, gone.
On the other side, Happ is very talented. It stinks that he is a sophmore.
Hayes used to be on mock drafts. Nowhere to be seen now, possibly d league or undrafted.
Swanigan on the other hand has jumped about fifteen spots. He is gone.
Trimble, gone.
Definitely seems like not as much mid-major bubble drama this year. The A10 and American seem very down and there more teams than usual from the P5 on the bubble. Not sure if it's just an off-year or not but except for the Big East, it seems the non-P5 conferences are slipping.
IMO Trimble needs to stay----not going to be a 1st Rd pick and he needs another year of strength and conditioning.
When you are shooting 50 % on the FT line and go 1-7 with 2 bricks under a minute to play you're a liability in close games talent or no talent.
Iowa is going to be a nice club next year.
When you are shooting 50 % on the FT line and go 1-7 with 2 bricks under a minute to play you're a liability in close games talent or no talent.
Iowa is going to be a nice club next year.
A lot of the B1G talent is unusually young. Next season should be a nice year for the league if the studs stay. Unfortunately, it doesn't bode too well for us moving up.
Well Tennessee and Indiana were in discussion earlier in the week but now gone. These schools had very solid to 50 wins or 100 wins...quality, Indiana beat UNC and Kansas. Thats what gave them a chance coming into the week.
Utah came into last night game with California 1-9 vs top 100 rpi schools, sorry that does not cut it and one win over Cal who is now projected out of the tourney does not get them in discussion for me. They are 1-6 vs top 50...USC who I have projected in but no lock themselves and now 2-9 vs top 100. They are just 5-9 vs the top 150 rpi......that's FIVE wins vs the top 150...pretty horrible....15 of their wins to plus 150 schools. Their SOS is 113 and their non conferece SOS is 239. This is a school that feasted on playing bad schools. Their best out of conference win was 216 Stephen F Austin....that is a joke. They also have a loss to 287 Oregon State who is 4-25.
Do not be deceived by 20-10 and 10-7 in the Pac 12. Unpeeling the onion shows a lot of rot. Beating a mediocre call team by 30 does not change my thinking. They absolutely must win the Pac 12 tourney, here is why...they are going to be seeded 4th or 5th...meaning a quaterfinal matchup with USC or Cal. And no I do not think those move the needles. So suppose some ridiculous upset happens and they beat Oregon....so.....they still would have only 4 top 100 wins with so many warts and other schools would still have better resumes. There is literally nothing Utah can do it to overcome a bad profile at this point
As for California, that was a pathetic performance last night to lose by 30
1-7 vs top 50 and 4-9 vs top 100 does not cut it. Their lone win of note was at USC and also beat Princeton. They will need to beat Oregon/UCLA and get to the Pac 12 finals to even be in consideration and I think that may not even be enough.
1-7 vs top 50 and 4-9 vs top 100 does not cut it. Their lone win of note was at USC and also beat Princeton. They will need to beat Oregon/UCLA and get to the Pac 12 finals to even be in consideration and I think that may not even be enough.
Curious to get your thoughts on witchita state. Solid in on espn bracket and out on cbs bracket. Poor ooc schedule. Illinois state is best win. Should they be penalized for sos for their ooc. In years past they usually schedule stronger. Are they at risk if they do not make the final in their conference tournament which would be a bad loss.
Wichita State has warts because of only one top 50 win, 1-4 and only 2-4 vs top 100 (Colorado State), normally this resume would not cut it but this program is different. The SOS is 193 but note they did schedule and lose to Louisville, Michigan State, and Oklahoma State. The rpi is now up to 41. The eye test will be the justification for getting them in. And no matter how name recognition and past performance does not matter, at some point it slips in. Wichita State has the advantages that Illinios State does not have to get in. So for ISU I worry about what happens if they do not win the MVC tourney.
I think Wichita State is solidly in...bubble too weak for them to be excluded. I believe Jerry Palm is putting on some showmanship and he has people talking about his bracket....publicity.
I think Wichita State is solidly in...bubble too weak for them to be excluded. I believe Jerry Palm is putting on some showmanship and he has people talking about his bracket....publicity.
With Northwestern projected in since the last pecking order was announced, it has cut down the at large bids available to just 13.
IN
1. Michigan
2. Michigan State
3. VCU
4. USC
5. Arkansas
6. Seton Hall
7. Syracuse
8. Marquette
9. Providence
10. Illinois State
11. Illinois
12. Xavier
13. Wake Forest
OUT
14. Georgia Tech
15. Rhode Island
16. Vanderbilt
17. Kansas State
18. Iowa
19. Georgia
20. California
21. Ohio State
22. Clemson
23. TCU
24. Alabama
LAST 4 IN: WAKE FOREST, XAVIER, ILLINOIS, ILLINOIS STATE
LAST 4 OUT: GEORGIA TECH, RHODE ISLAND, VANDERBILT, KANSAS STATE
Some analysis....
Michigan and Michigan State appear safe but not quite ready to lock them in. I think there is a pretty wide gap from them to the rest right now where losses may not hurt them so much.
I think the top 5 is fairly safe...Michigan, MSU, VCU, USC, and Arky...beyond that is where everything is tight in the last 8 line. Not much seperating them and this is where even results of these teams opponents are hurting them. For example, take Marquette, the latter has two wins over Xavier but with their falling profile in the rpi its not helping them. Seton Hall's win over Xavier the other day looks less impressive as does their win over California which dropped off a cliff. However their Iowa win is looking better and better by the day. So sometimes these little movements can mean alot when the schools are so tightly clustered.
Syracuse has an important showdown with Georgia Tech who is just outside as last team out. Could bounce the YellowJackets in heading into the ACC tourney and Cuse out. Wake Forest has a big game at Va Tech that they will need to win to stay in the field heading into the ACC tourney.
Kansas State has at least put themselves in position right there on the last 4 line. Iowa has made a huge surge forward to be considered a legit bubble school. Cal has played their way from last 4 in to way out. It is going to be extremely difficult for them to work their way back in. Thats why one 30 point loss can do to a resume that was quite unspectucular while bubble schools around them with beefier profiles were winning. Ohio State is still in the running here. I do not see Utah with two top 100 wins as a viable bubble team so I am not considering them.
IN
1. Michigan
2. Michigan State
3. VCU
4. USC
5. Arkansas
6. Seton Hall
7. Syracuse
8. Marquette
9. Providence
10. Illinois State
11. Illinois
12. Xavier
13. Wake Forest
OUT
14. Georgia Tech
15. Rhode Island
16. Vanderbilt
17. Kansas State
18. Iowa
19. Georgia
20. California
21. Ohio State
22. Clemson
23. TCU
24. Alabama
LAST 4 IN: WAKE FOREST, XAVIER, ILLINOIS, ILLINOIS STATE
LAST 4 OUT: GEORGIA TECH, RHODE ISLAND, VANDERBILT, KANSAS STATE
Some analysis....
Michigan and Michigan State appear safe but not quite ready to lock them in. I think there is a pretty wide gap from them to the rest right now where losses may not hurt them so much.
I think the top 5 is fairly safe...Michigan, MSU, VCU, USC, and Arky...beyond that is where everything is tight in the last 8 line. Not much seperating them and this is where even results of these teams opponents are hurting them. For example, take Marquette, the latter has two wins over Xavier but with their falling profile in the rpi its not helping them. Seton Hall's win over Xavier the other day looks less impressive as does their win over California which dropped off a cliff. However their Iowa win is looking better and better by the day. So sometimes these little movements can mean alot when the schools are so tightly clustered.
Syracuse has an important showdown with Georgia Tech who is just outside as last team out. Could bounce the YellowJackets in heading into the ACC tourney and Cuse out. Wake Forest has a big game at Va Tech that they will need to win to stay in the field heading into the ACC tourney.
Kansas State has at least put themselves in position right there on the last 4 line. Iowa has made a huge surge forward to be considered a legit bubble school. Cal has played their way from last 4 in to way out. It is going to be extremely difficult for them to work their way back in. Thats why one 30 point loss can do to a resume that was quite unspectucular while bubble schools around them with beefier profiles were winning. Ohio State is still in the running here. I do not see Utah with two top 100 wins as a viable bubble team so I am not considering them.
To me it is the LAST 3 IN and the LAST 5 OUT.
Have to add at least 1 bid thief. Could it be Rutgers? Old Dominion (assuming Mid Ten gets at large)? Tennessee? Richmond? UCONN?
Have to add at least 1 bid thief. Could it be Rutgers? Old Dominion (assuming Mid Ten gets at large)? Tennessee? Richmond? UCONN?
Trimble will not be moved to the first round next year. Second round is the best he has got.
First round is open to kids who could go to the nba out of HS if they wanted to. The first 20 spots are for the best freshman and sophmores in the country.
Trimble will leave because second round is what he is. 1 million is not bad. He is not going to turn himself into first round unless he scores 20ppg, 6 assist, and his three point shot reaches .380-.400 and above.
NBA scouts are sophisticated and aren't fooled or influenced by statistics. Do you know what the draft talent looks like in 2017 vs. 2018? Supply of point guards?
His fate or decisions will have little or nothing to do with per game stats.
His fate or decisions will have little or nothing to do with per game stats.
Most drafts love pgs because they like to get the level of athleticism while they still have it.
If Trimble boosted his scoring, and 3pt percentage, he would jump a spot or two. There are a lot of centers and shooting guards in the 2018 class.
NO! Scouts aren't looking at PPG! They'd rather see Maryland get more Ws. They will look for improved defense. There is NO correlation to his draft spot and change in PPG NONE!
Of course I am serious. Melo Trimble's job is to help Maryland win.
If you want to get technical than yes they are looking for more consistency with his outside shot and that manifests itself in a higher 3pt Fg% and holding everything equal a higher PPG.
If I am a scout I want to see an improvement in on ball defense.
If you want to get technical than yes they are looking for more consistency with his outside shot and that manifests itself in a higher 3pt Fg% and holding everything equal a higher PPG.
If I am a scout I want to see an improvement in on ball defense.
The NBA is a business. On the top of their priority list is 1offense2defense3character
You want to see that. That is not their main concern. Defense sometimes keeps you in the NBA if you are already there. Offense gets you there, and gives you a much higher paycheck when you are there.
Another reason why Briscoe is still in Kentucky. And might possibly never see the NBA. He cannot shoot, and his offense is far from where it needs to be.
I never said that. It is just the fact that the first round is 80% freshman and sophmores. Stand out talent. Melo Trimble, unless five points per game improvement,four assist more,huge improvement in 3pt percentage, is not going to see it.
That's all. Whatever thoughts you have post on the other portion.
Back to BAC.
Amen. Thanks for reminder. PBA bowling or Professional Disc Golf much more interesting and more of a sport than NBA
Question: Why does RPI hate Syracuse so much? shouldn't high profile wins and bad losses balance out somewhat?
They hate Syracuse because their win percentage is low, their opponents win percentage is low, and their opponents opponents winning percentage is low
IMO Trimble is never going to be a first round pick, so I don't think it's about that. He's a great college player, but not sure it'll translate all that well to the NBA unless he magically starts shooting really well. For him, I think it's more about going pro (probably overseas) and getting paid. He's also a year older than his class fwiw. I think/hope he stays, but I don't think any MD fan would be mad if he left.
Vanderbilt Ri and Fl. Had there chance adding mid ten. If they won 2 of those 4 theyd be in. They won 0
alot of early results...
of course the biggie...Illinois losing to Rutgers...thats a bad loss on the resume that did not have a loss to a plus 150 rpi school let alone a top 100.....I think it would be premature to eliminate Illinois from the bubble. I see people saying that already and while I do not think they capable of making a B10 tourney run, there are simply not very many bubble schools right now. Illinois probably still in the last 4-5 out right now. But what a huge blown opportunity today
Cal and Georgia both lost. I think realistically these teams need to get to the finals of their conference tourneys to have any shot...they are behind Illinois because they do not have many quality wins.
Michigan State lost a heartbreaker to Maryland, great effort but another close loss. I still think they will be alright when all is said and done and that Illinois loss helped too. If they can win their first round B10 game I cannot see them left out
VCU took care of George Mason and looking really good right now
Arkansas with that win over Georgia may have just moved themselves in
Marquette beat Creighton which is yet another top 50. They are looking more and more likely but with so many BE bubbles, I hesitate to lock any of those schools in before the BE tourney results roll in
Providence held serve vs St Johns
SHU losing at Butler, no shame there but MU moving ahead of them in pecking order....but they have just tied the game up....would be a huge win for them if they come back on road
Xavier stopped the bleeding by beating De Paul but really needs that first round BE tourney game too
Illinois State rolling to MVC final
Vandy got a big time win over Florida that right now puts them in the field replacing Illinois
Kansas State knocked off Texas Tech to get an important win, they are right there but need a quality win or two in the Big 12 tourney to vault in
Ohio State is done after their loss to Indiana
just 10 schools left on the OUT side of the bubble
of course the biggie...Illinois losing to Rutgers...thats a bad loss on the resume that did not have a loss to a plus 150 rpi school let alone a top 100.....I think it would be premature to eliminate Illinois from the bubble. I see people saying that already and while I do not think they capable of making a B10 tourney run, there are simply not very many bubble schools right now. Illinois probably still in the last 4-5 out right now. But what a huge blown opportunity today
Cal and Georgia both lost. I think realistically these teams need to get to the finals of their conference tourneys to have any shot...they are behind Illinois because they do not have many quality wins.
Michigan State lost a heartbreaker to Maryland, great effort but another close loss. I still think they will be alright when all is said and done and that Illinois loss helped too. If they can win their first round B10 game I cannot see them left out
VCU took care of George Mason and looking really good right now
Arkansas with that win over Georgia may have just moved themselves in
Marquette beat Creighton which is yet another top 50. They are looking more and more likely but with so many BE bubbles, I hesitate to lock any of those schools in before the BE tourney results roll in
Providence held serve vs St Johns
SHU losing at Butler, no shame there but MU moving ahead of them in pecking order....but they have just tied the game up....would be a huge win for them if they come back on road
Xavier stopped the bleeding by beating De Paul but really needs that first round BE tourney game too
Illinois State rolling to MVC final
Vandy got a big time win over Florida that right now puts them in the field replacing Illinois
Kansas State knocked off Texas Tech to get an important win, they are right there but need a quality win or two in the Big 12 tourney to vault in
Ohio State is done after their loss to Indiana
just 10 schools left on the OUT side of the bubble
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Seton Hall is going to beat Butler...huge win for them....I will hesitate to declare any locks until numbers crunching Sunday night and Monday when I do the update heading into conference tourney time but they are looking very very good right now....like 85/15 likely.
TCU loses at Oklahoma, they are finished.....that makes 9 on the OUT line left
22 schools....13 bids...again I will wait until Monday and after all the weekend results to numbers crunch and lock anyone in.
22 schools....13 bids...again I will wait until Monday and after all the weekend results to numbers crunch and lock anyone in.
also Alabama blew a lead and lost at Tennesse...I see no path for Alabama to make NCAA as an at large even if they make the SEC finals...that slices the list down to 21 schools, 13 spots open, 8 on the wrong side
Clemson wins at BC to keep their slim hopes alive
Cuse took a big step toward locking in by avoiding the loss to Ga Tech, going to be tough to keep them out now. Meanwhile Ga Tech killed themselves with the loss and it will take a trip to the ACC finals to probably get in
Wake came from way back and now are in the closing seconds of winning at Virginia Tech. This is the kind of win they needed to add to their resume. They had the best week ever with a win over Louisville and now a road win at Virginia Tech, its their 3 top 50 win and now 8-12 vs top 100. In a good spot before the ACC tourney....is the 10th ACC team in right now.
Cuse took a big step toward locking in by avoiding the loss to Ga Tech, going to be tough to keep them out now. Meanwhile Ga Tech killed themselves with the loss and it will take a trip to the ACC finals to probably get in
Wake came from way back and now are in the closing seconds of winning at Virginia Tech. This is the kind of win they needed to add to their resume. They had the best week ever with a win over Louisville and now a road win at Virginia Tech, its their 3 top 50 win and now 8-12 vs top 100. In a good spot before the ACC tourney....is the 10th ACC team in right now.
some late results....
USC took care of Washington in a much needed one but still are in that last 8 in grouping so winning a Pac 12 tourney game might be wise to be safe
Rhody pushed into overtime but survives Davidson to keep their hopes alive. Work to do and with Power 6 bubble schools winning around them yesterday they will need to make the A10 tourney finals to have a more than 50/50 shot of landing a bid
Not alot of action today but a few big ones...
Wichita State-Illinois State for the MVC tourney title and NCAA autobid, losers lands on the bubble.
Michigan in very good shape can lock in with a win at Nebraska
Iowa can keep their hopes alive heading into the B10 tourney by taking care of Penn State
USC took care of Washington in a much needed one but still are in that last 8 in grouping so winning a Pac 12 tourney game might be wise to be safe
Rhody pushed into overtime but survives Davidson to keep their hopes alive. Work to do and with Power 6 bubble schools winning around them yesterday they will need to make the A10 tourney finals to have a more than 50/50 shot of landing a bid
Not alot of action today but a few big ones...
Wichita State-Illinois State for the MVC tourney title and NCAA autobid, losers lands on the bubble.
Michigan in very good shape can lock in with a win at Nebraska
Iowa can keep their hopes alive heading into the B10 tourney by taking care of Penn State
Illinois State vs P6 bubble team. Don't you have to take Illinois State?
How many 18-13 and 19-14 teams are you going to stuff in?
Illinois of the world are going to lose to RU a bunch of times if they play them 18 times. MVC is full of RUs and WS and Ist won a lot of conference games
How many 18-13 and 19-14 teams are you going to stuff in?
Illinois of the world are going to lose to RU a bunch of times if they play them 18 times. MVC is full of RUs and WS and Ist won a lot of conference games
MVC is bad this year...Jerry Palm said that in only once in 30 years has a school with just 2 top 100 rpi wins given a NCAA at large bid, that is why he is currently projecting the MVC a one bid league. However I think Wichita State will become the 2nd all time, Illinois State not so sure, yesterday was not good news for them as most of the bubble schools actually improved their standing.
I think a better question to ask is would you take Rhode Island or Illinois State.....say Rhody gets to the A10 final which gives them their 9th or 10th top 100 wins do you take them as a 3rd team from the A10 or does Illinois State deserve it with only one win over Wichita State and another over New Mexico.
I think a better question to ask is would you take Rhode Island or Illinois State.....say Rhody gets to the A10 final which gives them their 9th or 10th top 100 wins do you take them as a 3rd team from the A10 or does Illinois State deserve it with only one win over Wichita State and another over New Mexico.
