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Defense Up to #2 on kenpom and bart

We could be if we just……..
……
…….
Made lay-ups!!!!!

If we made lay ups Carl!!!! (Walking dead Carl/rick meme)
We actually did a good job making them second half I think? Missed at least 3 easy ones first half
 
In the history of advanced metrics, there cannot have been another team that was so good on defense (#2) while being so bad on offense (#300).

How is that even possible?
We do have the worst offense ranking of any team with a top 10 defense in the kenpom era. However there are more of these kinds of teams than you might think in general:

Year Team Offense Defense
2002 Saint Louis #244 #10
2005 Washington St. #264 #1
2006 Washington St. #255 #8
2009 Stephen F. Austin #268 #9
2010 USC #267 #1
2013 Stephen F. Austin #215 #10
2017 Georgia Tech #259 #6
2018 UCF #281 #8
2020 Virginia #234 #1
2020 Memphis #210 #5
2022 VCU #209 #7

Criteria Offense >200 Defense <= 10

Honorable mention to current Maryland at #193 #6
 
We actually did a good job making them second half I think? Missed at least 3 easy ones first half
our layups def started falling last couple of games but if they were going in all season we are easily a top 150-200 offense.
 
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The last two games we actually had adjusted offensive efficiencies BELOW our season average. We haven't been over 100 since Nebraska. The defense hasn't been over 100 since Wake Forest on 12/6/23 (the only time all season)
 
The last two games we actually had adjusted offensive efficiencies BELOW our season average. We haven't been over 100 since Nebraska. The defense hasn't been over 100 since Wake Forest on 12/6/23 (the only time all season)
Our offense was sh!t again tonight. It is a big ask to expect the D to be this good everynight.
 
Our offense was sh!t again tonight. It is a big ask to expect the D to be this good everynight.
Yes! If we had the 175th best offense in the country, we’d be a solid 8/9 seed projection in the tournament right now.

We don’t though, so here we are.
 
Willard says Mag is the best defensive player in the country post game.

Supports my thought that he was actually defending better than Caleb last year before he got hurt ;)
I feel like Caleb is more lockdown than Mag is, at least on non-very small guards. But Mag is a different level in a team sense and is an incredible rebounder as well. And I’d argue he’s still learning the game and becoming more impactful each and every night
 
Defense isn't everything. In 1989-1990, Loyola Marymount conceded 108 points per game and made the Elite 8, helped by an offense that put up 120. LMU scored 90+ every game, and 100+ in all but three games.
 
Defense isn't everything. In 1989-1990, Loyola Marymount conceded 108 points per game and made the Elite 8, helped by an offense that put up 120. LMU scored 90+ every game, and 100+ in all but three games.
My understanding is that to win a game, the sum of your offense and defense has to be better than the sum of the other team’s offense and defense. Apparently this is measured by the number of points each team scores.
 
In the history of advanced metrics, there cannot have been another team that was so good on defense (#2) while being so bad on offense (#300).

How is that even possible?
It is the endless mindless turnovers that never give us a chance and against good teams we cannot overcome. The last 2 first halves against Michigan and Maryland we have 10 and 12 first half turnovers , which kills the efficiency and makes it 300 in the country. Most of the turnovers not all but almost a great amount of them are unforced. We have to play smarter.
Now one of our guys can do the offensive efficiency numbers in the last 2 second halves. Gotta believe they are in the 160 range which would be a huge difference if we can stop turning over the ball. Combined with the defense to go from 11 to 2 in the last 10 days , just an average offense gives us a chance. Almost impossible but we just won 2 road games hitting only 3 three pointers in each game. Defies logic.
 
I wonder if we're poised to break out a bit on offense, though. Did anyone else notice that Cliff's 4 FGs only include one dunk along with two nice post moves finishing off glass and a 16-foot swish of a jumper? And I think 3 of Gavin's 4 trey attempts were so close to being in - I know he's better than a 27% shooter from there. Plus with JWill and Simpson getting most of the guard time, I think we're going to be getting better shots or at least I hope we are. And Mag's been heating up too.
 
My understanding is that to win a game, the sum of your offense and defense has to be better than the sum of the other team’s offense and defense. Apparently this is measured by the number of points each team scores.
I've been trying to convince people of this for ages but there are some on the board who actually don't agree!
 
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It is the endless mindless turnovers that never give us a chance and against good teams we cannot overcome. The last 2 first halves against Michigan and Maryland we have 10 and 12 first half turnovers , which kills the efficiency and makes it 300 in the country. Most of the turnovers not all but almost a great amount of them are unforced. We have to play smarter.
Now one of our guys can do the offensive efficiency numbers in the last 2 second halves. Gotta believe they are in the 160 range which would be a huge difference if we can stop turning over the ball. Combined with the defense to go from 11 to 2 in the last 10 days , just an average offense gives us a chance. Almost impossible but we just won 2 road games hitting only 3 three pointers in each game. Defies logic.
We don't actually turn the ball over all that much (we are #165 in TO% which is just mediocre). We are #98 in offensive rebounding percentage (pretty good) and #156 in FTR (mediocre). Where we continually fail is.. shooting. We are #358 in effective field goal percentage.

(We did turn the ball over a bunch in some of our recent bad games / halves though)
 
I feel like Caleb is more lockdown than Mag is, at least on non-very small guards. But Mag is a different level in a team sense and is an incredible rebounder as well. And I’d argue he’s still learning the game and becoming more impactful each and every night

They are both excellent - but they stand out at different things. Caleb’s strengths are more subtle but when you stop to consider them, remarkable. His rebounding (despite having the assignment of designated help defender on bail out) should be at the top of the list. Easy to overlook but it’s a huge thing. When your the guy coming over to help, your back is often to the basket when the shot goes up. Mag has had to perform this role more often this year (although it’s less daunting as most rotations without Gavin are all solid on ball perimeter defenders) - Mag’s rebounding has dropped off some though and this is likely why.
 
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We don't actually turn the ball over all that much (we are #165 in TO% which is just mediocre). We are #98 in offensive rebounding percentage (pretty good) and #156 in FTR (mediocre). Where we continually fail is.. shooting. We are #358 in effective field goal percentage.

(We did turn the ball over a bunch in some of our recent bad games / halves though)
Keep us posted when the math gets so bad that we’re officially better off without 3s. We must be getting closer…. Dipped under 28% from 3 on the season. Hyatt the only player with a meaningful number of perimeter attempts over 30%. Yuck
 
Keep us posted when the math gets so bad that we’re officially better off without 3s. We must be getting closer…. Dipped under 28% from 3 on the season. Hyatt the only player with a meaningful number of perimeter attempts over 30%. Yuck
You can’t be officially better off without threes because there’s a game theory element to how the defense plays. We do have a slightly better eFG% on twos though
 
You can’t be officially better off without threes because there’s a game theory element to how the defense plays. We do have a slightly better eFG% on twos though
I mean at some point there’s a break even though right? If we played 5 Wolfs we wouldn’t want any of them chucking up 3 correct?
 
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Simpson is a hell of a defender as well and pound for pound the best rebounder on the team but people love to criticize him. Similarly, the same people tore apart Caleb.
 
I mean at some point there’s a break even though right? If we played 5 Wolfs we wouldn’t want any of them chucking up 3 correct?
At some point, yes, but it’s not as simple as looking at your current shooting percentages. It’s also going to be depend on your shooting percentages relative to each other; since we are pretty much equally atrocious from three and two I don’t see any compelling reason why our optimal strategy would be much different from that of a normal team.
 
It would also depend on how you would perform against alternate defensive strategies; the breaking point for actually not attempting threes would require a completely uncontested three to be less efficient for you than very contested twos.
 
This game was between teams that are outstanding on defense and woeful on offense.Its not surprising the game wasn't decided until the last missed shot by Maryland.In most cases the home team wins especially with the disparity in fouls.There is no question J Williams has been a difference maker in the last two road wins.Rutgers chances for a winning season have improved .
 
This game was between teams that are outstanding on defense and woeful on offense.Its not surprising the game wasn't decided until the last missed shot by Maryland.In most cases the home team wins especially with the disparity in fouls.There is no question J Williams has been a difference maker in the last two road wins.Rutgers chances for a winning season have improved .
I watched mag get crushed to floor and n9 foul called then on the other side of the court they call a ticky tacky foul on us. The cliff foul from a the far away ref was when I said the fix has to be in.
 
Yes! If we had the 175th best offense in the country, we’d be a solid 8/9 seed projection in the tournament right now.

We don’t though, so here we are.
If I didn't had the letters es at the end of my name my whole life people would call me JAM
 
At some point, yes, but it’s not as simple as looking at your current shooting percentages. It’s also going to be depend on your shooting percentages relative to each other; since we are pretty much equally atrocious from three and two I don’t see any compelling reason why our optimal strategy would be much different from that of a normal team.
I mean - we’re bad from 2 but we’re definitely worse from 3. The percentages don’t reflect all the shooting foul calls we’ve drawn on missed 2 pointers wiped from the statistics.
 
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