Call your shot now. Will we be IN or OUT

[Scarlet Shack]

On behalf of the coaching staff and Coach Pike, want to thank you for providing the bulletin board material needed

We have played 7 of our last 8 games as games decided in minute 40….and we have run the full circle on the type of team to get there

The number is TWENTY now …

9-11/16-15……requires wonning the big ten tourney and getting in at 20-15 and a 12 seed

10-10/17-14….marque names wants us in the tour y . We need to get to the big ten final ….20-15 lands us in Dayton . CBS and eyeballs matter and we will help with that …20-15 and see you in Dayton

11-9/18-13….this is the tricky one . Does 19-14 get you in . We have flipped a coin on that in recent years … 20-14….is in

12-8/19-12…..on the right side of the bubble. Need one to lock it at 20-13

Find 20 wins …..

We play lots of close games …and this feels like a year that we aren’t going to blow anyone out and we aren’t going to get blown out

I’ll go over the on the court basketball reasons for this soon….and number 2 will have a lot to say on this ….

But in 11 weeks , during the first half of the 19th hour of March 16th….Rutgers name will on the CBS screen

ABSOLUTELY ALL F#%%ING IN

 

[RUChoppin]

On behalf of the coaching staff and Coach Pike, want to thank you for providing the bulletin board material needed

We have played 7 of our last 8 games as games decided in minute 40….and we have run the full circle on the type of team to get there

The number is TWENTY now …

9-11/16-15……requires wonning the big ten tourney and getting in at 20-15 and a 12 seed

10-10/17-14….marque names wants us in the tour y . We need to get to the big ten final ….20-15 lands us in Dayton . CBS and eyeballs matter and we will help with that …20-15 and see you in Dayton

11-9/18-13….this is the tricky one . Does 19-14 get you in . We have flipped a coin on that in recent years … 20-14….is in

12-8/19-12…..on the right side of the bubble. Need one to lock it at 20-13

Find 20 wins …..

We play lots of close games …and this feels like a year that we aren’t going to blow anyone out and we aren’t going to get blown out

I’ll go over the on the court basketball reasons for this soon….and number 2 will have a lot to say on this ….

But in 11 weeks , during the first half of the 19th hour of March 16th….Rutgers name will on the CBS screen

ABSOLUTELY ALL F#%%ING IN

No way 17-14 does it unless we win the B1G tourney. Doubt 18-13 gets us on the bubble unless Princeton and Kennesaw St somehow fight their way into Q2 and SHU/FUND fight their way into Q1.

We need to go 12-8 the rest of the way to even really be in the conversation.

Conference tourney wins won't matter for selection.

 

[Rhuarc]

No way 17-14 does it unless we win the B1G tourney. Doubt 18-13 gets us on the bubble unless Princeton and Kennesaw St somehow fight their way into Q2 and SHU/FUND fight their way into Q1.

We need to go 12-8 the rest of the way to even really be in the conversation.

Conference tourney wins won't matter for selection.

We have 18 league games left. I would imagine we need to go 12-6 in those games to give us a bubble shot. Assuming we win tomorrow, that gives us 20 wins before the tournament, 13 conference wins and probably a 5-6 seed in the B1G tournament.

 

[winfield102]

On behalf of the coaching staff and Coach Pike, want to thank you for providing the bulletin board material needed

We have played 7 of our last 8 games as games decided in minute 40….and we have run the full circle on the type of team to get there

The number is TWENTY now …

9-11/16-15……requires wonning the big ten tourney and getting in at 20-15 and a 12 seed

10-10/17-14….marque names wants us in the tour y . We need to get to the big ten final ….20-15 lands us in Dayton . CBS and eyeballs matter and we will help with that …20-15 and see you in Dayton

11-9/18-13….this is the tricky one . Does 19-14 get you in . We have flipped a coin on that in recent years … 20-14….is in

12-8/19-12…..on the right side of the bubble. Need one to lock it at 20-13

Find 20 wins …..

We play lots of close games …and this feels like a year that we aren’t going to blow anyone out and we aren’t going to get blown out

I’ll go over the on the court basketball reasons for this soon….and number 2 will have a lot to say on this ….

But in 11 weeks , during the first half of the 19th hour of March 16th….Rutgers name will on the CBS screen

ABSOLUTELY ALL F#%%ING IN

Looking forward to the how we do it post. I am curious as to what you think needs to/will happen.

Of the posters that have said "in", I don't think I've seen anything yet that makes reasonable sense or is feasible when it comes to the "how" in my opinion.

 

[Ridge 22]

Looking forward to the how we do it post. I am curious as to what you think needs to/will happen.

Of the posters that have said "in", I don't think I've seen anything yet that makes reasonable sense or is feasible when it comes to the "how" in my opinion.

That's not how they operate.

 

[winfield102]

That's not how they operate.

Shack is a great poster. He'll lay out his thoughts. I'd love to see a path to success cause we all know it's likely to be a dry spell after this year. It's this year or bust.

I appreciated the others articulating their reasons. After reading almost all of the reasons, I'm left saying " That's a desperate RU fan just hoping that we make it to the tournament". We can all identify with that so it's easy to recognize. They are fans.

If we do make it, I'd love to see who had the right call as to what the fix was. Those posters could get credibility points.

 

[SBP]

On behalf of the coaching staff and Coach Pike, want to thank you for providing the bulletin board material needed

We have played 7 of our last 8 games as games decided in minute 40….and we have run the full circle on the type of team to get there

The number is TWENTY now …

9-11/16-15……requires wonning the big ten tourney and getting in at 20-15 and a 12 seed

10-10/17-14….marque names wants us in the tour y . We need to get to the big ten final ….20-15 lands us in Dayton . CBS and eyeballs matter and we will help with that …20-15 and see you in Dayton

11-9/18-13….this is the tricky one . Does 19-14 get you in . We have flipped a coin on that in recent years … 20-14….is in

12-8/19-12…..on the right side of the bubble. Need one to lock it at 20-13

Find 20 wins …..

We play lots of close games …and this feels like a year that we aren’t going to blow anyone out and we aren’t going to get blown out

I’ll go over the on the court basketball reasons for this soon….and number 2 will have a lot to say on this ….

But in 11 weeks , during the first half of the 19th hour of March 16th….Rutgers name will on the CBS screen

ABSOLUTELY ALL F#%%ING IN

Atta Boy!!!!

 

[zappaa]

On behalf of the coaching staff and Coach Pike, want to thank you for providing the bulletin board material needed

We have played 7 of our last 8 games as games decided in minute 40….and we have run the full circle on the type of team to get there

The number is TWENTY now …

9-11/16-15……requires wonning the big ten tourney and getting in at 20-15 and a 12 seed

10-10/17-14….marque names wants us in the tour y . We need to get to the big ten final ….20-15 lands us in Dayton . CBS and eyeballs matter and we will help with that …20-15 and see you in Dayton

11-9/18-13….this is the tricky one . Does 19-14 get you in . We have flipped a coin on that in recent years … 20-14….is in

12-8/19-12…..on the right side of the bubble. Need one to lock it at 20-13

Find 20 wins …..

We play lots of close games …and this feels like a year that we aren’t going to blow anyone out and we aren’t going to get blown out

I’ll go over the on the court basketball reasons for this soon….and number 2 will have a lot to say on this ….

But in 11 weeks , during the first half of the 19th hour of March 16th….Rutgers name will on the CBS screen

ABSOLUTELY ALL F#%%ING IN

I’m all in on win #8.
Projecting conference wins, tournament wins or any wins other than tonight’s game is ridiculous.

 

[Ridge 22]

I’m all in on win #8

We all are. Just depends on which game you forecast it for

 

[SBP]

This is the best they’ve looked and now let’s string some together. They looked comfortable and ran some real nice stuff. Let’s get on a roll

 

[zappaa]

This is the best they’ve looked and now let’s string some together. They looked comfortable and ran some real nice stuff. Let’s get on a roll

Onto win #9
At Indiana… this is the game, this is the only game😊

 

[S_Janowski]

On behalf of the coaching staff and Coach Pike, want to thank you for providing the bulletin board material needed

We have played 7 of our last 8 games as games decided in minute 40….and we have run the full circle on the type of team to get there

The number is TWENTY now …

9-11/16-15……requires wonning the big ten tourney and getting in at 20-15 and a 12 seed

10-10/17-14….marque names wants us in the tour y . We need to get to the big ten final ….20-15 lands us in Dayton . CBS and eyeballs matter and we will help with that …20-15 and see you in Dayton

11-9/18-13….this is the tricky one . Does 19-14 get you in . We have flipped a coin on that in recent years … 20-14….is in

12-8/19-12…..on the right side of the bubble. Need one to lock it at 20-13

Find 20 wins …..

We play lots of close games …and this feels like a year that we aren’t going to blow anyone out and we aren’t going to get blown out

I’ll go over the on the court basketball reasons for this soon….and number 2 will have a lot to say on this ….

But in 11 weeks , during the first half of the 19th hour of March 16th….Rutgers name will on the CBS screen

ABSOLUTELY ALL F#%%ING IN

I love the enthusiasm but unfortunately I think we are left out in many of the scenarios you laid out.

Losing against Kennesaw / Princeton and not winning against either Bama / A&M is going to be hard to recover from.

Certainly not impossible and plenty of opportunity to go on some runs and beat really good teams in conference, but I think we have to do better then a lot of what you lay out.

 

[Dpgru]

Way back in post #16 in this thread I posted my opinion that we are “out” unless we suddenly started playing defense. Well, yesterday I saw team defense for the entire game for the first time all year. Granted it was Columbia and not vs a big ten team but I didn’t see it against the Monmouth and merrimacs of the world so it is a step in the right direction rather than more of the same. So, these next few games become the test. Will we see a team that plays both offense and defense or was the Columbia game an outlier? I still think we are out but I can be easily flipped by a total team performance these next three or four games. Go RU. Make me change my mind.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

The next time we are favored in a basketball game may be February 23rd

 

[RRRRUUUU]

Columbia didn’t have a big man that challenged the paint. Let’s see how we do vs Indiana. That will be the first real test to make people who are OUT like me, question their position. Would love to be wrong

 

[RUChoppin]

Columbia didn’t have a big man that challenged the paint. Let’s see how we do vs Indiana. That will be the first real test to make people who are OUT like me, question their position. Would love to be wrong

We'll probably need to win the next 4 for me to start reconsidering my position.

Next up are:
65 - @Indiana (Q1 - who will likely drop to Q2 if they lose to us)
34 - Wisconsin (Q2)
37 - Purdue (Q2)
14 - @UCLA (Q1)

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

1 thing that Shack touched on might end up being everything about our season.

It wouldn't be crazy to think 9 out of the 18 games could come down to who wins the final 2 to 3 possessions. Our season could end up how many times heads comes up on 14 flips of a coin.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

We'll probably need to win the next 4 for me to start reconsidering my position.

Next up are:
65 - @Indiana (Q1 - who will likely drop to Q2 if they lose to us)
34 - Wisconsin (Q2)
37 - Purdue (Q2)
14 - @UCLA (Q1)

Really hard to say 4 games and win them all. You go 5-2 in the next 7 and you sit at 13-7. 3-2 in the next 5 and sit at 16-9 and finish season 4-2 and get to 20.

Thu 1-02	A	56 (I)	Indiana	28%	0.6
Mon 1-06	H	29 (Ⅱ)	Wisconsin	44%	0.42
Thu 1-09	H	27 (Ⅱ)	Purdue	43%	0.43
Mon 1-13	H	12 (I-A)	UCLA	32%	0.55
Thu 1-16	A	28 (I-A)	Nebraska	19%	0.71
Mon 1-20	A	40 (I-A)	Penn St.	23%	0.66
Sat 1-25	H	25 (I)	Michigan St.	41%	0.46
Wed 1-29	A	36 (I)	Northwestern	22%	0.67
Sat 2-01	H	9 (I)	Michigan	28%	0.59
Wed 2-05	H	11 (I-A)	Illinois	29%	0.58
Sun 2-09	A	16 (I-A)	Maryland	13%	0.79
Wed 2-12	H	33 (Ⅱ)	Iowa	47%	0.39
Sun 2-16	A	14 (I-A)	Oregon	13%	0.79
Wed 2-19	A	112 (Ⅱ)	Washington	50%	0.36
Sun 2-23	H	73 (Ⅲ)	USC	62%	0.26
Thu 2-27	A	9 (I-A)	Michigan	11%	0.83
Tue 3-04	A	27 (I-A)	Purdue	19%	0.71
Sun 3-09	H	125 (Ⅲ)	Minnesota	81%	0.12

 

[RUChoppin]

1 thing that Shack touched on might end up being everything about our season.

It wouldn't be crazy to think 9 out of the 18 games could come down to who wins the final 2 to 3 possessions. Our season could end up how many times heads comes up on 14 flips of a coin.

We should not be in coin flip situations with the teams we've been in them against.

Games decided by 4 points or less:
20 -Penn State (W)
32 - Texas A&M (L)
92 - Notre Dame (W)
115 - Princeton (L)
176 - Seton Hall (W)
193 - Kennesaw State (L)

2/3 of the teams we've been in coin flips with have been ranked 90th or worse in NET. If you are in life and death battles against teams in the 90+ range, then you aren't really showing you belong in the tournament.

 

[RUChoppin]

Really hard to say 4 games and win them all. You go 5-2 in the next 7 and you sit at 13-7. 3-2 in the next 5 and sit at 16-9 and finish season 4-2 and get to 20.

Thu 1-02	A	56 (I)	Indiana	28%	0.6
Mon 1-06	H	29 (Ⅱ)	Wisconsin	44%	0.42
Thu 1-09	H	27 (Ⅱ)	Purdue	43%	0.43
Mon 1-13	H	12 (I-A)	UCLA	32%	0.55
Thu 1-16	A	28 (I-A)	Nebraska	19%	0.71
Mon 1-20	A	40 (I-A)	Penn St.	23%	0.66
Sat 1-25	H	25 (I)	Michigan St.	41%	0.46
Wed 1-29	A	36 (I)	Northwestern	22%	0.67
Sat 2-01	H	9 (I)	Michigan	28%	0.59
Wed 2-05	H	11 (I-A)	Illinois	29%	0.58
Sun 2-09	A	16 (I-A)	Maryland	13%	0.79
Wed 2-12	H	33 (Ⅱ)	Iowa	47%	0.39
Sun 2-16	A	14 (I-A)	Oregon	13%	0.79
Wed 2-19	A	112 (Ⅱ)	Washington	50%	0.36
Sun 2-23	H	73 (Ⅲ)	USC	62%	0.26
Thu 2-27	A	9 (I-A)	Michigan	11%	0.83
Tue 3-04	A	27 (I-A)	Purdue	19%	0.71
Sun 3-09	H	125 (Ⅲ)	Minnesota	81%	0.12

Not sure where these NET rankings are coming from - they look stale. Current numbers are at: https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

The problem we have is that we have to do what is "really hard" to get back into tournament conversation. We need to start stockpiling Q1/Q2 wins to counteract our current losses.

If we win the next 4, I'll revisit my "out" expectation... if we go 3-1, I'll still be in "wait and see" mode as we head into 4 straight Q1 contests away from the RAC . 2-2, and it just reinforces the "out" even more.

 

[bac2therac]

We should not be in coin flip situations with the teams we've been in them against.

Games decided by 4 points or less:
20 -Penn State (W)
32 - Texas A&M (L)
92 - Notre Dame (W)
115 - Princeton (L)
176 - Seton Hall (W)
193 - Kennesaw State (L)

2/3 of the teams we've been in coin flips with have been ranked 90th or worse in NET. If you are in life and death battles against teams in the 90+ range, then you aren't really showing you belong in the tournament.

Rutgers also trailed St Peters by 1 with under 4 minutes to go and still was only up 3 with a bit over 2 minutes left

 

[bac2therac]

1 thing that Shack touched on might end up being everything about our season.

It wouldn't be crazy to think 9 out of the 18 games could come down to who wins the final 2 to 3 possessions. Our season could end up how many times heads comes up on 14 flips of a coin.

not sustainable but you do you .....also please use net rankings

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

True......

I always say when evaluating how a team is doing (or player) you need to look at pockets of at least 5 games. The last 7 games we have at least had the "look" of a NCAA hopeful in 4 of them. AL, TXAM, PSU and Columbia. Unfortunately the other 3 were duds, including the SHU win.

To your point the next 4 games are huge.

 

[bac2therac]

the next 4 games are make or break...if they arent 3-1 then they are going to be in a heap of trouble. Indiana isnt a must win...but its going to be one of the easier road opportunities and the Hoosiers are not really living up to their own expectations. Rather get that one and start righting the ship then needing to win all 3 at the RAC

Prediction is we tread water at 2-2 and the same people believing now still believe and the naysaysers neigh

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

not sustainable but you do you .....also please use net rankings

NOOOOOO. I am copying and paste from bart. You will have to deal with it. Bart almost has preseason bias out and their numbers are very similar to NET when all is said and done.

In all seriousness there is a bit of "within a confidence" range when it comes to the NET. A few of these opponents will flip

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

the next 4 games are make or break...if they arent 3-1 then they are going to be in a heap of trouble. Indiana isnt a must win...but its going to be one of the easier road opportunities and the Hoosiers are not really living up to their own expectations. Rather get that one and start righting the ship then needing to win all 3 at the RAC

Prediction is we tread water at 2-2 and the same people believing now still believe and the naysaysers neigh

If you are a computer nerd we have a better chance of 1-3 then 2-2. Our chance at 4-0 is 1.7%

 

[bac2therac]

NOOOOOO. I am copying and paste from bart. You will have to deal with it. Bart almost has preseason bias out and their numbers are very similar to NET when all is said and done.

In all seriousness there is a bit of "within a confidence" range when it comes to the NET. A few of these opponents will flip

its overrating many big 10 schools most notably Nebraska and Iowa

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

have you heard of Gavin Griffiths?

 

[RUChoppin]

Doesn't make any sense to use bart rankings with a quad number next to them - quads are a NET construct only from a selection committee perspective. If bart is even off by 1 rank (31 vs 30 for a home game, for instance), the quad records will be different.

Also, all teams are "NCAA hopeful" - doesn't mean that hope is founded in anything, though.

 

[RUChoppin]

If you are a computer nerd we have a better chance of 1-3 then 2-2. Our chance at 4-0 is 1.7%

1.7% is better than the odds bart gives us for making the tournament (0.9%).

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Geez...just looked at Iowa. If we really want to be honest the way our team is built that is what our offensive efficiency numbers need to look like. They have 7 striaght games above an adjusted 1.24 PPP on offense. It felt like we were good on offense vs Columbia and we were only 1.16 adjusted PPP.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Holy sh!t Nebraska does it with defense. Makes sense why Gavin is DNP. They are under 1.00 on defense every game this year but 2. Of course the only 2 games they were above they lost.

11-0 under 1
0-2 over 1

 

[fluoxetine]

Doesn't make any sense to use bart rankings with a quad number next to them - quads are a NET construct only from a selection committee perspective. If bart is even off by 1 rank (31 vs 30 for a home game, for instance), the quad records will be different.

Also, all teams are "NCAA hopeful" - doesn't mean that hope is founded in anything, though.

The quads on Bart's site are based on NET.

e.g.

​

Sat 12-14

H

55

150 (Ⅳ)

Seton Hall

W, 66-63

The 150 is the Bart ranking but if he was using that for the quad it would be a Q3. But it says Q4.

 

[MURF87]

IN

 

[RUChoppin]

The quads on Bart's site are based on NET.

e.g.

​

Sat 12-14

H

55

150 (Ⅳ)

Seton Hall

W, 66-63

The 150 is the Bart ranking but if he was using that for the quad it would be a Q3. But it says Q4.

Got it... but that's just weird to have it as a parenthetical in the same column like that.

 

[winfield102]

On behalf of the coaching staff and Coach Pike, want to thank you for providing the bulletin board material needed

We have played 7 of our last 8 games as games decided in minute 40….and we have run the full circle on the type of team to get there

The number is TWENTY now …

9-11/16-15……requires wonning the big ten tourney and getting in at 20-15 and a 12 seed

10-10/17-14….marque names wants us in the tour y . We need to get to the big ten final ….20-15 lands us in Dayton . CBS and eyeballs matter and we will help with that …20-15 and see you in Dayton

11-9/18-13….this is the tricky one . Does 19-14 get you in . We have flipped a coin on that in recent years … 20-14….is in

12-8/19-12…..on the right side of the bubble. Need one to lock it at 20-13

Find 20 wins …..

We play lots of close games …and this feels like a year that we aren’t going to blow anyone out and we aren’t going to get blown out

I’ll go over the on the court basketball reasons for this soon….and number 2 will have a lot to say on this ….

But in 11 weeks , during the first half of the 19th hour of March 16th….Rutgers name will on the CBS screen

ABSOLUTELY ALL F#%%ING IN

@Scarlet Shack, I'd like to hear your opinion as to how we get to 20. While I don't think we get there, what do you think needs to happen for us to get there?

 

[suggakane]

Out Just not enough horses

 

[RUDivision]

Out of NCAAs
50/50 out of Big ten tournament
100% Pikes done

 

[Rhuarc]

Out of NCAAs
50/50 out of Big ten tournament
100% Pikes done

100 percent that Pike's done as in getting fired or in being successful while coaching at RU?

 

[rubs]

Rutgers is going home post-season. Hopefully Pike retires or is fired. His record is dreadful. What exactly has he achieved? Does Rutgers accept a tournament appearance once every ten years?