Daily Tracking the NET: now 102
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
It’s not the win in this case that helps the resume , it’s the loss
A Thursday loss with a 11-9 record , is likely to a 10 seed , 11-14 winner or 12-13 winner …and would be a bad loss (maybe quad 3 on neutral site ). I could see A 11-9 record in rhe big ten with a first round loss in thar scanairo being a real net and resume smack
Conference tourney results don’t matter, unless you win it. The committee has the field picked on Friday before tourney is over. Essentially the committee has said they’re going off your regular season body of work, rightly or wrongly, I don’t make the rules, but they’ve said in the past the field is picked and then they’re just determining seeds, game matchups. A win on Thursday in the B1G conference tourney is near meaningless for a bubble team.
I think the NCAA committee has completely made comments each and every year to try and drive viewers towards the selection show and tournament...... but this whole notion that the conference tournament games don't matter is false......it's based on last year's comments to avoid the scrutiny of knowing they can pick any Mountain West team at any point, for whatever reason.
Each and every year, they move around the spin o Rama of 8 choices to choose and pick from, to explain away why bubble teams don't make it.....knowing that most bubble teams don't have all 8 bases covered.....most have 5 or maybe 6 covered and it's an easy way to say "it was this or that"....one year it's RU on the bubble, the next year it can be Oregon.....or Colorado......or Oklahoma State.......or Texas A&M....
Here's your spin on rama..Rama...
Road wins
Q1 & Q2 wins
Q3 & Q4 losses
Record in last 8 to 10 games
Winning record in league games
NET rating
OOC W/L record
SOS overall
The bottom line is a bunch of 18 win teams are going to be put together side by side and how the team plays over 30+ games overrides all of these individual categories.
Each and every year, they move around the spin o Rama of 8 choices to choose and pick from, to explain away why bubble teams don't make it.....knowing that most bubble teams don't have all 8 bases covered.....most have 5 or maybe 6 covered and it's an easy way to say "it was this or that"....one year it's RU on the bubble, the next year it can be Oregon.....or Colorado......or Oklahoma State.......or Texas A&M....
Here's your spin on rama..Rama...
Road wins
Q1 & Q2 wins
Q3 & Q4 losses
Record in last 8 to 10 games
Winning record in league games
NET rating
OOC W/L record
SOS overall
The bottom line is a bunch of 18 win teams are going to be put together side by side and how the team plays over 30+ games overrides all of these individual categories.
Seton Hall with a 78-72 win @ Butler will put them back above 75.
*Edit* #53 Wake 66-47 home win over #57 Virginia,
Wake(12-4) have won 10 of 11 including the win over Rutgers
As far as road games left easy to hardest
@ Michigan(home 3-4, best win Youngstown St)
@ Maryland(home 9-1, best win Michigan)
@ Minnesota(home 11-1, best win Nebraska)
@ Nebraska(home 11-1, wins over Purdue & Mich St)
@ Michigan St(home 8-2, losses Wisc, James Madison)
@ Wisconsin(home 9-1, loss Tennessee)
@ Purdue(home 9-0)
@ Illinois(home 9-1, loss Marquette)
I'd be happy with 3-4 wins, best case 5 if we play the way we did at Ohio St and at Iowa with less mistakes. We won @ Wisconsin last year after Mag's injury and matchup well since 2018-19, Purdue is another team Pike knows how to coach against since 2019-20, Illinois is our worst matchup for a few years now. I know we haven't won @ Michigan St yet, but they are a more winnable game than Purdue or Wisconsin.
*Edit* #53 Wake 66-47 home win over #57 Virginia,
Wake(12-4) have won 10 of 11 including the win over Rutgers
As far as road games left easy to hardest
@ Michigan(home 3-4, best win Youngstown St)
@ Maryland(home 9-1, best win Michigan)
@ Minnesota(home 11-1, best win Nebraska)
@ Nebraska(home 11-1, wins over Purdue & Mich St)
@ Michigan St(home 8-2, losses Wisc, James Madison)
@ Wisconsin(home 9-1, loss Tennessee)
@ Purdue(home 9-0)
@ Illinois(home 9-1, loss Marquette)
I'd be happy with 3-4 wins, best case 5 if we play the way we did at Ohio St and at Iowa with less mistakes. We won @ Wisconsin last year after Mag's injury and matchup well since 2018-19, Purdue is another team Pike knows how to coach against since 2019-20, Illinois is our worst matchup for a few years now. I know we haven't won @ Michigan St yet, but they are a more winnable game than Purdue or Wisconsin.
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sorry but its been proven the last 3 years that conference tourney performance does not matter...see schools making runs to finals and still not making it such as Texas A&M
record in last 8/10 games is not criteria at all
is their a cap on league schools...I think there is
A&M had no chance 2 years ago because they didn't have any quality wins, the SEC tournament didnt change that with the SEC down that year.
I don't see any chance the B1G doesn't land the typical 7 to 8 teams again this year. The rest of the conferences really aren't separating themselves, unless fans are going to buy into Cincinnati and BYU or UCF, because they're in the Big 12.
Big East seems like it's having a good year but tend to agree about the other conferences seeming to be down. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Have to agree with bac on conference tourneys not mattering, the committee definitely has its mind made up already before they even begin. Pretty obvious imo the last few years.
Glad you'd be happy with going .500 in the rest of the road B1G games. You may be very disappointed.
This is not about the Big Easr or SHU.....Seton Hall thought they had a quality neutral win by burying Missouri in Kansas City.....well, since then Missouri got destroyed by Illinois in St Louis and Missouri is about to fall to 8-8 & 0-3 in conference, with a home loss to South Carolina.....Missouri is down 3 in OT with a minute left
You do know they have a 4-6 record on the road the last 3 years, they will win at least 3-4 this year too. The only reason they don't have one already, they had 20-19 lead @ Ohio St,, drought, down 32-45 half, lose by 4 and Iowa down 19-5 to start and was playing catch-up the rest of the game, lose by 9. They avoid those droughts, they win games on the road like 20-21, 21-22 and 22-23. They will learn it this year too.
Wake jumped up 8, 53 to 45, 17pt win over Virginia
Bryant became a Q3, 171 to 149, 15 pt win @ New Hampshire
#171 St Peter's has a chance to hop into Q3 with road games @ Manhattan today and @ Fairfield Friday
Other big moves,
Butler drop 12, 50 to 62, due to SHU.
Xavier(8-8) big jump, 61 to 43, 20pt win @ Providence, 55 to 69
Texas(12-4) fell 15, 44 to 59, 3 pt loss @ WVU(6-10), 193 to 177
James Madison(14-2) fell 17, 46 to 63, 4pt home loss to App St(11-4), 80 to 73.
Butler drop 12, 50 to 62, due to SHU.
Xavier(8-8) big jump, 61 to 43, 20pt win @ Providence, 55 to 69
Texas(12-4) fell 15, 44 to 59, 3 pt loss @ WVU(6-10), 193 to 177
James Madison(14-2) fell 17, 46 to 63, 4pt home loss to App St(11-4), 80 to 73.
Yes , with the committee the last few years they have shown conference tournaments don’t matter. I don’t think they even watch them
But as the committee changes , the conference tournaments may matter again. Literally, it will just happen one year with them putting stock in it and no one will expect it.
@bac2therac - at what point does this NET tracking become academic only, and not meaningful for us?
Right now bart is projecting a 14-17 final record, and only has us favored in 3 more games (including Nebraska on Wednesday). If we drop that game, are we essentially fighting to make the NIT going forward?
Right now bart is projecting a 14-17 final record, and only has us favored in 3 more games (including Nebraska on Wednesday). If we drop that game, are we essentially fighting to make the NIT going forward?
well Im going to update everyday but realistically its over unless RU wins its next 2... Q2 win over Nebby and Q1 win at Illinois. Even with losses there I dont think the NET falls much more than around the 100 range
I guess RU needs 7 more wins to finish 16-15 to be NIT bubble, I believe that conference tourney regular season champs of low and mid majors are no longer extended nit bids if they do not win their conference tourney so there may be more spots open for the power 6 schools. I would think RU would then have to win a game or two in the Big 10 tourney to put them above 500 overall. I am having a hard time finding those wins but the 2nd half of the schedule is easier than the first half.
I guess RU needs 7 more wins to finish 16-15 to be NIT bubble, I believe that conference tourney regular season champs of low and mid majors are no longer extended nit bids if they do not win their conference tourney so there may be more spots open for the power 6 schools. I would think RU would then have to win a game or two in the Big 10 tourney to put them above 500 overall. I am having a hard time finding those wins but the 2nd half of the schedule is easier than the first half.
Purdue is whomping Indiana at Assembly. 51-29 at the half.
Xavier Johnson with another flagrant.
Xavier Johnson with another flagrant.
Wake Forest (12-4, 4-1) up 10 at the half at NC State (12-4, 4-1). NC State head coach ejected for standing on the court and arguing a no-call foul.
The problem with our Net is other teams we played are rising like Seton Hall (beat up on St. John’s tonight), Wake, Princeton, etc.. so this would normally be a good thing, but the problem comes in that we can’t really beat anyone. Too bad, as that Seton Hall road win may end up being a high quality win end of year, it’s a waste this year. If this team somehow finished above .500 and actually made the NIT, based upon how they’ve looked up to this point in the season, I would say they had a good year based upon where they stand right now.
I said the same thing when we hosted Indiana. They came in with a much better overall record and conference record, and they played higher ranked teams than we did. But I was told that all the ratings services had us rated higher. (Sure enough, we crushed them)
So now, we’re favored over Nebraska who has a much better overall and conference record, and is also more highly ranked by the ratings services (53 Net, 49 Kenpom, versus RU at 91 Net, 93 Kenpom).
So, I’m left scratching my head. (Unless Vegas has some insight that JWill and maybe Ogbole are playing tonight?)
I see why they are doing it. Vegas isnt sold on Nebraska and the Big 10 is tough to win on the road
To me this is a HUGE game for Nebraska. More pressure on them to win. If Nebby is legit, they go and beat a bottom 4 Big 10 school on the road. There is some doubt.
Sure but the question is, why isn’t Vegas sold on Nebraska?
Aren’t their metrics and composite ratings/ranking better than ours?
RU is favored by either 3 or 3.5. If we get 3 points for playing at home, that means Vegas thinks we’re even on a neutral court. What is it that’s supporting that conclusion?
(I’m not actually asking you, just thinking out loud)
St. John's had a 28-0 drought last night at Seton Hall, all teams go through droughts or inability to hit a shot in every game for short stretches, you just cant let it go on too long that you can't come back from.
Everyone is referring to them as a "bad team", we have lost 7 games to the top50 NET, half of our 16 games were vs Q1 opponents(1-7) with a team that has yet to gel.
Vs #16 Illinois 58-76, @ #20 Michigan St 55-73
@ #46 Wake 57-76, N #31 Princeton 61-68
N #33 Miss St 60-70, @ #48 Iowa 77-86
@ #50 Ohio St 72-76, W @ #58 Seton Hall 70-63
4 of them on the road, 2 neutral, 3 of them we let get away from us
Illinois 2 droughts 1 each half, came back to get it close end of 1st half
Wake 2 droughts 1 each half, came back to get it close end of 1st half
Michigan St 1 drought 2nd half
Princeton was back and forth all game
Miss St wasn't a drought, 29-29 half to 45-60(Miss St 31-16 run)
Ohio St 1 drought end of 1st half, came back 66-67, lost by 4
Iowa 1 drought started down 19-5, Iowa had answers to every small run
5 out of 7 losses were drought related. They will grow out of this eventually and maybe peak at the right time into February and March. This without a go to scorer, Cliff and the guards struggling along the way and Gavin struggling to adjust to the college game. This will get turned around, Coach Izzo sees the progress on film.
Again the bullshit with Seton Hall. They demolish St. John’s Net 32 to their 66. They were up 28 and 20 plus most of second half and St. John’s scores last 5 points to lose by 15 not 20. But if game control is not part of the NET then it should be. Other teams go up 10-16 with that win at home and 16-22 on the road. Seton Hall only 8. That NET formula needs tweaking.
Unless we get it in gear starting tonight against Nebraska , it will not matter . But our 1-7 Quad 1 , with no Quad 2 games so far and perfect Quad 3 and 4 , is not as terrible as it looks , 4 road , 2 neutral, 1 home in the losses and a road win .
Because N is 0-3 in B1G away games, losing by 11, 16 and 18 points.
Makes sense. The caveat to that is we’ve lost all our B1G road games too, AND we lost by 18 points at home to #16 Illinois (they might have been #10 at the time), while they beat #2 Purdue by 16 points at home, and they haven’t lost any B1G home games yet, just as a point of comparison to RU, as far as determining which team is better.
Since we have nearly the most putrid offense in Div 1, for us to be favored against a better Nebraska team means prognosticators are giving our defense a huge advantage in this game (in addition to our home court advantage).
Since we are playing at home, I don’t think Vegas cares too much about our road record I. Setting the line for this game.
Understood. My point was that we already have a home loss in the B1G (by comparison Nebraska does not).
I could better understand us being favored if we were undefeated at home.
