ADVERTISEMENT

COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

Status
Not open for further replies.
No, that page has just not put the last couple days in their graph. Intentional?

61 was the last reported death total by Florida(not sure if that is counted for yesterday or today). Back to back 60 death days.
That's not really true. Those daily death counts are based on investigations being completed which vary in duration. They are allocated back to the actual days when those people died. For example, announcing 60 new deaths today doesn't mean that 60 people died today.
 
That's not really true. Those daily death counts are based on investigations being completed which vary in duration. They are allocated back to the actual days when those people died. For example, announcing 60 new deaths today doesn't mean that 60 people died today.
The count yesterday was 1539, today it's 1600. A little mathematics, and voila 61. 60 something the day prior as well.

Why haven't they posted the last 2 days in their graph? I don't know.
 
The count yesterday was 1539, today it's 1600. A little mathematics, and voila 61. 60 something the day prior as well.

Why haven't they posted the last 2 days in their graph? I don't know.
Takes a few days to figure out those daily data points. No big deal. The positive trend is clear.
 
Takes a few days to figure out those daily data points. No big deal. The positive trend is clear.
Is it?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

The 7 day average for deaths, as of yesterday was the highest it has been in the state.

Cases have rebounded off of a low as well.

There was a positive trend going, but now I don't think it is so clear they are heading in the right direction. Especially since they are in the midst of opening up.

Edit: And as I hear it from my mother north of Tampa, masks are not really a thing anymore.
 
Is it?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

The 7 day average for deaths, as of yesterday was the highest it has been in the state.

Cases have rebounded off of a low as well.

There was a positive trend going, but now I don't think it is so clear they are heading in the right direction. Especially since they are in the midst of opening up.

Edit: And as I hear it from my mother north of Tampa, masks are not really a thing anymore.
The data shows a positive trend, as per the dashboard. We shall see if it changes.
 
This one's for you @SkilletHead2 - not sure if I've seen you post on this, but New Zealand thinks they have "effectively eliminated" the coronavirus, via a travel ban from China on 2/2, full quarantine of all visitors starting 3/15 (when they only had 6 cases), aggressive early testing/tracing (they're in the top 10% of countries on testing per capita) and a strict lockdown starting 3/25, which is largely over now that new cases are down to zero. The country's 39-year old PM was able to get buy-in on the approach with the help of a team of scientists and health professionals, who are with her every day at their press updates. They've also been truthful with their people that this will require some austerity for awhile and the populace has responded, as they generally trust their government. Hmmm, trust and leadership.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...20200505&rid=3F7A7D00850AD922736B3173646A296D

The sudden austerity could have been a cause for panic. But each day, the 39-year-old Ardern, or “Jaz” as she’s popularly known, made clear, concise statements about the situation to the nation, bolstered by a team of scientists and health professionals. A few days after the lockdown, she announced that instead of just slowing the transmission of the virus, New Zealand had set a course of eradicating COVID-19 from its shores, by cutting off the arrival of new cases and choking out existing ones with the restrictions. “We have the opportunity to do something no other country has achieved: elimination of the virus,” said Ardern at one of her daily briefings.

From an outsider’s perspective, the interesting thing about New Zealand is that the country simply got on board. On day one of the lockdown, the streets and highways were empty, the shops were closed, and everyone stayed home. “I think it’s easier for us Kiwis to fall in line because we trust our leaders,” Sue Webster, the owner of the Airbnb where my wife and I holed up for almost four weeks, told me.
Sorry! Missed this the first time around. Aroha mai (Māori for "my bad").

To begin, I have never heard Jacinda referred to as "Jaz." Not sure where that came from. But I haven't met her, so maybe close friends call her that. (I've met each of the three previous PMs; it's a small country. Called them all by their first name. Moms Skillethead has had long chats with the previous two.) And second, that pic could not be further from an actual pic of Jacinda. This is what she looks like: https://time.com/collection/most-influential-people-2018/5217549/jacinda-ardern/ So, attractive, but not the babe in the pic.

We have several major natural advantages on this problem over countries like the US. First and foremost, we have a 2500 mile moat. Great for keeping people out.

Second, as a small island nation at the bottom of the world, we have a real national sense of "we have to take care of one another and this small place we call home." NZ is actually about the size of California, so not really that small, but certainly isolated.

Third, we have a parliamentary system of government. What the PM says, goes. She has the votes on most anything she wants to do. If the parliament rebels, we hold a new election.

Fourth, Kiwis are by and large incredibly nice people. We have our jerks like anybody else, but people say hi to one another on the street, help each other out, look out for folks who need help. I cannot tell you how many times we've been invited to dinner by people we've just met. Here's an example of Kiwiness: I was at a Home Depot like place that had a big garden section with plants. I was looking for a vine that would grow down over my dry stone wall. So I ask the guy who works in that area. He says, "Ah what you want is a hanging frimmitz (can't remember what they're called). They'll be great for your area." I say, "Super, do you guys sell them?" He says, "Sure, right over here." As we are walking to where they are he says, "Listen mate, you don't want to buy them here." I say, "I don't? Where should I buy them?" He says, "Nowhere. I've got a bunch of them at my place. I'll make you some cuttings and next week you come over and you can have them for free. Here's my address." And just today, my neighbor who runs his sheep and cattle on my land comes over with about a 20 pound bag of venison he's just butchered. Venison filet on the barbecue tonight.

Fifth, we live within our means. Thus, we don't have a large national debt and can afford a big wage subsidy plan to get us through this.

And sixth, people really do like Jacinda Ardern. She's a lovely person, incredibly smart, and seems to work around the clock. She says "I don't know" when she doesn't know, and "I'm sorry" when she makes a mistake. I actually liked our previous two PMs who were in the conservative party (called "National"). I didn't agree with many of their policies, but I knew that they had New Zealand's best interests at heart.

We've just moved from a very tight lockdown to a lesser one last week, and we will go to a near normal in about a week or so if everything goes right. I've actually enjoyed the lockdown, but then I've shown you guys a pic of where I live.

And, rugby is coming back! When it's back, I'll post a thread on it. If you have any chance to get it there, I can pretty much guarantee you'll like it if you like football (or "gridiron" as we refer to it here -- football is soccer, and "footy" is rugby -- "you watching the footy tonight?").

Hope this helps.

Skillet
 
Sorry! Missed this the first time around. Aroha mai (Māori for "my bad").

To begin, I have never heard Jacinda referred to as "Jaz." Not sure where that came from. But I haven't met her, so maybe close friends call her that. (I've met each of the three previous PMs; it's a small country. Called them all by their first name. Moms Skillethead has had long chats with the previous two.) And second, that pic could not be further from an actual pic of Jacinda. This is what she looks like: https://time.com/collection/most-influential-people-2018/5217549/jacinda-ardern/ So, attractive, but not the babe in the pic.

We have several major natural advantages on this problem over countries like the US. First and foremost, we have a 2500 mile moat. Great for keeping people out.

Second, as a small island nation at the bottom of the world, we have a real national sense of "we have to take care of one another and this small place we call home." NZ is actually about the size of California, so not really that small, but certainly isolated.

Third, we have a parliamentary system of government. What the PM says, goes. She has the votes on most anything she wants to do. If the parliament rebels, we hold a new election.

Fourth, Kiwis are by and large incredibly nice people. We have our jerks like anybody else, but people say hi to one another on the street, help each other out, look out for folks who need help. I cannot tell you how many times we've been invited to dinner by people we've just met. Here's an example of Kiwiness: I was at a Home Depot like place that had a big garden section with plants. I was looking for a vine that would grow down over my dry stone wall. So I ask the guy who works in that area. He says, "Ah what you want is a hanging frimmitz (can't remember what they're called). They'll be great for your area." I say, "Super, do you guys sell them?" He says, "Sure, right over here." As we are walking to where they are he says, "Listen mate, you don't want to buy them here." I say, "I don't? Where should I buy them?" He says, "Nowhere. I've got a bunch of them at my place. I'll make you some cuttings and next week you come over and you can have them for free. Here's my address." And just today, my neighbor who runs his sheep and cattle on my land comes over with about a 20 pound bag of venison he's just butchered. Venison filet on the barbecue tonight.

Fifth, we live within our means. Thus, we don't have a large national debt and can afford a big wage subsidy plan to get us through this.

And sixth, people really do like Jacinda Ardern. She's a lovely person, incredibly smart, and seems to work around the clock. She says "I don't know" when she doesn't know, and "I'm sorry" when she makes a mistake. I actually liked our previous two PMs who were in the conservative party (called "National"). I didn't agree with many of their policies, but I knew that they had New Zealand's best interests at heart.

We've just moved from a very tight lockdown to a lesser one last week, and we will go to a near normal in about a week or so if everything goes right. I've actually enjoyed the lockdown, but then I've shown you guys a pic of where I live.

And, rugby is coming back! When it's back, I'll post a thread on it. If you have any chance to get it there, I can pretty much guarantee you'll like it if you like football (or "gridiron" as we refer to it here -- football is soccer, and "footy" is rugby -- "you watching the footy tonight?").

Hope this helps.

Skillet
Are the tours of Middle Earth and the Shire back up and running?
 
  • Like
Reactions: biker7766
Are the tours of Middle Earth and the Shire back up and running?
Actually, they will be. Funny thing is that filming took place all over NZ. I'm honestly not a big LoTR fan, and when people say, "this is where the Raiders of Rohan scene was shot" I just nod like it means something to me.
 
Actually, they will be. Funny thing is that filming took place all over NZ. I'm honestly not a big LoTR fan, and when people say, "this is where the Raiders of Rohan scene was shot" I just nod like it means something to me.
A real NZ'er knows everything about LotR. I'm sure they can retrace Frodo's steps to Mount Doom. :)
I believe Amazon or Netfix is making a Tolkien series, so perhaps the tourism will kick back up again.
 
  • Like
Reactions: biker7766
The data shows a positive trend, as per the dashboard. We shall see if it changes.
As noted the dashboard was not up to date.

Worldometer, though it's daily counts are erratic likely due to troubles in information gathering, does have the rolling 7 day averages, and from that we see upward movements in both cases and deaths in the past week.
 
As noted the dashboard was not up to date.

Worldometer, though it's daily counts are erratic likely due to troubles in information gathering, does have the rolling 7 day averages, and from that we see upward movements in both cases and deaths in the past week.
The Florida dashboard is the official count for the state. As of now, it shows a positive trend. Let's be patient and see what happens.
 
The Florida dashboard is the official count for the state. As of now, it shows a positive trend. Let's be patient and see what happens.
Like I said it's not up to date. The last 2 days of deaths, though in the official count, are not on their graph.
 
Actually, IMO, the amazing thing is that even though the cases and deaths significantly exceeded models/expectations for NYC Metro, leading to the hospital systems struggling and buckling at times, the systems never really failed completely anywhere, which is a testament to how well NY/NJ planned ahead for and responded to the onslaught of patients and patient needs. The outbreak here was more than twice as bad as those in Italy/Spain on a cases/deaths per capita basis, yet Italy's health care system completely failed (especially in Northern Italy) and ours did not. I'd call that a very underappreciated success story. @LETSGORU91 @RUfubar - assuming you guys would agree.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...social-distancing.191275/page-24#post-4458943

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...social-distancing.191275/page-61#post-4497445

Given the piss poor efforts early on by the federal government to mitigate the spread of this virus, I'd say the tri-state are has done a pretty good job holding down the fort. I get that most people are frustrated from being cooped up, maybe unemployed, etc. I have been in the position to see and hear the devastation Covid-19 has caused on many hospitals here in NNJ. Some accounts are mind boggling. It was more than bursting at the seams and not having a collapse of the entire healthcare delivery system is pretty unbelievable.
 
Like I said it's not up to date. The last 2 days of deaths, though in the official count, are not on their graph.
Patience.
It takes a little time to get accurate data. NYC posts current day data, but it comes with a huge * citing the info is incomplete. FL decided to wait.
 
You were insuating that in your reply

I've never once said we're absolutely going to have a treatment or cure for COVID in probably 100+ posts on that topic. I have said many times that I think convalescent plasma containing antibodies and/or engineered antibodies have the greatest potential to become a bona fide treatment, which could save many to most people with serious infections (and that they could also be prophylactic for months or more, especially for high risk people). Big difference.
 
Sorry! Missed this the first time around. Aroha mai (Māori for "my bad").

To begin, I have never heard Jacinda referred to as "Jaz." Not sure where that came from. But I haven't met her, so maybe close friends call her that. (I've met each of the three previous PMs; it's a small country. Called them all by their first name. Moms Skillethead has had long chats with the previous two.) And second, that pic could not be further from an actual pic of Jacinda. This is what she looks like: https://time.com/collection/most-influential-people-2018/5217549/jacinda-ardern/ So, attractive, but not the babe in the pic.

We have several major natural advantages on this problem over countries like the US. First and foremost, we have a 2500 mile moat. Great for keeping people out.

Second, as a small island nation at the bottom of the world, we have a real national sense of "we have to take care of one another and this small place we call home." NZ is actually about the size of California, so not really that small, but certainly isolated.

Third, we have a parliamentary system of government. What the PM says, goes. She has the votes on most anything she wants to do. If the parliament rebels, we hold a new election.

Fourth, Kiwis are by and large incredibly nice people. We have our jerks like anybody else, but people say hi to one another on the street, help each other out, look out for folks who need help. I cannot tell you how many times we've been invited to dinner by people we've just met. Here's an example of Kiwiness: I was at a Home Depot like place that had a big garden section with plants. I was looking for a vine that would grow down over my dry stone wall. So I ask the guy who works in that area. He says, "Ah what you want is a hanging frimmitz (can't remember what they're called). They'll be great for your area." I say, "Super, do you guys sell them?" He says, "Sure, right over here." As we are walking to where they are he says, "Listen mate, you don't want to buy them here." I say, "I don't? Where should I buy them?" He says, "Nowhere. I've got a bunch of them at my place. I'll make you some cuttings and next week you come over and you can have them for free. Here's my address." And just today, my neighbor who runs his sheep and cattle on my land comes over with about a 20 pound bag of venison he's just butchered. Venison filet on the barbecue tonight.

Fifth, we live within our means. Thus, we don't have a large national debt and can afford a big wage subsidy plan to get us through this.

And sixth, people really do like Jacinda Ardern. She's a lovely person, incredibly smart, and seems to work around the clock. She says "I don't know" when she doesn't know, and "I'm sorry" when she makes a mistake. I actually liked our previous two PMs who were in the conservative party (called "National"). I didn't agree with many of their policies, but I knew that they had New Zealand's best interests at heart.

We've just moved from a very tight lockdown to a lesser one last week, and we will go to a near normal in about a week or so if everything goes right. I've actually enjoyed the lockdown, but then I've shown you guys a pic of where I live.

And, rugby is coming back! When it's back, I'll post a thread on it. If you have any chance to get it there, I can pretty much guarantee you'll like it if you like football (or "gridiron" as we refer to it here -- football is soccer, and "footy" is rugby -- "you watching the footy tonight?").

Hope this helps.

Skillet

Thanks for popping in and letting us know how it's going over there. I agree it would have been harder here, but not impossible, if we had been properly prepared and had followed the Federal Pandemic Plan we already had on the books. South Korea showed how it could be done, via the same basic playbook (there's no secrets in how to do this: early aggressive testing, tracing, isolating and wearing masks and practicing social distancing) including in a metropolitan area very similar to NYC, with regard to total population and density, and they were right next door to China with quite a bit of travel to SK from there for awhile. It also helps to have proactive political leadership and alignment . Sounds like a great place, although I don't think I could ever live that far away from NJ, lol. Would love to get there someday.
 
Two more studies showing HCQ ineffective, including one that was controlled and randomized. The first one comes from research in China and it showed no efficacy of HCQ treatment in a randomized and controlled (standard of care - SOC- as the control), although open label (patients and docs knew who got what treatment) trial of 150 patients in two groups of 75 (HCQ + SOC vs. just SOC). This paper is still just a preprint, though and has not been peer-reviewed, but it is one of the first and largest controlled/randomized studies to date. This study concluded that:

"The administration of HCQ did not result in a significantly higher negative conversion probability than SOC alone in patients mainly hospitalized with persistent mild to moderate COVID–19. Adverse events were higher in HCQ recipients than in HCQ non–recipients."

https://www.researchhub.com/paper/781010/summary#paper

The second one was conducted in NYC and is a retrospective observational study (not controlled/randomized), so it has modest value, like most studies of this type. However, it's also not a lower confidence preprint like many others - it's been peer-reviewed and was published in a premier journal (NEJM) and was not a small study (was 1376 patients with 58% treated with HCQ and the rest not. The conclusions were as follows:

In this observational study involving patients with Covid-19 who had been admitted to the hospital, hydroxychloroquine administration was not associated with either a greatly lowered or an increased risk of the composite end point of intubation or death. Randomized, controlled trials of hydroxychloroquine in patients with Covid-19 are needed.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2012410?query=featured_home
 
SIAP, but this is insane: "Arizona responds to projected rise in COVID-19 cases by ordering experts to stop making models." This is per the order from GOP governor Doug Ducey, who apparently doesn't want pesky data getting in the way of his aggressive reopening plans, but even if one ignores the models, looking at the actual data ought to be enough to scare the crap out of people in Arizona, but despite the data below, Ducey says the outbreak is on a downward trajectory, as per the quote below. Seriously?

But Ducey, a Republican, moved ahead with plans to reopen restaurants and beauty salons anyway, arguing that the state was "headed in the right direction" Monday as he cited a "downward trajectory." Ducey originally extended his stay-at-home order until May 15 but changed his mind and announced Monday that certain business could reopen even sooner.

https://www.salon.com/2020/05/07/ar...es-by-ordering-experts-to-stop-making-models/


4nUR1Sm.png
 
SIAP, but this is insane: "Arizona responds to projected rise in COVID-19 cases by ordering experts to stop making models." This is per the order from GOP governor Doug Ducey, who apparently doesn't want pesky data getting in the way of his aggressive reopening plans, but even if one ignores the models, looking at the actual data ought to be enough to scare the crap out of people in Arizona, but despite the data below, Ducey says the outbreak is on a downward trajectory, as per the quote below. Seriously?

But Ducey, a Republican, moved ahead with plans to reopen restaurants and beauty salons anyway, arguing that the state was "headed in the right direction" Monday as he cited a "downward trajectory." Ducey originally extended his stay-at-home order until May 15 but changed his mind and announced Monday that certain business could reopen even sooner.

https://www.salon.com/2020/05/07/ar...es-by-ordering-experts-to-stop-making-models/


4nUR1Sm.png

It's pretty surprising to see someone who has written so many words on this topic and has referenced their own expertise in understanding the data to make a post like this one. You would seemingly know better than anyone that the data you posted is really wholly irrelevant to your point (i.e., that things are getting more severe in Arizona, so it is misguided to open things up more). Citing number of cases and deaths is useless without context and other data.

Arizona was running 2,000 tests per day on rough average until April 30. Since then their reports indicate that they have been on a testing blitz. On May 7, they reported nearly 20,000 tests!

Of the 19,349 test results reported by Arizona on May 7, a total of 238 were positive. Moreover, they have had only a cumulative total of 1,449 hospitalized with covid the entire time. 449 deaths in the state to date. There are less than 800 in the entire state hospitalized presently, and under 300 in the ICU. Arizona has a population that is only a little less than NJ.

Other than for political purposes, it is hard to imagine a rational basis for your criticism. You of all people should be applauding Arizona for their aggressive increase in testing, which is what we need in actuality, and not more models, and not more cable news type opinions.

But hey, at least you got to mention that the Governor there is a Republican and imply that he must be brain dead.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ATIOH and RU5781
It's pretty surprising to see someone who has written so many words on this topic and has referenced their own expertise in understanding the data to make a post like this one. You would seemingly know better than anyone that the data you posted is really wholly irrelevant to your point (i.e., that things are getting more severe in Arizona, so it is misguided to open things up more). Citing number of cases and deaths is useless without context and other data.

Arizona was running 2,000 tests per day on rough average until April 30. Since then their reports indicate that they have been on a testing blitz. On May 7, they reported nearly 20,000 tests!

Of the 19,349 test results reported by Arizona on May 7, a total of 238 were positive. Moreover, they have had only a cumulative total of 1,449 hospitalized with covid the entire time. 449 deaths in the state to date. There are less than 800 in the entire state hospitalized presently, and under 300 in the ICU. Arizona has a population that is only a little less than NJ.

Other than for political purposes, it is hard to imagine a rational basis for your criticism. You of all people should be applauding Arizona for their aggressive increase in testing, which is what we need in actuality, and not more models, and not more cable news type opinions.

But hey, at least you got to mention that the Governor there is a Republican and imply that he must be brain dead.
Actually, Numb3rs is right here. You're making the assumption that the rate of positive results should maintain as the testing is increased, but there's no reason for that to be the case. In all likelihood, Arizona went to more survey-purposed testing when they had the tests available to them. Although we now know that there are unreported cases, the Arizona data are pretty strong indicators that the virus is far from being under control. And the number of deaths, unless there is a big problem with reporting, are pretty clear and independent of the number of tests that were run on any given day.

The big hope for Arizona would be that they are not as densely populated as NJ and if they have a strong social distancing and protective gear regimen, might keep the number of cases from increasing.
 
Actually, Numb3rs is right here. You're making the assumption that the rate of positive results should maintain as the testing is increased, but there's no reason for that to be the case. In all likelihood, Arizona went to more survey-purposed testing when they had the tests available to them. Although we now know that there are unreported cases, the Arizona data are pretty strong indicators that the virus is far from being under control. And the number of deaths, unless there is a big problem with reporting, are pretty clear and independent of the number of tests that were run on any given day.

The big hope for Arizona would be that they are not as densely populated as NJ and if they have a strong social distancing and protective gear regimen, might keep the number of cases from increasing.
Not exactly.

Over the past three days, 88 new deaths have been reported, marking a significant increase from days prior. But many of those deaths may not have actually occurred this week. The number of new deaths reported each day represents the additional known deaths identified by the health department that day, but they are often not identified on the actual death date, and could have occurred weeks prior.

According to the department's data, the dates with the most deaths in a single day so far are April 19 and April 20, with 20 deaths each.


Arizona has significantly increased diagnostic testing over the past two weeks due to loosened testing requirements and the weekend blitz. The percentage of positive tests per week decreased from 11% three weeks ago to 7% last week, likely in part because a broader range of people are being tested rather than just the very sick.


 
It's pretty surprising to see someone who has written so many words on this topic and has referenced their own expertise in understanding the data to make a post like this one. You would seemingly know better than anyone that the data you posted is really wholly irrelevant to your point (i.e., that things are getting more severe in Arizona, so it is misguided to open things up more). Citing number of cases and deaths is useless without context and other data.

Arizona was running 2,000 tests per day on rough average until April 30. Since then their reports indicate that they have been on a testing blitz. On May 7, they reported nearly 20,000 tests!

Of the 19,349 test results reported by Arizona on May 7, a total of 238 were positive. Moreover, they have had only a cumulative total of 1,449 hospitalized with covid the entire time. 449 deaths in the state to date. There are less than 800 in the entire state hospitalized presently, and under 300 in the ICU. Arizona has a population that is only a little less than NJ.

Other than for political purposes, it is hard to imagine a rational basis for your criticism. You of all people should be applauding Arizona for their aggressive increase in testing, which is what we need in actuality, and not more models, and not more cable news type opinions.

But hey, at least you got to mention that the Governor there is a Republican and imply that he must be brain dead.

I'll give you the point on the increase in testing skewing the positive results if that's the case, but how can the tripling of the death rate (over the two prior days) be a useless statistic? Remember, this virus has the ability to exponentially infect and therefore the ability to exponentially kill as well. Leave the politics out of it. Look at the death rate and the graph is climbing up a mountain. The last two recorded days on that graph have 30% more deaths than any other day recorded. This happened in the tri-state area as well and people on this very thread argued that it wasnt an urgent problem. I asked them to come back in two weeks and present that same argument. Guess what? In two weeks they didnt come back to argue because there was nothing to argue. Arizona could be in the same position if they arent careful. Florida is in the same boat. They opened up and are seeing an uptick as well.
 
I'll give you the point on the increase in testing skewing the positive results if that's the case, but how can the tripling of the death rate (over the two prior days) be a useless statistic? Remember, this virus has the ability to exponentially infect and therefore the ability to exponentially kill as well. Leave the politics out of it. Look at the death rate and the graph is climbing up a mountain. The last two recorded days on that graph have 30% more deaths than any other day recorded. This happened in the tri-state area as well and people on this very thread argued that it wasnt an urgent problem. I asked them to come back in two weeks and present that same argument. Guess what? In two weeks they didnt come back to argue because there was nothing to argue. Arizona could be in the same position if they arent careful. Florida is in the same boat. They opened up and are seeing an uptick as well.
I think you missed my post right above yours.
 
Not exactly.

Over the past three days, 88 new deaths have been reported, marking a significant increase from days prior. But many of those deaths may not have actually occurred this week. The number of new deaths reported each day represents the additional known deaths identified by the health department that day, but they are often not identified on the actual death date, and could have occurred weeks prior.

According to the department's data, the dates with the most deaths in a single day so far are April 19 and April 20, with 20 deaths each.


Arizona has significantly increased diagnostic testing over the past two weeks due to loosened testing requirements and the weekend blitz. The percentage of positive tests per week decreased from 11% three weeks ago to 7% last week, likely in part because a broader range of people are being tested rather than just the very sick.

+1
I mentioned this as well regarding FL. FL trends are all heading downwards. They announced 60 deaths yesterday, which would be high for a specific day, but daily death announcements are allocated back to the day a person actual died. Investigations can take some time to complete.
 
Sorry! Missed this the first time around. Aroha mai (Māori for "my bad").

To begin, I have never heard Jacinda referred to as "Jaz." Not sure where that came from. But I haven't met her, so maybe close friends call her that. (I've met each of the three previous PMs; it's a small country. Called them all by their first name. Moms Skillethead has had long chats with the previous two.) And second, that pic could not be further from an actual pic of Jacinda. This is what she looks like: https://time.com/collection/most-influential-people-2018/5217549/jacinda-ardern/ So, attractive, but not the babe in the pic.

We have several major natural advantages on this problem over countries like the US. First and foremost, we have a 2500 mile moat. Great for keeping people out.

Second, as a small island nation at the bottom of the world, we have a real national sense of "we have to take care of one another and this small place we call home." NZ is actually about the size of California, so not really that small, but certainly isolated.

Third, we have a parliamentary system of government. What the PM says, goes. She has the votes on most anything she wants to do. If the parliament rebels, we hold a new election.

Fourth, Kiwis are by and large incredibly nice people. We have our jerks like anybody else, but people say hi to one another on the street, help each other out, look out for folks who need help. I cannot tell you how many times we've been invited to dinner by people we've just met. Here's an example of Kiwiness: I was at a Home Depot like place that had a big garden section with plants. I was looking for a vine that would grow down over my dry stone wall. So I ask the guy who works in that area. He says, "Ah what you want is a hanging frimmitz (can't remember what they're called). They'll be great for your area." I say, "Super, do you guys sell them?" He says, "Sure, right over here." As we are walking to where they are he says, "Listen mate, you don't want to buy them here." I say, "I don't? Where should I buy them?" He says, "Nowhere. I've got a bunch of them at my place. I'll make you some cuttings and next week you come over and you can have them for free. Here's my address." And just today, my neighbor who runs his sheep and cattle on my land comes over with about a 20 pound bag of venison he's just butchered. Venison filet on the barbecue tonight.

Fifth, we live within our means. Thus, we don't have a large national debt and can afford a big wage subsidy plan to get us through this.

And sixth, people really do like Jacinda Ardern. She's a lovely person, incredibly smart, and seems to work around the clock. She says "I don't know" when she doesn't know, and "I'm sorry" when she makes a mistake. I actually liked our previous two PMs who were in the conservative party (called "National"). I didn't agree with many of their policies, but I knew that they had New Zealand's best interests at heart.

We've just moved from a very tight lockdown to a lesser one last week, and we will go to a near normal in about a week or so if everything goes right. I've actually enjoyed the lockdown, but then I've shown you guys a pic of where I live.

And, rugby is coming back! When it's back, I'll post a thread on it. If you have any chance to get it there, I can pretty much guarantee you'll like it if you like football (or "gridiron" as we refer to it here -- football is soccer, and "footy" is rugby -- "you watching the footy tonight?").

Hope this helps.

Skillet
Great post Skillet. Stay safe.

I'd also add seventh, an effective immigration policy.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SkilletHead2
Watched an interesting documentary last night. You know, one of those rare reporting stories where someone actually investigates and uses what they find to produce a credible (seemingly) journalistic piece. It was an eye opener on the suspicion of China's involvement and coverup with Covid-19. I said it early on, this virus is just too strange to be naturally occurring. This helps confirm my suspicions. Good supporting arguments of Covid-19 NOT jumping from animal to human, not originating in Wuhan, Chinese coverup, profiting from Remdesivir sales (a link to Chinese officials which opened my eyes even more), etc. It might not last long before it is taken down.

"The first documentary on the CCP virus. "Tracking Down the Origin of the Wuhan Coronavirus"
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: RU2055
I think you missed my post right above yours.

Your response posted as I was crafting mine. I will focus on "many of those deaths may not have occurred this week" and the deaths "could have occurred weeks prior". I find that odd. Are we saying Arizona's testing and reporting capabilities could be lagging by multiple weeks? That's just a concerning. Number one, it gives the government no accuracy in tracking the virus. And B, it gives the residents a false sense of how the virus is affecting their surroundings. If AZ, with a low number of cases, cannot adequately track and report their CV-19 deaths within a day or two, that seems inefficient and irresponsible.
 
Your response posted as I was crafting mine. I will focus on "many of those deaths may not have occurred this week" and the deaths "could have occurred weeks prior". I find that odd. Are we saying Arizona's testing and reporting capabilities could be lagging by multiple weeks? That's just a concerning. Number one, it gives the government no accuracy in tracking the virus. And B, it gives the residents a false sense of how the virus is affecting their surroundings. If AZ, with a low number of cases, cannot adequately track and report their CV-19 deaths within a day or two, that seems inefficient and irresponsible.
All states are like this. Investigations and confirming causes of death take a while. Mostly a few days, but sometimes longer.
 
All states are like this. Investigations and confirming causes of death take a while. Mostly a few days, but sometimes longer.

While I dont follow all or many of the states, NJ and NY both see a fall in numbers (+ cases and deaths) on their Monday reports, both caution the weekend reporting is typically slower, then both realize a big uptick on their Tuesday numbers. This doesn't seem to support that all states lag on their reporting of data and that NJ and NY appear to churn their numbers fairly quick.
 
While I dont follow all or many of the states, NJ and NY both see a fall in numbers (+ cases and deaths) on their Monday reports, both caution the weekend reporting is typically slower, then both realize a big uptick on their Tuesday numbers. This doesn't seem to support that all states lag on their reporting of data and that NJ and NY appear to churn their numbers fairly quick.
NYC's dashboard has a huge disclaimer that data for the few most recent days is incomplete. Data in all states have a similar lag. Numbers change a little bit very day.
 
Got to admit, my home state of NC's decision to begin "Phase One" of reopening today at 5 pm is (highly) questionable, given that it seems we're still heading upward in new cases, hospitalizations, deaths, etc. Seems way too pre-mature of a move, opening retail especially.

Thoughts on the case of NC? #s?
 
While I dont follow all or many of the states, NJ and NY both see a fall in numbers (+ cases and deaths) on their Monday reports, both caution the weekend reporting is typically slower, then both realize a big uptick on their Tuesday numbers. This doesn't seem to support that all states lag on their reporting of data and that NJ and NY appear to churn their numbers fairly quick.
Not exactly. There were a few time where both NY and NJ had huge spikes on a day and they said it was not from hospitals from the previous day but confirmation of suspected cases a week or two earlier.

In addition, there is not enough information to make an accurate data analysis. For example, the last 16 days NJ has had 3800 deaths. When you dig deeper you see that 70% of those were in LTCs so that should have little effect in analysis on opening back up. So an analysis is then needed as to the remaining 1200.

An intelligent decision requires a lot of detailed information, not just a simple daily death count. So Arizona has a max of 20 deaths a day and IF they were 70% in LTCs (hypothetical), then you are looking at a max of 6 deaths a day. I sure hope people making these decisions are more informed than us.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: ATIOH and T2Kplus10
Status
Not open for further replies.
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT