It's not likely given what we've shown so far this year, but we are still somewhat alive for an at-large bid. Win 7 of the last 9 and that gets us to 19-14 regular season. Get 1 game in tournament for optics and we land at 20-15 having gone 10-3 over the back half of the season after we got Ogbole back and JWill was eligible. And, FWIW, it's the counter argument to last season when we were dinged for not being the same team without Mag.
Daily Tracking the NET: now 102
- Thread starter bac2therac
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Lol!! Would like to make NCAA squirm with that one.
Haha - I admit a little Friday afternoon dreaming.
With our luck, we would be snubbed again. When questioned, the committee chair will say, "You know, the discussion when Rutgers was left out last season made us reevaluate the criteria, and it really should be about your full body of work. In hindsight, that Rutgers team still had an overall body of work that deserved to be rewarded with a bid. We didn't want to see the same thing happen to (School X) this season, and that's why they got the benefit of the doubt this week and the last at-large spot this season - ironically, over Rutgers."
Even with that win I’m not sure their profile has at large potential regardless of their computer numbers. Their next best win is probably PSU. And they have a collection of pretty bad losses - Norfolk St., GW, McNeese all at home.
But NCAA loves VCU and wins alone may save them. And if numbers are decent….
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And Nevada beats San Diego State….
Good luck figuring out MWC.
MWC. 5 bids! Maybe 6?
BAC’s head will explode. ;-)
Good luck figuring out MWC.
MWC. 5 bids! Maybe 6?
BAC’s head will explode. ;-)
NCAAs? I don’t see it this year. Maybe the NIT is they win out except the road game at Dayton. They are currently in 4th place. Richmond would have a better argument than them and still not a good one. All of the A-10 teams have bad losses out of conference except Dayton.
Rutgers moved up 11 in Ken Pom 96 to 85
Our defense Efficiency changed by 1.1, 91.3 to 90.2, still 2nd to Houston
Offense Eff up 1 point as well, 285th now.
Torvik jumped 17 👍, 106 to 89
Tomorrow we will be in the 80s
Our defense Efficiency changed by 1.1, 91.3 to 90.2, still 2nd to Houston
Offense Eff up 1 point as well, 285th now.
Torvik jumped 17 👍, 106 to 89
Tomorrow we will be in the 80s
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15 to 21 was right, we jumped to 86
Q1 2-8 3 left, Go 2-1, Q2 3-1 3 left, Go 2-1
Q3 2-1 2 left, Go 2-0, Q4 6-0
That is our realistic path, 4-9 5-2 4-1, 3-10 6-1 4-1 is an option too, I think 19 is the magic number to hit. Split both road trips 1-1, win our home.
Who would have thought possible after Penn St knocked us down to 10-10
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The metrics are eating up these last 3 performances. Improved FT shooting, improved 2 point shooting and a hot game from 3.
The eye test folks. Playing well with confidence will solve a lot of problems in comparison to a lot of other teams.
A huge opportunity presents itself with 4 RAC games left. Have to convert those games and continue to push the tempo and look cohesive on both ends.
The road games are tough to navigate but if you want opportunities to raise your profile, you have 4 road games against teams ahead of RU in the standings. Purdue clearly is the game where RU will be double digit underdogs (Indiana was 18.5 point dog and lost by 20). RU will be getting a ton of points. The wins and losses are obviously important but RU needs margins as well.....home wins by 3 or more possessions (7+ points) and needs to stay in contact with Purdue in Mackey.
1st things 1st....get some rest and ready for Northwestern.
The eye test folks. Playing well with confidence will solve a lot of problems in comparison to a lot of other teams.
A huge opportunity presents itself with 4 RAC games left. Have to convert those games and continue to push the tempo and look cohesive on both ends.
The road games are tough to navigate but if you want opportunities to raise your profile, you have 4 road games against teams ahead of RU in the standings. Purdue clearly is the game where RU will be double digit underdogs (Indiana was 18.5 point dog and lost by 20). RU will be getting a ton of points. The wins and losses are obviously important but RU needs margins as well.....home wins by 3 or more possessions (7+ points) and needs to stay in contact with Purdue in Mackey.
1st things 1st....get some rest and ready for Northwestern.
Teams to keep an eye on...
Seton Hall at 67. Need them to stay 75 or better.
Maryland at 82. If they move up to 75 that becomes a Q1 road win.
Minnesota right ahead of us at 85. Same deal as Maryland (assuming we win there, which we need to or realistically this is all a moot point)
Win the next two vs NW, @Minny, and things start to get really interesting
Seton Hall at 67. Need them to stay 75 or better.
Maryland at 82. If they move up to 75 that becomes a Q1 road win.
Minnesota right ahead of us at 85. Same deal as Maryland (assuming we win there, which we need to or realistically this is all a moot point)
Win the next two vs NW, @Minny, and things start to get really interesting
BAC’s reviews will be interesting this year. The computer numbers seem to really overrate the lower portion of the BE. One win over North Carolina seems to have Villanova permanently parked in the top 50 and therefore in the bubble hunt despite hideous losses to Drexel and Penn (not to mention a home loss to St Joesthat is just as bad as our loss to PSU). The rest of what they have doesn’t come close to overcoming this - @ Creighton and TT (neutral) are nice sure but those are really bad losses to overcome with a total loss count at 11 already - 3 wins over sure field teams doesn’t seem close to enough to overcome that even with UNc. St John’s is the first team out right now in Lunardi’s bracket and a big part of their case would be a sweep of Nova. I don’t feel like our resume is as far behind the BE bubble pack when I glance at resumes despite the computer numbers.
But then look at the ACC and I start to worry more (assuming Lunardi’s brackets are a reasonable proxy for where things stand). Teams like 5-7 VTech, for example, aren’t even on his distant bubble at 13-10. VTech beat Iowa State on a neutral floor. They beat Boise (another likely field team) on a neutral floor. They also have a home win over Clemson. That’s 3 teams in the field. Sure Nova’s win collection is a little better, but VTech only has a road loss to ND. To me, despite the quad math, it seems like they should be right there with the BE bubblers right now. And unfortunately a good deal ahead of us for the moment win for win on the resume.
I know the quads and computer stuff don’t tell this story. As I said - will be interesting if we keep winning. I have a hard time getting excited about bracketology if we’re not in the mix.
Agree. Winning the next two games and Feb/March could have quite a bit of juice to it.
Winning those two games would put us in the top half of conference standings and within a game of being in the top 4, double bye position
Also when was the last time we would’ve won 5 conference games in a row?!
St. John’s — same thing. They have road wins @Utah, WVU and Nova. Beyond that they’re 2-6 in their last 8 and haven’t beaten a ranked team all year. 14-10 yet sitting solidly in the 40s on NET.
The implication of this thread is waaaaay too premature. We need to beat NW and then Minnesota in a clutch road game to credibly discuss being on the bubble.
they will need to go 5-2 for any realistic hope. They get 3 auto wins in Georgetown 2x and De Paul. Alot of bubble mediocrity to be sorted out in the Big East
Iowa's defense is so F'N BAD.
Ohio St drop 1 with a win and even if Iowa comes back they will drop a couple places win or lose. I don't see how Iowa or Ohio St stays above 75.
Can we replay the @ Ohio St and @ Iowa games with our current team?
Ohio St drop 1 with a win and even if Iowa comes back they will drop a couple places win or lose. I don't see how Iowa or Ohio St stays above 75.
Can we replay the @ Ohio St and @ Iowa games with our current team?
Seems like we need to root for Maryland and Minnesota for them to bump up a quad. Minnesota potential road win at Iowa right now
by the same token Iowa could end up falling to Q2 road game so....
Minnesota does have ncaa legs...distant, but some legs, a worse resume than RU
Iowa and Maryland have shot at a NCAA bid.
damned if you do damnded if you dont, with respect to Nebraska and Minnesota...need to win both but at the same time those losses would hurt those schools ncaa chances sort of devaluing our sweep of Nebby
So here is the question
Supposed we go 6-2 the remaining of the regular season to get to 11-9/19-12
How Will the committee look at the last 11 games with RU going 9-2, with all games against Quad 1 and Quad 2
Will they really look at positively this year like they looked at us negatively 3-7 without mag in the last 10 Last year???
Supposed we go 6-2 the remaining of the regular season to get to 11-9/19-12
How Will the committee look at the last 11 games with RU going 9-2, with all games against Quad 1 and Quad 2
Will they really look at positively this year like they looked at us negatively 3-7 without mag in the last 10 Last year???
It’s a weird situation. I think we would need our body of work to be in close striking distance of the other bubblers. If we do in fact get over that hump though, I have a feeling we would be seeded closer to what our team looks like with Jeremiah, Ogbole and Mag all available. Or at least somewhere in between. While 19-14 is unlikely to get us over that hump, even that record would mean we went 9-4 after we added a 14 ppg / 5 rpg starter. That probably wouldn’t be entirely dismissed in filling out a bracket. Not fair to other teams who would have to play us.
those arent all q2 games.michigan/maryland and perhaps ohio state will be Q3 games
19-14??.no & 9-2 after addition of JW, not 9-4... So 19-12 going into BTT. would need two, possibly one, to get to CBS Saturday. while most the NCAA at large spots are usually determined, before league tourney, getting to BTT semis might still push us over the edge.. also it would depend on how the 19-12 was reached. Northwestern would be the only game we could afford to lose at home, & would need to be countered by winning 3 of the 4 on the road..also not sure how trending would be weighed... Providence lost their last 3 games, including a 24 point shellacking by Seton Hall at home, and stole our #11 east seed at Greensboro..
RU stays at 86 but Seton Hall's ass whipping at Villanova drops them to 76. So for now that's no longer a quad 1 win for Rutgers.
Rutgers is now 1-8 in quad 1 games.
Rutgers is now 1-8 in quad 1 games.
The good news for us (at least I hope) is that the committee seemed to value Q3 wins last year more than we thought they would. If I’m remembering correctly, another thing called out following the snub besides us not looking the same post Mag injury, was the atrocious 12-14 record against Q1-Q3.
We’ve dug a hole with a 7-10 mark so far Q1-Q3 games. Am I right in thinking we need to bring this to 500 to have a realistic shot? 6-2 would do it, or alternatively, 5-3 / 2-1 ( BIG tourney). The conf tournaments don’t present the same opportunity as in regular season for marquis wins, but PSU’s run tells us they probably matter somewhat in terms of helping boost the bigger picture metrics.
I’m thinking that Q1-Q3 record is probably the most important baseline metric to keep an eye on for now. It’s the best proxy metric available for record in “real” games.
I hear you. It’s possible, but I think we’re going to end up needing that 500 record at minimum across Q1-Q3. 19-14 would put us at 13-14. The committee seems to completely disregard quad 4s unless you lose them. We’re not going to have the dazzling wins necessary to overcome a losing record in “real games”. Unfortunately - the committee isn’t going to just “assume” we would’ve won the games we lost (with JWilliams) to justify a bid. Seeding us would be a different story though if we can get in the conversation.
1-8 in quad 1 means no tourney. We need a ton to break right plus a lot of winning to get on the right side of the bubble.
RU needs to win at Wisconsin and Nebraska and beat Northwestern...that 2 Q1 wins and 1 Q2...I guess the Minnesota game on the road needs to happen 2 in Q1....honestly might need to go 7-1 because the Q3s at home will not move the needle.
very hard to make a case for RU going forward if they do not beat Northwestern unless you think RU is sweeping Purdue, Wisconsin, Nebraska on the road
RU has little margin of error.
Even if RU goes 6-2, with losses to Purdue and Nebraska, they only pick up a Q2 vs NW and say a Q1 at Wisconsin and a Q2 at Minny.....that puts us at 2-10/6-1...I know OSU is currently a Q2 at home but not sure that sticks....so 3 Q3 home wins which are mandatory. That Q1 mark is tough to overcome..need SHU back in top 75.
losing at Nebraska is not a bad loss at all but we need either one of Wisconin or Nebraska...if we get both its the golden ticket....7-1
Im just beginning to break down the field and may have something up tonight
Even if RU goes 6-2, with losses to Purdue and Nebraska, they only pick up a Q2 vs NW and say a Q1 at Wisconsin and a Q2 at Minny.....that puts us at 2-10/6-1...I know OSU is currently a Q2 at home but not sure that sticks....so 3 Q3 home wins which are mandatory. That Q1 mark is tough to overcome..need SHU back in top 75.
losing at Nebraska is not a bad loss at all but we need either one of Wisconin or Nebraska...if we get both its the golden ticket....7-1
Im just beginning to break down the field and may have something up tonight
Maryland (81) and even Minny (85) could both be Q1 road games by season end if they finish strong. Looking at their schedules I'd say that's far more likely for Maryland than Minny
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I know it depends on the rest of the field which varies year to year, but Boise State only had 3 quad 1 wins last season. None of them were anything special either. The committee didn’t just put them in the field at 23-9. They gave them an 8 seed.
Barring an unusually strong year on the bubble, don’t you think 20-13 would be good enough to get us in?
I would definitely help us if Georgetown could find a way to win a few home games coming up. against the BE bubblers.
I'm really surprised that fans are eating up this Q1, Q2, Q3 stuff, it's just a bunch of undocumented and moving targets that the committee can pick and choose from, to justify picking another undeserving selection.
The bottom line from last year had nothing to do with Q1, road wins or quality wins....the committee just broke protocol and picked 4 Mountain West teams and overseeded all of them. I know San Diego State made the Final, but no one believed for 1 second that the other 3 teams warranted seeding as high as they got.
This is not a seeding as indication of how safely in the tournament some team is. There is very little separation from a 8 seed to an 11 seed or 11 seed play-in candidate.
I am not guessing on what RU has or will do, all I know is the experts already writing certain teams into the field, aren't correct.
The bottom line from last year had nothing to do with Q1, road wins or quality wins....the committee just broke protocol and picked 4 Mountain West teams and overseeded all of them. I know San Diego State made the Final, but no one believed for 1 second that the other 3 teams warranted seeding as high as they got.
This is not a seeding as indication of how safely in the tournament some team is. There is very little separation from a 8 seed to an 11 seed or 11 seed play-in candidate.
I am not guessing on what RU has or will do, all I know is the experts already writing certain teams into the field, aren't correct.
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