Okay grab a cup of java and spend sometime getting to know the 2018 NCAA tourney bubble
32 Autobids
ACC: Virginia
AMERICA EAST: Vermont
AMERICAN: Cincinnati
ATLANTIC SUN: Florida Gulf Coast
ATLANTIC 10: Rhode Island
BIG EAST: Xavier
BIG SKY: Montana
BIG SOUTH: UNC Asheville
BIG WEST: UC Irvine
BIG 10: Michigan State
BIG 12: Kansas
COLONIAL: Charleston
CUSA: Middle Tennessee State
HORIZON: Northern Kentucky
IVY: Harvard
MAAC: Rider
MIDAMERICAN: Buffalo
MEAC: North Carolina A&T
MVC: Loyola
MWC: Nevada
NORTHEAST: Wagner
OHIO VALLEY: Murray State
PAC 12: Arizona
PATRIOT: Bucknell
SEC: Auburn
SOUTHERN: UNC Greensboro
SOUTHLAND: Nicholls State
SUN BELT: Louisiana
SWAC: Arkansas Pine Bluff
SUMMIT: South Dakota State
WAC: New Mexico State
WEST COAST: Gonzaga
17 projected at large locks: Duke, Clemson, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, Florida State, Wichita State, Villanova, Seton Hall, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Kentucky, Tennessee, St Mary's
That takes care of 49 of the 68 available spots. That leaves 19 spots open. I have identified 33 schools on or near the bubble. Note I tend to be conservative with locking schools ins. Here is the pecking order....
IN
1. (31) MIAMI: 20-8: Canes would appear to be real close after winning the games they needed to vs BC and ND last week. Tough games at UNC and home to Miami remain but not sure they even need to win those. It would take a pretty unlikely scenerio around the entire bubble to imagine them missing out but since we err on the conservative side here we shall keep Miami a whisker away from locked in status. Canes have gone 4-0 against ACC bubbles NC State, UL, and FSU and that win over Va Tech looking better now. Non conference the win over Middle Tennessee State is solid but Canes at 157 non conference SOS did not exactly schedule strong. Still 9 wins for a ACC team with just one just one really bad loss at Ga Tech. 4-5 vs Quadrant 1 and 2-2 vs Q2 seems solid enough.
2. (58) FLORIDA 18-11: Gators have quite the interesting profile. A whopping 8-4 in Q1 games and yet 3-7 vs Q2. One thing it shows is that the Gators have played a tough schedule, winning alot and losing alot. That number is dicey if they cannot win one of their last 2 at Bama and home to Kentucky. That dreaded 14 loss number comes up yet again. Yet if any school can make it with 14 losses,it figures to be UF. Those wins...those wins....Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Baylor, Arky, road wins at Missouri, A&M, KY. The Gators win over Auburn though over the weekend might have them resting easy. Going to be hard to make a case to leave them out, even with alot of losses. Just too much good here.
3. (33) CREIGHTON 19-9: That win over Villanova may have just been the Bluejays 2nd Qudrant 1 win but its impact is worth about 4 of them. The Jays resume has generally been solid as they have 5 Q2 wins and really avoided any bad loss..worse loss was to Marquette. Wins over bubbles UCLA and Nebraska plus splitting league games with SHU, Butler, PC just needed that one pop to cap things off and now they have. Creighton is that close that all they need is a win this week over De Paul to seal the deal and avoid playing their way out with a bad loss to the Demons and then at Marquette.
4. (30) ARKANSAS 20-9: Razorback got a big road win at Alabama to gain some seperation from the other SEC bubbles. Now with 5 Quadrant 1 wins, they look pretty close. Last two are Auburn and at Missouri, of course any one win would lock them in but Arky still seems safe even if they drop both. Still playing it conservative let's leave them just out for now. They have a neutral OOC win over Oklahoma and did beat Minnesota when the Gophers were for real. In league they have compiled wins vs Tennesse, Missouri, A&M, and at Bama. Their only real bad loss was LSU at home and is that really a bad loss. Sure there can be more here but the schedule is relatively solid at 40 and even though the road mark of 3-6 could be better, they seem to be a safe bet.
5. (19) TCU 20-9: Frogs look very close following their win over Baylor this weekend. Lot of good things here....4-7 vs Q1 and 4-2 vs Q2..SOS of 13, overall rpi of 19 is highest among the schools not locked in yet. Quality wins over WVU, St Bonnies, Nevada. They swept bubble Baylor and there is no loss outside Q 2 although that Vandy loss still seems like a bad one. Bears have done enough to play their way into the field, their job is to make sure that they do not play their way out. One win in their last 2 of KSU and at Texas Tech locks them, certainly not an easy stretch of games and losing both could slide them down the list and with alot of power 5 bubbles with similar type resumes, that is when things could get a bit murkier for their chances.
6. (34) OKLAHOMA 17-11: That win over Kansas State stopped a 6 game losing skid as the Sooners were teetering on the verge of playing themselves out of the tournament. Despite the losing, the Sooners have already amassed enough quality wins to get in the field. Their issue is just taking care of business so they do not play themselves out. With a 6-8 mark vs Quad 1 schools that is among the best around the bubble. OU got it done bigly in non conference play winning neutral site games with Wichita State, Oregon, and USC. In league they have that feather in their cap win over Kansas, swept TCU and took down Texas Tech. Throw in the Baylor and KSU wins and yeah they have more than enough beef on the resume. So what could go wrong..they travel to desperate Baylor and then the Sooners host ISU who already beat them once. At 7-9 in league, Sooners want to avoid that dreaded 7-11 league mark which has almost no history of being selected as an at large. Recommend they win two just to be sure but most likely a win over Baylor would still be enough.
7. (42) ARIZONA STATE 19-9: Their wins would indicate that they are safely in but their 7-9 mark in the 5 rated conference gives major pause. Yes conference marks are not part of the criteria, but the Pac 12 is in freefall for many reason and has 5-6 schools with similar profiles hanging around the bubble. No way ASU makes the tourney with a 7-11 conference mark. Its about taking care of business and beating Cal and Stanford. Their overall profile is a bit better than their fellow Pac 12 bubbles...4-4 vs Quadrant 1 and 3-4 vs Quadrant 2. OOC was where they were quite strong with wins over Kansas, Kansas State, and Xavier....thats two possible one seeds folks. In league again less successful, wins over USC, UCLA and Utah but they lost twice to Zona. Its body of work and even though that Oregon State loss was hideous, the Sun Devils hopes rest on just making sure they do not play their way out. One win might be enough to do the trick.
8. (35) BUTLER 19-10: Rousing win over Creighton but the Dogs look a tad below the Jays in the pecking order. With two tough road games at SHU and SJU to close the year they will have to be careful. Now with a win over Villanova and wins over Ohio State and Utah OOC and splits with PC/Creighton, they are only 3-8 vs Q1 and 4-1 vs Q2. They do not want to lose both and put pressure to deliver a win or two in the BE tourney. A simple split of those last 2 should be enough to get them in. The overall SOS is strong at 22 and they have just one bad loss at Georgetown.
9. (27) TEXAS A&M 18-11: Very strong overall rpi in large part due to that SOS of 6 and non conference of 14. Aggies did alot of their work in non conference activity. A win at USC and neutral site wins over WVU and PSU lead the way plus throw in a sneaky good one vs Buffalo. In league recent wins over Kentucky and a big win at Auburn has helped that sagging conference mark of 7-9. So while they have 10 Q1&2 wins combined with 5 in each, that 7-9 league mark gives pause until they can win one more. Do not want to be 4 games under 500 in league with the possibility of facing a 14th loss in the SEC tourney. So its simply for A&M...either win at Georgia or beat Alabama at home and they dance. Lose both and they will have played themselves toward the last 4 in line meaning they need to reverse the trend in the SEC tourney.
10. (20) HOUSTON 22-6: Cougars have done enough to get in. For them its a matter of not screwing up in their final 2 of at SMU and UConn. Win those and they are in. Lose one or two and they will have to wait until sometime next week to lock in or float near the cut line. Still the numbers look strong here. A whopping 6 Q1 wins. Non conference wins over bubbles Providence and Arkansas plus league wins over Cincinnati and Wichita State. There is really bad loss to 244 Drexel here as well as a Q3 loss to Tulane but these losses shouldn't come into play unless the Cougars make them come into play.
11. (23) SAINT BONAVENTURE 22-6: Bonnies' job is to keep winning. Such is life when you are the 2nd place team in the 10th rated conference. The A10 being down this year means league games do not offer many opportunities for quality wins but do carry chances for landmines. STBU avoided two last week and now have won 10 in a row, they will need to keep going for two more with Davidson and at St Louis next. Bonnies are up to 4 Q1 wins and have another 4 Q2 wins. Highlights are URI in league but some really nice road/neutral wins over Buffalo, Vermont, Syracuse. There is just that one real bad loss at St Joes and another one less so at Dayton.
12. (44) PROVIDENCE 18-11: Friars are another school that has to worry about the bulky number of losses creeping up on them. Obviously it will be tough to win at Xavier but they really need that St Johns game to avoid the possibility of 14 losses after the BE tourney. Win that and they should be fairly safe. Remember they have wins over Xavier and Villanova. Those wins will keep even though they are just 3-7 in Q1, the other win being neutral site over Washington which was their only OOC win of note. They are 5-1 in Q2 and show wins over Butler and Creighton at home. Could there be more...sure but it will be hard to find schools with 2 better wins than they have.
13. (43) MISSOURI 17-11: Tigers have dropped 3 straight, picking up 2 Q3 losses along the way and that is not a good trend heading toward the end of the season. While they do have a strong 6-7 mark vs Q1 schools and another 4 vs Q2, they seem to be trying to play their way out of the tournament. Games at Vandy and Arky are left. They would do themselves well to win both but not slipping at Vandy might be enough. They have the wins over Tenn/A&M/KY so thats a pretty good trifecta but non conference wins are missing here....the best is UCF and note the loss to Illinois. Seen alot of SEC schools with similar profiles go from virtual lock a few weeks before selection sunday to last 4 out on selection sunday...would not be surprised.
14. (63) KANSAS STATE 20-9: Unlike some other Big 12 bubbles, KSU has a decent conference mark but yet still a dearth of quality wins. Just 3-8 vs Quadrant 1, that includes just TCU and wins at Texas and Baylor. They did win over OU which is close to a Q1 win. Unfortunately for the Cats they went 0-6 against the top 3 in the Big 12 so no feather in their cap wins to flaunt. OOC show a woeful mark of 323 and that will be looked at if KSU cannot lock in before the Big 12 tourney. Games at TCU and home to Baylor remain. Win both and they are in. Lose both and they are out unless they make a deep run in the Big 12 tourney. A split keeps them on the good side of the bubble but still not totally safe. Could benefit from the implosion of a couple of other Big 12 and Pac 12 bubbles.
15. (41) ALABAMA 17-12: Tide have dropped 3 in a row and despite some good stuff here have moved into dangerous territory. The sheer number of losses is the biggest concern now. Bama must win one of their last 2 or the prospect of heading into selection sunday with 15 losses will send them to the NIT. The last two are not easy...Florida and at A&M. Shame they are sputtering because they have 5 Q1 wins and another 6 in Q2...11 wins total is only rivaled by Florida among the bubble. Yet some of those wins may not be as good as they seem. Not to say that wins over URI and OU out of conference and in league wins over Auburn, Tennessee, A&M,at Florida are not quality. Its just that Bama has left the door open to play their way out. Yes the SOS of 7 is brilliant but note that 2-7 road mark. So while they will need one to stay alive, they will also need to pick up a win or 2 in the SEC tourney to stay on the right side of the bubble
16. (28) USC 21-9: Trojans helping their profile by winning last week while the Pac 12 crumbled around them. Their 4 Q1 wins are a bit deceiving..road wins at Utah and Oregon are okay but these are teams not projected in the tournament. Their best wins are neutral site wins over Middle Tennessee State and New Mexico State, two mid major schools. In 2nd place, just a half game behind Arizona they still could win the Pac 12 as unbelievable as it sounds. There is a pretty bad Q4 loss to Princeton and note losses to bubbles OU and A&M. Overall this resume is rather bland but its all about continuing to win. USC finishes by hosting UCLA, a win there can give them seperation from some other Pac 12 bubbles and with a win in the quarters they probably can punch their ticket. Lose there and all bets are off as other schools trying to play their way into the field
17. (56) UCLA 19-10: Bruins road trip to the Rockies proved deadly with losses to Utah and Colorado. With another rather bland resume, it makes their game at USC a must win for them or they will need a deep Pac 12 tourney run to solidfy their position in the field. Their big win was at Arizona and in league yeah they beat Utah, Washington and USC but those were all at home. Even with the Zona win that road mark is a red flag at 2-7. 3-6 vs Q1 and 3-2 vs Q2 are some wobbly metrics. They do have a OOC win over Kentucky as a plus but also a bad Q3 loss to Oregon State. Sitting in a precarious spot right now
18. (52) WASHINGTON 19-10: Huskies profile suffers because they benefitted from an easier Pac 12 schedule that saw them play the Arizona schools and USC/UCLA only once...so while they swept those Arizona schools both at home and did win at USC, that is basically all they have to show for it in the Pac 12...is that enough....well if you add in the feather in the cap win over Kansas on a neutral court you can make a case but this profile looks vulnerable with such a large Pac 12 bubble....3 Q1 wins and just 2 Q2 wins...5-8 combined in that grouping is a little sketchy. Note they got swept by bubble Utah and have a nasty loss to Oregon State. Like all the Pac 12 bubbles more wins are needed and they absolutely need to dispatch of the Oregon schools this week
19. (39) LOUISVILLE 19-10: Cards really needed that win at Va Tech after getting hammered by Duke. Still the resume is rather flimsy here...roads wins at Notre Dame and FSU make up that 3-8 Quad 1 mark and they are just 2-2 vs Q2. 0-4 vs top in ACC, best OOC win was just Memphis. So really there is work to do in the final two....Cards have a chance for that feather in their cap win with Virginia coming into town. Win that and win at NC State and case closed, they are dancing. Split those and they will have to sweat it out having to pick up another quality win or two in the ACC tourney to garner a an at large bid.
OUT
20. (59) NEBRASKA 22-9: Cornhuskers are clearly the most controversial bubble team and such a difficult team and profile for the selection committee to evaluate properly. There are some truly awful things on this resume....a non conference SOS of 278 which is only 105 overall. 19 of their 22 wins come from Q3 or 4 with a whopping 11 of them from Q4. They have only Q1 win and 2 Q2 wins. Their best OOC win was 101 rated BC. They lost to a bad Illinois team. Perhaps thats the loss that they could not afford, Nebby finished 13-5 in Big 10 play, 14-4..how could the selection committee deny that. Still something has to be said for 13-5 and 4th place in the Big 10 right? Well intangibles officially do not count. Yet the Huskers score high here and most certainly pass the so called eye test which has come into play with the selection committee before. Can the human rationale for Nebraska overcome the computer stuff which screams no and is riding on just a home win over Michigan to make its case. At minimum Nebraska needs to be Michigan as if they do not, they almost certainly will not dance. If they can beat MSU and make the Big 12 finals, they are in no question but if they do not thats is when the committee really has a tough call to make. Certainly how some of the SEC, ACC, Pac 12, and Big 12 bubbles finish will have a huge impact on their chances.
21. (64) BAYLOR 16-12: after working their way into the last 4 in with a string of quality wins, the Bears have played their way back to the last 4 out line after failing to follow up by losing to WVU and TCU. Tough to get an at large with 14 losses and that is why the Bears are facing must wins in bubble showdowns this week with Oklahoma and KSU. A split would probably mean they would need a Big 12 tourney final appearance, two losses and they would have to win the tourney..two wins and they are likely safe. They have an overall SOS of 22 working in their favor plus 4 Q1 wins...Kansas, Texas Tech and Creighton among them but 4-10 vs Q1 and 2-2 vs Q2 seem middling. They have no loss outside Quadrant 2.
22. (46) SYRACUSE 18-11: Orange could not pull any upsets vs Duke or UNC and now are must win mode for their final two of at BC and home to Clemson. That latter game would boost their weak Q1 numbers of 2-7. They are riding on road wins at Miami and Louisville and that just does not cut the mustard. OOC there was a win over Buffalo. Note that the SOS numbers are a big plus...15 overall and 21 non conference. It might be two bad losses to Wake and Ga Tech that come into play when evaluating them. Thinking is that they are going to have make a deep ACC tourney run to get on the good side of the bubble. Possible but not probable
23. (57) TEXAS 17-13: Horns are in a heap of trouble right now. They hit their 13th loss tonight and that is a scary proposition as they would be guaranteed a 14th loss if they do not win the Big 12 tourney. It means that their final game hosting WVU on Saturday means everything to their at large chances. Lose and they must win the Big 12 tourney as they simply will not be selected as a 15 loss team. The sheer amount of losses is just negating a lot of good they did earlier in the year. Horns are 5-10 vs Q1 so that reflects not only some big wins but a strong SOS of 14. Texas won neutral site games vs Butler and Alabama. In the Big 12 the top rated conference in the country, they beat Texas Tech, TCU and swept Oklahoma. Not only will they have to beat WVU but probably going to need another Quad 1 win in the Big 12 tourney. Not a good spot to be in right now.
24. (45) BOISE STATE 21-6: Broncs avoided any slip ups last week but still are up against it due to the lack of Q1 or Q2 wins. Their case is resting on a home win over Loyola Chicago and a road win over Oregon. The sheer number of wins is okay at 21 and two more in the regular season plus two more in the MWC tourney would put them at 25...would that be enough should they fall to Nevada for a third time. . It could be but alot would depend on some bloated Power 5 conference schools playing their way out of the tournament. That nonconference SOS of 217 and loss to Utah State loom large.
25. (84) PENN STATE 19-11: Nittany Lions had an opportunity with 3 Q1 games to end the season but they lost all of them and none more costly than the last one at Nebraska which put the Huskers in the drivers seat if anyone can get a 5th bid from the Big 10. Lions are just 2-7 vs Quad 1 and 2-2 vs Quad 2. A sweep of OSU and only a win over Montana in non conference play where the SOS is 254. Not going to get it done for them. Seeded 7th in league they must take down OSU for a third time but will also need a win vs Purdue in the semis. So its make the finals of the Big 10 for the Lions to get there...not entirely impossible, other than that PSU could be a favorite to win the NIT
26. (61) MISSISSIPPI STATE 20-8: Bulldogs have stealthly moved into bubble consideration with a huge needed road win at Texas A&M. MSU now just 2-7 at home and thats a big obstacle to overcome as well as the 308 non conference SOS. However the A&M did put them at 3-6 in Quadrant 1 and they are 4-2 in Q2. Still their only other big wins were Arkansas, Missouri, and Alabama..all bubble schools but also losses to bubble schools Florida, Missouri and Alabama. They clearly have much ground to gain on other SEC schools with better wins and better SOS. An opportunity for another Q1 win vs Tennessee but that road game at LSU is also a must. Win those two and get another Q1 win in the SEC tourney and their profile will start looking a lot better.
27. (55) UTAH 18-10: mixed bag for the week for the Utes, they beat fading UCLA but didnt take care of business at home vs USC. That's an issue because USC has gained seperation from some of the other other Pac 12 bubbles. As said earlier the overall profile of the Pac 12 is freefalling which simply means the Utes need to distinguish themselves in the Pac 12 tourney and that probably means making the finals. Non conference just a win over fading Missouri and that 21 non conference mark is a red flag here. Just not enough beef here....beating Washington 2x, ASU and UCLA for 6 total Q1 and Q2 wins is meh central.
28. (81) LSU 16-12: Tigers could not afford to lose that game at Georgia. Like the Dogs, the sheer number of losses in league and overall amount of losses plus the poor rpi are a huge issue now. Its a shame because there are things to like on their profile..wins over Houston, Michigan, a sweep of A&M and Arkansas. 6-6 vs Q1. The last two of at So Carolina and home to bubble Mississippi State are Q2 games not Q1. That OOC sos of 146 is below the other SEC bubbles. Realistically will probably need a trip to the SEC finals to move close enough to the bubble last 4 in line
29. (70) GEORGIA 16-12: That was a costly loss at SC for the Bulldogs so while they recovered by beating LSU, they know are in must win mode for their final 2 of Texas A&M and at Tennessee. Sweeping them would even their SEC mark at 9-9 while giving them two more Q1 wins. They do have 4 of them currently...St Mary's, Marquette, Florida, and Tennessee so it would bolster their argument somewhat heading into the SEC tourney. But they have a lot of ground to make up vs other SEC bubbles with better profiles meaning that a deep SEC run will be likely. Meanwhile a loss in either of their two remaining games would mean they are staring at 14 losses as at large and as stated before thats an almost impossible spot to overcome.
30. (78) MARQUETTE 16-12: For a team that came into the week hanging out in the nether regions of the bubble, losing to Big East bottom feeder De Paul was likely a death knell for the Warriors at large hopes. Their final two of at Gtown and home to Creighton will not move the needle much and unless they make an unlikely run to the BE finals, they really are not in the realistic hunt. 4-7 vs Q1 and 3 more wins in Q2, a sweep of SHU and road wins at Creighton and PC are not enough given how much losing they did.
31 (68) NOTRE DAME 16-12: Any and all hope for Irish rests with winning at Virginia to close the season and of course beating Pitt before that. Wins just are not there to offset the sheer amount of losing. This isnt the type of profile to get an at large with 14 losses so its beat UVA then pick up some more quality wins in the ACC tourney. Nice OOC win over Wichita St and there wins over FSU, NCST and at Cuse but the 2-6 mark vs Q1 will not cut it given all the other negatives which include 3 Q3 losses.
32. (72) OREGON 19-10: Wins over the Arizona schools have put the Ducks into bubble consideration, however with the Pac 12 sagging big time overall and the number of Pac 12 schools hovering around the mendoza line, its looking like Oregon will have to make a run to the Pac 12 tourney finals to have any legit case. Their best non conference win was at Fresno State and that combined with the 223 OOC SOS does not score them any points there. There are wins over UCLA, Washington, and another win over ASU but that is it. Ducks have road trips to the Washington schools which they must sweep and winning at Washington will at least add to their Q 1 total but a loss in either of them means they will need to win the Pac 12 tourney.
33. (102) OKLAHOMA STATE 16-13: The overall rpi is trash and the non conference SOS of 286 is a huge issue. With 13 losses, OSU is another school that would hit that dangerous 14 loss mark as an at large. The ONLY path they have is to take care of ISU at home and complete the season sweep of Kansas which would give them their 5th Quadrant 1 win..remember they beat WVU, Texas Tech as well as FSU. They then would probably have to make a run to the Big 12 finals to steal a bid. Longshot for sure but hey this team beat Kansas on the road plus the 2nd place team on the road in the Big 12 and beat the third place team last week. So they are the zombie team of the field until they die off.
Projected conference tourney winners from one bid leagues that will receive at large consideration if they do not win their conference tournaments which could steal bids off of the bubble: Buffalo, Louisiana, Loyola-Chicago, and Middle Tennessee State
LAST 4 IN: LOUISVILLE, WASHINGTON, UCLA, USC
LAST 4 OUT: NEBRASKA, BAYLOR, SYRACUSE, TEXAS
32 Autobids
ACC: Virginia
AMERICA EAST: Vermont
AMERICAN: Cincinnati
ATLANTIC SUN: Florida Gulf Coast
ATLANTIC 10: Rhode Island
BIG EAST: Xavier
BIG SKY: Montana
BIG SOUTH: UNC Asheville
BIG WEST: UC Irvine
BIG 10: Michigan State
BIG 12: Kansas
COLONIAL: Charleston
CUSA: Middle Tennessee State
HORIZON: Northern Kentucky
IVY: Harvard
MAAC: Rider
MIDAMERICAN: Buffalo
MEAC: North Carolina A&T
MVC: Loyola
MWC: Nevada
NORTHEAST: Wagner
OHIO VALLEY: Murray State
PAC 12: Arizona
PATRIOT: Bucknell
SEC: Auburn
SOUTHERN: UNC Greensboro
SOUTHLAND: Nicholls State
SUN BELT: Louisiana
SWAC: Arkansas Pine Bluff
SUMMIT: South Dakota State
WAC: New Mexico State
WEST COAST: Gonzaga
17 projected at large locks: Duke, Clemson, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, Florida State, Wichita State, Villanova, Seton Hall, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Kentucky, Tennessee, St Mary's
That takes care of 49 of the 68 available spots. That leaves 19 spots open. I have identified 33 schools on or near the bubble. Note I tend to be conservative with locking schools ins. Here is the pecking order....
IN
1. (31) MIAMI: 20-8: Canes would appear to be real close after winning the games they needed to vs BC and ND last week. Tough games at UNC and home to Miami remain but not sure they even need to win those. It would take a pretty unlikely scenerio around the entire bubble to imagine them missing out but since we err on the conservative side here we shall keep Miami a whisker away from locked in status. Canes have gone 4-0 against ACC bubbles NC State, UL, and FSU and that win over Va Tech looking better now. Non conference the win over Middle Tennessee State is solid but Canes at 157 non conference SOS did not exactly schedule strong. Still 9 wins for a ACC team with just one just one really bad loss at Ga Tech. 4-5 vs Quadrant 1 and 2-2 vs Q2 seems solid enough.
2. (58) FLORIDA 18-11: Gators have quite the interesting profile. A whopping 8-4 in Q1 games and yet 3-7 vs Q2. One thing it shows is that the Gators have played a tough schedule, winning alot and losing alot. That number is dicey if they cannot win one of their last 2 at Bama and home to Kentucky. That dreaded 14 loss number comes up yet again. Yet if any school can make it with 14 losses,it figures to be UF. Those wins...those wins....Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Baylor, Arky, road wins at Missouri, A&M, KY. The Gators win over Auburn though over the weekend might have them resting easy. Going to be hard to make a case to leave them out, even with alot of losses. Just too much good here.
3. (33) CREIGHTON 19-9: That win over Villanova may have just been the Bluejays 2nd Qudrant 1 win but its impact is worth about 4 of them. The Jays resume has generally been solid as they have 5 Q2 wins and really avoided any bad loss..worse loss was to Marquette. Wins over bubbles UCLA and Nebraska plus splitting league games with SHU, Butler, PC just needed that one pop to cap things off and now they have. Creighton is that close that all they need is a win this week over De Paul to seal the deal and avoid playing their way out with a bad loss to the Demons and then at Marquette.
4. (30) ARKANSAS 20-9: Razorback got a big road win at Alabama to gain some seperation from the other SEC bubbles. Now with 5 Quadrant 1 wins, they look pretty close. Last two are Auburn and at Missouri, of course any one win would lock them in but Arky still seems safe even if they drop both. Still playing it conservative let's leave them just out for now. They have a neutral OOC win over Oklahoma and did beat Minnesota when the Gophers were for real. In league they have compiled wins vs Tennesse, Missouri, A&M, and at Bama. Their only real bad loss was LSU at home and is that really a bad loss. Sure there can be more here but the schedule is relatively solid at 40 and even though the road mark of 3-6 could be better, they seem to be a safe bet.
5. (19) TCU 20-9: Frogs look very close following their win over Baylor this weekend. Lot of good things here....4-7 vs Q1 and 4-2 vs Q2..SOS of 13, overall rpi of 19 is highest among the schools not locked in yet. Quality wins over WVU, St Bonnies, Nevada. They swept bubble Baylor and there is no loss outside Q 2 although that Vandy loss still seems like a bad one. Bears have done enough to play their way into the field, their job is to make sure that they do not play their way out. One win in their last 2 of KSU and at Texas Tech locks them, certainly not an easy stretch of games and losing both could slide them down the list and with alot of power 5 bubbles with similar type resumes, that is when things could get a bit murkier for their chances.
6. (34) OKLAHOMA 17-11: That win over Kansas State stopped a 6 game losing skid as the Sooners were teetering on the verge of playing themselves out of the tournament. Despite the losing, the Sooners have already amassed enough quality wins to get in the field. Their issue is just taking care of business so they do not play themselves out. With a 6-8 mark vs Quad 1 schools that is among the best around the bubble. OU got it done bigly in non conference play winning neutral site games with Wichita State, Oregon, and USC. In league they have that feather in their cap win over Kansas, swept TCU and took down Texas Tech. Throw in the Baylor and KSU wins and yeah they have more than enough beef on the resume. So what could go wrong..they travel to desperate Baylor and then the Sooners host ISU who already beat them once. At 7-9 in league, Sooners want to avoid that dreaded 7-11 league mark which has almost no history of being selected as an at large. Recommend they win two just to be sure but most likely a win over Baylor would still be enough.
7. (42) ARIZONA STATE 19-9: Their wins would indicate that they are safely in but their 7-9 mark in the 5 rated conference gives major pause. Yes conference marks are not part of the criteria, but the Pac 12 is in freefall for many reason and has 5-6 schools with similar profiles hanging around the bubble. No way ASU makes the tourney with a 7-11 conference mark. Its about taking care of business and beating Cal and Stanford. Their overall profile is a bit better than their fellow Pac 12 bubbles...4-4 vs Quadrant 1 and 3-4 vs Quadrant 2. OOC was where they were quite strong with wins over Kansas, Kansas State, and Xavier....thats two possible one seeds folks. In league again less successful, wins over USC, UCLA and Utah but they lost twice to Zona. Its body of work and even though that Oregon State loss was hideous, the Sun Devils hopes rest on just making sure they do not play their way out. One win might be enough to do the trick.
8. (35) BUTLER 19-10: Rousing win over Creighton but the Dogs look a tad below the Jays in the pecking order. With two tough road games at SHU and SJU to close the year they will have to be careful. Now with a win over Villanova and wins over Ohio State and Utah OOC and splits with PC/Creighton, they are only 3-8 vs Q1 and 4-1 vs Q2. They do not want to lose both and put pressure to deliver a win or two in the BE tourney. A simple split of those last 2 should be enough to get them in. The overall SOS is strong at 22 and they have just one bad loss at Georgetown.
9. (27) TEXAS A&M 18-11: Very strong overall rpi in large part due to that SOS of 6 and non conference of 14. Aggies did alot of their work in non conference activity. A win at USC and neutral site wins over WVU and PSU lead the way plus throw in a sneaky good one vs Buffalo. In league recent wins over Kentucky and a big win at Auburn has helped that sagging conference mark of 7-9. So while they have 10 Q1&2 wins combined with 5 in each, that 7-9 league mark gives pause until they can win one more. Do not want to be 4 games under 500 in league with the possibility of facing a 14th loss in the SEC tourney. So its simply for A&M...either win at Georgia or beat Alabama at home and they dance. Lose both and they will have played themselves toward the last 4 in line meaning they need to reverse the trend in the SEC tourney.
10. (20) HOUSTON 22-6: Cougars have done enough to get in. For them its a matter of not screwing up in their final 2 of at SMU and UConn. Win those and they are in. Lose one or two and they will have to wait until sometime next week to lock in or float near the cut line. Still the numbers look strong here. A whopping 6 Q1 wins. Non conference wins over bubbles Providence and Arkansas plus league wins over Cincinnati and Wichita State. There is really bad loss to 244 Drexel here as well as a Q3 loss to Tulane but these losses shouldn't come into play unless the Cougars make them come into play.
11. (23) SAINT BONAVENTURE 22-6: Bonnies' job is to keep winning. Such is life when you are the 2nd place team in the 10th rated conference. The A10 being down this year means league games do not offer many opportunities for quality wins but do carry chances for landmines. STBU avoided two last week and now have won 10 in a row, they will need to keep going for two more with Davidson and at St Louis next. Bonnies are up to 4 Q1 wins and have another 4 Q2 wins. Highlights are URI in league but some really nice road/neutral wins over Buffalo, Vermont, Syracuse. There is just that one real bad loss at St Joes and another one less so at Dayton.
12. (44) PROVIDENCE 18-11: Friars are another school that has to worry about the bulky number of losses creeping up on them. Obviously it will be tough to win at Xavier but they really need that St Johns game to avoid the possibility of 14 losses after the BE tourney. Win that and they should be fairly safe. Remember they have wins over Xavier and Villanova. Those wins will keep even though they are just 3-7 in Q1, the other win being neutral site over Washington which was their only OOC win of note. They are 5-1 in Q2 and show wins over Butler and Creighton at home. Could there be more...sure but it will be hard to find schools with 2 better wins than they have.
13. (43) MISSOURI 17-11: Tigers have dropped 3 straight, picking up 2 Q3 losses along the way and that is not a good trend heading toward the end of the season. While they do have a strong 6-7 mark vs Q1 schools and another 4 vs Q2, they seem to be trying to play their way out of the tournament. Games at Vandy and Arky are left. They would do themselves well to win both but not slipping at Vandy might be enough. They have the wins over Tenn/A&M/KY so thats a pretty good trifecta but non conference wins are missing here....the best is UCF and note the loss to Illinois. Seen alot of SEC schools with similar profiles go from virtual lock a few weeks before selection sunday to last 4 out on selection sunday...would not be surprised.
14. (63) KANSAS STATE 20-9: Unlike some other Big 12 bubbles, KSU has a decent conference mark but yet still a dearth of quality wins. Just 3-8 vs Quadrant 1, that includes just TCU and wins at Texas and Baylor. They did win over OU which is close to a Q1 win. Unfortunately for the Cats they went 0-6 against the top 3 in the Big 12 so no feather in their cap wins to flaunt. OOC show a woeful mark of 323 and that will be looked at if KSU cannot lock in before the Big 12 tourney. Games at TCU and home to Baylor remain. Win both and they are in. Lose both and they are out unless they make a deep run in the Big 12 tourney. A split keeps them on the good side of the bubble but still not totally safe. Could benefit from the implosion of a couple of other Big 12 and Pac 12 bubbles.
15. (41) ALABAMA 17-12: Tide have dropped 3 in a row and despite some good stuff here have moved into dangerous territory. The sheer number of losses is the biggest concern now. Bama must win one of their last 2 or the prospect of heading into selection sunday with 15 losses will send them to the NIT. The last two are not easy...Florida and at A&M. Shame they are sputtering because they have 5 Q1 wins and another 6 in Q2...11 wins total is only rivaled by Florida among the bubble. Yet some of those wins may not be as good as they seem. Not to say that wins over URI and OU out of conference and in league wins over Auburn, Tennessee, A&M,at Florida are not quality. Its just that Bama has left the door open to play their way out. Yes the SOS of 7 is brilliant but note that 2-7 road mark. So while they will need one to stay alive, they will also need to pick up a win or 2 in the SEC tourney to stay on the right side of the bubble
16. (28) USC 21-9: Trojans helping their profile by winning last week while the Pac 12 crumbled around them. Their 4 Q1 wins are a bit deceiving..road wins at Utah and Oregon are okay but these are teams not projected in the tournament. Their best wins are neutral site wins over Middle Tennessee State and New Mexico State, two mid major schools. In 2nd place, just a half game behind Arizona they still could win the Pac 12 as unbelievable as it sounds. There is a pretty bad Q4 loss to Princeton and note losses to bubbles OU and A&M. Overall this resume is rather bland but its all about continuing to win. USC finishes by hosting UCLA, a win there can give them seperation from some other Pac 12 bubbles and with a win in the quarters they probably can punch their ticket. Lose there and all bets are off as other schools trying to play their way into the field
17. (56) UCLA 19-10: Bruins road trip to the Rockies proved deadly with losses to Utah and Colorado. With another rather bland resume, it makes their game at USC a must win for them or they will need a deep Pac 12 tourney run to solidfy their position in the field. Their big win was at Arizona and in league yeah they beat Utah, Washington and USC but those were all at home. Even with the Zona win that road mark is a red flag at 2-7. 3-6 vs Q1 and 3-2 vs Q2 are some wobbly metrics. They do have a OOC win over Kentucky as a plus but also a bad Q3 loss to Oregon State. Sitting in a precarious spot right now
18. (52) WASHINGTON 19-10: Huskies profile suffers because they benefitted from an easier Pac 12 schedule that saw them play the Arizona schools and USC/UCLA only once...so while they swept those Arizona schools both at home and did win at USC, that is basically all they have to show for it in the Pac 12...is that enough....well if you add in the feather in the cap win over Kansas on a neutral court you can make a case but this profile looks vulnerable with such a large Pac 12 bubble....3 Q1 wins and just 2 Q2 wins...5-8 combined in that grouping is a little sketchy. Note they got swept by bubble Utah and have a nasty loss to Oregon State. Like all the Pac 12 bubbles more wins are needed and they absolutely need to dispatch of the Oregon schools this week
19. (39) LOUISVILLE 19-10: Cards really needed that win at Va Tech after getting hammered by Duke. Still the resume is rather flimsy here...roads wins at Notre Dame and FSU make up that 3-8 Quad 1 mark and they are just 2-2 vs Q2. 0-4 vs top in ACC, best OOC win was just Memphis. So really there is work to do in the final two....Cards have a chance for that feather in their cap win with Virginia coming into town. Win that and win at NC State and case closed, they are dancing. Split those and they will have to sweat it out having to pick up another quality win or two in the ACC tourney to garner a an at large bid.
OUT
20. (59) NEBRASKA 22-9: Cornhuskers are clearly the most controversial bubble team and such a difficult team and profile for the selection committee to evaluate properly. There are some truly awful things on this resume....a non conference SOS of 278 which is only 105 overall. 19 of their 22 wins come from Q3 or 4 with a whopping 11 of them from Q4. They have only Q1 win and 2 Q2 wins. Their best OOC win was 101 rated BC. They lost to a bad Illinois team. Perhaps thats the loss that they could not afford, Nebby finished 13-5 in Big 10 play, 14-4..how could the selection committee deny that. Still something has to be said for 13-5 and 4th place in the Big 10 right? Well intangibles officially do not count. Yet the Huskers score high here and most certainly pass the so called eye test which has come into play with the selection committee before. Can the human rationale for Nebraska overcome the computer stuff which screams no and is riding on just a home win over Michigan to make its case. At minimum Nebraska needs to be Michigan as if they do not, they almost certainly will not dance. If they can beat MSU and make the Big 12 finals, they are in no question but if they do not thats is when the committee really has a tough call to make. Certainly how some of the SEC, ACC, Pac 12, and Big 12 bubbles finish will have a huge impact on their chances.
21. (64) BAYLOR 16-12: after working their way into the last 4 in with a string of quality wins, the Bears have played their way back to the last 4 out line after failing to follow up by losing to WVU and TCU. Tough to get an at large with 14 losses and that is why the Bears are facing must wins in bubble showdowns this week with Oklahoma and KSU. A split would probably mean they would need a Big 12 tourney final appearance, two losses and they would have to win the tourney..two wins and they are likely safe. They have an overall SOS of 22 working in their favor plus 4 Q1 wins...Kansas, Texas Tech and Creighton among them but 4-10 vs Q1 and 2-2 vs Q2 seem middling. They have no loss outside Quadrant 2.
22. (46) SYRACUSE 18-11: Orange could not pull any upsets vs Duke or UNC and now are must win mode for their final two of at BC and home to Clemson. That latter game would boost their weak Q1 numbers of 2-7. They are riding on road wins at Miami and Louisville and that just does not cut the mustard. OOC there was a win over Buffalo. Note that the SOS numbers are a big plus...15 overall and 21 non conference. It might be two bad losses to Wake and Ga Tech that come into play when evaluating them. Thinking is that they are going to have make a deep ACC tourney run to get on the good side of the bubble. Possible but not probable
23. (57) TEXAS 17-13: Horns are in a heap of trouble right now. They hit their 13th loss tonight and that is a scary proposition as they would be guaranteed a 14th loss if they do not win the Big 12 tourney. It means that their final game hosting WVU on Saturday means everything to their at large chances. Lose and they must win the Big 12 tourney as they simply will not be selected as a 15 loss team. The sheer amount of losses is just negating a lot of good they did earlier in the year. Horns are 5-10 vs Q1 so that reflects not only some big wins but a strong SOS of 14. Texas won neutral site games vs Butler and Alabama. In the Big 12 the top rated conference in the country, they beat Texas Tech, TCU and swept Oklahoma. Not only will they have to beat WVU but probably going to need another Quad 1 win in the Big 12 tourney. Not a good spot to be in right now.
24. (45) BOISE STATE 21-6: Broncs avoided any slip ups last week but still are up against it due to the lack of Q1 or Q2 wins. Their case is resting on a home win over Loyola Chicago and a road win over Oregon. The sheer number of wins is okay at 21 and two more in the regular season plus two more in the MWC tourney would put them at 25...would that be enough should they fall to Nevada for a third time. . It could be but alot would depend on some bloated Power 5 conference schools playing their way out of the tournament. That nonconference SOS of 217 and loss to Utah State loom large.
25. (84) PENN STATE 19-11: Nittany Lions had an opportunity with 3 Q1 games to end the season but they lost all of them and none more costly than the last one at Nebraska which put the Huskers in the drivers seat if anyone can get a 5th bid from the Big 10. Lions are just 2-7 vs Quad 1 and 2-2 vs Quad 2. A sweep of OSU and only a win over Montana in non conference play where the SOS is 254. Not going to get it done for them. Seeded 7th in league they must take down OSU for a third time but will also need a win vs Purdue in the semis. So its make the finals of the Big 10 for the Lions to get there...not entirely impossible, other than that PSU could be a favorite to win the NIT
26. (61) MISSISSIPPI STATE 20-8: Bulldogs have stealthly moved into bubble consideration with a huge needed road win at Texas A&M. MSU now just 2-7 at home and thats a big obstacle to overcome as well as the 308 non conference SOS. However the A&M did put them at 3-6 in Quadrant 1 and they are 4-2 in Q2. Still their only other big wins were Arkansas, Missouri, and Alabama..all bubble schools but also losses to bubble schools Florida, Missouri and Alabama. They clearly have much ground to gain on other SEC schools with better wins and better SOS. An opportunity for another Q1 win vs Tennessee but that road game at LSU is also a must. Win those two and get another Q1 win in the SEC tourney and their profile will start looking a lot better.
27. (55) UTAH 18-10: mixed bag for the week for the Utes, they beat fading UCLA but didnt take care of business at home vs USC. That's an issue because USC has gained seperation from some of the other other Pac 12 bubbles. As said earlier the overall profile of the Pac 12 is freefalling which simply means the Utes need to distinguish themselves in the Pac 12 tourney and that probably means making the finals. Non conference just a win over fading Missouri and that 21 non conference mark is a red flag here. Just not enough beef here....beating Washington 2x, ASU and UCLA for 6 total Q1 and Q2 wins is meh central.
28. (81) LSU 16-12: Tigers could not afford to lose that game at Georgia. Like the Dogs, the sheer number of losses in league and overall amount of losses plus the poor rpi are a huge issue now. Its a shame because there are things to like on their profile..wins over Houston, Michigan, a sweep of A&M and Arkansas. 6-6 vs Q1. The last two of at So Carolina and home to bubble Mississippi State are Q2 games not Q1. That OOC sos of 146 is below the other SEC bubbles. Realistically will probably need a trip to the SEC finals to move close enough to the bubble last 4 in line
29. (70) GEORGIA 16-12: That was a costly loss at SC for the Bulldogs so while they recovered by beating LSU, they know are in must win mode for their final 2 of Texas A&M and at Tennessee. Sweeping them would even their SEC mark at 9-9 while giving them two more Q1 wins. They do have 4 of them currently...St Mary's, Marquette, Florida, and Tennessee so it would bolster their argument somewhat heading into the SEC tourney. But they have a lot of ground to make up vs other SEC bubbles with better profiles meaning that a deep SEC run will be likely. Meanwhile a loss in either of their two remaining games would mean they are staring at 14 losses as at large and as stated before thats an almost impossible spot to overcome.
30. (78) MARQUETTE 16-12: For a team that came into the week hanging out in the nether regions of the bubble, losing to Big East bottom feeder De Paul was likely a death knell for the Warriors at large hopes. Their final two of at Gtown and home to Creighton will not move the needle much and unless they make an unlikely run to the BE finals, they really are not in the realistic hunt. 4-7 vs Q1 and 3 more wins in Q2, a sweep of SHU and road wins at Creighton and PC are not enough given how much losing they did.
31 (68) NOTRE DAME 16-12: Any and all hope for Irish rests with winning at Virginia to close the season and of course beating Pitt before that. Wins just are not there to offset the sheer amount of losing. This isnt the type of profile to get an at large with 14 losses so its beat UVA then pick up some more quality wins in the ACC tourney. Nice OOC win over Wichita St and there wins over FSU, NCST and at Cuse but the 2-6 mark vs Q1 will not cut it given all the other negatives which include 3 Q3 losses.
32. (72) OREGON 19-10: Wins over the Arizona schools have put the Ducks into bubble consideration, however with the Pac 12 sagging big time overall and the number of Pac 12 schools hovering around the mendoza line, its looking like Oregon will have to make a run to the Pac 12 tourney finals to have any legit case. Their best non conference win was at Fresno State and that combined with the 223 OOC SOS does not score them any points there. There are wins over UCLA, Washington, and another win over ASU but that is it. Ducks have road trips to the Washington schools which they must sweep and winning at Washington will at least add to their Q 1 total but a loss in either of them means they will need to win the Pac 12 tourney.
33. (102) OKLAHOMA STATE 16-13: The overall rpi is trash and the non conference SOS of 286 is a huge issue. With 13 losses, OSU is another school that would hit that dangerous 14 loss mark as an at large. The ONLY path they have is to take care of ISU at home and complete the season sweep of Kansas which would give them their 5th Quadrant 1 win..remember they beat WVU, Texas Tech as well as FSU. They then would probably have to make a run to the Big 12 finals to steal a bid. Longshot for sure but hey this team beat Kansas on the road plus the 2nd place team on the road in the Big 12 and beat the third place team last week. So they are the zombie team of the field until they die off.
Projected conference tourney winners from one bid leagues that will receive at large consideration if they do not win their conference tournaments which could steal bids off of the bubble: Buffalo, Louisiana, Loyola-Chicago, and Middle Tennessee State
LAST 4 IN: LOUISVILLE, WASHINGTON, UCLA, USC
LAST 4 OUT: NEBRASKA, BAYLOR, SYRACUSE, TEXAS
Last edited:
