All you need is beer. Just had some pizza with dough made using a beer.
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COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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Good find. He's been reading my posts, too, lol. He went from 500K potential deaths in the UK to 20K. 20K in the UK would roughly translate to 100K in the US, purely based on population 325MM in US vs. 66K in the UK), assuming the same death rate. My scenario guess above (and the past few days) if we do little intervention was 85K deaths/340K serious hospitalizations in the US, which is why we absolutely still need intervention (vs. 35K deaths from the flu), but I've never been on board with ~2MM deaths in the US (although early on we all had to recognize that was possible).
https://www.newscientist.com/articl...e-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/
Cytokine-storm type result, severe inflammation in the lungs if I recall correctly. This does appear to occur in at least some cases of covid.
Not sure I get what you're asking - did you mean to say "could covid-19 have resulted from an effort..."? If that's what you meant, I doubt it. BUT...I wouldn't rule out the possibility that it's an escaped lab virus that was being used to develop vaccines for SARS-type coronaviruses. But even if it is, that really doesn't matter at this point unless someone somewhere has a treatment or vaccine they're going to hold the world hostage for. We have to deal with it the same regardless of the original source.
If we did absolutely no interventions the 2mm deaths scenario was definitely on the table. But it all depends on the IFR which we really don't know. The data from the DP suggests the IFR is at least 1.4% and it will go up as some of those still critical people won't make it. So using a 1.4% IFR and say 40% population impact (remember, this is a no control scenario and this spreads very easily) you get about 2 million. And in that scenario the death rate would probably be higher because the health care system would be absolutely swamped. Now you can claim that the DP was an older population and the death rate is "only" 1.4%, but keep in mind that those people were infected relatively early in the pandemic and all had access to good health care in a non-swamped hospital system.
No one will ever be able to prove whether the 2 million (or more) deaths was a possible outcome, unless it actually happens, because we did institute significant social distancing measures.
I could be wrong but wasn't his original prediction just based on the idea that nobody would try to prevent the spread, and just went on like it didnt exist?
Either way its not a very good look to adjust his guess by about 480k.
Yes and those are reasonable worst case projections early on with lack of data; even H1N1, which had circulated in a similar form earlier, infected about 20% of the world from what I recall, so 50% or more for a virus completely new to the planet wasn't out of bounds. However, with even modest interventions I think we'd keep it well under 20% and if you look right now with much stronger interventions, no countries on Earth have yet even reached 0.2% infection rate overall (Italy is the highest with 0.12%, although NYC is at 0.3% and climbing, which is why I used 5% as my worst case), which is at least somewhat reassuring - as well as the Asian countries keeping the rate below 0.05% of the population with significant interventions.
Well, they were talking about just letting it run its course and letting herd immunity be the control...
Given the high variability in testing, results and reporting, one needs several days before declaring a trend. You're too used to having better data, lol. And the case rate will continue to accelerate quickly in the US if we keep testing, like we should.
However, the good news is that it appears as if the new case rate in NY is decelerating a bit, as the graph Cuomo showed had about 4-5K new cases per day for the past 3-4 days and 6K new cases yesterday. The new cases are increasing each day, but nowhere near exponentially. I would expect the new case rate to level off soon (in 3-5 days?) at some constant for maybe a week or so and then decline, as I believe the interventions are working to some extent to flatten the curve. I hope I'm right.
Yes they were, which would've been the dumbest thing ever - kind of like the idea of opening the US back up on Easter.
People tend to be pack animals. Masks are considered eccentric/ugly so people shun them. Soon though that will change and people will be wearing them and stylizing them like they do abroad. Then the pack will be looking at you funny for sneezing in public and not wearing a mask.
interesting article by nypost
https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/iceland-scientists-found-40-mutations-of-the-coronavirus-report-says/
says that iceland has seen 40 mutations.
post is post so i clicked on the underlying article but it is in icelandic and i read the google translated version.
it says that more mutations probably means more contagious but less impact. not sure why. do the mutated variants lose potency?
here is a question though. i thought we didn't have a cure for the common cold/flu because it mutates too quickly. if cv19 is mutating this fast, don't know how we are going to develop a vaccine.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/iceland-scientists-found-40-mutations-of-the-coronavirus-report-says/
says that iceland has seen 40 mutations.
post is post so i clicked on the underlying article but it is in icelandic and i read the google translated version.
it says that more mutations probably means more contagious but less impact. not sure why. do the mutated variants lose potency?
here is a question though. i thought we didn't have a cure for the common cold/flu because it mutates too quickly. if cv19 is mutating this fast, don't know how we are going to develop a vaccine.
You know...I'm hoping that they are just "thinking" out loud on that. Certainly there need to be plans being developed for how and when the restrictions will start being lifted (Cuomo talked about that a bit today) and it might be good for people to be aware of that. Perhaps that will encourage people to really tough it out for the next few week as they get increasingly tired of being told not to go out.
The biggest mistake will be if restriction start being lifted at some magical pre-determined expiration date (like Easter) if the data don't support that. I suspect in the major hotspots like NYC the epidemic first wave will be at a peak around easter so it won't be time to ease up yet. Maybe some of the rural areas with lower case rates could start thinking about it. Will all depend on how the hospital system holds up. You don't want to ease up before the hospitals recover.
He mever said it would be country wide.. Its pretty obvious that trump will allow states to make decisions and some states will almost certainly continue current restrictions
Seems like they are working on some sort of guidelines for states...plus i would think even states that open will still be practicing variations of social distancing
Seems like they are working on some sort of guidelines for states...plus i would think even states that open will still be practicing variations of social distancing
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"We know who is who! Now there isn’t a doubt. The very best Sneetches are Sneetches without.”
Most virology experts are saying there hasn't been "meaningful" mutation and that a single vaccine would likely work and not need to be redone every year, as it is for the flu, a very different virus.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...6522d6-6dfd-11ea-b148-e4ce3fbd85b5_story.html
Today (Thursday), the state is reporting a total of 19,364 tests completed, for an increase of about 5000 tests since yesterday. The total of 19K tests means NJ has performed about 210 tests per 100,000 people. That is less than half New York's 532 tests per 100K, and less than a third of South Korea's 676 tests per 100K. If NJ keeps up the 5000 tests per day rate, it will take us about 9 days to reach South Korea's testing rate (of course SK will have tested more by then).
Currently 12 states are testing at a higher per capita rate than NJ.
The percent positive tests has increased from 29% to 31.7%, further indicating there is pent up need for testing in NJ.
A) no - it almost certainly needs to be antibodies against some similar part of another coronavirus. Flu is a completely different virus and a vaccine against flu has zero to do with this virus. Antibodies work by fitting together with the virus - they work like a lock and key. So the key (the antibody) that is needed to open one lock (the virus) will be of no help for opening a different lock.
B) same thing - flu shots have zero to do with this virus
C) we don't know why this happens (antibody enhancement of disease), so even if I were to play along and say this is a conspiracy, I can't see how anyone could put this feature into a virus. Plus, it seems to happen with some other viruses, like HIV, Ebola and dengue.
You realize that NJ is in the process of opening testing sites in every county. Not sure what the time schedule is, but let's let them get everything up and running and then take the pulse.
I've been following this "drug cocktail" since I saw it on fox news several days ago... Google "Margaret Novins NJ".... This IS GOING TO BE A GAMECHANGER!! Not a vaccine obviously... But definitely will give people a fighters chance to survive this... Really wanna see how NY makes out with this!!!
Exactly right- in fact i never realized how serious the FLU was until this all started.
The big difference is that we have a vaccine for flu that helps protect nearly 60% of people each year. There is no, and won't be, a vaccine for this virus anytime soon. There still is no vaccine for SARS-CoV and that epidemic happened 17 years ago.
This makes me wonder about companies like JnJ suggesting, at the end of January, that they got a huge team on researchers on this and are hoping for a vaccine 6 months to a year out... was that BS to get everyone's mind off of asbestos in baby powder?
Yeah i get it - I think at the end of the day this virus has given people who have only grown up in a modern time period a dose of reality that at the end of the day we're not gods -- with all that we know and all the advancements in technology, we can be brought to our knees pretty easily.
This is probably the first time that 25-50% of the American population has dealt with significant hardship.
There's no vaccine for SARs not because we can't make one, but rather because there's no financial incentive for developing one.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...s-vaccine-years-ago-then-money-dried-n1150091
Well, after covid-19, we have incentive now - these guys will have one by September ........
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...rna-covid-19-vaccine-may-take-two-more-months
Dr. Birx: recent report regarding large numbers of death- in the model, either you have to have massive numbers of asymptomatic people, or you have the transmission rate wrong. Data doesn't match models. Working to have capacity to test for antibodies at scale but reality on the ground based on global numbers is that we see roughly one in a thousand infected.
Dr Fauci: starting to produce treatment/vaccine in advance of approval to get jump start on production. Need to ensure that any treatment does not actually make people more susceptible which can happen.
Dr. Birx: tailoring response in cooperation with state and local governments as appropriate for them.
Everybody involved seems to be on the same page that there will be a vaccine in about a year. 18 months max. Progress is already being made.
Another healthy relatively younger guy passes away from CV
Frightening
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...worker-with-coronavirus-dies-friend-says.html
Frightening
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...worker-with-coronavirus-dies-friend-says.html
Nobody credible said <12 months for a commercially available vaccine. Now, it is possible that if this is still going strong in 6 months or if it's seasonal, as many expect, and comes roaring back in October, then there could be strong pressure for emergency us of an unapproved vaccine for health care workers and very high risk patients.
My guess, though, is we'll be doing the antibody-in-plasma treatment for those same groups over the summer, assuming it works (and it really should), and we'll have a commercially available antibody therapy by mid/late summer, which does not need as much testing as a typical vaccine that uses a weakened or killed virus.
There's still no indication that HCQ/azithromycin works. A Chinese study showed little efficacy and the French study under Raoult, while potentially promising was fraught with questions, clinically. Hope I'm wrong but I doubt it's going to be very effective. Trump should have kept his mouth shut on this one, as it's not his place to speculate on medical research.
Wish I could like this ten times, lol. Can't recall - are you an MD? If so, what's your thinking on the crude, but fast/cheap approach to collecting antibodies from serum of recovered/infected people and infusing them into sick patients as a treatment or even as a preventative for high risk patients/health care workers? It's the first thing I've really been excited about in this whole mess.
Hopefully there arent any meaningful mutations as we see yearly struggles with identifying and predicting the most common strains of influenza year after year.
To protect the corn...and The Hawkeyes.
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