COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

[LETSGORU91]

Don't know if this was posted or not already but just saw on the news this morning and found a related article that frontline workers in NY(healthcare, transit, first responders) tested for antibodies at about the same rate or less than the general population. Might think they might have a higher infection rate but looks to be about the same....proper protection and hygiene work.

From the article:

Cuomo said 27,000 healthcare workers across 25 downstate facilities were tested for antibodies.

In New York City, 20% of the general public had antibodies, compared to about 12% of healthcare workers.

In Westchester, near the state’s first coronavirus outbreak, nearly 14% of the general public had antibodies, while just about 7% of healthcare workers had them.

Nearby Long Island tested at roughly the same rate: 11.4% of the general public tested for antibodies while healthcare workers were at 11.1%.

Cuomo said the results suggest that healthcare workers must have protective equipment, like masks, gloves and gowns⁠—and that along with hand sanitizer, proves effective against preventing the virus’ spread.

“We were afraid of what was going to happen” to healthcare workers, Cuomo said, adding that the numbers show healthcare workers are following the protective equipment protocols and therefore getting infected at lower rates.

“Those masks work,” Cuomo said. “If they’re working for front line workers, they’re going to work for people in their day to day lives.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisett...9-compared-to-public-cuomo-says/#48f1d3be6619

It's a basic principle of healthcare, personal protective equipment provides barriers which help reduce the incidence of transmission. How the higher ups failed to endorse this simple concept for two months and encourage the public to wear masks is bewildering.

 

[RU4Real]

It's a basic principle of healthcare, personal protective equipment provides barriers which help reduce the incidence of transmission. How the higher ups failed to endorse this simple concept for two months and encourage the public to wear masks is bewildering.

The administration should be held criminally accountable for that. They were lying, they knew they were lying, and it cost lives.

 

[wisr01]

The administration should be held criminally accountable for that. They were lying, they knew they were lying, and it cost lives.

Sad to see how easily they lied to us and it cost people their lives. Instead, they could have provided instructions on how to make homemade masks and how to properly use and clean them. That is what a govt that was actually "for the people" would have done.

 

[RU-05]

This is disappointing...we had a domestic manufacturer capable of making an additional 1.7MM N95 masks per week and they were never used by the Administration until April. And here's the worst part: "In the end, the government did not take Bowen up on his offer. Even today, production lines that could be making more than 7 million masks a month sit dormant."

It was Jan. 22, a day after the first case of covid-19 was detected in the United States, and orders were pouring into Michael Bowen’s company outside Fort Worth, some from as far away as Hong Kong.

Bowen’s medical supply company, Prestige Ameritech, could ramp up production to make an additional 1.7 million N95 masks a week. He viewed the shrinking domestic production of medical masks as a national security issue, though, and he wanted to give the federal government first dibs.

“We still have four like-new N95 manufacturing lines,” Bowen wrote that day in an email to top administrators in the Department of Health and Human Services. “Reactivating these machines would be very difficult and very expensive but could be achieved in a dire situation.”

But communications over several days with senior agency officials — including Robert Kadlec, the assistant secretary for preparedness and emergency response — left Bowen with the clear impression that there was little immediate interest in his offer.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/inve...y.html?utm_source=reddit.com#comments-wrapper

Given the demand why did Bowen need the President or his administration to give the go ahead?

Just make them and sell them.

 

[RU-05]

Why should they make 1.7 mil masks/week when Fauci doesn't think they are warranted to prevent transmission? Such illogical thinking I want to put my fist through the wall.

Did this happen?

 

[RU-05]

Summary:

I'm officially confused now, as the epidemiologists are now all over the map on future transmissions and deaths, with regard to how far do we have to go to reach herd immunity, which has a huge impact on total infections, hospitalizations and, obviously deaths, with models now ranging from herd immunity (where the outbreak fizzles/stops on its own) being anywhere from 10-20% to 40% to 60-70%, when most were saying 50-80% for quite awhile. Some previous posts discussing the details below are linked below from the Wharton Model, IHME and my own thoughts, plus the JHU comment is above, (partly to put them in one place for my own sanity, lol).

This plus some other variables would probably put the range of US deaths anywhere from 150K to >1MM. These are the ranges of deaths (and infections) we'd reach very slowly (18 months?) with aggressive interventions in densely populated areas or in very sparsely populated areas without interventions or much more quickly (6 months?) in densely populated areas without interventions. All of these models/calcs assume no cure/vaccine (i.e., generally current deaths per infection, which could obviously greatly reduce deaths.

While it would be fantastic to have herd immunity be at a much lower infection level, hugely cutting potential deaths, this kind of disagreement and uncertainty make decision-making on a path forward even harder than it has been. Personally, I'd be inclined to still want to follow the South Korea plan, like the NE US/West Coast are, i.e., aggressive testing, tracing, and isolating with continued mask-wearing and social distancing in order to contain flare-ups while we phase in reopening our economy and life, just in case the assumptions/models suggesting much lower herd immunity levels are possible are wrong - at least until we have a bona fide treatment/functional cure (by late summer with antibodies?) or vaccine.

Details:

• We have the Wharton estimates from about a week ago of 950K eventually (over the next 12-18 months) dead in the US if we open back up and significantly relax social distancing (details/links in the 3rd post below); they also have scenarios with anywhere from 116K-950K total US deaths depending on how much we loosen controls and open things up and how effective our social distancing is. This was the article that also compared health impacts and economic impacts, including unemployment levels for the various model runs/assumptions.
• We also have the latest IHME/U of Washington model, which was significantly revised on 5/4 to reflect much slower declines in deaths in hotspot locations and to reflect predicted increases in deaths in areas opening up and reducing social distancing, with their prediction of US deaths from this "first wave" going from 72K by the end of May to 134K by the end of July. They have not predicted overall US deaths for the entire pandemic; details/links in the 2nd post below.
• The post above (including links) from Johns Hopkins predicts we'll see >500K US deaths over the next 18 months as we steadily reach ~70% infected (herd immunity). This "academic comment" came out today, possibly in response to the two preprints discussed below, each of which argues that herd immunity levels could be far below 70% (10-40% even). This and the Wharton model were in general agreement with what I've been thinking (~1MM deaths in the US being very possible, overall), as per the first post below.
• We now have a preprint of a paper from Britton et al (Swedish) predicting that the actual herd immunity level where the outbreak fizzles/stops could be as low as 43% of the population infected, instead of the "classical" herd immunity number of 60-70% of the population infected. They're assuming the population is not "homogeneously mixed" and if the very social superspreaders all get it early (which they think should happen), then transmission rates will slow down and fizzle out at a much lower herd immunity level of about 43%.
  • https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.03085.pdf
  • "Standard," epidemiology models say that if the R0 is 2.2, herd immunity is achieved at 54% of the population infected, while if the R0 is 5.7 (as some have postulated), herd immunity would require 82% of the population being infected. Huge difference, obviously.
  • https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
    
  • For an area like NYC with 20-25% infected, as per antibody testing, this would mean there isn't nearly as far to go to reach herd immunity; for most of the rest of the US and the world, outside of the worst hotspots, estimates are more like 2-5% infected so far.
  • A big problem I have with this paper is that right in the beginning they cite the Swedish estimate that 26% of Stockholm would be infected by 5/1, but we now know that Stockholm only has 11% infected (at most), as per antibody testing of blood donors and the paper saying 26% would be infected was retracted. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidn...ontroversial-coronavirus-report/#2b1b7c484349
  • In the big picture if herd immunity is really around 43% vs. 60-70%, that would likely reduce overall deaths by at least 1/3 to maybe 1/2, depending on the percentage already infected.
• We also now have a preprint of another paper from Gomes et al from a few days ago (tweeted about by Dr. Scott Gottleib, former FDA Commissioner), proposing that herd immunity could also be significantly reduced, but by the mechanism of "variable susceptability" of infection, proposing that there is a range of susceptibility to getting the virus.
  • https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v1.full.pdf
    
  • In this paper, they speculate that the herd immunity endpoint could be reduced from the standard 60-70% of the population infected to a wide range of numbers, even as low as 10%. Given that NYC is already at or above 20%, obviously their low end of the range looks flawed, which makes me wonder about the applicability of their methodology.
  • Here is an excerpt: Individuals that are frailer, and therefore more susceptible or more exposed, have higher probabilities of being infected, depleting the susceptible subpopulation of those who are at higher risk of infection, and thus intensifying the deceleration in occurrence of new cases. Eventually, susceptible numbers become low enough to prevent epidemic growth or, in other words, herd immunity is attained. Although estimates vary, it is currently believed that herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 requires 60-70% of the population to be immune. Here we show that variation in susceptibility or exposure to infection can reduce these estimates. Achieving accurate estimates of heterogeneity for SARS-CoV-2 is therefore of paramount importance in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.
    
  • Clearly, though, if herd immunity were something more possible, like 30-40%, total deaths in hotspot places like NYC/NENJ and parts of Europe might end up not being more than double what they are now, in the worst case and maybe less than that.

I've been over the models for a month now. Follow the data.

 

[LETSGORU91]

Did this happen?

For two months, screwed the pooch by not recommending masks, and at the very least, some sort of face covering.... to the entire nation.

 

[RU-05]

It's a basic principle of healthcare, personal protective equipment provides barriers which help reduce the incidence of transmission. How the higher ups failed to endorse this simple concept for two months and encourage the public to wear masks is bewildering.

The administration should be held criminally accountable for that. They were lying, they knew they were lying, and it cost lives.

Sad to see how easily they lied to us and it cost people their lives. Instead, they could have provided instructions on how to make homemade masks and how to properly use and clean them. That is what a govt that was actually "for the people" would have done.

My after the fact take on their handling of the early stages of this in regards to masks is they did not want the public to hoard the masks and thus they would not be available to the medical professionals.

But as wisr says, why not push the home made masks angle from the get go? From what I have seen one heck of a cottage industry has spawned from this. Would people still have hoarded the N-95 in the early stages? Maybe.

The higher ups still do not seem to be putting much importance on mask wearing though, and from what my mother says, north of Tampa, mask wearing is now passe.

 

[RU-05]

For two months, screwed the pooch by not recommending masks, and at the very least, some sort of face covering.... to the entire nation.

Responded to this above. I wonder if there was not an ulterior motive, ie, wanting the supply that was out there to be directed to the medical workers.

 

[rutgersguy1]

My after the fact take on their handling of the early stages of this in regards to masks is they did not want the public to hoard the masks and thus they would not be available to the medical professionals.

But as wisr says, why not push the home made masks angle from the get go? From what I have seen one heck of a cottage industry has spawned from this. Would people still have hoarded the N-95 in the early stages? Maybe.

The higher ups still do not seem to be putting much importance on mask wearing though, and from what my mother says, north of Tampa, mask wearing is now passe.

I think wanting to make sure the N95s were heading towards the frontline workers was part of it for sure. But I also don't think they were thinking of it in the correct way at first either. Neither was I but I'm not an expert.

I think most of them were thinking about masks like all of us naturally do, that it's used for the person wearing the mask protection. In that respect, with your eyes still being exposed and the filtering properties of various masks being different it's true that maybe it's not the most effective.....but any protection is still better than none just like they say with the yearly flu shot even when not an accurate match for the upcoming seasonal strain.

Initially, I don't think they were thinking about it in terms of "herd protection" that if everyone wears one then people will be keeping most of their germs to themselves and in their immediate vicinity so less opportunity for spreading. I think that realization came later.

Even now I wonder what percentage of the general population realizes the biggest benefit of mask wearing is the "herd protection" it can offer vs. protection of oneself from the outside.

 

[RU-05]

The mask question, is much like the LTC question in NYC and NJ.

Here you have the big beautiful boat, you have the Javits, you have field hospitals in the park, yet they are jamming all these Covid positive 85 year olds into nursing homes?

I feel the masks and the ltc facilities are 2 of the most critical aspects of this, and yet we have handled them both pretty poorly.

Given that Fauci Birx and Cuomo seem to be the voices of reason on the handling of the virus, I just wonder what the thinking is behind these decisions.

 

[RUJohnny]

Murphy said that testing had to double as one of his requirements to reopen. That was said about 10 days ago. According to 91-Divoc, we have actually been testing less the last few days that we did two weeks ago. How can that be?
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

 

[RU-05]

I think wanting to make sure the N95s were heading towards the frontline workers was part of it for sure. But I also don't think they were thinking of it in the correct way at first either. Neither was I but I'm not an expert.

I think most of them were thinking about masks like all of us naturally do, that it's used for the person wearing the mask protection. In that respect, with your eyes still being exposed and the filtering properties of various masks being different it's true that maybe it's not the most effective.....but any protection is still better than none just like they say with the yearly flu shot even when not an accurate match for the upcoming seasonal strain.

Initially, I don't think they were thinking about it in terms of "herd protection" that if everyone wears one then people will be keeping most of their germs to themselves and in their immediate vicinity so less opportunity for spreading. I think that realization came later.

Even now I wonder what percentage of the general population realizes the biggest benefit of mask wearing is the "herd protection" it can offer vs. protection of oneself from the outside.

I'm like you, no expert, and I could have pleaded ignorance on this line of thinking, but Fauci and Birx? They should have been way ahead in their thinking. I can't even accept that they weren't aware of this.

 

[RU4Real]

I'm like you, no expert, and I could have pleaded ignorance on this line of thinking, but Fauci and Birx? They should have been way ahead in their thinking. I can't even accept that they weren't aware of this.

Any PPE > No PPE.

They didn't want a panic. This is 100% on Trump and his people. The internal rationalization was that if the administration came out, early, and told everyone to wear masks while Trump was still appearing on Fox telling people that we had 15 cases and then it would go to zero and that the virus would suddenly go away, like a miracle, the broad realization that he was full of shit would hit hard.

 

[RU-05]

So SK reported 34 new cases in their last report. This followed days of 12 and 18 new cases.

I don't think it warrants the term "spike" but it is a rise in cases given they were in single digits for like 3 or 4 days prior.

Because of this rise in cases they shut back down bars and night clubs(or something, don't know the exact details). On the one hand you have to commend their vigilance. On the other hand, if this is their plan of attack, by the time they are totally in the clear on Covid19, the next pandemic will be ready to sweep through.

 

[rutgersguy1]

I'm like you, no expert, and I could have pleaded ignorance on this line of thinking, but Fauci and Birx? They should have been way ahead in their thinking. I can't even accept that they weren't aware of this.

I don't know about this field so not sure how much depth of practical knowledge experts would have but it's not like anyone has dealt with a pandemic in their lifetimes to know exactly how to react and what to do right at the outset. On some level there is you learn as you go even for the experts.

Even in the countries in Asia where there have been higher percentages and acceptance of mask wearing as the norm.....all this time before this pandemic were people wearing it or being told to wear them for "herd protection" or just wearing them for their own protection.

 

[RU-05]

Any PPE > No PPE.

They didn't want a panic. This is 100% on Trump and his people. The internal rationalization was that if the administration came out, early, and told everyone to wear masks while Trump was still appearing on Fox telling people that we had 15 cases and then it would go to zero and that the virus would suddenly go away, like a miracle, the broad realization that he was full of shit would hit hard.

Given his, and others of his administrations reluctance to wear masks, this does make sense.

But Fauci has stepped outside the lines that Trump has drawn before. Would he have bit his tongue in this instance? On a matter of such importance?

 

[RU-05]

I don't know about this field so not sure how much depth of practical knowledge experts would have but it's not like anyone has dealt with a pandemic in their lifetimes to know exactly how to react and what to do right at the outset. On some level there is you learn as you go even for the experts.

Even in the countries in Asia where there have been higher percentages and acceptance of mask wearing as the norm.....all this time before this pandemic were people wearing it or being told to wear them for "herd protection" or just wearing them for their own protection.

Fauci specializes in infectious diseases, I just can't give him a pass on ignorance.

I just can't believe that is possible.

 

[RU-05]

In case this pandemic isn't depressing enough, a paper today in Nature (a top journal) discusses various coronaviruses in pangolins, one of the most heavily trafficked mammals in Asia/China and one suspected to possibly be the intermediate host between bats and humans for SARS-CoV-2 (the current coronavirus). They've found viruses that are almost identical to CV2 in the critical receptor binding domain of the spike protein, which is the part of the virus which attaches to host cells. These wet markets really need to be shut down.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2313-x_reference.pdf

In particular, the receptor-binding domain within the S protein of the Pangolin-CoV is virtually identical to that of SARS-CoV-2, with one noncritical amino acid diference. Results of comparative genomic analysis suggest that SARS-CoV-2 might have originated from the recombination of a Pangolin-CoV-like virus with a Bat-CoV-RaTG13-like virus. The Pangolin-CoV was detected in 17 of 25 Malayan pangolins analyzed. Infected pangolins showed clinical signs and histological changes, and circulating antibodies against Pangolin-CoV reacted with the S protein of SARS-CoV-2. The isolation of a coronavirus that is highly related to SARS-CoV-2 in pangolins suggests that they have the potential to act as the intermediate host of SARS-CoV-2. The newly identifed coronavirus in the most-trafcked mammal could represent a future threat to public health if wildlife trade is not efectively controlled.

So my first thought is we should be proactive and round up these critters and get a vaccine going before it causes the next pandemic......

The 2nd thought is pretty obvious.

 

[LETSGORU91]

I'm like you, no expert, and I could have pleaded ignorance on this line of thinking, but Fauci and Birx? They should have been way ahead in their thinking. I can't even accept that they weren't aware of this.

It was pretty evident they sharted the bed on this by most in the medical community.

Any PPE > No PPE.

They didn't want a panic. This is 100% on Trump and his people. The internal rationalization was that if the administration came out, early, and told everyone to wear masks while Trump was still appearing on Fox telling people that we had 15 cases and then it would go to zero and that the virus would suddenly go away, like a miracle, the broad realization that he was full of shit would hit hard.

It was very evident early on the virulence of this disease was way above anything we've ever seen...even before it hit our shores. The fact they missed the boat amazes me ..unfortunately in a bad kind of way.

I don't know about this field so not sure how much depth of practical knowledge experts would have but it's not like anyone has dealt with a pandemic in their lifetimes to know exactly how to react and what to do right at the outset. On some level there is you learn as you go even for the experts.

Even in the countries in Asia where there have been higher percentages and acceptance of mask wearing as the norm.....all this time before this pandemic were people wearing it or being told to wear them for "herd protection" or just wearing them for their own protection.

Based on what we saw from China, our hospital had a task force weeks in advance of hitting our area to help prepare for the worst, if it got that bad. As for me, I generally social distance if someone has a cold or the flu and encourage my wife and kids to do the same. It's basic, such a simple concept to apply and is effective in transmission reduction. As I was privy to this virus and the veracity of it, I did my best in the hospital to social distance from anyone I could as I saw the writing on the wall. My point being is there was a large NNJ hospital and a medical professional like myself who could see the tidal wave arriving. It was kind of easy to realize this could be bad...we couldn't have been the only ones to have some foresight. How the highest authorities didnt realize this and couldn't fight their way out of a paper bag for the first two months was embarrassing in my opinion.

 

[RU-05]

How the highest authorities didnt realize this and couldn't fight their way out of a paper bag for the first two months was embarrassing in my opinion.

I agree that it is hard to figure, but I have to believe that there was some underlying reasoning that made them not recommend the obvious.

Fauci being ignorant of the importance of masks in helping stop the spread is just very difficult to accept.

 

[e5fdny]

Given the demand why did Bowen need the President or his administration to give the go ahead?

Just make them and sell them.

+1

It’s that simple.

 

[wisr01]

It was pretty evident they sharted the bed on this by most in the medical community.



It was very evident early on the virulence of this disease was way above anything we've ever seen...even before it hit our shores. The fact they missed the boat amazes me ..unfortunately in a bad kind of way.



Based on what we saw from China, our hospital had a task force weeks in advance of hitting our area to help prepare for the worst, if it got that bad. As for me, I generally social distance if someone has a cold or the flu and encourage my wife and kids to do the same. It's basic, such a simple concept to apply and is effective in transmission reduction. As I was privy to this virus and the veracity of it, I did my best in the hospital to social distance from anyone I could as I saw the writing on the wall. My point being is there was a large NNJ hospital and a medical professional like myself who could see the tidal wave arriving. It was kind of easy to realize this could be bad...we couldn't have been the only ones to have some foresight. How the highest authorities didnt realize this and couldn't fight their way out of a paper bag for the first two months was embarrassing in my opinion.

As always, excellent post. I hope you don't mind that you got a nice chuckle out of me with the "sharted" comment. Sounds like something I would say even on such a somber subject.

 

[Ridge 22]

+1

It’s that simple.

From the write-up, it sounds like there were very significant costs associated with re-activating the old and dormant production lines. I assume that would have required some sort of government funding.

 

[rutgersguy1]

It was pretty evident they sharted the bed on this by most in the medical community.



It was very evident early on the virulence of this disease was way above anything we've ever seen...even before it hit our shores. The fact they missed the boat amazes me ..unfortunately in a bad kind of way.



Based on what we saw from China, our hospital had a task force weeks in advance of hitting our area to help prepare for the worst, if it got that bad. As for me, I generally social distance if someone has a cold or the flu and encourage my wife and kids to do the same. It's basic, such a simple concept to apply and is effective in transmission reduction. As I was privy to this virus and the veracity of it, I did my best in the hospital to social distance from anyone I could as I saw the writing on the wall. My point being is there was a large NNJ hospital and a medical professional like myself who could see the tidal wave arriving. It was kind of easy to realize this could be bad...we couldn't have been the only ones to have some foresight. How the highest authorities didnt realize this and couldn't fight their way out of a paper bag for the first two months was embarrassing in my opinion.

Oh I agree about it arriving here and once it hit Italy for sure it was on its way. I also social distance (although never called it that and never heard of it before this) from sick friends and family to the degree I can before this ever happened. I've become a germphobe over the past decade caring for elderly relatives (one who has passed) as I don't want to pass sickness onto them.

My point is generally about the specific thinking on masks. I'm not sure how widely held the belief was of the practice as being useful for "herd protection" vs "personal protection" before this pandemic. Even in Asia where it can be a norm in some countries before the pandemic...were people thinking of it as herd protection or just personal protection. When you haven't seen something of this scale before it's hard to be perfect in every aspect without the practical experience behind it. Not saying there weren't other things that could have been done and should have been done but just specific to the thinking on mask wearing and the mentality of "herd protection" vs "personal protection" is my point.

 

[RU-05]

Oh I agree about it arriving here and once it hit Italy for sure it was on its way. I also social distance (although never called it that and never heard of it before this) from sick friends and family to the degree I can before this ever happened. I've become a germphobe over the past decade caring for elderly relatives (one who has passed) as I don't want to pass sickness onto them.

My point is generally about the specific thinking on masks. I'm not sure how widely held the belief was of the practice as being useful for "herd protection" vs "personal protection" before this pandemic. Even in Asia where it can be a norm in some countries before the pandemic...were people thinking of it as herd protection or just personal protection. When you haven't seen something of this scale before it's hard to be perfect in every aspect without the practical experience behind it. Not saying there weren't other things that could have been done and should have been done but just specific to the thinking on mask wearing and the mentality of "herd protection" vs "personal protection" is my point.

I'm pretty sure the Asians have been wearing masks for a while when they themselves have some sort of cold.

 

[RU4Real]

+1

It’s that simple.

It's not that simple.

If you read the story, you'll learn that the N95 production lines in question were old and disused. Restarting them would have required "considerable investment", which any business would commit to only after becoming satisfied that there's sufficient revenue to support the investment. Bowen obviously sought to de-risk the investment by going to the federal government and offering to remediate the production equipment and restart the lines if they assured him that there would be a contract.

Sure, you could make the argument that if he just regenerated capacity on spec that it would have paid off. But it's extremely likely that he simply didn't have the capital with which to do so.

 

[RU-05]

Just thinking aloud here, but as the % of the population with antibodies increases the spread rate would then decrease correct?

Herd immunity might not come into effect until 70%, but I would think 50% or even 30% antibodies would slow things down.

 

[rutgersguy1]

I'm pretty sure the Asians have been wearing masks for a while when they themselves have some sort of cold.

Maybe but I’m southeast Asian heritage not sure I’ve seen much of that vs people mostly wearing to protect themselves from others’ germs.

My main point is that it’s not the intuitive thinking that when you wear a mask you’re protecting others vs protecting yourself. So not having dealt with a pandemic in a lifetime I wonder how prevalent that counterintuitive thinking would be even among experts until they’re actually in the thick of it.

 

[e5fdny]

But the article in the Washington Post does say there was demand...

It was Jan. 22, a day after the first case of covid-19 was detected in the United States, and orders were pouring into Michael Bowen’s company outside Fort Worth, some from as far away as Hong Kong.

Bowen’s medical supply company, Prestige Ameritech, could ramp up production to make an additional 1.7 million N95 masks a week.

Whatever he made, someone was going buy. Whether it was here or there they were going to move.

 

[bac2therac]

Any PPE > No PPE.

They didn't want a panic. This is 100% on Trump and his people. The internal rationalization was that if the administration came out, early, and told everyone to wear masks while Trump was still appearing on Fox telling people that we had 15 cases and then it would go to zero and that the virus would suddenly go away, like a miracle, the broad realization that he was full of shit would hit hard.

bullcrap..you have no proof of that...you also had the WHO actually saying masks were not needed...all of them said, stop blaming that on Trump, he isnt the infectious disease expert.

the fact is Trump shut the economy down totally and told people to stay at home...that in itself is way beyond telling people to wear masks

 

[DanRU]

So SK reported 34 new cases in their last report. This followed days of 12 and 18 new cases.

I don't think it warrants the term "spike" but it is a rise in cases given they were in single digits for like 3 or 4 days prior.

Because of this rise in cases they shut back down bars and night clubs(or something, don't know the exact details). On the one hand you have to commend their vigilance. On the other hand, if this is their plan of attack, by the time they are totally in the clear on Covid19, the next pandemic will be ready to sweep through.

From what I've read, Florida is doing a very slow re-opening. Bars/night clubs aren't open and It's hard to see them opening around NY/NJ any time soon. I do think the fact that most people have no problem with the mask wearing in public and the 6 foot rule that re-opening parts of NJ won't cause a mass contamination like when it first hit and nobody was taking any precautions. I drive to work but wonder how many people are going to jump back into NJ Transit trains and buses. I couldn't imagine getting on a subway at rush hour.

 

[RU-05]

But the article in the Washington Post does say there was demand...

It was Jan. 22, a day after the first case of covid-19 was detected in the United States, and orders were pouring into Michael Bowen’s company outside Fort Worth, some from as far away as Hong Kong.

Bowen’s medical supply company, Prestige Ameritech, could ramp up production to make an additional 1.7 million N95 masks a week.

Whatever he made, someone was going buy. Whether it was here or there they were going to move.

We shouldn't need an article to know there is and has been huge demand for N95 masks.

Now we can get into the muddy waters of gov't $$$, and if they are dishing out all this cash, why not throw some money at a company so they can fire up their N95 mask making machines?

But end of the day, sounded like that company could have done this without government funds, and done very well from a business perspective with it.

 

[e5fdny]

We shouldn't need an article to know there is and has been huge demand for N95 masks.

Now we can get into the muddy waters of gov't $$$, and if they are dishing out all this cash, why not throw some money at a company so they can fire up their N95 mask making machines?

But end of the day, sounded like that company could have done this without government funds, and done very well from a business perspective with it.

But than the Washington Post has one less “blame game” article....it’s gotta be someone’s fault!

 

[RU-05]

My main point is that it’s not the intuitive thinking that when you wear a mask you’re protecting others vs protecting yourself. So not having dealt with a pandemic in a lifetime I wonder how prevalent that counterintuitive thinking would be even among experts until they’re actually in the thick of it.

I know we are going back and forth on this, but infectious disease experts should have been well aware of the importance of masks in keeping one person who is infected from spreading it around.

I just can't fathom that they are only now learning this.

 

[e5fdny]

Maybe but I’m southeast Asian heritage not sure I’ve seen much of that vs people mostly wearing to protect themselves from others’ germs.

My main point is that it’s not the intuitive thinking that when you wear a mask you’re protecting others vs protecting yourself. So not having dealt with a pandemic in a lifetime I wonder how prevalent that counterintuitive thinking would be even among experts until they’re actually in the thick of it.

I always assumed that it also had something to do with air quality issues over there.

 

[rutgersguy1]

I know we are going back and forth on this, but infectious disease experts should have been well aware of the importance of masks in keeping one person who is infected from spreading it around.

I just can't fathom that they are only now learning this.

I missed that you said this about the sick. I’m pretty sure they did recommend that sick people with symptoms should wear a mask.

Problem was that this new virus threw a wrench in those guidelines because there were a lot of asymptomatic “sick” people out there who were still contagious unlike other viruses. I don’t think they realized just how many until later. That’s what I mean that it’s hard to be perfect in every aspect until you’re in the thick of it. Also don’t know that experts at first were even thinking of cloth masks as being used vs only surgical or better hence the incorporation of calling them face coverings so as to prevent hoarding etc.

Regardless of this debate, I still can’t believe we have so many against it. It’s such a small minor thing for most. Again I think part of it is because many don’t realize it’s for community/herd protection not just themselves alone. I think some think is “it’s my life my risk to take let me do what I want” and don’t realize it’s actually meant more for others around you.

 

[RU-05]

But than the Washington Post has one less “blame game” article....it’s gotta be someone’s fault!

Well, and I'm going to flip flop here, but while the company surely could have done this on their own and made money, it probably would have been a good thing if the fed's said, hey we need this, so you will make them.

Now Trump has seemingly taken a hands off approach. Instead letting the free market step up, and letting state governments take the lead. Offering guidance but not taking charge. He's received some praise for this, not taking the opportunity to interject more federal powers, but what has been the cost?

 

[rutgersguy1]

I always assumed that it also had something to do with air quality issues over there.

That’s part of it too.

 

[RU-05]

I missed that you said this about the sick. I’m pretty sure they did recommend that sick people with symptoms should wear a mask.

Problem was that this new virus threw a wrench in those guidelines because there were a lot of asymptomatic “sick” people out there who were still contagious unlike other viruses. I don’t think that was realized jus how many until later. That’s what I mean that it’s hard to be perfect in every aspect until you’re in the thick of it. Also don’t know that experts at first were even thinking of cloth masks as being used vs only surgical or better hence the incorporation of calling them face coverings so as to prevent hoarding etc.

Regardless of this debate, I still can’t believe we have so many against it. It’s such a small minor thing for most. Again I think part of it is because many don’t realize it’s for community/herd protection not just themselves alone. I think some think is “it’s my life my risk to take let me do what I want” and don’t realize it’s actually meant more for others around you.

I agree the awareness in regards to the level of asymptomatic infected did come later, but not that much later.

I also agree that you can't expect perfection, and even in this case I think there had to be other legit reasons as to why they were not recommending masks for the general public. The obvious one being they wanted the masks that were available to go to health care workers. So I'm trying to figure the rational more then I am criticizing.

In many points along the way, it would be nice to know, what people knew, and what their reasoning's were for some of their decisions.