I think states can open up and manage the situation as long as social distancing is taken seriously. If not, states may be going back on lockdown in month and it starts all over again.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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I think states can open up and manage the situation as long as social distancing is taken seriously. If not, states may be going back on lockdown in month and it starts all over again.
I always suspect all news as having a bias. The above was created by NTD news. Here is a description of NTD news: New Tang Dynasty Television (NTD, Chinese: 新唐人電視臺) is a U.S. television broadcaster, founded by Falun Gong practitioners, based in New York City with correspondents in over 70 cities worldwide. The station was founded in 2001 as a Chinese-language broadcaster,[1] but has since expanded its language offerings. The company retains a focus on China in its news broadcasts, and frequently covers topics that are censored in Mainland China. Its mission is to "promote uncensored information on China; to restore and promote traditional Chinese culture; and to facilitate mutual understanding between the East and West".[2]
Description of the Falun Gong practitioners:
The practice initially enjoyed support from Chinese officialdom, but by the mid to late 1990s, the Communist Party and public security organizations increasingly viewed Falun Gong as a potential threat due to its size, independence from the state, and spiritual teachings. By 1999, government estimates placed the number of Falun Gong practitioners at 70 million.[2] During that time, negative coverage of Falun Gong began to appear in the state-run press, and practitioners usually responded by picketing the source involved. Most of the time, the practitioners succeeded, but controversy and tension continued to build. The scale of protests grew until April 1999, when over 10,000 Falun Gong practitioners gathered near the central government compound in Beijing to request legal recognition and freedom from state interference. This demonstration is widely seen as catalyzing the persecution that followed.
On 20 July 1999, the Communist Party leadership initiated a nationwide crackdown and multifaceted propaganda campaign intended to eradicate the practice. It blocked Internet access to websites that mention Falun Gong, and in October 1999 it declared Falun Gong a "heretical organization" that threatened social stability.
So while I do believe the CCP covered up the Virus is an "enemy" of the US. We need to look at these pieces with a bit of a sceptical eye, just as I would any article posted by Salon, Vox, MSNBC, Fox News, OAN.
Ok..the jump from Mondays #s to Tuesday seems to indicate they are getting quicker results as staffing levels return to normal on a Monday. If AZ's numbers can be weeks behind, that could mean they are even further along in disease transmission than they realize...what I'm getting at, is if their lag time is greater and their numbers are on the rise, there is cause for concern.
Covid tales day …...
So sometimes it's difficult to relate anecdotal stories to statistics and predictions. Anecdotally, although you could feel that the social distancing is working - at the same time you can feel the second wave coming.
High risk limo driver .. poorly controlled poorly compliant diabetic hypertensive obese passive avoidant personality.
He tells me he " doesn't know what to do" He is very high risk and he knows it . He tells me that his wife is covid positive having been tested for the first time May 5. she works at a doctor's office/satellite clinic at Bayonne, on Kennedy Blvd called Care Point. reportedly ,they have not been seeing patients for weeks or doing any testing and only have been doing virtual visits. although I'm his doctor, I am not hers, so I didn't do the testing ,but I have gotten to know her since they got married a couple years ago. she's taken over his care like he's a little kid and got him a little bit in line. So why did she get tested along with her other eight workmates including another doctor in that office?
well it turns out that two weeks earlier the main doctor his - name is Dr D. comes down with covid respiratory infection and disappears and is not heard from and presumably and logically in quarantine. again there's been no patient contact (And we all know now that the vast majority of people are getting sick at home including health care professionals) and logically you would think that they would have tested the entire, close intimate staff at the time of the 1st docs case, but for some reason they wait 2 weeks.
..after 2 weeks decide to test rest of staff about 8 to 10 people with NP swab.
3 come back positive including my patient's wife. people are allegedly asymptomatic.
So I tell limo man that of course he's in quarantine as a household close contact, I'll see him and test him tomorrow, and ask if I can talk to his wife who I assume is somewhere in their house in quarantine. He tells me I can't talk with her unless he gets her on phone at work. What? Huh?
this care point management supposedly tells them ...take your temp and get back to work. she protests but goes unheard,unsupported. Her personal Dr is in same office and playing dumb about whole thing and vascillating with her recommendations, and comments.
seemingly the management and human resources rules the day even over CDC and local public health recommendations.
we generally see one kind of patient who amplifies or imagine symptoms and wants out of work- though they're considered vital.
or the other type who goes to work sick and who's passive and scared to say anything for loss of job and benefits and upsetting the apple cart.That's what happened at the St Joe's nursing home for some of our patients kept going into work as caretakers sick since they needed the jobs and benefit.
this is where I come in. clearly, they are scared of speaking up, rocking the boat and losing job and benefits. stifled. we've seen this before at NH and warehouses.
we have a guy at Clark warehouse with several sick workers who went back after they shut down for a week to " disinfect". he started feeling unwell after 2 hours back after reopening. when pressed he had actually had a slight cough for a week or two but didn't say anything. thought maybe he was having anxiety attack -after all it's upsetting going back where there was multiple positive cases.
So Even though my testing has increased a lot, I still don't have unlimited supplies. but I tell him to leave work and And he tests positive. So now his job, warehouse has to go back and rethink the whole thing again. now this is a 63-year-old guy with zero medical problems and on no chronic
meds or other obvious risk and was doing well at home for two weeks thereafter and then we got a hysterical call from his wife and son and he went into a respiratory arrest around day 15. ultimately was ventilated given all the cocktails and plasma and yesterday both feet went pulseless and he's a goner. . The warehouse has been constantly contacting us asking after his well-being but we Can't give any info and the family is sick with mild- moderate covid themselves and emotionally stunned..
getting back to the Bayonne situation. I started at the bottom calling them out and worked my way up to the governor. when I was giving details to governors assistant ,she paused and she became upset on phone telling me about her own losses and then exclaimed." that's my Drs office in Bayonne".. I said oops… The governor's rep- a bit snarky- wanted to know why those workers were allowing that to happen and not just going to their own doctors for help get them out of the situation.
I told her- a. because some people are passive and fear loss of jobs and benefits and b. in this situation the covid positive workers use one of the two doctors in their own office who work for management co.
I called patient back and told him get your wife out of there and in quarantine. "the gov wants her out and I will give her a note."
by the end of the day ,one of my old cronies - who's a New Jersey senator,got back to me- He's been busy trying to keep Murphy's food line going and having trouble because Wakefern wants antibody testing set up for all their employees and he's struggling understanding and setting up - understanding all the problems with sensitivity and specificity. And when I tell him, hey Joe, I'm impressed that you even understand that shit. He tells me "pretty good for a JFK grad HS grad, huh? lol. Wait until the second wave he says. anyway he wants to personally talk to the health care worker who actually remained most of the day at work despite my pleas and finally was sent home by the other doctor who reportedly started battling with the head honchos who already heard about me being the troublemaker.
So around 9:00 p.m. I get a call from the Bayonne health commissioner and she's sounds experience and smart, as sharp as a tack. she's going to take care of this situation going on at that Bayonne facility without trying to kill them but to "educate" them. And we start talking and and she starts asking my opinion about how we should go about letting people out and who should be let out first. And we're talking about the antibodies and titers and neutralization and then at the end of the conversation she says…." I've never been at such a loss. I'm not looking forward to the second wave."
So sometimes it's difficult to relate anecdotal stories to statistics and predictions. Anecdotally, although you could feel that the social distancing is working - at the same time you can feel the second wave coming.
High risk limo driver .. poorly controlled poorly compliant diabetic hypertensive obese passive avoidant personality.
He tells me he " doesn't know what to do" He is very high risk and he knows it . He tells me that his wife is covid positive having been tested for the first time May 5. she works at a doctor's office/satellite clinic at Bayonne, on Kennedy Blvd called Care Point. reportedly ,they have not been seeing patients for weeks or doing any testing and only have been doing virtual visits. although I'm his doctor, I am not hers, so I didn't do the testing ,but I have gotten to know her since they got married a couple years ago. she's taken over his care like he's a little kid and got him a little bit in line. So why did she get tested along with her other eight workmates including another doctor in that office?
well it turns out that two weeks earlier the main doctor his - name is Dr D. comes down with covid respiratory infection and disappears and is not heard from and presumably and logically in quarantine. again there's been no patient contact (And we all know now that the vast majority of people are getting sick at home including health care professionals) and logically you would think that they would have tested the entire, close intimate staff at the time of the 1st docs case, but for some reason they wait 2 weeks.
..after 2 weeks decide to test rest of staff about 8 to 10 people with NP swab.
3 come back positive including my patient's wife. people are allegedly asymptomatic.
So I tell limo man that of course he's in quarantine as a household close contact, I'll see him and test him tomorrow, and ask if I can talk to his wife who I assume is somewhere in their house in quarantine. He tells me I can't talk with her unless he gets her on phone at work. What? Huh?
this care point management supposedly tells them ...take your temp and get back to work. she protests but goes unheard,unsupported. Her personal Dr is in same office and playing dumb about whole thing and vascillating with her recommendations, and comments.
seemingly the management and human resources rules the day even over CDC and local public health recommendations.
we generally see one kind of patient who amplifies or imagine symptoms and wants out of work- though they're considered vital.
or the other type who goes to work sick and who's passive and scared to say anything for loss of job and benefits and upsetting the apple cart.That's what happened at the St Joe's nursing home for some of our patients kept going into work as caretakers sick since they needed the jobs and benefit.
this is where I come in. clearly, they are scared of speaking up, rocking the boat and losing job and benefits. stifled. we've seen this before at NH and warehouses.
we have a guy at Clark warehouse with several sick workers who went back after they shut down for a week to " disinfect". he started feeling unwell after 2 hours back after reopening. when pressed he had actually had a slight cough for a week or two but didn't say anything. thought maybe he was having anxiety attack -after all it's upsetting going back where there was multiple positive cases.
So Even though my testing has increased a lot, I still don't have unlimited supplies. but I tell him to leave work and And he tests positive. So now his job, warehouse has to go back and rethink the whole thing again. now this is a 63-year-old guy with zero medical problems and on no chronic
meds or other obvious risk and was doing well at home for two weeks thereafter and then we got a hysterical call from his wife and son and he went into a respiratory arrest around day 15. ultimately was ventilated given all the cocktails and plasma and yesterday both feet went pulseless and he's a goner. . The warehouse has been constantly contacting us asking after his well-being but we Can't give any info and the family is sick with mild- moderate covid themselves and emotionally stunned..
getting back to the Bayonne situation. I started at the bottom calling them out and worked my way up to the governor. when I was giving details to governors assistant ,she paused and she became upset on phone telling me about her own losses and then exclaimed." that's my Drs office in Bayonne".. I said oops… The governor's rep- a bit snarky- wanted to know why those workers were allowing that to happen and not just going to their own doctors for help get them out of the situation.
I told her- a. because some people are passive and fear loss of jobs and benefits and b. in this situation the covid positive workers use one of the two doctors in their own office who work for management co.
I called patient back and told him get your wife out of there and in quarantine. "the gov wants her out and I will give her a note."
by the end of the day ,one of my old cronies - who's a New Jersey senator,got back to me- He's been busy trying to keep Murphy's food line going and having trouble because Wakefern wants antibody testing set up for all their employees and he's struggling understanding and setting up - understanding all the problems with sensitivity and specificity. And when I tell him, hey Joe, I'm impressed that you even understand that shit. He tells me "pretty good for a JFK grad HS grad, huh? lol. Wait until the second wave he says. anyway he wants to personally talk to the health care worker who actually remained most of the day at work despite my pleas and finally was sent home by the other doctor who reportedly started battling with the head honchos who already heard about me being the troublemaker.
So around 9:00 p.m. I get a call from the Bayonne health commissioner and she's sounds experience and smart, as sharp as a tack. she's going to take care of this situation going on at that Bayonne facility without trying to kill them but to "educate" them. And we start talking and and she starts asking my opinion about how we should go about letting people out and who should be let out first. And we're talking about the antibodies and titers and neutralization and then at the end of the conversation she says…." I've never been at such a loss. I'm not looking forward to the second wave."
That's the problem, though, a "sweeping" generalization of all states. Individual states are in much different stages in terms of "Peak COVID."
NC seems to be basing its reopening on economic reasons and on the diminishing cases in NY/NJ than on NC.
Wow. Number one, thanks for the epic post this morning. I actually read everything as I try to keep in my foot firmly entrenched in medicine but try to keep the reality of our society in mind. This is a difficult balance for some considering the dire need to generate income/satisfy emoloyers versus the lack of knowledge to realize the severity of this virus. The reality is these decisions are made by higher ups to continue operating their business, fail to prevent positive Covid-19 employees from working, and will promote the continued spread of this virus. We need a cure or an effective vaccine soon to help stem the tide of stupidity occurring..and I'm sure your examples are only a smattering of the sheer volume of knucklehead activity occurring. Thank you for your efforts not only to treat people, but also for your ability to go above and beyond to identify and help rectify some of the problems mentioned above.
Both studies are flawed for a similar reason.
The first one you mention states that the mean days since symptoms onset is 16.6 days. That relegates to the useless pile as we already know, that administering an anti-viral after the virus has pretty much completed its course is practically useless. It is putting your seatbelt on after the accident. How dumb can we be? And these guys are running a clinical? And people are making judgements based on such clinical? Scary.
It does not matter whether it was mild or severe. The concept of an anti-viral is treating at symptom onset or even before and yes it is possible to test positive and not yet have symptoms. They mention that at least some of the patients where given HCQ as early as 3 days after onset but they did no analysis of HCQ vs time from onset. Talk about terrible science and then they conclude after terrible science that is of no benefit to mild or moderate cases. This is what you get when you have pinheads doing research.
As for the second study, same situation that they were patients so far along they were being admitted to emergency rooms. At that point it is too late for benefit from an anti-viral. A retrospective study of HCQ on really sick patients where the virus has already run it's course is just more bad information.
None of what I say suggests in anyway HCQ works. What we do need is the results of the PEP study by the Univ. of Minnesota
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Yeah, agree they may have wanted to wait a bit, but at the same time they are at only 51 deaths per 1mil, which is pretty low.
Also, it would be useful to know how many of the 51 per 1M is from LTCs. If anything like NJ, then that 51 might be more like 20-25 per 1M. I will keep repeating our lockdown status has very little impact on LTC deaths as they have all been locked down since before the general public. If it is mostly at LTCs, the answer is better protection by testing workers and LTC patients not locking down the whole state.
How effective has the house arrest really been?Cuomo admitted that 84 per cent of New York's hospitalizations were from nursing homes or from people who were isolating.
Interesting that yesterday's Chris Martenson video was removed by youtube. It was criticizing our government's response from what I can tell. Are we now part of the CCP and have to control the narrative? Very sad indeed. @ashokan
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People really need to stop misinterpreting that data...
Frontier Airlines will begin checking temperatures of passengers on June 1.If a passenger temperature exceeds 100.4,they will not be permitted to board.
Wouldn't oxygen levels be a much better indicator than would temperatures whose elevation could have many other causes?
Wouldn't oxygen levels be a much better indicator than would temperatures whose elevation could have many other causes?
Sharply diminished O2 sats are suggestive of critical phase Covid-19. A pulse oximeter would fail to catch +98% of infected patients. Additionally, there are multiple unrelated conditions that would result in low O2 sats.
The whole question about how to measure the severity of the epidemic in various areas is interesting and not straightforward. In our county the number of new cases has been increasing steadily in the range of 30-50 cases per day since late March. At the same time, the number of hospitalized and ICU patients is now at its lowest point since April 11. The number of tests has increased quite a bit over the past 2 weeks. What does this tell us and what does it mean in terms of re-opening?
My interpretation is that the overall severity of the outbreak here has been decreasing, based mainly on the decreasing rates of hospitalized and ICU patients. Testing rate now is twice what it was back in March and the first half of April so I suspect that is driving the rate of new cases - presumably if we had the same testing capacity a month or two ago we would have seen more cases during that time.
It seems to be there now - I know during yesterday's video he mentioned that the one from Wednesday had been removed (or de-listed or whatever term he used). It doesn't surprise me. All of the social media platforms have been censoring covid data since January. When this all started if you typed "cornavirus" or "wuhan pneumonia" into google you got all kinds of twitter hits, many from sources in China. Very quickly they changed that so the search results all directed to CDC, WHO, cnn, NYTimes, etc. Twitter has repeatedly blocked/cancelled accounts that showed videos from Wuhan. If you click on links to go to certain outside sites (zerohedge being one) you get a warning about the website potentially being unsafe (makes it look like a malware risk). Martenson is always talking about people getting unsubscribed to his videos by youtube.
Add to that detailed data to understand:
1) who is still being infected and how (LTCs, essential workers, isolaters, etc)
2) accurate estimates of IFR in various age groups, health conditions
3) accurate data on treatments that help in each phase of the virus' course (PREP, PEP, CRS, CS)
4) testing capacities
5) testing strategies
6) contact tracing strategies
7) potential isolation strategies for those infected
Not a complete list but that was just off the top of my head.
Of course. The "who is being infected and how" is a biggie. I think I mentioned in a post a day or two ago that I've been asking our health department and county exec about that for a couple of weeks. They finally gave a sort of answer to that in a press conference. Someone had asked about where people were getting infected and why a certain area was a relative hotspot. The answer? "That's something we need to dig into and look at the data." WTH have they been doing for the past 2 months?
I literally LOL'd when I saw Cuomo state in his press conference that the majority of people were getting infected at home. If that's the best we can say after 2 months of this, then I don't have a good feeling about what happens when things are opened up.
Some the issue is there is a difference between being well educated and having the ability to solve problems. Not just understand the problem or empathize with those suffering. Actually find solutions. Especially elegant ones.
What we need in all levels of leadership during a crisis is folks with problem solving skills. I don't care how many degrees they have or that they spent a lifetime in politics. Can you solve the problems we face. My time on this planet have taught me that problem solving is a unique skill that many/most lack in abundance. There is a big difference between well educated and actual critical thinker.
And these are the people (big tech) who we are going to put in charge of contact tracing, disease surveillance, certificates of health, etc.
Just a matter of time before people criticizing our government's response end up on a list preventing them from getting medical clearance to reenter society.
The studies weren't "flawed." They were completed with the design and intent stated. You may disagree with the design, but that doesn't mean they were run improperly or were useless, in any way. In a pandemic, where it's not quite clear what works, medically/pharmacologically, and what doesn't, it's worth looking at various stages of the disease, especially given the claims of Raoult and others that HCQ or HCQ/Az are a "cure" for moderately sick patients. The two studies above are two more that show it is not a cure.
The retrospective study the other day from Wuhan showing lower mortality in moderately to severely sick patients treated with HCQ vs. standard of care was intriguing, as it proposed that HCQ was being effective in a more "traditional" sense by utilizing its known anti-inflammatory effects to prevent the cytokine storm and this is the most promising of any of the HCQ studies to date, so I'm surprised you're focusing on prevention. However, people have just noted that that Wuhan study has some "irregularities" and might have been HCQ vs. an herbal treatment instead of vs. standard of care.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/05/04/hydroxychloroquine-update-may-4
You also continue to ignore the guidance from the Lupus Foundation, which says there's no known prophylactic effect of HCQ in lupus patients, as well as the study I've cited a few times showing COVID is even more prevalent than expected in lupus patients. While it could be lupus patients aren't representative of all patients, it's certainly a red flag for that approach. And to boot, that "Italian study" claiming only 20 of 65,000 lupus patients taking HCQ have COVID was more made up shit. The same blog above has this update, below. It's 20 out of 150.
Update: here’s the answer. The number is completely fictional. As mentioned here in the comments, the president of the Italian Rheumatology Society was contacted directly and states that this number is completely wrong, that the society is monitoring 150 patients in its registry, 20 of whom are taking hydroxychloroquine. The 65,000 number is bogus.
https://ard.bmj.com/content/annrheumdis/early/2020/04/24/annrheumdis-2020-217656.full.pdf
Also, your insistence that HCQ is an "anti-viral" is questionable. Yes it shows anti-viral activity in-vitro, but to date it hasn't shown any significant anti-viral activity in humans and that's what's really important - there are tons of compounds that work in petri dishes that don't work in the real world. You seem to have trouble understanding that concept, which is why drug R&D and clinical research is mostly filled with failures - it's simply really hard to prove safety and efficacy in humans. The paper that came out today has the following conclusion on this topic:
The in-vitro cell culture based data of viral inhibition does not suffice for the use of hydroxychloroquine in the patients with COVID-19. Current literature shows inadequate, low level evidence in human studies. Scarcity of safety and efficacy data warrants medical communities, health care agencies and governments across the world against the widespread use of hydroxychloroquine in COVID-19 prophylaxis and treatment, until robust evidence becomes available.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20068205v2.full.pdf
IMO and in the opinion of most medical professionals, as I've posted before, it's time to stop using HCQ in anything other than the ongoing clinical trials.
Since it shows it in-vitro anti-viral properties, would not the logical thing be to study it in that capacity?
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To further prove how little you understand, you keep mentioning the lupus foundation quote when that would be regarding PREP pre-exposure prophylactic treatment. The concept of the in-vitro study suggests it have possibilities as an early treatment to slow virus replication. That is very different than PREP and also different than treating when the virus has completed it's course and patients are in trouble. Why don't you get the scrub from science magazine to explain it to you. If he doesn't understand then for a fee I will explain it to him.
On a sidenote, that article about 65,000 was from a MSM newspaper in Italy. I guess you can't trust everything you read.
Tamiflu does not work as a PREP and also does not have an effect after a few days of symptom onset. Does that mean Tamiflu does not work? Studies have shown that when given at onset of symptoms, or even post exposure but pre-symptoms, it significantly reduces the course of the disease. If HCQ works the same way we could prevent thousands of deaths. Out of all the clinical studies, it took Dr Boulware of the Univ. of Minnesota to finally start this investigation. They hope to be done and have results within a few weeks.
So what the studies you have posted are telling us is the equivalent of saying Tamiflu does not prevent the flu and does not help once hospitalized for it. Did you really need those studies to expect these results?
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So 69 new deaths reported by Florida. 3 straight days of 60+ deaths being reported.
But only 12 listed for yesterday. Which should not be interpreted as 12 people died yesterday from Covid, only that they have so far only attributed 12 to that day. Meanwhile they are attributing more deaths to previous days, They now have 49 deaths for Monday, which as of now is their highest total since 4/23, and who knows if they are done attributing deaths to that day. I'm pretty confident in saying that their total of 12 for yesterday will increase pretty dramatically in coming days.
In other words their "downward trend" in deaths is pretty misleading.
But only 12 listed for yesterday. Which should not be interpreted as 12 people died yesterday from Covid, only that they have so far only attributed 12 to that day. Meanwhile they are attributing more deaths to previous days, They now have 49 deaths for Monday, which as of now is their highest total since 4/23, and who knows if they are done attributing deaths to that day. I'm pretty confident in saying that their total of 12 for yesterday will increase pretty dramatically in coming days.
In other words their "downward trend" in deaths is pretty misleading.
Murphy now creating a "restarting advisory committee" with hundreds of people involved that will inform his 21 person Reopening Commission. The Restarting advisory committee will begin videoconferencing on Monday to create the guidelines for reopening to give the to 21 person Reopening Commission.
More than 1 in 9 New Jerseyans are unemployed. Not 1 in 9 working age New Jerseyans. 1 in 9 including children and retirees. I have many friends who filed for benefits in March, and are waiting, broke, and cannot talk to anyone on the phone or get an email answered. While Rome burns, Murphy creates layers of bureaucracy for political cover to justify his delays. Pennsylvania began reopening today, and Connecticut has circled May 20th. New Jersey, despite continued improving numbers, has no date. We have commissions and committees. It is unconscionable at this point.
More than 1 in 9 New Jerseyans are unemployed. Not 1 in 9 working age New Jerseyans. 1 in 9 including children and retirees. I have many friends who filed for benefits in March, and are waiting, broke, and cannot talk to anyone on the phone or get an email answered. While Rome burns, Murphy creates layers of bureaucracy for political cover to justify his delays. Pennsylvania began reopening today, and Connecticut has circled May 20th. New Jersey, despite continued improving numbers, has no date. We have commissions and committees. It is unconscionable at this point.
On a note of Testing in NJ looking at the stats on Real Clear Politics. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/country/united-states/, NJ has conducted 297081 tests. This is below New York, Cal, Florida, Texas, Ill, and Mass. But, NJ has the 2nd highest number of deaths and the second highest confirmed cases. Is this number correct? And if so why are we doing such a bad job at testing?
Don't worry Johnny Stephen Colbert's wife is on that committee so we are in good hands.
Fair point, but I did a quick check, as it was very late, and didn't see any testing numbers, so went with the cases and deaths; I since found the testing numbers after seeing your post - thanks. Agree cases can be a function of testing, which is why I've often said to take case rates with a grain of salt, although having positive tests <10% is usually a very good sign.
However, it's also possible they're just early in their outbreak and not growing exponentially yet, as some have postulated (wouldn't be surprising being off the beaten track and with such a low population density of about 63/sq mi vs. NJ's 1195/sq mi), but at least they'll be able to see that if they truly are growing fast, unlike our area where we had no tests at that time. The observation that today has a new high in positives and deaths is certainly not a good sign. I also included deaths since they're far less likely to be non-representative of the outbreak than cases can be and deaths rising is never a good sign.
Agreed - this is why the ability to test massively is so important - they now have the chance to keep ahead of outbreaks, even with some loosening of social distancing/controls, although I would not have reopened with the data they have, which are in direct contradiction with the CDC's guidance on reopening.
You've probably missed me saying this, but at the end of the day, barring treatment/cure/vaccine, and if not doing the aggressive containment/control strategies needed to reduce transmission, the virus will simply infect to the herd immunity point, killing pretty similar percentages everywhere (outside of demographics and health care effectiveness, which should be minor US variable) of probably 0.2-0.7% (NY's infection fatality rate is around 0.7% vs. total infected from their antibody tests - the only state that has a handle on the true IFR so far).
And population density and mobility (if no interventions/social distancing) will control the rate at which herd immunity is achieved, but likely not the % infected/killed (if no cure/vaccine), i.e., it might take 6 months to reach herd immunity in NYC vs. 18 months in Wyoming. That's why interventions are not just about reducing overloading of hospitals - they're about saving hundreds of thousands of lives, too, especially if those deaths can be avoided and we actually have a good treatment or even a cure in the next few months (my $$ is on convalescent plasma being at least a very good lifesaving treatment for many and engineered antibodies, by late summer being a possible cure).
Relax Johnny, the king and his court will protect you. And just remember public health before public wealth, data determines dates and ignorance is strength.
I'm not just posting for you. Many have postulated it could be a prophylactic and you posted that crap "article" from an "Italian study" saying it had such amazing preventative results that was completely fake, so how am I to know you're only talking about early treatment in COVID patients?
And the concept of you explaining anything scientific to Derek Lowe is laughable - you can try though, as he entertains comments on his blog - would be especially entertaining if you posted some of the crap you've posted here in the past, like that libertymavenstock porphyrin/HCQ blog or Dr. Martenson's very biased view of HCQ or more stuff like the Italian "study."
Study on Abbott Labs antibody tests shows very strong accuracy.
From the article:
Researchers at the University of Washington School of Medicine found Abbott’s test had a specificity rate of 99.9% and a sensitivity rate of 100%, suggesting very few chances of incorrectly diagnosing a healthy person with the infection and no false negatives.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/08/stu...st-highly-likely-to-give-correct-results.html
From the article:
Researchers at the University of Washington School of Medicine found Abbott’s test had a specificity rate of 99.9% and a sensitivity rate of 100%, suggesting very few chances of incorrectly diagnosing a healthy person with the infection and no false negatives.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/08/stu...st-highly-likely-to-give-correct-results.html
The only thing laughable is you speaking without any knowledge of me and my abilities. Odds are more than 10,000 to 1 in my favor.
Can you share your qualifications with us? That's been more or less de rigueur on this forum for those who are subject matter experts.
Numbers is letting his politics cloud his judgment regarding HCQ.
Wrong. The only political thing I've said about HCQ is that the POTUS shouldn't have been hawking it like Ron Popeil. Instead of retyping, below is what I posted in response to wisr about his comment that I was politically biased on HCQ. In fact, I was one of the first (maybe the first, not sure) to post the breaking news on HCQ and was excited about the potential, then moved to skeptical after that shady dude Rigano showed up on Fox to hawk the drug, before POTUS said a word. I'm sure you won't read it, but it's there in case others want to.
I'd still love nothing more than for the ongoing controlled clinical trials to prove me and others wrong on HCQ, since that would mean we might really have something that works. I'm not holding my breath, though, since, typically, if a drug is highly effective or even close to a cure, the trials get stopped due to big outcome differences and that hasn't happened. Plus, when a drug is ineffective or only marginally effective, we often see what we're seeing with HCQ in uncontrolled trials - lots of conflicting data, with nothing definitively showing efficacy.
- Status
