Grab a cup of java and come on in...
Here are the 32 projected autobids
AMERICA EAST: VERMONT
AMERICAN: HOUSTON
ATLANTIC 10: VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
ACC: NORTH CAROLINA
ATLANTIC SUN: LIBERTY
BIG 12: KANSAS STATE
BIG EAST: VILLANOVA
BIG SKY: MONTANA
BIG SOUTH: GARDNER WEBB
BIG TEN: MICHIGAN STATE
BIG WEST: UC IRVINE
COLONIAL: HOFSTRA
CONFERENCE USA: OLD DOMINION
HORIZON: WRIGHT STATE
IVY: HARVARD
MAAC: IONA
MID AMERICAN: BUFFALO
MEAC: NORFOLK STATE
MISSOURI VALLEY: BRADLEY
MOUNTAIN WEST: NEVADA
NORTHEAST: SAINT FRANCIS
OHIO VALLEY: MURRAY STATE
PACIFIC 12: WASHINGTON
PATRIOT: COLGATE
SEC: TENNESSEE
SOUTHERN: WOFFORD
SOUTHLAND: SAM HOUSTON STATE
SWAC: PRAIRIE VIEW A&M
SUMMIT: OMAHA
SUN BELT: GEORGIA SOUTHERN
WEST COAST: GONZAGA
WAC: NEW MEXICO STATE
There are 28 schools I have projected as at large locks: CINCINNATI, CENTRAL FLORIDA, VIRGINIA, DUKE, VIRGINIA TECH, FLORIDA STATE, LOUISVILLE, SYRACUSE, TEXAS TECH, KANSAS, BAYLOR, IOWA STATE, OKLAHOMA, MARQUETTE, SAINT JOHN'S, SETON HALL, MICHIGAN, PURDUE, MARYLAND, WISCONSIN, IOWA, MINNESOTA, UTAH STATE, KENTUCKY, LOUISIANA STATE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, AUBURN, MISSISSIPPI
That takes care of 60 of the 68 available bids. There are about 21 schools competing for just 8 bids.
Note there are schools projected as conference champs such as Gonzaga, Buffalo, VCU, and Washington who are locks to get bids if they fail to win their conference tournaments and would steal bids from the bubble pecking order. New Mexico State would also be under consideration for an at large.
Here is the pecking order....
IN
1. (67) ARIZONA STATE 21-9: Sun Devils living among the rank mediocrity that is the Pac 12 this season. While beating the Pac 12 winner Washington at home, the sad reality is that it qualifies as a Q2 win not Q1. None of the other conference wins rise to Q1 level.Sun Devils have 3 very good OOC wins this year...Utah State, Miss State and Kansas. The 8-2 mark in Quad 2 game is quite strong. The SOS is okay at 72 but non conference fairly storng at 51. ASU did not do itself any favors by dropping 2 Q3 games and 2 Q4s....the worst of which are Princeton and Washington State. Its those losses that are dragging the overall NET rank down and keeping them from locking in. They draw the Stanford/UCLA winner in the quarters of the Pac 12 and cannot afford another Q3 loss there. That could be enough for the selection committee to justify leaving out. Do they need to win the next one is the question. I think a trip to the Pac 12 finals and they are safe. Whether they get there or not, they better be rooting against anyone other than Washington on the other side of the bracket.
2. (47) TCU 19-12: Horned Frogs earned a must win by winning at Texas to stop the bleeding after losing 6 of their last 7. Not only was it big in that it gave the Longhorns a 15th loss and bounced them out of the tourney for now, but it gave put their conference mark to 7-11...and while conference record is not a criteria, no school has ever been invited 6 games below 500 so the Frogs avoided that distinction. Still the difference between where TCU sits on this list and the last 4 out is razor thin. Just 3-5 vs Q1...they have the sweep of both Iowa State and Texas. 5-4 vs Q2 highlighted by a win over Baylor and fellow bubble Florida. Note they did lose to mid major bubble Lipscomb. They need to do their best to keep winning. Starting with another must win vs Oklahoma State in the first round of the Big 12. A win there would qualify as another Q2 win and would set up a matchup with top seed Kansas State in the quarters. Obviously a win there and they lock in, a loss and they drift perilously close to the last 2 in/last 2 out grouping. The SOS of 33 plus playing in the top rated conference will help them compared to a few other bubbles as will no loss outside Q2.
3. (55) OHIO STATE 18-13: Buckeyes have wobbled down the stretch losing at Northwestern and then falling short in a rally vs Wisconsin that could have locked them in. The suspension of Kaleb Wesson has really hurt this team and could have them teetering with a loss to surging Indiana in the 2nd round of the Big 10 tourney. That game could be a play in game for both or possibly a play out game. Buckeyes do have so decent stuff though when you start digging. 4- 9 vs Q1 and 4-3 vs Q2. Key win at Cincinnati, at Indiana and at Creighton, the latter two wins are gaining in strength. They also have in league home wins over Minnesota and Iowa. The only Q3 loss was to a decent Illinois. The profile has the willing wins, it should be enough compared to some of the SEC/ACC bubbles but if the Buckeyes do not get that tourney win, they are at the mercy of what teams are doing around them or conference tourney upsets and that is where their resume becomes vulnerable. Would do themselves well to take it out of the committee's hands.
4. (50) TEMPLE 23-8: Owls beefed up the resume by taking down UCF over the weekend. The Golden Flashes look safe now as the Owls look to become the 4th team from the AAC to make the NCAA tourney. Its not the greatest of profiles. The UCF win was just their 2nd vs Q1 (2-8). The other was over Houston...now how much credit will they get for that one, is it like 2 wins? 6-1 vs Q2 is pretty strong and they do have just one Q3 loss to Big 5 rival Penn. The best non conference win was just Davidson. The overall win total is strong and Fran Dunphy is hanging it up after this year. Owls probably have to win their quarterfinal game vs the winner of Wichita State and East Carolina. They potentially could get Cincy in the semis and a win there would lock them in. A loss and they will certainly be sweating things out hoping conference tourneys across the country go to form.
5. (51) INDIANA 17-14: Hoosiers are hot right now and are passing the eye test as a school playing their way into the field. They had a thread the needle path a few weeks ago after dropping 12 of 13 but their roll has snowballed. It also helps that Michigan State wound up Big 10 champs. Yeah the same Sparty that the Hoosiers swept giving them not one but two feather in their cap victories. 6-9 vs Quadrant 1 is best among the bubble. Wins over Big East champ Marquette, a win over Louisville, and Wisconsin. Q2 is less impressive just 2-5 but they have no Q3 or Q4 losses. Obviously the overall record is an issue. If they do not win the Big 10 tourney they will have 15 losses...question is are they in already, do they need that win vs OSU, do they even need to beat MSU a third time? Well I think a win over OSU will lock them. A loss to OSU and things become 50/50 and Hoosiers could lose their spot to a midmajor type school. Most fascinating profile of anyone on this list considering their tightrope act down the stretch.
6. (32) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 21-10: Wolfpack somehow finding their overall NET quite strong although the deep digs on their profile is showing red flags everywhere. For starters there is the absolute trash non conference schedule rank at 353 which is the absolute worst in the country. I have seen schools like SMU and So Carolina who were seemingly locks be snubbed by the selection committee because of schedules similar but even those were not as bad as this one. Let us also note that the ACC schedule only brings the overall mark to 215. Wolfpack benefitted from an easier ACC schedule were they only played 6 games against the top 5 in league while playing 10 games against the bottom 6 the dregs of the ACC. The loss last week to Georgia Tech was their 2nd Q3 loss joining Wake Forest. The positives...well just 2-8 vs Q1 but a better 6-0 vs Q2. There is the OOC win over Auburn. In league wins over Clemson and Syracuse. The good news is that they draw Clemson another bubble team in the ACC opening round which gives them an opportunity for a Q1 win while probably ending Clemson's at large hopes. The question then is do they also need to beat North Carolina to get that bid. I would lean that way.
7. (58) ALABAMA 17-14: The Tide are limping toward the end of the season with 6 losses in 8 games and wound up as the 10 seed in the SEC tourney. Tough to seperate Alabama from fellow SEC bubble Florida and while the Gators did beat the Tide this year, there are a couple of things on this resume that stand out a bit more here compared to the Gators. One is the SOS of 23 which is so important around the bubble. Again the big win of course is Kentucky, that counts as more than one win really and I know the 2-9 mark vs Q2 is lacking. The other win was Mississippi State. But digging into the Q2 solid mark of 7-3 shows some sneaky goodness....OOC wins over NCAA teams Liberty and Murray State now stand out. Throw in a win over Ole Miss and a win over Penn State. Two Q3 losses are the familar red flags for teams around the last 2 in/last 2 out line and believe me this area is skin tight right now. A big positive is that Bama gets a Q1 opportunity in its first round SEC matchup vs Ole Miss. They are in a must win situation because 17-15 is not going to cut it with their profile. However that win could just get them in by the skin of their teeth without having to take down Kentucky again. Ball is in their court.
8. (45) BELMONT 25-5: There are several mid majors battling it out for at large spot. My thinking is that selection committee is going to throw a bone to one of them. Right now I favor Belmont over Lipscomb, St Mary's, UNC Greensboro, and Furman. Bruins won the regular season Ohio Valley title but ran into the buzzsaw that is the Ja Morant Murray State Racers in the OVC tourney finals. The loss snapped a 14 game winning streak and note only 4 other losses...one to Purdue, a bad Q3 loss to Green Bay and of course 2 losses to Jacksonville State with one of those losses counting as a Q3 loss. Getting swept by them certainly clouds the picture. They finished 2-2 vs Q1 and 3-1 vs Q2. Wins over Murray State but not the biggie here....they beat bubble Lipscomb 2 times in OOC activity. That should immediately put them ahead of Lipscomb in any bubble discussion. Let us also consider a win at UCLA, sure not the UCLA we know of but that kind of scheduling and win should count for something. The non conference SOS is 76 which is decent enough for a low mid major even though overall it moves up to 191. The Bruins would make for an excellent watch in the first 4 games vs a bloated ACC or SEC school. Make it happen selection committee. Indiana or St John's (yes they are still a lock IMO but could fall here) vs Belmont in a first four game...hmmm
OUT
9. (33) FLORIDA 17-14: Gators are riding high on a sexy overall NET. The question is how much will the overall NET ranking factor in. This is the first year the NCAA is using the NET. If they follow NET lock step, schools like Florida and NCState will find themselves in the field over schools in the 60's. Like with Alabama the sheer number of losses is making their resume sketchy at best. Florida is just 6-12 vs the first two quadrants. They have two Q3 losses including the one to Georgia which is really bad. On the plus side of course is they did win at SEC champ LSU...again a win worth more than one in reality. They beat Ole Miss and yes they did beat Bama but other than that just a win over Butler. The SOS of 28 is strong and a plus. They are not getting in unless they beat Arkansas which would be a Q2 win, that would set up rematch with LSU and yeah a win there locks them in but if they do not win that, not sure that this 18-15 mark would be enough given the variablity around the bubble and schools that will assuredly be playing their way into the field.
10. (39) TEXAS 16-15: Oh Texas what have you done. Noted the past two weeks that the loss total was reaching uncharted territory but two losses last week has put the Longhorns out of the field. It didnt have to be that way. Despite their bulky loss total, a win over TCU heading into the Big 12 tourney would probably been enough given the other positive stuff on their profile. But they lost...at home and that completed the season sweep by TCU. Now facing a 16th loss somewhere before the end of the Big 12 tourney, is their only hope to win the tourney itself. No 16 loss school has ever received an at large bid. A 16-16 school certainly will not so Texas faces a must win game and not an easy one vs Kansas. That would get them to 17-15 but that will not be enough either as a loss puts them at 17-16. Horns will need to also beat Texas Tech. Next step is win the Big 12 tourney or lose in the final...will 18-16 be enough. Perhaps...that is when the strong numbers vs Q1 (5-9) and Q2 (4-5) and strong SOS of 6. Are you kidding me with these wins...North Carolina, Purdue, Iowa State, Kansas, at Kansas State, Baylor and Oklahoma. It would be a shame if all those losses went to waste. Going to be fascinating to watch this play out
11. (54) CREIGHTON 17-13: Bluejays took care of business last week to continue their late season surge. Not sure of the liklihood of 5 Big East schools getting bids so their path rests on nothing short of making the BE tourney finals. That means beating Xavier in the quarters and taking down Villanova in the semis, neither of which seems out of ordinary at this point in a league where there is little to differentiate the top from the bottom. Will that even be enough...maybe not. 3-10 vs Q1 is not all that hot, the best win Marquette and important win over Clemson. 6-3 vs Q2 but not losses to bubble Ohio State, swept by St Johns, swept by Seton Hall. The wins over Xavier, Butler, E Tennessee State rather meh. No bad losses outside Q1 and 2 and that SOS of 15 are big pluses.
12. (35) CLEMSON 19-12: Tigers notched a needed win over Syracuse unfortunately its just a Q2 win and with movement around the bubble, they actually slipped a couple of notches in the pecking order. The 1-9 mark vs Q1 is a no go. One good win over Va Tech, a win over Cuse and Lipscomb is simply not going to cut it. 6-3 vs Q2 and that makes just 7-12 vs both quadrants. Yes there are no bad losses....yes the SOS is 35 but they only had to face the top 3 in league once. Now the path to a bid rests on defeating NC State in the ACC first round which will likely be a bubble elimination game and then defeating North Carolina in the ACC quarters. Do that and that could be enough to get by although they would do themselves well to reach the ACC finals...prove it.
13. (48) LIPSCOMB 23-7: Unfortunately the Bison went down to defeat on their home court vs Liberty in the Atlantic Sun tourney finals. The regular season champs do have a shot at a bid but I cannot get around that they lost to Belmont two times and not so sure the selection committee is going to take two low mid majors this year. Some plusses...well the win over bubble TCU is the highlight as well as the strong non conference sos of 47. They have a win over Liberty and losses to Louisville and Clemson. The killer might be that Quad 3 loss to Florida Gulf Coast. They will be on the selection committee big board no doubt but still a longshot.
14. (37) SAINT MARY'S 20-11: Gaels have a very good NET number. Most likely because of the strong non conference sos for a mid major at 37 which includes losses to Miss St, LSU, and Utajh State...solid at 53 overall (2 losses to Gonzaga) but where are the wins? 1-6 vs Q1 and 2-3 vs Q2 does not get it done. The win at New Mexico State is really really good but that is it. Next best win is San Fransisco. Gaels did not get in last year with 28 wins with a better eye test team, even if they make the WCC finals. 11 losses which would be 12 just seems like too many....perhaps if they did not have the 2 Q3 losses to Harvard and Pepperdine, I could be more foregiving. Just cannot see it happening this year but I suppose we shall see how the selection committee views overall NET.
15. (41) FURMAN 22-7: The Paladins season is done following a loss to UNC Greensboro in the Southern Conference semi finals. Honestly they needed to make the finals to legit make a case. 1-5 vs Q1 and 3-1 vs Q2. Sure there is that win over Villanova which is great but other than that just one win vs Greensboro who they went 1-2 against, they were swept by Wofford, and split with E Tennessee State. Note a Quad 4 loss to Samford really sticks out like a sore thumb. Give them credit for scheduling LSU in a loss but the overall SOS is 182. Does not seem there is enough and I like the profiles of Belmont and Lipscomb more.
16. (76) GEORGETOWN 19-12: Hoyas came back from the dead after a crushing loss at De Paul but stunning Marquette on the road. Hoyas are 5-6 vs Q1 and 6-4 vs Q2...that 11-10 mark is actually best among the bubbles. Besides Marquette, the other quality wins are Villanova, St Johns, Seton Hall, and Liberty. If the Hoyas can beat Seton Hall in the Big East quarters and beat Marquette/SJU in the BE quarters they will have legit case for an at large bid without even winning the BE tourney. Can they do it is another question. I think no chance without reaching the finals. 2 Quad 3 losses but the Loyola Marymount one sticks out the most in that poor non conference SOS of 251. Its an interesting profile because good wins but alot of losses in a middling Big East that simply does not deserve 5 bids this season.
17. (64) ARKANSAS 17-14: Razorbacks were left for dead after suffering through a six game losing streak but 3 wins to close the year including quality ones vs Ole Miss and Alabama have nudged them into at large consideration. Still they need alot of work. Just 1-8 vs Q1..the big one over LSU worth more than one win, 4-3 vs Q2 includes victories over Ole Miss, Indiana, and Alabama. Ultimately it is the 3 losses in Quadrant 3 that likely does them in mainly the home losses to Georgia Tech and Western Kentucky. Going to need a trip to the SEC finals which means beating fellow bubble Florida, beating LSU, and SC/Aub winner. That is asking alot.
18. (71) XAVIER 17-14: The loss to Butler hurt alot moving them from serious contender to flickering longshot. Still the win over St Johns which completed a sweep of the Johnnies at least keeps them in the game. Nothing short of a trip to the Big East finals though gets them on the board which would add Q1 wins over Creighton and Villanova and even that I think will probably not be enough. Do have some wins...4-8 vs Q1, 4-4 vs Q2. Highlights are Villanova, SJU 2x, Seton Hall, and Creighton but no quality OOC wins..best being Missouri. I think the sheer amount of losses which would be 15 is too many for this profile and from this conference.
19. (57) UNC GREENSBORO 26-6: Gave it a good try but lost to Wofford in Southern Conference finals. That makes 0-3 vs Wofford this season and for me seals the deal to leave them out. 2-5 vs Q1 and 2-2 in Q2. They split with Furman and swept E Tennessee State but that does earn you a NCAA bid. 22 wins come from Q3 and Q4. Give credit for scheduling LSU and Kentucky but the best non conference win is Louisiana Tech. The NIT is a more appropriate spot and challenge for the Spartans.
20. (61) OREGON 19-12: Suppose we can consider the Ducks after notching a Quad 1 win at Washington. Just 2-5 vs Q1 and 3-4 vs Q2, they do have a neutral site win over Syracuse and a win over Arizona State. In some years this would be worth more but again in such a down Pac 12 you do not get a lot of credit for winning league games. Two Q3 losses hurt but that Q4 loss to Texas Southern is the biggest drag right now. Ducks are a certified longshot but there is a path in the Pac 12 tourney...beat Wash St in opening round..beat Utah/Stan-UCLA winner and hope ASU is the semifinal opponent providing another Q1 win opportunity. Get to the finals and then let us see where the dust settles. Stranger things have happened.
21. (53) MEMPHIS 19-12: Welcome to the nether regions of the bubble full of NIT schools. The slim path of the Tigers rests on a trip to the American tourney finals by notching wins over UCF and Houston and hoping for general losing around the bubble. Just one quad 1 vs 8 losses and 2-3 vs Q2 does not cut it. Wins over UCF and Temple nice as is the SOS of 37 but not nearly enough quality wins...hello 16 of 19 wins are Q3 and Q4. Best OOC win is Yale...blech.
LAST 4 IN: INDIANA, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, ALABAMA, BELMONT (last in)
LAST 4 OUT: FLORIDA (last out), TEXAS, CREIGHTON, CLEMSON
Here are the 32 projected autobids
AMERICA EAST: VERMONT
AMERICAN: HOUSTON
ATLANTIC 10: VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
ACC: NORTH CAROLINA
ATLANTIC SUN: LIBERTY
BIG 12: KANSAS STATE
BIG EAST: VILLANOVA
BIG SKY: MONTANA
BIG SOUTH: GARDNER WEBB
BIG TEN: MICHIGAN STATE
BIG WEST: UC IRVINE
COLONIAL: HOFSTRA
CONFERENCE USA: OLD DOMINION
HORIZON: WRIGHT STATE
IVY: HARVARD
MAAC: IONA
MID AMERICAN: BUFFALO
MEAC: NORFOLK STATE
MISSOURI VALLEY: BRADLEY
MOUNTAIN WEST: NEVADA
NORTHEAST: SAINT FRANCIS
OHIO VALLEY: MURRAY STATE
PACIFIC 12: WASHINGTON
PATRIOT: COLGATE
SEC: TENNESSEE
SOUTHERN: WOFFORD
SOUTHLAND: SAM HOUSTON STATE
SWAC: PRAIRIE VIEW A&M
SUMMIT: OMAHA
SUN BELT: GEORGIA SOUTHERN
WEST COAST: GONZAGA
WAC: NEW MEXICO STATE
There are 28 schools I have projected as at large locks: CINCINNATI, CENTRAL FLORIDA, VIRGINIA, DUKE, VIRGINIA TECH, FLORIDA STATE, LOUISVILLE, SYRACUSE, TEXAS TECH, KANSAS, BAYLOR, IOWA STATE, OKLAHOMA, MARQUETTE, SAINT JOHN'S, SETON HALL, MICHIGAN, PURDUE, MARYLAND, WISCONSIN, IOWA, MINNESOTA, UTAH STATE, KENTUCKY, LOUISIANA STATE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, AUBURN, MISSISSIPPI
That takes care of 60 of the 68 available bids. There are about 21 schools competing for just 8 bids.
Note there are schools projected as conference champs such as Gonzaga, Buffalo, VCU, and Washington who are locks to get bids if they fail to win their conference tournaments and would steal bids from the bubble pecking order. New Mexico State would also be under consideration for an at large.
Here is the pecking order....
IN
1. (67) ARIZONA STATE 21-9: Sun Devils living among the rank mediocrity that is the Pac 12 this season. While beating the Pac 12 winner Washington at home, the sad reality is that it qualifies as a Q2 win not Q1. None of the other conference wins rise to Q1 level.Sun Devils have 3 very good OOC wins this year...Utah State, Miss State and Kansas. The 8-2 mark in Quad 2 game is quite strong. The SOS is okay at 72 but non conference fairly storng at 51. ASU did not do itself any favors by dropping 2 Q3 games and 2 Q4s....the worst of which are Princeton and Washington State. Its those losses that are dragging the overall NET rank down and keeping them from locking in. They draw the Stanford/UCLA winner in the quarters of the Pac 12 and cannot afford another Q3 loss there. That could be enough for the selection committee to justify leaving out. Do they need to win the next one is the question. I think a trip to the Pac 12 finals and they are safe. Whether they get there or not, they better be rooting against anyone other than Washington on the other side of the bracket.
2. (47) TCU 19-12: Horned Frogs earned a must win by winning at Texas to stop the bleeding after losing 6 of their last 7. Not only was it big in that it gave the Longhorns a 15th loss and bounced them out of the tourney for now, but it gave put their conference mark to 7-11...and while conference record is not a criteria, no school has ever been invited 6 games below 500 so the Frogs avoided that distinction. Still the difference between where TCU sits on this list and the last 4 out is razor thin. Just 3-5 vs Q1...they have the sweep of both Iowa State and Texas. 5-4 vs Q2 highlighted by a win over Baylor and fellow bubble Florida. Note they did lose to mid major bubble Lipscomb. They need to do their best to keep winning. Starting with another must win vs Oklahoma State in the first round of the Big 12. A win there would qualify as another Q2 win and would set up a matchup with top seed Kansas State in the quarters. Obviously a win there and they lock in, a loss and they drift perilously close to the last 2 in/last 2 out grouping. The SOS of 33 plus playing in the top rated conference will help them compared to a few other bubbles as will no loss outside Q2.
3. (55) OHIO STATE 18-13: Buckeyes have wobbled down the stretch losing at Northwestern and then falling short in a rally vs Wisconsin that could have locked them in. The suspension of Kaleb Wesson has really hurt this team and could have them teetering with a loss to surging Indiana in the 2nd round of the Big 10 tourney. That game could be a play in game for both or possibly a play out game. Buckeyes do have so decent stuff though when you start digging. 4- 9 vs Q1 and 4-3 vs Q2. Key win at Cincinnati, at Indiana and at Creighton, the latter two wins are gaining in strength. They also have in league home wins over Minnesota and Iowa. The only Q3 loss was to a decent Illinois. The profile has the willing wins, it should be enough compared to some of the SEC/ACC bubbles but if the Buckeyes do not get that tourney win, they are at the mercy of what teams are doing around them or conference tourney upsets and that is where their resume becomes vulnerable. Would do themselves well to take it out of the committee's hands.
4. (50) TEMPLE 23-8: Owls beefed up the resume by taking down UCF over the weekend. The Golden Flashes look safe now as the Owls look to become the 4th team from the AAC to make the NCAA tourney. Its not the greatest of profiles. The UCF win was just their 2nd vs Q1 (2-8). The other was over Houston...now how much credit will they get for that one, is it like 2 wins? 6-1 vs Q2 is pretty strong and they do have just one Q3 loss to Big 5 rival Penn. The best non conference win was just Davidson. The overall win total is strong and Fran Dunphy is hanging it up after this year. Owls probably have to win their quarterfinal game vs the winner of Wichita State and East Carolina. They potentially could get Cincy in the semis and a win there would lock them in. A loss and they will certainly be sweating things out hoping conference tourneys across the country go to form.
5. (51) INDIANA 17-14: Hoosiers are hot right now and are passing the eye test as a school playing their way into the field. They had a thread the needle path a few weeks ago after dropping 12 of 13 but their roll has snowballed. It also helps that Michigan State wound up Big 10 champs. Yeah the same Sparty that the Hoosiers swept giving them not one but two feather in their cap victories. 6-9 vs Quadrant 1 is best among the bubble. Wins over Big East champ Marquette, a win over Louisville, and Wisconsin. Q2 is less impressive just 2-5 but they have no Q3 or Q4 losses. Obviously the overall record is an issue. If they do not win the Big 10 tourney they will have 15 losses...question is are they in already, do they need that win vs OSU, do they even need to beat MSU a third time? Well I think a win over OSU will lock them. A loss to OSU and things become 50/50 and Hoosiers could lose their spot to a midmajor type school. Most fascinating profile of anyone on this list considering their tightrope act down the stretch.
6. (32) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 21-10: Wolfpack somehow finding their overall NET quite strong although the deep digs on their profile is showing red flags everywhere. For starters there is the absolute trash non conference schedule rank at 353 which is the absolute worst in the country. I have seen schools like SMU and So Carolina who were seemingly locks be snubbed by the selection committee because of schedules similar but even those were not as bad as this one. Let us also note that the ACC schedule only brings the overall mark to 215. Wolfpack benefitted from an easier ACC schedule were they only played 6 games against the top 5 in league while playing 10 games against the bottom 6 the dregs of the ACC. The loss last week to Georgia Tech was their 2nd Q3 loss joining Wake Forest. The positives...well just 2-8 vs Q1 but a better 6-0 vs Q2. There is the OOC win over Auburn. In league wins over Clemson and Syracuse. The good news is that they draw Clemson another bubble team in the ACC opening round which gives them an opportunity for a Q1 win while probably ending Clemson's at large hopes. The question then is do they also need to beat North Carolina to get that bid. I would lean that way.
7. (58) ALABAMA 17-14: The Tide are limping toward the end of the season with 6 losses in 8 games and wound up as the 10 seed in the SEC tourney. Tough to seperate Alabama from fellow SEC bubble Florida and while the Gators did beat the Tide this year, there are a couple of things on this resume that stand out a bit more here compared to the Gators. One is the SOS of 23 which is so important around the bubble. Again the big win of course is Kentucky, that counts as more than one win really and I know the 2-9 mark vs Q2 is lacking. The other win was Mississippi State. But digging into the Q2 solid mark of 7-3 shows some sneaky goodness....OOC wins over NCAA teams Liberty and Murray State now stand out. Throw in a win over Ole Miss and a win over Penn State. Two Q3 losses are the familar red flags for teams around the last 2 in/last 2 out line and believe me this area is skin tight right now. A big positive is that Bama gets a Q1 opportunity in its first round SEC matchup vs Ole Miss. They are in a must win situation because 17-15 is not going to cut it with their profile. However that win could just get them in by the skin of their teeth without having to take down Kentucky again. Ball is in their court.
8. (45) BELMONT 25-5: There are several mid majors battling it out for at large spot. My thinking is that selection committee is going to throw a bone to one of them. Right now I favor Belmont over Lipscomb, St Mary's, UNC Greensboro, and Furman. Bruins won the regular season Ohio Valley title but ran into the buzzsaw that is the Ja Morant Murray State Racers in the OVC tourney finals. The loss snapped a 14 game winning streak and note only 4 other losses...one to Purdue, a bad Q3 loss to Green Bay and of course 2 losses to Jacksonville State with one of those losses counting as a Q3 loss. Getting swept by them certainly clouds the picture. They finished 2-2 vs Q1 and 3-1 vs Q2. Wins over Murray State but not the biggie here....they beat bubble Lipscomb 2 times in OOC activity. That should immediately put them ahead of Lipscomb in any bubble discussion. Let us also consider a win at UCLA, sure not the UCLA we know of but that kind of scheduling and win should count for something. The non conference SOS is 76 which is decent enough for a low mid major even though overall it moves up to 191. The Bruins would make for an excellent watch in the first 4 games vs a bloated ACC or SEC school. Make it happen selection committee. Indiana or St John's (yes they are still a lock IMO but could fall here) vs Belmont in a first four game...hmmm
OUT
9. (33) FLORIDA 17-14: Gators are riding high on a sexy overall NET. The question is how much will the overall NET ranking factor in. This is the first year the NCAA is using the NET. If they follow NET lock step, schools like Florida and NCState will find themselves in the field over schools in the 60's. Like with Alabama the sheer number of losses is making their resume sketchy at best. Florida is just 6-12 vs the first two quadrants. They have two Q3 losses including the one to Georgia which is really bad. On the plus side of course is they did win at SEC champ LSU...again a win worth more than one in reality. They beat Ole Miss and yes they did beat Bama but other than that just a win over Butler. The SOS of 28 is strong and a plus. They are not getting in unless they beat Arkansas which would be a Q2 win, that would set up rematch with LSU and yeah a win there locks them in but if they do not win that, not sure that this 18-15 mark would be enough given the variablity around the bubble and schools that will assuredly be playing their way into the field.
10. (39) TEXAS 16-15: Oh Texas what have you done. Noted the past two weeks that the loss total was reaching uncharted territory but two losses last week has put the Longhorns out of the field. It didnt have to be that way. Despite their bulky loss total, a win over TCU heading into the Big 12 tourney would probably been enough given the other positive stuff on their profile. But they lost...at home and that completed the season sweep by TCU. Now facing a 16th loss somewhere before the end of the Big 12 tourney, is their only hope to win the tourney itself. No 16 loss school has ever received an at large bid. A 16-16 school certainly will not so Texas faces a must win game and not an easy one vs Kansas. That would get them to 17-15 but that will not be enough either as a loss puts them at 17-16. Horns will need to also beat Texas Tech. Next step is win the Big 12 tourney or lose in the final...will 18-16 be enough. Perhaps...that is when the strong numbers vs Q1 (5-9) and Q2 (4-5) and strong SOS of 6. Are you kidding me with these wins...North Carolina, Purdue, Iowa State, Kansas, at Kansas State, Baylor and Oklahoma. It would be a shame if all those losses went to waste. Going to be fascinating to watch this play out
11. (54) CREIGHTON 17-13: Bluejays took care of business last week to continue their late season surge. Not sure of the liklihood of 5 Big East schools getting bids so their path rests on nothing short of making the BE tourney finals. That means beating Xavier in the quarters and taking down Villanova in the semis, neither of which seems out of ordinary at this point in a league where there is little to differentiate the top from the bottom. Will that even be enough...maybe not. 3-10 vs Q1 is not all that hot, the best win Marquette and important win over Clemson. 6-3 vs Q2 but not losses to bubble Ohio State, swept by St Johns, swept by Seton Hall. The wins over Xavier, Butler, E Tennessee State rather meh. No bad losses outside Q1 and 2 and that SOS of 15 are big pluses.
12. (35) CLEMSON 19-12: Tigers notched a needed win over Syracuse unfortunately its just a Q2 win and with movement around the bubble, they actually slipped a couple of notches in the pecking order. The 1-9 mark vs Q1 is a no go. One good win over Va Tech, a win over Cuse and Lipscomb is simply not going to cut it. 6-3 vs Q2 and that makes just 7-12 vs both quadrants. Yes there are no bad losses....yes the SOS is 35 but they only had to face the top 3 in league once. Now the path to a bid rests on defeating NC State in the ACC first round which will likely be a bubble elimination game and then defeating North Carolina in the ACC quarters. Do that and that could be enough to get by although they would do themselves well to reach the ACC finals...prove it.
13. (48) LIPSCOMB 23-7: Unfortunately the Bison went down to defeat on their home court vs Liberty in the Atlantic Sun tourney finals. The regular season champs do have a shot at a bid but I cannot get around that they lost to Belmont two times and not so sure the selection committee is going to take two low mid majors this year. Some plusses...well the win over bubble TCU is the highlight as well as the strong non conference sos of 47. They have a win over Liberty and losses to Louisville and Clemson. The killer might be that Quad 3 loss to Florida Gulf Coast. They will be on the selection committee big board no doubt but still a longshot.
14. (37) SAINT MARY'S 20-11: Gaels have a very good NET number. Most likely because of the strong non conference sos for a mid major at 37 which includes losses to Miss St, LSU, and Utajh State...solid at 53 overall (2 losses to Gonzaga) but where are the wins? 1-6 vs Q1 and 2-3 vs Q2 does not get it done. The win at New Mexico State is really really good but that is it. Next best win is San Fransisco. Gaels did not get in last year with 28 wins with a better eye test team, even if they make the WCC finals. 11 losses which would be 12 just seems like too many....perhaps if they did not have the 2 Q3 losses to Harvard and Pepperdine, I could be more foregiving. Just cannot see it happening this year but I suppose we shall see how the selection committee views overall NET.
15. (41) FURMAN 22-7: The Paladins season is done following a loss to UNC Greensboro in the Southern Conference semi finals. Honestly they needed to make the finals to legit make a case. 1-5 vs Q1 and 3-1 vs Q2. Sure there is that win over Villanova which is great but other than that just one win vs Greensboro who they went 1-2 against, they were swept by Wofford, and split with E Tennessee State. Note a Quad 4 loss to Samford really sticks out like a sore thumb. Give them credit for scheduling LSU in a loss but the overall SOS is 182. Does not seem there is enough and I like the profiles of Belmont and Lipscomb more.
16. (76) GEORGETOWN 19-12: Hoyas came back from the dead after a crushing loss at De Paul but stunning Marquette on the road. Hoyas are 5-6 vs Q1 and 6-4 vs Q2...that 11-10 mark is actually best among the bubbles. Besides Marquette, the other quality wins are Villanova, St Johns, Seton Hall, and Liberty. If the Hoyas can beat Seton Hall in the Big East quarters and beat Marquette/SJU in the BE quarters they will have legit case for an at large bid without even winning the BE tourney. Can they do it is another question. I think no chance without reaching the finals. 2 Quad 3 losses but the Loyola Marymount one sticks out the most in that poor non conference SOS of 251. Its an interesting profile because good wins but alot of losses in a middling Big East that simply does not deserve 5 bids this season.
17. (64) ARKANSAS 17-14: Razorbacks were left for dead after suffering through a six game losing streak but 3 wins to close the year including quality ones vs Ole Miss and Alabama have nudged them into at large consideration. Still they need alot of work. Just 1-8 vs Q1..the big one over LSU worth more than one win, 4-3 vs Q2 includes victories over Ole Miss, Indiana, and Alabama. Ultimately it is the 3 losses in Quadrant 3 that likely does them in mainly the home losses to Georgia Tech and Western Kentucky. Going to need a trip to the SEC finals which means beating fellow bubble Florida, beating LSU, and SC/Aub winner. That is asking alot.
18. (71) XAVIER 17-14: The loss to Butler hurt alot moving them from serious contender to flickering longshot. Still the win over St Johns which completed a sweep of the Johnnies at least keeps them in the game. Nothing short of a trip to the Big East finals though gets them on the board which would add Q1 wins over Creighton and Villanova and even that I think will probably not be enough. Do have some wins...4-8 vs Q1, 4-4 vs Q2. Highlights are Villanova, SJU 2x, Seton Hall, and Creighton but no quality OOC wins..best being Missouri. I think the sheer amount of losses which would be 15 is too many for this profile and from this conference.
19. (57) UNC GREENSBORO 26-6: Gave it a good try but lost to Wofford in Southern Conference finals. That makes 0-3 vs Wofford this season and for me seals the deal to leave them out. 2-5 vs Q1 and 2-2 in Q2. They split with Furman and swept E Tennessee State but that does earn you a NCAA bid. 22 wins come from Q3 and Q4. Give credit for scheduling LSU and Kentucky but the best non conference win is Louisiana Tech. The NIT is a more appropriate spot and challenge for the Spartans.
20. (61) OREGON 19-12: Suppose we can consider the Ducks after notching a Quad 1 win at Washington. Just 2-5 vs Q1 and 3-4 vs Q2, they do have a neutral site win over Syracuse and a win over Arizona State. In some years this would be worth more but again in such a down Pac 12 you do not get a lot of credit for winning league games. Two Q3 losses hurt but that Q4 loss to Texas Southern is the biggest drag right now. Ducks are a certified longshot but there is a path in the Pac 12 tourney...beat Wash St in opening round..beat Utah/Stan-UCLA winner and hope ASU is the semifinal opponent providing another Q1 win opportunity. Get to the finals and then let us see where the dust settles. Stranger things have happened.
21. (53) MEMPHIS 19-12: Welcome to the nether regions of the bubble full of NIT schools. The slim path of the Tigers rests on a trip to the American tourney finals by notching wins over UCF and Houston and hoping for general losing around the bubble. Just one quad 1 vs 8 losses and 2-3 vs Q2 does not cut it. Wins over UCF and Temple nice as is the SOS of 37 but not nearly enough quality wins...hello 16 of 19 wins are Q3 and Q4. Best OOC win is Yale...blech.
LAST 4 IN: INDIANA, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, ALABAMA, BELMONT (last in)
LAST 4 OUT: FLORIDA (last out), TEXAS, CREIGHTON, CLEMSON
