I should have said it more "nicely." Trying to keep this thread from partisan bickering, thanks.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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I should have said it more "nicely." Trying to keep this thread from partisan bickering, thanks.
83K cases now, leading the world, one day later than I thought, but that doesn't really matter. Just sucks. I'll be happy if we can keep it under 3.3MM (~1% of the population) and would be ecstatic if we can keep it under 330K (0.1% of the population), which I doubt. Italy is highest right now at 0.13% vs. our 0.025% of our population.
Actually people have been banned from the thread, so yeah, there is. Nobody is going to get banned for a post or two of bickering (we've all done it), but some have for repeated politically charged posts. Been trying to keep this thread useful for folks. Thanks!
Ru#1fan post was exactly the kind not needed here
It would be great if you took your own advise. Your post on De Blasio was all opinion and seriously lacking in facts.
there are no facts that say NYC will have 50% infections which is what 4 million people.
Exactly. There are no facts that say how many cases there will be anywhere on this planet. Attacking him is dragging politics into this thread.
If people shouldn't be listening to her, then who should we be listening to? I trust Fauci more than any of them and even he sounded pretty optimistic today which will probably offend you.
Glad this was of interest. I'm a PhD in immunology - head an academic research lab (where the discoveries are actually made :)). I also teach the MDs immunology.
Transfer of serum is old school, but definitely can work. I doubt it will be used as a preventative - I'd have to ask the MDs about that. But actually the really good news is that because this is being done and seems to help, people must be developing protective immunity to the virus. This means the next time it comes through, there is a reasonable chance not so many people will get sick.
Hopefully they are right, but that would be a record for developing a totally new vaccine. We still don't have vaccines for HIV or SARS. Fauci says it will be a minimum 1.5 years.
That would be huge.. I'm worried about the timing of a potential second wave assuming it comes around October. Kids will just be getting back to school a few weeks earlier, I would hate to see them get taken out again.
And then we would get robbed of our B1G championship if the football season got suspended.
They have a lot in the works and maybe they will get a good hit. It will be tough to get through full clinical trials by then, but there is no doubt that promising candidates will be fast tracked as long as they are proven safe. I remember when a friend at J&J who was head of world marketing told me they had a vaccine done for Zika virus back around 2015. Obviously didn't work out since there still is no vaccine.
Seems like there would be a market for a vaccine against West Nile virus and HIV among many others, but we don't have those either. The most common strains of coronaviruses (there are 7 including this novel one) cause tons of colds - estimated to cause an average of 6-8 respiratory ailments per person per year (many are very minor and go unnoticed). It seems like a vaccine against these would be pretty darn good business, too.
Some of the lead approaches to make vaccines against SARS-CoV, which are now being repurposed to go after SARS-CoV-2 include things that I never heard of before like mRNA based vaccines. Obviously I hope they work, but brand new stuff like this is tough
Optimism doesn't offend me one bit. I welcome it at any time and we really need some positive news. But lack of action during the initial month to month and a half is a large part of why we are in this predicament right now. It's hard to wave a magic wand over the course of the past 10 to 14 days and make the earlier inadequacies disappear. I didnt see today's press conference (if they had one) because I was at work in one of the largest hospitals in the state. At this very moment, I am texting three colleagues in two different critical care units of two different hospitals. The picture they paint is not one of optimism. NYC hospitals are bursting at the seams right now. Listen to what Coumo says, he isnt pulling anyone's leg. It's bad. NJ is very close behind NYC in the initial stages as they are at/nearing hospital, critical care bed capacity. I can go into a little detail if you would like, but it isn't a rosy picture. RU# knows the deal and he knows what is about to come...as do many of the other doctors, nurses, respiratory therapists, etc. who visit this board. You want objective and clinical facts, sprinkled typically with rational subjective interpretations? Listen to the people with a foot in the door of medical facilities or those delivering care at the bedside. It's a very different perspective and it is the reality we live in at this time.
I like the way you are thinking about football! That would take away the sting of missing RU in the dance.
If most of the cases of this virus are mild or even asymptomatic, I've seen something along the lines of 80%, I'm not sure how unreasonable that is.
And what is "About to come"? We've been hearing for 3 weeks how were 1-2 weeks behind Italy... Not saying it wont get worse before it gets better but the hysteria is absolutely insane.
Negative news and tragic headlines sell more news and get more clicks. Listen to the scientists , doctors and CDC ... this is a day that has been long overdue... in every bad situation there is absolutely nothing wrong giving some hopes and calm to the public in all countries and especially here.
Here's a little insight on a close to 600 bed hospital in NYC.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/health/elmhurst-hospital-new-york-13-deaths/index.html
And this video. I applaud and admire the hell out of this woman for sticking her neck out to protect herself, her staff and the sick patients.
As for NJ, critical care beds (CCU, ICU, MICU) are full. There is fierce planning to create critical care beds outside of the traditional units. PACUs, stepdown units, etc have been transformed to accommodate critical care patients. They are filling as well. All likes of medical personnel are being constantly exposed and they are becoming sick too. My guess is you will hear more and more stories like the ones in the links. Numbers are numbers and I like to rely on them alot. But seeing what happens on the inside gives you a completely different perspective. I said late last week to another poster, check back with me in 2-3 weeks...I will say to you, check back in a week or two.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/health/elmhurst-hospital-new-york-13-deaths/index.html
And this video. I applaud and admire the hell out of this woman for sticking her neck out to protect herself, her staff and the sick patients.
As for NJ, critical care beds (CCU, ICU, MICU) are full. There is fierce planning to create critical care beds outside of the traditional units. PACUs, stepdown units, etc have been transformed to accommodate critical care patients. They are filling as well. All likes of medical personnel are being constantly exposed and they are becoming sick too. My guess is you will hear more and more stories like the ones in the links. Numbers are numbers and I like to rely on them alot. But seeing what happens on the inside gives you a completely different perspective. I said late last week to another poster, check back with me in 2-3 weeks...I will say to you, check back in a week or two.
New device approved by FDA for emergency use. It can allow one ventilator to support up to four patients.
https://www.prismahealth.org/vesper/
https://www.prismahealth.org/vesper/
Sounds like fun. Just a PhD chem E here with interest in all kinds of science and time on my hands post-retirement this past December. Were you involved in any of the PD-1 research associated with Keytruda, Opdivo or others? Amazing what the immunological approach has done for cancer.
If we have no effective treatments in the next month or two, but the serum-antibody approach affords at least some protection, wouldn't you think they'd at least consider it for high risk patients (elderly/underlying conditions) and maybe health care workers and other public-facing workers? It's not hard to do, just time consuming - and I guarantee it's cheaper than any pharmaceutical invention that comes along.
I'm also sure you're familiar with the antibody platform approach from Regeneron and others. Posted about that awhile back (link below). It worked pretty well for Ebola as a treatment (don't think it was used as a preventative "vaccine" especially since the vaccine the Canadians developed and Merck commercialized was already in clinical trials at the time).
And if we don't get an approved vaccine for at least 12 months (I think 12 is doable - have done a bit of vaccine development work at Merck), the antibody approach would probably be tried as a preventative, even if it only gives months of protection.
Would be great to have you post more in this thread...
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...social-distancing.191275/page-13#post-4449948
Had an exchange with a friend on this a few days ago and we chuckled that it must be harder than just putting in a "Y" lol. I assumed one would need parallel pressure/flow controllers on each branch to ensure each patient got the correct pressure and flow rate of oxygen and we started geeking out on designing something (this is the kind of stuff we do every day in our eng'g R&D labs), but this just looks like a Y.
More stuff from previous posts (easier than retyping) - the Moderna mRNA approach is pretty unproven and my vaccine buddy thinks it's maybe a 10-15% shot to be successful. I know many other companies are working on more traditional weakened/killed virus vaccines, which will take longer, due to the heightened safety concerns (which is why I love the evolution-directed antibody approach).
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...social-distancing.191275/page-31#post-4467668
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...social-distancing.191275/page-32#post-4468133
That's a scary chart especially without scale. By scale meaning can you adjust the x axis to show the worlds population and trend it agianst a seasonal flu?a picture says a thousand words...
I'm not trying to debate you, rather I would like to see it in more context.
Maybe even showing the US Net of NY and NY itself?
It has a scale, but it could be labelled better, so I recopied it - it's total confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide, so far, showing classic exponential growth over the last week or two. I don't have a flu chart, but I know it's usually not exponential growth, i.e., the kind of growth that can produce a very high peak hospital demand in a very short timeframe, even if the total cases are less (as they will likely be with CV2). The US curve is similar although on a smaller Y-axis with less cases and it doesn't show the China cases early on.
A little good news on the young man from Ridgewood/Metuchen who was airlifted to UPenn...
https://www.pix11.com/news/coronavi...aDi_7-RIhXHZ5QPH9wiS2a81NZzW5VHYJ6Sse7tM3DgCI
https://www.pix11.com/news/coronavi...aDi_7-RIhXHZ5QPH9wiS2a81NZzW5VHYJ6Sse7tM3DgCI
I have read where people had been creating ways to split ventilators. In theory it's a great idea. The practical implications could be tricky. Assuming one ventilator would provide the exact same output to each patient, there are many different settings which regulate how oxygen would be delivered. I won't go into it too much, but tidal volume, peak respiratory pressure, and percentage of oxygen delivered are some of the settings on a vent. In theory, unless there is an intermediary regulator after the Y and between EACH patient, the ventilator would deliver the same vent settings to each patient which can be tricky and/or dangerous as the needs differ from person to person. Also, I'm not sure how the vent would analyze the feedback from multiple patients as it constantly adjusts itself based on the response from the patient. Finally, cross contamination is a concern. If there are multiple mutations of the virus, each patient might be susceptible to the other person's virus they share the ventilator with. In addition, if they are sharing the same room, there are other possible cross contamination concerns. These would include other respiratory infections (influenza, TB) and contact infections which can be spread from person to person (MRSA, klebsiella, etc). These are just SOME of the immediate hurdles which jump into my head when splitting a vent.
Yes. it's "just" a Y. But I'm sure the dimensions were designed such that it would do what it is supposed to without adversely affecting the delivery of oxygen.
Also, more importantly, as mentioned on their site: "... does not impact the care of other patients connected to the same machine."
I posted it here because I thought this was interesting. It shows that folks are being innovative as we all collectively fight this virus. Bet they could have used this in Italy.
Just trying to throw optimism in the current environment. But thx for telling us the half filled glass is half empty.
BTW - someone I am aware of was released from hospital treated with the malaria drug.
BTW - someone I am aware of was released from hospital treated with the malaria drug.
Here’s a good story from CNN. I read a couple days ago a 90 year old also recovered. It’s good to see all stories but not just the negative like young getting sick. Here’s one of the old getting well.
A 87-year-old coronavirus patient recovered after his family was told to "prepare for the worst"
From CNN's Dominic Rech
Percy Ewart Lockton, 87, was diagnosed with coronavirus after he returned to the UK from an idyllic cruise around the Caribbean with his wife Phyllis last month.
His condition deteriorated and he was soon fighting for his life in North Manchester General Hospital.
“There were a few days when we really were very worried about him and we were told to prepare for the worst," his granddaughter, Sophie Edwards told CNN.
With the help of some antibiotics to help treat another chest infection triggered by the Covid-19, the tide began to turn for Ewart. Eventually, as his health improved, he was given the all clear to go home, according to his granddaughter.
A Facebook post from Sophie shows the moment Ewart was discharged, wearing a mask and walking out of the hospital, accompanied by a nurse.
“This is my 87 year old Grandpa saying goodbye to staff at North Manchester Hospital where he’s been for 2 weeks with Covid Positive Pneumonia. He’s now finishing his recovery where he belongs, at home with my Grandma!” the post reads.
A 87-year-old coronavirus patient recovered after his family was told to "prepare for the worst"
From CNN's Dominic Rech
Percy Ewart Lockton, 87, was diagnosed with coronavirus after he returned to the UK from an idyllic cruise around the Caribbean with his wife Phyllis last month.
His condition deteriorated and he was soon fighting for his life in North Manchester General Hospital.
“There were a few days when we really were very worried about him and we were told to prepare for the worst," his granddaughter, Sophie Edwards told CNN.
With the help of some antibiotics to help treat another chest infection triggered by the Covid-19, the tide began to turn for Ewart. Eventually, as his health improved, he was given the all clear to go home, according to his granddaughter.
A Facebook post from Sophie shows the moment Ewart was discharged, wearing a mask and walking out of the hospital, accompanied by a nurse.
“This is my 87 year old Grandpa saying goodbye to staff at North Manchester Hospital where he’s been for 2 weeks with Covid Positive Pneumonia. He’s now finishing his recovery where he belongs, at home with my Grandma!” the post reads.
Using false optimism obfuscates the gravity of the situation. The more people hear "it's not that serious", the more likely they will relax their behaviors regarding social distancing and precautions. Not the time for that.
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