COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

[RU-05]

I guess I was blessed then, because my whole framework is solving real problems with real solutions. Combine that with a nature that looks for the easiest and cheapest solution.

Using a bazooka would kill the fly in your kitchen quite effectively, but a fly swatter is a much better solution to the problem. BTW, that explains my fascination with HCQ. An existing drug that costs pennies per dose and in-vitro suggests it might be useful against Covid19. But both sides are working against a simple evaluation of HCQ, i.e., 1) MSM and folks who resent Trump and 2)Big Pharma because they can't make money on the fly swatter. Just do a real eval and we can go from there. If it does not help remove it as an option. The motives need to be pure at this point and frankly they are not.

To be fair, was HCQ ever a legit option beyond Trump consistently pushing it?

I agree a large segment, but not all, of the MSM were quick to dismiss it for political reasons, but why was it ever brought up, and brought up so repeatedly? Was there anything prior that suggested it deserved such a recommendation from such a high profile individual?

Never mind the treatments that said high profile individual later thought were worth looking into. Not surprising that some are quick to doubt these recommendations.

 

[RU848789]

Rutgers Undergrad, Satan Hall Graduate both Chemistry,
First 14+ years spent in Pharmaceutical R&D. Promoted first 6 out of 7 years and into management while going to grad school at night. PhD's did not like reporting to someone with BA (from Rutgers College no less).
Last twenty years as Founder/CEO of a software product and consulting firm. Our customers are 7 of the top 15 in the world. Our software products are for R&D scientists and statisticians. I have no formal training in statistics or programming and yet two companies have globally standardized portions of their statistical evaluation process using the software I designed and created. One of them was paying SAS to explore this advanced concept and were told it is so complex it would take a team of 5 or more programmers along with a team of company R&D folks. The cost would be many millions (3.3 to be exact) and at least a year or more. I was done in less than 5 months with one other programmer and software validation analyst. I designed it to use a base SAS engine to boot. I threw in an interface system that allows users to connect it to almost any company data system and import their data directly into the desktop app for analysis. Both customers have been using it for 15 years. I get paid to help data scientists understand and solve problems.

So what are my qualifications? I put some stuff above because that is what people usually do. My view is I was given a gift, it is the 10 lb weight on my neck/shoulders. When I was young my school had me tested by a specialist and I guess was abnormally high on the distribution. On a personal note, I am not a fan of our education system as it is not designed well for those who are advanced. I went through undergrad and grad barely ever attending any classes as I found it boring. You want me to sit and write down what you say and then say it back to you a month later? I could train a baboon to do that. How about learning to critically think and solve problems. That is what our education should be doing. Life is a series of problems, some more difficult than others, that we are challenged to solve. My brain always seeks and prefers the elegant solution. Many people, even those highly educated, do not.

Here is a little anecdote: I don't need a calculator...never have. When I add or multiply numbers I work from left to right. I can get answers faster than you can write the problem down on a piece of paper. I can count upwards given any number meaning if you say 34, I can ssay 34, 68, 102, 136, 170, 204, 238, 272, 306, 240, 374, 408. I can go way faster than I can type or speak. When I add numbers I add them like this:


359
419
876

I see 163 sets of tens for 1630 with an additional 24 ones to give 1654. When I multiply I do it like this

52*68= 50*68=3400 and add 2 more 68's which is 136 for 3536. Sometimes for fun I will do 70 times 52 = 3640 and then subtract 2 52's to get 3536. My mind always seeks the simplest solution and then adjust to correct to solve the problem. I did not come up with that it just does it on it's own. So no credit to me.


When I was in third grade, I developed a routine to estimate square roots in my head to multiple decimal places and also created an error correction factor as the smaller the number the greater the error, once you approach trillions the estimate is accurate to more than 6 decimal places. My teachers understood from a young age that I never needed a piece a paper to answer a math question as I do it all in my head and it takes less than a second. Out of boredom one day as a 9 year old I decided to better understand the relationships betweeen numbers. I noticed that:

For squares: 2^2=4 3^2=9 4^2=16 and the relationship between them is to find the next in the series you add the two consecutive numbers together and add them to the previous square, i.e., 2^2=4 so 2+3 added to 4 is 9 or 3^2. 3+4 3^2=16 which is 4^2. So I decided how would I explain cubes, etc. I found:

For cubes: A*B x3+1 ---- 2^3=8 3^3=27 the difference between is 19 which is 2*3*3+1. So then the difference to the next number in the sequence is 3*4*3+1=37 so 37+27=64 which is 4^3. Next is 4*5*3+1=61 so 125 is the next solution which is 5^3

So my teacher asked me how would I explain ^4 series?
I said ^4: 1, 16, 81, 256, 625. What is the relationship? I looked at it and said to my teacher I see (A*B)*(A+B)*2+(A+B) as explaining the difference between each ^4. So (1*2)*(1+2)*2+3=15-------->1+15=16=2^4
(2*3)*(2+3)*2+5=65-------->16+65=81=3^4
(3*4)*(3+4)*2+7=175-------->81+175=256=4^4

Needless to say my teacher had me sent to a special program to be tested. I guess I see patterns where most people cannot. I was in 3rd grade.

For those interested, my thought process on how to estimate square roots in my head was this:

15^2=225
16^2=256
The difference between them is the two numbers added 15+16=31.

so sq root of say 243 is in between 225 and 256 and in fact (243-225=18) so 18/31 in between. So my initial hypothesis was the answer was 15.5806. But the actual answer is 15.588 so it underestimates it a fraction. What I also noticed was that as the number approaches infinity my result approaches the actual number. So sq root of 1,000,234 would be estimated to be 1000 + 234/2001 which is 1000.11694 and the actual answer is: 1000.11699. If you continue the estimate approaches the actual.

I know we argue over stuff, but probably because we're more alike than we might want to admit. I'm not going to rehash my background, as I've posted about many times and it tends to annoy some, but will if you haven't seen it (the basics are BS/MS/PhD in chem eng'g, all at RU, followed by 30+ years in chemical process development in R&D at Merck - have 3 patents, led large groups for years, and have a host of peer reviewed publications).

I'm almost the exact same way with math. I was considered kind of a math (and chess) prodigy from a young age as I would do all the times tables way faster than anyone else and before calculators were invented (around 5th grade for me), parents and friends would have me do math in my head like a parlor trick. I "see" addition and multiplication the same way you do and I do math in my head for fun, just walking around. I also just like to count stuff (steps taken, how long to complete a task in different ways, etc.) for some reason, lol.

As a 7-year old, I leaned about dice and probability a little bit from my dad (MS in mech eng'g - a real rocket scientist, who worked on Keyhole spy satellites, Apollo and MIRV warhead telemetry). I then took two dice and rolled them a few thousand times recording all of the results and then calculating how often each result came out and then said to my dad that those percentages should always hold true given all of the potential combinations, nor realizing I had essentially invented, for me at least, probability analysis.

My guess is we should probably just not argue about HCQ and we'll do fine. The one thing I'd recommend you do is to seriously give Derek Lowe's "In The Pipeline" blog a read. It's probably the most well known and respected phama R&D blog out there, especially from a medicinal chemisty-biology-clinical development perspective and has been for a long time. The fact that he writes a scientific blog for Science Translational Magazine, one of AAAS's suite of cutting edge scientific journals, all under the umbrella of Science, perhaps the most renowned scientific journal in the world, is about as impressive as it gets. I met him at a conference about 15 years ago and he's also a pretty cool guy in addition to being a brilliant scientist/writer.

https://stm.sciencemag.org/

 

[wisr01]

I know we argue over stuff, but probably because we're more alike than we might want to admit. I'm not going to rehash my background, as I've posted about many times and it tends to annoy some, but will if you haven't seen it (the basics are BS/MS/PhD in chem eng'g, all at RU, followed by 30+ years in chemical process development in R&D at Merck - have 3 patents, led large groups for years, and have a host of peer reviewed publications).

I'm almost the exact same way with math. I was considered kind of a math (and chess) prodigy from a young age as I would do all the times tables way faster than anyone else and before calculators were invented (around 5th grade for me), parents and friends would have me do math in my head like a parlor trick. I "see" addition and multiplication the same way you do and I do math in my head for fun, just walking around. I also just like to count stuff (steps taken, how long to complete a task in different ways, etc.) for some reason, lol.

As a 7-year old, I leaned about dice and probability a little bit from my dad (MS in mech eng'g - a real rocket scientist, who worked on Keyhole spy satellites, Apollo and MIRV warhead telemetry). I then took two dice and rolled them a few thousand times recording all of the results and then calculating how often each result came out and then said to my dad that those percentages should always hold true given all of the potential combinations, nor realizing I had essentially invented, for me at least, probability analysis.

My guess is we should probably just not argue about HCQ and we'll do fine. The one thing I'd recommend you do is to seriously give Derek Lowe's "In The Pipeline" blog a read. It's probably the most well known and respected phama R&D blog out there, especially from a medicinal chemisty-biology-clinical development perspective and has been for a long time. The fact that he writes a scientific blog for Science Translational Magazine, one of AAAS's suite of cutting edge scientific journals, all under the umbrella of Science, perhaps the most renowned scientific journal in the world, is about as impressive as it gets. I met him at a conference about 15 years ago and he's also a pretty cool guy in addition to being a brilliant scientist/writer.

https://stm.sciencemag.org/

I do read his blog and recognize his skill. I just couldn't resist giving you the business.
As for dice, as a young child I created dice games for football and baseball. My friends loved the baseball game until we found Stratomatic. We had a Strat league for years until HS. I still have my strat cards including @zappaa somewhere in the attic. Have you ever played Stratomatic?

 

[RU848789]

My wife rags on me for never fulfilling my potential because I fell in love with a stupid game called golf while at Rutgers and that has befuddled me for 34 years. I make a really good living but my real focus, please don't tell my customers, has always been on my golf game. Way harder than any problem I have ever tried to solve. Just when i think I got it figured out, boom goodbye. You would blush if you heard some off the things I have said on a golf course. I cannot solve the riddle.

Holy crap we have this in common too. Started playing a bit in HS, but went crazy for it in grad school at RU, which was convenient, as the RU golf course was across the street from the eng'g building. My roommate and I (we were both getting our PhD's in chem E) used to play 3-4 days a week, often playing 2 rounds in a day, since we became buddies with Whitey, the starter and he'd let us play two rounds for the $4 it cost for students.

We'd do our research in the afternoons and evenings and often go out to the Melody Bar or other NB bars at night. Got to about an 8 handicap, but stopped playing much in the late 90s, due to work/family commitments and have barely played in the last 10 years and would. Was intending to start playing a lot more in retirement, but that hasn't quite worked out lol.

 

[wisr01]

Holy crap we have this in common too. Started playing a bit in HS, but went crazy for it in grad school at RU, which was convenient, as the RU golf course was across the street from the eng'g building. My roommate and I (we were both getting our PhD's in chem E) used to play 3-4 days a week, often playing 2 rounds in a day, since we became buddies with Whitey, the starter and he'd let us play two rounds for the $4 it cost for students.

We'd do our research in the afternoons and evenings and often go out to the Melody Bar or other NB bars at night. Got to about an 8 handicap, but stopped playing much in the late 90s, due to work/family commitments and have barely played in the last 10 years and would. Was intending to start playing a lot more in retirement, but that hasn't quite worked out lol.

That damn course and Whitey ruined my life. I think the game appealed to me because of the way I am wired and I have spent a lifetime studying and understanding the golf swing. BTW, I was originally a physics major and the physics of a pure golf swing is incredible. Later in life I used golf, yes golf, to teach my discus throwers. Although I never threw in HS (I was a jumper and by the way the High Jump is IMO the most beautiful form of athletic art), I inherited the throwers at the HS where I coached. I used the principles of generating ground forces through proper sequence of weight transfer to teach my discus throwers. They always said it helped them understand how to use the ground to generate power.

On a somber note, I never understood why my dad gave up his engineering career to be a teacher. I never understood why he did it and it is the only reason I did not major in mathematics. He passed away in 1995.

Soon after, I volunteered as a jumps coach and the eventually added the throwers too. I had the blessing of coaching multiple non-public B state champs and had an impact on many kids. It was then I realized why he became a teacher, the impact you can have on a young impressionable minds is the greatest privilege I have ever had. I understand it was only sports, but i saw myself as a teacher of athletics. I coached Soccer, Basketball and Track. Outside my role as husband and father It is my finest accomplishment. Kudos to anyone who has dedicated their lives to teaching our youth. Teaching kids to focus, improve their technique, set goals and accomplish them for me was the greatest reward.

 

[RU848789]

I do read his blog and recognize his skill. I just couldn't resist giving you the business.
As for dice, as a young child I created dice games for football and baseball. My friends loved the baseball game until we found Stratomatic. We had a Strat league for years until HS. I still have my strat cards including @zappaa somewhere in the attic. Have you ever played Stratomatic?

Ok, I had trouble believing you didn't think his blog was worth reading.

This too, lol. My older brother got me into the competitor for Strat-o-matic - APBA, when I was about 10 and I became addicted and got my best friend into it. Every year from about 1973 through 1977 (ages 11-15) he and I would play 50-game seasons for every MLB team, recording all the stats (paper and pencil) and it was amazing how close the top players were vs. the actual season results. It was also a dice game with the rolls corresponding to certain hitting outcomes on a player's card and then subsequent rolls on the same at-bat bringing in the influence of things like the fielding/pitching elements, depending on their card/ratings. Here's Rod Carew's card from 1975 when he hit 0.358 (couldn't find the '77 card when he hit 0.383 - was an Orioles fan, but he was my favorite player). My mom threw all my APBA stuff out when she moved out of our house when I was in my early 20s (had no idea she did it - thought she kept it for me).

 

[wisr01]

Back on topic, today's death toll was 151 but what is really concerning is 135 of them were from folks in LTCs. Yes we need to start planning to re-open the economy, but just as much we need to focus on how we protect our most vulnerable. LTCs should be properly stocked with PPE including N95 masks. We need to test all workers to prevent them from introducing the virus into the facilities. We need to test and isolate the residents. No politics here, we need our govt to step up and protect our most vulnerable. And It needs to happen ASAP.

 

[wisr01]

Ok, I had trouble believing you didn't think his blog was worth reading.

This too, lol. My older brother got me into the competitor for Strat-o-matic - APBA, when I was about 10 and I became addicted and got my best friend into it. Every year from about 1973 through 1977 (ages 11-15) he and I would play 50-game seasons for every MLB team, recording all the stats (paper and pencil) and it was amazing how close the top players were vs. the actual season results. It was also a dice game with the rolls corresponding to certain hitting outcomes on a player's card and then subsequent rolls on the same at-bat bringing in the influence of things like the fielding/pitching elements, depending on their card/ratings. Here's Rod Carew's card from 1975 when he hit 0.358 (couldn't find the '77 card when he hit 0.383 - was an Orioles fan, but he was my favorite player). My mom threw all my APBA stuff out when she moved out of our house when I was in my early 20s (had no idea she did it - thought she kept it for me).

I hope the Dodgers won every year!!!! I love dem Bums.

 

[Ronnie_B]

Ok, I had trouble believing you didn't think his blog was worth reading.

This too, lol. My older brother got me into the competitor for Strat-o-matic - APBA, when I was about 10 and I became addicted and got my best friend into it. Every year from about 1973 through 1977 (ages 11-15) he and I would play 50-game seasons for every MLB team, recording all the stats (paper and pencil) and it was amazing how close the top players were vs. the actual season results. It was also a dice game with the rolls corresponding to certain hitting outcomes on a player's card and then subsequent rolls on the same at-bat bringing in the influence of things like the fielding/pitching elements, depending on their card/ratings. Here's Rod Carew's card from 1975 when he hit 0.358 (couldn't find the '77 card when he hit 0.383 - was an Orioles fan, but he was my favorite player). My mom threw all my APBA stuff out when she moved out of our house when I was in my early 20s (had no idea she did it - thought she kept it for me).

Not only was I a APBA-cultist but Carew was one of my favorite cards.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Back on topic, today's death toll was 151 but what is really concerning is 135 of them were from folks in LTCs. Yes we need to start planning to re-open the economy, but just as much we need to focus on how we protect our most vulnerable. LTCs should be properly stocked with PPE including N95 masks. We need to test all workers to prevent them from introducing the virus into the facilities. It needs to happen ASAP.

I mentioned this in another thread, look at the info from Somerset County:

https://somerset-county-nj-coronavirus-response-somerset.hub.arcgis.com/

Trends looking positive, more recovered cases than new cases. Interesting facts:
236 of the 313 deaths are via LTC facilities (75%) - even higher than the state %
24 people died in one LTC facility in Hillsborough

 

[LETSGORU91]

Agreed on the drinking. In fact if I am drinking on the course it means I am playing bad and have given up. Drinking does not help your game.

It's a little known fact that at around 10 am and continuing until late afternoon, if your golf game is not going well, a little swing oil is worth its weight in gold.

 

[SkilletHead2]

I've been hearing about the new math for years, and while curious, I have not yet given it a good look.

New math was essentially an effort to focus less on calculation and accuracy as the goals of math instruction and to focus more on understanding the underlying concepts and ideas that make up mathematics. Hence, less time memorizing multiplication tables and more time looking at patterns and sets of numbers that underlie multiplication. More time on estimating what results look reasonable and less time on correcting errors in calculation. And with the advent of calculators, even less time on calculation. Kids more likely to work in groups and problem solve and novel approaches to things like long division. In New Zealand, we don't even teach kids division by fractions (because who ever actually does that stuff?).

The underlying problem of new math is that in the real world it's important to get the answer right, and if you have to stop half way through a problem to work out what 6 times 8 is, the cognitive load throws you off the problem. Thus, new math, and it's descendants, were well-intentioned and had some good ideas, but common sense gave way to ideological purity and it pretty much went haywire.

 

[Ronnie_B]

And before ABPA (or Strat-O-Matic) was this:

 

[RU848789]

Not only was I a APBA-cultist but Carew was one of my favorite cards.

Hey, well if that's all it takes to be cool, right back at ya!! Was a fun game wasn't it?

 

[Ronnie_B]

Hey, well if that's all it takes to be cool, right back at ya!! Was a fun game wasn't it?

I made a fictional six-team league, I was that addicted. Most of my teams names were opposite MLB teams, so instead of Cubs they were Bears, Lions and not Tigers, my favorite though was the Blue Sox.

Fun as hell.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Study out of Hong Kong that a triple antiviral cocktail and MS drug help patients recover more quickly. Patients with mild/moderate symptoms and given withing 7 days of testing positive.

From the article:

Dr. Kwok-Yung Yuen at Hong Kong University and colleagues tested the HIV drug combination of ritonavir and lopanivir along with the general antiviral drug ribavirin and a multiple sclerosis drug called beta interferon.

Patients in the study all had mild to moderate symptoms and were treated within seven days of testing positive. Some doctors think treating patients earlier in the course of the infection might be better.

Yuen's team gave some patients only the HIV drug combination, often sold under the brand name Kaletra. Other were randomly assigned to get the lopinavir-ritonavir combination plus the antiviral drug ribavirin and injections of beta interferon.

The patients who got the cocktail tested negative for coronavirus after seven days on average. Those who just got the HIV drugs were positive on average for 12 days, the team reported in the Lancet medical journal.

The patients given the cocktail also felt better quicker -- within four days.
"Early triple antiviral therapy was safe and superior to lopinavir-ritonavir alone in alleviating symptoms and shortening the duration of viral shedding and hospital stay in patients with mild to moderate COVID-19," the researchers wrote.
There were few side effects, they added.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/08/health/coronavirus-triple-therapy-hong-kong-health/index.html

 

[RU848789]

Back to your regular programming. Excellent interview with Fauci in Nat Geo from earlier this week, that I didn't see posted. He hasn't been perfect, but he's been pretty damn good, overall, IMO. Highlights are:

• The coronavirus did not come from a lab in Wuhan or anywhere else, as per the evolutionary biology experts. I also love his dismisssal of, "they brought the virus from the wild to a lab and then accidentally released it," as that's the worst circular logic - if it was already in the wild and could infect people what difference does it make?
• We must have massive testing/tracing, especially for the potential "second wave" in the fall; also the virus is not going to simply "go away"
• Don't reopen too soon, i.e, before infection rates are truly falling (and without adequate testing/tracing, which we're currently ignoring in some states that are reopening too soon),
• Need to keep doing social distancing to cut transmission rates
• Need to reinforce the nation's health care system with regard to beds, ventilators and PPE/supplies
• He remains optimistic we'll have a vaccine in record time, by January, given that it's obvious that many people make a very adequate immune response and they're able to clear the virus.
• He wants multiple vaccine candidates (need many shots on goal), which we have and is very upbeat on the Moderna mRNA vaccine, despite no mRNA vaccine ever being approved.
  • I'm not as optimistic on this one because we've never had one - about the only thing I disagree with him on.
• Said his view on masks evolved since they simply weren't available 6 weeks ago, but now are to a much greater extent and clearly sees the value in them for reducing transmission.
• Loved this quote: "Anybody can claim to be an expert even when they have no idea what they're talking about—and it's very difficult for the general public to distinguish. So, make sure the study is coming from a reputable organization that generally gives you the truth—though even with some reputable organizations, you occasionally get an outlier who's out there talking nonsense. If something is published in places like New England Journal of Medicine, Science, Nature, Cell, or JAMA—you know, generally that is quite well peer reviewed because the editors and the editorial staff of those journals really take things very seriously."
• The guy is a machine at 79. Gets up at 5 am, reads 1000+ emails, works until 1 pm at his day job at NAIAD, then heads to the WhiteHouse for the "doctor" meeting, then with the task force, and then to prep the POTUS - and then he goes to work, lol, doing media interviews, more emails and reading, fits in some food and a power walk with his wief and is up past midnight. Lather, rinse, repeat, 7 days a week.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...20200508&rid=3F7A7D00850AD922736B3173646A296D

 

[T2Kplus10]

New math was essentially an effort to focus less on calculation and accuracy as the goals of math instruction and to focus more on understanding the underlying concepts and ideas that make up mathematics. Hence, less time memorizing multiplication tables and more time looking at patterns and sets of numbers that underlie multiplication. More time on estimating what results look reasonable and less time on correcting errors in calculation. And with the advent of calculators, even less time on calculation. Kids more likely to work in groups and problem solve and novel approaches to things like long division. In New Zealand, we don't even teach kids division by fractions (because who ever actually does that stuff?).

The underlying problem of new math is that in the real world it's important to get the answer right, and if you have to stop half way through a problem to work out what 6 times 8 is, the cognitive load throws you off the problem. Thus, new math, and it's descendants, were well-intentioned and had some good ideas, but common sense gave way to ideological purity and it pretty much went haywire.

+1
New math blows. We are teaching our daughter the normal way to solve problems, so she can understand both. At least our school teaches cursive writing! :)

 

[T2Kplus10]

Ok, I had trouble believing you didn't think his blog was worth reading.

This too, lol. My older brother got me into the competitor for Strat-o-matic - APBA, when I was about 10 and I became addicted and got my best friend into it. Every year from about 1973 through 1977 (ages 11-15) he and I would play 50-game seasons for every MLB team, recording all the stats (paper and pencil) and it was amazing how close the top players were vs. the actual season results. It was also a dice game with the rolls corresponding to certain hitting outcomes on a player's card and then subsequent rolls on the same at-bat bringing in the influence of things like the fielding/pitching elements, depending on their card/ratings. Here's Rod Carew's card from 1975 when he hit 0.358 (couldn't find the '77 card when he hit 0.383 - was an Orioles fan, but he was my favorite player). My mom threw all my APBA stuff out when she moved out of our house when I was in my early 20s (had no idea she did it - thought she kept it for me).

RU students seem to love "fantasy" baseball or baseball games. My buddy and I spent countless days in the Hill dungeon working on stats for fantasy baseball. This was in the mid/late 90's when fantasy baseball and the internet started to come together. We wasted so much time - spring and summer mostly. I believe I had to drop a class and take it in the summer because it's midterm assignment conflicted with our opening day prep!
:)

 

[RU848789]

The number of hospitalized with confirmed and suspected covid remains the best single comparison; and also the best way to tell how much capacity there is in the health system at a given time.

Agree and wish the various data aggregating sites would include hospitalization rates. I look at them for NY/NJ every day, as they truly show the outbreak rate the best, since they're not dependent on testing and are much closer to new infections in time vs. deaths, but it takes work to find them for other states. Do you know of a site that has them in nice tabular form for all of the states along with graphics over time for them? I haven't found one.

 

[RU848789]

+1
New math blows. We are teaching our daughter the normal way to solve problems, so she can understand both. At least our school teaches cursive writing! :)

What could possibly be the value in cursive writing? Never saw a value in it when I was younger or now. I can print as fast as I can write in cursive, for manual notetaking, but even that is becoming obsolete with electronic notetaking or recordings - but wrongly so - many studies show writing the info down in summary form helps one retain it better, since you've already processed or "learned" the info to some extent.

 

[RUJohnny]

I think the justification of his delay is that we were the 2nd hardest hit state by this. Sure other states are opening up, and for some of those states it might turn out to be a bad idea, but none of those states were hit anywhere near as hard as NJ has been.

I do think it's very important that we get the economy going, I've been saying that since way early on in this process, but when thousands of people are dying every day from this, I can understand the caution in being too quick to open.

As per while Rome burns part? Trump already covered that ground.

Trumps actions have no impact on when we open, when those million unemployed get back to work, or if there will be businesses to hire them in a month or two. Murphy's actions do.

As for thousands of deaths...if New Jersey (and New York) didn't abandon/turn a blind eye to the devastation in our senior care/nursing homes, the death across NJ/NJ could have been greatly reduced.

As it is, our seniors died at a disproportionate rate, and continue to do so. Murphy finally took action to address that, which I guess is better late than never. But, those deaths do not justify keeping healthy people who are comfortable taking whatever risk of their livelihoods into their own hands, so long as it doesn't overwhelm the healthcare system again.

 

[biker7766]

I do read his blog and recognize his skill. I just couldn't resist giving you the business.
As for dice, as a young child I created dice games for football and baseball. My friends loved the baseball game until we found Stratomatic. We had a Strat league for years until HS. I still have my strat cards including @zappaa somewhere in the attic. Have you ever played Stratomatic?

I've actually been spending my free time in quarantine playing APBA with my dad!

 

[T2Kplus10]

What could possibly be the value in cursive writing? Never saw a value in it when I was younger or now. I can print as fast as I can write in cursive, for manual notetaking, but even that is becoming obsolete with electronic notetaking or recordings - but wrongly so - many studies show writing the info down in summary form helps one retain it better, since you've already processed or "learned" the info to some extent.

View embedded media

Data shows that cursive writing improves a students understanding of grammar and overall literacy skills. My daughter started to learn it a bit and she is fascinated. It has motivated her to write more, both letters to friends and family and her own short stories.

The way I studied at RU (undergrad and grad) was to rewrite my notes from class and write out important facts from textbooks into my notebook. I have a tons of old notebooks with pages and pages of handwritten notes. I even wrote my Henry Rutgers honors thesis by hand (for my history degree) - at least 45-50 pages, both sides.

 

[SkilletHead2]

What could possibly be the value in cursive writing? Never saw a value in it when I was younger or now. I can print as fast as I can write in cursive, for manual notetaking, but even that is becoming obsolete with electronic notetaking or recordings - but wrongly so - many studies show writing the info down in summary form helps one retain it better, since you've already processed or "learned" the info to some extent.

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I can write in cursive about twice as fast as I can print. Skillethead, Jr. agrees with you, though. Of course, he has the fine motor skills of a polar bear.

But since I don't write nearly as much as I keyboard these days, I find my cursive skills aren't quite what they used to be (I'm sure it's not that I turn seventy in ten days.). When I fill out greeting cards, I print. My penmanship and printing are still quite good, but I find that occasionally leave out letters or add extra ones in when in cursive mode. So I print when i want something to be really accurate. Took typing in eighth grade summer school. Probably the most valuable course I ever took.

 

[SkilletHead2]

Data shows that cursive writing improves a students understanding of grammar and overall literacy skills. My daughter started to learn it a bit and she is fascinated. It has motivated her to write more, both letters to friends and family and her own short stories.

The way I studied at RU (undergrad and grad) was to rewrite my notes from class and write out important facts from textbooks into my notebook. I have a tons of old notebooks with pages and pages of handwritten notes. I even wrote my Henry Rutgers honors thesis by hand (for my history degree) - at least 45-50 pages, both sides.

There is a study showing that writing in cursive improves literacy skills? You got a link for that? I'd love to have that in my hip pocket for discussions with my faculty. Have to say I'm a bit skeptical on that one.

 

[T2Kplus10]

There is a study showing that writing in cursive improves literacy skills? You got a link for that? I'd love to have that in my hip pocket for discussions with my faculty. Have to say I'm a bit skeptical on that one.

I'll have to ask our school to send it over. We learned about it in one of our parent sessions last year. Our school is highly data driven when it come to curriculum. They have studies to support all of their decisions and activities.

 

[RU848789]

Interesting stuff, wisr. I used to do a lot of that sort of thing as a kid as well. Most mathematicians (high level ones) have similar stories to tell. And now, we try to teach that sort of thinking to kids in schools. It's referred to as "teaching them to think like mathematicians." But it doesn't work very well. Why? Because they aren't mathematicians. They just don't think that way.

Plus, to me it is questionable whether you would want to teach someone to think like that as it isn't really very necessary in most aspects of life, and it leads to not teaching kids how to actually solve the problems they encounter in real life. Furthermore, for many of the mathematicians I know (I know a lot), I'm surprised that they can find the building in the morning. Good guys, but take them 5 degrees out of their field, and they are pretty much like the rest of society.

And now, for your treat. There is a UK show called "8 out of 10 Cats Does Countdown" and part of it is a math problem. The contestants have about half a minute to figure it out, and about 1/3 of the time, one of them does (they are all professional comedians). If they don't get it, Rachel Riley, the insanely hot blonde who puts up the numbers, almost always solves it, often in fascinating ways. The whole show is worth it just to see her (Oxford grad). It's way off-color, but a great show. Here is a clip of what the math problems look like (all the same format). You should check out the show just for the math problems. Super fun:

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Cool clip and show - will likely go watch one for kicks and for Rachel, lol. That 576 one though is confusing me. Maybe I don't get the rules, but I would think one has to use each number and she didn't.

The numbers were 75 3 1 3 1 6

Her solution was 75-3 = 72 and 6+1+1 = 8 and then multiplying those two together to get 576. Problem is she didn't use the second "3". Assuming one has to use all the numbers, my answer was: 75-3 = 72 and 3 x 1 = 3, then 3 - 1 = 2, then 2+6 = 8 and multiplying 72 x 8 = 576. That seemed pretty easy, but only because I know all the squares up to 961 imprinted in my brain, so I also went looking for 24 squared or combos like 24x3x8 or 24x6x4 immediately. Do I have that right or am I missing something?

 

[RU848789]

I can write in cursive about twice as fast as I can print. Skillethead, Jr. agrees with you, though. Of course, he has the fine motor skills of a polar bear.

But since I don't write nearly as much as I keyboard these days, I find my cursive skills aren't quite what they used to be (I'm sure it's not that I turn seventy in ten days.). When I fill out greeting cards, I print. My penmanship and printing are still quite good, but I find that occasionally leave out letters or add extra ones in when in cursive mode. So I print when i want something to be really accurate. Took typing in eighth grade summer school. Probably the most valuable course I ever took.

I should qualify that by saying my "printing" half looks like cursive, as it's really sloppy and letters run into each other in my own kind of shorthand, including many abbreviations I use.

Took typing in 11th grade and have said for years it was the most valuable course I took in HS also! Teacher said I'd make a fine secretary someday.

 

[RU848789]

Data shows that cursive writing improves a students understanding of grammar and overall literacy skills. My daughter started to learn it a bit and she is fascinated. It has motivated her to write more, both letters to friends and family and her own short stories.

The way I studied at RU (undergrad and grad) was to rewrite my notes from class and write out important facts from textbooks into my notebook. I have a tons of old notebooks with pages and pages of handwritten notes. I even wrote my Henry Rutgers honors thesis by hand (for my history degree) - at least 45-50 pages, both sides.

The link I included shows handwritten notes improve understanding/retention, but I didn't see anything on grammar/literacy. @SkilletHead2 - did you not see my link? I just disagree that cursive is any better than printing, so why learn both (at least for me, it's no faster).

 

[T2Kplus10]

The link I included shows handwritten notes improve understanding/retention, but I didn't see anything on grammar/literacy. @SkilletHead2 - did you not see my link? I just disagree that cursive is any better than printing, so why learn both (at least for me, it's no faster).

Here is a recent article that links to a study:
https://www.scholastic.com/parents/...e-a-reader-blog/cursive-writing-practice.html

Our school showed us data similar to what this article highlights. Or daughter is in 2nd grade and we have already started to see benefits of cursive writing.

Another FYI, there is also a bunch of research on the benefits of cursive writing for children with learning differences, especially dyslexia and other visualization issues.

 

[MulletCork]

Just wanted to add to what I witnessed this past week as it relates to long term care facilities. And this is just one place where I had the misfortune of my mother being at for a while unfortunately.

So I have a friend who works there as a nurse. She had zero experience, former school teacher and just got her certification for nursing there, whatever that is. They had zero PPE there until recently. We mailed her homemade cloth masks. As sure as shit she got sick the other day. They finally set her up to get tested after. Of course she is positive. This was Wednesday.

Nursing home wants her to use PTO this week to cover her absence.
They also want her to return to work next week. Next week! No follow up test, just if you can taste and smell again. But if not you won’t get paid.
So what is she going to do? She has a daughter Go back to work as a per diem nurse who’s facility gives zero shits about it’s employees.

So that’s just one person’s account at a long term care facility. No wonder it spreads like wildfire.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Just wanted to add to what I witnessed this past week as it relates to long term care facilities. And this is just one place where I had the misfortune of my mother being at for a while unfortunately.

So I have a friend who works there as a nurse. She had zero experience, former school teacher and just got her certification for nursing there, whatever that is. They had zero PPE there until recently. We mailed her homemade cloth masks. As sure as shit she got sick the other day. They finally set her up to get tested after. Of course she is positive. This was Wednesday.

Nursing home wants her to use PTO this week to cover her absence.
They also want her to return to work next week. Next week! No follow up test, just if you can taste and smell again. But if not you won’t get paid.
So what is she going to do? She has a daughter Go back to work as a per diem nurse who’s facility gives zero shits about it’s employees.

So that’s just one person’s account at a long term care facility. No wonder it spreads like wildfire.

That's freaking criminal.

 

[SkilletHead2]

Cool clip and show - will likely go watch one for kicks and for Rachel, lol. That 576 one though is confusing me. Maybe I don't get the rules, but I would think one has to use each number and she didn't.

The numbers were 75 3 1 3 1 6

Her solution was 75-3 = 72 and 6+1+1 = 8 and then multiplying those two together to get 576. Problem is she didn't use the second "3". Assuming one has to use all the numbers, my answer was: 75-3 = 72 and 3 x 1 = 3, then 3 - 1 = 2, then 2+6 = 8 and multiplying 72 x 8 = 576. That seemed pretty easy, but only because I know all the squares up to 961 imprinted in my brain, so I also went looking for 24 squared or combos like 24x3x8 or 24x6x4 immediately. Do I have that right or am I missing something?

No, you don't have to use all the numbers. You just have to use any of the numbers (once only) and the four math functions to make the total number. There is also a word scramble part to teh game (kind of like Boggle), and then there is just a lot of banter and obscenities. There is another show called Countdown, and it is a serious game show. This one is for fun. We never miss it.

 

[MulletCork]

That's freaking criminal.

I mean it’s disturbing as hell.
I really am not sure how this is allowed to occur.

 

[wisr01]

Just wanted to add to what I witnessed this past week as it relates to long term care facilities. And this is just one place where I had the misfortune of my mother being at for a while unfortunately.

So I have a friend who works there as a nurse. She had zero experience, former school teacher and just got her certification for nursing there, whatever that is. They had zero PPE there until recently. We mailed her homemade cloth masks. As sure as shit she got sick the other day. They finally set her up to get tested after. Of course she is positive. This was Wednesday.

Nursing home wants her to use PTO this week to cover her absence.
They also want her to return to work next week. Next week! No follow up test, just if you can taste and smell again. But if not you won’t get paid.
So what is she going to do? She has a daughter Go back to work as a per diem nurse who’s facility gives zero shits about it’s employees.

So that’s just one person’s account at a long term care facility. No wonder it spreads like wildfire.

I don't know what to say after reading this...

 

[Wolv RU]

I don't know what to say after reading this...

I'd say this is what the government should have been focusing on as far as lockdowns all along. It was obvious from the outset this could be a huge problem.

 

[MulletCork]

I don't know what to say after reading this...

I am obviously insanely bothered by this on multiple levels.

The facility to at least “be fair” is in Delaware and not here in NJ.

But what is going on here? I know after losing my mom in one of these facilities over a long period of time recently how poorly they can be run and how overworked the employees are. Also I hate to say it but how unskilled and underpaid some of the people can be who take care of your loved ones on a daily basis are. I’m not saying people don’t work hard or care because for me that’s all they did was bust their ass but they could only do so much.

These facilities weren’t equipped to deal with our loved seniors in normal times much less now.

But it’s truly disturbing me on the first person level to see a friend with a daughter she needs to be there for, fall ill herself because they had no protection for employees to speak of. And they want her to come to work next week. And she wants to because she has to work. So I’m sorry for the rant but it just is disturbing to see the failure on every level here. Now in mid-May.

 

[SkilletHead2]

Here is a recent article that links to a study:
https://www.scholastic.com/parents/...e-a-reader-blog/cursive-writing-practice.html

Our school showed us data similar to what this article highlights. Or daughter is in 2nd grade and we have already started to see benefits of cursive writing.

Another FYI, there is also a bunch of research on the benefits of cursive writing for children with learning differences, especially dyslexia and other visualization issues.

Sadly, the student that the Scholastic journalism piece is based on shows that writing in cursive does not produce writing that is superior to printing. It got ever so slightly higher scores on syntax, but not on composition. And the groups weren't randomized to begin with, so interpretation is a bit sketchy. Not a bad study, just doesn't have results anywhere near the hype in the Scholastic piece. I see this time and again in publications like Scholastic, and it drives me nuts as teachers and parents never read the original research, and Scholastic only tends to like articles that are sexy (well, education sexy).

I think cursive is helpful, but in all honesty, I think it is a lost cause, like spelling and using although instead of while where appropriate.

 

[RU848789]

Trumps actions have no impact on when we open, when those million unemployed get back to work, or if there will be businesses to hire them in a month or two. Murphy's actions do.

As for thousands of deaths...if New Jersey (and New York) didn't abandon/turn a blind eye to the devastation in our senior care/nursing homes, the death across NJ/NJ could have been greatly reduced.

As it is, our seniors died at a disproportionate rate, and continue to do so. Murphy finally took action to address that, which I guess is better late than never. But, those deaths do not justify keeping healthy people who are comfortable taking whatever risk of their livelihoods into their own hands, so long as it doesn't overwhelm the healthcare system again.

It's not just the elderly and it's not just about the health care system - to me, it's much more about preventing 1MM or more additional US deaths over the next 6-18 months, assuming we open things up and allow the US to move towards herd immunity, which is what some seem to want.

There are 83MM people in the US aged 45-64 and the total death rate for these people from COVID in NYC is 1540 per 1MM, which translates to 127K deaths of people in the US between 45 and 64, assuming the NYC death rates are similar for what the US's will be, which should eventually be the case, even if it's not now, as there should be no reason NYC people would be more likely to die from the virus than anyone else, unless there's some demographic or health care system reason, which could be factors, but are likely minor ones. But NYC only has about 20-25% infected so far (20% as of 4/30, but the first two results were closer to 25%, so since more people have been infected since the antibody study, let's take the 25% number infected right now in NYC. So one needs to multiply that 25% infected by 2.4X to get the total number of deaths for 60% being infected or very close to herd immunity. That would up the number to 305K dead between 45-64.

There are 30MM people in the US 65-74 and the NYC death rates for them is 5020 per 1MM, which translates to 150K deaths of people in the US between 65 and 74, assuming the NYC death rates are similar for what the US's will be. But NYC only has about 25% infected so far, so one needs to multiply that number by 2.4X to get the total number of deaths for 60% being infected or very close to herd immunity. That would up the number to 360K dead between 65-74.

There are 19MM people in the US over 75 and the NYC death rates for them is 12,620 per 1MM, which translates to 240K deaths of people in the US for people 75 and over, assuming the NYC death rates are similar for what the US's will be. But NYC only has about 25% infected so far, so one needs to multiply that number by 2.4X to get the total number of deaths for 60% being infected or very close to herd immunity. That would up the number to 576K dead over 75.

And finally, there are 109MM people in the US 19-44 and the NYC death rates for them is 168 per 1MM, which translates to "only" 18K deaths of people in the US between 19 and 44, assuming the NYC death rates are similar for what the US's will be. But NYC only has about 25% infected so far, so one needs to multiply that number by 2.4X to get the total number of deaths for 60% being infected or very close to herd immunity. That would up the number to 43K dead between 19-44. In a typical flu season, about 3400 people from 18-49 (didn't have 19-44) die from the flu and that number would obviously be less (3000?) for 18-44.

That's about 1.28MM total US dead, which is a fair amount greater than the 950K total dead the Wharton model had last week, if we stopped all interventions/social distancing and went to herd immunity over the next 6 to maybe 18 months (because the rate of spread will be much slower in low population density areas). The calcs above assume no interventions and no treatment/cure/vaccine and 60% of the US becoming infected at herd immunity and dying at rates we see in NYC now. The calcs also assume the NYC ~25% infected number, from antibody testing is correct. There could obviously be errors in all of those assumptions, but even if the deaths were simply just the 950K deaths in the Wharton model that's still an insane level of deaths over the next 18 months or so.

Also, here's a reality check on the numbers above. NYC right now, has 19,700 deaths in 25% of its population of 8.5MM (2.12MM infected) so the infection fatality number right now is 0.93%. If that overall 0.93% number held for the 60% of 330MM that would eventually become infected, that would be 1.84MM US deaths. Even if we went with NY State numbers of 26K deaths in 15% of the population with antibodies out of 20MM, that's an IFR of 0.86%, which would translate to 1.70MM US deaths. We better hope there are a lot more people with antibodies in NYC/NY or that there is something unusual about NYC/NY death rates or that we have a real treatment (plasma/engineered antibodies?) soon or that transmission rates end up being slower than expected in less densely populated areas with less interventions, giving more time for a cure/vaccine. Also, keep in mind that true infection rates in the rest of the US are likely only around 3-5%, given the much slower outbreaks in much less densely populated areas - this is where a Federal antibody testing program would be nice.

These kinds of potential deaths are why we need to get transmission rates down to much lower levels, such that death rates will stay at low levels, especially until we have a treatment/cure/vaccine. And the only way to do that is aggressive testing, tracing, and isolating to quickly detect and snuff out flare-ups, along with wearing masks in public and at least moderate social distancing to prevent the flare-ups in the first place and minimize them when they occur. This is the direction the NE Region (NY, NJ, CT, RI, MA, PA, DE) are heading as well as CA, WA, and OR, which combined are about 1/3 of the US population (106MM) but not the direction much of the rest of the country is headed.

US Population By Age (2018)

Sometimes I wonder if I'm missing something really important, but nothing obvious comes to mind. Hey @SkilletHead2 - being a numbers/math guy, who hasn't been immersed in this, as far as I can tell - can you check me here? Thanks.