COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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It's just worsening folks.
Way more cases than anticipated
It's highly disturbing and not close to the peak. Several weeks away and its already a disaster
Way more cases than anticipated
It's highly disturbing and not close to the peak. Several weeks away and its already a disaster
I always thought that with the late start in taking action and the geographic challenges we have (people going from large cities to other large cities) that at the end of the day we would be right up there with the hardest hit countries from cases per capita perspective.
After ignoring calls to do this weeks ago, Trump finally ordered GM to begin building ventilators by employing the Defense Production Act.
for weeks we've been hearing that were 2 weeks.behind Italy and were going to peak in 2 weeks... Now we're "several weeks away" lol.
Yeah, I completely agree about the mRNA approach. I and the others around me had actually had never even heard that idea before reading about Moderna. DNA "vaccines" have worked for treating melanoma, but unfortunately only in dogs.
Creating a new antibody that neutralizes the virus would also be a revolutionary approach. This type of approach is so much more realistic these days with the advent of next generation sequencing and the massive computational power we now have available. The weakness is that neutralizing a virus likely takes multiple antibodies with different specificities.
My guess is that we will need to get lucky with the traditional approaches. We (me and three other faculty) are trying to get funding to extend our studies in which we engineer the antigen (the virus protein that we want antibodies against) to make it better at causing an immune response. We have used model antigens and show that this works - we get both higher affinity antibodies and a much broader response. If we could have had funding 4 years ago, we would already know if it would work. Frustrating.
Corrected: As pointed out later in this thread by @RU848789 and my wife (another immunologist), there has been success with modifying an mAb to treat Ebola. I'm told that Regeneron has put a huge part of their operation on making this happen. Regeneron is a tremendous scientific company. Very good news.
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There will not be one peak. It will peak in one area one day and then in another area another day. And so on. And then it will come back again in the fall.
statistically it looks like NYC will peak around April 4th, give or take 5 days. Northern NJ, about 3 - 10 days after.
That doesn't mean it will stop.
We may catch a break with climate but it looks like the temp and relative humidity that mitigates spreading of this will not be in the tri state until late June/July - Aug.
Chemical engineering - that is some serious stuff. I still start sweating thinking about trying to get through Physical chemistry as a biologist thrown in with a bunch of Chem and Chem E majors. I was like a deer in the headlights, while they calmly read the newspaper during lectures. Prof worked on the Manhattan Project
The whole checkpoint inhibitor field (like anti-PD1) was really thanks to the doggedness of Dr. James Allison, who won the Nobel prize a couple of years ago for his discovery of anti-CTLA4 as treatment (Ipilimumab). Jim's a long time friend, neighbor and colleague (he was my chair for many years). Lots of stories there, but one key one is that it took him 20 years to get FDA approval for ani-CTLA4. Companies like Genetec and BMS would barely even talk to him.
I'm told Regeneron has turned all or least much of its efforts towards solving this virus. The guys in charge of that place are freaking awesome, so that gives me hope.
Wait, how long ago was that? I met Edward Teller when I was a kid. Gotta be close to 40 years ago now, and he was in his 70's then.
Thought I would pass this along - Doc on the Michigan board who works at Beaumont Hospital in Detroit. I think this was from yesterday. Today the hospital closed its ER. Unbelievable.
Update: Working on Covid-19 floor: Hey guys heres an Update from working a 12 hour overtime shift today. The Beaumont I work at, our new strategy is that we will now be using the N95 mask for more than one day, they will be running them thru some sort of hot steam to clean them, we are basically out of Surgical mask that cover and somewhat protect of N95 mask! We also have no Isolation stethoscopes left in the hospital ether, We are so desperate for Isolation gowns we are having to wash them in house because we go thru them so fast. Had Multiple patients get put on Vents, yes two of the three had prior medical history, the third had no medical history at all to warrant any danger to needing a vent. Had one patient die because we could intubate him fast enough and also showed no signs of Covid-19 until hours before he died. My floor is now maxed out at 44 private rooms and then are now setting up 5 North and 5 South where they are two beds per room, and have 40 rooms per unit, so roughly about 160 more beds. Our policies are changing daily on what we are doing and how to care for these patients. Just thought I’d share a quick update, already scheduled to work 60 and with a possibility of 72 hours next week.
Update: Working on Covid-19 floor: Hey guys heres an Update from working a 12 hour overtime shift today. The Beaumont I work at, our new strategy is that we will now be using the N95 mask for more than one day, they will be running them thru some sort of hot steam to clean them, we are basically out of Surgical mask that cover and somewhat protect of N95 mask! We also have no Isolation stethoscopes left in the hospital ether, We are so desperate for Isolation gowns we are having to wash them in house because we go thru them so fast. Had Multiple patients get put on Vents, yes two of the three had prior medical history, the third had no medical history at all to warrant any danger to needing a vent. Had one patient die because we could intubate him fast enough and also showed no signs of Covid-19 until hours before he died. My floor is now maxed out at 44 private rooms and then are now setting up 5 North and 5 South where they are two beds per room, and have 40 rooms per unit, so roughly about 160 more beds. Our policies are changing daily on what we are doing and how to care for these patients. Just thought I’d share a quick update, already scheduled to work 60 and with a possibility of 72 hours next week.
I cannot remember his name, but he was an old guy when I took the class in 1986 at U of M.
I believe the young 25 year old Lacrosse player who was in dire shape this past week is making good progress at U Penn...he was transferred there from JFK Hospital in Edison NJ were they were doing clinical trails with Hydroxychloroquine and I believe Zithromicin in IV form...there are others but this is only the beginnining of many potential drugs...think what would happen if no one got an annual flu shot ...it would possibly be worse...
Johnny, that's awesome to think of recognizing these workers. The past 5 days we have been treated to lunch by someone or multiple people. I heard at least 2 of the days, it was donated from outside. Other days it was bought by the administration I think. I heard Starbucks was giving healthcare workers free cups of joe. Awesome and generous is all I can say. Here's a great thought for you or others to accomplish two things at once. First, contact a local community hospital and/or a particular floor you want to say thank you to. When in doubt, call a hospital and ask to speak to a nursing supervisor, they are a good resource tomhelpmget things done. Explain to them you want to recognize and treat the staff of a particular department/floor for their efforts. If you have the $$ treat the whole hospital. When given ok, call a local business and order a shit ton of food. Staff loves food, are typically hungry from busting their asses, and it's nice to be recognized. Plus you are helping local businesses survive. A good overall, net effect for both parties and you will probably feel better knowing you helped those fighting this battle against Covid-19.
That's the exact response I needed. Do you work in one of these hospitals? What's it cost to buy an entire hospital lunch? How many are working in there?
The "engineered antibody" approach did work as a treatment for Ebola (Regeneron). We really need a break.
After I wrote this, I asked my wife (she's also an immunologist) and she told me about the Ebola antibody. That success, plus the ability of companies to produce huge amounts of highly concentrated mAbs (Humira is 100mg/ml, which is just crazy) make this promising. I wonder if it could be given prophylactically to frontline workers?
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/gord...ng-together-activity-6649065261703970816-Ljbl
One victory at a time ........
One victory at a time ........
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It's just math, lol. The checkpoint story is pretty amazing. I've heard a ton from the Merck perspective on Keytruda, which was languishing at Schering Plough (who didn't know what to do with it at Organon) and not doing much at Merck either, until a few dedicated souls pushed really hard and management revived it after seeing the BMS success with Opdivo, but the key for Merck was focusing on the PDL1 biomarker, which BMS did not and that ended up being the key to Keytruda becoming the biggest selling drug in the world. The link makes fascinating reading and Jim Allison gets some ink in it too, as he should.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davids...d-mercks-new-cancer-blockbuster/#7efe2e6a948d
My very good friend, who's a VP at Regeneron says they're "all in" on the engineered antibody approach they used for Ebola and are hopeful we'll see some clinical data this summer. I'm truly hoping the antibodies in plasma from patients who had COVID-19 will work and be enough to help the worst cases and be used for high risk people as a preventative. Could get us over the hump until we have something more scalable we could do for everyone (although I'd line up in a heartbeat for a plasma infusion if it works - just not sure we'll have enough to go around).
Doesn't say what the drug is, but I know you're a remdesivir guy, so is that it?
Why are you so sure that it comes back in the Fall?
It may never leave, until a vaccine comes
The video in my link to this talks about all of this. Regeneron originally wanted to use it as a "vaccine," but the Canada/Merck vaccine was in a big trial and worked, so I think that's why they only used it as treatment for infected people. But many think it could work as a prophylactic, at least for months, as a bridge to when we have a true vaccine.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...Y7g7SYSHpXy-ZWFdBVHPoJ9KxLCyRX-njshM36vUCzO3Y
Think somebody may have posted this earlier, but if not, this is huge. 5-15 minute test for the virus by Abbott Labs and it's touted to be very easy to run and could churn out tens of thousands of tests per day and is supposed to be ready to deploy on 4/1, as it just got FDA approval.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-minute-covid-19-test-for-use-almost-anywhere
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-minute-covid-19-test-for-use-almost-anywhere
Yes, fingers crossed.
Something to keep in mind though, while drugs like remdesivir and HCQ works against the virus itself, patients at a serious stage, suffering from cytokine storm immune backlash will not be helped by remdesivir. This is why the genentech drug I previously posted is also important as an IL-6 antagonist to control cytokine storm.
Cleaning the garage today, I found the box of Midnight Flyers that you are interested in. There are 2 80C mold almost minty but the others are used, 1 80 mold, a 50 mold, blue and black 100D molds and a 100E.
U can have any single disc that you want, if you can get in touch with me.
Ur posts on the C19 are GOAT.
NY Times article that just came out. Haven't had time to digest it, but the message is that NYC Metro and other US cities are on trajectories worse than Wuhan and Lombardy, at least with regard to cases per 1000 people and that "flattening the curve" when comparing where each city was with similar numbers of infections (to try to normalize the data), is likely not working as well as it worked in those locations. That would not be good.
Two caveats however. I have never believed the Wuhan data – they’ve been lying about the outbreak from day 1 and there’s no way they only had 0.05% infected and they just said that they haven’t been counting asymptomatic people who tested positive, which could be 30-40% of all positives, based on data from many locations (including the Diamond Princess, the "gold standard" of data).
Secondly, I’m confused by their case growth for NYC metro, which is the 20MM people in NY/NJ/PA/CT. There should be no way the growth rates overall there (which the graph shows as 30-40% growth the past few days) are greater than in NYC proper (9MM), which they are, as NYC proper is seeing 15-20% day over day growth the past few days and NYC is the most densely populated area in the country and in theory should have the greatest growth rate all else being equal (more “collisions” and subways and crowds and such). I’m not saying it’s wrong or the message is wrong, but that bothers me.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
Two caveats however. I have never believed the Wuhan data – they’ve been lying about the outbreak from day 1 and there’s no way they only had 0.05% infected and they just said that they haven’t been counting asymptomatic people who tested positive, which could be 30-40% of all positives, based on data from many locations (including the Diamond Princess, the "gold standard" of data).
Secondly, I’m confused by their case growth for NYC metro, which is the 20MM people in NY/NJ/PA/CT. There should be no way the growth rates overall there (which the graph shows as 30-40% growth the past few days) are greater than in NYC proper (9MM), which they are, as NYC proper is seeing 15-20% day over day growth the past few days and NYC is the most densely populated area in the country and in theory should have the greatest growth rate all else being equal (more “collisions” and subways and crowds and such). I’m not saying it’s wrong or the message is wrong, but that bothers me.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
Wow, thanks!! On the discs, I think it was the yessir guy who wanted to buy the discs. I have my originals, which I actually still use.
In South Korea, the number of recovered patients has overtaken those receiving treatment for the first time
From CNN's Sophie Jeong in Seoul
As of Saturday, more than 4,800 coronavirus patients have been discharged from isolation in South Korea, according to the country's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. About 4,500 remain in isolation undergoing treatment.
It marked the first time the number of recovered people has exceeded the number of people being treated since January 20, when coronavirus cases were first confirmed in the country.
“There is still a long way to go, but the 50% recovery rate is a small achievement that all in our society should celebrate together,” said Yoon Tae-ho, director-general for public health policy at the Ministry of Health and Welfare.
From CNN's Sophie Jeong in Seoul
As of Saturday, more than 4,800 coronavirus patients have been discharged from isolation in South Korea, according to the country's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. About 4,500 remain in isolation undergoing treatment.
It marked the first time the number of recovered people has exceeded the number of people being treated since January 20, when coronavirus cases were first confirmed in the country.
“There is still a long way to go, but the 50% recovery rate is a small achievement that all in our society should celebrate together,” said Yoon Tae-ho, director-general for public health policy at the Ministry of Health and Welfare.
Duke researchers on decontaminating N95 masks for reuse.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/27/health/n95-respirator-rewear-coronavirus-duke-trnd/index.html
Abbott gets approval for test that can get results within minutes.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/abb...ct-coronavirus-in-as-little-as-5-minutes.html
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/27/health/n95-respirator-rewear-coronavirus-duke-trnd/index.html
Abbott gets approval for test that can get results within minutes.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/abb...ct-coronavirus-in-as-little-as-5-minutes.html
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I'm not even sure how I would estimate that. The answer to your first question is yes. The next is a bit more complex. You might want to pick a local hospital or unit/floor that has a special meaning to you. Maybe somewhere you or family member was admitted/had surgery/was born as a start. Community hospitals might have 200 beds versus some of the biggest ones in state with close to 1000. Allocate whatever $$ you want and I suggest to earmark it for the front line people taking care of the sick people. I dont want to belittle what anyone is doing in the hospital because the efforts have been massive from top to bottom. But the ones in the protective suits, on the floors, staring Covid-19 in the face every day are most deserving in my opinion. The emotional stress and duress of the unknown plus the physical care they are delivering is incredible and why they need a boost. These are the nurses, residents, doctors, ambulance staff, respiratory therapists, physical therapists, nursing aides, phlebotomists, (blood takers), EKG technicians, radiology technicians, house keepers, secrtaries, etc. who have a hand in delivering care to these patients. You can do it anonymously or name yourself/business. Some people may want to thank you and/or your business personally. I'd enjoy sitting down with you at some point and enjoy a frosty beverage. I hope this helps and thank you for even considering this generous act.
NY Times article that just came out. Haven't had time to digest it, but the message is that NYC Metro and other US cities are on trajectories worse than Wuhan and Lombardy, at least with regard to cases per 1000 people and that "flattening the curve" when comparing where each city was with similar numbers of infections (to try to normalize the data), is likely not working as well as it worked in those locations. That would not be good.
Two caveats however. I have never believed the Wuhan data – they’ve been lying about the outbreak from day 1 and there’s no way they only had 0.05% infected and they just said that they haven’t been counting asymptomatic people who tested positive, which could be 30-40% of all positives, based on data from many locations (including the Diamond Princess, the "gold standard" of data).
Secondly, I’m confused by their case growth for NYC metro, which is the 20MM people in NY/NJ/PA/CT. There should be no way the growth rates overall there (which the graph shows as 30-40% growth the past few days) are greater than in NYC proper (9MM), which they are, as NYC proper is seeing 15-20% day over day growth the past few days and NYC is the most densely populated area in the country and in theory should have the greatest growth rate all else being equal (more “collisions” and subways and crowds and such). I’m not saying it’s wrong or the message is wrong, but that bothers me.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
As good as the theory sounds, there were (and still are) subsets who did not/are not heed(ing) the advice. These people are the ones who will fvck up some of the potential for flattening that curve and will have a hand in pushing the healthcare system over the edge.
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I remember seeing footage in Feb of people in space suits in South Korea spraying disinfectants in their subways and streets.
We don't do that here in NYC or other cities?
And why are our trains and subways still open?
Obvious conductors on spreading the CV
We don't do that here in NYC or other cities?
And why are our trains and subways still open?
Obvious conductors on spreading the CV
just want to says congrats to contributors in this thread.. you're on fire now. well done.
NY Times article that just came out. Haven't had time to digest it, but the message is that NYC Metro and other US cities are on trajectories worse than Wuhan and Lombardy, at least with regard to cases per 1000 people and that "flattening the curve" when comparing where each city was with similar numbers of infections (to try to normalize the data), is likely not working as well as it worked in those locations. That would not be good.
Two caveats however. I have never believed the Wuhan data – they’ve been lying about the outbreak from day 1 and there’s no way they only had 0.05% infected and they just said that they haven’t been counting asymptomatic people who tested positive, which could be 30-40% of all positives, based on data from many locations (including the Diamond Princess, the "gold standard" of data).
Secondly, I’m confused by their case growth for NYC metro, which is the 20MM people in NY/NJ/PA/CT. There should be no way the growth rates overall there (which the graph shows as 30-40% growth the past few days) are greater than in NYC proper (9MM), which they are, as NYC proper is seeing 15-20% day over day growth the past few days and NYC is the most densely populated area in the country and in theory should have the greatest growth rate all else being equal (more “collisions” and subways and crowds and such). I’m not saying it’s wrong or the message is wrong, but that bothers me.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
Another interesting analysis, also showing a number of things many have been discussing. Bottom line is the virus is spreading rapidly across the country and NY is just out in front and other states/cities are going to catch up when/if they start testing more. We're nowhere near through this yet, as most experts have been saying - and it's also why folks like Gov Cuomo and many other governors now are screaming for more Federal help on PPE/Ventilators and other supplies.
- Lack of testing masking true case rates and making death rates appear worse than they truly are (Italy/Spain); also NY is likely the only state showing "true" case rate increases, since it's the only state doing very aggressive testing. As the article said. "There is a real threat of many more NY-style scenarios unfolding in other U.S. major metro areas, especially since only some of these states have state-wide lockdown orders in place."
- By looking at death counts and backing out what that "should have" correlated to in terms of cases, the first graph below was created. It shows how South Korea has tested enough to actually have a likely 77% of actual cases tested and that the "U.S. is in the middle of the pack with ~15% of cases reported (82K on 3/26). If this analysis is accurate, this means U.S. has AT LEAST 500,000 cases as of today, or approximately 0.2% of population."
- The "true" mortalilty rate (outside of factors like population age, cultural practices like multigenerational families, and hospitals being overwhelmed and not being able to treat everyone) is likely around 1.3%, as that’s what SK has migrated towards and we know they’ve done the most testing per capita.
- The US case rate increases are the worst in the world right now, although the graphs in the link aren't on a per capita basis, so that could be deceiving.
- Cool social distancing map keyed to cell phones (just like traffic).
In case anyone doubts that the Chinese have been lying about their data, see the link (way more urns than deaths reported). I've been assuming they undereported by 10X, especially in Hubei. That would mean roughly 30K deaths and 800K positive cases, which is where we're likely headed (or worse if we don't start doing better with containment/social distancing across the country).
http://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/u...ll-raising-more-questions-about-chinas-tally/
http://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/u...ll-raising-more-questions-about-chinas-tally/
Anyone know why Cuomo has continued saying they needed ventilatiz when it has now come out he has a stockpile of them?
Certainly the data out of China seems to be vastly underreported. A look at the virus growth curves for Wuhan before the lockdown, don't match the growth curves we've seen everywhere else. I suspect you are correct in your assessment of China underreporting by a factor of 10.
But I'm not sure that article is accurate in their assumptions on mortuary urns. Without Covid-19, you would expect about 400 people per day to die in a city of 11 million. So over the 60-day lockdown, there would still be about 24,000 deaths that have nothing to do with Covid-19.
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