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COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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Looks like the UK is not able to control their populace:

Coronavirus: Sadiq Khan warns 'stop Tube travel or more will die'

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London Underground commuters have been warned that if they do not stop packing into trains more people will die from coronavirus.

Mayor of London Sadiq Khan issued the alert after photos showed crowds in Tube carriages for a second morning running.

Mr Khan insisted the network was running for essential workers only.
 
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Agreed. And as I think we were discussing a couple of weeks ago (hard to even think that far back isn't it?), emergency/compassionate use by this fall (especially for healthcare workers) could be in the cards if the trials proceed well, as per the last bullet in the link. Still think the antibody approach will be ready by mid-summer, before even an emergency rollout of a vaccine in the fall. But it's good to have a ton of parallel efforts going on on many treatment and prevention fronts.

On March 23, 2020, Moderna filed a Current Report on Form 8-K which included, among other things, information regarding the potential timing of the availability of a vaccine against COVID-19. The Company reported that the Phase 1 study is proceeding in accordance with the protocol under the direction of NIAID. The Company further reported that while a commercially-available vaccine is not likely to be available for at least 12-18 months, it is possible that under emergency use, a vaccine could be available to some people, possibly including healthcare professionals, in the fall of 2020. Any emergency use would be subject to authorization by the appropriate regulatory agencies, based on the emergence of clinical data for mRNA-1273 that would support use of the vaccine prior to licensure. In addition, the Company confirmed that it is scaling up manufacturing capacity toward the production of millions of doses per month, in the potential form of individual or multi-dose vials. As has previously been disclosed, the ability of the Company to make millions of doses per month is contingent on investments in the scale up and further buildout of the Company’s existing manufacturing infrastructure.

@RU2055 - I have a friend who's very plugged into the vaccine world (and even was working on a project with Moderna at one time) and he just posted this on my FB post, which was essentially what I posted above, and he is guessing this had about a 10% success likelihood of making it to market. Tempered my enthusiasm a bit.

The success rate across all modalities and diseases (non-oncology) was 12% from FIH to Approval (and is 16% for vaccines). The discount on Moderna's probability of success is my gut instinct and not based on any data around mRNA vaccines or LNP delivery systems.

https://www.bio.org/.../Clinical%20Development%20Success...
 
Birx just said US has done more tests in 8 days than South Korea did in 8 weeks. Testing is happening.

Positive tests well under 10% in most of the country

Positive tests about 28% in nyc area
 
Anyone know if the testing centers in NJ are mobbed today like they were yesterday?
 
Regardless of whether we were late or not, the ramp up of tests has been a strong point. How does our population count compare to SK? I don’t know off-hand.

Let’s hope we can ramp up critical supplies like we did for the tests.
 
As of today, NJ.com is reporting the state completed a total of approx 12,000 tests. "Of the 12,000 tests, 3,600 have been positive, for 27%." (Note the math doesn't work. 3,600 positive out of 12,000 is 30%. For 3,600 positive to be 27%, then about 13,300 tests would have had to been completed.)
 
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Supposedly there are 36 cases in Wayne now. They've taken extreme measures by locking all of the tennis courts. Perhaps someone can explain to me how that is effective?
 
Yes, it's due to testing. NJ likely has at least 20,000 positive cases right now, as the rule of thumb is 10X in a grossly undertested area - people didn't believe me when I said that about NY about 5 days ago likely having 20,000+ cases when they had ~2000 positives - most of the new positives are not from new transmissions, but from testing more.

The biggest piece of advice I can give anyone is to simply assume that everybody you see outside of your home (and maybe even inside if you don't know their contact history) has the virus and keep 6 feet away. That's even more important than hand washing, as person-to-person transmission is responsible for the vast majority of infections. It's also why it's borderline negligent that we don't have surgical masks for every citizen, like they do in the Asian countries that have largely controlled their outbreaks - they're very effective in keeping the germs in (i.e., trapping the virus laden droplets from infected people, even those who don't know they're infected).

You have been awesome with your intuitive responses and relaying information to the Rutgers faithful here. Thank you. In response to the highlighted above, it's amazing to think what simple precautions taken could have helped prevent the onslaught that is about to hit us very soon. You know...an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure..the entire nation from citizens to healthcare facilities to local/state/federal governments are unfortunately going see the poop hit the fan very soon I am afraid...
 
Birx just said US has done more tests in 8 days than South Korea did in 8 weeks. Testing is happening.

Positive tests well under 10% in most of the country

Positive tests about 28% in nyc area

Totally False.
South Korea has tested 1 out of 170 citizens. US has only tested 1 out of 1090 Citizens.
https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...still-isnt-close-to-what-south-korea-has-done

It's "true" but largely irrelevant, since bac and Birx need to consider population. The US has 325MM people, while SK has 51MM (6.5 to 1 ratio), which is almost exactly 1090/170. Population matters for this and everything else. The US and SK both have about 165 cases per 1MM population and ~2 deaths per 1MM, but SK has contained their outbreak, while the US is on the exponential growth part of the curve and will far surpass SK on cases and deaths per capita soon.

The big question is whether we'll go anywhere near the mortality rates seen in places like Italy (10%) or Spain (7%). I don't actually think so, since we're only at 1.3% now, but our rate will go up to 1.7-1.8% or so, since most of our cases were diagnosed in the last week and it takes 2-4 weeks, typically, from symptoms to death, plus our rates could go up even more than that if we have major cities, like NYC, becoming overwhelmed without enough ventilators, like occurred in Italy, causing death rates to climb rapidly. If the Feds just simply release the ventilators from their stock and get more sources on line, we should be ok.
 
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Not false, SK tested 270000 US 300000. Why do we have quibble over this silly stuff?

Because everything has to be portrayed in a negative light in this thread....some here even turning on Birx and think they know more. The rate and ease of testing is increasing at a rapid pace here..thats the point to take..we are rapidly accelerating testing
 
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Do we take it as a positive that the rate of increase of new cases in US is declining
No, because that's only one day's worth of data and it largely reflects NY not continuing the crazy case acceleration they've had, plus, in parallel, the rest of the states (other than WA which had the first major outbreak) have not been testing as aggressively as NY and are also behind NY in timing, so we're not seeing a true reflection of actual cases yet. Unfortunately, CA, TX, IL, OH, FL etc. will likely start taking off soon (NJ already is), unless there's a "spring miracle" (seasonality of the virus causing slowing of transmission as things warm up in April).

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Do we take it as a positive that the rate of increase of new cases in US is declining

It is? Washington where this virus was first detected hasn't even declined yet. They have leveled off at about 11% increase of newly diagnosed cases since Sunday. New York has tested the hell out of people and they are up 63% since Sunday. Florida 70%. Covid-19 positive numbers are going to see a big jump in my opinion because our leaders in D.C. have done a stellar job in the past 8 days by doing more tests "than we have in the past 8 weeks". That's nothing to celebrate by the way. The multiplying, walking infected coupled with the upsurge in testing is likely to produce even greater increases in Covid-19 positive numbers very soon.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/mapping-spread-new-coronavirus/
 
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Not false, SK tested 270000 US 300000. Why do we have quibble over this silly stuff?
It's not quibbling and it's not silly. Read my post on this. We have 6.5X more people and we started testing much later than SK - and we are doing nowhere near as good as they did on tracing contacts and quarantining positives and their contacts, which is why we're about to have far more deaths and hospitalizations per capita than SK did - within a week or two we'll likely have 10X the amount of deaths per capita than SK (we're even now).
 
No, because that's only one day's worth of data and it largely reflects NY not continuing the crazy case acceleration they've had, plus, in parallel, the rest of the states (other than WA which had the first major outbreak) have not been testing as aggressively as NY and are also behind NY in timing, so we're not seeing a true reflection of actual cases yet. Unfortunately, CA, TX, IL, OH, FL etc. will likely start taking off soon (NJ already is), unless there's a "spring miracle" (seasonality of the virus causing slowing of transmission as things warm up in April).

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B6k0XyM.png
I mean, in reality...because of the shutdowns and social distancing, I'm sure the actual number of new cases each day is probably decreasing now in most places. But as you noted above, I highly doubt that's being reflected in the official numbers which are largely driven by amount and location of testing. I know up here for the most part, they're only doing tests on (1) HCW who may have been exposed, (2) first responders who may have been exposed or are showing symptoms, and (3) patients with severe enough illness to require hospitalization. Maybe also some close contacts of confirmed cases but that's it.

Even if new infections are decreasing, since it takes 5 or more days for most people to show symptoms and then another 5 or more days to require hospitalization, we're still going to be detecting those cases for a while and that will lead to confirmed case rates increasing for a while.

And deaths are nowhere near peaking. The numbers are going to get ridiculous over the next couple of weeks especially in places like NYC. When we start to see death rates and ICU rates decreasing then we'll know we've made a big dent in this.
 
Last night as I was watching the news, I just kept getting angry. How can the government not just mass produce everything? How is testing still an issue? They need to switch over anything they can to make protective gear, test kits, ventilators, oxygen etc.

I am on board with the amount of people "confirmed" is complete and utter BS. It's definitely vastly under reported and the fact that we aren't capable/ willing to test everything that may be positive is crazy. I know this first hand, sick people told to stay at home if not critical with no tests.

We need to lockdown everyone simultaneously, this slow march to it will do nothing. After the lockdown we will need everyone to wear masks to keep transmission down. (is this crazy, maybe?)

Sorry for the rant, I just see the tidal wave of sick coming and all the promises of "this (insert test kits, hospital beds etc)is coming" etc is making me mad.
You've obviously never worked in manufacturing operations... My company developed a testing assay in a matter of weeks and is now shipping to testing centers in NY. That was possible because we have already had testing platforms already in place at labs like Quest and labcore. That effort was significant. Now talk of asking companies like GM to make ventilators...that's ludicrous.
 
The big question is whether we'll go anywhere near the mortality rates seen in places like Italy (10%) or Spain (7%). I don't actually think so, since we're only at 1.3% now, but our rate will go up to 1.7-1.8% or so, since most of our cases were diagnosed in the last week and it takes 2-4 weeks, typically, from symptoms to death, plus our rates could go up even more than that if we have major cities, like NYC, becoming overwhelmed without enough ventilators, like occurred in Italy, causing death rates to climb rapidly. If the Feds just simply release the ventilators from their stock and get more sources on line, we should be ok.

Let me see if I have this riight. Folks have been saying 4% for about 3 weeks.
Folks have been calling for extreme increases in clalamity for about 3 weeks.
The rate has kept declining because as many have said test rates would increase. Now we're holding out math that its no longer the virus killing folks but our inability to muster medical reasources to deal. So now we can't blame the virus but now can blame ourselves. OK. (yeah I get it..Overrun the hospitals).

Seriously. Let me know the facts on the Fed holding back the supplies. Your numbers and sources. That's a heck of a claim. I know you're smart. But that's a comment I need to see validated sir.
 
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And deaths are nowhere near peaking. The numbers are going to get ridiculous over the next couple of weeks especially in places like NYC. When we start to see death rates and ICU rates decreasing then we'll know we've made a big dent in this.

Please define and please explain where you got your conclusion and the base line for your the word ridiculous. Interested to know the scale in your mind.
 
It is? Washington where this virus was first detected hasn't even declined yet. They have leveled off at about 11% increase of newly diagnosed cases since Sunday. New York has tested the hell out of people and they are up 63% since Sunday. Florida 70%. Covid-19 positive numbers are going to see a big jump in my opinion because our leaders in D.C. have done a stellar job in the past 8 days by doing more tests "than we have in the past 8 weeks". That's nothing to celebrate by the way. The multiplying, walking infected coupled with the upsurge in testing is likely to produce even greater increases in Covid-19 positive numbers very soon.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/mapping-spread-new-coronavirus/

The 1st step is to see the rate of change decrease. You aren’t going to see us go from rate of change increasing to suddenly a slow down in new cases.
 
No, because that's only one day's worth of data and it largely reflects NY not continuing the crazy case acceleration they've had, plus, in parallel, the rest of the states (other than WA which had the first major outbreak) have not been testing as aggressively as NY and are also behind NY in timing, so we're not seeing a true reflection of actual cases yet. Unfortunately, CA, TX, IL, OH, FL etc. will likely start taking off soon (NJ already is), unless there's a "spring miracle" (seasonality of the virus causing slowing of transmission as things warm up in April).

wxxvfe2.png

B6k0XyM.png

1. I get it is only 1 data point, but isn’t that one data point positive. If I told you that would be the result and you had a choice to keep it or throw it back and try your luck with a different result what would you do?

2. Regarding NY....isn’t that positive

3. Regarding testing. Wouldn’t you think testing is also on the increase which has a direct correlation to more positives? Do you think the rate of increase in testing is increasing or decreasing? I am not sure.

4. Obviously the March 21st number makes us pause as it doesn’t make sense.
 
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It's not quibbling and it's not silly. Read my post on this. We have 6.5X more people and we started testing much later than SK - and we are doing nowhere near as good as they did on tracing contacts and quarantining positives and their contacts, which is why we're about to have far more deaths and hospitalizations per capita than SK did - within a week or two we'll likely have 10X the amount of deaths per capita than SK (we're even now).
Yes it is. The poster said it was "totally false" that the US tested more people than SK. Then, as evidence, he pulls out a totally different metric.
 
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Careful you aren't allowed much positivity in this thread
Show me something positive about the outbreak in the US and I'll applaud it. It's accelerating nearly everywhere and accelerating rapidly in about 8-10 states and we have a President who's talking about relaxing restrictions in <3 weeks, when we'll be reaching the peak case rates in many locations, which would be an historically bad decision and one which he can't really make, since the governors will laugh at him, but even the message is bad, as some people are going to likely take this less seriously because of that message.

We also are in danger of not supporting our states, like NY, who are approaching becoming overwhelmed with cases, without enough masks, gloves, beds, doctors, and of course the all-important ventilators. In addition, we're not doing that well on social distancing or case tracking/quarantining and I still can't believe the CDC is not recommending aggressive testing of people with mild symptoms or who were in contact with positive people, telling people with mild symptoms to self-quarantine at home, where other people usually live, especially when China showed that nearly 80% of transmissions were within the household.

CDC: Who should be tested
Not everyone needs to be tested for COVID-19. Here is some information that might help in making decisions about seeking care or testing.
  • Most people have mild illness and are able to recover at home.
  • There is no treatment specifically approved for this virus.
  • Testing results may be helpful to inform decision-making about who you come in contact with.
The biggest positive I see is great Pharma-FDA collaboration on testing "new" treatments (including repurposing old ones) and developing new treatments and preventatives, like antibody therapies and vaccines, but none of these efforts will help us in the critical next 3-4 weeks.

So tell me what's positive about what's going on with this outbreak in the US. I'm all ears.
 
Please define and please explain where you got your conclusion and the base line for your the word ridiculous. Interested to know the scale in your mind.
Hundreds of deaths per day in NYC at the peak.
 
#s.

we all know this is going to get much much much worse. You probably have made a guess of what the ultimate cases and deaths look like. Through out this process we will get data points showing whether we will over or under shoot. I’ll take the last data point and hope the next is only a slight increase in the amount of new cases. Hoping for better is unrealistic. Unfortunately that is all we got.
 
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Its irrelevant because if anything counters Numbers worst case narratives it needs to be corrected and dismissed. He even is turning on Birx

Ya know some of us can have hope and positivity its not against the law
 
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