im not necessarily talking about healthcare workers, I am talking about others going back and forth riding mass transit going back and forth from nyc to nj and LI
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
- Status
im not necessarily talking about healthcare workers, I am talking about others going back and forth riding mass transit going back and forth from nyc to nj and LI
There are zero places in this country that have tested enough to know which places are really pockets. We are still on the upswing everywhere. The height of irresponsibility by Trump right now.
Anyone going to work and commuting at this point has to be essential. I would think most employers have set up a wfh environment for their workers.
you dont know that, you dont know the infomation they have or what they have learned
the other option is shutting down the country for 6 months more
they may be basing this that people are not flooding the emergency rooms across the country...if people are not sick then what we may be finding out is there are alot of people having coronavirus without any symptoms or getting sick at all. You or I have no idea what information they have about testing. Birx said 92% of cases across the country are negative. If they open in say 2 weeks in parts of the country, these will be areas where simply there are no coronavirus cases going on.
Look people are going to die..as Trump said 50K from the flu, people die of car accidents everyday, Unfortunately at some point we need to plow through, isolate the senior citizens and concentrate on eradicating from the hotspots
Not really. Friend of mine was told by his company that, as long as the office building is open, they are expected to show up. Unless you have the virus, if you don't show up, you're fired. The office building he works in has a medical office in it, so itll never close.
Long, but worth a read from the Times. Basic premise is that we'll only turn back the virus with harsher/smarter steps than we've taken and it outlines what most of those steps were in the countries that have been successful, so far, in doing so, like China, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan - and it wonders whether our society can do what it takes. Below is the intro section to the article. Also if you just look at the section titles, below, it makes clear the areas of focus. Glad to see one of my favorites got a section: everyone should wear masks to prevent people who are infected from transmitting the virus (they work for that well, holding in coughs/sneezes/droplets), like they do in Asia.
Scientists must be heard...Stop transmission between cities...Stop transmission within cities...Fix the testing mess...Isolate the infected...Find the fevers...Trace the contacts...Make masks ubiquitous...Preserve vital services...Produce ventilators and oxygen...Retrofit hospitals...Decide when to close schools...Recruit volunteers...Prioritize the treatments...Find a vaccine...Reach out to other nations
Terrifying though the coronavirus may be, it can be turned back. China, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan have demonstrated that, with furious efforts, the contagion can be brought to heel. Whether they can keep it suppressed remains to be seen. But for the United States to repeat their successes will take extraordinary levels of coordination and money from the country’s leaders, and extraordinary levels of trust and cooperation from citizens. It will also require international partnerships in an interconnected world.
There is a chance to stop the coronavirus. This contagion has a weakness. Although there are incidents of rampant spread, as happened on the cruise ship Diamond Princess, the coronavirus more often infects clusters of family members, friends and work colleagues, said Dr. David L. Heymann, who chairs an expert panel advising the World Health Organization on emergencies.
No one is certain why the virus travels in this way, but experts see an opening nonetheless. “You can contain clusters,” Dr. Heymann said. “You need to identify and stop discrete outbreaks, and then do rigorous contact tracing.”
But doing so takes intelligent, rapidly adaptive work by health officials, and near-total cooperation from the populace. Containment becomes realistic only when Americans realize that working together is the only way to protect themselves and their loved ones.
In interviews with a dozen of the world’s leading experts on fighting epidemics, there was wide agreement on the steps that must be taken immediately.
Those experts included international public health officials who have fought AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, flu and Ebola; scientists and epidemiologists; and former health officials who led major American global health programs in both Republican and Democratic administrations.
Americans must be persuaded to stay home, they said, and a system put in place to isolate the infected and care for them outside the home. Travel restrictions should be extended, they said; productions of masks and ventilators must be accelerated, and testing problems must be resolved.
But tactics like forced isolation, school closings and pervasive GPS tracking of patients brought more divided reactions.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/coronavirus-restrictions-us.html
Scientists must be heard...Stop transmission between cities...Stop transmission within cities...Fix the testing mess...Isolate the infected...Find the fevers...Trace the contacts...Make masks ubiquitous...Preserve vital services...Produce ventilators and oxygen...Retrofit hospitals...Decide when to close schools...Recruit volunteers...Prioritize the treatments...Find a vaccine...Reach out to other nations
Terrifying though the coronavirus may be, it can be turned back. China, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan have demonstrated that, with furious efforts, the contagion can be brought to heel. Whether they can keep it suppressed remains to be seen. But for the United States to repeat their successes will take extraordinary levels of coordination and money from the country’s leaders, and extraordinary levels of trust and cooperation from citizens. It will also require international partnerships in an interconnected world.
There is a chance to stop the coronavirus. This contagion has a weakness. Although there are incidents of rampant spread, as happened on the cruise ship Diamond Princess, the coronavirus more often infects clusters of family members, friends and work colleagues, said Dr. David L. Heymann, who chairs an expert panel advising the World Health Organization on emergencies.
No one is certain why the virus travels in this way, but experts see an opening nonetheless. “You can contain clusters,” Dr. Heymann said. “You need to identify and stop discrete outbreaks, and then do rigorous contact tracing.”
But doing so takes intelligent, rapidly adaptive work by health officials, and near-total cooperation from the populace. Containment becomes realistic only when Americans realize that working together is the only way to protect themselves and their loved ones.
In interviews with a dozen of the world’s leading experts on fighting epidemics, there was wide agreement on the steps that must be taken immediately.
Those experts included international public health officials who have fought AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, flu and Ebola; scientists and epidemiologists; and former health officials who led major American global health programs in both Republican and Democratic administrations.
Americans must be persuaded to stay home, they said, and a system put in place to isolate the infected and care for them outside the home. Travel restrictions should be extended, they said; productions of masks and ventilators must be accelerated, and testing problems must be resolved.
But tactics like forced isolation, school closings and pervasive GPS tracking of patients brought more divided reactions.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/coronavirus-restrictions-us.html
Get a grip. The testing numbers are readily available to anyone and they paint a very clear picture. There is no magic data behind the scenes. Dr. Fauci's absence is deafening.
Hopefully the governors are a bit more responsible.
She mentioned what I've said I've read when you talk about mortality estimates be they low or high or percentage of population infected/exposed (40-80%)...she said that's over 2-3 cycles as in over years not just this spring or just this year even and also if you do nothing.
Because it's a waste of efforts / resources / attention. Because the benefit of the few people that are still crossing state lines probably is greater than increments infection risks. Because the virus is already in NJ anyways so it's not like this is a new risk. It's a silly idea that will have zero benefit.
there are likely thousands who have it who will never be tested and if they are staying in and not getting they are not giving it to anyone,remember we still have at least a week to go, I bet it goes another week after that. If people were staying in then that would have been 3 weeks of social distancing.
then really no one should complain about the rest of the country going back to business
I've said I don't know if the 40-80% numbers were going to come true but I've never found them to be wild estimates. But I've read these are numbers that get reached, if they do at all, over some time period like 2-3 years. Just like the shelter in place and lockdown terms, no one looks beyond the headline into the finer details. 40-80% doesn't happen all this spring or even all this year and that's what people assume when they hear it...whatever the numbers are they usually are estimates for a time period of around 2-3 years.
and the models take into consideration no self awareness going forward which obviously people have now...when people start going out again, people are likely to be practicing different types of behavior...also the fear mongers want to say the vaccine is 18 months away but the more optimistic say it could be 9 months...these kinds of things just blow the models up.
There is no evidence from anywhere else in the world that 3 weeks is enough. When the number of confirmed cases starts to decrease, only then should we be planning to open back up.
Our federal and local governments are now sending completely opposite messages to the public. Our congress is playing games in a time of crisis. Total failure by our government.
Ugh I just heard that Virginia canceled school for the rest of the year. That means NJ can't be far behind. Looks like I'll be teaching first grade for the foreseeable future.
Birx talked on how each area of the country is following their own curve.....Washington is starting to get a handle on things....they are at least two weeks ahead of NYC right now., Each part of the country is facing a different situation. I think we get two weeks of extension after the first 15 day period, that is a full month, alot of data in at that time, no NYC and NJ will still be under severe restriction but Iowa and Idaho will not nor should they
In case anyone is wondering what happens if we follow the path of Italy, read on. My guess continues to be that we will on total infections per capita, but I think we'll be a fair amount lower on deaths, due to being a younger country and not having multigenerational families together (75-80% of infections in China occurred in family clusters and far more of our older people live in nursing homes or on their own).
Anyway, there are 35K flu deaths in a typical year in the US in ~325MM people. Italy has had ~6000 deaths out of 64,000 positive cases (9.5% mortality rate) in ~60MM people over the last 2 weeks, which would be equivalent to 33K deaths in the US over 2 weeks or just about a whole flu season's deaths in 2 weeks, if we had the same stats as them. Extend that out over a whole 16 week "season" (if CV2 is seasonal, which we don't know for sure) and that's 265K CV2 deaths in 16 weeks in the US. Also, keep in mind the case fatality rate is now artificially low in the US (1.3% with 545 deaths in 43K cases) due to very aggressive testing in NY, especially, to identify cases (the NY death rate is about 0.7%, combined with the 3+ weeks from infection to death in most cases, meaning the deaths per day are likely to increase, as most of our infections are new.
More granularly, the Lombardy region has seen almost 4000 deaths in that same period in a population of about 10MM in 2 weeks, which would be 32K deaths in 16 weeks, while NYC/Jersey City/Southern Westchester has 12MM people, so if a similar mortality rate, would also see over 32K deaths in 16 weeks.
That's what is scaring epidemiologists, even though Italy has an older population with about a 7X greater mortality rate, so far, and this may just be a 2-3 week peak that dies down, but we simply don't know that outcome yet (Itay's death rate seems to have leveled off, which is good, but we haven't seen a decline yet), since we don't know how close we're going to come to Italy. And maybe we only come close to Italy in densely populated areas like NYC and maybe urban NE NJ/SE NY/LI (and SF, LA, Chicago, etc.), as I said over a week ago in the post aboveor maybe it's just spreading faster in those densely populated areas, but will still hit many other cities and locations pretty hard, too, but later.
By the way, NJ is now 2nd in cases, by the way with 2844, passing WA/CA, with 27 deaths, so far (about a 1% rate); like NY, our rates are jumping fast because we're finally testing at a high rate, which is needed to gather the data we need to get our arms around the outbreak. This is why even if the border were closed, it likely wouldn't do much good, as we already have rampant spread in the community, plus the number of people commuting is way down anyway now. And closing the borders would likely lead to panic and people fleeing NYC, further spreading the virus.
What we need is people really following social distancing, a continued ramp up in testing and tracing/quarantining contacts of positives, the Feds taking over allocation of medical supplies to the states and helping retrofit additional hospitals for hotspots, continued creativity in clinical trials, conducting some antibody studies to see who has been infected in the general population and don't know it. What if 20, 30 or 50% of the population has the antibodies and can't now be infected (slowing transmission) and could go about life without any concern?
That would make all the worst case scenarios much less likely, even though we'd still need to get through this exponential growth phase and try to flatten it (with much better social distancing, testing, tracing and quarantining of positives and their contacts) so as to not overwhelm folks on the front lines. And by installing a much larger testing/tracking system and a much larger health care system infrastructure in places at risk, we'd then be in a much better position for any future flare ups, which will likely come when we eventually back off on the controls in place.
Of course, at some point, especially if we still have hotspots in maybe a month or so, we may have to go to a plan of very aggressive quarantining/protection of those over 60 or so and those with underlying conditions (and have them be first eligible for new medical treatments if we see some success, especially antibody therapy) and let most other folks go back to work with some possible exceptions at some point, but not after "Day 15" in a week, but also not in 2 more months, as getting people back to work is critical. I still think it would be foolish to start allowing medium to large public events again and I'm not sure about allowing bars/restaurants to reopen.
The flip side is I honestly think we would have been much better served with a 21-day absolute lockdown of everyone in the country, except for seriously essential workers (utilities, pharmacies, food stores, gas stations maybe) instead of these piecemeal and incremental efforts, but I know that would've been very hard to do.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
https://www.state.nj.us/health/cd/topics/covid2019_dashboard.shtml
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html.
I hope President Trump reconsiders.
It will be a total disaster if we loosen restrictions or let out guard down.
STOP the spread with all of our might now.
If we don't, we will lose a massive amount of life that could have been saved.
It will be a total disaster if we loosen restrictions or let out guard down.
STOP the spread with all of our might now.
If we don't, we will lose a massive amount of life that could have been saved.
How can you yell that the NYC-NJ border needs to be closed and post this a couple hours later?!
smh.
I've been discounting 70% for awhile (based on the Diamond Princess), but the problem is, without interventions, even the 20% infection rate seen on Diamond Princess with about a 1% mortality rate, would lead to about 10X more deaths and even more serious hospitalizations vs. an average flu season, which I doubt would be acceptable.
However, the DP data saw all of the deaths in people over 70, so it's possible if projected to a "normal" population, the real mortality rate might be somewhat lower than 1% as some have suggested. There is some point where being just X above seasonal flu would probably become "acceptable" vs. shutting down much of the economy. Not sure where that is...
she really emphasized about it effecting the eldery and pre existing...I think going forward we really protect the eldery and cut them off from going out this summer.
because i still feel nyc and nj border needs to be closed......we are the hotspot, we need to keep it from spreading out....what could be monitored and contained in say Iowa or Nebraska is quite different than here.
In case not posted, yet, the WHO is launching a 4-pronged mega-trial now, which is great to hear...
Scientists have suggested dozens of existing compounds for testing, but WHO is focusing on what it says are the four most promising therapies: an experimental antiviral compound called remdesivir; the malaria medications chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine; a combination of two HIV drugs, lopinavir and ritonavir; and that same combination plus interferon-beta, an immune system messenger that can help cripple viruses. Some data on their use in COVID-19 patients have already emerged—the HIV combo failed in a small study in China—but WHO believes a large trial with a greater variety of patients is warranted.
Enrolling subjects in SOLIDARITY will be easy. When a person with a confirmed case of COVID-19 is deemed eligible, the physician can enter the patient’s data into a WHO website, including any underlying condition that could change the course of the disease, such as diabetes or HIV infection. The participant has to sign an informed consent form that is scanned and sent to WHO electronically. After the physician states which drugs are available at his or her hospital, the website will randomize the patient to one of the drugs available or to the local standard care for COVID-19.
“After that, no more measurements or documentation are required,” says Ana Maria Henao Restrepo, a medical officer at WHO’s Department of Immunization Vaccines and Biologicals. Physicians will record the day the patient left the hospital or died, the duration of the hospital stay, and whether the patient required oxygen or ventilation, she says. “That’s all.”
The design is not double-blind, the gold standard in medical research, so there could be placebo effects from patients knowing they received a candidate drug. But WHO says it had to balance scientific rigor against speed. The idea for SOLIDARITY came up less than 2 weeks ago, Henao Restrepo says, and the agency hopes to have supporting documentation and data management centers set up next week. “We are doing this in record time,” she says.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...al-four-most-promising-coronavirus-treatments
Scientists have suggested dozens of existing compounds for testing, but WHO is focusing on what it says are the four most promising therapies: an experimental antiviral compound called remdesivir; the malaria medications chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine; a combination of two HIV drugs, lopinavir and ritonavir; and that same combination plus interferon-beta, an immune system messenger that can help cripple viruses. Some data on their use in COVID-19 patients have already emerged—the HIV combo failed in a small study in China—but WHO believes a large trial with a greater variety of patients is warranted.
Enrolling subjects in SOLIDARITY will be easy. When a person with a confirmed case of COVID-19 is deemed eligible, the physician can enter the patient’s data into a WHO website, including any underlying condition that could change the course of the disease, such as diabetes or HIV infection. The participant has to sign an informed consent form that is scanned and sent to WHO electronically. After the physician states which drugs are available at his or her hospital, the website will randomize the patient to one of the drugs available or to the local standard care for COVID-19.
“After that, no more measurements or documentation are required,” says Ana Maria Henao Restrepo, a medical officer at WHO’s Department of Immunization Vaccines and Biologicals. Physicians will record the day the patient left the hospital or died, the duration of the hospital stay, and whether the patient required oxygen or ventilation, she says. “That’s all.”
The design is not double-blind, the gold standard in medical research, so there could be placebo effects from patients knowing they received a candidate drug. But WHO says it had to balance scientific rigor against speed. The idea for SOLIDARITY came up less than 2 weeks ago, Henao Restrepo says, and the agency hopes to have supporting documentation and data management centers set up next week. “We are doing this in record time,” she says.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...al-four-most-promising-coronavirus-treatments
Virus lived up to 17 days on the cruise ship after passengers both symptomatic and asymptomatic left. Just around half the positive cases on the cruise ship were asymptomatic at the time of testing. Not sure if it was still active that far along though.
From the article:
The virus “was identified on a variety of surfaces in cabins of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected passengers up to 17 days after cabins were vacated on the Diamond Princess but before disinfection procedures had been conducted,” the researchers wrote, adding that the finding doesn’t necessarily mean the virus spread by surface.
The new study set out to determine how “transmission occurred across multiple voyages of several ships.” They noted that as of March 17, there were at least 25 cruise ship voyages with confirmed COVID-19 cases that were detected either during or after the cruise ended.
Almost half, 46.5%, of the infections aboard the Diamond Princess were asymptomatic when they were tested, partially explaining the “high attack rate” of the virus among passengers and crew.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/cdc...bins-up-to-17-days-after-passengers-left.html
From the article:
The virus “was identified on a variety of surfaces in cabins of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected passengers up to 17 days after cabins were vacated on the Diamond Princess but before disinfection procedures had been conducted,” the researchers wrote, adding that the finding doesn’t necessarily mean the virus spread by surface.
The new study set out to determine how “transmission occurred across multiple voyages of several ships.” They noted that as of March 17, there were at least 25 cruise ship voyages with confirmed COVID-19 cases that were detected either during or after the cruise ended.
Almost half, 46.5%, of the infections aboard the Diamond Princess were asymptomatic when they were tested, partially explaining the “high attack rate” of the virus among passengers and crew.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/cdc...bins-up-to-17-days-after-passengers-left.html
If you think we should be closing a state border than you should not be entertaining lifting the CDC recommendations in a week like Trump is going to try and push for by next weekend.
We are currently on the steep incline of cases and deaths in the NYC metro area and probably have another 7-14 days minimally to go until things have a chance of flattening. Hospitals are going to get crushed even more than they have been very shortly.
The virus is all over the country right now. Just because you’re not hearing about other “hot spots” yet doesn’t mean they aren’t out there. Given it another week and there will be a lot of other states and cities in bad shape.
We clearly need more than 1 more week of the CDC restrictions across the country. I’m not all about shutting down the economy for months but Trump needs to listen to the experts here and not do a half-ass shutdown or this will flare up again quickly.
I'd go hard on a full lock down until April 24
Snuff this insidious agent down a few notches
Snuff this insidious agent down a few notches
Is this the same WHO told the world on January 14th 2020 that the Chinese Flu wasn't transmitted person to person or another one?
i think you are missing something here....nj/nyc is our epicenter, it has to be closed, i see most and I think you are against this idea. Its going to take 2-3 months most likely in our area..prepare for that.
next I dont want anything lifted in this area....but yes in 2-3 weeks i see a relaxation in other parts of the country if they are not being hard hit as we would have had a full month of social distancing which will allow the virus to be contained in some places where it can be tracked by each state.
If you watch the vid from Dr Birx she explains a little
we shall see where we are at next week, the country will not survive if it entirely shut down after May 1.
And this is exactly why people who were clamoring for the Fed to make blanket orders for the entire country were wrong.
I thought you were saying we should be lifting restrictions by day 15 (about 7 days from now) which is what Trump would probably push to do based of today’s presser.
I think this week you’re going to see a lot of spikes in other areas of the country since it’s clearly been in the NY area for 3-4 weeks now and well before social distancing became a thing.
Isolating is gonna have to continue through the majority of April but agree at some point you have to loosen restrictions and let people start living, working and spending $. It sounds like a larger portion of the population may actually be asymptomatic which sucks you don’t know you have it or can pass it but also good because we could have a very large population who’ve built some immunity.
- Status
Similar threads
