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Defense Up to #2 on kenpom and bart

I mean - we’re bad from 2 but we’re definitely worse from 3. The percentages don’t reflect all the shooting foul calls we’ve drawn on missed 2 pointers wiped from the statistics.
Ranking wise we are similar and the fouling impacts would be the case for all teams.

The league wide 2-pt% is 50.3% so 1.006 pps. The league wide 3-pt% is 33.7% to 1.011 pps.
We are 43.9% / 0.878 and 27.8% / 0.834. So yes relatively worse at 3s. But not by THAT much, certainly (I don't think) enough to support extreme strategy modifications. If anything we should just take somewhat less threes than most teams, and we actually are #302 in percentage of attempts that are threes.
 
I mean - we’re bad from 2 but we’re definitely worse from 3. The percentages don’t reflect all the shooting foul calls we’ve drawn on missed 2 pointers wiped from the statistics.
I'd like to say or the extra OREB from missed 3s as opposed to 2s, but we brick so much I don't know if there is any difference.
 
Ranking wise we are similar and the fouling impacts would be the case for all teams.

The league wide 2-pt% is 50.3% so 1.006 pps. The league wide 3-pt% is 33.7% to 1.011 pps.
We are 43.9% / 0.878 and 27.8% / 0.834. So yes relatively worse at 3s. But not by THAT much, certainly (I don't think) enough to support extreme strategy modifications. If anything we should just take somewhat less threes than most teams, and we actually are #302 in percentage of attempts that are threes.
I know we are real bad shooting team, but that bad! There has to be some correlation between the effort we put on D and those shooting percentages.
 
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I've been trying to convince people of this for ages but there are some on the board who actually don't agree!
not exactly....you need to include 'moral victories' and Vegas covers, especially for Schiano's teams. In that light, he's nearly undefeated and therefore deserves a lifetime contract and giant, gilded statues.
 
It would also depend on how you would perform against alternate defensive strategies; the breaking point for actually not attempting threes would require a completely uncontested three to be less efficient for you than very contested twos.

I hear you - but I still think there is some breakpoint and I’m thinking about it more player specific than as an actual “let’s not take any 3s at all” strategy. Cliff’s stats clearly say he shouldn’t take 3s even when he’s open. At what point do we get there with some of the other guys?
 
I hear you - but I still think there is some breakpoint and I’m thinking about it more player specific than as an actual “let’s not take any 3s at all” strategy. Cliff’s stats clearly say he shouldn’t take 3s even when he’s open. At what point do we get there with some of the other guys?
But that would again depend on the other players on the team.. if you individually decide each player on the team can't take a three then you've decided the team as a whole can't take them. If you have a team of bad three point shooters you're going to have to let the better of them shoot anyway.

I also don't really believe this team is a 27.8% three point shooting team because that seems almost impossibly bad for a team of division I basketball players. By contrast I believe the 2 point percentage much more because a huge part of it seems to be shot selection issues. I'd still rather have an open three from Simpson / Davis / Gavin / Noah than a stepback midrange or hopeless drive into the trees and it would take a LONG time of bricking threes before I would change my mind.
 
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Ranking wise we are similar and the fouling impacts would be the case for all teams.

The league wide 2-pt% is 50.3% so 1.006 pps. The league wide 3-pt% is 33.7% to 1.011 pps.
We are 43.9% / 0.878 and 27.8% / 0.834. So yes relatively worse at 3s. But not by THAT much, certainly (I don't think) enough to support extreme strategy modifications. If anything we should just take somewhat less threes than most teams, and we actually are #302 in percentage of attempts that are threes.


Why the relative comparison to other teams and not to ourselves? Clearly our offense stinks regardless compared to opponents. The thought here is taking many of our players individually and looking at them - that stats probably say that most of them (except Hyatt I’d guess) put up more effective points off of 2 point attempts than 3s. Some guys drastically so. Simpson’s numbers look closer until you consider all the fouls he’s drawn off 2s - especially being that he’s so good from the line.
 
But that would again depend on the other players on the team.. if you individually decide each player on the team can't take a three then you've decided the team as a whole can't take them. If you have a team of bad three point shooters you're going to have to let the better of them shoot anyway.

I also don't really believe this team is a 27.8% three point shooting team because that seems almost impossibly bad for a team of division I basketball players. By contrast I believe the 2 point percentage much more because a huge part of it seems to be shot selection issues. I'd still rather have an open three from Simpson / Davis / Gavin / Noah than a stepback midrange or hopeless drive into the trees and it would take a LONG time of bricking threes before I would change my mind.
That last point may well be the case. I sure hope so. Every time I think we can’t get worse from 3 though we have again shot below our season average. It’s mind boggling.
 
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Why the relative comparison to other teams and not to ourselves?
No it *should* be comparison to ourselves, but I put up the normal team numbers there as a point of comparison. If we had the same balance as them presumably we would have a similar optimal strategy to them.
Clearly our offense stinks regardless compared to opponents. The thought here is taking many of our players individually and looking at them - that stats probably say that most of them (except Hyatt I’d guess) put up more effective points off of 2 point attempts than 3s. Some guys drastically so. Simpson’s numbers look closer until you consider all the fouls he’s drawn off 2s - especially being that he’s so good from the line.
My issue is that you keep ignoring the defensive adjustment. Teams play fairly normal defensive strategy against us as far as I can tell. Game theory assumes the opponent will know our new strategy and counter it; if they focus on only defending inside the arc our 2p% would go way down and our possible 3p% would go up.
 
Since Jan 1 we are #84 in DREB% and #65 in OREB%. Pre-Jan 1 we were #325 in DREB% and #144 in OREB%. It's an astonishing turnaround and a great counter to people who claim that Pike does not coach / develop players.
Wow. That’s even more of an improvement than I imagined. Incredible.
 
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My hope is with Jeremiah in the fold 2 things happen....
1. The ball moves more leading to better 3 pt chances
2. An extra body reduces minutes for everyone and we are fresher.

This could be a reach because this is only a small component. Last night drove me crazy to see a possession where we got the ball low to Woolfolk and there were no perimeter players he could kick it out to. Hyatt was in the center and didn't move 15 feet to his right to give Woolfolk someone to pass to and for their to be a potential 3 pt opportunity.
 
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I know we are real bad shooting team, but that bad! There has to be some correlation between the effort we put on D and those shooting percentages.
Interesting. I'd think about it both in terms of energy expended by the players on D (and rebounding), but also the focus of the coaching and practice time. The D and rebounding have improved a lot, including the play of some specific players, over the course of the year.
 
Interesting. I'd think about it both in terms of energy expended by the players on D (and rebounding), but also the focus of the coaching and practice time. The D and rebounding have improved a lot, including the play of some specific players, over the course of the year.
I think there is a lot to shooting and where your energy/heart rate is at. Many fans say they are 18-22 years old blah blah blah, but they are all human. There is a reason all players wear monitors in their shorts. The data is used for something.

I know for sure as your heart rate is higher your shooting percentages go lower. Our program does not play D like most others. There is a cost to it. Next year is going to be very very very interesting.
 
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I won't over analyze - but clearly JWill makes Mag better who makes Simpson better who makes Cliff better.

it has been fun to watch it come together over the last 2 games --- one more step forward and we can talk some sort of actual run to some sort of post-season. But, at least, it's gotten interesting - which is always fun.
 
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Since Jan 1 we are #84 in DREB% and #65 in OREB%. Pre-Jan 1 we were #325 in DREB% and #144 in OREB%. It's an astonishing turnaround and a great counter to people who claim that Pike does not coach / develop players.
How much of a difference does the addition of a healthy Mag and JWill make in these numbers (are the numbers drastically different in part because these players and now in and fully healthy)?
 
I think there is a lot to shooting and where your energy/heart rate is at. Many fans say they are 18-22 years old blah blah blah, but they are all human. There is a reason all players wear monitors in their shorts. The data is used for something.

I know for sure as your heart rate is higher your shooting percentages go lower. Our program does not play D like most others. There is a cost to it. Next year is going to be very very very interesting.
Interesting.
 
I seem to recall somewhere reading that some of the high level recruits cited Pike's ability to teach D as one of the reasons they committed. As in, they were already good at O from years of AAU ball or whatever...But now they wanted to become complete players to prepare for the NBA by learning how to play real D.
 
Simpson is a hell of a defender as well and pound for pound the best rebounder on the team but people love to criticize him. Similarly, the same people tore apart Caleb.
McConnell had a significantly more effective shooting percentage and people hateddd Caleb for taking shots.... but some think Simpson's shooting isn't a problem when it's been a lot worse
 
Since Jan 1 we are #84 in DREB% and #65 in OREB%. Pre-Jan 1 we were #325 in DREB% and #144 in OREB%. It's an astonishing turnaround and a great counter to people who claim that Pike does not coach / develop players
Insane turnaround. Someone send these stats to Eddie can't teach rebounding Jordan

And the beginning includes all the cupcakes! It's insane.
Exactly. Wild
 
McConnell had a significantly more effective shooting percentage and people hateddd Caleb for taking shots.... but some think Simpson's shooting isn't a problem when it's been a lot worse
Fair point. But also take into account that in part this was because we had better options for most of Caleb's time here.
 
I watched mag get crushed to floor and n9 foul called then on the other side of the court they call a ticky tacky foul on us. The cliff foul from a the far away ref was when I said the fix has to be in.

You’re spot on

Mag gets crushed = no call then ticky tack on us seconds later

Cliffs last foul call - waaaay late from furthest ref on court after RU secured rebound was …. don’t know any other word than “suspect” I really don’t
 
images
 
I think there is a lot to shooting and where your energy/heart rate is at. Many fans say they are 18-22 years old blah blah blah, but they are all human. There is a reason all players wear monitors in their shorts. The data is used for something.

I know for sure as your heart rate is higher your shooting percentages go lower. Our program does not play D like most others. There is a cost to it. Next year is going to be very very very interesting.

How much of a difference does the addition of a healthy Mag and JWill make in these numbers (are the numbers drastically different in part because these players and now in and fully healthy)?
Huge difference I'd assume. But we also had a lot of freshmen logging major minutes, and new transfers that haven't been coached by Pike before. It's logical to expect that a coach famous for teaching D and rebounding would have an impact on them over the course of the season.
 
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How much of a difference does the addition of a healthy Mag and JWill make in these numbers (are the numbers drastically different in part because these players and now in and fully healthy)?
Mag helped for sure. JWill hasn't had much impact yet since he's only played two games. And the turnaround started well before he came back.
 
No it *should* be comparison to ourselves, but I put up the normal team numbers there as a point of comparison. If we had the same balance as them presumably we would have a similar optimal strategy to them.

My issue is that you keep ignoring the defensive adjustment. Teams play fairly normal defensive strategy against us as far as I can tell. Game theory assumes the opponent will know our new strategy and counter it; if they focus on only defending inside the arc our 2p% would go way down and our possible 3p% would go up.

Nah I’m not ignoring it. I wasn’t really trying to suggest we should deploy a deliberate strategy to “never” attempt any 3s. An occasional attempt to keep the D honest is fine. I’m fine even with Hyatt taking a few more of them than the others - our 31.7% “sharp shooter”. What I can’t see is an argument that we should be looking to find more open looks from the outside vs. taking other shots. Teams give us plenty of space. Very few of our attempts are contested - they just don’t go in.
 
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My hope is with Jeremiah in the fold 2 things happen....
1. The ball moves more leading to better 3 pt chances
2. An extra body reduces minutes for everyone and we are fresher.

This could be a reach because this is only a small component. Last night drove me crazy to see a possession where we got the ball low to Woolfolk and there were no perimeter players he could kick it out to. Hyatt was in the center and didn't move 15 feet to his right to give Woolfolk someone to pass to and for their to be a potential 3 pt opportunity.
On 1 - The problem with 3s (outside of maybe opportunities for Hyatt) isn’t that we’re not able to get open. Simpson and Mag’s misses are typically when wide open. Teams are daring them to shoot those. JMike too. Gavin is the only one who is forcing bad shots and it’s not so much because he can’t get open - it’s that he seems to be programmed to shoot as soon as he gets the ball - like the one from 4 feet beyond the 3 point line.

My hope is for an improved shooting percentage on lay ups because J William’s seems to be able to mix up the pace of play to create openings for other guys. His pass to Simpson on the deep wing for the lay up (Simpson’s first basket) did not get credited for an assist because Simpson took too many dribbles to meet the statistical definition but that lane was made possible based on the speed of William’s decision - that pass reached Simpson with enough time to drive the lane uncontested.
 
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Nah I’m not ignoring it. I wasn’t really trying to suggest we should deploy a deliberate strategy to “never” attempt any 3s. An occasional attempt to keep the D honest is fine. I’m fine even with Hyatt taking a few more of them than the others - our 31.7% “sharp shooter”. What I can’t see is an argument that we should be looking to find more open looks from the outside vs. taking other shots. Teams give us plenty of space. Very few of our attempts are contested - they just don’t go in.
Does any team have a worse best 3 point shooter?

31.7% being your best 3 point shooter is crazy low
 
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Does any team have a worse best 3 point shooter?
I doubt it. technically some will say Austin Williams is our best but he’s only attempted 14 of them (made 5) and is 29.5% for his career. Jeremiah is 2-4 for us but 27.6% for his career. We are historically bad from the outside.
 
The best three point shooter on our team is probably either Noah Fernandes or.. Gavin Griffiths.
 
My 9 year olds combined to go 2 of 8 from long range last club game. They each made one. They’d fit right in.
3 point shooting has jumped the shark when 9 year old girls are making them.

Our game is permanently ruined.

After watching RU beat MD I quickly switched to the Devils. Sad that I am getting as much enjoyment out of a regular season Devils win than a road B1G win.
 
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